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4 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I'm going to type a name for tournament cards for you fellow night owls:

Ito Smith

I have a feeling...

This kinda boom or bust.  He’s not going to get that many carries but I bet he’ll get most or all of the goal line carries.  

Its weird to root for a tackle on the 1yd line, but that’s what you need for Ito to pay off.

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Just noticed that the single game entries I entered for the cincy-pit game are only 1/2 full. Wonder if this is normal?

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Just noticed that the single game entries I entered for the cincy-pit game are only 1/2 full. Wonder if this is normal?

I’ve noticed that they don’t fill anywhere near as often as full roster games. 

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

Just how owned do we think Winston is going to be in cash and gpps today?

I think he will he highly owned, along with maybe dalton. I think he struggles maybe, like someone who has skipped preseason. I know he’s been practicing but could be rusty. I’ve only filled out one gpp and went with trubisky. I’ve got more focus on the single game entries, but still have $10 to kick around as game time approaches. It may be a week to pay up for a qb.

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

I think he will he highly owned, along with maybe dalton. I think he struggles maybe, like someone who has skipped preseason. I know he’s been practicing but could be rusty. I’ve only filled out one gpp and went with trubisky. I’ve got more focus on the single game entries, but still have $10 to kick around as game time approaches. It may be a week to pay up for a qb.

Ownership projections are probably the only thing I miss about paying for info on here or other sites.  I get the feeling that the answer is probably TOO owned, but not sure.  Just think that in gpps with as crazy as the scoring has been in the league this year, it's probably not worth being on a QB that is going to be 20/%+ owned.  

 

ETA:  rotowire has a free optimizer, and their projections have Winston at 12%.  Not as high as I thought.  Their projected highest players were Coleman, Jones, Conner, Evans.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Ugh.  Michel a game time decision and just saw that Crowell is expected to play.  

Time to do some shuffling.

Dalvin inactive

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15 minutes ago, chet said:

Murray a must start?

I added a lineup with him in it. He hasn't done a ton when given the opportunity so I didnt go crazy.

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18 minutes ago, chet said:

Murray a must start?

I don't think so, I've heard that song before, but he's made his way into one of my main lineups and some GPPs going against the Cards.  

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Hope you guys saved some ammo for all the overlay that was hanging around today.  Cash app only 72% full.  Ticket contests barely over 50%.

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39 minutes ago, Cabby said:

I'm done after this week... 

Might be my worst dfs week yet.  Main lu is rocking 55 pts, with Winston's 30 or so.  

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10 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Might be my worst dfs week yet.  Main lu is rocking 55 pts, with Winston's 30 or so.  

Ouch. I've got 129 with just Gurly left who is 88% owned and only 14 over cashline. Going to be close.

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So far decent.  Have so much stuff going it's hard know who to root for.  Optimizer said Gurley/Gordon/Conner which all hit.

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160ish with my cash like lineup with Kupp and Gurley going.  Had the Cleveland D for -1 :bag: 

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7 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Cashed 10 of 23 Milly teams.

99 in, $242 out plus another 10 $9 tickets.

Nice! I think I'm done for awhile.

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Another cash gpp only filling to 50%.  It's like Easter and Christmas combined around here.  

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7 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

What do you mean by “cash gpp”?

Non-ticket.  Really should just say gpp.

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On 10/12/2018 at 3:07 PM, Galileo said:

My current version of the truth for cash game...

Dalton Winston

Gurley

Conner

J. Jones

Landry

Rogers

Brate

Murray Powell

Seattle

indecision...indecision...   I want to see Dodds' value charts before I settle...love that tool.

I ended up swapping out Rogers for Coutee and his whopping 4.8 pts (nice move :rolleyes:) and I was too busy this morning or I would have taken Powell out...should have stuck with Murray.  Oh well. The Winston worked out.  The line up I played ended up at 152.4 which was good enough to hold on and cash in all my 50/50 entries, even with Coutee, Landry, and Powell's dud performances.  $30 in...$54 out.  Two winning weeks in a row has allowed me to build my bank roll back up over this season's starting value.  Back in black!!!

Edited by Galileo
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9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Non-ticket.  Really should just say gpp.

What price levels are u talking about? I was on there after 12:50 and didnt see much that stood out. I don’t look long at the ticket contests though.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Another cash gpp only filling to 50%.  It's like Easter and Christmas combined around here.  

Nice.  Hey, would you mind calling me next week... :P

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Trend continues, down half what I entered today. My 2 cash (plus-ish) lineups won nothing. 

I’ll keep grinding but this is getting lame. Maybe it would just be better for me to play some Gpps every week and have fun. But it just seems like that will be a slow drain. 

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8 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

Trend continues, down half what I entered today. My 2 cash (plus-ish) lineups won nothing. 

I’ll keep grinding but this is getting lame. Maybe it would just be better for me to play some Gpps every week and have fun. But it just seems like that will be a slow drain. 

Not sure why you are playing cash when the gpps having been cashing lower.  The Milly was 137.4.  The $2.22 was 131.1 and had $9,500 in overlay on a $100k pot.  

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2 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Not sure why you are playing cash when the gpps having been cashing lower.  The Milly was 137.4.  The $2.22 was 131.1 and had $9,500 in overlay on a $100k pot.  

I cashed $6 in the $2.22. 

I don’t know why. I guess I just like doing what I’m comfortable with and the trend will end. Hasn’t been every week right? 4 out of 6? 

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Another cash gpp only filling to 50%.  It's like Easter and Christmas combined around here.  

I still don't know how you find these.  Every time I have tried to get in a gpp at the last minute that doesn't seem to be filling, it magically ends up filling at the last second, or very close to full.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Not sure why you are playing cash when the gpps having been cashing lower.  The Milly was 137.4.  The $2.22 was 131.1 and had $9,500 in overlay on a $100k pot.  

Yeah, huge difference this week. I think almost everyone is building crazy-### lineups in the names of “uniqueness” and “variability”, so you get a TON of garbage lineups. I’ve been building my cash lineups (I’m not entirely sure what is meant by “cash plus”) and running them in some triples, leagues, and GPPs too. I really need to scale back on the leagues and triples. The gpp cutlines appear significantly below triples every week. 

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4 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Yeah, huge difference this week. I think almost everyone is building crazy-### lineups in the names of “uniqueness” and “variability”, so you get a TON of garbage lineups. I’ve been building my cash lineups (I’m not entirely sure what is meant by “cash plus”) and running them in some triples, leagues, and GPPs too. I really need to scale back on the leagues and triples. The gpp cutlines appear significantly below triples every week. 

I've been playing 90% of my Milly lineups like cash and cashing at about a 50% rate on the year.  Would probably be better but I sucker myself into few  Cam/DJMoore and Carr/Cooper lineups every week thinking that is the ticket to win big.

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6 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

Yeah, huge difference this week. I think almost everyone is building crazy-### lineups in the names of “uniqueness” and “variability”, so you get a TON of garbage lineups. I’ve been building my cash lineups (I’m not entirely sure what is meant by “cash plus”) and running them in some triples, leagues, and GPPs too. I really need to scale back on the leagues and triples. The gpp cutlines appear significantly below triples every week. 

Was that the key in the past though?   Not to get too crazy, but it does feel like the chalk is hitting a bit more often and a bit heavier than even last year.  I am sure that is a bit of why I am getting crushed - I usually try to find pivots in gpps b/c part of what I enjoy is trying to find the odd plays off the chalk guys.  That's why I leaned gpp over cash in the first place.  

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It's pretty small scale, but I was able to turn 3 weeks of $0.25 Thursday entries ($8) into 2 tickets this week, and cashed in both ($35 total). Not a huge amount, but 4x entry is pretty sweet for me. I used the Bears D in both lineups after hearing Brock was in, and pulled the Ravens, so I could have cashed a little higher, but nothing crazy. I didn't take many risks, and I tinkered too much. I pulled Cohen, Murray, Boyd, and Hooper from 1 lineup. I still cashed, so I shouldn't be complaining, but I don't even want to know how well I could have done.

Also, was in a Draft App tournament and made it to the finals, but got 2nd because Mahomes and Hunt had a great 2nd half, and McCaffrey had his worst week.  Again, shouldn't complain about turning $5 into $300, but was so close to $500! The "what ifs" are tough in Daily. 

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2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

It's pretty small scale, but I was able to turn 3 weeks of $0.25 Thursday entries ($8) into 2 tickets this week, and cashed in both ($35 total). Not a huge amount, but 4x entry is pretty sweet for me. I used the Bears D in both lineups after hearing Brock was in, and pulled the Ravens, so I could have cashed a little higher, but nothing crazy. I didn't take many risks, and I tinkered too much. I pulled Cohen, Murray, Boyd, and Hooper from 1 lineup. I still cashed, so I shouldn't be complaining, but I don't even want to know how well I could have done.

Also, was in a Draft App tournament and made it to the finals, but got 2nd because Mahomes and Hunt had a great 2nd half, and McCaffrey had his worst week.  Again, shouldn't complain about turning $5 into $300, but was so close to $500! The "what ifs" are tough in Daily. 

Now use that money to enter ticket contests with overlay and turn it into 20-30 tickets for this weekend.

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Tonight has double QB written all over it.  

Also have 10 $9 tickets for tonight I just found out about.  Not sure I can come up with 10 lineups from tonights mess.

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7 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Tonight has double QB written all over it.  

Also have 10 $9 tickets for tonight I just found out about.  Not sure I can come up with 10 lineups from tonights mess.

You have me intrigued.  Curious as to who you are filling out roster with. I tried a roster with 2qb's and Kittle.  I was left with Kendricks and Celek. Perhaps I should back off Kittle

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19 minutes ago, Cabby said:

You have me intrigued.  Curious as to who you are filling out roster with. I tried a roster with 2qb's and Kittle.  I was left with Kendricks and Celek. Perhaps I should back off Kittle

Jones/Juszcxyk/Montgomery OR Williams

Juszcxyk/Gould/Crosby

Note - These are lineups set up to target ticket contests with overlay..  I'm not shooting for a top score, just something that will finish in the 60% to 80% range in contest that are a little more expensive and have more tickets available.  Also assuming Brieda is out so I may need to revisit this closer to game time and pivot off Juszcxyk.

If I was trying to win a gpp, I would be dumpster diving for Kendricks/Celek and trying to work in a more expensive 3rd player. In this case, I think you have to stick with one GB RB and hit the right one.

 

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5 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Jones/Juszcxyk/Montgomery OR Williams

Juszcxyk/Gould/Crosby

Note - These are lineups set up to target ticket contests with overlay..  I'm not shooting for a top score, just something that will finish in the 60% to 80% range in contest that are a little more expensive and have more tickets available.  Also assuming Brieda is out so I may need to revisit this closer to game time and pivot off Juszcxyk.

If I was trying to win a gpp, I would be dumpster diving for Kendricks/Celek and trying to work in a more expensive 3rd player. In this case, I think you have to stick with one GB RB and hit the right one.

 

What do you mean a little more expensive?  Can you point to a specific contest?

I'm filtered FREE to $50 and everything is offering 1 ticket except for some contests $1 and under.

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Was that the key in the past though?   Not to get too crazy, but it does feel like the chalk is hitting a bit more often and a bit heavier than even last year.  I am sure that is a bit of why I am getting crushed - I usually try to find pivots in gpps b/c part of what I enjoy is trying to find the odd plays off the chalk guys.  That's why I leaned gpp over cash in the first place.  

I don’t know. I think there’s a tendency over time for people to move too far w/ anything. It seems like I’m seeing (always a suspect qualifier I know) more ridiculous lineups than in the past.  I know Mariota, for example, COULD have theoretically gone off and if you had him his low percentage would have won you lots of money. But it was such a ridiculous low percentage play to essentially make it dead money. And I think people have pushed that thinking way too far. Keeping w/ Mariota — if he and Davis connected twice, it hardly makes you an outlier, unless everyone else also happened to tank. 

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2 hours ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I don’t know. I think there’s a tendency over time for people to move too far w/ anything. It seems like I’m seeing (always a suspect qualifier I know) more ridiculous lineups than in the past.  I know Mariota, for example, COULD have theoretically gone off and if you had him his low percentage would have won you lots of money. But it was such a ridiculous low percentage play to essentially make it dead money. And I think people have pushed that thinking way too far. Keeping w/ Mariota — if he and Davis connected twice, it hardly makes you an outlier, unless everyone else also happened to tank. 

:goodposting:

 

That's the only possible explanation why I'm cashing at 50% in gpps because I rarely have a great lineup.  It's pretty much been shove in a mix of Kamara, Gurley, Conner, and Gordon and the FBG value plays.  Also the triple stacks from the same team don't seem to be working for me.  I'm finding better lineups with a single stack or no stack.

The milly winner yesterday didn't have a stack and most of the top ten had Winston/Brate as their stack and would have done better or won the milly with McDonald instead of Brate.

My best lineups yesterday had Luck and Wilson despite most having Winston.  When I took Winston I got lead astray with his stack and ended up with a lower score.

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3 hours ago, Bobcat10 said:

What do you mean a little more expensive?  Can you point to a specific contest?

I'm filtered FREE to $50 and everything is offering 1 ticket except for some contests $1 and under.

I'm not seeing them right now.  Maybe they will be added later.  Hopefully the NBA crap hasn't replaced them.  I gotta think they want to have them because they drive entires to the signature contest and desperately want to keep that prize at $1mm.

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3 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I'm not seeing them right now.  Maybe they will be added later.  Hopefully the NBA crap hasn't replaced them.  I gotta think they want to have them because they drive entires to the signature contest and desperately want to keep that prize at $1mm.

I entered a couple in .50  contest for a $4 nba ticket that has only sold 1.3k of 23.8k spots and pays out 2500 tickets.

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pretty good week for me, finally. could have had a bigger week if my Jordan Howard/Chicago D stack had panned out, but I'll take doubling my entry fees.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

I entered a couple in .50  contest for a $4 nba ticket that has only sold 1.3k of 23.8k spots and pays out 2500 tickets.

I see this one now. They’ve added in some of the higher ticket contests in the last few hours. This one is up over 2300 entries. The rate will pick up, I’ll keep my eye on it.

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