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KarmaPolice

Draftkings Week 7

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After an epically bad week for me,  time to get back at it.   

Feels like we are getting to "jam 'em in" weekly, so frustrated me is looking at the Thurs-Mon slates and seeing how I can jam in 3 of:  Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, Gordon, Thielen and go from there.   

My gpp holder for now is:

Bortles

Gurley/Barkley/Gordon

Moncrief/Kearse/M.Williams

Uzomah

Buffalo

 

 

With injuries and whatnot, there are a lot of guys in the 4k range that might be interesting:  Garcon, Calloway, A.Wilson, Snead, Higgins, Amendola, Beasley,  one of the LaC Williams, Hogan, C.Sutton, Treadwell 

Cheapest I'll probably go for Rb is that Cohen/Breida/Hyde range.  

Brees at 5.7K is silly, and I am trying to work the above idea to include him.  

 

 

Oh, and this new forum format makes me feel like we are in some teen thread with the multiple reaction options.  Sheesh.  

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Still figuring out my main slate GPP lineup, but every version/iteration so far has included Gurley, Cohen, and Thielen.  The other spots change based on the QB, looking at Cousins, Trubisky,, and Mayfield so far. 

Really dont like the RBs this week - many of my favorite match-ups are not on the main slate.  

More research to do, so this could all change before the weekend.

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The main slate is kind of lacking in matchups and pricing I like so just doing some cheap gpps. Kind of like this one as a sneaky game stack.

Beathard/Gurly/Barber/Woods/Theilin/Snead/Kittle/Goodwin/Lions

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I am still gravitating to the thurs-mon, but I am sure I will have some main slate too.  Mainly gpps, I think I am just about  done with cash games.  

If I do a D.Anderson/K.Benjamin combo on the Thurs-monday, I am able to fit in Gurley, Thielen, Barkley, and Cohen.  :oldunsure:

Edited by KarmaPolice

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On 10/16/2018 at 7:26 PM, KarmaPolice said:

After an epically bad week for me,  time to get back at it.   

Feels like we are getting to "jam 'em in" weekly, so frustrated me is looking at the Thurs-Mon slates and seeing how I can jam in 3 of:  Gurley, Barkley, Zeke, Gordon, Thielen and go from there.   

My gpp holder for now is:

Bortles

Gurley/Barkley/Gordon

Moncrief/Kearse/M.Williams

Uzomah

Buffalo

Agree with the picks in bold for cash and gpp. 

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29 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am still gravitating to the thurs-mon, but I am sure I will have some main slate too.  Mainly gpps, I think I am just about  done with cash games.  

If I do a D.Anderson/K.Benjamin combo on the Thurs-monday, I am able to fit in Gurley, Thielen, Barkley, and Cohen.  :oldunsure:

I only play in gpp. Loading up on Gurley lineups again this week.

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34 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Agree with the picks in bold for cash and gpp. 

With his usage, how terrible Atl D is vs the rbs, and how down NYG will be most of the game, I think Barkley is a lock button player for me in my handful of Thurs-Mon games.  

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Just trying to get back to basics a bit.  Of course as usual it points to using studs, but here are the OL vs. DL ratings as far as who has the best matchup:

Cinc, Miami, Stl, Dallas, SD, SF, NE, Denv, KC, AZ.     (the bolded are going against DLs in the top 5 for adjusted yds allowed/rush)

NYG is the one team that faced a horrible ranked DL, but didn't show up since their OL is also terrible.   Barkley should be still golden b/c of all the targets and game script.  

 

So, that points more to Gurley, Zeke, Gordon, and probably Barkley.   I do like Mixon and Hunt a bit as well since the high total games usually attract the attention of the passing attacks when people are building LUs.    The one that I thought was interesting was NE yet again.  Michel has averaged 22+touches and 5 RZ carries in the last 3 weeks.  Maybe more of a FD play since he doesn't catch passes, but he will also be low owned and could be a pivot off Cohen for me in a few LUs since they are similar in price.  

 

I think if you factor in price/Vegas totals/matchup, etc.    I think my list for my gpps LUs is something like:  Gurley/Barkley/Hunt for a majority of the LUs and mix in Mixon, Gordon, Zeke, Michel, Cohen in there.  

 

 

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Keep landing on Beathard on DK too.  last 3 weeks has at least 3.5xd, and is dirt cheap.   Like I asked/statesd over on the FD thread, I am staring at Beathard, Trubisky, and Mayfield.   The problem on DK is that those last two names are also sandwiched around names like Brees and Cam, and Flacco vs. a bad D is also the same price.   

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Been fiddling with lineups all morning pretty much and I can't find something good for cash that I like.  Beathard screams value, but he's so uncomfortable in a division game against the rams of all teams as well so idk.  I want to go Baker too, but he honestly looked pretty bad to my eyes last week.  The problem is when I put together a Dalton or Ryan lineup I hate it even more because I'm stuck with complete garbage at WR after that.  

TE seems easy, I'm going Njoku or Uzomah in most cash lineups, possibly Evan Engram if I'm feeling spoiled but I doubt it.  Same with RB, seems easy that I WANT to go Gurley/Barkley/Mixon in some fashion but you can't spend everywhere right?  Maybe the play is Tevin Coleman or Tarik Cohen with only 1 of them so I can actually get a decent WR.  I don't know.  I'm honestly frustrated and venting my opinions after this troublesome morning of getting lineups done.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Been fiddling with lineups all morning pretty much and I can't find something good for cash that I like.  Beathard screams value, but he's so uncomfortable in a division game against the rams of all teams as well so idk.  I want to go Baker too, but he honestly looked pretty bad to my eyes last week.  The problem is when I put together a Dalton or Ryan lineup I hate it even more because I'm stuck with complete garbage at WR after that.  

TE seems easy, I'm going Njoku or Uzomah in most cash lineups, possibly Evan Engram if I'm feeling spoiled but I doubt it.  Same with RB, seems easy that I WANT to go Gurley/Barkley/Mixon in some fashion but you can't spend everywhere right?  Maybe the play is Tevin Coleman or Tarik Cohen with only 1 of them so I can actually get a decent WR.  I don't know.  I'm honestly frustrated and venting my opinions after this troublesome morning of getting lineups done.  

I like Cohen this week.  On average, NE is giving up 6.5 Rec, 64 Rec yards and a rec TD every 2 games to RBs.  With the usage and production Cohan is getting, seems like a great choice in the main slate.  Even without a TD he should get around 3 times needed for cash games with upside for GPP.  

Edited by BillyJoeBob
Clarify receiving stats

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Finally found a lineup that I don't hate for cash

Cam

Zeke, Gurley

John Brown, Chester Rogers, Albert Wilson

OJ Howard

Marlon Mack

Vikings

*thinking of going Crabtree instead of John Brown for the ppr bonus, but Smokey might get that 100 yardage bonus too so I'm not sure.  If I do change that I'm likely paying less at flex and more at TE with Njoku

Got a couple GPP lineups that are dart throws including a Wentz/Jeffery/Ertz stack, a Goff/Cooks stack and a Osweiler/Wilson/Drake stack.  They're worthy of quarter arcade.  

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9 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Been fiddling with lineups all morning pretty much and I can't find something good for cash that I like.  Beathard screams value, but he's so uncomfortable in a division game against the rams of all teams as well so idk.  I want to go Baker too, but he honestly looked pretty bad to my eyes last week.  The problem is when I put together a Dalton or Ryan lineup I hate it even more because I'm stuck with complete garbage at WR after that.  

TE seems easy, I'm going Njoku or Uzomah in most cash lineups, possibly Evan Engram if I'm feeling spoiled but I doubt it.  Same with RB, seems easy that I WANT to go Gurley/Barkley/Mixon in some fashion but you can't spend everywhere right?  Maybe the play is Tevin Coleman or Tarik Cohen with only 1 of them so I can actually get a decent WR.  I don't know.  I'm honestly frustrated and venting my opinions after this troublesome morning of getting lineups done.  

I get what you are saying and I felt weird when I said it, but then I looked and saw that 5 of his last 6 starts he has gotten to 3x+.  A podcast also pointed out that he does have a rush floor and in those 6 games has 3 rushing TDs.   Dunno.   I like him more for the Thurs-Mon or Sun-Monday slates where we probably want to do Gurley/Barkley/Hunt/Mixon and we would need to save to get there.   Not sure about the main slate when it's probably something like Gurley/Zeke/Cohen and you might not need to go that low (unless you are doing Thielen as well).    Also, the Rams have just let Wilson and Keenum go for 300 yds.  

 

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What do you guys think about Brees this week? He's the 10th highest priced only 300 more than chalky Flacco which seems very strange. Probably have at least a gpp with Brees but wondering about cash also. Comes down to Flacco/Goodwin or Brees/Coutee?

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

What do you guys think about Brees this week? He's the 10th highest priced only 300 more than chalky Flacco which seems very strange. Probably have at least a gpp with Brees but wondering about cash also. Comes down to Flacco/Goodwin or Brees/Coutee?

I like Brees, especially as a gpp pivot and paired with Kamara in gpps.  That combo has 60pt upside, they are underpriced, and I think will be low owned as people go to Baker and others again or go with Zeke at similar price. 

I think he'd be ok for cash too, it's just that I usually look to guys that might also have some rushing production to boost up the floor in cash.  I had beathard, cam, trubisky and Bortles written down for that reason as cash ideas.  

 

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7 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

What do you guys think about Brees this week? He's the 10th highest priced only 300 more than chalky Flacco which seems very strange. Probably have at least a gpp with Brees but wondering about cash also. Comes down to Flacco/Goodwin or Brees/Coutee?

Pivot GPP play? Sure, I can see it.  Cash? absolutely not.  

From Matthew Berry on ESPN

"Brees has played one outdoor road game this season. That was against the Giants and he scored 8.6 points" - The Ravens have twice as good of a defense that the Giants do.  

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Here's my 50/50 lineup

Bethard

Barkley

Chubb

Julio

AJ Green

Goodwin 

Uzomah

Breida 

Redskins

 

May be a bit too dependent on the 49ers for a 50/50 but all seem like good value.  

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14 hours ago, TripItUp said:

Here's my 50/50 lineup

Bethard

Barkley

Chubb

Julio

AJ Green

Goodwin 

Uzomah

Breida 

Redskins

 

May be a bit too dependent on the 49ers for a 50/50 but all seem like good value.  

Is this Thurs-Mon or Sun-Mon?

I like a lot of the plays, but like you said - that is 3 SF players, and you are fading some mega chalk (or what I would assume to be chalk) in Thielen, Gurley, and Njoku.  

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Is this Thurs-Mon or Sun-Mon?

I like a lot of the plays, but like you said - that is 3 SF players, and you are fading some mega chalk (or what I would assume to be chalk) in Thielen, Gurley, and Njoku.  

definitely fading Gurley/Thielen/Njoku

This is Sunday/Monday

I also think Ekeler is super sneaky flex play if Gordon is out.

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3 hours ago, TripItUp said:

definitely fading Gurley/Thielen/Njoku

This is Sunday/Monday

I also think Ekeler is super sneaky flex play if Gordon is out.

For GPP, I started heavy with Gurley/Thielen/Njoku lineups early in the week, but now it's clear the crowd is all over that core group.  Gurley will be over 40% owned. I'm keeping the original lineups as-is but pivoting to new lineups that feature lower owned players starting with Saints RBs since I expect them to try to run all over the Ravens. I also really like Hopkins this week. Both are bad matchups on paper, so the crowd will fade them. 

 

1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Don't think they are good plays? 

Yes they are chalk plays but in GPP it seems likely that a significant percentage of lineups will start with the same 4 players, Gurley/Chubb/Thielen/Njoku. Sure enter a few of those chalk lineups too, but if you fade that group, you will end up with a much more unique roster. 

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22 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

For GPP, I started heavy with Gurley/Thielen/Njoku lineups early in the week, but now it's clear the crowd is all over that core group.  Gurley will be over 40% owned. I'm keeping the original lineups as-is but pivoting to new lineups that feature lower owned players starting with Saints RBs since I expect them to try to run all over the Ravens. I also really like Hopkins this week. Both are bad matchups on paper, so the crowd will fade them. 

 

Yes they are chalk plays but in GPP it seems likely that a significant percentage of lineups will start with the same 4 players, Gurley/Chubb/Thielen/Njoku. Sure enter a few of those chalk lineups too, but if you fade that group, you will end up with a much more unique roster. 

The LU he posted was for a cash contest, so I was surprised that he decided to go against all 3 of those chalk plays in a cash LU.    That is my mental battle for cash LUs though, and a big reason why I don't really enjoy putting them together.   I get it when it's Bortles chalk week b/c he is Blake Bortles, but I think it's scarier not having Gurley in cash.

 

I get what you are saying about those guys to a point, but what I am leaning towards is trying to find lower % plays elsewhere.  I think it's mostly this slate in particular b/c so many of the top options are on SNF, MNF, or have a bye.  IF I am thinking right, I think the chalky plays will be:  Gurley, Zeke, Cohen, Chubb, Thielen, Woods/Cooks, and Njoku.   I get what you are saying about %, but I also think that you only need 1-2 guys that are lower owned to do well in a gpp.  Even if the players Gurley/Cohen/Chubb/Theilen/Njoku are all 20% owned in a gpp, the % of LUs with all 5 of those guys will be a lot lower than that, and even if it's 20% of LUs have that combo, that leaves you 4 other spots to get a low % guy in there.  There are lots of ways to attack gpps, so usually I to decide what I like best of options like:

1.  Using my cash core like above and getting cute elsewhere, especially at DT.

2.  Pivoting off one or two of those guys to somebody else to get lower %.  ie - this week I like Kamara instead of Zeke in gpps, or a guy like K.Johnson or Michel instead of Cohen.  So something like Gurley/Kamara/S.Michel/Thielen/Njoku  will be a lot lower owned than the core 5 above I think, but still doesn't pivot of what I think might be the best plays of Gurley/Thielen/Njoku

3.  Paying up or down at a position that I think a lot of people will have a similar build and go from there.  ie this week I think people will pay down at TE, so If you start by playing Ertz in a gpp, the rest of your LU will probably be different by default as you work around that.  

4.  Just going YOLO and getting weird all over.  

 

What I am leaning to on this main slate in particular, is that I think there are a core 6-7 players that I think are great plays and I am hesitant to fade them, even in gpps.  Also keep in mind that you can take a stand and got he other way with a player and their %.  Say you are building 10LUs for the same big gpp, and Gurley is supposed to be 30% owned.   If you think he is a slam dunk great play, you can use him in 70% of your LUs and stay ahead of the rest of the field that way.   I think these big multi-entry gpps and doing 10+ LUs is when ownership comes into play more.  If you are doing 1-2 LUs and going in a single entry contest, it matters less and I lean towards going with what you think are the best plays for the most part.  

 

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20 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

The LU he posted was for a cash contest, so I was surprised that he decided to go against all 3 of those chalk plays in a cash LU.    That is my mental battle for cash LUs though, and a big reason why I don't really enjoy putting them together.   I get it when it's Bortles chalk week b/c he is Blake Bortles, but I think it's scarier not having Gurley in cash.

 

I get what you are saying about those guys to a point, but what I am leaning towards is trying to find lower % plays elsewhere.  I think it's mostly this slate in particular b/c so many of the top options are on SNF, MNF, or have a bye.  IF I am thinking right, I think the chalky plays will be:  Gurley, Zeke, Cohen, Chubb, Thielen, Woods/Cooks, and Njoku.   I get what you are saying about %, but I also think that you only need 1-2 guys that are lower owned to do well in a gpp.  Even if the players Gurley/Cohen/Chubb/Theilen/Njoku are all 20% owned in a gpp, the % of LUs with all 5 of those guys will be a lot lower than that, and even if it's 20% of LUs have that combo, that leaves you 4 other spots to get a low % guy in there.  There are lots of ways to attack gpps, so usually I to decide what I like best of options like:

1.  Using my cash core like above and getting cute elsewhere, especially at DT.

2.  Pivoting off one or two of those guys to somebody else to get lower %.  ie - this week I like Kamara instead of Zeke in gpps, or a guy like K.Johnson or Michel instead of Cohen.  So something like Gurley/Kamara/S.Michel/Thielen/Njoku  will be a lot lower owned than the core 5 above I think, but still doesn't pivot of what I think might be the best plays of Gurley/Thielen/Njoku

3.  Paying up or down at a position that I think a lot of people will have a similar build and go from there.  ie this week I think people will pay down at TE, so If you start by playing Ertz in a gpp, the rest of your LU will probably be different by default as you work around that.  

4.  Just going YOLO and getting weird all over.  

 

What I am leaning to on this main slate in particular, is that I think there are a core 6-7 players that I think are great plays and I am hesitant to fade them, even in gpps.  Also keep in mind that you can take a stand and got he other way with a player and their %.  Say you are building 10LUs for the same big gpp, and Gurley is supposed to be 30% owned.   If you think he is a slam dunk great play, you can use him in 70% of your LUs and stay ahead of the rest of the field that way.   I think these big multi-entry gpps and doing 10+ LUs is when ownership comes into play more.  If you are doing 1-2 LUs and going in a single entry contest, it matters less and I lean towards going with what you think are the best plays for the most part.  

 

Point taken. I only play in GPP, not cash. 

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Put together a sneaky GPP lineup (I think it's sneaky).

Brady

Mixon

White

J. Gordon, Nuk, Taylor Gabriel

Njoku

Cohen

Cowboys

I'm calling my shot right now that Josh Gordon will be in the millionaire's lineup.  No Gronk so lets fire up that engine.  

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31 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Point taken. I only play in GPP, not cash. 

Do you do lots of entries in one contest?

Don't get me wrong, there are lots of ways to go about the gpps.   It just seems like way more times than not I try to get too cute, then look at the winning LUs and see mostly obvious plays with a couple odd guys.  Take last week - people crammed in Gurley, Gordon, etc and that build probably landed them on Osweiler on the cheap.  

 

When I look at the news this week and think of the builds, I think that people will be all over Chubb and/or Cohen and maybe be paying up at 1 or 2 WR spots.   I think it might actually be contrarian to jam in Gurley, Zeke, and Kamara for a gpp even though it's very possible with all the cheap WRs opening up because of injuries - everything from Kearse, Snead, M.Harris,  A.Wilson, Goodwin, T.Smith,  etc  all could be plays on the cheap.     This is what I did for my 4 FD LUs, and I am thinking about doing the same for a handful of DK LUs since I don't love a lot of the top $ WR plays for the main slate.  

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Do you do lots of entries in one contest?

Don't get me wrong, there are lots of ways to go about the gpps.   It just seems like way more times than not I try to get too cute, then look at the winning LUs and see mostly obvious plays with a couple odd guys.  Take last week - people crammed in Gurley, Gordon, etc and that build probably landed them on Osweiler on the cheap.  

 

When I look at the news this week and think of the builds, I think that people will be all over Chubb and/or Cohen and maybe be paying up at 1 or 2 WR spots.   I think it might actually be contrarian to jam in Gurley, Zeke, and Kamara for a gpp even though it's very possible with all the cheap WRs opening up because of injuries - everything from Kearse, Snead, M.Harris,  A.Wilson, Goodwin, T.Smith,  etc  all could be plays on the cheap.     This is what I did for my 4 FD LUs, and I am thinking about doing the same for a handful of DK LUs since I don't love a lot of the top $ WR plays for the main slate.  

Yes I enter multiple entries in gpp contests. 

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I decided I didn't want chubb in cash quite yet, and didn't want 2 Clev guys in there, so hopefully that doesn't bite me this week.  Here is what I have:

Beathard 

Gurley/zeke/Cohen

Thielen/kearse/m.harris

Njoku

Buffalo 

 

Right now I am debating between kearse and Snead, but like the rest. 

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Always like this thread for advice, rolling with this for my cash lineup:

 

Beathard

Zeke/Barkley/K Johnson

Thielen/Kearse/Coutee

Njoku

Bills

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Awful week. My best score is under 157. Even in lineups where I went straight chalk and picked Gurley/Thielen/Chubb/Njoku, I am still barely going to cash.

 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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11 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

I am still barely going to cash.

 

Thats not an awful week.  My cash isn't over 100 yet, and my gpps are looking to be in the bottom 10-15% of entries.   Looking like it might be back to back weeks of pitching a no-fer here. 

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12 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Thats not an awful week.  My cash isn't over 100 yet, and my gpps are looking to be in the bottom 10-15% of entries.   Looking like it might be back to back weeks of pitching a no-fer here. 

I got a no-fer too. Even with most lineups having Gurley, Theilin and Kittle my best score was 120.4 in a gpp and 3 cash lineups scored 102-115.

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Yep, Zeke,  Kearse, and Bill D destroyed my chances.    Lots of cheap WR duds like Snead, Goodwin, etc..    

The best part is that for about a day this week, I had a Cam/Gurley/Chubb/Cohen/Thielen/Landry  LU in there, maybe even with Burton.   :wall:

 

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

OYep, Zeke,  Kearse, and Bill D destroyed my chances.    Lots of cheap WR duds like Snead, Goodwin, etc..    

The best part is that for about a day this week, I had a Cam/Gurley/Chubb/Cohen/Thielen/Landry  LU in there, maybe even with Burton.   :wall:

 

I hit on many of the top RB/WR/TE players, but QB and DEF sunk almost every lineup. I went back to the well this week on Bortles on a few lineups that missed even with Gurley, Thielen, Njoku, Chubb.

I only had three lineups that barely cashed out of several that missed:

Brees, K.Johnson, D.Johnson, Hopkins, Thielen, M.Thomas. Njoku, J.Brown, Bears

Winston, Chubb, Collins, J.Brown, Golladay, Hopkins, O.Howard, Gurley, Colts

Wentz, Chubb, Gurley, Evans, Jeffrey, Reynolds, Ertz, O.Howard, Ravens.

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