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KarmaPolice

DraftKings Week 9

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Saw this one had a reply so I'm going to post here.

First thoughts for cash, this was before I even looked at pricing. 

QB's - I like Rivers, Trubisky, Wilson, Newton, Goff, Brees, or Mayfield.  Mayfield seems particularly dangerous though with the whole coaches fired business going on. 

WR's - Any of these WR's in these stacked games pretty much.  Chargers/Seahawks, Rams/Saints (maybe I'll avoid this one), Packers/Patriots, and the sneaky plays I like are the Dallas WR's.  Most first thoughts were these guys:  Robert Woods, or Cooks, Chris Godwin, Funchess, DJ Moore, Gallup, Beasley, Lockett, Thielen, Diggs, Davante Adams or Cobb, maybe even some Amendola.  Not quite sure how I feel on some of them but there's lots of cheap options to pay up at RB again which is what I've done all year.

RB's - Pay up.  I assume Gurley, Zeke, Kamara and McCaffrey are all expensive, and out of that bunch I like McCaffrey the best this week.  He's an instant lock in all cash lineups for me this week.  Other RB's that caught my eye in matchups that didn't scare me - James White, Aaron Jones, Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Crowell, and Melvin Gordon.  I didn't find a whole lot of interesting guys this week so I'm thinking the variations of lineups might be a bit lower this week.  Aaron Jones is another that seems more GPP but his role seems to be growing and what might be the highest total all week people will want a piece of that (James White seems safe enough).  The other's seem "iffy". 

TE's - Burton, Olsen, McDonald, Njoku, Cook, Graham and lastly Gronk if he's priced reasonably.  He has basically sucked up until this point so maybe he's cheap. 

If anyone has good ideas on Defense I'll happily use that information because I'm the worst at picking those.  It's worked out maybe 2 times this year but luckily I've still been successful in my cash lineups. 

I'll post again tomorrow after I get a good look at pricing on what my expected cash lineup will be. 

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7 hours ago, Zyphros said:

If anyone has good ideas on Defense I'll happily use that information because I'm the worst at picking those.  It's worked out maybe 2 times this year but luckily I've still been successful in my cash lineups. 

 

I've had a LITTLE more luck after reading an article about picking Ds in dfs.  Basically it said to ignore vegas totals and focus on OL and DL stats.  Essentially saying that the points are generated mostly on sacks, ints, and fumbles stemming from pressure, and hardly ever about points allowed.   RG has a great quick look chart that grades the DL vs. OL each week, so I usually write the top 7-10 plays on that and pick a cheap option out of that and lean towards home teams.   This week the list was (in order):  Houst, Clev, Buff, Tenn, Min, Dallas, Seat, Atl, Denv, Chic.     Bolded are home teams.   I am kind of leaning Buffalo and Denver on the cheap myself - both are 2.3K.  Min would probably be a "safer" bet, but it seems like President Trump are even more volatile this year than normal, so I have been trying to get Ds at 2.5K or less to make room other positions.  

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10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I've had a LITTLE more luck after reading an article about picking Ds in dfs.  Basically it said to ignore vegas totals and focus on OL and DL stats.  Essentially saying that the points are generated mostly on sacks, ints, and fumbles stemming from pressure, and hardly ever about points allowed.   RG has a great quick look chart that grades the DL vs. OL each week, so I usually write the top 7-10 plays on that and pick a cheap option out of that and lean towards home teams.   This week the list was (in order):  Houst, Clev, Buff, Tenn, Min, Dallas, Seat, Atl, Denv, Chic.     Bolded are home teams.   I am kind of leaning Buffalo and Denver on the cheap myself - both are 2.3K.  Min would probably be a "safer" bet, but it seems like President Trump are even more volatile this year than normal, so I have been trying to get Ds at 2.5K or less to make room other positions.  

Is that GPP or cash options?  I assume its both considering you're going cheap and focusing on pressure (which is where you say points come from mostly), so you're safe either way and going lower owned in GPP like Buffalo.  I always thought of D's as corners and edge guys (partially right?), so this will be a new thought process for me.  I've generally stuck to ones at home as well but that gets harder to do the cheaper you go.  I'll give some of these a try, thanks.

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40 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Is that GPP or cash options?  I assume its both considering you're going cheap and focusing on pressure (which is where you say points come from mostly), so you're safe either way and going lower owned in GPP like Buffalo.  I always thought of D's as corners and edge guys (partially right?), so this will be a new thought process for me.  I've generally stuck to ones at home as well but that gets harder to do the cheaper you go.  I'll give some of these a try, 

Dont play much cash, but have looked at the list for both before.  For cash I would consider teams like Minn, Chicago, and houst.  Gpp darts would be something like Cleveland.   Personally, I like Buffalo and Denver either way since they are on the list, home, and cheap.  Chicago feels too pricey, but they are more doable for me on Dk than FD this week. 

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Also, in gpp dont be afraid to play a D vs other options you like.  There have been teams this season that have let 25+pts get scored, but still scored fantasy points because they got sacks and a pick 6 as the other team was coming from behind.   

Ie Hopkins and Denver D in the same lineup isn't necessarily a bad thing.  

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Interesting podcast this week from 4for4 where they broke down stats on what has been winning the Milly-maker on DK this year.  No surprise for some of it, but:

Qb:  average QB salary was 5.5k, and I think they said only 1 was above 6K.  This is one that I thought was weird, as I figured it would be Mahomes just about every week, but it's probably because....

RB:  Most of the time there were 2 RBs at 7K+, so people are paying up for the main and chalky Rbs.   Makes sense, as they get the touches.

Flex:  pretty sure they said that over 1/2 the time the flex was a WR.  Basically at this price range you are getting into part time RBs with limited touches, so a WR might have more ceiling and go off for 100+ and a TD on a couple big plays than a sub-par RB will on 8 carries.  

TE:  Since they have been junk this year, people have been paying up a tad more than in the past at TE.  It's been harder this year to get a guy like a sub 4K Witten that can keep it close to a Kelce or Ertz.  

 

Overall, they said to try to avoid the chalk in the one-off positions, esp TE and Def since they are so volatile - and that a lot of times the LUs at the top have single digit ownership in one or two of those spots.  

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Also, they were talking that multiple stacks/correlation plays in the same LU, and that they were seeing that more and more since the scoring has jacked up and the KCs and LaRs are that much better than the Buffalos and Oaks.   So in the same LU, something like:  Goff/Kupp/Gurley  + Hunt/Kelce + Howard/Chicago

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What are others thoughts on stacking players in cash games?  This week Cam seems like a great play, but so does Funchess.  

I am playing both in my cash game, but worry about the volatility with 2 players depending on Cam's performance.

Here is my cash lineup for now:

Cam, Hunt, Cohen, Woods, Sutton, Funchess, OJHoward, Chubb, Bears

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34 minutes ago, BillyJoeBob said:

What are others thoughts on stacking players in cash games?  This week Cam seems like a great play, but so does Funchess.  

I am playing both in my cash game, but worry about the volatility with 2 players depending on Cam's performance.

Here is my cash lineup for now:

Cam, Hunt, Cohen, Woods, Sutton, Funchess, OJHoward, Chubb, Bears

I am personally not against it if it's a team with a high total.  More than Qb-Wr, I will go Qb-Rb to secure access to all the team TDs.  I was thinking about Cam-McCaffrey today.  

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36 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am surprised at all the paying down at RB for you guys in cash this week.  Makes me more nervous about my LU.  

I only have 2 GPP lineups this week and one includes Gurley and Hunt.  

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50 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am surprised at all the paying down at RB for you guys in cash this week.  Makes me more nervous about my LU.  

Half my gpps I paid up for Gurly and the others I paid up for Theilin/Sanders/Julio so dropped down to Kamara,Connor,Hunt and McCaffrey in those.

Good luck all!

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8 hours ago, TripItUp said:

My 50/50 Lineup

Fitzmagic

LIndsay

Chubb

M. Thomas

Sanders

Golladay

Howard

CMC

Dolphins

Easy winner, CMC, Thomas and Dolphins D were huge for me.  

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Easy winner, CMC, Thomas and Dolphins D were huge for me.  

Congrats.  

I missed the 2x line by .60pts.  Sad when 150 doesn't get it done on DK.  

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