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Question for Gurley Owners (1 Viewer)

Keith1

Keith1

Footballguy
So, if you are a Gurley owner, in all likelihood, you are doing well and have your eyes on the playoffs. Here's the question: how much of a priority is it for you to grab Malcolm Brown ? I outsmarted myself in my draft (12 teams, 0.5 PPR) and took John Kelly instead. Someone else in my league scooped up Brown in the last round, and has rejected all trade overtures. Basically he believes that the Rams will "rest" Gurley late in the season and that Brown will carry the load (Brown scored this week, which of course has him saying: "see, I told you so"). The Rams losing to the Saints helps a bit, because one would think it will take that much longer for the Rams to wrap up home field throughout the playoffs. 

So, how much should a Gurley owner be willing to over-pay for a guy you hope never gets off your bench ? In my league, the guy with Brown has insisted on a "first line weekly starter" in return. I have rejected all of his ridiculous trade demands, and he has rejected all of what I believe to be reasonable offers. Trade deadline in my league is a week away. The Brown owner now says he will do me "a favor" and trade him for Duke Johnson. 

Thoughts ?

 
Keith1 said:
So, if you are a Gurley owner, in all likelihood, you are doing well and have your eyes on the playoffs. Here's the question: how much of a priority is it for you to grab Malcolm Brown ? I outsmarted myself in my draft (12 teams, 0.5 PPR) and took John Kelly instead. Someone else in my league scooped up Brown in the last round, and has rejected all trade overtures. Basically he believes that the Rams will "rest" Gurley late in the season and that Brown will carry the load (Brown scored this week, which of course has him saying: "see, I told you so"). The Rams losing to the Saints helps a bit, because one would think it will take that much longer for the Rams to wrap up home field throughout the playoffs. 

So, how much should a Gurley owner be willing to over-pay for a guy you hope never gets off your bench ? In my league, the guy with Brown has insisted on a "first line weekly starter" in return. I have rejected all of his ridiculous trade demands, and he has rejected all of what I believe to be reasonable offers. Trade deadline in my league is a week away. The Brown owner now says he will do me "a favor" and trade him for Duke Johnson. 

Thoughts ?
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If your goal is to find a filler for the championship week when you suspect Gurley will be rested, overpaying for Gurley's back-up isn't the only option you have.  Any other RB could be a viable starter that week if you look at match-ups and the still-to-be determined injuries between now and then.  

If you're looking for the handcuff to Gurley b/c you're worried about injury, then Brown has more value to you, but that doesn't seem to be the real reason you want him.

I usually let folks who hold key back-ups just have them.  They're rarely worth the asking price, and they're shooting themselves in the foot rostering a guy who has minimal value here and now.  Just tell him he can keep him and you'll look elsewhere.  He might just drop him.

 
I drafted Brown, and have held him all season. He’s a terrific RB who I was able to land with the last pick before K & D/ST, and thus made a great, cheap handcuff.

he doesn’t have weekly stand-alone value but it Gurley were to (knock on wood) get hurt Brown would be a weekly plug & play RB1 in an exciting offense. 

So if I did not have him, I would make efforts to obtain him.  Not just for a scenario as described, but because in general I like to have my top player insured. 

 
I have held him (brown) for 2 years in dynasty once I saw he resigned after last season when he was doing well in relief, so I don't have this worry injury/playoff and we also have our playoff games in weeks 13-15 so less likely of any sitting issues, but like hot sauce guy above I would overpay to get him if needed.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I drafted Brown, and have held him all season. He’s a terrific RB who I was able to land with the last pick before K & D/ST, and thus made a great, cheap handcuff.

he doesn’t have weekly stand-alone value but it Gurley were to (knock on wood) get hurt Brown would be a weekly plug & play RB1 in an exciting offense. 

So if I did not have him, I would make efforts to obtain him.  Not just for a scenario as described, but because in general I like to have my top player insured. 
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So HSG, the question is, how much would you pay, or over-pay, as the case may be ? Personally, I have Diggs, Gronk and Keke all with injury issues, so I definitely plan to use Duke--especially in week 10 against the Falcons. 

 
What do we think of this kid in keeper leagues? Brown I mean. Is he worth a stash as a guy who could be signed to start somewhere next year?

 
Keith1 said:
So HSG, the question is, how much would you pay, or over-pay, as the case may be ? Personally, I have Diggs, Gronk and Keke all with injury issues, so I definitely plan to use Duke--especially in week 10 against the Falcons. 
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On this forum I try to post in the abstract and discuss players at a high level. 

Your specific question about your team is much better suited to the AC forum. 

But I’ll make an exception - you’re screwed. That owner has you by the nads, and is making a BS excuse to pry value from you. 

He sees your concern and is capitalizing on it, trying to maximize return with a bogus. (albeit believable) scenario. 

As long as the Saints & other teams are neck in neck with their records, there is absolutely no reason for the Rams to rest any of their players, and IMO it’s not in their coach’s nature to do so anyway. 

Playoff seeding, home field advantage, etc - all important. And it’s not like Gurley has the same workload as a RB that runs into a pile 20x a game since he’s so often used as a receiver. 

Long story short, you’re particularly screwed because it’ll cost you an unrealistic amount for a handcuff. I would never pay that much for one, and I don’t recommend you do either. 

The good news is that you wouldn’t need him unless Gurley went down with injury. In which case the HC becomes the next Larry Johnson, carrying teams to victory. 

TL:DR, don’t make that deal & cross your fingers that Gurley stays healthy. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
On this forum I try to post in the abstract and discuss players at a high level. 

Your specific question about your team is much better suited to the AC forum. 

But I’ll make an exception - you’re screwed. That owner has you by the nads, and is making a BS excuse to pry value from you. 

He sees your concern and is capitalizing on it, trying to maximize return with a bogus. (albeit believable) scenario. 

As long as the Saints & other teams are neck in neck with their records, there is absolutely no reason for the Rams to rest any of their players, and IMO it’s not in their coach’s nature to do so anyway. 

Playoff seeding, home field advantage, etc - all important. And it’s not like Gurley has the same workload as a RB that runs into a pile 20x a game since he’s so often used as a receiver. 

Long story short, you’re particularly screwed because it’ll cost you an unrealistic amount for a handcuff. I would never pay that much for one, and I don’t recommend you do either. 

The good news is that you wouldn’t need him unless Gurley went down with injury. In which case the HC becomes the next Larry Johnson, carrying teams to victory. 

TL:DR, don’t make that deal & cross your fingers that Gurley stays healthy. 
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Really didn't mean to make it an AC forum question. Apologies in that regard. I was looking for general thoughts---although I do have a specific situation going here.

Appreciate the responses. Interestingly they seem to be on both sides of the equation. 

 
davearm said:
Duke Johnson is perfectly fair.  Certainly well short of a "first line weekly starter".
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I think it’s dramatically overpaying for a bench-worthy handcuff though. 

I don’t see it as perfectly fair at all.  Ideally it would be a 4th or 5th back, or a 2nd TE, or maybe a handcuff for a handcuff.

this isn’t Ekeler here, who has weekly flex value. The only reason Brown had that receiving TD is because Gurley got something in his eye on the long run & Moses the red zone series. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I think it’s dramatically overpaying for a bench-worthy handcuff though. 

I don’t see it as perfectly fair at all.  Ideally it would be a 4th or 5th back, or a 2nd TE, or maybe a handcuff for a handcuff.

this isn’t Ekeler here, who has weekly flex value. The only reason Brown had that receiving TD is because Gurley got something in his eye on the long run & Moses the red zone series. 
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Ideally for you?  He picked up Brown for a reason, as a lottery ticket.  Is he in such dire straights that a 4th or 5th back or a 2nd TE is going to do him any good?  If not, why cash in your lottery ticket for some junk that has virtually no upside?

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I think it’s dramatically overpaying for a bench-worthy handcuff though. 

I don’t see it as perfectly fair at all.  Ideally it would be a 4th or 5th back, or a 2nd TE, or maybe a handcuff for a handcuff.

this isn’t Ekeler here, who has weekly flex value. The only reason Brown had that receiving TD is because Gurley got something in his eye on the long run & Moses the red zone series. 
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Duke is also just a bench-worthy handcuff.

The guy is obviously holding Brown for the upside.  Offer him similar upside, and maybe he makes a deal.  A 2nd TE has almost no upside.

I'm holding Spencer Ware.  If someone offered me a guy like Crowell or Barber or Dion Lewis, it'd be an easy no.  I want the HR, not the solid single.

 
Cobbler1 said:
What do we think of this kid in keeper leagues? Brown I mean. Is he worth a stash as a guy who could be signed to start somewhere next year?
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Brown is a fairly big sleeper of mine for 2019. He’ll be a FA & there’s some teams who could use a RB. The 2019 RB class is weak, as well.

I’d venture to say if Gurley went down, you’re looking at a top-5 RB. Brown is talented & the word is getting out by his play. He’s averaging over 5 YPC (higher than Gurley’s) & when you consider when Brown typically gets carries (at the end of the games when opposing Ds are expecting run), it’s quite impressive.

Brown makes a nice stash considering he’s still fairly young (25, 26 next season), will be a FA, & has shown to be a good all-around player. He’s not guaranteed to get a starting gig by any means, but you could do a lot worse with your last couple roster spots. 

BTW, another big factor I always look at is price-to-upside ratio & Brown’s is excellent.  The vast majority of people acquired him in waivers or FCFS FA. His only cost was a roster spot.

 
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A 2nd TE has almost no upside.
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He does if the trade partner has no TE. 

In one league I’ve got OJ Howard & Trey Burton. 

I bet I could get a nice return on either. For sure a guy like Brown. 

Its all relative. 

“In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king”. 

Anyway; the 2nd TE was just an example. I don’t know either of their rosters. 

 
I'm holding Spencer Ware.  If someone offered me a guy like Crowell or Barber or Dion Lewis, it'd be an easy no.  I want the HR, not the solid single.
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Yep - that’s why i said he’s screwed. 

He’s forced to pay ceiling value for a floor player because owners are holding a lottery ticket.

no one plays the lottery hoping to win $10. ;)  

 
irish eyes said:
Tell the dope to enjoy holding on to someone who will hardly ever play. If he is being ridiculous on trade offers just ignore him.
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Now’s when I’ll put my “Dave” hat on and say that’s not a great way to continue negotiations. 

Playing it cool, yes - insulting him,  no. This isn’t that far apart. A deal can likely be reached. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Now’s when I’ll put my “Dave” hat on and say that’s not a great way to continue negotiations. 

Playing it cool, yes - insulting him,  no. This isn’t that far apart. A deal can likely be reached. 
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6 weeks ago he asked for Juju straight up. Three weeks ago he asked for James White. Needless to say, I rejected those. I have offered him Crowell and he said no. He is somewhat needy at RB--but most people usually are. I could offer Mike Davis, but he will say no and I need him for week 11 when White, Duke, Crowell and McGuire are all on bye for me. I offered Sterling Shepard but he has OBJ, so he turned that down too. I offered Fitzmagic (he has Brady on bye in week 11) and he said no, he would rather roll with Keenum. Meanwhile, it appears that Cleveland has a VERY strong schedule for RBs the rest of the year. 

Oh the pain....the pain....

 
Keith1 said:
So, if you are a Gurley owner, in all likelihood, you are doing well and have your eyes on the playoffs. Here's the question: how much of a priority is it for you to grab Malcolm Brown ? I outsmarted myself in my draft (12 teams, 0.5 PPR) and took John Kelly instead. Someone else in my league scooped up Brown in the last round, and has rejected all trade overtures. Basically he believes that the Rams will "rest" Gurley late in the season and that Brown will carry the load (Brown scored this week, which of course has him saying: "see, I told you so"). The Rams losing to the Saints helps a bit, because one would think it will take that much longer for the Rams to wrap up home field throughout the playoffs. 

So, how much should a Gurley owner be willing to over-pay for a guy you hope never gets off your bench ? In my league, the guy with Brown has insisted on a "first line weekly starter" in return. I have rejected all of his ridiculous trade demands, and he has rejected all of what I believe to be reasonable offers. Trade deadline in my league is a week away. The Brown owner now says he will do me "a favor" and trade him for Duke Johnson. 

Thoughts ?
Click to expand...
I might be in the minority here, but in general, I'd do the Brown/Duke deal even if your have to do it straight-up. I believe Duke's production last week will be more of an outlier as opposed to steady production.

The one caveat is if you're weak at RB2 & Duke is considered a starter. Otherwise, I take the insurance & give up a little depth.

I'd especially do it if I was close to the favorite in the league as things stand right now. If you're fighting for the playoffs & Duke could possibly be a big part of your success, not so much.

 
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The one caveat is if you're weak at RB2 & Duke is considered a starter. Otherwise, I take the insurance & give up a little depth.

I'd especially do it if I was close to the favorite in the league as things stand right now.
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He said he needed Duke to cover an upcoming BYE. 

Can’t really plug Brown in as anything but a low ceiling boom or bust that’s way more likely to bust than boom. 

Weekly games often come down to a handful of points. Starting a blank is a good way to lose a week. 

So IMO that’s a bit like paying 1 potentially win for a handcuff. To me that’s way too much. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
He said he needed Duke to cover an upcoming BYE. 

Can’t really plug Brown in as anything but a low ceiling boom or bust that’s way more likely to bust than boom. 

Weekly games often come down to a handful of points. Starting a blank is a good way to lose a week. 

So IMO that’s a bit like paying 1 potentially win for a handcuff. To me that’s way too much. 
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Yeah, I didn't see where he said he needed Duke, but that's why I said I'd do it "in general".

I'd need to know more specifics to answer for sure (roster, league standings, etc.).

 
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Football Jones said:
Yeah, I didn't see where he said he needed Duke, but that's why I said I'd do it "in general".

I'd need to know more specifics to answer for sure (roster, league standings, etc.).
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12 team league. Half point PPR. TE counts as WR. 3 divisions of four. I am in 1st place in my division at 7-2. Second place in my division is 6-3. The guy who I am talking with is in third in my division at 4-4-1.

Current roster is: Big Ben, Fitzmagic, Gurley, James White, Crowell, Duke, Elijah McGuire, Mike Davis, Juju, Diggs, Gronk, Shepard, Coutee, Jack Doyle, Jags D, Broncos D, Gostkowski and John Kelly.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
He said he needed Duke to cover an upcoming BYE. 

Can’t really plug Brown in as anything but a low ceiling boom or bust that’s way more likely to bust than boom. 

Weekly games often come down to a handful of points. Starting a blank is a good way to lose a week. 

So IMO that’s a bit like paying 1 potentially win for a handcuff. To me that’s way too much. 
Click to expand...
Well, I would use Duke this week coming up. Actually it is Mike Davis I need during bye week in week 11. 

 
Picked up Brown a while back as a “just in case” back up.  At this point I’m extremely unconsidered about the FF playoffs.  The win yesterday by the Saints showed this is going to be a dog fight to the end.  Week 17 is still a question but that shouldn’t factor in.  It this point I’m only holding Brown now for the unspeakable  (injury).  

 
I have both Brown and Ware and would only trade them for a weekly starter at RB.  I'm set at every position except RB2 so holding these guys far outweighs any 4th or 5th RB option... I have plenty of those guys already.

 
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I would not be very excited about getting Brown for his week 16 potential. In week 16:

maybe the Rams will still be competing for seeding and will go all-out.
maybe they'll want to have their starters play the first half to stay sharp so they don't head into the divisional round after 3 straight weeks off.
maybe they'll rest their starters and give Kelly the majority of the carries since they want to protect Brown more than Kelly.
maybe Brown will carry the load at RB, and their Mannion-led offense will be pretty awful.

Not worth holding him for 6 weeks just his chance at a week 16 opportunity.

Brown gets more value from the possibility of stepping in if Gurley goes down while the Rams are still going all-out. But I still wouldn't pay a lot for him.

 
If you have your post-bye rotation set, I'd be willing to deal just about anyone who isn't in my starting line-up.  I'm not worried about rest, but an injury could derail your playoffs.  And that extra somewhat manufactured depth is way better than your 3rd RB or 4th WR.  I would not trade anyone you project as a starter though.

 
Steeler said:
I have both Brown and Ware and would only trade them for a weekly starter at RB.  I'm set at every position except RB2 so holding these guys far outweighs any 4th or 5th RB option... I have plenty of those guys already.
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The irony of course being that your best trade partner will be if Hunt or Gurley goes down - in which case you wouldn’t trade them anyway because you just got a shiny new RB  :)  

 
dkp993 said:
Picked up Brown a while back as a “just in case” back up.  At this point I’m extremely unconsidered about the FF playoffs.  The win yesterday by the Saints showed this is going to be a dog fight to the end.  Week 17 is still a question but that shouldn’t factor in.  It this point I’m only holding Brown now for the unspeakable  (injury).  
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As a rams fan I’m guessing you hope that you never truly benefit from using Brown. 

 
Keith1 said:
12 team league. Half point PPR. TE counts as WR. 3 divisions of four. I am in 1st place in my division at 7-2. Second place in my division is 6-3. The guy who I am talking with is in third in my division at 4-4-1.

Current roster is: Big Ben, Fitzmagic, Gurley, James White, Crowell, Duke, Elijah McGuire, Mike Davis, Juju, Diggs, Gronk, Shepard, Coutee, Jack Doyle, Jags D, Broncos D, Gostkowski and John Kelly.
Click to expand...
With half-point PPR, I’d be inclined to do the deal, but then again, I’m not big on Duke the rest of the way.

 
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Keith1 said:
So, if you are a Gurley owner, in all likelihood, you are doing well and have your eyes on the playoffs. Here's the question: how much of a priority is it for you to grab Malcolm Brown ? I outsmarted myself in my draft (12 teams, 0.5 PPR) and took John Kelly instead. Someone else in my league scooped up Brown in the last round, and has rejected all trade overtures. Basically he believes that the Rams will "rest" Gurley late in the season and that Brown will carry the load (Brown scored this week, which of course has him saying: "see, I told you so"). The Rams losing to the Saints helps a bit, because one would think it will take that much longer for the Rams to wrap up home field throughout the playoffs. 

So, how much should a Gurley owner be willing to over-pay for a guy you hope never gets off your bench ? In my league, the guy with Brown has insisted on a "first line weekly starter" in return. I have rejected all of his ridiculous trade demands, and he has rejected all of what I believe to be reasonable offers. Trade deadline in my league is a week away. The Brown owner now says he will do me "a favor" and trade him for Duke Johnson. 

Thoughts ?
Click to expand...
Screw that. Just start Duke in Gurley's place if he sits.  If the Rams are resting the starters for the final 2 weeks, which is incredibly unlikely, I'd rather start Duke than Gurley backup. Wouldn't the entire team be coasting if the starters rested? 

 
flapgreen said:
Screw that. Just start Duke in Gurley's place if he sits.  If the Rams are resting the starters for the final 2 weeks, which is incredibly unlikely, I'd rather start Duke than Gurley backup. Wouldn't the entire team be coasting if the starters rested? 
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I guess it is more about Gurley getting hurt  (G_d forbid) than him being rested.

 
I dealt David Moore and Chris Warren for Brown in a dynasty league (as the Gurley owner). I feel very good about that insurance policy even though I like Moore a lot. 

 
I think there's another thread on this exact thing somewhere else in here. 

Nonetheless, I think Gurley being rested in week 16 is pretty unlikely now.  They would need a 3 game lead on the Saints going into week 16 to rest him. 

 
Picked up Brown 2 weeks ago in a league where there were 8 copies available.  Still 7 left.  That said, if something happens to Gurley, I wouldn't get a sniff sitting at ww priority 80.  In this case it's better to be 2 hours early than 2 minutes late.

 
Wooters said:
So just give him Duke Johnson. Who cares if he wins the trade right now. The trade is protection against a Gurley sitting and a Gurley injury. If Gurley gets hurt you’ll be kicking yourself in the ### that you are starting Duke Johnson over Malcolm Brown. 
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Yeah but, now that the Browns coaches have seemingly figured things out, coupled with the fact that the Browns figure to be playing from behind in most games (and the Browns favorable schedule for RBs going forward), I think Duke has some decent value. Would he take the place of Gurley if Gurley went down (G_d forbid) ? Of course not. But trading someone I plan to use as my flex going forward for a guy who I hope NEVER gets off my bench, seems a bit much. Plus, I do have John Kelley, who would certainly get some play in the event of a Gurley injury. 

 
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