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jdoggydogg

FanDuel Week 10

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Thought I'd kick off week 10 with this. Just as an example on how hard it is to win GPPs, here's my all-time win/loss record:

255 wins, 905 losses

And really, that's only 5-10 big wins. So I only had 10 significant wins and 895 losses. I've still won some nice money, so I'm way ahead. But damn these contests are hard to win.

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Ahhhhh the memories. My first winning ticket was $25, and here was the lineup:

QB Jake Locker, TENN 12.26
RB Rashad Jennings NYG 10.9
RB Frank Gore SF 14.5
WR Jordy Nelson GB 31.4
WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 14.6
WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 12.5
TE Jimmy Graham NO 28.8
K Shayne Graham NO 6
D Green Bay Packers 0

Edited by jdoggydogg
Typo

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This week:

QBs: Brees, Dalton, Fitz, Matiota, Peterman

RB: Hunt, Kamara, Gordon, Mixon, Mack

WRS: Adams, Julio, Adams, Fitz, Kupp, Calloway

TE: Doyle

DEF: Who knows (should have went Bears last week to swing me $300)

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1 hour ago, smbkrypt24 said:

This week:

QBs: Brees, Dalton, Fitz, Matiota, Peterman

RB: Hunt, Kamara, Gordon, Mixon, Mack

WRS: Adams, Julio, Adams, Fitz, Kupp, Calloway

TE: Doyle

DEF: Who knows (should have went Bears last week to swing me $300)

Last week I was saying it wasn't worth it to spend $5,000 on Chicago. Boy was I wrong.

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

Last week I was saying it wasn't worth it to spend $5,000 on Chicago. Boy was I wrong.

I was with you.  I openly said not sure its worth it without khalil mack.  Even after saying that I had one lineup with the bears D and took them out.

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53 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I was with you.  I openly said not sure its worth it without khalil mack.  Even after saying that I had one lineup with the bears D and took them out.

Defense feels an awful lot like TE: sometimes it's worth paying up. But you can get burned given the inconsistency at the position. 

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6 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Even after saying that I had one lineup with the bears D and took them out.

The good part: taking Isaiah Crowell out of all my lineups. The bad part: adding Rudolph to three lineups once Diggs was inactive.

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On both sites for most of the week I had Hunt, Conner, and Kamara as my core.  :wall:The downside of playing both sites is sometimes I talk myself out if plays because I dont want 100% exposure to players on both sites so i mix and match.  

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14 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Az Wrs seem way too cheap vs KC even with Rosen throwing them the ball.  

I was actually just looking at the possibility of picking up Fitz in one of my season long leagues to solve a bye week issue...

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Seems like a weird week in that a few trash Os and Qbs are going against the worst Ds.   I really don't love the idea of starting dudes like Rosen, Baker, or many guys that are dependent on them.  

Some cheap guys that I wrote down:

Qb:  Carr, Mariota    In theory both will have to play catch-up, both have flashed 20pt upside, and both are sub 7K

RB:  Duke, D.Lewis - Duke will be hella popular and should be, but D.Lewis has put up back to back 18+pt games and is an interesting gpp pivot off a more popular Duke.  

WR:  they have burnt me all year, but again I like a handful of sub-6K WRs:  Fitz, Corey Davis, Humphries, J.Ross,  Wash WRs, Mia Wrs  are all in potential spots to have to be thrown to a bit and they are all sub-6K.  

TE:  lowest I will probably go is the V.Davis/Reed/Seals-Jones level.  

 

I will be looking at sprinkling/stacking a couple from above with the usual studs.   Like the top 4 RBs as usual and some of the top WR plays.  

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Oh, and remember the T.Hill home/road splits I posted 2 weeks ago - I think it was something like 23pts/g on the road and 9-10 at home or something bad like that.  I will continue my home fade of him until he knocks out a few big games.  

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18 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

This week:

QBs: Brees, Dalton, Fitz, Matiota, Peterman

RB: Hunt, Kamara, Gordon, Mixon, Mack

WRS: Adams, Julio, Adams, Fitz, Kupp, Calloway

TE: Doyle

DEF: Who knows (should have went Bears last week to swing me $300)

My list was mainly studs at first look and I am sure that doesn't help anyone as anyone can name the top priced guys as targets so here is a list of cheaper guys I like.

QB: Mariota, Peterman

RB: Da Johnson, Duke, Coleman

WRs: Calloway, Doctson, 

TE: Still don't know how to play here this week

DEF: Again not sure.  I like Jets, but think they are overpriced, the rest seems like crapshoot.  I had Redskins, but not sure if I can pull the trigger

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Not that many games and stacks that I love this week due to sub par Os being in the good matchups and the good teams like Atl and NO being in the elements on the road.  It might be a mix and match week, but on first glance I like Chargers and think a sneaky game might be the Tenn/NE game.    Something like Mariota/Lewis/Davis/Gordon would allow me to jam in just about any stud I want at RB and flex.    :shrug:

 

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19 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Qb:  Carr, Mariota   

One nice thing about Monday night is perhaps we can consider some of Tenn's skill position players going forward. Never fun to completely eliminate a team's players from consideration across the board. 

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Speaking of inexpensive players:

Carson Wentz is $7,400 - same price as Baker Mayfield and $200 cheap than Alex Smith. Crazy value there.

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Thoughts on week 10:

  • QB: I like Wentz, Alex Smith, Mayfield, Wilson, and Goff.
  • RB: I'm going with Aaron Jones, Duke Johnson, Dion Lewis, Chubb, Gordon, and Mixon.
  • WR: Patterson, Scantling, Kupp, Allen, Boyd, and I'm going back to Mike Evans with a bounce back week. 
  • TE: Vernon Davis, OJ Howard, Njoku, Kittle, and Watson.

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By the way, I'm always rooting for you guys to win. So if I come here and post a winning ticket, it's not to gloat. I figure we're the little people, the underdogs in a sea of sharks that are betting hundreds of tickets a week. So please do post when you win so we can celebrate together. 

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I usually start by trying to cram in 3 stud RBs (Hunt, Gordon & Kamara) and a mid-tier QB (Wilson).

I think Boyd is a near must play, so the starting point above is practically impossible . If I comedown to someone like Mariota, it leaves room for cheap guys everywhere else. Not sure if I’m comfortable with that approach for cash.

Interesting to see Arizona D $500 below minimum.

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7 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

One nice thing about Monday night is perhaps we can consider some of Tenn's skill position players going forward. Never fun to completely eliminate a team's players from consideration across the board. 

C.Davis has been showing up all year when I look at the airyards site as far as opportunity rating, % of team's share, etc..  but besides the one game he hasn't done a ton.  Pats are 7th-8th worst vs. #1 WRs according to DVOA.  

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3 hours ago, RG623 said:

I usually start by trying to cram in 3 stud RBs (Hunt, Gordon & Kamara) and a mid-tier QB (Wilson).

I think Boyd is a near must play, so the starting point above is practically impossible . If I comedown to someone like Mariota, it leaves room for cheap guys everywhere else. Not sure if I’m comfortable with that approach for cash.

Interesting to see Arizona D $500 below minimum.

Is there any hesitation on how he will handle drawing the best D coverage as the other team doesn't have to worry about Green now?  I would think NO would double him most of the day, depend on their top rush D to shut down Mixon a bit, and dare Cinci to beat them with the like of Uzomah and Ross.  

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25 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

C.Davis has been showing up all year when I look at the airyards site as far as opportunity rating, % of team's share, etc..  but besides the one game he hasn't done a ton.  Pats are 7th-8th worst vs. #1 WRs according to DVOA.  

This goes to Bloom's assumption of rational coaching: if you watched the Tenn/Philly game, Tenn made a concerted effort to get the ball to their best player, Corey Davis. And what happened? They beat the Eagles. Last night, Tenn did largely the same thing. Result? Win. Most coaching staffs are not good enough to win games without their best players. So you'd think they'd remember this.

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Seems like there is so much value to be had this week. Have seen most of it mentioned already. For a total contrarian play, I'm gonna throw a $1 GPP L/U together for Thur-Mon that will start with a Prescott-Elliott-Cooper stack; will run it back with somebody from Philly. The Eagles secondary is still, IMO, very suspect and I can see the Cowboys having to play from behind. I think the Cowboys could be very low owned. I may have to think a little more about Elliott, but, I believe that he does snag passes out of the backfield. 

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23 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Is there any hesitation on how he will handle drawing the best D coverage as the other team doesn't have to worry about Green now?  

This is my hesitation with Boyd. One of the reasons why Eifert, Boyd, Sanu etc. have been useful in Cincy is AJ Green can beat double coverage. Is Boyd good enough to do the same?

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1 minute ago, reel_smooth said:

Seems like there is so much value to be had this week. Have seen most of it mentioned already. For a total contrarian play, I'm gonna throw a $1 GPP L/U together for Thur-Mon that will start with a Prescott-Elliott-Cooper stack; will run it back with somebody from Philly. The Eagles secondary is still, IMO, very suspect and I can see the Cowboys having to play from behind. I think the Cowboys could be very low owned. I may have to think a little more about Elliott, but, I believe that he does snag passes out of the backfield. 

I hadn't thought about a Dallas stack, but I like your reasoning. 

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2 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Seems like there is so much value to be had this week. Have seen most of it mentioned already. For a total contrarian play, I'm gonna throw a $1 GPP L/U together for Thur-Mon that will start with a Prescott-Elliott-Cooper stack; will run it back with somebody from Philly. The Eagles secondary is still, IMO, very suspect and I can see the Cowboys having to play from behind. I think the Cowboys could be very low owned. I may have to think a little more about Elliott, but, I believe that he does snag passes out of the backfield. 

@reel_smooth :  yeah, he gets targets.  For the season he is #2 on the team as far as target % at about 15%.   Not sure how Cooper will effect that going forward, but it looks like he still had 5 targets last night.  

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3 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

This is my hesitation with Boyd. One of the reasons why Eifert, Boyd, Sanu etc. have been useful in Cincy is AJ Green can beat double coverage. Is Boyd good enough to do the same?

These are questions that make me wish I kept up on actually watching games more.   

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6 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

This goes to Bloom's assumption of rational coaching: if you watched the Tenn/Philly game, Tenn made a concerted effort to get the ball to their best player, Corey Davis. And what happened? They beat the Eagles. Last night, Tenn did largely the same thing. Result? Win. Most coaching staffs are not good enough to win games without their best players. So you'd think they'd remember this.

On the flip side, Billy B is known for taking out the other team's best weapon and being happy to let teams dink and dunk on them.   Interesting risky play for sure, but that's what gpps are for.  

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Placeholder lineup after first look...

Fitzpatrick/Hunt, Gordon, Duke J/Evans, Kupp, Harris/Hooper/New Orleans

Not excited about that WR group...Kupp and Harris just fit price-wise.  I would love to find a way to squeeze Thomas in there vs Cincy instead of Evans, but would need to free up $1100 to do that.  As someone said those WAS Wrs are cheap and hard to pass up vs TB.  Harris had a nice outing last week while Richardson is gone, Crowder not healthy, and Doctson is just Doctson...  No reason Harris couldn't return value here.  ETA...well I guess one reason may be the lack of O-line requiring Smith to throw from his back.

Edited by Galileo
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5 minutes ago, Ever Present Lurker said:

Valdez-Scantling, Fitz and Kupp allow for a lot of flexibility... likewise Crowell and Jordon Howard are cheap upside plays.  Too bad we can't keep the leftover money!

I am still surprised he keeps getting mentioned as much as he does.  Of course, I probably said the same thing about Duke last week.  

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

I am still surprised he keeps getting mentioned as much as he does.  Of course, I probably said the same thing about Duke last week.  

I know my Bills, they're in full turtle mode

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I try to do this every couple weeks, so I will post here too.  Here are the RBs with the highest % of team rushes on the season (at least 50%)

70%+ = Conner, Barkley, David Johnson

60%+ = Zeke, Hunt, Gurley, Mixon, A.Peterson

50%+ = Chubb, J.Howard, Barber, Gordon, Kamara, Coleman

 

Here are the ones from the above list who also have a decent (14%+ ) percentage of their team's passing targets:

Conner, Barkley, David Johnson, Zeke, Gordon, Kamara, Gurley

 

No surprise, but I think the above 6 names (OK, not David Johnson), are the names we need to be looking at with cash games & probably might need 2 of each week seeing how well they score week in and week out.  Due to the role in the passing game, they are the ones that are probably matchup proof.  The others from the above 14 names probably could be looked at, but are game dependent and would need a lead and favorable game script to be effective ( I think Hunt is the odd man out here since KC is always crushing people, so will they use him more if pushed?).  

I would take out DJ and put in Hunt on the bolded list.  

 

Here are the RBs who are involved (14%+) in the team's passing games, but don't get the volume of touches that the above guys do:

White, McCaffrey, Richard, Drake, D.Lewis, Cohen, Riddick       McCaffrey is the one the stood out here, because he is the only one on the list averaging 20+ touches a week.  White stands out due to the TD equity.  The others are probably fringe-gpp plays and/or mostly DK plays where you get full ppr?  

 

Lastly the one other that popped when I looked at players getting 18+ touches/week that haven't been listed in the first list or McCaffrey was M.Mack.  

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For WRs I went back to the airyards page and looked at their opportunity rating based on air yards and target share.   The players that they had as a .60+ were:

.70+ = Julio, Hopkins, OBJ, Thielen, C.Davis

.60+ = Green, Landry, M.Thomas, Brown, Cooks, K.Allen, Adams, Woods, Diggs, Cooper (this was based just on the 1st game with Dallas)

 

ALL of the above guys are also all the WRs that are getting 25%+ of their teams targets on average.  All also have an aDOT of 10 yards + except:  Thielen, C.Davis, M.Thomas, K.Allen, Diggs, Cooper.  

 

The next wave of guys on their list (rating between .50-.59) were:

Jeffrey, T.Hill, Evans, Marvin Jones, Funchess, K.Benjamin, Boyd, JuJu, Fitz, E.Sanders, Moncrief.   All of these guys had at least 20% of teams targets except Marvin ( I assume this might go up?) and K.Benjamin.   All had aDOTs over 10yds except Boyd, JuJu, Fitz, Sanders.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Is there any hesitation on how he will handle drawing the best D coverage as the other team doesn't have to worry about Green now?  I would think NO would double him most of the day, depend on their top rush D to shut down Mixon a bit, and dare Cinci to beat them with the like of Uzomah and Ross.  

Fair point. My thought is bad pass D’s are bad pass D’s. I may be over simplifying it and giving Boyd too much credit, but from what I’ve seen from him this year has me impressed. 

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As for TEs, I also used the airyards ratings, and their top guys were:

.50+ = Ertz, Kelce

.40+=  Kittle, Ebron, Doyle, Gronk, Reed, Cook

.35+ =  Seals-Jones, Graham, Njoku, Olsen

 

ALL had 15%+ target share in their offenses, but the highest % were  Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, Doyle, Reed.        The only TEs with 10 yd+ aDOTs were:  Gronk, Seals-Jones, Howard, Watson

 

My cheap punt this week just might be Seals-Jones again.  One of the cheapest on both sites.

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7 minutes ago, RG623 said:

Fair point. My thought is bad pass D’s are bad pass D’s. I may be over simplifying it and giving Boyd too much credit, but from what I’ve seen from him this year has me impressed. 

Just playing a little Devil's Advocate here.    I tend to overthink things, and especially with his inflated price, I was wondering if there was some reason for pause.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

These are questions that make me wish I kept up on actually watching games more.   

NFL films has really good highlight reels on almost every player from almost every game if you want to YouTube it.

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

On the flip side, Billy B is known for taking out the other team's best weapon and being happy to let teams dink and dunk on them.   Interesting risky play for sure, but that's what gpps are for.  

I'm not touching Corey Davis. Belichek has shut down better weapons before. I'm good with Mariota though.

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

I'm not touching Corey Davis. Belichek has shut down better weapons before. I'm good with Mariota though.

D.Lewis revenge game?? 

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8 hours ago, Ever Present Lurker said:

Valdez-Scantling, Fitz and Kupp allow for a lot of flexibility... likewise Crowell and Jordon Howard are cheap upside plays.  Too bad we can't keep the leftover money!

 

8 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I am still surprised he keeps getting mentioned as much as he does.  Of course, I probably said the same thing about Duke last week.  

 

8 hours ago, Ever Present Lurker said:

I know my Bills, they're in full turtle mode

I got suckered in last week.  I am done with him.  If you want "upside" in the Jets backfield, it may come from McGuire instead of Crowell... Personally, I am staying away from both.

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Just got 50,000 bonus FDP added to my account.  Nice way to start the week.

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On 11/5/2018 at 4:39 PM, jdoggydogg said:

Ahhhhh the memories. My first winning ticket was $25, and here was the lineup:

QB Jake Locker, TENN 12.26
RB Rashad Jennings NYG 10.9
RB Frank Gore SF 14.5
WR Jordy Nelson GB 31.4
WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 14.6
WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 12.5
TE Jimmy Graham NO 28.8
K Shayne Graham NO 6
D Green Bay Packers 0

Wow have times changed. That point total wouldn't cash a 50/50 most weeks now.

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4 hours ago, Galileo said:

 

 

I got suckered in last week.  I am done with him.  If you want "upside" in the Jets backfield, it may come from McGuire instead of Crowell... Personally, I am staying away from both.

There are a few of these guys like that for me that I just about done trying.  Crowell is one, and I am getting that way with Golladay.  Detroit just seems to suck and I am thinking that the Tate targets might just go to Riddick instead of the WRs on the team.  

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15 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Wow have times changed. That point total wouldn't cash a 50/50 most weeks now.

I was thinking the same thing.

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11 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

There are a few of these guys like that for me that I just about done trying.  Crowell is one, and I am getting that way with Golladay.  Detroit just seems to suck and I am thinking that the Tate targets might just go to Riddick instead of the WRs on the team.  

I'm giving Golliday one more week. In a game where Detroit should trail the entire time and lose big, if Golliday doesn't get garbage time numbers Sunday then I'm divorcing him.

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4 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I'm giving Golliday one more week. In a game where Detroit should trail the entire time and lose big, if Golliday doesn't get garbage time numbers Sunday then I'm divorcing him.

Just looking at Det's stats on airyards, and was surprised to see that Galloday's rating, target share, air yards, and market share of the air yards were all lower than Marvin's.   Also, his effciency rating was almost double Jones', so that could point to negative regression coming Galloday's way, and positive regression coming Marvin's way.   :shrug:

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42 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Just looking at Det's stats on airyards, and was surprised to see that Galloday's rating, target share, air yards, and market share of the air yards were all lower than Marvin's.   Also, his effciency rating was almost double Jones', so that could point to negative regression coming Galloday's way, and positive regression coming Marvin's way.   :shrug:

Jones is a polished receiver, so I'm not going to say one negative word about him. Sometimes I'll be late on a player's poor performance for a couple of weeks on purpose. For another example, Mike Evans this week. He was awful vs. Carolina, so I like adding him to a couple teams hoping the public soured on him from last week.

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Back to the figuring out this lineup.  Took my lumps last week but I'm still ahead for the year so can't dwell on it.  Lets make some more money

First thought on cash for Thur-Mon 

Wentz

M. Gordon, T. Coleman

Kupp, Boyd, MVS

McDonald

Ingram

Packers

At first glance I like the RB's quite a bit, I'm ok with the WR's and I love the TE.  Wentz just screamed value to me, same with McDonald (7400 and 5300 respectively), but MVS, Ingram and Packers D makes me a bit nervous.  Got a lot of fiddling to do but McDonald/M. Gordon/Wentz might be my pillars for cash and I'll figure out the rest around them.  

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