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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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10 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Yeah, I know this and that the chances of a generic Democratic nominee to win Indiana are very small.  I guess I was just thinking that maybe Buttigieg was so popular there that it could make a difference  But in thinking about it now, for the 90+% of the state that doesn't live in or near South Bend, they probably don't have any special connection to him at all.  I live in Maryland and I can't even name the mayor of Baltimore, even though it's twice as big as South Bend.

I haven't lived in Indiana in 20+ years, but I grew up there and my wife and I both have parents who live there.  South Bend is not typical of Indiana cities -- it's just barely in the state geographically.  The people who elected Pence would have no problem voting against Buttigieg even thought he's from "their state."   Far-north, central, and southern Indiana are very different and Buttigieg's popularity in South Bend won't translate to the other areas of the state.

I say that as somebody who likes Buttigieg and wishes him well.  But honestly I think he has nearly no chance of winning Indiana in a general election.

Edit: Also, you're right that nobody in the state (except for South Bend of course) knew who the mayor of South Bend was prior to this cycle.  

Edited by IvanKaramazov
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So Harris adjusted income was1.9 million last year.  The most of any democratic candidate who has released their tax returns to date.

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6 hours ago, Gopher State said:

So Harris adjusted income was1.9 million last year.  The most of any democratic candidate who has released their tax returns to date.

:shrug:

 

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2020 presidential candidate Eric Swalwell planning 4pm press conference today at campaign headquarters in California -- comes after Swalwell canceled planned trip to New Hampshire last week.

 

 

First one to drop out? 

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On 7/6/2019 at 2:41 AM, Sinn Fein said:
On 7/5/2019 at 8:09 PM, Gopher State said:

So Harris adjusted income was1.9 million last year.  The most of any democratic candidate who has released their tax returns to date.

:shrug:

Yeah.

Both parties have been electing wealthy elites for many years now. It stopped being a headline around 2016.

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54 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

2020 presidential candidate Eric Swalwell planning 4pm press conference today at campaign headquarters in California -- comes after Swalwell canceled planned trip to New Hampshire last week.

 

 

First one to drop out? 

i actually like the guy but, boy, did he do this all wrong

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Warren posted a big fundraising number in the 2nd quarter - $19.1M

That places her third on the rung behind Buttigieg - $24.8M, Biden - $21.1M  -- and ahead of Sanders $18M, and Harris $12M

What is notable is that she, unlike Buttigieg and Biden is staying away from big money donors - so that is a very good haul from grassroots support.  That should put her firmly ahead of Sanders in the race.

 

I think Harris' numbers are a little misleading - given that she made a big splash at the end of the quarter.  I suspect she has the momentum moving forward.

 

Tier 1:  Warren and Harris

Tier 2: Buttigieg

Tier Old and Tired:  Biden

Tier Democratic Socialist: Sanders

Tier Everyone Else:  Everyone else (except Swalwell)

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Saying nothing

Harris, however, seemed determined to say nothing that could be remotely construed as critical.

Her initial answer consisted of this word salad: “I think that Israel as a country is dedicated to being a democracy and is one of our closest friends in that region and that we should understand the shared values and priorities that we have as a democracy, and conduct foreign policy in a way that is consistent with understanding the alignment between the American people and the people of Israel.”

Unsatisfied, the interviewer followed up: “Does Israel meet your human rights standards to your personal satisfaction?”

Playing for time, Harris asked, “What specifically are you referring to?” before finally answering the question: “Overall, yes.”

This means that Harris sees no problem with Israel’s policy of sending snipers to systematically and deliberately kill unarmed civilians, including children, who protest their internment in the besieged Gaza Strip.

It means she sees no problem with Israel’s skyrocketing demolitions of Palestinian homes in the occupied West Bank to make way for Jewish-only settlements – a war crime.

It means she sees no problem with Israel’s military detention and torture of Palestinian children.

It means Harris sees no problem with dozens of Israeli laws that discriminate against Palestinian citizens of Israel solely for not being Jewish. These include laws and policies that promote the kind of housingdiscrimination and official segregation that is banned in the US thanks to the civil rights laws she claims to uphold.

It means she sees no problem with Israel’s recent Nation-State Law explicitly affirming superior rights for Jews over Palestinians.

Kyle Kulinski, an influential left-wing commentator and a founder of the progressive political action committee Justice Democrats, offers a scathing response.

He says that Harris brushing aside Israel’s horrific record shows that her “moral” and “ethical concerns” are “nonexistent.”

“She’s playing the political game that people play in the United States of America to try to get ahead.”

“It shows you that she’s unlikely to change anything,” he adds. “That’s why this is important.”

Kamala Harris supports segregation by supporting Israel

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Listened to last week's This American Life during my workout this morning.  It's based in Iowa following some of the Democratic candidates, and I thought some of the political junkies here would enjoy.  I found the second segment, which covered Julian Castro's debate prep, fascinating.*  The fourth segment follows Andrew Yang, and I know he has some big fans here.  The last segment is an interesting story about Bill Kristol's search for a Republican challenger to Trump.  Interspersed in all this is some coverage of events by Booker, Delaney, and others I've likely forgotten (and the voters have, too).

*Castro, by the way, has reached the 130k unique donor threshold in the past day or so.  Still needs to qualify on the polling portion for September, though.

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1 minute ago, Mystery Achiever said:

And now, Tom Steyer has declared. Enough already!
I imagine he can't qualify for Detroit debate at this point, at least.

When you plan to spend 100 million of your own money, you really don't need to be on a debate stage to get your message out.

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17 hours ago, krista4 said:

Listened to last week's This American Life during my workout this morning.  It's based in Iowa following some of the Democratic candidates, and I thought some of the political junkies here would enjoy.  I found the second segment, which covered Julian Castro's debate prep, fascinating.*  The fourth segment follows Andrew Yang, and I know he has some big fans here.  The last segment is an interesting story about Bill Kristol's search for a Republican challenger to Trump.  Interspersed in all this is some coverage of events by Booker, Delaney, and others I've likely forgotten (and the voters have, too).

*Castro, by the way, has reached the 130k unique donor threshold in the past day or so.  Still needs to qualify on the polling portion for September, though.

Look at me!  I work out!

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I was just randomly watching CNN and Inslee is talking about Acosta, and it occurred to me how just constantly on a 1-1 basis every (not almost every, every) Democrat is more competent and coherent than Trump. I don't know what I think about Inslee's policies, including climate policy, but I'd vote for him in a second above Trump and he's (I'm guessing) maybe 12th or so in the current rankings.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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25 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I was just randomly watching CNN and Inslee is talking about Acosta, and it occurred to me how just constantly on a 1-1 basis every (not almost every, every) Democrat is more competent and coherent than Trump. I don't know what I think about Inslee's policies, including climate policy, but I'd vote for him in a second above Trump and he's (I'm guessing) maybe 12th or so in the current rankings.

Inslee has been an awful Governor, but at least he can speak coherently.  He's never encountered a problem that he didn't think he could solve through higher taxes.   I do like his positions on climate change and gun control.

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On 7/5/2019 at 8:09 PM, Gopher State said:

So Harris adjusted income was1.9 million last year.  The most of any democratic candidate who has released their tax returns to date.

Good for her.  She has a pretty impressive resume.

*she could have made a crap-ton more if she went to the private side instead of working for the citizenry.

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On 7/9/2019 at 11:53 AM, Mystery Achiever said:

And now, Tom Steyer has declared. Enough already!
I imagine he can't qualify for Detroit debate at this point, at least.

Idiotic, IMO.  Save your money and go all-in with a seasoned politician you can live with.  Then back whoever the D candidate is.

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3 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I like this guy - he’s smart and should be some kind of advisor to hopefully the new President.

Czar of Important S###.

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16 hours ago, AAABatteries said:

Idiotic, IMO.  Save your money and go all-in with a seasoned politician you can live with.  Then back whoever the D candidate is.

Yes. money could be used better elsewhere than an ego trip. I haven't been a fan of Bloomberg lately, but at least he gets this.

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Latest poll: 

Biden 26

Warren 19

Harris 13

Sanders 13

Buttigieg 8

Several thoughts: 

1. It’s a 5 person race at this point. Love me some Klobuchar but her money is about to dry up. Booker can’t make any headway, Beto is a complete flop. Yang at 3% is doing  better than all of them. They’re not catching up. 

2. There’s basically two races going on at the moment: Warren vs Sanders, Biden vs Harris vs Buttigieg. The winner of the latter contest continues to have strong advantages over the former. 

3. In the progressive race Warren is clearly gaining, Bernie receding. I don’t see how this doesn’t continue. Their views are essentially indistinguishable, but Warren appears to have more energy this time around. Ironically enough the main difference between the two is that older progressive voters prefer Warren by large numbers; Bernie just can’t seem to get any headway with those above 35. That being said, the longer Bernie stays in the race the more it impedes Warren’s chances of winning the nomination. The other even more decisive problem: neither candidate has any inroads at all with the black vote. 

4. Biden has survived the first debate because blacks remain loyal for now. Harris has gained a little bit not enough. I don’t think Buttigieg has any real shot but his presence draws a little support from Biden. 

Edited by timschochet
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10 hours ago, timschochet said:

Latest poll: 

Biden 26

Warren 19

Harris 13

Sanders 13

Buttigieg 8

Several thoughts: 

1. It’s a 5 person race at this point. Love me some Klobuchar but her money is about to dry up. Booker can’t make any headway, Beto is a complete flop. Yang at 3% is doing  better than all of them. They’re not catching up. 

2. There’s basically two races going on at the moment: Warren vs Sanders, Biden vs Harris vs Buttigieg. The winner of the latter contest continues to have strong advantages over the former. 

3. In the progressive race Warren is clearly gaining, Bernie receding. I don’t see how this doesn’t continue. Their views are essentially indistinguishable, but Warren appears to have more energy this time around. Ironically enough the main difference between the two is that older progressive voters prefer Warren by large numbers; Bernie just can’t seem to get any headway with those above 35. That being said, the longer Bernie stays in the race the more it impedes Warren’s chances of winning the nomination. The other even more decisive problem: neither candidate has any inroads at all with the black vote. 

4. Biden has survived the first debate because blacks remain loyal for now. Harris has gained a little bit not enough. I don’t think Buttigieg has any real shot but his presence draws a little support from Biden. 

Why do you think that Buttigieg is more in the second race than the first? I imagine his greatest support is young white idealistic progressives, which is who I assume also support Bernie and to a lesser extent Warren. Seems like Harris and Biden would be fighting for the older, more moderate, and African American vote. 

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7 minutes ago, turnerj0 said:

Why do you think that Buttigieg is more in the second race than the first? I imagine his greatest support is young white idealistic progressives, which is who I assume also support Bernie and to a lesser extent Warren. Seems like Harris and Biden would be fighting for the older, more moderate, and African American vote. 

His numbers are so low, that the differences in the crosstabs probably aren't statistically significant, but FWIW his numbers are slightly better for Moderate/Conservative and  50 yrs+
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631

Edited by Mystery Achiever
forgot link

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7 minutes ago, turnerj0 said:

Why do you think that Buttigieg is more in the second race than the first? I imagine his greatest support is young white idealistic progressives, which is who I assume also support Bernie and to a lesser extent Warren. Seems like Harris and Biden would be fighting for the older, more moderate, and African American vote. 

Buttigieg is a moderate. 

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30 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

His numbers are so low, that the differences in the crosstabs probably aren't statistically significant, but FWIW his numbers are slightly better for Moderate/Conservative and  50 yrs+
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2631

And if he keeps fundraising like he did in Q2 he will stick around.

Edited by sho nuff

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I liked Gillenbrand’s townhall answer about white privlege 

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9 minutes ago, joffer said:

I liked Gillenbrand’s townhall answer about white privlege 

She's still way below the Mendoza Line.

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12 hours ago, timschochet said:

Love me some Klobuchar but her money is about to dry up.

I think Klobuchar still has a path to being POTUS, namely she better than the rest can connect with Iowa voters.  If she can build momentum a couple of weeks before the Iowa caucus, stranger things could happen.  It's a long shot, but not unreasonable.  

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10 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

I think Klobuchar still has a path to being POTUS, namely she better than the rest can connect with Iowa voters.  If she can build momentum a couple of weeks before the Iowa caucus, stranger things could happen.  It's a long shot, but not unreasonable.  

I initially thought Klobuchar had a shot for those same reasons - solid mid-western support to build from - but if you look at the Iowa polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/

 

She is not a factor. 

I get that many people are still trying on different candidates and very few are firm commitments - but I think she needed to make a move this summer.  Iowa (and New Hampshire) are still very much small-town politics where they will get out and meet the candidates in smaller settings and really get to "know" the candidates.  Klobuchar simply is not resonating during this prime meet-and-greet season.  It will be hard to make that up in the winter months.

 

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

I initially thought Klobuchar had a shot for those same reasons - solid mid-western support to build from - but if you look at the Iowa polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/iowa/

 

She is not a factor. 

I get that many people are still trying on different candidates and very few are firm commitments - but I think she needed to make a move this summer.  Iowa (and New Hampshire) are still very much small-town politics where they will get out and meet the candidates in smaller settings and really get to "know" the candidates.  Klobuchar simply is not resonating during this prime meet-and-greet season.  It will be hard to make that up in the winter months.

 

I mostly concur.  As much as I like her, her campaign has a summer vacation vibe to it all.

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Update on the Third Dem debate (In September) qualification criteria from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wont-be-easy-for-many-democrats-to-make-the-september-debate/

 

Candidates need 130,000 donors and 2%+ in 4 post-first debate national polls.  (There have been 6 qualifying polls since the debate)

 

So far the top-5 have qualified:  Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders and Biden

 

Beto needs 1 more poll to qualify, Yang and Castro need 3 more polls.

Booker has the polls, needs more donors

Klobuchar needs one more poll and more donors.

 

Everyone else still needs 4 polls and more donors - i.e. they are not likely to make the cut-off.

 

So, it could be as many as 10 still in the race - when the debates hit September.  That still feels too big - but I think the focus in the debate will be among the top-5.

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1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

So, it could be as many as 10 still in the race - when the debates hit September.  That still feels too big - but I think the focus in the debate will be among the top-5.

I thin that number is fine for September.  IMO, coming out of September, they should take a break from debates and book their top 6 guys all over TV and everybody goes after Trump.  Then come back to debates a few months later.

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On 7/12/2019 at 5:51 AM, timschochet said:

4. Biden has survived the first debate because blacks remain loyal for now. Harris has gained a little bit not enough. I don’t think Buttigieg has any real shot but his presence draws a little support from Biden. 

Harris is more than a 2-1 favorite over Biden.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

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22 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Harris is more than a 2-1 favorite over Biden.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Really surprises me. 

I would prefer Harris over Biden, and the oddsmakers must think her climb is just starting. But if South Carolina stays the way it is right now I’m having trouble seeing her path. I suppose that California having an earlier primary is good for her but we’re not winner take all and Joe has got a lot of money and organization here. 

I hope the betters are right...

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Poor Bernie. Time to wrap it up.

BREAKING: Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign has been hit with an unfair labor practice complaint alleging illegal employee interrogation and retaliation against staffers.

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54 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

Poor Bernie. Time to wrap it up.

BREAKING: Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign has been hit with an unfair labor practice complaint alleging illegal employee interrogation and retaliation against staffers.

Wow...

 

Gotta walk it if you talk it.

Edited by identikit

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4 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

Poor Bernie. Time to wrap it up.

BREAKING: Sen. Bernie Sanders' 2020 presidential campaign has been hit with an unfair labor practice complaint alleging illegal employee interrogation and retaliation against staffers.

“As noted by Bloomberg Law, it’s unclear if the National Labor Relations Board will find any merit to the complaint, since “any person” is allow to file, per the board’s site.”

Filed in Indiana.  Where’s Mike Pence?

 

 

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20 minutes ago, -fish- said:

“As noted by Bloomberg Law, it’s unclear if the National Labor Relations Board will find any merit to the complaint, since “any person” is allow to file, per the board’s site.”

Filed in Indiana.  Where’s Mike Pence?

 

 

Might have come from South Bend.

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NEW: Rattled by @KamalaHarris' deft vivisection of @JoeBiden, Republicans ahead of Detroit wonder how she'd fare against @realDonaldTrump. “She doesn’t come across as a nutjob,” said one, who fears Harris wld reconstitute Obama coalition. bit.ly/2JQkDwP @VanityFair

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This GOP self-ownage is pretty funny https://twitter.com/sethmoulton/status/1154499076530024450?s=20

 

GOP response is just sad. Low energy.

Replying to

@sethmoulton

You may want to call your office then, Congressman. We bought it from the House of Representatives.

3:48 PM · Jul 25, 2019·Sprout Social

Edited by Bucky86

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The more I read, the more I'm convinced that making steady and sensible progress on health care reform - and really pounding on the issue during the campaign - is the best path to defeating Donald next November. The Pubbies don't have a single bullet in their holster on health care and they openly admit it. They would really like for the topic to just go away.

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58 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that making steady and sensible progress on health care reform - and really pounding on the issue during the campaign - is the best path to defeating Donald next November. The Pubbies don't have a single bullet in their holster on health care and they openly admit it. They would really like for the topic to just go away.

I would agree, but the perception of Obamacare’s failure to live up to its promises don’t bode well for the Dems imho.

Edited by TripItUp

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54 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I would agree, but the perception of Obamacare’s failure to live up to its promises don’t bode well for the Dems imho.

An April AP poll showed that Americans trusted Dems more than Republicans to manage health care by 17 points (40-23, not great for either party). 57% of Americans believe that the federal government should be responsible for making sure that everyone has affordable health care.

Both parties have enormous room for improvement on this issue but only one of them has the opportunity to pick up the ball and really run with it. The other one still opposes universally available health care as a core belief and I think that will cost them more dearly with each ensuing election.

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Sahil Kapur‏Verified account @sahilkapur

Quinnipiac poll: 2020 Democrats Biden 34% (+12 since a month ago) Warren 15% (+1) Harris 12% (-8) Sanders 11% (-2) Buttigieg 6% (+2) O’Rourke 2% (+1) Yang 2% (+1)

[everyone else 1% or less] margin of error: +/- 5 points

10:56 AM - 29 Jul 2019

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The problem is how to quantify the size of the "Supporting, but won't publicly admit it" vote.
The Squad/Cummings/Whoever is Next Bashing could make that an increasingly large segment, decreasing reliability of any poll.

Edited by Mystery Achiever
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Yang becomes 8th Dem to qualify for 3rd Debate:

 

Yang is the eighth candidate to qualify for the third debate, following Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas).

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro has met the donor threshold but not the polling requirement.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has met the polling threshold but not the donor requirement.

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On 7/28/2019 at 6:29 PM, roadkill1292 said:

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that making steady and sensible progress on health care reform - and really pounding on the issue during the campaign - is the best path to defeating Donald next November. The Pubbies don't have a single bullet in their holster on health care and they openly admit it. They would really like for the topic to just go away.

Have said from the beginning this is as close to a silver bullet as you're gonna get in politics today.  It's simple enough to acknowledge the deficiencies and lay out the complications of the original plan and all the various points of failure.  Then move on to the fact that the GOP has made it worse financially.  Then move on to the fact that the GOP has no documented alternative despite 10+ years of opportunity to fix it and 2 years to write and bring up for a vote ANYTHING they wanted, yet nothing.  

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