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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (4 Viewers)

That could keep me away from the ballot box.  I'd vote for Biden/Harris, not as sure about Biden/Abrams. 
I don't think she has a chance (for the Beto reason -- can't win a statewide election at home) but if you're in a battleground state, I suggest that you would be making an error in judgment if you were to follow through with this. 

 
And the reason is?
Something about Abrams rubs me the wrong way - not exactly sure about her. I'd like to see her run for Senate in Georgia, but if she was a legit vp candidate I would have liked to have seen her run for president - to be a bit more publicly vetted. 

 
I don't think she has a chance (for the Beto reason -- can't win a statewide election at home) but if you're in a battleground state, I suggest that you would be making an error in judgment if you were to follow through with this. 
Im not in a battleground state - so it's easier for me to say - but I would need a lot more convincing on her. 

That could happen - but I am not there yet. 

 
I should add - I am equally as not a fan of Biden at the top of the ticket as I would be Abrams as VP. 

We we don't need more people of the old...

 
Im not in a battleground state - so it's easier for me to say - but I would need a lot more convincing on her. 

That could happen - but I am not there yet. 
I can't hardly think of a viable Democratic VP who would make me not vote for the Dem candidate over Donald Trump. 

 
I can't hardly think of a viable Democratic VP who would make me not vote for the Dem candidate over Donald Trump. 
I look at Biden as a 1-term president, so who he chooses as VP is more important to me than perhaps other candidates- because I assume the VP will be the leading presidential candidate in 2024. 

ETA - that is why I rule out a Biden/Warren ticket. I assume a male nominee will choose a female running mate, and of those running for president now - Harris would be my choice. 

 
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Well...maybe you guys are right. 

Still I’m betting if it’s Biden and he asks Abrams, she won’t turn it down. 

Personally I would rather he ask Harris. By the time a nominee has been chosen next year, Harris will have had a lot of exposure. Abrams still isn’t known to a good deal of the country. 
I could easily see Warren turning down the offer. I would if I were her. I think Warren would be happier (and more effective) as a Senator than as Vice President. Harris too, possibly.

But I don't know why Abrams would turn down being Vice President. What's she doing right now? I think she's in private legal practice? If she wants to stay in politics, being Veep is better than her current situation, I would think.

 
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It may be Stacey Abrams instead of Harris. 
I think this is out there because of pundit and consultant hot takes on tv?

For one thing, black voters vote for black candidates because they're black is overrated as an idea. I don't think that's really true. For another, is Abrams minority leader of the Georgia house IIRC, so she is not even elected statewide, right? - Please please please select someone with experience, capability and stature. Tbqh I think Biden will follow Obama's lead and choose someone with experience who he can truly use as an effective partner in the WH. He's certainly not going to be immune to identity or base politics but at least Harris has been a US Senator and AG for the biggest state in the Union. And needless to say she is hell on wheels as a debater.

 
Got to admit, Biden/Harris does check a lot of boxes (I think someone upthread said the same). 

Biden comes in with the mandate to un#### America and, assuming Biden is in it for only one term, Harris gets two or three years to build a powerful political base leading into the 2024 election.  

I still like Warren, Klobuchar, Booker, and Buttigieg too (still think Warren is the Senate Majority Leader we need and deserve).  If Harris does not end up on the ticket, she's my top pick for AG, followed closely by Klobuchar.  Realistically, despite all the positive pub for Buttigieg, I don't think he can win the nomination, but I would like to see him get a prominent position in a 2020 D administration.  Not meant as a slight, but he would slay as a press secretary - and could parlay that into Chief of Staff/Cabinet position, and be Harris' wing man in 2024.

ETA ... And Jim Webb for Secretary of Defense and killing enemies.

 
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Not meant as a slight, but he would slay as a press secretary - and could parlay that into Chief of Staff/Cabinet position, and be Harris' wing man in 2024.
If Buttigieg does get a high-profile position, I think he’d be a favorite over VP Harris in 2024.

Vice President is a good stepping stone to President if the preceding President dies. Other than that, it doesn’t seem very good. Most Vice Presidents have run for President afterwards. Since the Twelfth Amendment was ratified in 1804 (putting Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates on the same ticket), how many Vice Presidents have become President by winning an election rather than by succeeding someone who died in office?

The list is ... George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Martin Van Buren. That’s it.

 
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If Buttigieg does get a high-profile position, I think he’d be a favorite over VP Harris in 2024.

Vice President is a good stepping stone to President if the preceding President dies. Other than that, it doesn’t seem very good. Most Vice Presidents have run for President afterwards. Since the Twelfth Amendment was ratified in 1804, how many Vice Presidents have become President by winning an election instead of by succeeding someone who died in office?

The list is ... George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Martin Van Buren. That’s it.
You make great points.

Supposing Biden/Harris in 2020, Harris would have nothing better to do than prepare for a POTUS  run.  Al Gore is sorta worthy of an asterisk on your list, btw.  Times they are a changing, and it's a near lock that we elect a woman president nlt 2024.  

 
If Buttigieg does get a high-profile position, I think he’d be a favorite over VP Harris in 2024.

Vice President is a good stepping stone to President if the preceding President dies. Other than that, it doesn’t seem very good. Most Vice Presidents have run for President afterwards. Since the Twelfth Amendment was ratified in 1804 (putting Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates on the same ticket), how many Vice Presidents have become President by winning an election rather than by succeeding someone who died in office?

The list is ... George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Martin Van Buren. That’s it.
Or is it 1-0? (Admittedly, this reminds me a little of FF/betting discussions, the Bills are 3-0 in games where Allen starts after a loss on natural turf on the road in 3 pm games....). IIRC Nixon was the only VP who ran after sitting out a term or more, no? I could be wrong because I haven't checked and some losing presidential candidates are hard to know or recall. But I think what the American people are disinclined to is a "3rd term." People just get tired of the same old and also they likely start to feel that a party or strain has too much power for too long so they switch horses.

 
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If Buttigieg does get a high-profile position, I think he’d be a favorite over VP Harris in 2024.

Vice President is a good stepping stone to President if the preceding President dies. Other than that, it doesn’t seem very good. Most Vice Presidents have run for President afterwards. Since the Twelfth Amendment was ratified in 1804 (putting Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates on the same ticket), how many Vice Presidents have become President by winning an election rather than by succeeding someone who died in office?

The list is ... George H.W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Martin Van Buren. That’s it.
Or is it 1-0? (Admittedly, this reminds me a little of FF/betting discussions, the Bills are 3-0 in games where Allen starts after a loss on natural turf on the road in 3 pm games....). IIRC Nixon was the only VP who ran after sitting out a term or more, no? I could be wrong because I haven't checked and some losing presidential candidates are hard to know or recall. But I think what the American people are disinclined to is a "3rd term." People just get tired of the same old and also they likely start to feel that a party or strain has too much power for too long so they switch horses.
John C. Calhoun and Richard M. Johnson both sought the Presidency in1844 after being out of the VP's office for 12 and 4 years, respectively. Johnson was quickly dismissed by the Democrats, while Calhoun withdrew from the race in January.

Charles W. Fairbanks sought the Presidency in 1916 after being out of the VP's office for 8 years. Instead, he ended up being selected as the VP candidate (again!). 

Henry Wallace ran for President in 1948 on the newly-formed Progressive Party ticket after being out of office for 4 years. He got 2.3% of the popular vote and is partially responsible for the "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline. (Many pundits predicted that he would get significant support from Truman voters.)

Oh, and don't forget that Dan Quayle ran for President in 2000. He finished 8th in the Iowa Straw Poll and dropped out of the race a few weeks later.

 
John C. Calhoun and Richard M. Johnson both sought the Presidency in1844 after being out of the VP's office for 12 and 4 years, respectively. Johnson was quickly dismissed by the Democrats, while Calhoun withdrew from the race in January.

Charles W. Fairbanks sought the Presidency in 1916 after being out of the VP's office for 8 years. Instead, he ended up being selected as the VP candidate (again!). 

Henry Wallace ran for President in 1948 on the newly-formed Progressive Party ticket after being out of office for 4 years. He got 2.3% of the popular vote and is partially responsible for the "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline. (Many pundits predicted that he would get significant support from Truman voters.)

Oh, and don't forget that Dan Quayle ran for President in 2000. He finished 8th in the Iowa Straw Poll and dropped out of the race a few weeks later.
The '44 election and the replacement of Wallace on the ticket with Truman is fascinating stuff. The world would be a better place if party machinations hadn't gotten Wallace out of the way. 

 
John C. Calhoun and Richard M. Johnson both sought the Presidency in1844 after being out of the VP's office for 12 and 4 years, respectively. Johnson was quickly dismissed by the Democrats, while Calhoun withdrew from the race in January.

Charles W. Fairbanks sought the Presidency in 1916 after being out of the VP's office for 8 years. Instead, he ended up being selected as the VP candidate (again!). 

Henry Wallace ran for President in 1948 on the newly-formed Progressive Party ticket after being out of office for 4 years. He got 2.3% of the popular vote and is partially responsible for the "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline. (Many pundits predicted that he would get significant support from Truman voters.)

Oh, and don't forget that Dan Quayle ran for President in 2000. He finished 8th in the Iowa Straw Poll and dropped out of the race a few weeks later.
This place is great, many thanks.

 
The '44 election and the replacement of Wallace on the ticket with Truman is fascinating stuff. The world would be a better place if party machinations hadn't gotten Wallace out of the way. 
Really? I regard Truman as our greatest President of the last century. 

 
would you hold your face to the screen for a second? me 94yo Da would like to punch you and, though he wont cross the country to do so, he'll gladly cross the house
Well, some people wouldn't have liked an earlier end to racial segregation. Perhaps the McCarthyism that sprung from Truman's loyalty program is still highly valued by a few. Who would have wanted detente forty years earlier? Some on this board may like having the debate around national health care in 2019, instead of having a President that would have enacted universal care in the 1940s. Perchance those who hold Truman in such high regard disagree with Wallace's statement that it was time to elevate women to "first-class citizenship."

Not everyone can hold those values as dear as your Pop presumably does. There's no accounting for taste.

 
Well, some people wouldn't have liked an earlier end to racial segregation. Perhaps the McCarthyism that sprung from Truman's loyalty program is still highly valued by a few. Who would have wanted detente forty years earlier? Some on this board may like having the debate around national health care in 2019, instead of having a President that would have enacted universal care in the 1940s. Perchance those who hold Truman in such high regard disagree with Wallace's statement that it was time to elevate women to "first-class citizenship."

Not everyone can hold those values as dear as your Pop presumably does. There's no accounting for taste.
I don’t know. I kinda think the Marshall Plan, the Truman Doctrine, and the Berlin Airlift make up for any of those flaws. Saving Western Europe from Stalinism is kind of a big deal. Of course Henry Wallace might not have acknowledged that since his presidential campaign was, unfortunately, riddled with Stalinists. 

 
Well, some people wouldn't have liked an earlier end to racial segregation. Perhaps the McCarthyism that sprung from Truman's loyalty program is still highly valued by a few. Who would have wanted detente forty years earlier? Some on this board may like having the debate around national health care in 2019, instead of having a President that would have enacted universal care in the 1940s. Perchance those who hold Truman in such high regard disagree with Wallace's statement that it was time to elevate women to "first-class citizenship."

Not everyone can hold those values as dear as your Pop presumably does. There's no accounting for taste.
i dont even know where you're going here. me ol man is an Attila the Hun conservative, so Wallace aint his man.

I got two words'll sum it up for me Da:

Korea

 
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I knew it! He wanted MacArthur to drop the A-bomb didn’t he? 
No he just didn't wanna go after quitting school at 15 to run the farm so his brothers could get their asses shot off, didnt graduate til he was 22, thereby receiving no scholarships (even tho even his little brother - the first person to get 100 on UVM's org chem final - said he was the smartest), then spent 5 yrs watching Captain Harry make Korea inevitable.

So more George than Henry when it comes to the Wallaces?
that right there would describe the difference between me Da & i about as well as anyone could.

 
No he just didn't wanna go after quitting school at 15 to run the farm so his brothers could get their asses shot off, didnt graduate til he was 22, thereby receiving no scholarships (even tho even his little brother - the first person to get 100 on UVM's org chem final - said he was the smartest), then spent 5 yrs watching Captain Harry make Korea inevitable.
Tragic war. Hard to see what Truman should have done though- letting the north overrun the south was deemed unthinkable at the time, and would have threatened Japan and Taiwan. 

 
Nate Silver - mixing politics and football:  :lol:

Nate Silver‏Verified account @NateSilver538

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Beyond climate, what other issue would you want to see the DNC make the subject of an entire debate?

 
The field of Democratic presidential candidates is starting to settle into tiers: Joe Biden leads the pack, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are in close competition for second place, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll shows.

Twenty-four percent of Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers say former vice president Biden is their first choice for president. Sanders, a Vermont senator, is the first choice for 16% of poll respondents, while Warren, a Massachusetts senator, and Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, are at 15% and 14% respectively. 

Eta - https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2019/06/09/iowa-poll-biden-leads-democrats-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-pete-buttigieg-caucus-2020/1360801001/

 
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The field of Democratic presidential candidates is starting to settle into tiers: Joe Biden leads the pack, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are in close competition for second place, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll shows.

Twenty-four percent of Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers say former vice president Biden is their first choice for president. Sanders, a Vermont senator, is the first choice for 16% of poll respondents, while Warren, a Massachusetts senator, and Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, are at 15% and 14% respectively. 

Eta - https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2019/06/09/iowa-poll-biden-leads-democrats-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-pete-buttigieg-caucus-2020/1360801001/
Glad to see   Biden leading the pack, the lasr thing we need is a socialist candidate!

 
Romney didn't endorse Trump in 2016, either. Didn't matter.

Although I do think it's kind of funny that Trump has officially endorsed Romney twice (in 2012 and 2018) and Romney eventually turned on Trump both times.

 
The field of Democratic presidential candidates is starting to settle into tiers: Joe Biden leads the pack, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are in close competition for second place, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll shows.

Twenty-four percent of Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers say former vice president Biden is their first choice for president. Sanders, a Vermont senator, is the first choice for 16% of poll respondents, while Warren, a Massachusetts senator, and Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, are at 15% and 14% respectively. 

Eta - https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2019/06/09/iowa-poll-biden-leads-democrats-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-pete-buttigieg-caucus-2020/1360801001/
I still think Harris belongs pretty high in that second tier despite the current polling. 

Also- I know nobody’s talked about Klobuchar for a while. Look for that to change after the debates. She’s very good. If for some reason Biden falters she might be an alternative for the centrists. 

 
The field of Democratic presidential candidates is starting to settle into tiers: Joe Biden leads the pack, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are in close competition for second place, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll shows.

Twenty-four percent of Iowa’s likely Democratic caucusgoers say former vice president Biden is their first choice for president. Sanders, a Vermont senator, is the first choice for 16% of poll respondents, while Warren, a Massachusetts senator, and Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, are at 15% and 14% respectively. 

Eta - https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2019/06/09/iowa-poll-biden-leads-democrats-bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-pete-buttigieg-caucus-2020/1360801001/
Looking again at those numbers, they’re not great for Biden. In other states he’s been at over 40%, which makes him immune to the progressive vote. But here the combined vote of Bernie and Warren beat him out. Bernie and Liz Warren basically draw from the same crowd, so if those votes unify between one or the other, that leads the pack. 

 
Glad to see   Biden leading the pack, the lasr thing we need is a socialist candidate!
This is actually a pretty poor showing by Biden, and reading the underlying data should be a real concern.

But, its only one state, and Biden currently has support in other states.  His challenge though is it will be harder for him to improve his standing, given his existing name recognition.  Candidates like Harris and Buttigieg have more upside as voters get to know them - does not mean they can reach it, but they have room for improvement, while Biden would have to rely on others struggling to pick up more supporters.

 
This is actually a pretty poor showing by Biden, and reading the underlying data should be a real concern.

But, its only one state, and Biden currently has support in other states.  His challenge though is it will be harder for him to improve his standing, given his existing name recognition.  Candidates like Harris and Buttigieg have more upside as voters get to know them - does not mean they can reach it, but they have room for improvement, while Biden would have to rely on others struggling to pick up more supporters.
Agreed. Losing Iowa wouldn’t be a catastrophe for Biden. If progressives unite behind either Warren or Bernie, Biden will likely lose Iowa. 

Hillary Clinton in 2008 wasn’t hurt by losing Iowa, she was hurt by coming in 3rd in Iowa. That destroyed her “inevitable” persona which up to that point had been her strongest attribute. If Biden were to come in 3rd then perhaps he would be in trouble as well, but we’re a long way from that yet and also there is a significant difference: in 2008 there was among establishment Democrats a viable alternative to Hillary in Barack Obama- in this election, no viable alternative to Biden has yet emerged. (Also In 2008 the Iowa results caused southern blacks to defect en masse from Hillary; doubtful that would happen here.) 

 
Looking again at those numbers, they’re not great for Biden. In other states he’s been at over 40%, which makes him immune to the progressive vote. But here the combined vote of Bernie and Warren beat him out. Bernie and Liz Warren basically draw from the same crowd, so if those votes unify between one or the other, that leads the pack. 
I don’t see it that way. Bernie has his own little party within a party that doesn’t seem to share a base with anyone else.

In other words, if Warren drops out tomorrow, I’d expect her support to be spread among all the other Democratic candidates (Harris, Buttigieg, Biden, Bernie, Klobuchar...) instead of going mostly to Bernie.

If Sanders drops out tomorrow, I’d kind of expect his support to be spread among staying home, voting third party (e.g., Green), supporting Trump, or supporting fringe candidates like Gravel or Gabbard. I wouldn’t expect his supporters to go to Warren en masse.

 
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I don’t see it that way. Bernie has his own little party within a party that doesn’t seem to share a base with anyone else.

In other words, if Warren drops out tomorrow, I’d expect her support to be spread among all the other Democratic candidates (Harris, Buttigieg, Biden, Bernie, Klobuchar...) instead of going mostly to Bernie.

If Sanders drops out tomorrow, I’d kind of expect his support to be spread among staying home, voting third party (e.g., Green), supporting Trump, or supporting fringe candidates like Gravel or Gabbard. I wouldn’t expect his supporters to go to Warren en masse.
Interesting. My assumption was based on the fact that their positions are largely the same on most issues. But maybe you’re right. 

 
Interesting. My assumption was based on the fact that their positions are largely the same on most issues. But maybe you’re right. 
Bernie has this cult following/"alternative" media support that no other D candidate is going to have.  I agree with MT's point that a lot of his voters will not end up with the eventual nominee.  I also think that he will not be dropping out of the race anytime soon.

 
Dem Debate Lottery will be held Friday morning at NBC HQ

Any pairings you'd like to see or avoid?
I hope Biden and Sanders are on different nights or I'm afraid they'll collectively suck up too much moderator attention as initial front runners.
From the perspective of beating Trump, I think it would be best if all the far-left candidates were in the same debate so that they cancel each other out. Let Bernie and Liz bicker with each other about which one of them wants to give away more of the taxpayers' dollars.

 

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