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Sinn Fein

2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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Ok.  Mid-terms are over.

 

The Race for the White House is upon us.  In about 15 months, the first primaries will take place.  Over the next year, people will be jockeying for position - trying to figure out the right coalition of voters and messaging to win the Democratic Nomination - and if any brave Republican dare to challenge Trump.

 

Front-runners will come and go - the key is not to peak in 2019, but to build momentum into 2020.  The Dems will have a power struggle - old guard, progressives, centrists, men, women, whites, minorities - all vying for the soul of the party and the right to challenge Trump* in the general election.

 

*There only two people who can knock Trump out of the Republican nomination, Trump himself, or Robert Mueller.  No other candidate will pry the GOP from Trump's iron-clad grip.

 

So, let us see who emerges, and what issues rise up to the forefront over the next 12-15 months.

Edited by Sinn Fein

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I could see a 3rd scenario where things are starting to go badly but not quite terrible but he knows the #### will hit the fan and he decides not to run again and then when it does hit the fan he sits and criticizes from the sidelines 

im not sure his ego would allow him to do that though, although I’m not sure how he’d handled losing to the Dems either

i think Michigan will go Dem again in 2020 but not confident in the rest of the Midwest and Florida 

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27 minutes ago, Dan Lambskin said:

I could see a 3rd scenario where things are starting to go badly but not quite terrible but he knows the #### will hit the fan and he decides not to run again and then when it does hit the fan he sits and criticizes from the sidelines 

im not sure his ego would allow him to do that though, although I’m not sure how he’d handled losing to the Dems either

i think Michigan will go Dem again in 2020 but not confident in the rest of the Midwest and Florida 

Yeah - i think its certainly possible that Trump decides not to run - but if he runs, I don't think there will be a serious challenge.  Romney may be the only one capable of putting up a light challenge without risking blowback - but Romney won't be competitive against Trump in the primaries - too many die-hard Trump supporters who will vote in the primaries.

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4 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Ok.  Mid-terms are over.

 

The Race for the White House is upon us.  In about 15 months, the first primaries will take place.  Over the next year, people will be jockeying for position - trying to figure out the right coalition of voters and messaging to win the Democratic Nomination - and if any brave Republican dare to challenge Trump.

 

Front-runners will come and go - the key is not to peak in 2019, but to build momentum into 2020.  The Dems will have a power struggle - old guard, progressives, centrists, men, women, whites, minorities - all vying for the soul of the party and the right to challenge Trump* in the general election.

 

*There only two people who can knock Trump out of the Republican nomination, Trump himself, or Robert Mueller.  No other candidate will pry the GOP from Trump's iron-clad grip.

 

So, let us see who emerges, and what issues rise up to the forefront over the next 12-15 months.

Slight correction: there are a couple other people who could keep Trump from being the 2020 nominee.  Most prominently Mark Burnett or whoever has the power/access to leak the Apprentice raw footage. 

Also, we shouldn't lose sight of the House and Senate races in 2020, gotta keep working hard for all the great people who won those swing districts earlier this week.

Otherwise, giddyup. Time to start the long process of recovery and restoration from this disaster.  Also, quick pitch for Klobuchar.

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Yeah - I don't want to downplay the house/senate and even the local elections in 2020. 

But, I think its going to be a fascinating 12 months in front of us, as we watch the contenders for the Democratic nomination rise and fall.  I am hopeful that the Dems unite early enough to craft a positive message on why they should lead.

 

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Republicans in battleground states better start burning those records now because they've got some large demographic problems ahead. 538 reports on some exit polling showing that Dems continue to close the gap with non-college educated white people, have opened up a 59-40 lead with women in general and won the 18-29 vote Tuesday by a laughable 35 points. Jesus. Repubs, that generation isn't gonna suddenly think that immigration and crappy health care systems is the smart play in '20.

Trump apologists keep insisting that we focus on what Donald does instead of how he comports himself. That's simply not possible. Most people, and especially smart young people, see a blustery old fool like that trying to make cornball jokes and mean-spirited jibes and are instantly repelled. He's like all their dumb old relatives that they have to pretend to like while they're snoring and farting on the couch after holiday dinners.

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Bernie is going to crush you all. Both sides. He'll put the GOP down for good, and destroy the Dems from the inside to the point they'll never be recognizable in current form again.

It's a brave new world out there, folks. Don't be afraid of change. The bandwagon has plenty of room, but only until he announces his candidacy. JOIN NOW.

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17 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Republicans in battleground states better start burning those records now because they've got some large demographic problems ahead. 538 reports on some exit polling showing that Dems continue to close the gap with non-college educated white people, have opened up a 59-40 lead with women in general and won the 18-29 vote Tuesday by a laughable 35 points. Jesus. Repubs, that generation isn't gonna suddenly think that immigration and crappy health care systems is the smart play in '20.

Trump apologists keep insisting that we focus on what Donald does instead of how he comports himself. That's simply not possible. Most people, and especially smart young people, see a blustery old fool like that trying to make cornball jokes and mean-spirited jibes and are instantly repelled. He's like all their dumb old relatives that they have to pretend to like while they're snoring and farting on the couch after holiday dinners.

Don’t Look Now, but the Mountain West Is Turning Blue

And this was written when it was looking like Sinema was going to lose. 

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Back to 538 again, Nate Silver plays an interesting game with Tuesday's results in projecting possible outcomes for Grandpa Bone Spurs in 2020. Now, those are really generic outcomes and don't take into account Don's opponent two years hence. And we've seen that we can kinda throw out these "generic" polls when Don goes head to head with someone that he and the party are going to spend 15 months insulting.  That moronic "Lock her up" stuff actually works with a sizable portion of the electorate. But, coupled with the emerging demographic trends working in a direction unfavorable to him, Donald will have his work cut out for him duplicating those narrow wins in the Rust Belt.

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3 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Yeah - I don't want to downplay the house/senate and even the local elections in 2020. 

But, I think its going to be a fascinating 12 months in front of us, as we watch the contenders for the Democratic nomination rise and fall.  I am hopeful that the Dems unite early enough to craft a positive message on why they should lead.

 

Local elections are pretty important for redistricting with the 2020 census.  The last two most important election years for that (2000 and 2010) were both Republican years, which gave Republicans a lot of control over that.

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8 minutes ago, Don Quixote said:

Local elections are pretty important for redistricting with the 2020 census.  The last two most important election years for that (2000 and 2010) were both Republican years, which gave Republicans a lot of control over that.

Again - not trying to down play their importance at all, and I assume there will be plenty of threads talking about local elections, 2020 census, and the various redistricting plans that go into effect before the 2022 elections.

I am simply looking forward to watching the Democrats in particular, jockey for position, and I want to see how the Party approaches this - and how quickly they can craft a unifying message.  Because, the 2020 elections - House and Senate, will be another reflection on Democratic Leadership v. Trump.

 

Unless of course something really derails the Trump campaign - in which case it will be equally fascinating to watch how the GOP fills that vacuum. 

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13 minutes ago, Don Quixote said:

Local elections are pretty important for redistricting with the 2020 census.  The last two most important election years for that (2000 and 2010) were both Republican years, which gave Republicans a lot of control over that.

Dems have to push redistricting like Repubs pushed the Supreme Court two years ago. 

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41 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Dems have to push redistricting like Repubs pushed the Supreme Court two years ago. 

I am kind of torn on this - I wonder if they should scrap redistricting altogether.

Instead of trying to figure out the "right" districts  -  everyone in the state votes for a particular party, and then the states apportion the delegates to each party in proportion to the total vote.  Maybe each party can use the primary elections to elect their slate of Representatives - and take the top vote-getters to fill the allotted positions.

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19 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I am kind of torn on this - I wonder if they should scrap redistricting altogether.

Instead of trying to figure out the "right" districts  -  everyone in the state votes for a particular party, and then the states apportion the delegates to each party in proportion to the total vote.  Maybe each party can use the primary elections to elect their slate of Representatives - and take the top vote-getters to fill the allotted positions.

Yeah, proportional voting is far the better system but I think there's years of work ahead of us before we're ready to make a serious legislative run at it.

After the positive results in Michigan Tuesday I'm wondering if weed isn't a natural issue to drive Dem turnout. Pete Sessions of Texas wasn't re-elected and would have lost his job as chairman of the House Rules Committee anyway, where he routinely blocked any positive weed legislation from coming to a vote. Dems should push the issue now and make Senate Republicans defend their opposition out in the open.

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Politico's list of players in the Dem race

 

Lots of names, not sure how many are legitimate:

Senators - leading contenders

Booker - I think he'll run

Sherrod Brown - strategic candidate - carries Ohio

Gillibrand - don't think she has the backing of the machine, or independent voices - she will not be a factor

Tim Kaine - don't think he can go it alone, might be a VP candidate again

Klobuchar - gaining some early buzz, we'll see if its sustainable - should do well in Iowa.

Merkley - Oregon senator - I don't know much (anything?) about him - seems like a long-shot, at best

Kamala Harris - she'll run.  Lets see how she does in the mid-west.

Bernie - He'll run.  He won't be a factor.

Mark Warner - might have a better chance than Kaine - former Governor also

Warren - I think she dip her toes, but she won't last long - her window was last election cycle.

 

House Members - bigger step up, imo

Delaney (maryland) - meh - he is running, but hard to see him generating any enthusiasm.

Gabbard (Hawaii) - a progressive favorite, but a bit out of her depth imo

Joe Kennedy (Massachusetts) - has the name - but needs a moment

Seth Moulton (Massachusetts) - military background - I know nothing else

Beto O'Rourke (Texas) - he'll run, but needs to get in the national spotlight to work against Harris and Booker.

Tim Ryan (ohio) - anti-Pelosi - will need to fundraise like a madman

Eric Swalwell (California) - born in Iowa - not sure that is enough to get a good start

 

Governors - dark horses

Steve Bullock - Montana

Andrew Cuomo - New York

John Hickenlooper - Colorado

Jay Inslee - Washington

Terry McAuliffe - Virginia - too much a part of the machine...

Martin O'Malley - same as it ever was

Deval Patrick - Massachusetts 

 

Mayors 

Bloomberg - NYC

Pete Buttigieg - South Bend - young, openly gay - no chance

Eric Garcetti - Los Angeles - too much California to win in the rustbelt imo

 

 

There are some other random names - Avenatti, Cuban, Castro, Biden, Kerry, Schultz, Steyer, Oprah, etc.  But, I think the Dems, and the electorate, will turn to an experienced Pol to run against Trump.

 

 

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On 11/9/2018 at 2:17 PM, Hilts said:

No chance. And I like Schultz. But all of these businessmen look at Trump and think they can do it too. What they’re forgetting is that Trump was a businessman who starred on a television show. 

Name recognition. If you’re not a regular politician, that’s what you need to do this. Schultz doesn’t have it. 

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On 11/9/2018 at 11:40 AM, Dan Lambskin said:

I could see a 3rd scenario where things are starting to go badly but not quite terrible but he knows the #### will hit the fan and he decides not to run again and then when it does hit the fan he sits and criticizes from the sidelines 

im not sure his ego would allow him to do that though, although I’m not sure how he’d handled losing to the Dems either

i think Michigan will go Dem again in 2020 but not confident in the rest of the Midwest and Florida 

Wisconsin could flip blue. They voted out an R governor. 

Minnesota will stay blue. Iowa and Indiana will stay red. Ohio and Pennsylvania will be interesting. Trump support waning among suburban independent college educated people. 

Edited by mr roboto
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34 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Anyhow, too big a field to predict at the moment. If I had to guess I’d go with Booker but a guess is all that it is. 

Agree with the notion that it is too early.

 

Lots of things will happen over the next 12+ months leading into the primary season - and I expect the field will naturally narrow itself - there is only so much money to go around, even if a candidate takes the Bernie route, and goes for primarily grass-roots funding.  But, it all is starting now - people are jockeying for popular support and for donors.

I'd put the front runners as Booker, Harris, and O'Rourke - but they will have to sell themselves to the mid-west, because the Dems need to win back that area of the country to beat Trump.

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31 minutes ago, mr roboto said:

Wisconsin could flip blue. They voted out an R governor. 

Minnesota will stay blue. Iowa and Indiana will stay red. Ohio and Pennsylvania will be interesting. Trump support waning among suburban independent college educated people. 

I think Ohio will be red for a while in Presidential elections, and after Brown retires they'll elect a R to replace him. Ohio is getting older and college graduates from that area are leaving. I think the same is going to happen, or is happening with Michigan. 

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11 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

 I think the same is going to happen, or is happening with Michigan. 

Good luck with Michigan. They just flipped from R to D on governor. They still have 2 D senators.

One of their biggest house districts just turned D.

And Trump is still prez which always gives them something to thump against.

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Great stuff by SF

Klobuchar is very intriguing and I wouldn't count Biden out.  I a m not as bullish on Harris/Booker as most seem.  Democrats need to involve throwing a ridiculous amount of people like the GOP did in 16

I also feel like someone is going to make noise about challenging the disaster that Trump is on the right. 

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

House Members - bigger step up, imo

I will just add a caveat here - with the Dems controlling the House - there might be more opportunities for a House member to get into the national spotlight.

 

That could cut either way though....

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10 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I will just add a caveat here - with the Dems controlling the House - there might be more opportunities for a House member to get into the national spotlight.

 

That could cut either way though....

I think Schiff is going to make an even bigger name for himself, but doubt he will run for president.  He is running for Speaker IMO

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1.     Just keep him talking.  Great thing about him is that the mainstream media could just play his tweets without commentary and he'd galvanize support against him (ironically....if the MSM did this...his supporters would STILL complain about bias against him). 2020, like 2018 is going to be primarily about Trump.

2.     The Blue Wave did materialize in the Great Lakes and I think states like WI, MI and PA are going to be back in the Democratic fold.

3.    Democrats have a problem in that there's no REAL mid-level/middle age rockstar right now.

4.  To that, I think the D's would make a big mistake in picking one of the Young players to sit in the big seat.  While Obama won and I think he was a good President....I'm almost convinced that it would have been better for the Democrats  if Obama hadn't (to use the parlance of the Clinton supporter in 08) jumped the line and Hillary ran in 08 with Obama as her VP.  There was a lot of bad blood over that....and anecdotally, I've noticed a number of Trump Democrats who supported Hillary in 08.....but couldn't bring themselves to vote for her(or who very unenthusiastically voted for her) in 16.    Beto....shouldn't be The Man.  Let him be the VP and then let him build off of that.  

5.  I think the Mueller Investigation is key.....but I could see if that breaks bad for him (not impeachment bad off the jump...but more smoke, more speculation and a desire to dig more into his personal situation), that he backs out.  Gives the world one of those George Bush's memoirs in the episode of The Simpsons....."And since I'd achieved all my goals as President in one term, there was no need for a second" moment....and then rides off into the sunset; daring people to "LOCK HIM UP!!!".....

 

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6 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

1.     Just keep him talking.  Great thing about him is that the mainstream media could just play his tweets without commentary and he'd galvanize support against him

Honestly, I think that is what people thought last time...give him enough rope and he would eventually hang himself.  But, the more he blustered, the more his fans loved it. 

I think he could literally say the exact opposite things at back-to-back rallies, and his supporters would be convinced he was right both times.

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35 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Good luck with Michigan. They just flipped from R to D on governor. They still have 2 D senators.

One of their biggest house districts just turned D.

And Trump is still prez which always gives them something to thump against.

Not like I want that to happen, but i think Michigan is also losing relative population and is aging.

Edited by Dedfin

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1 minute ago, Dedfin said:

Not like I want that to happen, but i think Michigan is also losing relative population and is aging.

And aging hurts the R more than the D.

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1 minute ago, Leroy Hoard said:

And aging hurts the R more than the D.

I dont see how. Aging means young people are leaving the state.

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2 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Honestly, I think that is what people thought last time...give him enough rope and he would eventually hang himself.  But, the more he blustered, the more his fans loved it. 

I think he could literally say the exact opposite things at back-to-back rallies, and his supporters would be convinced he was right both times.

Those people are gone though....they're not coming back.   I do think though his constant prattering weighs on and influences people against him in WAY greater numbers than newcomers who support him.  

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1 minute ago, Dedfin said:

I dont see how. Aging means young people are leaving the state.

No, it means old people are dying.

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5 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Those people are gone though....they're not coming back.   I do think though his constant prattering weighs on and influences people against him in WAY greater numbers than newcomers who support him.  

I'll just say - the Dems better have a positive message on how they will govern, and not simply rely on anti-Trump...whomever gets the nomination - they need to be able to make the campaign about their ideas - and I think they (individual candidates and the DNC) need to start building that message now.  For sure, it will be tweaked over the next 12-18 months as issues rise to the forefront - but they need to know what they stand for...

Edited by Sinn Fein
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2 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I'll just say - the Dems better have a positive message on how they will govern, and not simply rely on anti-Trump...whomever gets the nomination - they need to be able to make the campaign about their ideas - and I think they (individual candidates and the DNC) need to start building that message now.  For sure, it will be tweaked over the next 12-18 months as issues rise to the forefront - but they need to know what they stand for...

What % of this election was "new ideas" and which was "anti-Trump"?

I think you're right.....but I also think a healthy dose of exposing and continually drum beating how bad of a President he's been is essential.

It'll be interesting to see how he campaigns in 2020.  I have to assume he knows his base won't go anywhere .......so I wonder if he'll try in some way to tie himself to the Democratic House in an attempt to drag them down if things go bad.

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The more I read about the good Senator from Minny, the more I like her.  I think this is a good pick.  Her choices of VP running mate are many as well.  I can't find much on foreign policy/relations, which is going to be more important than ever after 45 is out of office.

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On 11/9/2018 at 12:09 PM, Sinn Fein said:
On 11/9/2018 at 11:40 AM, Dan Lambskin said:

I could see a 3rd scenario where things are starting to go badly but not quite terrible but he knows the #### will hit the fan and he decides not to run again and then when it does hit the fan he sits and criticizes from the sidelines 

im not sure his ego would allow him to do that though, although I’m not sure how he’d handled losing to the Dems either

i think Michigan will go Dem again in 2020 but not confident in the rest of the Midwest and Florida 

Yeah - i think its certainly possible that Trump decides not to run - but if he runs, I don't think there will be a serious challenge.  Romney may be the only one capable of putting up a light challenge without risking blowback - but Romney won't be competitive against Trump in the primaries - too many die-hard Trump supporters who will vote in the primaries.

I think Trump could be defeated in a GOP primary with just a couple major candidates.  But if Trump gets defeated in a primary I think the Trump supporters stay home or go 3rd party in a large number. 

 

If Trump wants to be the nominee and he is not I don't see any path to victory for the GOP.   This is the GOPs nightmare scenario where they have the least chance to hold the presidency.

If Trump wants to be the nominee and is, I think it will be close but I would take the odds against him winning.  A lot of this  is determined by Democratic nominee.

If Trump does not want to be the nominee, I think this is the GOPs best change to keep the presidency in the 2020 election.

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Can we talk about Booker?  I don't get it.  I wasn't a fan prior to this year, then all the stupid theatrics during the Kavanaugh hearings and I sort of thought he blew it.  What am I missing that he's still a viable possibility?

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22 hours ago, The Commish said:

The more I read about the good Senator from Minny, the more I like her.  I think this is a good pick.  Her choices of VP running mate are many as well.  I can't find much on foreign policy/relations, which is going to be more important than ever after 45 is out of office.

Maybe we can give Joe Biden the permanent job of VP who lends foreign policy expertise and old white guy-ness to a ticket headed by a relatively unknown but very likable Midwestern Senator looking to break barriers.

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16 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Can we talk about Booker?  I don't get it.  I wasn't a fan prior to this year, then all the stupid theatrics during the Kavanaugh hearings and I sort of thought he blew it.  What am I missing that he's still a viable possibility?

He gives a good speech.  I like a lot of what he's had to say about criminal justice reform.  And I think part of it is that he's black and relatively young so folks think he would be well positioned to put the Obama coalition back together.

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38 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

He gives a good speech.  I like a lot of what he's had to say about criminal justice reform.  And I think part of it is that he's black and relatively young so folks think he would be well positioned to put the Obama coalition back together.

I do like the position on criminal justice.  Is that a big enough theme to mount a national campaign on?  Does he dare go the healthcare route?  Personally, I think whoever runs should be all in on infrastructure as one of the objectives. 

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1 hour ago, The Commish said:

Can we talk about Booker?  I don't get it.  I wasn't a fan prior to this year, then all the stupid theatrics during the Kavanaugh hearings and I sort of thought he blew it.  What am I missing that he's still a viable possibility?

Very intelligent and a great speaker. 

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It's real early and I'm sure my opinion will change a few times, but as of now, I think it will be Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence. 

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2 hours ago, JuniorNB said:

It's real early and I'm sure my opinion will change a few times, but as of now, I think it will be Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence. 

I think the GOP would regret going with Pence.  He will carry most of the Trump stench, without any of the benefits.  If its not Trump - they will need a stronger candidate than Pence to hold the base, and still target the center.

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