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jdoggydogg

FanDuel Week 10

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43 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

With Darnold out do we go for McCown, Bills DEF, or none?

Trying to determine if I can stomach McCown for cash. I believe I read that the bills just released their #2 corner and will be starting a UDFA in that spot. It’s tempting because a 6k qb offers the ability to have 3 stud rbs without punting all of the remaining spots.

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58 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Wentz just screamed value to me 

Wentz the best value at QB this week.

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53 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

With Darnold out do we go for McCown, Bills DEF, or none?

At first when I read this, I thought, "I don't care about any skill position players in this game." But now I'm seeing a blind spot in my GPP tickets: I need to enter at least a ticket or two every week that exploits these terrible games. 

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39 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

At first when I read this, I thought, "I don't care about any skill position players in this game." But now I'm seeing a blind spot in my GPP tickets: I need to enter at least a ticket or two every week that exploits these terrible games. 

I don't necessarily think any players besides QB is the play here, but perhaps Anderson or Enunwa go off.  I was curious if the QB play by either is a GPP option, but the limited upside of both is hard to stomach.  McCown with more upside so perhaps him.

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15 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I don't necessarily think any players besides QB is the play here, but perhaps Anderson or Enunwa go off.  I was curious if the QB play by either is a GPP option, but the limited upside of both is hard to stomach.  McCown with more upside so perhaps him.

Bloom mentioned that McCown to Anderson has been productive in the past. 

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2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

 I need to enter at least a ticket or two every week that exploits these terrible games. 

Uh, why? 

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Uh, why? 

My theory is the public gravitates to the more alluring matchups. Also, when you look at cards that finish in the top five, they're almost always composed of 85% studs and 15% scrubs or players on awful teams. The $400,000 winner in last week's Sunday Million contest rostered both Curtis Samuel and Jeff Heuerman.

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25 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

My theory is the public gravitates to the more alluring matchups. Also, when you look at cards that finish in the top five, they're almost always composed of 85% studs and 15% scrubs or players on awful teams. The $400,000 winner in last week's Sunday Million contest rostered both Curtis Samuel and Jeff Heuerman.

Samuel I had in my lineup until tinkering time.  Heuerman I did as well, but never for long.  Samuel wasn't hard to see against TB (when I say this I mean have a decent game, never 2 tds and 16 FP points).  Heuerman was definitely harder to predict.

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45 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Heuerman was definitely harder to predict.

I agree, although I believe it was the FBG Power Grid podcast that suggested Heuerman was a decent, low-owned flier. 

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46 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Samuel I had in my lineup until tinkering time. 

The insertion of Samuel into a lineup feels like one of those sharks that runs 100 cards every week with several variations to mitigate risk.

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

My theory is the public gravitates to the more alluring matchups. Also, when you look at cards that finish in the top five, they're almost always composed of 85% studs and 15% scrubs or players on awful teams. The $400,000 winner in last week's Sunday Million contest rostered both Curtis Samuel and Jeff Heuerman.

I get what you are saying.  I could see if it's a player or two, but how I read that was you were saying you should load up on these terrible teams.  

I wonder a couple things about that - mostly how many LUs is that person entering, and how much was a function of jamming in a LaR/NO game stack and those are basically the 2 guys the person could afford.  

Keep in mind that you have hit on more of these gpps than I have for sure, and in theory anything can happen on Sundays, but I think that both of those guys make sense (of course in hindsight a lot of things do) as cheap guys and pivots off plays that people were talking about.  Sutton and Moore were getting a bit of buzz, so I could see somebody thinking Cam would pass a bit vs a terrible D and take a stab at a way lower owned Samuel, or thinking that DT's targets that were left behind maybe aren't going to Sutton like we thought.   IMO that is a bit different than just targeting random dudes on crap teams.   Example - I would rather take a shot on a dude like Hogan this week (underperforming WR on a good team that nobody will be on) than somebody in the Jets/Buffalo game, but yet again - you have hit more than I have.    Another example might be Seals-Jones this week as people are talking a bit about Fitz and Kirk vs. a pretty bad KC D and will have to be coming from behind all game.  :shrug:    I could see that Jets/Buffalo game being a 10-9 turd fest.  

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10 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

The insertion of Samuel into a lineup feels like one of those sharks that runs 100 cards every week with several variations to mitigate risk.

That was my thought, and IMO it felt like:

1.  Running dozens of LaR/NO stacks and rotating super cheap WR3/TEs in. 

Or 

2.  Really liking the Carolina pass game and doing dozens of weird Car stacks

 

What was the LU that you are talking about with those two guys in them??

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JDogg - sorry, I know you've answered this, but how many LUs do you put in each week, and how big (entry-wise) are the contests that you enter?

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I get what you are saying.  I could see if it's a player or two, but how I read that was you were saying you should load up on these terrible teams.  

I wonder a couple things about that - mostly how many LUs is that person entering, and how much was a function of jamming in a LaR/NO game stack and those are basically the 2 guys the person could afford.  

Keep in mind that you have hit on more of these gpps than I have for sure, and in theory anything can happen on Sundays, but I think that both of those guys make sense (of course in hindsight a lot of things do) as cheap guys and pivots off plays that people were talking about.  Sutton and Moore were getting a bit of buzz, so I could see somebody thinking Cam would pass a bit vs a terrible D and take a stab at a way lower owned Samuel, or thinking that DT's targets that were left behind maybe aren't going to Sutton like we thought.   IMO that is a bit different than just targeting random dudes on crap teams.   Example - I would rather take a shot on a dude like Hogan this week (underperforming WR on a good team that nobody will be on) than somebody in the Jets/Buffalo game, but yet again - you have hit more than I have.    Another example might be Seals-Jones this week as people are talking a bit about Fitz and Kirk vs. a pretty bad KC D and will have to be coming from behind all game.  :shrug:    I could see that Jets/Buffalo game being a 10-9 turd fest.  

I've been lucky a couple times, that's about it :)

I didn't mean to imply that my entire card would be all junk. Here's an example of a card I'm playing for $2 Sunday:

QB Josh McCown 
RB Todd Gurley II 
RB Melvin Gordon III
WR Robby Anderson 
WR Keenan Allen 
TE Chris Herndon 
FLEX Ezekiel Elliott 
SuperFlex Josh Rosen

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

What was the LU that you are talking about with those two guys in them??

This is the #1 spot ($400,000) in last week's Sunday Million contest:

QB Jared Goff
RB Kareem Hunt
RB Christian McCaffrey
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Michael Thomas
WR Curtis Samuel
TE David Njoku
FLEX Jeff Heuerman
DEF Chicago Bears

Same guy won $10,000 in the same contest with this 7th place entry:

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB Christian McCaffrey
RB Kareem Hunt
WR Michael Thomas
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Laquon Treadwell
TE O.J. Howard
FLEX Curtis Samuel
DEF Chicago Bears

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7 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

JDogg - sorry, I know you've answered this, but how many LUs do you put in each week, and how big (entry-wise) are the contests that you enter?

I do 20 to 30 tickets per week. Most expensive is $10, but most are $5, $1, $1, and 25 cents. Entry-wise, most of those tickets are at least 10,000 entries, some of them as many as 100,000. Really, I don't joke about being lucky. You and I are competing against dudes who enter 100 tickets just in one contest. I don't know if you're up for it, but my shark friend said that NFL Fanduel is too hard, and that the easier money is in basketball. Problem is, I don't watch basketball and don't know a thing about it.

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2 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

This is the #1 spot ($400,000) in last week's Sunday Million contest:

QB Jared Goff
RB Kareem Hunt
RB Christian McCaffrey
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Michael Thomas
WR Curtis Samuel
TE David Njoku
FLEX Jeff Heuerman
DEF Chicago Bears

Huh, and I thought it would be even more LaR/NO.  To be fair, the 2 TE LU was probably enough to separate him from the pack.  I have done it a bit on DK, but rarely on FD.   

Also, the podcasts I listen to harp on having a very small QB pool each week of guys you really like, and take a lot of pass catchers from them.  I could see last week's pool for a lot of people being Cam, Goff, Brees, Fitz.    McCaffrey and Samuel would be a correlation play from that game if people had Goff and Cam neck and neck and wanted good exposure for both games.  :shrug:  Again, hindsight and all.  

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4 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I do 20 to 30 tickets per week. Most expensive is $10, but most are $5, $1, $1, and 25 cents. Entry-wise, most of those tickets are at least 10,000 entries, some of them as many as 100,000. Really, I don't joke about being lucky. You and I are competing against dudes who enter 100 tickets just in one contest. I don't know if you're up for it, but my shark friend said that NFL Fanduel is too hard, and that the easier money is in basketball. Problem is, I don't watch basketball and don't know a thing about it.

I have tried NBA and I don't think I have won a thing yet.  I also don't know basketball, and last year I got caught quite a few times with late scratches.  I just don't have the time to watch that like a hawk right up to game time for late scratches.   My biggest wins have been in MLB - also didn't know much about it until 2 years ago, but had success after I knew where to look and what to look for as far as stats go.  It's also nice knowing batting orders hours ahead of time.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Also, the podcasts I listen to harp on having a very small QB pool each week of guys you really like, and take a lot of pass catchers from them. 

This is my strategy 90% of the time. Every week I'll have around three or four tickets that are meant to be contrarian. For example, I have a cheap ticket Sunday that essentially predicts a shootout between Jacksonville and Indy. 

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I have tried NBA and I don't think I have won a thing yet.  I also don't know basketball, and last year I got caught quite a few times with late scratches.  I just don't have the time to watch that like a hawk right up to game time for late scratches.   My biggest wins have been in MLB - also didn't know much about it until 2 years ago, but had success after I knew where to look and what to look for as far as stats go.  It's also nice knowing batting orders hours ahead of time.  

Yeah I'm too lazy and too old to learn something new in this arena :yes:

 

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26 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I've been lucky a couple times, that's about it :)

I didn't mean to imply that my entire card would be all junk. Here's an example of a card I'm playing for $2 Sunday:

QB Josh McCown 
RB Todd Gurley II 
RB Melvin Gordon III
WR Robby Anderson 
WR Keenan Allen 
TE Chris Herndon 
FLEX Ezekiel Elliott 
SuperFlex Josh Rosen

I should do more superflex - I seem to have a decent amount of success with them.   

I ALWAYS make sure I have 2qbs, and have a correlation play for each of them and/or take 2QBs going against each other.   I remember a stacking article saying that one of the highest correlations to a QB is the opposing QB. 

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21 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I do 20 to 30 tickets per week. Most expensive is $10, but most are $5, $1, $1, and 25 cents. Entry-wise, most of those tickets are at least 10,000 entries, some of them as many as 100,000. Really, I don't joke about being lucky. You and I are competing against dudes who enter 100 tickets just in one contest. I don't know if you're up for it, but my shark friend said that NFL Fanduel is too hard, and that the easier money is in basketball. Problem is, I don't watch basketball and don't know a thing about it.

I disagree with your friend.  I just think he has better ball knowledge relative to the crowd.

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And Samuel wasn't that big of a surprise.  I didn't post it here, but did in the Pool in the Moore thread.  Cam has a bum shoulder and is not throwing deep.  Samuels being a former RB is a little better suited for the short stuff.  With T. Smith out last week and Funchess being the suck, someone had to score against TB.  My son trots out one Cam lineup every week.

I generally don't play Panther players as I'm a fan and don't want to jinx them by inserting them in a lineup.

I am starting Pitt D this week.  Cam should have about 6-8 more INTs on the year and the line isn't that great.  Playing on the road in a short week concerns me. 

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16 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I should do more superflex - I seem to have a decent amount of success with them.   

I ALWAYS make sure I have 2qbs, and have a correlation play for each of them and/or take 2QBs going against each other.   I remember a stacking article saying that one of the highest correlations to a QB is the opposing QB. 

I don't know if this is dumb, but I like to pick a shootout, use both QBs from that game and as many skill position players from that game as I can afford and then add a couple cheap players to round it out.

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13 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I disagree with your friend.  I just think he has better ball knowledge relative to the crowd.

His argument was this: there are only 12-15 NFL games per week. Whereas with BB, there are a lot more games every single day and that sheer volume makes it harder for the sharks to research every single game with the same precision. 

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9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

And Samuel wasn't that big of a surprise.  I didn't post it here, but did in the Pool in the Moore thread.  Cam has a bum shoulder and is not throwing deep.  Samuels being a former RB is a little better suited for the short stuff.  With T. Smith out last week and Funchess being the suck, someone had to score against TB.  My son trots out one Cam lineup every week.

I generally don't play Panther players as I'm a fan and don't want to jinx them by inserting them in a lineup.

I am starting Pitt D this week.  Cam should have about 6-8 more INTs on the year and the line isn't that great.  Playing on the road in a short week concerns me. 

That makes sense.

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26 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I don't know if this is dumb, but I like to pick a shootout, use both QBs from that game and as many skill position players from that game as I can afford and then add a couple cheap players to round it out.

Don't know why that would be dumb.  I put in a placeholder with my NE/Tenn idea:

Brady - Gordon/Gurley - Gordon/C.Davis - Hooper - D.Lewis - Mariota

 

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

This is my strategy 90% of the time. Every week I'll have around three or four tickets that are meant to be contrarian. For example, I have a cheap ticket Sunday that essentially predicts a shootout between Jacksonville and Indy. 

Moncrief revenge game!   I was surprised to see that both these teams play at a fairly fast pace, and it's probably the best game of the week from that standpoint.  

I would guess that this is also a week to be more different with the stacks, as there isn't those one or two smash spots that there were last week with Rams/Saints and Bucs/Panthers.  Saints/Bengals is a 54, but it's outside and I don't love it nearly as much as those other games.  

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Saints/Bengals is a 54, but it's outside and I don't love it nearly as much as those other games.  

I wonder if the Saints / Bengals game is an under play. Saints with a post Los Angeles hangover and Cincinnati sans AJ Green.

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Don't know why that would be dumb.  I put in a placeholder with my NE/Tenn idea:

Brady - Gordon/Gurley - Gordon/C.Davis - Hooper - D.Lewis - Mariota

 

Personally I think this is too much exposure.  For all the scoring we've had this year, it's been relative spread out.  I've even had some success with naked QBs.  Rather than forcing too many options in a single game, I'm trying to find the best option available.  Just seems like this year that the second best scorer is getting swamped by guys from other games.  With scoring up across the league meaning there are numerous high scoring games, I think it's less imperative to super stack this year.

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Also, they had a great point about Billy B being a bit of a vindictive troll, and its possible he runs Gordon at Malcolm Butler and throws to him 15 times.  He's been bad this year, and the Pats might want to shut people up who have been grumbling about them getting rid of the SB hero.   

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11 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I wonder if the Saints / Bengals game is an under play. Saints with a post Los Angeles hangover and Cincinnati sans AJ Green.

Waiting to see Buzzard's projected ownerships, but, I'd like to run two NO/Cinn game-stacked GPP's this week, with both of them having J. Ross if his ownership is projected at 7% or less. Thinking everybody will be looking at Boyd, which, of course, is not a bad way to go.

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That NO/Cin game is the one that I am afraid of burning me in gpps.  I just dont like it outside of Kamara.  Dalton without Green has not great splits, Boyd will be hella owned, Gio could be back and limit Mixon, etc..  

My plan is to fade in gpp besides Kamara - which means I should put in a couple free or 25cent lus with a game stack.  

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

That NO/Cin game is the one that I am afraid of burning me in gpps.  I just dont like it outside of Kamara.  Dalton without Green has not great splits, Boyd will be hella owned, Gio could be back and limit Mixon, etc..  

My plan is to fade in gpp besides Kamara - which means I should put in a couple free or 25cent lus with a game stack.  

Don't like thomas either?

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11 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

With scoring up across the league meaning there are numerous high scoring games, I think it's less imperative to super stack this year.

I agree.

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6 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Don't like thomas either?

Dont love NO pass game outside on the road in general, and assume Thomas will be highly owned after his explosion last week.  Dont hate Thomas, just figure there might be guys like Allen who would be lesser owned.  Again, I dont have access to ownership projections, so I could be off but it's the highest total by 4 or 5pts, right? 

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27 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

both of them having J. Ross if his ownership is projected at 7% or less. Thinking everybody will be looking at Boyd, which, of course, is not a bad way to go.

I like it.

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If Sammy Watkins sits, I'm definitely inserting Chris Conley into a couple of lineups.

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30 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Dont love NO pass game outside on the road in general, and assume Thomas will be highly owned after his explosion last week.  Dont hate Thomas, just figure there might be guys like Allen who would be lesser owned.  Again, I dont have access to ownership projections, so I could be off but it's the highest total by 4 or 5pts, right? 

Makes sense.  I just saw how bad Cinci was against the pass and he seemed like a no brainer if you have the money

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Forgot about RW's ownership projections in their optimizer.   That had Boyd at 6% which I thought was surprising.  The only ones they had at over 10% were Thomas, Hill, Adams, Julio, and Fitz.  

ETA:  They have Gordon at only 2% - yes, please.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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4 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Makes sense.  I just saw how bad Cinci was against the pass and he seemed like a no brainer if you have the money

Keep in mind that I usually pay up for RB and TE, and if I do pay up for WR I try to get a guy that might be lower owned since they are more volatile than the RBs.   IF these RW projections are any indication, I would rather take a stab at someone like Allen at a $700 discount and 1/3 the ownership if we are talking gpps.  Not saying Thomas is a bad play or anything, it's just my usual gut reaction is to pivot off a higher owned guy like that unless it's in a game I love a ton.  

I also see big %projections for the LaR WRs again - all 3 in the top 10?  IMO this isn't the same as the NO game, and I could see them underperforming (since they won't have to play catch up) I would rather take a stab at a guy like Gordon at a cheaper price than those 3 and at 1/4 the ownership.  

Just my :2cents:

 

 

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Keep in mind that I usually pay up for RB and TE, and if I do pay up for WR I try to get a guy that might be lower owned since they are more volatile than the RBs.   IF these RW projections are any indication, I would rather take a stab at someone like Allen at a $700 discount and 1/3 the ownership if we are talking gpps.  Not saying Thomas is a bad play or anything, it's just my usual gut reaction is to pivot off a higher owned guy like that unless it's in a game I love a ton.  

I also see big %projections for the LaR WRs again - all 3 in the top 10?  IMO this isn't the same as the NO game, and I could see them underperforming (since they won't have to play catch up) I would rather take a stab at a guy like Gordon at a cheaper price than those 3 and at 1/4 the ownership.  

Just my :2cents:

 

 

Thank you for this.  I was loving Thomas this week and may move down to Allen.  My issue was that I had Brees and Rivers in a lineup and now may pivot down to Mariota and Carr. I am not sure I can stomach those two at QB.

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7 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Thank you for this.  I was loving Thomas this week and may move down to Allen.  My issue was that I had Brees and Rivers in a lineup and now may pivot down to Mariota and Carr. I am not sure I can stomach those two at QB.

I am not sure I could either.  Right now I have a WR corps of Allen, Gordon, and MVS in my gpp placeholder, and it doesn't force meto take a scrub QB.   Not sure I can do guys like Carr, A.Smith, McCown, Rosen this week.     Looking more on the lines of Luck, Rivers, Wilson.   Maybe Mariota just because he does also have a little rushing upside.  

Edited by KarmaPolice
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3 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Haha just looked back and saw those were your two QB mentions this week

Did I mention Carr?  I am rethinking that if I did.  Mariota I am still staring at b/c of price, rushing upside, etc like I mentioned above.  

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2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Did I mention Carr?  I am rethinking that if I did.  Mariota I am still staring at b/c of price, rushing upside, etc like I mentioned above.  

Yeah, I was looking at both stats.  Carr had 14 last time against Chargers, but that was on the road.  Mariotta I think was dinged up for the start of the season so hopefully that is why his stats were so down.  At least that is what I tell myself when i put him in my lineups.

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43 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Another cheap rb might be M.Davis if Carson is out he caught a bit last week in their loss as well. 

I already have Davis in three lineups, and I'm not removing him unless Carson plays. 

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