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One thing I just heard on yet another podcast is that Oak just left for London today from the west coast? 

Usually those teams have an east coast game the week before and head over after to adjust.  They just brought it up b/c of the narrative of west coast teams playing on the east coast in an early game not doing well, and this is an extreme version of that.  

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52 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Also looks like rain and storms could be in play tonight

I was just coming in to ask about this. Thoughts on fading the passing offense in favor of the RBs tonight?

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8 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

If you did hit on both TEs in a gpp it could give you enough differential to take down a gpp if your other picks were good too. Like last week if you had Ebron and Ertz you likely did pretty well.

This is where the pros or people who spend $200+ a week have an advantage. They can afford doing a weird lineup or 2 in the hundreds they are playing.

Nope.  I did 141 lineups last week and all of them had a dog.  The week I had Ridley we he was huge, every one of those lineups had a dog.  Entering more lineups just forces you to enter less than optimism lineups.

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7 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I did the same for TE.  The highest rated TEs (in order) were:

Ertz, Kelce, Cook, Kittle, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Gronk, Doyle, Graham, Njoku, Walker, Reed, Burton, Swain.  

 

The ones that stood out as being inefficient on the year and could see some positive regression were:  Kelce, Seals-Jones, Ebron, Gronk, Graham, Njoku. 

So on that list, and FD pricing Seals-Jones and Njoku are bargins.  

His donut last week was tasty.

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12 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

:shrug:  Just relaying stats I see.  

To be fair, Seals-Jones should see plenty of targets. That's all you can ask for. 

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22 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I was just coming in to ask about this. Thoughts on fading the passing offense in favor of the RBs tonight?

???

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4 hours ago, Cabby said:

Yes. Hard to get a 2 qb lineup in.

Last Monday, I could only get 2 QBs by essentially fading Kamara and Michael Thomas, both of which paid off.

Don't think I can do the same approach this week, because I want OBJ.

My thought:   OBJ (MVP)  / Manning / Shepard / Smallwood / Clement

 

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24 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Entering more lineups just forces you to enter less than optimism lineups.

:goodposting:THIS.

I need this message pounded into my head each week, because each week I invariably dilute my results by adding more and more players until I really haven't taken much of a stand overall.

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32 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Entering more lineups just forces you to enter less than optimism lineups.

Not sure I get it. Could you elaborate?

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1 minute ago, Church of Iggy Pop said:

:goodposting:THIS.

I need this message pounded into my head each week, because each week I invariably dilute my results by adding more and more players until I really haven't taken much of a stand overall.

How diverse do you guys do your LUs?  I don't play 100s of LUs,  but wouldn't you try to still take a stand on a core 10-12 guys and shuffle odd guys around them?

Ie this week.  Say you really liked Winston/Brate/Julio/Gurley/Michel/Kupp this week, and are doing 100 LUS.  Do you lock them in and just rotate volatile positions in like DT and WR3 for 40-50 LUS?  Or do you prefer to use 8-10 QBs, 12 RBs, and just shuffle them up?

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

How diverse do you guys do your LUs? 

I play about 10-15 tickets every week, and I like to diversify my risk across those cards. So for example, even though I like Winston a ton this week, I only have him on three cards. I think it's great to be committed and take a stand, but fact is we really can't predict future results. 

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19 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

???

I just looked on RG, and there doesn't look to be wind which is more concerning than rain, and they said it looked like the heaviest might miss the Meadowlands to the east.  Maybe a mild bump down to the passing game, but not enough to jump off the passing attacks fully?

 

(it just seems like every time I worry about the rain/weather it bites me in the ### and the game goes off)

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

(it just seems like every time I worry about the rain/weather it bites me in the ### and the game goes off)

True. Some people say rain can help the offense because the WR knows where he's going to make his cuts on that wet turf and the DB does not.

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1 minute ago, jdoggydogg said:

I play about 10-15 tickets every week, and I like to diversify my risk across those cards. So for example, even though I like Winston a ton this week, I only have him on three cards. I think it's great to be committed and take a stand, but fact is we really can't predict future results. 

@jdoggydogg - do you have all of those LUs in the same gpp, or are you doing SEs?

 

 

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@jdoggydogg - do you have all of those LUs in the same gpp, or are you doing SEs?

Nope. I spend around $25 to $30 every week on single ticket tournaments. I mostly stay away from the multi-ticket tournaments - as the sharks will almost always win those.

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2 hours ago, Elevencents said:

I have done very well with double QB on single games but I can’t seem to make it work tonight. 

First LU: OBJ (MVP), Ertz, Barkley, Smallwood and Gibson. Paying premium on 4 and using Gibson as a throw in. 

Scott Simonson is a cheap upside option I'm considering with Engram and Ellison out. I don't know which Giants stud to pivot away from to fit both QBs in the lineup though.

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Odell is going to be in at least two-thirds of the lineups and probably 80% MVP in those. Guess I have to pivot from that to try and snipe position 1.

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10 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Scott Simonson is a cheap upside option I'm considering with Engram and Ellison out. I don't know which Giants stud to pivot away from to fit both QBs in the lineup though.

I didn’t know Ellison was out. Good look. :yes:

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4 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Odell is going to be in at least two-thirds of the lineups and probably 80% MVP in those. Guess I have to pivot from that to try and snipe position 1.

Half for sure. I’m just doing 50/50 so not worried about that. 

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4 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Half for sure. I’m just doing 50/50 so not worried about that. 

Eli/Wentz/OBJ/Smallwood/Simonson is 60,500. I won't believe that's not by design. :lol:

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17 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

Nope. I spend around $25 to $30 every week on single ticket tournaments. I mostly stay away from the multi-ticket tournaments - as the sharks will almost always win those.

Gotcha.  I had a little success in MLB this year and on DK for NFL doing the 3max gpps and doing the same stack/core in all 3 and just pivoting off of a couple plays.  Little bit more boom/bust but if you get your core right, the winning weeks should still offset the dud weeks.   So last week I tried 3 $3 3max, 3 $1 3max, and then another $5 in the bigger gpps like the 25cent and $1 ones.  I kept my Minn/Philly game stack in all 3of the $1 ones, did 3 of the Pitt/Atl game in the $3 ones, and did my weirder ideas for the huge entry gpps.   Had a decent gpp week over there.  

I assume you want to stay ahead of the field on the players you like and take a stand one way or the other.  Ie Brate - if you absolutely love him and think that he is going to be 40% owned in gpps, you probably should have him in 4+ of your LUs or you are not keeping up with the rest of the LUs if he does have a good day.    I know this is the strategy if you are putting 10LUs in the same gpp, but I would assume that it would apply to your overall LUs as well if you are spreading them out since the ownership on players usually doesn't vary a ton over the different gpps.   I could be wrong here, and would love to know if I am thinking of this incorrectly.  

 

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6 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Gotcha.  I had a little success in MLB this year and on DK for NFL doing the 3max gpps and doing the same stack/core in all 3 and just pivoting off of a couple plays.  Little bit more boom/bust but if you get your core right, the winning weeks should still offset the dud weeks.   So last week I tried 3 $3 3max, 3 $1 3max, and then another $5 in the bigger gpps like the 25cent and $1 ones.  I kept my Minn/Philly game stack in all 3of the $1 ones, did 3 of the Pitt/Atl game in the $3 ones, and did my weirder ideas for the huge entry gpps.   Had a decent gpp week over there.  

I assume you want to stay ahead of the field on the players you like and take a stand one way or the other.  Ie Brate - if you absolutely love him and think that he is going to be 40% owned in gpps, you probably should have him in 4+ of your LUs or you are not keeping up with the rest of the LUs if he does have a good day.    I know this is the strategy if you are putting 10LUs in the same gpp, but I would assume that it would apply to your overall LUs as well if you are spreading them out since the ownership on players usually doesn't vary a ton over the different gpps.   I could be wrong here, and would love to know if I am thinking of this incorrectly.  

 

You should take a stand on whether a player you like is rated above or below their projected ownership and either take more or less of that percentage in your respective lineups.

Edited by hagmania
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22 minutes ago, hagmania said:

Eli/Wentz/OBJ/Smallwood/Simonson is 60,500. I won't believe that's not by design. :lol:

OBJ/Barkley/Ertz/Smallwood/Simonson. Prob the kiss of death but no way I see this losing in a 50/50 :ph34r:

And since I’m a major proponent of double QB I am tailing you as well :wub:

Edited by Elevencents
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3 minutes ago, hagmania said:

You should take a stand on whether a player you like is rated above or below their projected ownership and either take more or less of that in your percentage of respective lineups.

That's what I thought.  A lot of what the podcasts and articles talk about is being overweight/underweight/even with the field as far as ownership goes.

Is this correct whether you are doing 10 entries in the same LU or doing 10 SE LUs?  

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

That's what I thought.  A lot of what the podcasts and articles talk about is being overweight/underweight/even with the field as far as ownership goes.

Is this correct whether you are doing 10 entries in the same LU or doing 10 SE LUs?  

I'm gonna be honest I still have a lot to learn and don't want to lead you wrong. I'm just going to say I'm not sure of the nuance.

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11 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

More rambling, and I will post this in both threads (why don't more of you play on DK??!!) 

I THINK I understand what the site is getting at, and it so happened that one of the podcasts I listened to yesterday also went on a little bit about air yards, and how they are looking at that for info, especially for gpps and identifying underpriced players.  On their site, they have a rating that is based on targets and their share of air yds.  Here were the highest rated WRs (in order:

Julio, Hopkins, OBJ, Brown, Thielen, C.Davis, Landry, Evans, Green, A.Rob, Diggs, Cooks, M.Thomas, Woods, Adams, J.Brown, Allen, Enunwa, Funchess, Tate, Golladay, Hill, Boyd, Stills, Gabriel, Kupp, JuJu, Jeffrey, K.Benjamin, Sanders, and Moncrief.  

 

FWIW, I looked further at this list for FD since yds and TDs are key.  Of the above list, the WRs that have an aDOT of 10+ AND are averaging 1+ RZ target a week are:

OBJ, Brown, Landry, Green, Cooks, Adams.      Seems like Landry is a damn good value compared to the other guys.  

 

in addition, the WRs that are seeing 1+RZ target/g from the list: Hopkins, Thielen, C.Davis, Enunwa, Kupp, JuJu.  

WRs on the list with an aDOT of 10+:  Julio, Evans, A.Rob, Woods, J.Brown, Funchess, Golladay, T.Hill, Stills, Jeffrey, K.Benjamin, Moncrief

 

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Caught a good one tonite.  50 $9 tickets (regular tourney) = $450.  Only $217.50 in entires (870).  I did 16 entires or $4, 5.7% will cash, 1 Smallwood and 1 Ertz.  20% had Barkley so it could be an uphill battle.

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$34 in play tonight netted 5 tickets or $45 value.  I had no Barkley in my single game lineups.  Double QB broke even for me on this slate.  Only ran on three lineups and didn't play much because it didn't fit the model with Barkley being 10x the player Manning is.

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

 

5 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

His donut last week was tasty.

:shrug:  Just relaying stats I see.  

 

 

There's lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Seriously though, I appreciate it.  Great read and gives me something to think about.  I don't watch Arizona games so Seal Jones could be on the edge of a break through or chasing raccoons between fleshlight sessions for all I know.

 

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6 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

$34 in play tonight netted 5 tickets or $45 value.  I had no Barkley in my single game lineups.  Double QB broke even for me on this slate.  Only ran on three lineups and didn't play much because it didn't fit the model with Barkley being 10x the player Manning is.

Had a mere $3 in and got $4 out last night with 2/3 of my entries cashing, despite having engram in and being busy last night and not checking in before the game. 

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4 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Jets beat up in the secondary and TY hurt. Rogers good value at $5700. 

Robby a is also a good value vs depleted Indy secondary, $5500. 

That game could stink too.

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24 minutes ago, Elevencents said:

Jets beat up in the secondary and TY hurt. Rogers good value at $5700. 

Is Claiborne hurt? He's one of the best in the game right now.

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3rd week is the charm! I've entered 8-12 contests each thursday night game for the last 3 weeks and finally hit. The $0.25 contests to win a $9 entry. I went 0, 0, 3, so I spent around $8 for $27 in entries. Now I just have to figure out a solid GPP play this week.

I rolled with Saquon (MVP), Wentz, Jeffrey, Clement, Ellison in 2 of them. Didn't realize he was out, but still managed to stay top 30 out of 5,000+. 

Never won a ticket before, do they sometimes show up delayed? I had 3 win, but so far only 2 have showed up. 

 

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Man, I think due to the tie I might not get a ticket. Tied for 120th, top 125 get tickets, next rank is 158. I think we each just got paid out $1.42, which sucks.

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30 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

Man, I think due to the tie I might not get a ticket. Tied for 120th, top 125 get tickets, next rank is 158. I think we each just got paid out $1.42, which sucks.

Would your score at 6x have put you at 6x in a regular gpp?

Either way, it was a good night for you.  Congrats.

Edited by BassNBrew

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My current version of the truth for cash game...

Dalton Winston

Gurley

Conner

J. Jones

Landry

Rogers

Brate

Murray Powell

Seattle

indecision...indecision...   I want to see Dodds' value charts before I settle...love that tool.

Edited by Galileo

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I am taking my Pats stand on DK.  I have a handful of LUs in the Thurs-Mon and had 50% of Barkley, so going to have fun with that.  Here is what I changed my 2 Mon-Thurs LUs on FD to:

Mayfield - Barkley/Gurley/Conner - Landry/J.Brown/Coutee - Brate - Pitts (still thinking about D)

Mahomes - White/Carson/Powell - Evans/Sanu/Watkins - Kelce - Denv (again, debating cheap D)

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18 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

3rd week is the charm! I've entered 8-12 contests each thursday night game for the last 3 weeks and finally hit. The $0.25 contests to win a $9 entry. I went 0, 0, 3, so I spent around $8 for $27 in entries. Now I just have to figure out a solid GPP play this week.

I rolled with Saquon (MVP), Wentz, Jeffrey, Clement, Ellison in 2 of them. Didn't realize he was out, but still managed to stay top 30 out of 5,000+. 

Never won a ticket before, do they sometimes show up delayed? I had 3 win, but so far only 2 have showed up. 

 

Look at the date, I entered a satellite last week and won, ticket is for the 21st. It doesn’t show up anywhere in the meantime. Sounds like they paid out the ties tho, that stinks. 

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15 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Are the 2 wrs playing? If not, I would almost think that Gurley would be even safer than normal.  

Looks like everyone is cleared. 

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My FD cash lineup currently is

Winston

Gurley

Conner

John Brown

Boyd

Enunwa

Brate

Mixon

Bears

Waiting to hear if Cook and Crowell are in or out. If they are out I'll likely go Powell and Murray and spend up at wr

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2 hours ago, Shermanator said:

My FD cash lineup currently is

Winston

Gurley

Conner

John Brown

Boyd

Enunwa

Brate

Mixon

Bears

Waiting to hear if Cook and Crowell are in or out. If they are out I'll likely go Powell and Murray and spend up at wr

I have something similar. Using Kupp, Melvin, Howard, Seattle instead of Conner, Mixon, Enunwa, Bears. But I have all of those guys in at least one of my other 2 cash lineups. 

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I'm going to type a name for tournament cards for you fellow night owls:

Ito Smith

I have a feeling...

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