Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Recommended Posts

Hard not to be- my first go.

winston

gurley

conner

smallwood

evans

ridley

anderson

brate

CHI

Edited by Snorkelson
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I'm all over Winston and Brate.

:yes:

I have four lineups with that pair.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly low-owned guys I'm interested in for tournaments:

Jordan Howard
Bilal Powell
Doug Baldwin
Michael Crabtree
Chris Godwin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Possibly low-owned guys I'm interested in for tournaments:

Jordan Howard
Bilal Powell
Doug Baldwin
Michael Crabtree
Chris Godwin

Read that Crabtree dropped a ton of balls Sunday, so now I'm not so sure about this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I feel the same about Winston as I did Bortles last week- which means he will crush and I wont have him I guess. 

Winston is not good. At all. But he's similar to Ryan Fitzpatrick in that he's good enough to shred a bad defense. And Atlanta might have the worst pass defense in the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Almost impossible not to like Brate at that price tag.  He will be in a lot of lineups and I think is a good cash play.  I suspect many will be all over the ATL-TB for gpp stacks.  I can also see a lot of lower cost stacks coming out of the IND-NYJ game.  I really like the low cost IND receivers, I wanted to try and get one into a cash lineup, but not sure which one so might be too big of a gamble for cash.  I don't play much in gpp tourneys, but considering trying a Luck/Grant/Rogers or Hines stack and coming back the other way with Powell.   

Well, here is my first go of the week at a cash lineup...

Wilson

Gurley (too expensive???  Juicy match up...)

Conner

Jones (He's got to get in the endzone, right???)

Landry 

Coutee (tough D, but 22 targets over the past 2 weeks for a cheap price)

Murray (Fool me once, shame on you...  got burned doing this a couple weeks ago, but I can't resist that match up)

Brate

Seattle

Edited by Galileo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Winston is not good. At all. But he's similar to Ryan Fitzpatrick in that he's good enough to shred a bad defense. And Atlanta might have the worst pass defense in the league.

I think Winston plays on a team with a worse pass D.  Should be a fun game.  

Maybe more of a DK play, but one of the TB rbs might go off considering how many times a rb has gone off vs atl this year. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As far as Brate goes, it actually looks like Atl's best stats are against opposing TEs.  They are 5th best as far as DVOA goes, and McDonald was a dud this week.  I get the 4.5K tag, but what else should I be looking at for stats?

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as Brate goes, it actually looks like Atl's best stats are against opposing TEs.  They are 5th best as far as DVOA goes, and McDonald was a dud this week.  I get the 4.5K tag, but what else should I be looking at for stats?

 

Well considering most every TE I used last weekend busted, might as well only burn $4500 on a bust.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the spirit of contributing more to the thread, especially earlier in the week...

First stab at  THU-MON  LU

  • TB / ATL game stack - hate playing Julio, but he had such a huge game last season at home against the Bucs
  • What do you think of playing Smallwood and Clement together, in order to jam in Gurley and two 8K WRs?
  • Robert Woods only non-concussed Rams WR
  • Stack Eagles RBs with Eagles D, and hope for Giants dud
Jameis Winston	
Wendell Smallwood	
Corey Clement	
Julio Jones	
Mike Evans	
Robert Woods	
Cameron Brate	
Todd Gurley	
Eagles D	

Fun to play around with the double Philly RB build, but that's got to be capping upside, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Church of Iggy Pop said:

In the spirit of contributing more to the thread, especially earlier in the week...

First stab at  THU-MON  LU

  • TB / ATL game stack - hate playing Julio, but he had such a huge game last season at home against the Bucs
  • What do you think of playing Smallwood and Clement together, in order to jam in Gurley and two 8K WRs?
  • Robert Woods only non-concussed Rams WR
  • Stack Eagles RBs with Eagles D, and hope for Giants dud

Jameis Winston	
Wendell Smallwood	
Corey Clement	
Julio Jones	
Mike Evans	
Robert Woods	
Cameron Brate	
Todd Gurley	
Eagles D	

Fun to play around with the double Philly RB build, but that's got to be capping upside, right?

I have used 2 RBs from the same team a few times and had success, but only do it if the price and matchup are right.  Most often it's the NE rbs b/c White catches so many passes, and if they get up they do like to run (despite their reputation against that).   The Philly rbs are both cheap enough that it might be worth a shot.  

What I wonder is if you are paying 14-15K for Gurley/Philly rb if something like White/Yeldon is likely to outscore that combo?  

:shrug:  Just spitballing and talking out loud here.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Well considering most every TE I used last weekend busted, might as well only burn $4500 on a bust.

Very fair point.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as Brate goes, it actually looks like Atl's best stats are against opposing TEs.  They are 5th best as far as DVOA goes, and McDonald was a dud this week.  I get the 4.5K tag, but what else should I be looking at for stats?

You make a compelling argument. I guess the point I'd make in favor of Brate is Winston's tendency to force the ball to Brate in the end zone.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as Brate goes, it actually looks like Atl's best stats are against opposing TEs.  They are 5th best as far as DVOA goes, and McDonald was a dud this week.  I get the 4.5K tag, but what else should I be looking at for stats?

 

Could it be because the WRs are so wide open teams don't bother checking down or throwing underneath?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

You make a compelling argument. I guess the point I'd make in favor of Brate is Winston's tendency to force the ball to Brate in the end zone.

 

1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

Could it be because the WRs are so wide open teams don't bother checking down or throwing underneath?

Both good points.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only have a few bucks left on FD, so I am going to get into a couple Thurs-Mon gpps and roll with my Pats at home vs KC.  

Also have my league that is the Sun-mon slate, and might use Brady for that too.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First attempt at cash

Cam

Marshawn (revenge game?), Gurley

Sanu, Chester Rogers, AB

Brate

J. Howard

Carolina

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm liking a lot of the Colts/Jets game as a pivot stack.  Powell screams GPP gold to me this week and you can pair him with Darnold and save a TON.  Love him.  Same with Ronald Jones as a pivot if you're going Winston.  Not that he catches a lot of passes but he's finally been active, and got more work than Barber last week so maybe he breaks some runs against a soft Atlanta defense.  

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I'm liking a lot of the Colts/Jets game as a pivot stack.  Powell screams GPP gold to me this week and you can pair him with Darnold and save a TON.  Love him.  Same with Ronald Jones as a pivot if you're going Winston.  Not that he catches a lot of passes but he's finally been active, and got more work than Barber last week so maybe he breaks some runs against a soft Atlanta defense.  

I like these calls. I've been too chicken to add Powell and Jones to my GPP lineups, but you're convincing me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I like these calls. I've been too chicken to add Powell and Jones to my GPP lineups, but you're convincing me. 

I'm way more comfortable with Powell than Jones, and I've been doing barely ok this year so you probably shouldn't listen to me ha.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very much thinking about trotting out a 2TE LU for ####s and giggles in a gpp this week.  Here is what I have for my Thurs-Mon placeholder:

Brady - White/Yeldon - J.Brown/Shepard/Gabriel - Gronk/Kelce - Clev.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as Brate goes, it actually looks like Atl's best stats are against opposing TEs.  They are 5th best as far as DVOA goes, and McDonald was a dud this week.  I get the 4.5K tag, but what else should I be looking at for stats?

 

I noticed the DVOA vs TE also.  Pulled the game logs....

W1 Ertz 5-48-0 (2 Ajai TDs Foles passing game a mess)

W2 Thomas 2-10-0 (3 TDs given up to Panthers WRs)

W3 Watson 5-71-0  (3 TDs to NO WR3s...Thomas and Kamara combined for 25 catches and 250 yards lol)

W4 Eifert 4-38-1 (I think this was when he got hurt...300+/3TD day for Dalton)

W5 Pit TEs 4-35-0 (Ben/Ab/JuJu success)

The DVOA vs TE may be a false positive....it looks like teams don't even need to bother with passes to TE.  I would avoid Brate in cash based on both DVOA and Famous Jameis, but would not be afraid to include him in TB stacks in GPPs.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

I noticed the DVOA vs TE also.  Pulled the game logs....

W1 Ertz 5-48-0 (2 Ajai TDs Foles passing game a mess)

W2 Thomas 2-10-0 (3 TDs given up to Panthers WRs)

W3 Watson 5-71-0  (3 TDs to NO WR3s...Thomas and Kamara combined for 25 catches and 250 yards lol)

W4 Eifert 4-38-1 (I think this was when he got hurt...300+/3TD day for Dalton)

W5 Pit TEs 4-35-0 (Ben/Ab/JuJu success)

The DVOA vs TE may be a false positive....it looks like teams don't even need to bother with passes to TE.  I would avoid Brate in cash based on both DVOA and Famous Jameis, but would not be afraid to include him in TB stacks in GPPs.

 

Nice breakdown.  I guess as far as the bolded goes - will TB either?  It's not like they lack options with Evans, Godwin, and D.Jax.   But I guess like Jdogg pointed out, I think Winston is prone to feed targets to Evans and Brate a bit.  Worth it here b/c he's 4.5k on FD, but not sure I like it quite as much on DK.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anybody look at/use air yard info and stats?  If so, how do you use them for dfs?   I never really looked hard at them, but I am poking around their website now.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Nice breakdown.  I guess as far as the bolded goes - will TB either?  It's not like they lack options with Evans, Godwin, and D.Jax.   But I guess like Jdogg pointed out, I think Winston is prone to feed targets to Evans and Brate a bit.  Worth it here b/c he's 4.5k on FD, but not sure I like it quite as much on DK.  

I have a milly entry with Jameis/Evans/DJax/Ridley and one with Ryan/Ridley/DJax/Hooper.  Will probably have another with Jameis/Evans/Brate/Julio just so I can punch myself in the face for investing $27 in a Jameis dependent shootout when it busts.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

I have a milly entry with Jameis/Evans/DJax/Ridley and one with Ryan/Ridley/DJax/Hooper.  Will probably have another with Jameis/Evans/Brate/Julio just so I can punch myself in the face for investing $27 in a Jameis dependent shootout when it busts.

 

:lol:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I'm way more comfortable with Powell than Jones, and I've been doing barely ok this year so you probably shouldn't listen to me ha.  

I added Powell and Jones to two different cheap lineups. So not much risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm looking at adding some Darrell Jackson and Chris Godwin shares as potential sleepers in tournaments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

I have a milly entry with Jameis/Evans/DJax/Ridley and one with Ryan/Ridley/DJax/Hooper.  Will probably have another with Jameis/Evans/Brate/Julio just so I can punch myself in the face for investing $27 in a Jameis dependent shootout when it busts.

I'm usually too chicken to have erratic players spread across multiple teams. But I am taking a chance of Jameis Winston on a few teams this week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Very much thinking about trotting out a 2TE LU for ####s and giggles in a gpp this week.  Here is what I have for my Thurs-Mon placeholder:

Brady - White/Yeldon - J.Brown/Shepard/Gabriel - Gronk/Kelce - Clev.  

If you're going with 2 TE I think 1 has to be Ertz. I like him more than either of those this week and he is cheaper.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

If you're going with 2 TE I think 1 has to be Ertz. I like him more than either of those this week and he is cheaper.

After looking at things and salaries, this might again be a dk idea.  Just liked it b/c they are in the same game in case they shoot it out.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Very much thinking about trotting out a 2TE LU for ####s and giggles in a gpp this week.  Here is what I have for my Thurs-Mon placeholder:

Brady - White/Yeldon - J.Brown/Shepard/Gabriel - Gronk/Kelce - Clev.  

My two te card last week cost me as they combined for 5 points. I cashed with something like 168. Swap that flex for golladay or ekeler or other similar prices guys I played elsewhere and I get a decent payout. I wish someone had talked me off that ledge....

Edited by Snorkelson
Although I wasn’t shooting the moon with gronk/kelce
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

My two te card last week cost me as they combined for 5 points. I cashed with something like 168. Swap that flex for golladay or ekeler or other similar prices guys I played elsewhere and I get a decent payout. I wish someone had talked me off that ledge....

If you did hit on both TEs in a gpp it could give you enough differential to take down a gpp if your other picks were good too. Like last week if you had Ebron and Ertz you likely did pretty well.

This is where the pros or people who spend $200+ a week have an advantage. They can afford doing a weird lineup or 2 in the hundreds they are playing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More rambling, and I will post this in both threads (why don't more of you play on DK??!!) 

I THINK I understand what the site is getting at, and it so happened that one of the podcasts I listened to yesterday also went on a little bit about air yards, and how they are looking at that for info, especially for gpps and identifying underpriced players.  On their site, they have a rating that is based on targets and their share of air yds.  Here were the highest rated WRs (in order:

Julio, Hopkins, OBJ, Brown, Thielen, C.Davis, Landry, Evans, Green, A.Rob, Diggs, Cooks, M.Thomas, Woods, Adams, J.Brown, Allen, Enunwa, Funchess, Tate, Golladay, Hill, Boyd, Stills, Gabriel, Kupp, JuJu, Jeffrey, K.Benjamin, Sanders, and Moncrief.  

 

On top of that, they have an efficiency rating that values how well they are doing with their targets and catches.  On the site, they said this usually regresses to the mean, which I guess is about .7 or so.  From the above list, I looked at which receivers are over that number a bit, and could be coming down to earth a tad, and which receivers are below that and could be seeing bigger games in the future if they become more efficient with the targets (or they could just suck and stay inefficient I guess).  Those names were:

Far above .7:  Thielen, Diggs, Cooks, M.Thomas, K.Allen, Tate, Boyd, Kupp, JuJu

Could see some positive regression:  A.Brown, Landry, Evans, A.Rob, J.Brown, Stills, K.Benjamin, and Moncrief.  

 

 

Long story short, what I get out of this is maybe that on FD guys like Evans, Landry, A.Rob, and J.Brown might be underpriced and/or worth gpp shots and somebody like Thielen might not be quite worth that salary tag?

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did the same for TE.  The highest rated TEs (in order) were:

Ertz, Kelce, Cook, Kittle, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Gronk, Doyle, Graham, Njoku, Walker, Reed, Burton, Swain.  

 

The ones that stood out as being inefficient on the year and could see some positive regression were:  Kelce, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Gronk, Graham, Njoku. 

So on that list, and FD pricing Seals-Jones and Njoku are bargins.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the guys that are averaging 20 touches/game:

Gurley, Mixon, Zeke, McCaffrey, Conner, Hyde, Barkley, Gordon.  

 Gurley just gets so many RZ attempts.    He has 32.  The next on the list are Michel, Hyde, and Lynch with 17,15, and 14.  

 

Just below that list in touches/game:  Hunt, Howard, D.Johnson, Lynch, Carson, Michel

Edited by KarmaPolice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind that Michel has 6 RZ attempts in each of the last 2 games.    KC's run D is terrible, but they are usually up so big in the 1st 1/2 that it doesn't become a factor.  If you go with the Belichick attacks the other team's weakness approach, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that they switch to one of those weird weeks where they come out and go all run, or if they keep it close they keep running (didn't they do this to Indy in the Manning years?).  They like the kid, and I think Michel could have a huge game soon.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Long story short, what I get out of this is maybe that on FD guys like Evans, Landry, A.Rob, and J.Brown might be underpriced and/or worth gpp shots and somebody like Thielen might not be quite worth that salary tag?

So guys that are productive on short passes aren't as price-worthy as guys that catch long ones?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

So guys that are productive on short passes aren't as price-worthy as guys that catch long ones?

Its total air yards, so I assume it incorporates all types of passes.  Stills and Landry are both on there, but are different receivers.  

I think what you are asking about is aDOT.  From my understanding, FD scoring leans more to the long bomb wrs as well since it depends more on yards and TDs. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Anyone playing the single game tonight? 

Yes. Hard to get a 2 qb lineup in. Having trouble with my mvp. Deciding between Beckham, Wentz and Manning.  Will likely have 3 different lineups alternating those 3 at mvp

Edited by Cabby
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Cabby said:

Yes. Hard to get a 2 qb lineup in. Having trouble with my mvp. Deciding between Beckham, Wentz and Manning.  Will likely have 3 different lineups alternating those 3 at mvp

I haven't done much of the single game tickets. Is it standard to use both QBs on the card? I was thinking about Sequon or Odell as the MVP, but I don't know if that's smart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I haven't done much of the single game tickets. Is it standard to use both QBs on the card? I was thinking about Sequon or Odell as the MVP, but I don't know if that's smart.

I have done very well with double QB on single games but I can’t seem to make it work tonight. 

First LU: OBJ (MVP), Ertz, Barkley, Smallwood and Gibson. Paying premium on 4 and using Gibson as a throw in. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

I have done very well with double QB on single games but I can’t seem to make it work tonight. 

First LU: OBJ (MVP), Ertz, Barkley, Smallwood and Gibson. Paying premium on 4 and using Gibson as a throw in. 

I like it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First LU for the weekend without doing any research. 

Winston

Powell, Mixon, Michel

OBJ, Evans, Baldwin

Brate

Bears

TB/ATL game is obviously one you want a piece of. I can’t believe how cheap Brate is. He might be the highest owned cash TE, lol. There is just no reason not to take him. Mixon and Michel are both hitting their stride. I could see Michel getting 2 TDs easy. OBJ always kills my birds - I like him to build off his game last week. The Eagles secondary is awful. Awful. Baldwin is my flier. I’m hoping his talking to the media will get something going. 1 target? Your best receiver who you have been without all year? He and Russ are practically joined at the hip. And the Bears is self explanatory. Highest scoring D going against the vaunted Dolphin’s offense. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having spent some times setting lineups and reshuffling due to second thoughts and injuries, some week 6 thoughts:

  • Not sure what to think about Russel Wilson despite the great matchup, so I'm avoiding him
  • However, I do like Chris Carson vs. leaky Raiders run D
  • Also own a few shares of Marshawn
  • Not heavily invested in Pitt vs. Cincy, but I do love Mixon
  • I have one Cousins ticket, but that'll be it. I fear Minn will run all over AZ
  • I own a few Phillip Lindsay shares in what should be catch up mode for Denver
  • Chester Rodgers dirt cheap and a nice tournament play
  • I'm in on Julio Jones on three lineups
  • Edelman could have a big game Sunday

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

First LU for the weekend without doing any research. 

Winston

Powell, Mixon, Michel

OBJ, Evans, Baldwin

Brate

Bears

TB/ATL game is obviously one you want a piece of. I can’t believe how cheap Brate is. He might be the highest owned cash TE, lol. There is just no reason not to take him. Mixon and Michel are both hitting their stride. I could see Michel getting 2 TDs easy. OBJ always kills my birds - I like him to build off his game last week. The Eagles secondary is awful. Awful. Baldwin is my flier. I’m hoping his talking to the media will get something going. 1 target? Your best receiver who you have been without all year? He and Russ are practically joined at the hip. And the Bears is self explanatory. Highest scoring D going against the vaunted Dolphin’s offense. 

I like it. Brate is ridiculously cheap and should be heavily owned in tournaments. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.