That was the larger context when Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared 10 days ago. Reports now are more convincing, in addition to being more persuasive and gruesome, that he was murdered by Saudi agents. So, it soon may be time to mourn even more than the tragic and grisly passing of this intelligent, honorable and principled individual, whom I had known for years as a fellow journalist.
It may also mark the death of the crown prince's best ambitions, if not handled far more decisively and transparently than has been the case thus far.
The crown prince had been confronting three existential strategic threats simultaneously. A yet-incomplete internal struggle over his leadership, a dysfunctional domestic economy and culture that requires wholesale change, and an immediate external threat from an aggressive and expansive Iran. The country, the region and the world would be better off if MBS succeeds on all three.
But his recent mistakes have been the best gift possible for his domestic rivals, for those who fight his reform agenda and for Iran.
I count myself as one of those who had been captivated by the possibility of change and the compelling MBS personality. What impressed me was his focus, energy and vision, laid out over three lengthy meetings in Riyadh and Washington, of how his country had gone wrong and what he would do to modernize it with next-generation support.
Our meetings were off-record, but his on-record statements echoed their central tenets. Perhaps most powerful was his speech just a year ago at the country's first Future Investment Initiative, where he laid out before global investors why his vision for the country more closely matched what the Prophet had intended.
Without that, much more than the Future Investment Initiative is in danger.
Conventional wisdom not long ago was that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would rise to the throne and serve for decades, helping to transform his country, the region and the future of Islam for the better. Though he may still achieve that, his success in doing so now rests heavily on how quickly, decisively and transparently he can manage the current crisis and learn from his mistakes.
“Jamal Khashoggi lost control of his fate when he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul,” wrote Elliot Abrams in a Washington Post op-ed. “Mohammed bin Salman must act quickly to regain control of his own.”
This article originally appeared on CNBC.com
Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council.