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jdoggydogg

FanDuel Week 10

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I had Edelman in a couple of lineups. But CBS' Dave Richard says that Tenn very good vs. slot WRs and that Gordon has a much better matchup.

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49 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Yeah, I was looking at both stats.  Carr had 14 last time against Chargers, but that was on the road.  Mariotta I think was dinged up for the start of the season so hopefully that is why his stats were so down.  At least that is what I tell myself when i put him in my lineups.

When I put Mariotta or Carr in a lineup I tell myself I should've stopped drinking 3 beers ago.

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37 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

When I put Mariotta or Carr in a lineup I tell myself I should've stopped drinking 3 beers ago.

Don’t hate mariota for a cheap gpp build with Dion Lewis. Pats will shut down Corey Davis and force short passes I believe. Assuming the titans are playing from behind the whole game... really only like Lewis (cheaper option, revenge game) and Taylor as a possible “curtis Samuel” from last week based on the potential game script. I’ll have them sprinkled through some of my lineups this week. 

I want nothing to do with Oakland for the remainder of this season. 

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27 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

I want nothing to do with Oakland for the remainder of this season. 

I'm not touching any Oakland players until further notice except Jared Cook, and even Cook is worthless this week.

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1 hour ago, Raging weasel said:

When I put Mariotta or Carr in a lineup I tell myself I should've stopped drinking 3 beers ago.

I'm totally avoiding Carr in all lineups. Here's one contrarian argument, though: Oak got killed by SF, so surely the Chargers will destroy Oakland, right? Well, probably. But don't forget this is a division rivalry. Carr could do fine in junk time. I'm not advising anyone to start Carr. Just food for thought...

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Did some more fiddling with cash lineups for Thur-Mon and I'm pretty sold on paying for RB and not paying up for WR at this point.  There's value all around for WR's, Maurice Harris, Corey Davis, Larry Fitz.  Any combo of Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, or Gordon, seems like a good play.  If you want to go down, I think Coleman is the lowest I'd go at 7300.  Mixon is an option as well but that seems more GPP than cash.  

On a podcast I was listening to suggested Mariota for cash and I'm just curious as to everyone else's opinion?  The points he made were that he'll have to throw, he's finally healthy (it seems), and he's at home.  All good points but he has to be hard to trust.  I'm definitely throwing him into a GPP lineup or two but cash?  Idk about that one.  

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What I expect to be low owned for GPP lineups that I put together real quick

Team A - Still left with 1300 so there's tons of options still

Rosen

DJ, Hunt

Fitz, M. Harris, Lockett

Doyle

Melvin Gordon

Atlanta

 

Team B - $0 remaining

Mariota

Hunt, Gurley

Corey Davis, Lockett, MVS

Jonnu

Mixon

Packers

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

When I put Mariotta or Carr in a lineup I tell myself I should've stopped drinking 3 beers ago.

Haha thats how i was when i first made that change.  It may have grown on me or I drank too many beers and talked myself into it.

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Did some more fiddling with cash lineups for Thur-Mon and I'm pretty sold on paying for RB and not paying up for WR at this point.  There's value all around for WR's, Maurice Harris, Corey Davis, Larry Fitz.  Any combo of Gurley, Kamara, Hunt, or Gordon, seems like a good play.  If you want to go down, I think Coleman is the lowest I'd go at 7300.  Mixon is an option as well but that seems more GPP than cash.  

On a podcast I was listening to suggested Mariota for cash and I'm just curious as to everyone else's opinion?  The points he made were that he'll have to throw, he's finally healthy (it seems), and he's at home.  All good points but he has to be hard to trust.  I'm definitely throwing him into a GPP lineup or two but cash?  Idk about that one.  

For cheap guys I like MV-S and Kirk as well.  I think both have been pretty steady with the 10pt games over the last 4 weeks.  

Was Mariota in cash for DK or FD?  I guess the plus for cash is that he is about 1K cheaper than most of the other decent options on both sites.    Dunno - is it worth it in cash if you can fit in 3 of Gurley/Hunt/Gordon/Kamara Or 2 and a WR like Julio/Thomas/Adams ?  

I just put together:  Mariota - Hunt/Gordon/Kamara - Landry/MVS/Fitz - V.Davis - Rams and don't hate that.    If Michel is still limited, I don't mind something like Luck/White instead of Mariota/Kamara for the same price pivot.  

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

On a podcast I was listening to suggested Mariota for cash and I'm just curious as to everyone else's opinion?

I am by no means an expert in cash games. But given Mariota's inconsistency and the confounding play calling in Tenn, I don't know how we can trust Mariota in a cash lineup.

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28 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I am by no means an expert in cash games. But given Mariota's inconsistency and the confounding play calling in Tenn, I don't know how we can trust Mariota in a cash lineup.

I keep seeing and hearing Bortles' name mentioned too, and someone suggested cash.  I think it's a pt/$ play, and since both have a rushing floor they might be safer than other cheap guys.  :shrug:

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I keep seeing and hearing Bortles' name mentioned too, and someone suggested cash.  I think it's a pt/$ play, and since both have a rushing floor they might be safer than other cheap guys.  :shrug:

This conversation will reveal my ignorance about cash games, but aren't volatile players like Mariota and Bortles too risky for cash?

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10 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I keep seeing and hearing Bortles' name mentioned too, and someone suggested cash.  I think it's a pt/$ play, and since both have a rushing floor they might be safer than other cheap guys.  :shrug:

Just read in FBG that Mariota is being recommended as a cheap cash QB.

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58 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

This conversation will reveal my ignorance about cash games, but aren't volatile players like Mariota and Bortles too risky for cash?

Usually, but I think sometimes there are players that feel too cheap and they still get recommended, especially at QB.   Like I said, I THINK the difference with Mariota and Bortles is that they do have a rushing floor for cash.   Sorting out the QBs for rush attempts/game gives Cam, Mariota, Allen, Prescott, and Bortles.  So I guess in theory they are starting off with about a 3pt floor.   If we think about 3x for a QB in cash, that's about 20 points, or 17 through the air then for those guys?  

All that said, it does seem to go against what I thought were core rules for cash in strategy articles that I read when I first started this, and what Dodds' cash are based on a bit which are (unless I am remembering incorrectly): QB that throws a bit (35attempts or so), on a team with an above average Vegas total for the slate (this week this cutoff would be about 24pts), preferably at home and with some rushing floor.  

Bortles checks 2 of those boxes (high attempts and rushing), Mariota does too (rushing and home), but both are on teams with low team totals, so I think those almost 1K cheaper prices than Fitz and Luck might be worth it if you can get that 3rd high priced stud in the LU and make up those points. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Bortles checks 2 of those boxes (high attempts and rushing), Mariota does too (rushing and home), but both are on teams with low team totals, so I think those almost 1K cheaper prices than Fitz and Luck might be worth it if you can get that 3rd high priced stud in the LU and make up those points. 

Cool. Well, I am definitely using Bortles in a couple GPP lineups. 

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What's the group think about Jones Jr. and Golladay for tournaments? Detroit should get destroyed, so I'm playing both spread out among a few cards.

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14 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

What's the group think about Jones Jr. and Golladay for tournaments? Detroit should get destroyed, so I'm playing both spread out among a few cards.

Lions Bears is always a hard fought game. Doubt Lions get destroyed in this one.

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2 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Lions Bears is always a hard fought game. Doubt Lions get destroyed in this one.

That's sound reasoning. I just don't trust that Detroit O-line vs. Chicago's front seven. Either way, I do think Detroit will have to throw a ton to keep up with Chicago. 

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9 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Also, they had a great point about Billy B being a bit of a vindictive troll, and its possible he runs Gordon at Malcolm Butler and throws to him 15 times.  He's been bad this year, and the Pats might want to shut people up who have been grumbling about them getting rid of the SB hero.   

The Fantasy Alarm guys, Bender and Bowden were talking this up on their SiriusXM show today.   It all sounds reasonable, but being a Cleveland Browns fan, I would have a real difficult time putting my stock in Gordon.

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8 minutes ago, Galileo said:

The Fantasy Alarm guys, Bender and Bowden were talking this up on their SiriusXM show today.   It all sounds reasonable, but being a Cleveland Browns fan, I would have a real difficult time putting my stock in Gordon.

Gordon with the GOAT throwing to him >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gordon on Cleveland.  ;)

 

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Gordon with the GOAT throwing to him >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gordon on Cleveland.  ;)

 

No doubt, but it doesn't make it much easier to pull that trigger.

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Anyone give thought to using McCown in a cash line up this week?  Tough match up vs. Buffalo, but at only $6000 frees up a lot of cash.  Can he return 15 or so pts??  Seems possible.  I was tinkering with a line up using him and managed to put this together...

McCown/Hunt, Gordon, Duke J./Thomas, MVS, Kirk/Kelce/Tennessee

Not excited about that defense, but cheap is cheap...only $100 away from getting to the Saints which I wouldn't mind.  Are the Hunt, Gordon, Thomas, Kelce floors high enough to cover for the bargain bin guys???  Maybe a better gpp line up???

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AGAIN - not sure how this jives with paid info, but looking over RW's projected ownership %, here are my gpp ideas:

QB (under 5%:  Fitz, Ryan, Rivers, Brady, Luck, Mariota, Bortles, Wilson      I bolded my favorites if this is accurate.  

RB:   (under 10%):  Jones, Howard, Coleman, Mack, Chubb, Davis, Barber, Duke, Michel, D.Lewis

WR:  (under 5%):  not a ton stood out here besides Hilton, Gordon, Moncrief, Allen Robinson, Marvin, 

TE:  everybody but Kelce seemed to be low owned, so pick your guy.  I think if Reed is out, V.Davis will be pretty popular though.  

 

SO, if this is accurate I think I might try to get my low % guys out of the QB and flex positions (with a cheaper RB).  

Here is what I put together to hold some places for gpps based on some of this:

Ryan - Gordon/Coleman - Allen/Gordon/MVS - Uzomah - D.Lewis - LaR

3 correlations with Ryan/Coleman, Gordon/Allen, and Gordon/D.Lewis and I figured Uzomah (if healthy) might be a pivot off Boyd and Ross.  

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1 minute ago, BassNBrew said:

No overlay tonight.  Have $85 in, but $54 of that was for tickets already won.

I was getting ready to ask you, they tightening up on Fanduel?  Literally 0 overlay

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3 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

This conversation will reveal my ignorance about cash games, but aren't volatile players like Mariota and Bortles too risky for cash?

Yeah nevermind.  I went back and re-listened to that Mariota suggestion and it was on DK where he's 4700 and Bortles is 4900.  Low key I hate podcasts because it isn't always clear what site they're talking about if they're using generalities.  Especially for new listeners.  

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20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Yeah nevermind.  I went back and re-listened to that Mariota suggestion and it was on DK where he's 4700 and Bortles is 4900.  Low key I hate podcasts because it isn't always clear what site they're talking about if they're using generalities.  Especially for new listeners.  

Seems like most I listen to lean DK, which I always thought was weird since FD seems to be more popular.    I think RG, FBGs, and the 2 point Conversion podcasts are mainly DK, and the 4for4 podcast does talk both.  I can't think of one that is all FD that I have in my rotation.  

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7 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Seems like most I listen to lean DK, which I always thought was weird since FD seems to be more popular.    I think RG, FBGs, and the 2 point Conversion podcasts are mainly DK, and the 4for4 podcast does talk both.  I can't think of one that is all FD that I have in my rotation.  

I honestly never gave it much thought as to why they talk DK more often.  Either way I prefer that platform myself since there's usually more lower priced contests than Fanduel.  

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21 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Personally I think this is too much exposure.  For all the scoring we've had this year, it's been relative spread out.  I've even had some success with naked QBs.  Rather than forcing too many options in a single game, I'm trying to find the best option available.  Just seems like this year that the second best scorer is getting swamped by guys from other games.  With scoring up across the league meaning there are numerous high scoring games, I think it's less imperative to super stack this year.

I think superstack is 3-4 guys from one team or 4-5 from the same game, right?

4for4 had a great podcast about what is winning the Milly maker on DK each week, so not sure how much it translates to FD.   Their point was similar to yours, but what they were saying is that when they looked at the top LUs they were seeing a lot of multiple correlations in the same LU.   So instead of jamming in Goff/Gurley/Cooks/Kamara/Thomas  doing something like Goff/Thomas/Cooks + Hunt/Kelce + Howard/Chicago  with filler pieces after that.  

I guess the idea is that since scoring is up, there isn't that 1-2 monster game each week that you need to have jammed in.  Now there are 4-5 games that are going off, so you need a couple pieces of each to maximize your ceiling.  

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1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

I honestly never gave it much thought as to why they talk DK more often.  Either way I prefer that platform myself since there's usually more lower priced contests than Fanduel.  

Yeah, I love the smaller 25cent contests on DK they have with the small gpps, boosters, and winner take alls.   0 clue why something similar hasn't caught on with FD - feels like most of the interesting things on FD are $2+.  

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2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

That's sound reasoning. I just don't trust that Detroit O-line vs. Chicago's front seven. Either way, I do think Detroit will have to throw a ton to keep up with Chicago. 

I'm not sure what to make of this Bears team. They can definitely curb stomp bad teams and they hung around with the Pats. However,  the Lions 3 wins are against the same teams that gave the Bears their 3 losses: Dolphins, Pats, Packers. 

From top to bottom, I think the NFC North is pretty solid this year. 

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Sweat time. Currently in first in a wffc qualifier. Wonder how 21 of us will use the plane ticket. Fd should know better 

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

However,  the Lions 3 wins are against the same teams that gave the Bears their 3 losses: Dolphins, Pats, Packers. 

I don't know about you, but I get the feeling that the Lions gave Kerryon Johnson 20 carries per game it would greatly aid their passing game.

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Won 3 tournies tonites.  Unfortunately they were spit between 21, 24, and 28 people.  Won $25, $56, and somewhere between $1065 and $1500 depending on how FD handles WFFC packages that are split.

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What's up with this "Streak Extends" nonsense on FD?  Played the $750k tonight and looks like I made the cutline for cashing (marker is past the green line by a couple points), but then it says "Winning: $0" and in green text "Streak Extends".  Very annoying.  

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5 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

What's up with this "Streak Extends" nonsense on FD?  Played the $750k tonight and looks like I made the cutline for cashing (marker is past the green line by a couple points), but then it says "Winning: $0" and in green text "Streak Extends".  Very annoying.  

Looking at the prizes for the Sunday Million and it's looks like the bottom tier is just "streak extends".   I assume this is a just a gimmicky way of making the actual payouts more top heavy in gpps?   Not sure what the normal payout is for that, but it looks like that's the case for places 43251-107250.  

ETA:  after doing that quick math, it looks like the normal payout is intact with the top 20% getting $18 + streak, and it's basically like a 50/50 in that the top 50-20% of the lineups get the "streak extends".  I assume that just means you are in the following week's contest for the same gpp?

Edited by KarmaPolice

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10 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Looking at the prizes for the Sunday Million and it's looks like the bottom tier is just "streak extends".   I assume this is a just a gimmicky way of making the actual payouts more top heavy in gpps?   Not sure what the normal payout is for that, but it looks like that's the case for places 43251-107250.  

ETA:  after doing that quick math, it looks like the normal payout is intact with the top 20% getting $18 + streak, and it's basically like a 50/50 in that the top 50-20% of the lineups get the "streak extends".  I assume that just means you are in the following week's contest for the same gpp?

It means that your streak is still alive and nothing more.  You have to pay outright to entry another eligible contest to extend your streak.  You can also dump in 10 entires in the same contest to extend the streak.  It's really just a gimmick to drive more entries IMO.  If you have a streak going about to hit a payout benchmark, you are going to toss in an extra entry or five to make sure you have one that finishes in the top half.

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Have to wait until tonight to see how much I won / have it credited to my account per FD support.  Looks like FD credited my account with 1/21 of the value of 2nd through 21st place ($51).  First prize of "Congratulations, you won tied for $1,065.00 (this is 2nd through 21st), $8,000 and ticket to WFFC Finals on 12/16 (Package value = $32,333)!"

is still outstanding.

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18 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

It means that your streak is still alive and nothing more.  You have to pay outright to entry another eligible contest to extend your streak.  You can also dump in 10 entires in the same contest to extend the streak.  It's really just a gimmick to drive more entries IMO.  If you have a streak going about to hit a payout benchmark, you are going to toss in an extra entry or five to make sure you have one that finishes in the top half.

I looked and didn't see in this thread - WTF are the streak benchmarks?  I assume if you get 5+ cashes in a row you split a pot or get a $ bonus, or something on those lines?  Like you said - probably just to drive up entries, but it could also have people putting in more "cash" LUs in just to make sure they hit that 50% for a streak, so I wonder if that effects the way the ownership is on players a little in those eligible contests.  

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14 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to wait until tonight to see how much I won / have it credited to my account per FD support.  Looks like FD credited my account with 1/21 of the value of 2nd through 21st place ($51).  First prize of "Congratulations, you won tied for $1,065.00 (this is 2nd through 21st), $8,000 and ticket to WFFC Finals on 12/16 (Package value = $32,333)!"

is still outstanding.

Amazing night!

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11 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I looked and didn't see in this thread - WTF are the streak benchmarks?  I assume if you get 5+ cashes in a row you split a pot or get a $ bonus, or something on those lines?  Like you said - probably just to drive up entries, but it could also have people putting in more "cash" LUs in just to make sure they hit that 50% for a streak, so I wonder if that effects the way the ownership is on players a little in those eligible contests.  

Quote

 

Every day from Nov 1st - Nov 30th, there will be one featured “Streak Eligible” contest you can play in, with tons of cash prizes up for grabs.

Have at least one lineup finish in the top 50% of users in that contest, and your streak continues. If none of your lineups break the 50% threshold, then your streak is over and you can start a new one the next day.

Only your longest streak gets rewarded. Reach a streak of 5, 10, 15 or 20 wins in a row to earn milestone rewards that you’ll split with everyone who also achieved it.

5 wins= $5K, 10 wins= $10K, 15 wins= $15K, 20 wins= $20k

At the end of the month, whoever achieves the longest streak could win $50,000 cash.

 

There probably will be 500 guys who play every day and split the $50k.  I suspect at least 5000 chopped the $5k for a streak of 5, meaning you'll win $1.

And I didn't consider it, but I think you are spot on in your analysis.  Sucks because I have been doing well playing the Sunday Million like cash.  That said, the ticket contest overlay has dried up so I don't even have an entry this week meaning it won't matter.  I'm sticking to cheap entires unless there's overlay.  

Last night, everything filled.  FD still trying to drive traffic to the single game or same day slates and not posting many Thu-Mon contests.

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to wait until tonight to see how much I won / have it credited to my account per FD support.  Looks like FD credited my account with 1/21 of the value of 2nd through 21st place ($51).  First prize of "Congratulations, you won tied for $1,065.00 (this is 2nd through 21st), $8,000 and ticket to WFFC Finals on 12/16 (Package value = $32,333)!"

is still outstanding.

What was your winning lineup?

Disregard I just went to my contest and saw your name on top.  Congrats.

Edited by smbkrypt24

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Have to wait until tonight to see how much I won / have it credited to my account per FD support.  Looks like FD credited my account with 1/21 of the value of 2nd through 21st place ($51).  First prize of "Congratulations, you won tied for $1,065.00 (this is 2nd through 21st), $8,000 and ticket to WFFC Finals on 12/16 (Package value = $32,333)!"

is still outstanding.

Awesome!!

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43 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

There probably will be 500 guys who play every day and split the $50k.  I suspect at least 5000 chopped the $5k for a streak of 5, meaning you'll win $1.

And I didn't consider it, but I think you are spot on in your analysis.  Sucks because I have been doing well playing the Sunday Million like cash.  That said, the ticket contest overlay has dried up so I don't even have an entry this week meaning it won't matter.  I'm sticking to cheap entires unless there's overlay.  

Last night, everything filled.  FD still trying to drive traffic to the single game or same day slates and not posting many Thu-Mon contests.

Oof - so it will end up being like that one entry I did for $1 where everybody over the point threshold splits the pot and it ended up being a whopping 9cents?

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On Friday, here is where I am thinking for my gpps: 

 

Games like a few pieces on both sides:  Atl/Clev, NE/Tenn     

Games I am looking at, but a little on the fence about:  Jax/Ind, Seat/LaR

Os that I like a few pieces of:  GB, Chargers, KC, TB

 

I am going to try to narrow it down even more.  Seems like I am really zeroing in on Atl/Clev, NE/Tenn, and Chargers this week though.   I can't seem to get myself excited about that NO/Cinc game or Wash/TB game - even to the point where my big gpp darts might be a pairing like Ingram/NO D or Barber/TB D.  (in the 25cent entries)   

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42 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Oof - so it will end up being like that one entry I did for $1 where everybody over the point threshold splits the pot and it ended up being a whopping 9cents?

Beers are on Karma tonight!

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1 hour ago, smbkrypt24 said:

What was your winning lineup?

Disregard I just went to my contest and saw your name on top.  Congrats.

Went into the lead on Ben to McDonald TD.  Thought the late McCaffrey TD was going to kill me.  Then had to hope Samuals (Pitt RB) or some other scrub didn't top McDonald in garbage time.  Interesting night because FD priced down the studs.  First place was the lineup with the MVP that was the highest scoring player which went McCaffrey to JuJu to Brown to McCaffrey to Ben.  Ben got McCaffrey by about 1/2 a point.

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46 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Oof - so it will end up being like that one entry I did for $1 where everybody over the point threshold splits the pot and it ended up being a whopping 9cents?

Yup.

Smart move on FDs part to keeping money flowing into their bigger contests later in the year.

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