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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (5 Viewers)

timschochet said:
Putting aside Trump’s phone call, is there anything at all to this Biden story? (About Hunter, the Ukraine, Biden exerting influence, etc) Because I don’t want him chosen as the nominee and then be hit with this mess. That’s all we need at this point. 
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Seems like there was at least a conflict of interest.   

 
Truth is this trouble me more than the gaffes, the possible aging- all of it. In supporting Biden Over Warren, my main formula is: the 2020 election needs to be about Donald Trump. For that purpose, Joe Biden up to this point has been the perfect candidate. He’s quiet, His policies are quiet. Just a normal guy, return to the status quo. Exactly the right formula to trounce the volatile Trump. 

But this crap, if anything is true, could change that entire dynamic. 

 
timschochet said:
Truth is this trouble me more than the gaffes, the possible aging- all of it. In supporting Biden Over Warren, my main formula is: the 2020 election needs to be about Donald Trump. For that purpose, Joe Biden up to this point has been the perfect candidate. He’s quiet, His policies are quiet. Just a normal guy, return to the status quo. Exactly the right formula to trounce the volatile Trump. 

But this crap, if anything is true, could change that entire dynamic. 
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A talked to a client of mine today who is convinced Warren will end up the Dem nominee.  He said the shoe will drop on Biden next week.   :shrug:

 
Don't Noonan said:
A talked to a client of mine today who is convinced Warren will end up the Dem nominee.  He said the shoe will drop on Biden next week.   :shrug:
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If a “shoe dropped on Biden next week”, thrn the establishment/ centrist wing of the Democratic Party would quickly move to promote another camdidate: Klobuchar, Buttigieg, maybe even Harris or Booker, etc. They won’t let it be Warren without a fight, IMO. 

 
Warren's already opened a significant lead in the betting markets -- she's 3/2 to Biden's 3/1.  No one else is closer than 6/1 (Yang, Sanders, Harris).  All that has to happen for Warren to win is for her to maintain current course and heading IMO.

 
timschochet said:
If a “shoe dropped on Biden next week”, thrn the establishment/ centrist wing of the Democratic Party would quickly move to promote another camdidate: Klobuchar, Buttigieg, maybe even Harris or Booker, etc. They won’t let it be Warren without a fight, IMO. 
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Agreed.  Although I think Harris and Booker are too progressive and have their own issues.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Warren's already opened a significant lead in the betting markets -- she's 3/2 to Biden's 3/1.  No one else is closer than 6/1 (Yang, Sanders, Harris).  All that has to happen for Warren to win is for her to maintain current course and heading IMO.
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Noticed today Trump was +105. I think he was - 250 this time a year ago. 

 
Alex Seitz-Wald

@aseitzwald

NEWS: In a memo to staff obtained by NBC News, Cory Booker's campaign manager warns "we do not see a legitimate long-term path forward" unless they can raise $1.7 million by the end of Q3 -- 10 days from now.

 
Warren leads Biden for the first time in Iowa:

Warren 22
Biden 20
Sanders 11
Buttigieg 9
Harris 6
Booker 3
Klobuchar 3
Gabbard 2
O'Rourke 2
Steyer 2
Yang 2
Castro 1
Delaney 1


Also notable because it's the best polling outfit in Iowa (every cycle Seltzer nails the hard-to-poll caucuses) and because it shows Sanders in the 2nd tier with Buttigieg and Harris.

Sanders may split the NH vote enough that Biden hangs on in NH (though I wouldn't bet on it), but she's winning Iowa and may sweep the first two.

If Sanders doesn't find a win in NH or NEV I hope he drops quickly and lets support coalesce around Warren.  You'd think having her win would be more palatable than Biden, but it's Sanders -- so who knows what he'll do.

 
Seems like we have 5 names leading the Democrat candidates with Biden leading the pack  because they want a moderate that has the best shot of defeating Trump. My concern is should Biden stumble or faulter there really isn’t a fallback moderate candidate polling high enough to give voters another moderate choice. For me it would be Klobuchar who I prefer over Biden anyway.

 
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timschochet said:
If a “shoe dropped on Biden next week”, thrn the establishment/ centrist wing of the Democratic Party would quickly move to promote another camdidate: Klobuchar, Buttigieg, maybe even Harris or Booker, etc. They won’t let it be Warren without a fight, IMO. 
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I think Warren is much closer to the establishment than she leads on.  It will be Warren and she will come closer to the center after getting the nomination.

 
Max Power said:
I think Warren is much closer to the establishment than she leads on.  It will be Warren and she will come closer to the center after getting the nomination.
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The problem with Warren, to put it simply, is Medicare for All. There was a Wall Street Journal poll I saw yesterday that suggested it was one of about 4 “progressive” issues: the others being student loans, giving health insurance to illegal immigrants, and certain parts of the Green New Deal (and I think you can add a 5th one with gun control.) 

On each of these issues the general public tends to support positions that are decidedly left of the base of the Republican Party, but are decidedly right of the base of the Democratic Party. For instance, around 66% of the public at large is in favor of strengthening Obamacare, rather than trying to get rid of it as the GOP under Trump keeps trying to do. However, while nearly the same percentage- 66%- of Democrats world like to replace Obamacare with Medicare for All, 66% of the entire voting public is opposed to this. 

Which means that if Warren is the nominee then Medicare for All becomes problematic- it will be the official stance of the Democratic Party, and most of the nation does not want it. Healthcare, which should be a winning position for Democrats, will be transformed into a losing one. 

 
timschochet said:
around 66% of the public at large is in favor of strengthening Obamacare, rather than trying to get rid of it as the GOP under Trump keeps trying to do. However, while nearly the same percentage- 66%- of Democrats world like to replace Obamacare with Medicare for All, 66% of the entire voting public is opposed to this. 
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The problem with these numbers - NOBODY knows what constitutes "Obamacare" or what constitutes "Medicare-for-All" - or how any of it really impacts their lives.

So when you say something like "Strengthen Obamacare" - What does that even mean?  What does it look like?

I think most people don't want Medicare-For-All because they see it as raising their taxes.  Most people don't look at this as a total cost situation - where "taxes" might go up, but overall costs could go down.  Its a disservice to everyone that major media does not get this - and feeds into the raised taxes mantra.

By the time Warren starts pushing her agenda in congress, these questions will have to be resolved.  And, if she can't contain the costs in her plan, it won't go anywhere.

 
Sinn Fein said:
I think most people don't want Medicare-For-All because they see it as raising their taxes.
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I think it’s because people are risk-averse about their health, so they want to keep the option of just resubscribing to the same insurance plan they already have, or something pretty similar, instead of being prohibited from buying private insurance altogether.

That’s why Medicare For All Who Want It sounds more attractive, politically, than Medicare For All, That’s It, Too Bad, Suck It.

I still don’t see how the issue will favor Republicans, though, as long as their plan is: Repeal Obamacare and Replace It With Something Terrific That We Can’t Tell You About Because It’s A Secret.

Also, I’m really hoping that health care isn’t what drives how people vote this time — or gun control, abortion, taxes, climate change, Supreme Court Justices, etc.

Everybody should be a single-issue voter this time around, and the issue should be: let’s not have a President who is literally a national security threat.

Everything else can be hashed out later.

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Warren leads Biden for the first time in Iowa:

Warren 22
Biden 20
Sanders 11
Buttigieg 9
Harris 6
Booker 3
Klobuchar 3
Gabbard 2
O'Rourke 2
Steyer 2
Yang 2
Castro 1
Delaney 1


Also notable because it's the best polling outfit in Iowa (every cycle Seltzer nails the hard-to-poll caucuses) and because it shows Sanders in the 2nd tier with Buttigieg and Harris.

Sanders may split the NH vote enough that Biden hangs on in NH (though I wouldn't bet on it), but she's winning Iowa and may sweep the first two.

If Sanders doesn't find a win in NH or NEV I hope he drops quickly and lets support coalesce around Warren.  You'd think having her win would be more palatable than Biden, but it's Sanders -- so who knows what he'll do.
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An important wrinkle with Iowa is that voters will be asked to pick their second choice if their first choice receives less than 15% of the vote. Here are the combined first & second choice numbers from that Seltzer poll, and they look even better for Warren:

Code: 
Warren 42%
Biden 30%
Sanders 21%
Buttigieg 18%
Harris 16%
Booker 7%
Klobuchar 7%
O'Rourke 4%
Yang 4%
Gabbard 3%
Steyer 3%
Castro 2%
 
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caustic said:
An important wrinkle with Iowa is that voters will be asked to pick their second choice if their first choice receives less than 15% of the vote. Here are the combined first & second choice numbers from that Seltzer poll, and they look even better for Warren:

Warren 42%
Biden 30%
Sanders 21%
Buttigieg 18%
Harris 16%
Booker 7%
Klobuchar 7%
O'Rourke 4%
Yang 4%
Gabbard 3%
Steyer 3%
Castro 2%
Click to expand...

At each debate Biden just needs to keep hammering her with the same question: how does Medicare for All get paid for? No matter how she tries to avoid saying there will be a huge tax increase, eventually she will have to admit it. And then her numbers should go down. 

 
timschochet said:
At each debate Biden just needs to keep hammering her with the same question: how does Medicare for All get paid for? No matter how she tries to avoid saying there will be a huge tax increase, eventually she will have to admit it. And then her numbers should go down. 
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I thought her answer was to tax the 1% and corporations enough to cover it.

 
Max Power said:
I thought her answer was to tax the 1% and corporations enough to cover it.
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That’s more Bernie’s answer than hers and that’s laughable too. What Warren does is try to focus on the total cost rather than taxes- which is actually a good long term argument- just not for this election. 

Actually, the best argument is being made by Kamala- despite all the crap she’s gotten for it. She says, correctly, that we have to go to Medicare for All eventually, but that it will be a slow process and it’s not going to happen in the next 4 years. She is 100% right- from the moment we decided to charge people with pre-existing conditions the same price as everybody else we placed ourselves on an inevitable track to Medicare for All because long term Obamacare is unsustainable. But nobody wants to hear “this is going to take a decade or longer”. They either want Warren and Sanders to tell them that they can have Medicare for All right now, or they want Biden to tell them that he can solve all of Obamacare’s problems right now, or if they’re conservatives they want Trump to tell them he can get rid of Obamacare, return things to the way they were, yet still protect people with pre-existing conditions, and all of it right now. We are addicts and we need an immediate fix. 

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I think it’s because people are risk-averse about their health, so they want to keep the option of just resubscribing to the same insurance plan they already have, or something pretty similar, instead of being prohibited from buying private insurance altogether.

That’s why Medicare For All Who Want It sounds more attractive, politically, than Medicare For All, That’s It, Too Bad, Suck It.

I still don’t see how the issue will favor Republicans, though, as long as their plan is: Repeal Obamacare and Replace It With Something Terrific That We Can’t Tell You About Because It’s A Secret.

Also, I’m really hoping that health care isn’t what drives how people vote this time — or gun control, abortion, taxes, climate change, Supreme Court Justices, etc.

Everybody should be a single-issue voter this time around, and the issue should be: let’s not have a President who is literally a national security threat.

Everything else can be hashed out later.
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This should be every Dem's bumper sticker. 

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I think it’s because people are risk-averse about their health, so they want to keep the option of just resubscribing to the same insurance plan they already have, or something pretty similar, instead of being prohibited from buying private insurance altogether.

That’s why Medicare For All Who Want It sounds more attractive, politically, than Medicare For All, That’s It, Too Bad, Suck It.

I still don’t see how the issue will favor Republicans, though, as long as their plan is: Repeal Obamacare and Replace It With Something Terrific That We Can’t Tell You About Because It’s A Secret.

Also, I’m really hoping that health care isn’t what drives how people vote this time — or gun control, abortion, taxes, climate change, Supreme Court Justices, etc.

Everybody should be a single-issue voter this time around, and the issue should be: let’s not have a President who is literally a national security threat.

Everything else can be hashed out later.
Click to expand...


The General said:
This should be every Dem's bumper sticker. 
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Will probably need a large carbon footprint SUV for that to fit.

 
Dont care if you're ACA, single-payer, MFA or support HMOs operated by rainbow-colored health unicorns, if you are a presidential candidate who expresses a concern for the physical and financial well-being of this nation and DON"T address reining in cost as the #1 priority (and to my knowledge, no presidential candidate has made combating the medical establishment a serious, nm #1, concern), you are talking thru your hat.

 
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Sinn Fein said:
The problem with these numbers - NOBODY knows what constitutes "Obamacare" or what constitutes "Medicare-for-All" - or how any of it really impacts their lives.

So when you say something like "Strengthen Obamacare" - What does that even mean?  What does it look like?

I think most people don't want Medicare-For-All because they see it as raising their taxes.  Most people don't look at this as a total cost situation - where "taxes" might go up, but overall costs could go down.  Its a disservice to everyone that major media does not get this - and feeds into the raised taxes mantra.

By the time Warren starts pushing her agenda in congress, these questions will have to be resolved.  And, if she can't contain the costs in her plan, it won't go anywhere.
Click to expand...
Medicare-For-All is simply a term used to con seniors into thinking that Medicare won’t change with the implementation of universal health coverage .  As soon as they find out that’s not true the whole thing will fall on its face.

Sometimes government can trick people long enough to force the medicine down their throats before they know what happened.  Healthcare is way too big and complex to do that.  No effective healthcare plan, universal or not, will be passed until the Baby Boomers lose their political clout.

 
wikkidpissah said:
Dont care if you're ACA, single-payer, MFA or support HMOs operated by rainbow-colored health unicorns, if you are a presidential candidate who expresses a concern for the physical and financial well-being of this nation and DON"T address reigning in cost as the #1 priority (and to my knowledge, no presidential candidate has made combating the medical establishment a serious, nm #1, concern), you are talking thru your hat.
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Same thing with the student debt/college finance issue too.

 
Warren Surge continues - this time in California:

The latest monthly tracking poll for California’s March 2020 Democratic primary election shows Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren increasing her share of the vote, for the first time pushing former Vice President Joe Biden down to third place among likely voters.

Initial Presidential Vote (N=599)

  1. Elizabeth Warren       173          29%
  2. Bernie Sanders       125          21%
  3. Joe Biden       109         18%
  4. Kamala Harris        64            11%
  5. Peter Buttigieg        44           7%
  6. Andrew Yang        24                 4%
  7. Tulsi Gabbard        15           2%
  8. Beto O’Rourke        13          2%
  9. Cory Booker          7              1%
  10. Amy Klobuchar          6         1%
  11. Julian Castro          5            1%
  12. Marianne Williamson          5        1%
  13. Tom Steyer          2                0%
 
Max Power said:
I've been assured that this is still Biden's race to lose and he is the only one who can beat Trump.
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I believe both. With a little less assurance than I had before but I believe them. 

Well a correction- Warren can beat Trump. But she will have a much more difficult time of it. 

 
timschochet said:
Make Warren the nominee. 
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She 1000x better than Biden.

You did not listen to me last cycle.  Listen to me now - Biden is not the best nominee for the Dems.  He offers nothing.  He is a security blanket.  And the only person excited about a security blanket is Linus.

I still think Pete is in the mix, of course, but he had a better chance beating out Biden, than he does Warren.  

 
Sinn Fein said:
She 1000x better than Biden.

You did not listen to me last cycle.  Listen to me now - Biden is not the best nominee for the Dems.  He offers nothing.  He is a security blanket.  And the only person excited about a security blanket is Linus.

I still think Pete is in the mix, of course, but he had a better chance beating out Biden, than he does Warren.  
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I’m not the one you need to convince here. The people you need to convince are the independent voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania who will decide this election. You need to convince them that a leftist woman professor from Massachusetts, who is for Medicare for All, will be better for them than Trump. And believe me, if she is the nominee I sure as hell hope you can. But forgive me for having doubts about this. 

 
Sinn Fein said:
She 1000x better than Biden.

You did not listen to me last cycle.  Listen to me now - Biden is not the best nominee for the Dems.  He offers nothing.  He is a security blanket.  And the only person excited about a security blanket is Linus.

I still think Pete is in the mix, of course, but he had a better chance beating out Biden, than he does Warren.  
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It's really a lose lose here.  Warren might be the better candidate, but you are underestimating the "safe" factor in the national election. Polling indicates people want a non-scary president and Grandpa Joe is just that.  We aren't sure what we are getting with Warren yet and that will scare people in the general.

 
The advantage that Biden has had over Warren is that, to the average person, he has a greater air of general leadership competence. He was Vice President for eight years, he's affable and avuncular (or maybe grandfatherly), and he's starred in a number of pleasing internet memes.

Warren is the scold who gave us extra geometry homework in ninth grade.

The thing is, that advantage erodes as people see more of them.

Biden doesn't really inspire confidence upon close scrutiny, while Warren's intelligence and grasp of policy details become evident.

I'd expect Warren's momentum against Biden to continue.

 
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