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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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The more I read, the more I'm convinced that making steady and sensible progress on health care reform - and really pounding on the issue during the campaign - is the best path to defeating Donald next November. The Pubbies don't have a single bullet in their holster on health care and they openly admit it. They would really like for the topic to just go away.

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58 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that making steady and sensible progress on health care reform - and really pounding on the issue during the campaign - is the best path to defeating Donald next November. The Pubbies don't have a single bullet in their holster on health care and they openly admit it. They would really like for the topic to just go away.

I would agree, but the perception of Obamacare’s failure to live up to its promises don’t bode well for the Dems imho.

Edited by TripItUp

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54 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I would agree, but the perception of Obamacare’s failure to live up to its promises don’t bode well for the Dems imho.

An April AP poll showed that Americans trusted Dems more than Republicans to manage health care by 17 points (40-23, not great for either party). 57% of Americans believe that the federal government should be responsible for making sure that everyone has affordable health care.

Both parties have enormous room for improvement on this issue but only one of them has the opportunity to pick up the ball and really run with it. The other one still opposes universally available health care as a core belief and I think that will cost them more dearly with each ensuing election.

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Sahil Kapur‏Verified account @sahilkapur

Quinnipiac poll: 2020 Democrats Biden 34% (+12 since a month ago) Warren 15% (+1) Harris 12% (-8) Sanders 11% (-2) Buttigieg 6% (+2) O’Rourke 2% (+1) Yang 2% (+1)

[everyone else 1% or less] margin of error: +/- 5 points

10:56 AM - 29 Jul 2019

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The problem is how to quantify the size of the "Supporting, but won't publicly admit it" vote.
The Squad/Cummings/Whoever is Next Bashing could make that an increasingly large segment, decreasing reliability of any poll.

Edited by Mystery Achiever
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Yang becomes 8th Dem to qualify for 3rd Debate:

 

Yang is the eighth candidate to qualify for the third debate, following Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.), South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D), and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas).

Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro has met the donor threshold but not the polling requirement.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) has met the polling threshold but not the donor requirement.

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On 7/28/2019 at 6:29 PM, roadkill1292 said:

The more I read, the more I'm convinced that making steady and sensible progress on health care reform - and really pounding on the issue during the campaign - is the best path to defeating Donald next November. The Pubbies don't have a single bullet in their holster on health care and they openly admit it. They would really like for the topic to just go away.

Have said from the beginning this is as close to a silver bullet as you're gonna get in politics today.  It's simple enough to acknowledge the deficiencies and lay out the complications of the original plan and all the various points of failure.  Then move on to the fact that the GOP has made it worse financially.  Then move on to the fact that the GOP has no documented alternative despite 10+ years of opportunity to fix it and 2 years to write and bring up for a vote ANYTHING they wanted, yet nothing.  

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8 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Have said from the beginning this is as close to a silver bullet as you're gonna get in politics today.  It's simple enough to acknowledge the deficiencies and lay out the complications of the original plan and all the various points of failure.  Then move on to the fact that the GOP has made it worse financially.  Then move on to the fact that the GOP has no documented alternative despite 10+ years of opportunity to fix it and 2 years to write and bring up for a vote ANYTHING they wanted, yet nothing.  

you both may be right.  odd that it's an issue i care very little about.  definitely not in the top 5.

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7 minutes ago, joffer said:

you both may be right.  odd that it's an issue i care very little about.  definitely not in the top 5.

To be clear, it doesn't affect me directly most of the time, but we got hit with an unexpected surgery for my wife and through the process of watching all this unfold before my eyes, it's pretty clear something needs to be done and it's not just about throwing insurance at people and wishing them luck.  There is inefficiency and monetary loss at every single turn.  It's one of those "it doesn't matter until it does" things for us and we are in a GROUP plan...I can't imagine the individual market plans and how those people navigate that mess.

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Given this a lot of thought, because all along i've indicted Democrats as much as Republicans for the Trump phenomenon and am still nowhere near as upset by our current President as i was by Dubya, and i've decided that, unless the country really comes to embrace Peteyjudge's good citizenship model, to support victory by the "socialist" wing of the Democratic Party over these tepid Anyone But Trump efforts. A couple of months ago, i was sure that the President's constituency was capped and that the Donkeys couldn't screw it up unless they nominated Liz Warren and she had a meltdown in the debates, but i keep remembering thinking the same way in 2004.

Bush43 (though he probably had a higher cap than Trump will) had proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was a muppet-brained puppet to a crony govt selling us downriver to their corrupt vision - i was amazed that opponents never did an opposition ad, alternately flashing the dozens of brrrrutal headlines of GWB wrongs with his malaprops with "Four more years?! Really?!?!" at the end - but America still re-upped him so we'd have a financial crisis to go with our international follies, the most shameful political moment in American History.

Then 8 yrs of no vision, no plans, no solutions from Obama (even tho Dubya had pushed the pins halfway up the alley) and Hillary Clinton's legacy push that legitimized BOTH Sanders & Trump and America achieved the government it deserves - a babysitter running a live minicam peepshow out of our house. Thinking about it, though, there is no chance that stasis-quo Democratic politics is going to reverse any courses and stands just as good a chance of advancing our demise as the incumbent - without the daily embarrassments and withering pathologies, of course. If i'm right, this might actually be the time to take the chance to change governance over a hobbled opponent. For an unaffiliated leftist who has never seen a leftist American government nor a leftist Democratic candidate in 48 yrs, maybe this is a time to be seized.

Edited by wikkidpissah
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17 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Yang becomes 8th Dem to qualify for 3rd Debate:

Not yet: 

In an email sent by the DNC to Yang on Tuesday that was obtained by The Hill, the DNC said he had failed to submit four polls in which he had received at least 2 percent support. 

It said two polls sent by Yang, a July 11 poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal and a July 19 poll by NBC and SurveyMonkey, would only count as one poll because they were conducted by the same sponsor — NBC.

"Candidates may only count one NBC-sponsored national poll released during the current qualification period," DNC senior adviser Mary Beth Cahill wrote to the Yang campaign in the email.

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What time does the actual debate begin tonight? CNN has been saying 7:00 PM CT, but is that just the 'pre-game' where they have a panel of 15 Democratic pundits previewing the debate OR is that when the candidates are asked questions?

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57 minutes ago, cubd8 said:

What time does the actual debate begin tonight? CNN has been saying 7:00 PM CT, but is that just the 'pre-game' where they have a panel of 15 Democratic pundits previewing the debate OR is that when the candidates are asked questions?

Should be right @ 7 pm for you.

5 pm PDT/8 pm EDT

CNN has a preview show scheduled an hour before that.

 

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1 hour ago, identikit said:

Should be right @ 7 pm for you.

5 pm PDT/8 pm EDT

CNN has a preview show scheduled an hour before that.

 

CNN's debate preview show began the second the last one ended.

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2 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

It said two polls sent by Yang, a July 11 poll from NBC and The Wall Street Journal and a July 19 poll by NBC and SurveyMonkey, would only count as one poll because they were conducted by the same sponsor — NBC. "Candidates may only count one NBC-sponsored national poll released during the current qualification period," DNC senior adviser Mary Beth Cahill wrote to the Yang campaign in the email.

Yang is contesting because DNC lists NBC andWSJ separately as acceptable sources.

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I'm having trouble understanding why Dems need to decide whether our candidates should stress policy or attack the Trump incompetence. These don't seem to be mutually exclusive. Campaign ads can stress Democratic policies intended to help people with the problems they face at the same time they're running clips of the president saying untruthful, divisive and stupid stuff.

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2 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

I'm having trouble understanding why Dems need to decide whether our candidates should stress policy or attack the Trump incompetence. These don't seem to be mutually exclusive. Campaign ads can stress Democratic policies intended to help people with the problems they face at the same time they're running clips of the president saying untruthful, divisive and stupid stuff.

The current president is like a Star Trek monster who absorbs the attention paid to it to become stronger. The necessity and outrage felt by his opponents is the charm of him to those Undecideds who went his way in '16 and may consider him again because the power he has to heat the collars of "elites" is still attractive in its way. The temptation to campaign "against" is stronger than its ever been, but giving America something to vote "for" is still the way out. Going no farther than saying that we dont have now what we could have next is the Kirk move.

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4 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

The current president is like a Star Trek monster who absorbs the attention paid to it to become stronger. The necessity and outrage felt by his opponents is the charm of him to those Undecideds who went his way in '16 and may consider him again because the power he has to heat the collars of "elites" is still attractive in its way. The temptation to campaign "against" is stronger than its ever been, but giving America something to vote "for" is still the way out. Going no farther than saying that we dont have now what we could have next is the Kirk move.

I understand this but I think we're drastically understating how clips of the dumb and deceitful things Donald says -- there are an endless number of them by now -- are also emotionally powerful and effective with those who prize character in their highest elective office. Yeah, there are lots who want to stick a collective finger in the elites' eyes but I believe there are even more who are viscerally appalled by this president.

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Just now, roadkill1292 said:

I understand this but I think we're drastically understating how clips of the dumb and deceitful things Donald says -- there are an endless number of them by now -- are also emotionally powerful and effective with those who prize character in their highest elective office. Yeah, there are lots who want to stick a collective finger in the elites' eyes but I believe there are even more who are viscerally appalled by this president.

But they've already left him.

Politics is about power. Who feels they have an effect on anything anymore?! Our institutions are too unwieldy. But this President pokes eyes, doubles down, plays nyaahnyaah games with or in front of world leaders. The power of the bully is palpable to any human being and a vote for one is the loudest one's voice is likely to ever be.

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4 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

But they've already left him.

I think we're on the same page, we're just not evaluating the raw numbers the same way. The polling numbers I see indicate a steady movement away from The Don from those who either supported him in 2016 or who have been lukewarm about the whole thing all along. 

If I'm wrong about this -- and it won't be the first time -- we're in for another four years of a not very bright, principled or empathetic guy unencumbered by the fear of re-election.

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7 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

I think we're on the same page, we're just not evaluating the raw numbers the same way. The polling numbers I see indicate a steady movement away from The Don from those who either supported him in 2016 or who have been lukewarm about the whole thing all along. 

If I'm wrong about this -- and it won't be the first time -- we're in for another four years of a not very bright, principled or empathetic guy unencumbered by the fear of re-election.

Well, that's why I was so impressed when Peteyjudge was inviting '16 Trump voters back into the tent months ago when all the other candidates were playing either "look @ me!!" or "nyaah-nyaah Trump". And, in what little i saw of last nite's debate, he impugned the character of those who continue to back the President past the point of national embarrassment for party's sake. Those are non-attack attacks i can get behind. No heat for a StarTrek monster to absorb.

 

 

Sidebar: Until 9/11 (though Whitewater might actually have been the hinge), my most-used phrase about American politics was "Most Americans are conservative 'til their own are taken care of, then as liberal as they can afford to be". My first criteria for feeling alright about this country is being able to say that again. The rest is interior-decorating.

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>>Representative Jay Inslee, Democrat of Washington, was candid. "I have to be honest with you, I'm not familiar with that proposal," he said. "But it's coming to the point now that a blind eye to it for the next 10 years is not the answer."<<

On the sensitive issue of what to do about the situation in Freedonia.

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12 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

>>Representative Jay Inslee, Democrat of Washington, was candid. "I have to be honest with you, I'm not familiar with that proposal," he said. "But it's coming to the point now that a blind eye to it for the next 10 years is not the answer."<<

On the sensitive issue of what to do about the situation in Freedonia.

I'd vote for President Firefly over about 75% of the current field.

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Now this is a good tweet. I may have to give Michael Bennet some more consideration:

 

"If you elect me president, I promise you won’t have to think about me for 2 weeks at a time. I’ll do my job watching out for North Korea and ending this trade war. So you can go raise your kids and live your lives."

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On 8/6/2019 at 3:41 PM, whoknew said:

Now this is a good tweet. I may have to give Michael Bennet some more consideration:

 

"If you elect me president, I promise you won’t have to think about me for 2 weeks at a time. I’ll do my job watching out for North Korea and ending this trade war. So you can go raise your kids and live your lives."

I’ll say it, I like Bennet.

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Just watched Sen Klobuchar on Cspan on the stage the Iowa state fair and she knocked it out of the park. I am surprised that she is not getting more traction in this race. She has more plans and ideas  and understands more about the issues than any other candidate IMO

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2 hours ago, lazyike said:

Just watched Sen Klobuchar on Cspan on the stage the Iowa state fair and she knocked it out of the park. I am surprised that she is not getting more traction in this race. She has more plans and ideas  and understands more about the issues than any other candidate IMO

She’s awesome. It’s a shame she won’t matter.

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On ‎8‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 5:12 PM, joffer said:

She’s awesome. It’s a shame she won’t matter.

What I am more concerned about is that any Dem won`t matter. I am a UPS driver and interact with hundreds of people a week. I just don`t feel excitement toward any Dem candidate.   Then I hear well things are going really good right now among my fellow workers  so why change. 

I guess if we can control congress and take the senate it won`t matter.

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Looks like Hickenlooper might be dropping out to run for the Senate seat instead.  That would be great, IMO.

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10 minutes ago, krista4 said:

Looks like Hickenlooper might be dropping out to run for the Senate seat instead.  That would be great, IMO.

The Democratic establishment in Texas is encouraging O'Rourke to do the same thing against John Cornyn. 

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12 hours ago, Summer Wheat said:

I guess if we can control congress and take the senate it won`t matter.

Not entirely sure what you are getting at here - but Dems cannot win the Senate without also winning the White House - imo.

 

I do worry that if the Dems nominate Biden - it will have a negative impact on down-ticket races - because, like it or not, Biden is not bringing the crowds to the voting booths.

I am hopeful that the Dems see this before its too late...

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12 hours ago, Summer Wheat said:

What I am more concerned about is that any Dem won`t matter. I am a UPS driver and interact with hundreds of people a week. I just don`t feel excitement toward any Dem candidate. 

I must be out of the loop in terms of UPS drivers and their daily interactions with people and political talk.

But what? I get dozens of things delivered to my work/house each week from UPS. I never have more than a 2 second conversation with the driver and that convo goes something like "hey - thanks" - "no problem, have a good day".

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12 hours ago, Summer Wheat said:

What I am more concerned about is that any Dem won`t matter. I am a UPS driver and interact with hundreds of people a week. I just don`t feel excitement toward any Dem candidate.   Then I hear well things are going really good right now among my fellow workers  so why change. 

I guess if we can control congress and take the senate it won`t matter.

 

2 minutes ago, the moops said:

I must be out of the loop in terms of UPS drivers and their daily interactions with people and political talk.

But what? I get dozens of things delivered to my work/house each week from UPS. I never have more than a 2 second conversation with the driver and that convo goes something like "hey - thanks" - "no problem, have a good day".

Depends on your personality I suppose.

:P

 

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Economist/Yougov 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination poll posted today:

Biden 23

Warren 20

Sanders 16

Harris 8

 

The poll organization is given a 'B' by 538.

 

Tightening up, kids.

 

 

Edited by identikit

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27 minutes ago, the moops said:

I must be out of the loop in terms of UPS drivers and their daily interactions with people and political talk.

But what? I get dozens of things delivered to my work/house each week from UPS. I never have more than a 2 second conversation with the driver and that convo goes something like "hey - thanks" - "no problem, have a good day".

Yes

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13 hours ago, Summer Wheat said:

What I am more concerned about is that any Dem won`t matter. I am a UPS driver and interact with hundreds of people a week. I just don`t feel excitement toward any Dem candidate.   Then I hear well things are going really good right now among my fellow workers  so why change. 

I guess if we can control congress and take the senate it won`t matter.

You seem to be a good person to ask about all the Trump voters on your route. Are they as shy as rumored?

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2 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

You seem to be a good person to ask about all the Trump voters on your route. Are they as shy as rumored?

Not at all.  Half my day in spent at a large metro hospital delivering to medical staffs and patients .  For some reason the doctors and nurses hate the Affordable Care Act. A couple years ago one doctor went on a rant in the cafeteria ripping on Obama.  So they are not shy at all.   My fellow UPS people don`t say much but they never bash Trump politics, they dislike his Tweets but we have really good health care plans and business is booming so I don`t think they will vote Trump out, but you never know.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Summer Wheat said:

Not at all.  Half my day in spent at a large metro hospital delivering to medical staffs and patients .  For some reason the doctors and nurses hate the Affordable Care Act. A couple years ago one doctor went on a rant in the cafeteria ripping on Obama.  So they are not shy at all.   My fellow UPS people don`t say much but they never bash Trump politics, they dislike his Tweets but we have really good health care plans and business is booming so I don`t think they will vote Trump out, but you never know.

 

 

Why do you think they lie to pollsters but not to their UPS guy?

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