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Blacks Support Trump

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On 7/26/2019 at 11:57 AM, Max Power said:

I dont think he has done much in the last 2.5 years to become more racist in the minds of Black voters. If someone was ok with him in 2016, I dont think many change their minds for him in 2020.

Trump's administration is taking steps towards prison reform with 90% of the inmates released so far being black. This is helping to stabilize families in the black community.

Black employment is up. I.e. more money in black communities which will also be noticed.

I think Dems are trending the wrong way with the black vote every time they talk about illegal immigration. Illegals arent coming to this country to take jobs from middle and upper class Americans. They take working poor level jobs which affects the black communities disproportionately. 

 I do think that if Trump wins....this is going to be "the shot out of nowhere" that no one saw coming; him performing well at much higher levels than his R predecessors(including himself in 2016).

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9 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

 I do think that if Trump wins....this is going to be "the shot out of nowhere" that no one saw coming; him performing well at much higher levels than his R predecessors(including himself in 2016).

There just appears to be no indication based on 2016, 2018, or any current polling.  Especially with dumb lynching comments.

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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

There just appears to be no indication based on 2016, 2018, or any current polling.  Especially with dumb lynching comments.

That's why it would be a "shot out of nowhere".

Just a vibe in the back of my head about that;.....  if he wins, the story isn't going to be how his supporters rallied even MORE "high school level of education whites" to vote for him..... it's not going to be Indys broke hard for him....it's going to be a demographic that doesn't follow their recently historical voting trends breaking more in his favor.  

 

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6 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

That's why it would be a "shot out of nowhere".

Just a vibe in the back of my head about that;.....  if he wins, the story isn't going to be how his supporters rallied even MORE "high school level of education whites" to vote for him..... it's not going to be Indys broke hard for him....it's going to be a demographic that doesn't follow their recently historical voting trends breaking more in his favor.  

 

Which is what happened in 2016. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

This has been posted in like two or three other threads.

I...

I just...

It's squis....similar to Noonan, when he doesn't get his attention he goes to all the threads he can think of posting until he gets his attention.

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1 minute ago, The Commish said:

It's squis....similar to Noonan, when he doesn't get his attention he goes to all the threads he can think of posting until he gets his attention.

I know squis. GB squis, but I thought he'd stopped that. 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

This has been posted in like two or three other threads.

I...

I just...

Not by me. bigbottom posted the original tweet in the Trump Tweets thread and I commented on that as I did in another thread where it was posted.

It is not prohibited to discuss the same topic,  event, or news item in more than one thread (see Trump Years thread, Trump 2020 HQ thread, Russia Investigation thread, Trump Impeachment Investigation thread, etc.) where the same item/topic has been discussed simultaneously in all threads. If you think all threads relating to Trump should be merged into one thread, perhaps you should start a thread and a poll on that.

I felt it is also relevant here because we keep hearing about how good blacks are doing under Trump and how popular he is with him, which is simply not true (at least the popularity part).

Edited by squistion

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Just now, squistion said:

Not by me. bigbottom posted the original tweet in the Trump Tweets thread and I commented on that as I did in another thread where it was posted.

It is not prohibited to discuss the same topic,  event, or news item in more than one thread (see Trump Years thread, Trump 2020 HQ thread, Russia Investigation thread, Trump Impeachment Investigation thread, etc.) where the same item/topic has been discussed simultaneously in all threads. If you think all threads relating to Trump should be merged into one thread, perhaps you should a thread and a poll on that.

I felt it is also relevant here because we keep hearing about how good blacks are doing under Trump and how popular he is with him, which is simply not true.

No need for arguments or kvetching on my end, really. I just thought it had been done quite a bit today. I was surprised. In terms of board upkeep and format, you'll also note I changed the ***Official*** CNN title to a more suitable title.

Cheers!

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

No need for arguments or kvetching on my end, really. I just thought it had been done quite a bit today. I was surprised. In terms of board upkeep and format, you'll also note I changed the ***Official*** CNN title to a more suitable title.

Cheers!

Thanks, that title always made me cringe, now I won't have to start a "CNN the Good Place!" thread. :hophead:

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2 hours ago, sho nuff said:

There just appears to be no indication based on 2016, 2018, or any current polling.  Especially with dumb lynching comments.

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

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2 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

Ugh...go search polling and then get back to us.  Its been gone over tome and tome and time again.

You can keep the pocketbook claim going and act as if people don't see through his crap.  Do you honestly (I know :lmao:) believe he will improve significantly with African Americans?  Despite 2016 and 2018?

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5 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

Take a look at any graph with black unemployment in the years under Obama and then Trump. Trump is continuing the exact same trend, it has continued exactly in the same direction and to the same extent as under Obama. There is no policy of Trump's that you can point that has improved black unemployment on any timeline since he took office.

And if you really think these lynching comments won't be brought up constantly until election day 2020 to remind black voters where he is really coming from (not that they should have had any doubt before this) then you seriously underestimate the value of word of mouth in the AA community.

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21 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

Or maybe, you know, talk to some actual black people once in a while. I live in Atlanta and have black family members. Trust me, they largely despise Trump.

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1 hour ago, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

The polling was reliable. Percent error is a thing. 

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I was shopping at Costco recently and saw an African American gentleman wearing a “#### Trump” shirt.  I didn’t get a chance to ask if he plans to vote for him but I did tell him I liked his shirt.

  • Laughing 2

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8 hours ago, squistion said:

And if you really think these lynching comments won't be brought up constantly until election day 2020 to remind black voters where he is really coming from (not that they should have had any doubt before this) then you seriously underestimate the value of word of mouth in the AA community.

Not to mention, the side eye black people get from the likes of the Trump Rally folks I’m sure doesn’t pull them toward the GOP.

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7 hours ago, Zow said:
9 hours ago, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

The polling was reliable. Percent error is a thing. 

Is this argument ever going to die? Do we need some democrat to be polling a few points lower than his/her republican counterpart and pull out the win in order for this line of thinking to stop? 

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4 minutes ago, the moops said:

Is this argument ever going to die? Do we need some democrat to be polling a few points lower than his/her republican counterpart and pull out the win in order for this line of thinking to stop? 

The real question that everybody in this forum should ask themselves is Does this matter? Does it matter if Republicans don't take polls seriously? Wouldn't that be to the Democrats' advantage? Take the gift.

But aha! It's not a gift. They actually want Republicans to bow before the polls and shape policy and attitudes therewith. Well, they can wait until hell freezes over as far as I'm concerned. No poll determines a necessary course of action.

It's bizarre, this need for approval. It's as if we can't let the democratic process be the democratic process. It must be democratic now, democratic all the time. Well, that's not the intent nor structure of the Republic. Sorry.

Edited by rockaction

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

The real question that everybody in this forum should ask themselves is Does this matter? Does it matter if Republicans don't take polls seriously? Wouldn't that be to the Democrats' advantage? Take the gift.

But aha! It's not a gift. They actually want Republicans to bow before the polls and shape policy and attitudes therewith. Well, they can wait until hell freezes over as far as I'm concerned. No poll determines a necessary course of action.

It's bizarre, this need for approval. It's as if we can't let the democratic process be the democratic process. It must be democratic now, democratic all the time. Well, that's not the intent nor structure of the Republic. Sorry.

I don't think that is anything unique to Dems or politics. It's just a scoreboard pointing thing. Trump loves polls too. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

I don't think that is anything unique to Dems or politics. It's just a scoreboard pointing thing. Trump loves polls too. 

I don't think it's endemic to Democrats, but I think it runs deeper than just scoreboard pointing. It's almost a democratic (small "d") virtue signal, where if you're way off in the polls you must be doing something wrong, or anti-democratic, as it were.

It also seems to be an especially sore subject in the particular forum as both virtual 2020 sideline HQs are constantly going back and forth about the validity of polling and polls and pollsters. It's been quite a unique dynamic in that respect, to say the least. 

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23 minutes ago, Zow said:

Why? 

really?

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2 minutes ago, joffer said:

really?

Well played and true. Not so much fun.

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5 minutes ago, joffer said:

really?

Yes? 

Anybody who took a stats class, or has suffered a bad beat in poker, should understand that odds and probabilities based on a meaningful sample size are not absolute guarantees. 

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20 minutes ago, Zow said:

Yes? 

Anybody who took a stats class, or has suffered a bad beat in poker, should understand that odds and probabilities based on a meaningful sample size are not absolute guarantees. 

i know, and its been explained over and over, yet certain posters don't and won't ever get it.  so......really?

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18 minutes ago, joffer said:

i know, and its been explained over and over, yet certain posters don't and won't ever get it.  so......really?

I guess I missed it and/or didn't pay much attention to the explanations in the past. It's really a very simple mathematical point but I'll drop it if it's already been thoroughly discussed. 

Just didn't understand why the guy was laughing at me when my point was, again, a very basic statistical concept. 

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21 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

But I posted 2!!!

Joking joking.

 

FINE!!!

I still don't understand why you found my post comical and deserving of an eye roll. 

 

Imagine you're playing poker. In fact, imagine you're playing one of the bigger pots I've ever lost. You're holding QQ. Flop is a dry board (no straight or flush draws). Turn comes a QQ. You check raise an all-in for a few thousand. Villain insta-calls with KK. Math suggests you have a 42/44 chance of winning. River comes a K and you lose. 

The above result doesn't change the analysis that you played the hand correctly because you got your money in when, statistically-speaking, you were a huge favorite and reasonably thought you were likely to win. Further, the fact that you lost doesn't suggest that the math was wrong - you did have a slight chance of losing. Regardless, the math isn't in error here. 

Similarly,  the polls - which operate off a sample size and can reasonably predict winning percentages much like the poker example - suggested that it was very likely that Hillary would win but allowed for the slight chance that Trump could win.  And he did. But that doesn't invalidate the polls or prove that they were "wrong" because, mathematically-speaking, they accurately provided for that possible two-outer. 

 

Tl;dr: America got a bad beat but math is still math. 

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1 minute ago, Zow said:

I still don't understand why you found my post comical and deserving of an eye roll. 

 

Imagine you're playing poker. In fact, imagine you're playing one of the bigger pots I've ever lost. You're holding QQ. Flop is a dry board (no straight or flush draws). Turn comes a QQ. You check raise an all-in for a few thousand. Villain insta-calls with KK. Math suggests you have a 42/44 chance of winning. River comes a K and you lose. 

The above result doesn't change the analysis that you played the hand correctly because you got your money in when, statistically-speaking, you were a huge favorite and reasonably thought you were likely to win. Further, the fact that you lost doesn't suggest that the math was wrong - you did have a slight chance of losing. Regardless, the math isn't in error here. 

Similarly,  the polls - which operate off a sample size and can reasonably predict winning percentages much like the poker example - suggested that it was very likely that Hillary would win but allowed for the slight chance that Trump could win.  And he did. But that doesn't invalidate the polls or prove that they were "wrong" because, mathematically-speaking, they accurately provided for that possible two-outer. 

 

Tl;dr: America got a bad beat but math is still math. 

Thanks for the analogy

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Just now, supermike80 said:

Thanks for the analogy

Do you not agree with it? Is it still laughable to you? 

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2 minutes ago, Zow said:

Do you not agree with it? Is it still laughable to you? 

Simply put, the polls were wrong.  They were used over and over again to tell everyone Hillary would win in a landslide.  I personally think polls are almost entirely useless and I have stated this before.  So the attempt to say "well the polls were within the margin or error"  (and not all were) is laughable to me.

In my opinion--polls are dumb and can't be trusted.

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2 hours ago, supermike80 said:

Simply put, the polls were wrong.  They were used over and over again to tell everyone Hillary would win in a landslide.  I personally think polls are almost entirely useless and I have stated this before.  So the attempt to say "well the polls were within the margin or error"  (and not all were) is laughable to me.

In my opinion--polls are dumb and can't be trusted.

In my opinion...you should read more about polls, polling, and statistics.

Simply put...nation polls were not wrong.  They were quite accurate and even comparing that to polling about people's opinions on something is also a big part of the problem here.

 

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2 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

In my opinion...you should read more about polls, polling, and statistics.

Simply put...nation polls were not wrong.  They were quite accurate and even comparing that to polling about people's opinions on something is also a big part of the problem here.

 

Yeah Sho you point this out every time I mention I think polls are worthless.  And while I try to not give anyone personal advice, because it isn't right for me to do so, it seems you enjoy it.

I will simply say we disagree on the effective or validity of polls.  OK?

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9 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

Yeah Sho you point this out every time I mention I think polls are worthless.  And while I try to not give anyone personal advice, because it isn't right for me to do so, it seems you enjoy it.

I will simply say we disagree on the effective or validity of polls.  OK?

Yes..I point it out because I understand how polling and statistics work and believe they provide us valuable information

In the case of this thread...support for Trump or each party (which differs from the..."hillary has X% chance of winning").  Comparing the two is quite funny.

And no...I don't enjoy having to repeat the same stuff over and over about statistics and polling when people play the "well, how did that work out in 2016" type of stuff.

 

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1 minute ago, sho nuff said:

Yes..I point it out because I understand how polling and statistics work and believe they provide us valuable information

In the case of this thread...support for Trump or each party (which differs from the..."hillary has X% chance of winning").  Comparing the two is quite funny.

And no...I don't enjoy having to repeat the same stuff over and over about statistics and polling when people play the "well, how did that work out in 2016" type of stuff.

 

If you want to make it a personal attack , that's your decision. I won't.

Edited to add:  However one thing I can promise you.....You making it personal will never lead me to hit the good ol "report" button.  So have at it freely.     

Edited by supermike80

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5 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

If you want to make it a personal attack , that's your decision. I won't.

Edited to add:  However one thing I can promise you.....You making it personal will never lead me to hit the good ol "report" button.  So have at it freely.     

Nothing I stated was a personal attack...nor do I care if you try to report me or not.

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6 minutes ago, supermike80 said:

If you want to make it a personal attack , that's your decision. I won't.

Edited to add:  However one thing I can promise you.....You making it personal will never lead me to hit the good ol "report" button.  So have at it freely.     

Pointing out that someone doesn't understand polling and statistics is not a personal attack.

If I posted "Sam Darnold had a 5.8 QB rating the other night!  That's amazing since 4.0 is like straight A's!"

Would it be a personal attack for someone to correct me?

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Just now, AAABatteries said:

Can you guys please put him on ignore?

The ignore feature is childish.  Another feature I will never use.  There are posters here who I have publicly committed to never respond to, but I won't put them on ignore. 

But that's me.

Edited by supermike80
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3 hours ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Its appropriate.

And apostrophic.

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On 10/22/2019 at 7:22 PM, Thunderlips said:

 I do think that if Trump wins....this is going to be "the shot out of nowhere" that no one saw coming; him performing well at much higher levels than his R predecessors(including himself in 2016).

Look at Vegas

Edited by GROOT

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10 hours ago, supermike80 said:

Simply put, the polls were wrong.  They were used over and over again to tell everyone Hillary would win in a landslide.  I personally think polls are almost entirely useless and I have stated this before.  So the attempt to say "well the polls were within the margin or error"  (and not all were) is laughable to me.

In my opinion--polls are dumb and can't be trusted.

In other words, math is dumb. Awesome. 

Such a shame that your vote also counts as much at Nozick’s....

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8 hours ago, supermike80 said:

 

I will simply say we disagree on the effective or validity of polls.  OK?

No, it isn’t. 

Most disagreements are OK. But some aren’t. If Kyrie Irving insists that the Earth is flat, that’s not an OK disagreement. If somebody tries to tell me that the Holocaust never happened, that’s not simply “another point of view” that we should respect. And when you disparage math because you did not understand what happened in 2016, it’s not OK. Your “opinion” on this is wrong, objectively. 

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

No, it isn’t. 

Most disagreements are OK. But some aren’t. If Kyrie Irving insists that the Earth is flat, that’s not an OK disagreement.

Yes, it is ok

Its whatever. Who cares really?

But here, if someone posts something that is incorrect the horde has to pounce and try to correct him.

R E L A X

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On 10/22/2019 at 9:38 PM, Gopher State said:

Ask Hillary about the reliability of polling.  When it comes to unemployment, etc., blacks are doing better then ever.  People do vote with their pocketbooks.

I disagree. Farmers are going to vote for Trump and he has been the worst President for their pocketbooks in our nation's history

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