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What would it take for you to trade Mahomes? (1 Viewer)

zftcg

Footballguy
Let me say at the outset that, as a Mahomes owner, I have no intention of trading him. But I was listening to the Harris Football podcast the other day, and his logic is that the position is so deep that you could get most of Mahomes' production from another QB, so why not use him to upgrade at a more scarce position? I don't think that's wrong in theory, but if I actually apply it to my situation, it doesn't really seem to make sense. So I started thinking about why that is, and what it says about fantasy value in general.

OK, first of all, there are the psychological factors, which should not be paramount, but I'd be lying if I said they didn't play a role. One, Mahomes is really fun to have on your team -- watching him take me from way behind to way ahead during that Pats SNF game last week was a joy, and isn't that ultimately why we play fantasy? Two, there's also loss aversion, which I recognize is not necessarily rational, but c'mon! Can you imagine trading this guy away and then having to face him in the championship?

But let's take emotion out of it for a second: Is there a haul you could get that would make the trade worth it? And is a trade like that remotely realistic?

In my case, I can't really think of one that would make sense, but that's mostly because my team is a freaking 7-0 juggernaut, with no obvious weaknesses (Barkley/Michel/Lindsay and Hill/Sanders/Boyd).** Although this actually has me thinking back to last year, when I had a similar situation with Wentz. In that case, my RBs were pretty bad -- I was trotting out Collins, DeMarco and Jamal Williams -- so even before he shredded his knee, it probably would have been smart to trade Wentz for a more reliable RB. I guess that's the situation where it makes the most sense: using a stud QB to address an obvious weakness.

Then the question becomes what you could actually get for him. No one's giving up a top RB for him. So maybe a tier down, like Mixon, CMC or (a healthy) Michel? What about a WR1, particularly one whose value might be a little depressed right now, like Julio? Or maybe a lower-end WR1 like Juju or Cooks?

I dunno. I can't imagine being genuinely happy with a trade unless I got a high-floor stud, and I think the odds of someone giving up a cornerstone of their team for Mahomes are pretty slim.  

Has anyone seen actual Mahomes trades in their redraft leagues? What is he going for?

** If you're thinking that I only threw that in there to brag, all I can say to you is  :pickle:

 
Nice post. I gently disagree, though. If I had him, I wouldn't trade him for anything but a high-end WR1 or RB1. That's just my take on how good he's been, plus the pleasure of watching him play in this offense right now.  It might not be great, numbers-wise, but I'd need Zeke or someone like him for him. You wouldn't get Gurley, and I'd do that, but you might get somebody like Barkley for Mahomes.  

 
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Yeah - having Stafford types on my squad I can tell you that I'm not getting Mahomes like production, especially in 6 point TD leagues.  Problem is Mahomes is producing the equivalent of 2 studs right now, so unless you see a drop off coming for any reason I don't know why an owner would trade him.  They all have to be in contention unless devastated by RB injuries.

 
Nice post. I gently disagree, though. If I had him, I wouldn't trade him for anything but a high-end WR1 or RB1. That's just my take on how good he's been, plus the pleasure of watching him play in this offense right now.  It might not be great, numbers-wise, but I'd need Zeke or someone like him for him. You wouldn't get Gurley, and I'd do that, but you might get somebody like Barkley for Mahomes.  
As someone who owns both (again:  :pickle: ) there is no way I would give up Barkley for a QB.

Maybe this is the way to think about it: I drafted Mahomes in the 7th round of a 14-team standard league. If we redid the draft today, he would probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round (OK, fine, there would probably be some idiot who drafted him in the first, but for the sake of argument, let's assume this league is neither full of excitable newbs nor jaded vets who would never draft a QB before the 10th).

So who's a 2nd or 3rd round talent? Certainly not Zeke or Saquon. Not even sure it's CMC or Michel; they're probably late first. It's probably more of a mid-tier WR1 like Cooks or Juju. Which I agree, wouldn't be enough for me. But is that only because of the psychological reasons I outlined above? I'm having a hard time trying to disentangle those from the rational side of my brain.

 
Great question. 

They play LAR on MNF in week 11 in Mexico City.  That right there is why we play this hobby for moments like that.  Vamos!

 
As someone who owns both (again:  :pickle: ) there is no way I would give up Barkley for a QB.

Maybe this is the way to think about it: I drafted Mahomes in the 7th round of a 14-team standard league. If we redid the draft today, he would probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round (OK, fine, there would probably be some idiot who drafted him in the first, but for the sake of argument, let's assume this league is neither full of excitable newbs nor jaded vets who would never draft a QB before the 10th).

So who's a 2nd or 3rd round talent? Certainly not Zeke or Saquon. Not even sure it's CMC or Michel; they're probably late first. It's probably more of a mid-tier WR1 like Cooks or Juju. Which I agree, wouldn't be enough for me. But is that only because of the psychological reasons I outlined above? I'm having a hard time trying to disentangle those from the rational side of my brain.
Yeah, I think the psychological elements enter into play. Depends on league makeup, too. I don't think I'd give up Barkley (I also :dancing pickle: have him) for Mahomes, but somebody might be set at RB. There's also kind of a flawed premise. You're not drafting today. You drafted back then. Michel was going in the third because he was hurt. I got him in the eighth of a FFA league with sixteen teams in it. So you have to take into account raw numbers rather than current ADP, which is all inherently predictive anyway, I think. In other words, teams are looking a whole lot different with weird strengths and weaknesses than would otherwise be ideal back on draft day. The best intentions, and all. But I think you're largely right. It's a low end WR1 or a low-end RB1. The disagreement was just gentle.  

But I'm not sure. I value being set at quarterback because I always draft late and it tends to be an uncertain position for me because of that. I'm not a jaded vet, and I've certainly gotten wiped out by somebody like Brees in the playoffs before, but that was once, so I'm also not in the category of excitable newbie. It's just how much you personally value each position.   

 
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Ok so in my league the Mahomes owner also has Luck. His WRs are dog dodo (allen, dt, cooper). He posted a message that he was willing to trade one of his QBs for a top WR. I sent him an offer of Green for Mahomes and he's ignored it ever since. I don't think he's serious about trading him. 

 
Yeah, I think the psychological elements enter into play. Depends on league makeup, too. I don't think I'd give up Barkley (I also :dancing pickle: have him) for Mahomes, but somebody might be set at RB. There's also kind of a flawed premise. You're not drafting today. You drafted back then. Michel was going in the third because he was hurt. I got him in the eighth of a FFA league with sixteen teams in it. So you have to take into account raw numbers rather than current ADP, which is all inherently predictive anyway, I think. In other words, teams are looking a whole lot different with weird strengths and weaknesses that would otherwise be ideal. I think you're largely right. It's a low end WR1 or a low-end RB1. 

But I'm not sure. I value being set at quarterback because I always draft late and it tends to be an uncertain position for me because of that. I'm not a jaded vet, and I've certainly gotten wiped out by somebody like Brees in the playoffs before, but that was once, so I'm also not in the category of excitable newbie. It's just how much you personally value each position.   
The idea behind a draft re-do is to assess their current value. Mahomes is the QB1 to date (and there's a good chance he will continue to be); how valuable is the QB1 relative to other positions? Well, based on a typical draft, QB1 = mid-tier WR1/high-end RB2.

But yes, I'm with you. One of the reasons you draft QBs later is because you can still find value at the position there (and if you don't, you can fall back on streaming without feeling like you wasted a top pick). But if you hit on that late-round pick, does it make sense to immediately cash out? I would say only if you completely whiffed on one of those top picks and can use that QB chip to fix the mistake.

Here's another way to think of it: Let's say that, out of necessity, you're starting total low-floor guys at one of your RB positions. I'm talking Henry, Blount, Duke Johnson, etc. The value of upgrading to a reliable starting option is huge. But if you have fairly reliable guys -- say, Lindsay, Peterson, Cohen -- upgrading to a Mixon is going to be less valuable, and you're not going to upgrade to a true stud like Zeke or Saquon. So there, it probably doesn't make sense.

That's where I am. I'm sure if I were determined to make a deal, I could probably get someone who would represent at least a slight upgrade, particularly at WR. But anyone I could get wouldn't be enough of an upgrade to justify the loss of consistent production/crazy upside from Mahomes.

BTW, the other scenario where it would make sense to trade him would be if you totally lucked out on both of your late-round fliers and also got, say, Ryan. In that case I would entertain offers for both and see which could get me the best deal. But in that case you pretty much have to trade one of them.

 
The Mahomes owner in our league is considering a trade for Hunt to shore up his RBs.  He also owns Wentz.  I wouldn't do it but I would trade Wentz for Hunt though in a heartbeat if I owned both of those QBs. 

If you own 2 strong QBs, I would certainly entertain offers to shore up your RB position. 

 
As someone who owns both (again:  :pickle: ) there is no way I would give up Barkley for a QB.

Maybe this is the way to think about it: I drafted Mahomes in the 7th round of a 14-team standard league. If we redid the draft today, he would probably go in the 2nd or 3rd round (OK, fine, there would probably be some idiot who drafted him in the first, but for the sake of argument, let's assume this league is neither full of excitable newbs nor jaded vets who would never draft a QB before the 10th).

So who's a 2nd or 3rd round talent? Certainly not Zeke or Saquon. Not even sure it's CMC or Michel; they're probably late first. It's probably more of a mid-tier WR1 like Cooks or Juju. Which I agree, wouldn't be enough for me. But is that only because of the psychological reasons I outlined above? I'm having a hard time trying to disentangle those from the rational side of my brain.
I don't think of things from a "what would a redraft" look like pov.  I look at things like this:  what is the drop in avg weekly scoring if you go from Mahomes to whomever else you have on your roster (or could get via a trade).  then, can you do a trade that will make up that difference plus a little more?  If so, then possibly do the trade.

I did that last year.  I had Wentz and Brady.  Wentz was outperforming Brady, so I traded Brady straight up for Fournette.  In my case, my starting avg didn't change (I had already swapped Wentz in for Brady in my lineup around week 3 or 4).  So, I was simply gaining the upside of Fournette over my #2 RB.

 
The Mahomes owner in our league is considering a trade for Hunt to shore up his RBs.  He also owns Wentz.  I wouldn't do it but I would trade Wentz for Hunt though in a heartbeat if I owned both of those QBs. 

If you own 2 strong QBs, I would certainly entertain offers to shore up your RB position. 
I'd do the Wentz for Hunt deal as well.  I'd even strongly consider Mahomes for Hunt if he balked at the first offer.

 
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Ok so in my league the Mahomes owner also has Luck. His WRs are dog dodo (allen, dt, cooper). He posted a message that he was willing to trade one of his QBs for a top WR. I sent him an offer of Green for Mahomes and he's ignored it ever since. I don't think he's serious about trading him. 
I actually think Green for Mahomes is reasonably fair value. But I also totally get why he won't do it. I wonder if he gets more desperate to move one of his QBs before the trade deadline.

BTW, a few years ago I drafted Brady during his Deflategate suspension, then Stafford as a fill-in. In retrospect, that was probably too much draft capital for a fill-in QB, but fortunately I was able to turn Stafford into Hilton before it was clear T.Y. was having a breakout season (that was the year he ended up leading the league in receiving yards.) So in that case I turned a low-end QB1 into a mid/high WR1, which was a great deal.

 
The idea behind a draft re-do is to assess their current value. Mahomes is the QB1 to date (and there's a good chance he will continue to be); how valuable is the QB1 relative to other positions? Well, based on a typical draft, QB1 = mid-tier WR1/high-end RB2.

But yes, I'm with you. One of the reasons you draft QBs later is because you can still find value at the position there (and if you don't, you can fall back on streaming without feeling like you wasted a top pick). But if you hit on that late-round pick, does it make sense to immediately cash out? I would say only if you completely whiffed on one of those top picks and can use that QB chip to fix the mistake.

Here's another way to think of it: Let's say that, out of necessity, you're starting total low-floor guys at one of your RB positions. I'm talking Henry, Blount, Duke Johnson, etc. The value of upgrading to a reliable starting option is huge. But if you have fairly reliable guys -- say, Lindsay, Peterson, Cohen -- upgrading to a Mixon is going to be less valuable, and you're not going to upgrade to a true stud like Zeke or Saquon. So there, it probably doesn't make sense.

That's where I am. I'm sure if I were determined to make a deal, I could probably get someone who would represent at least a slight upgrade, particularly at WR. But anyone I could get wouldn't be enough of an upgrade to justify the loss of consistent production/crazy upside from Mahomes.

BTW, the other scenario where it would make sense to trade him would be if you totally lucked out on both of your late-round fliers and also got, say, Ryan. In that case I would entertain offers for both and see which could get me the best deal. But in that case you pretty much have to trade one of them.
Makes sense. I guess I just think that once the draft is done, ADP changes so radically that team makeup can't account for need like a pre-draft plan can.  

And I guess I am that jaded vet. I usually draft two late, but if I don't see anything I sometimes draft one QB late, sometimes without a backup on the roster, and should worse come to worse, I'm streaming QBs. Because every year there are guys on the wire that hit. It's if you're paying attention to your league's scoring and sometimes ignoring real football performance. See: Bortles, Blake or Taylor, Tyrod. 

And now I've jinxed myself, of course. And I guess I do devalue the position. But Mahomes is different and having those points crucial. Good work.  

 
I'd try the Wentz for Hunt deal as well.  I'd even strongly consider Mahomes for Hunt if he balked at the first offer.
Agree. That's a deal where the numbers almost certainly favor making the trade, so it's just the psychology (which again, shouldn't be dismissed out of hand!)

 
I own Barkley and Mixon. No way I'd give up any of them for a QB. I wouldn't trade for a QB in most cases; they have very minimal trade value IMO. even Mahomes. 

To downgrade significantly at WR or RB to upgrade a few points at QB is just not worth it IMO.

My best offer would be a RB like Collins and my QB (Goff or Winston) for Mahomes. Or a flex /low WR2 like Lockett with a QB.
 

I'd have to be quite desperate in my short bench league to trade for any QB. I can likely find a decent QB at some point off the WW (Winston this year, and by the end of the year I think the PPG difference between Winston and Mahomes will be quite small). 

 
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I own Barkley and Mixon. No way I'd give up any of them for a QB. I wouldn't trade for a QB in most cases; they have very minimal trade value IMO. even Mahomes. 

To downgrade significantly at WR or RB to upgrade a few points at QB is just not worth it IMO.

My best offer would be a RB like Collins and my QB (Goff or Winston) for Mahomes. Or a flex /low WR2 like Lockett with a QB.
 

I'd have to be quite desperate in my short bench league to trade for any QB. I can likely find a decent QB at some point off the WW (Winston this year, and by the end of the year I think the PPG difference between Winston and Mahomes will be quite small). 
:goodposting:

You make two important points: One, the same factors that argue in favor of trading away Mahomes also depress his perceived value among other owners. I suspect you are probably going to reach a deal if you have an owner who is either desperate or overvalues QBs.

Two, that might be the type of deal to consider: Instead of trying to trade Mahomes straight up for a RB1, get an RB2 plus a mid-tier replacement QB. If I were to trade in my league (14-teamer where most owners carry two QBs), I would be a little wary of full-on streaming the position, so would be amenable to including a replacement. Don't think Collins would get it done, but I think we're getting in the range, especially if I was sucking wind at RB2 and could get someone who represented a significant upgrade.

 
Are we talking redraft or dynasty?
Redraft. I don't play dynasty and besides, what I'm really trying to get at with this thread is the perceived value of the overall QB1 halfway through the season. I would imagine in dynasty, there are enough variables that everyone has a price.

 
I've traded for Mahomes in dynasty this year in one league and tried in another. 

I gave Rodgers + 1st (likely top 2) + tyrell Williams for Mahomes + Edmonds.

I offered Rodgers + Fournette for Mahomes + future 2nd in the other league and when he sees it I don't know how he doesn't take it but you never know. 

 
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Redraft. I don't play dynasty and besides, what I'm really trying to get at with this thread is the perceived value of the overall QB1 halfway through the season. I would imagine in dynasty, there are enough variables that everyone has a price.
If I owned him (and I don't in any of my leagues), I would be asking for a RB1 or WR1 in return.  I think a desperate team may do it, but not for one of the top-tier options at either position.

 
I was thinking about this last night as I looked at weeks 15/16 for the first time.    Chiefs have a Thursday night game at home on December 13 against the Chargers, who should have Bosa back.   Average nighttime temperature in Kansas City in mid-December is 28 degrees.   Historically there's also a decent chance of snow. 

Then for week 16 championships they go to Seattle for a Sunday night game on December 23.   Guaranteed cold and rainy, if not snowing. 

Add to this a week 12 bye, and I think there may be some reason to cash out, get a WR1 out of him and find a QB with a friendly warm weather schedule down the stretch.

 
I own Mahomes in dynasty (Brady on the bench). I would trade him for a top tier workhorse RB in a heartbeat.

 
I own Mahomes in dynasty (Brady on the bench). I would trade him for a top tier workhorse RB in a heartbeat.
in our dyno Team A sent Mahomes and Cory Davis to Team B for Zeke and Lamar Jackson. I couldn't believe it. 

 
too many RB1's and WR1's have down weeks several times throughout the year.....and they get dinged easier....no thanks....

the offer would have to completely blow me out of the water and almost guarantee that I would win every week....and you can't do that....the offer would have to include a top flight QB IMO.....Mahomes gives you chance almost every week even if you missed on a few guys or had some injuries.... 

 
A player I wouldn’t be able to get.  I’d have to get a pretty strong stud, and that’s with Cam Newton as my number 2.  Talking top 5 WR or RB.

 
too many RB1's and WR1's have down weeks several times throughout the year.....and they get dinged easier....no thanks....

the offer would have to completely blow me out of the water and almost guarantee that I would win every week....and you can't do that....the offer would have to include a top flight QB IMO.....Mahomes gives you chance almost every week even if you missed on a few guys or had some injuries.... 
This post is why I should throw out some offers. If a Gurley, Zeke, Hunt, Kamara owner feels this way :wub:

 
In Dynasty I’m not trading him. I agree QB is usually easy to replace but when you have a guy like Mahomes it just a huge advantage. I was tied going into Sunday night with a guy, both of us have 3 players to go. I have Mahomes, tyreek and Barkley and he has Ryan, Mixon and Hooper so I felt pretty good but figured it could be close. Well after Mahomes put up 40 some points it wasn’t close anymore. Yeah I woulda still won with a QB like Stafford or Ryan and there 20-25 maybe 30 points but with Mahomes I know that I can cover a 30-40 point spread very quickly

 
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This post is why I should throw out some offers. If a Gurley, Zeke, Hunt, Kamara owner feels this way :wub:
Gurley maybe....but good chance they clinch HFA early and start giving Brown more run to save wear and tear on Gurley....Kamara owners probably struggled last two weeks he has played (which is what I am referring too)... Ingram stealing points...Hunt...lots of other options....if you get some of these guys, great, but IMO it won't be the best decision in the long run...especially if you aren't trotting out Rodgers, Brady, etc. in Mahomes place...

everybody is going to throw out the player A + Player B versus Mahomes + player C thing....but you just don't know...I'm rollin the dice with Mahomes and player C everyday of the week and twice on Sunday...

 
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Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield)

10/23/18, 4:13 PM

Most fantasy points per game in a single-season all-time:

1. Patrick Mahomes, 2018 (27.3)
2. Aaron Rodgers, 2011 (26.2)
3. Peyton Manning, 2013 (25.8)
4. Mike Vick, 2010 (25.4)
5. Drew Brees, 2011 (24.7)

 
FF is also supposed to be fun. Mahomes is probably my favorite player to watch right now so I don't think any offer is going to be able to get it done at this point. 
I think this is a very underrated take. If you’re playing for fun why would you ever trade Mahomes, he’s incredible to watch!

If you’re playing to maximize your chances at winning money, there are two factors that make a Mahomes trade in redraft attractive, lack of scarcity at QB (which many have covered) but also potential for regression. Remember last year when Watson was a flawless QB, the “Micheal Jordan of football,” after his first few games? He was producing at an incredible rate that just wasn’t sustainable. And since he was a rookie many confused a hot streak for his normal expectation moving forward.

It’s a bit unfair to compare Mahomes to Watson since Mahomes’ tape, coaches, and weapons are all better but the potential for regression does feel very real. Many players are capable of crazy outlier stat hot streaks but almost all of them come back down to earth eventually, even the really talented ones. We also have to factor in somewhat the risk of teams defending Mahomes better with more tape to go off.

I wouldn’t be falling all over myself to trade Mahomes for a good WR since those are plentiful too, but if I’m offered someone like Mixon, Hunt, or CMC I’m accepting for sure. I’d also most likely take a WR like AJ Green, Keenan Allen, or Thielen too unless I’m already stacked at that position.

 
Tell that to the guy i just offered Rodgers/Fournette for Mahomes. Please!
I like Fournette a lot but the man is the walking dead. 

In the league I own Mahomes (a devy league) I have him and luck but nothing else, I'm still not trading him for less than a couple great devy players.

 
Dynasty--mulling a Watson and MT for Mahomes and Theilen offer to a team that isn't quite there yet. The QB3 plus WR3 for the QB1 and WR8-10 or so feels like pretty fair value, with my championship window team getting the bigger now points and the team at the tail end of their rebuild getting more valuable and younger at WR and staying in the second tier (assuming Mahomes is alone at the top) at QB. Theilen is unstoppable right now but he's also going to be 29 this offseason, so turning that into a top-3 WR has to be a consideration for a retooling team in a league that doesn't have over the top QB scoring imo.

 
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I am not sure why anyone would give up a WR1 and definitely not a RB1 for Mahomes, except maybe superflex or 2QB leagues.  Even in my 6pt/passing TD league he is only out scoring the 2nd tier of QBs by ~5ppg where the avg team score is 125-130. 

 
I like Fournette a lot but the man is the walking dead. 

In the league I own Mahomes (a devy league) I have him and luck but nothing else, I'm still not trading him for less than a couple great devy players.
And Rodgers is chopped liver? Think it's a great deal but I own Tyreek and want to enjoy the ride the next 5 years.....

 
Dynasty--mulling a Watson and MT for Mahomes and Theilen offer to a team that isn't quite there yet. The QB3 plus WR3 for the QB1 and WR8-10 or so feels like pretty fair value, with my championship window team getting the bigger now points and the team at the tail end of their rebuild getting more valuable and younger at WR and staying in the second tier (assuming Mahomes is alone at the top) at QB. Theilen is unstoppable right now but he's also going to be 29 this offseason, so turning that into a top-3 WR has to be a consideration for a retooling team in a league that doesn't have over the top QB scoring imo.
Seems fair. 

 
In my only dynasty league (12 team, start 1 qb, 4 pt per td pass) I traded Rodgers for some draft picks and then traded the draft picks for a package that included Nuk. I then won back to back Championships with a mixture of Kaep and Tannyhill at the QB spot. And I've been a top team ever since. 

So yeah, I'd trade Mahomes away in my league if I owned him. 

 
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