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WR N'Keal Harry - CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I see three possibilites. They are not elite prospects, but I see three guys who I think have WR1 ceilings.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Heard another fantasy podcaster (who I really don't think is any more knowledgable than any of us- especially on draft stuff) say he doesn't get the appeal of Harry. He said he has gone back for a 3rd time to watch and he doesn't see anything appealing about him. Does he have the wrong number or something when he is watching ASU games? I don't get how anyone can watch some of his plays this year and think he's not good.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I've been back and forth on Harry vs Metcalf vs Brown and I think I've made my predraft decision on who I would prefer. It's a matter of getting the draft over at this point. I've seen mocks that make me excited about each of these guys, as well as scenarios where I'd probably pass completely.
However, to watch Harry and act like you dont understand the hype... that's nuts. Chris Simms left him off his top 5, which is surprising. However his top 5 were basically the order in which guys ran the 40 (or were predicted to in Marquis Browns case)
However, to watch Harry and act like you dont understand the hype... that's nuts. Chris Simms left him off his top 5, which is surprising. However his top 5 were basically the order in which guys ran the 40 (or were predicted to in Marquis Browns case)
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He had a bit of an unusual background. He was born in Canada but then moved at a young age to the Grenadines. His family then sent him with his grandmother in Arizona because they recognized his athletic gifts and wanted him to try out some sports to see if he had a future. He chose football and became a 5 star recruit with offers from lots of big schools (USA, Oregon, etc) but he wanted to stay in the area near his grandmother.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
How can he be undervalued when everyone is calling him a top 3 pick? And I'm seeing 1.01 more and more.
I don't get the consensus opinion on him. I could understand why he's in the discussion. I could understand a certain percentage ranking him top 3 or even 1.01. But his profile is not strong enough to warrant the slam dunk, race to the podium type selection I keep reading on here.
This year as much as any in recent memory, all these rankings should be written in invisible ink until after the actual draft. Draft capital and landing spot will far and away be my top two factors when parsing between these prospects. Getting stuck on anyone at this point seems nuts to me, these prospects are all over the place.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think we meant more for the team NFL draft. There’s people saying there are 5 better WRs or that he’s a 3rd round player.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I know I'm down on the guy relative to the rest of you guys, but I don't see how this is a feather in his cap.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm trying to get my head around it too. I'm not going to pretend I know more than these guys who do it for a living. as often as they are wrong, I'm probably wrong more. I was quite proud of my 2018 success though
skinfanjon
Footballguy
There are a ton of good WR prospects in this draft. He could EASILY end up outside the top 5. And I'm a Skins fan, we desperately need a receiver, and I would sure hope that we don't burn a 1st or 2nd on him. The depth of the position should push the lower ceilings guys down.
Gandalf
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Put Harry in the Skins and I promise you'll be terribly disappointed. We are not a franchise to nurture WRs the way the need. Deebo, maybe Marquise would have a decent shot with us. They would fit our system. You put guys like Metcalf, Harry, or Butler on our squad and we'll all have a bad time. Basically any type of X or Y exclusive receiver will underwhelm.
^And this applies to a LOT of teams, on both sides of the coin. Which is why landing spot and draft capital are the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth important factors this year. All of the prospects have pretty big flaws.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I agree landing spot matter immensely. I like a lot of WRs in this draft. We disagree in the size of the flaws
skinfanjon
Footballguy
It's not like I'm out on some limb here. His official draft profile is "chance to become an NFL starter". We'll see when he goes though soon enough. Maybe everyone is sandbagging the perceived lack of interest.
I'm just saying, we can all take the next month off and just wait. There's not much else to be gained at this point.
Gandalf
Footballguy
I think the biggest question mark for Harry is how his game will translate to the NFL. He's shown propensity to win contested catches, but is that because he is not athletic enough to win/get himself open? Are his routes so bad that he can't shake defenders? Is he just a jump ball-type receiver who will be a red zone threat and little else?
His breakout age looks tremendous, but I would like to see him go to a team that has proven ability to develop WRs, and there really aren't that many of those.
His breakout age looks tremendous, but I would like to see him go to a team that has proven ability to develop WRs, and there really aren't that many of those.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
if he is drafted into a slot role, as this article suggests, would your opinion of where he may fit in rookie drafts change?
skinfanjon
Footballguy
My opinion about every single prospect in this draft will be HEAVILY influenced by landing spot and draft capital. To the point that almost everything up until now is useless. Like, I have 20% of the information I need to make a decision right now.
So yes, definitely.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
It's the "forgone conclusion" vibe that I've objected to more than anything in this thread. He could end up 1.01 on my board still.
ETA- I still don't think there are many teams creative enough to get the most out of him. Wherever he goes, I'll be listening carefully to the comments coaches make after the selection and looking closely at how they've employed receivers in their system previously.
ETA- I still don't think there are many teams creative enough to get the most out of him. Wherever he goes, I'll be listening carefully to the comments coaches make after the selection and looking closely at how they've employed receivers in their system previously.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The whole separation thing is exaggerated. It got mentioned as a potential weakness and then everyone repeats it so many times it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy where he is now considered a slower version of Laquon Treadwell.
He may not be Antonio Brown, but he's a reasonably agile dude. You don't have 3000 yards receiving in a power 5 conference by just catching a bunch of jump balls.
Gandalf
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
From the article:
No one can honestly make the argument that separation concerns are not a major worry for a receiver’s ceiling at the NFL level. The best wide receivers in the game consistently get open on a route-by-route basis. However, lack of elite play speed and separation concerns are not death blows to a wideout’s pro prospects, not with the game as it is today. There are ways to mitigate those flaws.
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Basically the whole point of the article is he has to land somewhere that accentuates his positive traits and overcomes his negatives, which are getting open against tight man.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Had 17 contested catches in 2018. Or put another way, he had 56 catches that were not contested. Because he was....cough cough.....open.
Sure, but as one of the NCAA leaders in number of contested catches I’d imagine he is on the high side of percentage of total catches as being contested. Meaning, presumably, he’s unable to shake free as frequently as some of his peers are.
Regardless, I too think too much is made of that now. He’s an excellent WR prospect that is being dissected just as every prospect is at this time of the year. I love his shake and sudden movement for a WR that big, but his inability to blow by coverage is potentially a bit of a limiting factor.
ZWK
Footballguy
A lot of those 56 catches were screens and other underneath stuff. See the Stanford and Washington games, for instance.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
I'd really like to see a breakdown of his performance against man vs. zone coverage.
Also I can't believe no one wants to talk about that awesome and thought provoking article. Oh wait...
Also I can't believe no one wants to talk about that awesome and thought provoking article. Oh wait...
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I think most of us have said repeatedly that his destination is everything. Gandalf has been about as fickle on his 1.1 as me the last 3 months, but I think that's just our thought process working itself out and I know neither one of us would commit to anyone at 1.1 until the NFL draft. In fact, I think that's been the theme in these threads that's been a foregone conclusion: it all depends on landing spot.
No one is a definitive 1.1 this draft, but it's a real deep draft where someone could land in a good spot and 3 people in a poor spot and suddenly Butler is the 1.1.
I dont see this thread as definitive at all. it seems fairly fluid to me. Just people who dont buy into separation being as big of a deal for Harry as others
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As a bit of a data junkie I don't really find a ton of value in that article. The conclusions that you (and to a lessor extent the author) are drawing from the data don't really line up with what the data is actually showing.
The only mention of separation is that article is where he says he noticed anecdotally that he thought Harry struggled to separate at times. But again that can easily be a self fulfilling prophecy. You go in looking for a guy who has a narrative that he can't separate and your focus ends up on plays where he doesn't separate, regardless of whether or not that's actually happening more often than with other top receiver prospects.
All of the data in that article references only how often the position he was playing is likely to face man/press coverage compared to someone that is always lining up as the X. It's kind of a silly thing to speculate on anyway because the actual data on how often he actually faced man/press coverage is probably out there anyway, so why even bother trying to make predictions on something you can actually physically count?
Regardless, even if he were giving us the actual numbers and not just statistical speculation, all that he's speculating on is how often he faced man/press coverage. He's not actually giving any data on how he performed against man/press coverage, or how much separation he typically gained in those scenarios compared to other players.
In short, the article says nothing about his ability to separate other than an anecdotal side note at the start.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Considering I haven't seen anyone in here talk about whether he'll line up in the slot, or discuss man vs. zone tendencies, or comps to JuJu...nevermind
Zyphros
Footballguy
"In an NFL offensive landscape that’s almost unrecognizable from what we saw from the game even just five years ago" yet he uses 5 year old data. I don't hate Harmon (Kelvin is good) but this just sounds like complete fluff and garbage excuses for a WR we "should" be high on. I like Harry enough and agree with the article that he's more "creative" dependent than some other WR's but come on.
ETA: my mistake, he used data from 2014 and on not stopping at 2014. Didn't edit my original post just correcting myself ha.
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ZWK
Footballguy
According to numbers in the PFF draft guide, this year Harry ran 32% of his routes from the slot. From the slot he caught 22 of 29 targets (76% catch rate) for 13.8 YPT and 3.07 yards per route run. On his other routes he caught 51 of 84 targets (61% catch rate) for 8.2 YPT and 2.54 yards per route run.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why would they talk about those things?
He provides no data and makes no claims that Harry is actually better in any of those scenarios that he claims Harry needs to be put into in order to succeed.
It would be one thing if he were giving us data about how Harry is much worse against man coverage and much worse against press coverage so he needs to end up with a team that is going to make sure he doesn't end up in those scenarios. But he does absolutely none of the former.
The crux of the article is "The position that N'Keal Harry lined up in generally faces man/press coverage less often therefore Harry will need a team that doesn't put him in man/press coverage to be successful". For all we know Harry was actually better against man/press coverage than he was against zone. The author jumps to his conclusion without making any claims or providing any data about how Harry actually fares in man/press scenarios. And heck, for all we know Harry played against man/press coverage more than average. Again the author provides no data on Harry's splits, just the position he plays.
That article was like saying "Christian McCaffrey plays running back, and running backs don't usually catch 80+ passes so McCaffrey needs to land on a team that is never going to throw him the ball to be successful".
What the author is providing data on and the conclusion he draws from it are only tangentially related. As a data geek, it was a silly article.
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skinfanjon
Footballguy
skinfanjon
Footballguy
Yeah, not gonna waste anymore time posting in this thread.
higgins
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
he owns picks 3 and 5. Its a little obvious he is talking down harry so he slips to 1.3. otherwise, why talk a guy down you might be stuck with, partly because you talked him down?
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Seemed like everyone said Hopkins was safe but had a low ceiling when he came out. Keenan Allen would be another one. The redskins should me Zthrilled to draft a solid wr in the first. The last good wr they took was Keenan McCardell in 1991 and he never saw the field with them.
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