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Snorkelson

FanDuel Week 8 “the ocho”

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I was poking around too much in the political threads and got a ban b/c the mod completely misquoted my post.  Not a biggie, but made me realize how ticky tacky this place has become and that I was OK when I wasn't dicking around in the threads so much while on my vacation.  

lol I got my first ever ban right before you but it was the FFA. I  made an obvious joke about Irish Catholics (which i am one) and someone cried to the mods. I @ him several imes after asking him to man-up and apologize  but he never responded. 

Edited by Ilov80s

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

####.  Completely forgot about that.  I remember trying to log in, and grumbling b/c I hate that Yahoo makes me verify my stuff so much (have to send me a text and verify it's me, etc.) and never got around to logging in.  Sadly, that is why I lost track of my MLB leagues too.  

 lol Yahoo is annoying, I beat your ### in week 6. I had 172 so it wasn't nothing you could have done 

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2 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I had very limited exposure for tonight's game, but I'm glad I paid for Drake on one card and Miller on the other. Always nice going into Sunday with points from a cheap Thursday player.

On DK I went 50% on Miller b/c he was cheap for my NO/Minn and GB/LaR ideas, but unfortunately I paired him with Houst D in all of them and they are rockin' the 1x value.   

Honestly, with the way the NFL is going, I would rather FD dropped the DT and kept the PK position.  Sucks more than normal trying to figure out these President Trump as they turn the NFL into arena football.  

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I was poking around too much in the political threads and got a ban b/c the mod completely misquoted my post.  Not a biggie, but made me realize how ticky tacky this place has become and that I was OK when I wasn't dicking around in the threads so much while on my vacation.  

Yeah, I got banned because of a political post a few years ago. Can't really say I regret it.

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3 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

lol I got my first ever ban right before you but it was the FFA. I  made an obvious joke about Irish Catholics (which i am one) and someone cried to the mods. I @ him several imes after asking him to man-up and apologize  but he never responded. 

Like somebody joked about my vacation - it's a surprise it wasn't b/c of my comment about the creepy My Pillow guy rubbing his junk on all the pillows before shipping.   Nope, just a lack of reading comprehension.  

Are you rocking the DFS, or are you looking to start b/c of your season longs not performing?

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2 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

Yeah, I got banned because of a political post a few years ago. Can't really say I regret it.

We should be careful and instead talk about something less controversial in the dfs community- like brunch. 

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Like somebody joked about my vacation - it's a surprise it wasn't b/c of my comment about the creepy My Pillow guy rubbing his junk on all the pillows before shipping.   Nope, just a lack of reading comprehension.  

Are you rocking the DFS, or are you looking to start b/c of your season longs not performing?

A little of both,  my season long is trash so I have played a bit with DFS the last 2 weeks and it has been very good but I know it was just luck. 

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1 minute ago, Ilov80s said:

We should be careful and instead talk about something less controversial in the dfs community- like brunch. 

I almost lost it and got real life banned as the 2 owners of the store were in the store yesterday and their pants got tight as a group of young Rs were stopping in to eat on their way to a Trump rally.   KP started to develop a little twitch, but kept my mouth shut.  

Anyway, like you said - let's talk about DFS.  How about how Seattle and Detroit are going to shoot out and win me all the :moneybag:

 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

A little of both,  my season long is trash so I have played a bit with DFS the last 2 weeks and it has been very good but I know it was just luck. 

I'll be honest - I've been stinking at NFL dfs the last couple years.  I usually win overall at MLB dfs and then it trickles away as I play NFL.  Still fun, but can't seem to get any consistency to it.  Plus it's a lot harder since most of the gpps are 10-100x bigger and more people play fantasy football so they have a better idea of players and such I think.  

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Anyway, like you said - let's talk about DFS.  How about how Seattle and Detroit are going to shoot out and win me all the :moneybag:

 

I think Detroit beats them stupid but I am a homer 

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####in' Watson.  Why the hell are they still throwing it?  Oh well, at least it was only 25cents tonight, but still will keep my no tix streak alive.  Had the right players, but wrong MVP.  

 

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17 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

lol I got my first ever ban right before you but it was the FFA. I  made an obvious joke about Irish Catholics (which i am one) and someone cried to the mods. I @ him several imes after asking him to man-up and apologize  but he never responded. 

I can see being upset about a joke. But I would never complain to a moderator about someone's conduct. I'm able to take care of myself thanks.

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think Detroit beats them stupid but I am a homer 

It's just about this time of year that Wilson remembers he knows how to play football, and they are coming off a bye.  I think Det wins, but the pieces are cheapish on FD this week, so I am deciding if it will go back and forth a bit to be a sneaky game this week as everybody stacks up the 50pt+ total games on the main slate.  

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I'll be honest - I've been stinking at NFL dfs the last couple years. 

That happens, bro. Especially if you're playing tournaments. Dry spells are a thing. I've netted a bit over $4,000 over the last few years, and that's really only three big tickets. So that's a lot of losing in between.

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

It's just about this time of year that Wilson remembers he knows how to play football

My gut is telling me that Wilson really is going to go off on Sunday. Like 3 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

It's just about this time of year that Wilson remembers he knows how to play football, and they are coming off a bye.  I think Det wins, but the pieces are cheapish on FD this week, so I am deciding if it will go back and forth a bit to be a sneaky game this week as everybody stacks up the 50pt+ total games on the main slate.  

Yeah, Wilson has some great 2nd half of year numbers recently. As concerns the over/under, I worry you are wrong. Lions IMO want to play slow. Seahawks seem to want to do the same. Howeve, Vegas knows better. 

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

Yeah, Wilson has some great 2nd half of year numbers recently. As concerns the over/under, I worry you are wrong. Lions IMO want to play slow. Seahawks seem to want to do the same. Howeve, Vegas knows better. 

Don't they tend to play a bit faster at home, but slow it down on the road?

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

Don't they tend to play a bit faster at home, but slow it down on the road?

You might know more about that than me. I am not sure the sample size of home v road is big enough to mean anything. 

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2 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

That happens, bro. Especially if you're playing tournaments. Dry spells are a thing. I've netted a bit over $4,000 over the last few years, and that's really only three big tickets. So that's a lot of losing in between.

Yeah, I haven't had that big of a win yet, but that's how it was in baseball too.  Won a few hundred dollars last year, but it was basically just due to 2-3 top 10 finishes.   Hard to keep up with the big boys in gpps when I am not paying for any info. 

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yeah, I haven't had that big of a win yet, but that's how it was in baseball too.  Won a few hundred dollars last year, but it was basically just due to 2-3 top 10 finishes.   Hard to keep up with the big boys in gpps when I am not paying for any info. 

I think what he is saying applies. In DFS your win % is going to be low so if you are doing tourneys, it's about winning the 1 or 2 big ones, not about consistency. 

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

You might know more about that than me. I am not sure the sample size of home v road is big enough to mean anything. 

Fair point.  Not sure where you would find that info.  Just thought one of the podcasts mentioned that and that Det isn't great at defending the slot, so maybe Baldwin was in play on the week.   

But yeah - situation neutral, Det is the 2nd slowest team in the league so you bring up a good point.  Dammit, don't make me play one of these chalky games...

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3 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I think what he is saying applies. In DFS your win % is going to be low so if you are doing tourneys, it's about winning the 1 or 2 big ones, not about consistency. 

For sure.  I have grown to hate cash games.   Played all gpp in MLB, and it's probably at 85%+ for NFL.

I don't have any season long pay leagues anymore, and put less money in dfs/year than I was spending on regular fantasy, so WTF.  Still like looking at stats and trying to solve this puzzle every week.  

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Fair point.  Not sure where you would find that info.  Just thought one of the podcasts mentioned that and that Det isn't great at defending the slot, so maybe Baldwin was in play on the week.   

But yeah - situation neutral, Det is the 2nd slowest team in the league so you bring up a good point.  Dammit, don't make me play one of these chalky games...

Sorry, I can stop talking,  Is Snacks playing? That could be big. 

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

For sure.  I have grown to hate cash games.   Played all gpp in MLB, and it's probably at 85%+ for NFL.

I don't have any season long pay leagues anymore, and put less money in dfs/year than I was spending on regular fantasy, so WTF.  Still like looking at stats and trying to solve this puzzle every week.  

gpp is just nice because 1  win can make a season or more 

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2 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Sorry, I can stop talking,  Is Snacks playing? That could be big. 

Nah, it's all good.  All year I have been trying to find "odd" games for gpps while watching the chalky ones explode.  I figure the week I pivot is the week the chalk flops, so not sure what to do.  

Not sure the answer to your question.  

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Nah, it's all good.  All year I have been trying to find "odd" games for gpps while watching the chalky ones explode.  I figure the week I pivot is the week the chalk flops, so not sure what to do.  

Not sure the answer to your question.  

Very chalky year, right? At all levels

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Just now, Ilov80s said:

Very chalky year, right? At all levels

Seems that way, although I think a couple weeks ago somebody won $1M with a Brock/A.Wilson stack, so who knows.  

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I go into info overload after a bit, but in theory is there a salary amount that you want to keep your core stacks under for gpps?   I am guessing we need to assume about 3.3x value (200pts) to do damage in a gpp.

So a stack like Rodgers/Adams/Woods need to put up about 82pts to get you you on your way?

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$1.75 in, $0.87 out in the Hail Mary

ofer on the 3 $9 ticket entries

$27 in, $24.47 out in the main event

$6 in, no tickets out

$3.50 in, split two tickets between 29 people = $1.24 out

$9 in, 7 pieces of a 36 people splitting 23 tickets = $40.25 out

$15 in, 1 $4 ticket out = $4

$15 in, 3 $4 ticket out = $12

$3.50 in, 2 $4 ticket out = $8

$1.75 in, zero tickets

Total $82.50 in, $90.83 out

Not much overlay out there tonight.

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11 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Cash lineup I put together and I'm really liking it right now.  Starting to trust myself more with my lineups with past successes but we will see.

Keenum

Conner, Hunt

AJ Green, Diggs, Jakeem Grant

J. Cook

Lindsay

Baltimore

The only thing I'm questioning is Keenum, but it's a good matchup and he'll have to throw to even have a chance to win so here's to hoping for some garbage TD's, and if not then it's probably a close game.  Either way I think he's fine.  

As for GPP, I'm liking so many games as stacks it's hard to just pick one.  There are a lot that seem like shootouts to me so I'm not sure how I feel on those.  

I've done 3 lineups with Keenum so far so that I could load up with Hunt,Gurley and Lyndsey at RB

 

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4 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

$1.75 in, $0.87 out in the Hail Mary

ofer on the 3 $9 ticket entries

$27 in, $24.47 out in the main event

$6 in, no tickets out

$3.50 in, split two tickets between 29 people = $1.24 out

$9 in, 7 pieces of a 36 people splitting 23 tickets = $40.25 out

$15 in, 1 $4 ticket out = $4

$15 in, 3 $4 ticket out = $12

$3.50 in, 2 $4 ticket out = $8

$1.75 in, zero tickets

Total $82.50 in, $90.83 out

Not much overlay out there tonight.

I appreciate your win/loss tallies- it’s pretty obvious you roll a bigger bankroll out week to week than most of us, and it would be easy for you to list the wins or just the ones you profit on. A guy I work with is always bragging about how he “won” the last week, but doesn’t take the money spent out of his total. 

“I won $20 on FanDuel this week, how did you do?”

me- well, I had $26 in and $22 out, so recouped most of it but lost money. What was the buy in? Did you win anywhere else?

”It was a $10 double up. My other cards didn’t do squat...”

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7 hours ago, Ilov80s said:

#### bro, didn't know you were around. what up, who do I play in daily? 

 

Just stay away from these guys and you will be fine...

9 hours ago, Galileo said:

My current line up for cash...

Trubisky

D. Johnson/Hunt/Mostert

A. Brown/TY HIlton/Sutton

Cook

Pittsburgh

I feel pretty good about this one at the moment which means it will likely bust.

 

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Anyone want to talk me into Doug Martin for tournaments?

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15 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

Anyone want to talk me into Doug Martin for tournaments?

Anything is possible, but I see that game as a negative game script for Martin.  He is probably OK if you think Oak is going to stay even with Indy, but not a play if you think Oak stinks and Indy goes up by 20+ early.  I guess I like Crowell and Howard at the same price or guys like Mostert or Duke as fliers in the cheaper range.  

ETA:  one of the podcasts did mention him as a play and brought up the point the J.Richard's usage always stays the same it seems, and just because the FF community wants to make J.Richard a thing now that Lynch is out of the picture doesn't mean it will happen.  I thought that was a good point. 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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19 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Anything is possible, but I see that game as a negative game script for Martin.  He is probably OK if you think Oak is going to stay even with Indy, but not a play if you think Oak stinks and Indy goes up by 20+ early.  I guess I like Crowell and Howard at the same price or guys like Mostert or Duke as fliers in the cheaper range.  

ETA:  one of the podcasts did mention him as a play and brought up the point the J.Richard's usage always stays the same it seems, and just because the FF community wants to make J.Richard a thing now that Lynch is out of the picture doesn't mean it will happen.  I thought that was a good point. 

I have Richard on 6 cards this week :bag:

 

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11 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Not much overlay out there tonight.

No there wasn't. 

For NFL, I got in the $1 Clutch Shot satellite, 100 tickets awarded and only filled 334 out of 522 spots.  Basically played like a triple up.  Got that $4.44 ticket by a hair.  

The NBA version only filled 293 out of 522 and I won that ticket rather easily finishing 14th.

Now have to wait until 12/20.  Is that a special Clutch Shot tournament?  Why the long wait?  There is a Clutch Shot everyday.  

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58 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I have Richard on 6 cards this week :bag:

 

:shrug:

seems a popular play, just passing along info.  

like I posted above, personally I am hesitant on FD about dudes that only get 10 touches a game (mostly passes) and no RZ work.  If we use the 3.3x target, that's about 19pts for Richard.  So that's about 6 catches, 100 total yards, and a TD?  Not sure- is that a realistic ceiling for him? 

I think that is why my builds are similar (which I realize isn't always the best) - pay for touches and RZ work in the stud rbs, and try for shots on cheap fast wrs that could get a couple 50yd tds at a cheap price.  Ie I'd probably rather have Hunt + D.jax over Richard + Brown.  

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13 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

:shrug:

seems a popular play, just passing along info.  

like I posted above, personally I am hesitant on FD about dudes that only get 10 touches a game (mostly passes) and no RZ work.  If we use the 3.3x target, that's about 19pts for Richard.  So that's about 6 catches, 100 total yards, and a TD?  Not sure- is that a realistic ceiling for him? 

I think that is why my builds are similar (which I realize isn't always the best) - pay for touches and RZ work in the stud rbs, and try for shots on cheap fast wrs that could get a couple 50yd tds at a cheap price.  Ie I'd probably rather have Hunt + D.jax over Richard + Brown.  

The way I see it is there are often super cheap dudes that I'm going to own shares in my lineups. And while they don't always produce, neither do their much more expensive counterparts every time.

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1 hour ago, Bobcat10 said:

No there wasn't. 

For NFL, I got in the $1 Clutch Shot satellite, 100 tickets awarded and only filled 334 out of 522 spots.  Basically played like a triple up.  Got that $4.44 ticket by a hair.  

The NBA version only filled 293 out of 522 and I won that ticket rather easily finishing 14th.

Now have to wait until 12/20.  Is that a special Clutch Shot tournament?  Why the long wait?  There is a Clutch Shot everyday.  

Last year that was a huge tourney.  The good thing is that a significant number of people winning these tickets didn't use them (and it didn't fill to boot).  I ended up with 140 or so as I recall.  Spent 5 hours doing lineups.

This is a good way to build your bankroll.  Target these tickets in the sub 60% filled tournies and keep accruing them.  If you end up with enough of them, you'll end up cashing a lot of them.

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27 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Last year that was a huge tourney.  The good thing is that a significant number of people winning these tickets didn't use them (and it didn't fill to boot).  I ended up with 140 or so as I recall.  Spent 5 hours doing lineups.

This is a good way to build your bankroll.  Target these tickets in the sub 60% filled tournies and keep accruing them.  If you end up with enough of them, you'll end up cashing a lot of them.

There were two 100 ticket contests open at a time but I only played in one in each sport.  I'm making an effort again to hit the lobbies everyday 10 minutes before lock.  This is something I always used to do back in my pre-FD and early FD days when I had more time. 

I haven't checked out NBA Express/Late slates or NHL or other sports....I'll have to take a look at those in the coming days.  

Also, FD doesn't seem to have the rapid fill rates that DK does in the last minute....does anyone else notice this or am I dreaming?

Edited by Bobcat10

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49 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

The way I see it is there are often super cheap dudes that I'm going to own shares in my lineups. And while they don't always produce, neither do their much more expensive counterparts every time.

I get what you are saying.  

I guess in theory there should be plays we should be making and stats we should be looking at to have better odds at the cheap darts, I'm just not smart enough or pay enough for the info.  

I am assuming for FD it's a mix of RZ, air yards, aDOT, etc. because we need tds and big plays. Just not sure what to focus on.  

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10 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I get what you are saying.  

I guess in theory there should be plays we should be making and stats we should be looking at to have better odds at the cheap darts, I'm just not smart enough or pay enough for the info.  

I am assuming for FD it's a mix of RZ, air yards, aDOT, etc. because we need tds and big plays. Just not sure what to focus on.  

Do you read FBG's FanDuel feature that predicts ownership for GPPs? Good stuff.

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3 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Do you read FBG's FanDuel feature that predicts ownership for GPPs? Good stuff.

Nah, I decided to stop paying for the info.  I have tried a few sites over the years, and it really didn't seem to help my winning %, so like somebody else last week said - I might as well just put that extra $30-40 into my DFS bankroll.   One thing I do miss is glancing at the ownership %, but mostly just used that for tie-breakers anyway it seemed.   Mostly it seems to follow Vegas totals, vs. bad Ds, and hot players right?   This year if I am trying to guess a lower owned guy, I just do the opposite - look at a game not in the top 4 or so of the Vegas totals, try a stud vs a perceived good D, or take a stab at a guy who hasn't heated up yet.   Once in awhile I will be shocked at the ownership of a guy and say, "damn I wish I knew that", but not too often.  

My guess for predicted top QBs on the main slate this week would be Mahomes, Luck, Rodgers, Winston, and Ben with maybe Dalton close behind?  

I would guess a stud like M.Thomas or OBJ might be lower owned than the others b/c of the games aren't over 50 o/u and/or they are going against a decent D. 

 

Just trying to do my best with listening to podcasts (you mentioned it, but the FBGs one might me my least favorite :oldunsure: ) and  looking at free info from RG, airyards, and footballoutsiders.    I think the breaking point for me was during the MLB season when I tried some paid info.  The impression that I got was "well, this is the OK stuff, but how about these add ons for the super duper pro info for what amounted to $100s a month".  GTFO with that.   For football, I've tried 4for4, RG, and FBG paid info, and never felt like their optimizers or info put me over the edge of where I was at.  I am sure a bit of that is not having a big enough bankroll to do a lot of different things and ride out the lows, and I will fully admit to that.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Nah, I decided to stop paying for the info.  I have tried a few sites over the years, and it really didn't seem to help my winning %, so like somebody else last week said - I might as well just put that extra $30-40 into my DFS bankroll.   One thing I do miss is glancing at the ownership %, but mostly just used that for tie-breakers anyway it seemed.   Mostly it seems to follow Vegas totals, vs. bad Ds, and hot players right?   This year if I am trying to guess a lower owned guy, I just do the opposite - look at a game not in the top 4 or so of the Vegas totals, try a stud vs a perceived good D, or take a stab at a guy who hasn't heated up yet.   Once in awhile I will be shocked at the ownership of a guy and say, "damn I wish I knew that", but not too often.  

My guess for predicted top QBs on the main slate this week would be Mahomes, Luck, Rodgers, Winston, and Ben with maybe Dalton close behind?  

Just trying to do my best with listening to podcasts (you mentioned it, but the FBGs one might me my least favorite :oldunsure: ) and  looking at free info from RG, airyards, and footballoutsiders.  

I dig. Weeks that I've obsessed over ownership have not netted me more money, so there's that.

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5 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I dig. Weeks that I've obsessed over ownership have not netted me more money, so there's that.

Just like every other stat, ownership % only gets you so far, and I think it's only really useful if you are mass entering gpps and taking stands.   

If I remember the FBG starting articles and such, when you are looking at ownership % you are kind of equating that to how likely you think that player is to hit value.   Ie if Adams is 30% projected and you play him, you are saying that you think that 30% of the time he will hit his gpp value.   Also it lets you dictate your ownership of your mass entry LUs - so if Adams is only projected at 10% and you love him and are putting in 50 LUs in one gpp, you know that you could lock him in 25% of your LUs and be well ahead of the field in that gpp.  So, it's not just taking low owned guys, it's being heavier than the rest of the entries for guys even if they are projected fairly highly.  

 

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12 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Just like every other stat, ownership % only gets you so far, and I think it's only really useful if you are mass entering gpps and taking stands.   

If I remember the FBG starting articles and such, when you are looking at ownership % you are kind of equating that to how likely you think that player is to hit value.   Ie if Adams is 30% projected and you play him, you are saying that you think that 30% of the time he will hit his gpp value.   Also it lets you dictate your ownership of your mass entry LUs - so if Adams is only projected at 10% and you love him and are putting in 50 LUs in one gpp, you know that you could lock him in 25% of your LUs and be well ahead of the field in that gpp.  So, it's not just taking low owned guys, it's being heavier than the rest of the entries for guys even if they are projected fairly highly.  

lol clearly you work way harder at this than I do :)

 

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3 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

lol clearly you work way harder at this than I do :)

 

Stay at home dad for a couple of years = a lot of time on my hands.  ;)

 

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Stay at home dad for a couple of years = a lot of time on my hands.  ;)

I know another stay at home dad, and he just posts political stuff on Facebook all day. Unrelenting. 

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Took a peek at this today, and will pass it along - was listening to somebody talking about focused Offenses for stacks, and how they hated teams where there is one guy barely over 20% target share and then everybody else is in the teens, so you are just throwing darts trying to figure out stacks for the QB (if you are game stacking or doing more than one pass catcher + the QB).  Seems like 20% is the cutoff, so here are the teams that have 2 players over 20% of the teams target share:

Car - Funchess, McCaffrey

Cinc - Green, Boyd

Clev - Landry, Njoku

Det - Tate, Golladay

KC - Hill, Kelce

LaR - Woods, Cooks, (Kupp is at 19%)

Min - Thielen, Diggs

NO - Thomas, Kamara

NYG - OBJ, Barkley

Pitts - Brown, JuJu.  

 

Teams that were close:

Philly - Ertz, and just usuing Jeffrey's target share since he's been back would qualify.

Oak - Cook, Richard (at 19%)  (I thought this one was very interesting since it doesn't feature a WR).  

Denver - Sanders,  DT (at 19%, but does he stick around).  

 

ETA:  Oops, forgot Carolina on the initial list.  

 

 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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Other players that were currently over the 20% threshold:

Hopkins, Adams, J.White, Evans, Kittle, Crabtree, Enunwa, A.Robinson, Fitz, Lockett.  

ETA:  oops, missed Evans in the initial list.  

 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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