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Gurley and the Fantasy Playoffs (1 Viewer)

B

Boccioni

Footballguy
Long-time reader, first (or almost) first time poster.

As we near the season where (especially in dynasty) teams are looking to trade their way into a position for a fantasy playoff run, I was wondering what folks' thoughts were about the prospect that McVay might sit Gurley (or for that matter other elite Rams) for the playoffs.

This ESPN piece lays out a thoughtful case for why there is cause for concern:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25064248/how-los-angeles-rams-clinch-2018-nfl-playoffs-early-wreck-fantasy-teams

I haven't seen much discussion of this risk yet. Does anyone who follows the Rams closely believe these concerns are overblown?  

 
I saw someone mention it in these threads. They'd thought about it a bit. I can't help, though. Malcolm Brown is the back up RB and ran for about seventy in mop-up the other week. It's not far-fetched, your concern.  

 
Have Gurley and am obviously a huge Rams fan.  My guess if things play out with an early #1 seed lock up...  week 15 business as usual, week 16 is treated like the typical 3rd preseason game and starters play into the second half (maybe deep 3Q), week 17 (which shouldn’t matter for FF as week 17 championships suck) are a sit for starters (max 2 series if they play).  

The #1 seed bye is the clincher for me.  2 full weeks off if they sit week 17 is enough, probably to much, time off.  No way they bleed that to much into week 16.   

Still with all that said I recently added Brown. Lol

 
I thought this thread was going to be about how Gurley was going to singlehandedly carry teams to a championship again.  Would love to relive the euphoria of that!!

 
dkp993 said:
Have Gurley and am obviously a huge Rams fan.  <snip>

Still with all that said I recently added Brown. Lol
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 As well you should have. In fact, any Gurley owner should have already had Brown tucked away, as I mentioned in the "ID the waiver wire darling" thread. 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/771492-lets-try-to-id-the-waiver-wire-rb-darling-from-here-out/?do=findComment&comment=21455389

 Sad I didn't get him anywhere. (But I may have gotten EZE this year had I been in a position to do so)

TZM

 
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dkp993 said:
Have Gurley and am obviously a huge Rams fan.  My guess if things play out with an early #1 seed lock up...  week 15 business as usual, week 16 is treated like the typical 3rd preseason game and starters play into the second half (maybe deep 3Q), week 17 (which shouldn’t matter for FF as week 17 championships suck) are a sit for starters (max 2 series if they play).  

The #1 seed bye is the clincher for me.  2 full weeks off if they sit week 17 is enough, probably to much, time off.  No way they bleed that to much into week 16.   

Still with all that said I recently added Brown. Lol
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Didn't McVay sit all the starters for the entire preseason?

 
Chaka said:
Didn't McVay sit all the starters for the entire preseason?
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Injuries were the reason for that for all but Gurley.  Game three plans was to play them but 2 starting OL got dinged up and that changed his mind.  Also Game 1 of the regular season is no where near as important as a playoff game (obviously) so if they were a little rusty, which they clearly were in the first half of that game vs the Raiders, it’s no biggie.   Playoffs, no so much.  

 
I thought this thread would discuss how Gurley and the Rams have a BYE Week 12, which is the first week of playoffs in the FFPC. 

 
Tejas said:
I thought this thread would discuss how Gurley and the Rams have a BYE Week 12, which is the first week of playoffs in the FFPC. 
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That’s a bit of good news personally, lol.  I don’t have him there but do have Bell

 
Back in the day, the Rams had their playoff spot secured and were supposedly going to bench Faulk and Warner. I benched them both in the championship game and they both played a half and totally went off. I lost, but if I would have just played one of them I would have won.

never again

 
I have Brown hanging out on the bench.

I just realized that in my league scoring, Gurley has the same points as Elliot and D Johnson combined. He is literally scoring what 2 top RBs are scoring. 

 
downsouth said:
I have Brown hanging out on the bench.

I just realized that in my league scoring, Gurley has the same points as Elliot and D Johnson combined. He is literally scoring what 2 top RBs are scoring. 
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D Johnson is not a top RB, unless you strictly meant preseason ranking of course.

 
If the Rams lock up home field early, which is likely to happen, Gurley won’t see the field in weeks 16 or 17.  Book it.  Guy didn’t play a snap in the pre season and didn’t miss a beat.  He will be rested.  Brown is more than capabale and they likely win with him in there anyway.  

Gurley owners need to pray the Saints keep marching in.  

Shark play if they build a two game plus lead after week 13 is to roster Brown.  

 
There's not a ton of precedent for teams resting starters in Week 16. The only one I can think of is Colts in '09, where they were undefeated, had wrapped up the No. 1 seed, and were beating the Jets at halftime of Week 16. Caldwell pulled the starters, Jets came back, and Buffalo killed them the next week. (Worth pointing out that, despite the narrative of "Peyton's teams always rested starters and then flamed out in the playoffs", they made the Super Bowl that year.)

But generally, the resting starters thing really only comes into play in Week 17. So my guess is, despite all the worries, that pattern will repeat this year.

 
Chaka said:
Yup. Gurley owners should root hard for New Orleans to win that one.
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Or maybe they should root for the Rams to stay undefeated, since then there will be more pressure on McVay to keep playing his starters. Hard to imagine a 14-0 Rams team going into Week 16 and trotting out Mannion and Brown.

 
zftcg said:
Or maybe they should root for the Rams to stay undefeated, since then there will be more pressure on McVay to keep playing his starters. Hard to imagine a 14-0 Rams team going into Week 16 and trotting out Mannion and Brown.
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Play the starters for a few drives and let em watch the win from the bench.

 
matuski said:
Play the starters for a few drives and let em watch the win from the bench.
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Again, there's not much precedent for that happening in Week 16 (as opposed to 17, where it happens all the time). Other than maybe handcuffing Gurley and not relying on Goff as my only QB, I'm not sure there are a ton of fantasy moves I would make around the remote possibility that it happens.

 
zftcg said:
Again, there's not much precedent for that happening in Week 16 (as opposed to 17, where it happens all the time). Other than maybe handcuffing Gurley and not relying on Goff as my only QB, I'm not sure there are a ton of fantasy moves I would make around the remote possibility that it happens.
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There isn't much precedent for sitting them for the whole game, I imagine there is precedent for sitting them once a comfortable lead against a bad team is established.

No idea how to track that info down.

Doesn't happen that often that a team is undefeated at that point.  Playoff locked teams will limit snaps/throws - that is not uncommon.  I know the Patriots for several years played Brady entire games at the end of locked up seasons for example - but he would only throw the ball 18-20 times.  I believe that was an article a couple years back from here.

 
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Having said all that - arguing other teams' histories doesn't necessarily apply to the Rams.  Ignore that post.  ?‍♂️

We don't know what they would do because they haven't done it.  I think we find out this year!

 
Trying for one last 2 for 1 trade to free up a spot for Brown. If course, Brown won't get half the points Gurley gets on his worst day. 

 
Ok maybe we do have some history.

Week 17 last year. Needed to win to lock up 3rd seed (with a loss they needed help from Carolina - which happened).

McVay sat ALL of them.  Add that to what we saw in the preseason, I'd be rooting for that week 16 game to mean something.

 
matuski said:
Having said all that - arguing other teams' histories doesn't necessarily apply to the Rams.  Ignore that post.  ?‍♂️

We don't know what they would do because they haven't done it.  I think we find out this year!
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On this we agree completely. There are also plenty of examples of guys putting up enough stats in a half to justify a start. There are also examples of guys getting minor injuries they might otherwise play through but sitting to be safe.

I guess my logic is, because we don't know how it will play out, I wouldn't make any drastic moves beyond making sure I'm covered in case they do sit (and that doesn't even necessarily mean handcuffing. If your RB3 would be more valuable than Malcolm Brown with a full workload, there's no need to cuff). Then again, I don't own Gurley, though if his owner wanted to unload him, I would gladly take that "risk" off his hands.

 
zftcg said:
Or maybe they should root for the Rams to stay undefeated, since then there will be more pressure on McVay to keep playing his starters. Hard to imagine a 14-0 Rams team going into Week 16 and trotting out Mannion and Brown.
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I doubt it. That doesn't seem to be the way McVay rolls at all. 14-2 followed by 3-0 is way better than 16-0 followed by 2-1.

The second they clinch home field the starters are on short reps at best.

 
Chaka said:
I doubt it. That doesn't seem to be the way McVay rolls at all. 14-2 followed by 3-0 is way better than 16-0 followed by 2-1.

The second they clinch home field the starters are on short reps at best.
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I just feel like people are too confident that they know McVay's MO based on Week 17 last year and pre-season this year. The latter is irrelevant, IMO. The former tells us something, but it's one data point. Maybe the lesson he took away from last year was that he made a mistake. Maybe he puts more weight on an undefeated season than he did on the difference between a 3 and 4 seed. Maybe he doesn't want to rest starters in Weeks 16 and 17 because that would mean three weeks off. We don't know any of this stuff.

I evaluate situations like this as "What's most likely to happen, and based on that likelihood, how do I mitigate risk in a way that doesn't hurt me too much if I'm wrong?" Based on historical precedent, they are unlikely to completely rest starters in Week 16, though of course it is still possible. Panic-trading Gurley would be a massive overreaction to a low-probability event. Handcuffing him, meanwhile, is a low-risk, high-reward move (though not if you have to drop, say, Nick Chubb to get Brown).

Related question: Has there ever been any large-scale analysis regarding whether teams that rest starters late in the season have better playoff records than those who don't? You'd have to control for a lot of factors (teams that rest starters are probably better to begin with and more likely to have home field advantage, so you would assume they'd do better) but it would be interesting to see if it's possible to isolate that variable.

 
Hu-Tang Clan said:
D Johnson is not a top RB, unless you strictly meant preseason ranking of course.
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Sure. We can go with preseason. Or another fun example: Gurley = Elliot/A Brown. I think they are both near the top of their positions. just giving some fun perspective. 

 
matuski said:
Ok maybe we do have some history.

Week 17 last year. Needed to win to lock up 3rd seed (with a loss they needed help from Carolina - which happened).

McVay sat ALL of them.  Add that to what we saw in the preseason, I'd be rooting for that week 16 game to mean something.
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There’s context to this though.  The Rams didn’t want the 3rd seed.  They (and others) wanted the opportunity to face Nick Foles in Round 2, which was impossible from the 3 seed.  But it blew up in their face when Carolina (and the Saints) also lost.

 
ATB said:
Not entirely true. Totally possible for Rams to sit their starters in a blowout for the second half in week 16 too. 
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While that's totally possible (even probable) that's also true for any week.  It's happened multiple times this year already, not the full half but most of, if not all the 4th Q.   Gurley's points as crazy as they are, are still stunted because of this.  In fact over the last few weeks Brown has been getting full series through out the game when they are in control to manage Gurley's touches.   

 
dkp993 said:
While that's totally possible (even probable) that's also true for any week.  It's happened multiple times this year already, not the full half but most of, if not all the 4th Q.   Gurley's points as crazy as they are, are still stunted because of this.  In fact over the last few weeks Brown has been getting full series through out the game when they are in control to manage Gurley's touches.   
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Fair. But it's far more likely when rest is paramount for upcoming playoffs. Like, in a recent blowout, I remember Gurley still getting run either late in the 3rd or early in the 4th, and I was super surprised. 

If that had been week 16 and home field advantage was locked up, Gurley is sitting for the whole second half for sure. 

 
ATB said:
Fair. But it's far more likely when rest is paramount for upcoming playoffs. Like, in a recent blowout, I remember Gurley still getting run either late in the 3rd or early in the 4th, and I was super surprised. 

If that had been week 16 and home field advantage was locked up, Gurley is sitting for the whole second half for sure. 
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Agreed

 
There's just not a ton you can do.  You'd be wrong to trade him for someone else just because of this.  You can hold Malcolm Brown, but what's your opportunity cost?  I've got him in a deep league.  I couldn't justify cutting anyone for him in a shorter bench league.  

Keep some depth at the position, pay attention to the reports, and respond accordingly.  This isn't the 1st time this issue has been considered in regards to elite players and fantasy playoffs.  You've got to get to the championship game for it to matter.  Gurley can get you there.

 
If the prediction is that Gurley is going to play only one half of week 16, Brown is not going to be any help.  I’d rather have a half of Gurley than a half of Brown.  If Gurley is going to sit the entire game, that likely means Goff and possibly others will as well.  Brown will have opportunity, but surrounded by a crippled offense.  

 
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