Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Sinn Fein

2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Look I didn't say that it locks up Biden as the winner but of course it helps him. If Bernie drops out, all his support goes to Warren. If Bernie stays in, he splits up the progressive vote and that gives Biden a much better chance. This isn't complicated.

Morning Consult polls second choices, and Biden is the second choice for a plurality of Bernie supporters.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, caustic said:

Morning Consult polls second choices, and Biden is the second choice for a plurality of Bernie supporters.

OK, this is a much better argument than Tim's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

So your argument is that there may be some states where Biden wins a plurality of votes if Bernie is in the race, and that voters in other states will therefore be more inclined to support Biden as a result?  I thought you said "this isn't complicated."  It's very complicated and very speculative.  

OK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sanders will not quit his campaign before the convention because it's his final relevance; because, since he became the thorn in the Dem's side chasing Hillary he's become as addicted to his process as the President is to his and because he believes himself to be the conscience of the Party and pre-absolved for whatever he says since virtually everything he was clamoring about and being called crazy for four years ago are now significant planks in the Democratic platform.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Republican, I fully support Warren or Bernie...whichever socialist has the best chance of losing to the Republicans.

We must preserve capitalism(our form of it), freedom and the American way of life.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Laughing 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

As a Republican, I fully support Warren or Bernie...whichever socialist has the best chance of losing to the Republicans.

We must preserve capitalism(our form of it), freedom and the American way of life.

👌

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Update:

Sanders: $25M

Buttigieg: $19M

Booker: $6M

 

 

Booker will be out before Iowa unless he makes a big move in the next couple of months.  He rallied late, just to get to $6M, but that is not enough to run an effective campaign in the early states.

Sanders: $25.3 million
Buttigieg: $19.1 million
Harris: $11.6 million
Booker: $6 million

 

Its not a terrible number for Harris, and I don't know how much cash she was able to move over from her senate campaign, but she is needs a real big Q4 in terms of support.

I think the expectations are that Warren will post a big number in the Bernie range, and then there is BIden.  One quote from his campaign: "What a Biden campaign official did tell me of Q3 fundraising was: "The issue here is whether you have enough money to run your race. We unequivocally do." Read into that what you will."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Sanders: $25.3 million
Buttigieg: $19.1 million
Harris: $11.6 million
Yang: $10 million
Booker: $6 million

Adding Yang

 

Yang puts up a good number - and really highlights the difficulty that Booker is in (and probably Klobuchar).

I think we are still waiting on Biden and Warren.

Of course, the bigger (more important) numbers will come with the actual FEC filings later this month - how much cash on hand.  In that regard, the senators have a slight *big?) advantage in that they can move money over from Senate re-election funds - so their cash on hand may put them in a better position that simply looking at cash raised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Terrible news about Bernie.i hope he is better soon. 

But- I don’t think it’s in poor taste to discuss in this thread the implications if Bernie is either sidelined for a long while or forced to leave the race: IMO, either scenario would make Liz Warren a prohibitive favorite. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Terrible news about Bernie.i hope he is better soon. 

But- I don’t think it’s in poor taste to discuss in this thread the implications if Bernie is either sidelined for a long while or forced to leave the race: IMO, either scenario would make Liz Warren a prohibitive favorite. 

 

I agree - but I also think she is a prohibitive favorite right now.

 

Bernie's camp says the ad-buy is not a cancellation, but a postponement.  And, on a certain level, that makes sense - you want to coordinate an ad-buy around a candidate's activities.  But, aside from the fact that I thought Bernie was limited before this incident - I see absolutely no way for him to go on and get the nomination as a 78-yo, with a heart problem - even minor.

For Biden - I think Bernie's issues will cut both ways. On one hand, he is the obvious current foil for Warren - and nobody really wants a candidate winning by default - so people could stick with Biden a little longer than they would have otherwise.  On the other hand - Bernie's health scare, will also serve as a reminder of Biden's own age - and potential for health issues.  And, that may hasten voters to move to a younger candidate (albeit Warren is not exactly "young").

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warren's one-day gains is pretty close to the sum of Biden+Sanders; losses. It's a shame we have to have a twelve person debate when it seems to be a three person race.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i was back in the box dealing poker on Saturday night after a Wednesday angioplasty. Bernie wont miss a beat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking for a statistic. What % of the black vote is considered uneducated? Just want the number. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Max Power said:

Looking for a statistic. What % of the black vote is considered uneducated? Just want the number. 

And then?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just numbers. We are breaking down trump's base as uneducated. I wanted to know what %of AA voters are considered uneducated. It's a fair question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/1/2019 at 8:01 PM, TripItUp said:

As a Republican, I fully support Warren or Bernie...whichever socialist has the best chance of losing to the Republicans.

We must preserve capitalism(our form of it), freedom and the American way of life.

This didn't go unnoticed...well done :lmao: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Max Power said:

Just numbers. We are breaking down trump's base as uneducated. I wanted to know what %of AA voters are considered uneducated. It's a fair question.

No it isn’t. I objected to the earlier question about Trump’s base; yours is worse. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let’s get back to the main issue of this thread. 

The RNC wants to run against Liz Warren. I believe Trump wants to run against Liz Warren. I wrote a few months back that Trump will lose the election for sure unless the Democratic nominee is either Liz Warren or Bernie Sanders; then it’s up in the air. I believe that even more firmly now. 

The Democrats are putting themselves in a trap here and it frustrates me to no end. Why are so many of them insisting on rolling the dice with Warren if Biden is a sure thing? And if Biden is not to your taste, then Buttigieg, or Harris, Booker or Klobuchar- anybody but the socialists? If we do this we’re giving Trump a chance to win despite everything, because he and the Republicans will focus solely on her large scale ideas and try to scare the public. And they might succeed. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Let’s get back to the main issue of this thread. 

The RNC wants to run against Liz Warren. I believe Trump wants to run against Liz Warren. I wrote a few months back that Trump will lose the election for sure unless the Democratic nominee is either Liz Warren or Bernie Sanders; then it’s up in the air. I believe that even more firmly now. 

The Democrats are putting themselves in a trap here and it frustrates me to no end. Why are so many of them insisting on rolling the dice with Warren if Biden is a sure thing? And if Biden is not to your taste, then Buttigieg, or Harris, Booker or Klobuchar- anybody but the socialists? If we do this we’re giving Trump a chance to win despite everything, because he and the Republicans will focus solely on her large scale ideas and try to scare the public. And they might succeed. 

Do you think that Buttigieg, Harris, Booker or Klobuchar aren't going to be "the socialist" in this little play should they get the starring role?

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The Commish said:

Do you think that Buttigieg, Harris, Booker or Klobuchar aren't going to be "the socialist" in this little play should they get the starring role?

He will make that play with everyone, including Biden whom you did not mention. But that’s not the point. The point is, I think that with Warren or Sanders Trump will have the chance of succeeding at it. With the others he won’t. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Let’s get back to the main issue of this thread. 

The RNC wants to run against Liz Warren. I believe Trump wants to run against Liz Warren. I wrote a few months back that Trump will lose the election for sure unless the Democratic nominee is either Liz Warren or Bernie Sanders; then it’s up in the air. I believe that even more firmly now. 

The Democrats are putting themselves in a trap here and it frustrates me to no end. Why are so many of them insisting on rolling the dice with Warren if Biden is a sure thing? And if Biden is not to your taste, then Buttigieg, or Harris, Booker or Klobuchar- anybody but the socialists? If we do this we’re giving Trump a chance to win despite everything, because he and the Republicans will focus solely on her large scale ideas and try to scare the public. And they might succeed. 

Lets be honest Tim - you were certain Trump (or any GOP candidate) would only lose to Clinton last cycle...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

He will make that play with everyone, including Biden whom you did not mention. But that’s not the point. The point is, I think that with Warren or Sanders Trump will have the chance of succeeding at it. With the others he won’t. 

Why?  Either the American people are smart enough to understand what he's attempting to do or they aren't...especially when ANY of them bring up the current "socialist" positions like the tariffs and relief payments to the farmers etc.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Sinn Fein said:

Lets be honest Tim - you were certain Trump (or any GOP candidate) would only lose to Clinton last cycle...

I wish you would stop repeating this because it simply isn’t true. I feared Trump, feared that he would win. I thought the odds were against it but that it was closer than a lot of people thought and I consistently wrote that he had a decent shot. 

Doesn’t matter; in the past I’ve been wrong about elections about as much as I’ve been right,  but it has no relevance to this current argument. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, The Commish said:

Why?  Either the American people are smart enough to understand what he's attempting to do or they aren't...especially when ANY of them bring up the current "socialist" positions like the tariffs and relief payments to the farmers etc.

Because a lot of independents and conservatives who don’t like Trump are scared of Warren’s proposals. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to be clear- I am not predicting that Warren, if she is the nominee, will lose to Trump. She could easily win and there are lots of reasons to think she will. 

What I’m saying is it’s an unnecessary risk. I think most of the others are sure things; she isn’t. 

Edited by timschochet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Why are so many of them insisting on rolling the dice with Warren if Biden is a sure thing? 

I'll answer you.  Warren is pretty close to my dream candidate.  The chances of getting someone like her elected President, in a normal election, aren't great.  But because the GOP is a disaster right now, I actually think her chances are very good to win.  Maybe they're slightly less good than a few other Dems, but I'm not really all that certain of that, and in any case those candidates are less desirable to me.  I'm willing to "roll the dice" because Warren is worth it.

Edited by fatguyinalittlecoat
  • Like 2
  • Love 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I'll answer you.  Warren is pretty close to my dream candidate.  The chances of getting someone like her elected President, in a normal election, aren't great.  But because the GOP is a disaster right now, I actually think her chances are very good to win.  Maybe they're slightly less good than a few other Dems, but I'm not really all that certain of that, and in any case those candidates are less desirable to me.  I'm willing to "roll the dice" because Warren is worth it.

OK. I can respect that POV

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Just to be clear- I am not predicting that Warren, if she is the nominee, will lose to Trump. She could easily win and there are lots of reasons to think she will. 

What I’m saying is it’s an unnecessary risk. I think most of the others are sure things; she isn’t. 

I think electing a temperamental old white guy is an unnecessary risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Because a lot of independents and conservatives who don’t like Trump are scared of Warren’s proposals. 

If these people actually KNOW the policy proposals in any detail, they also know the likelihood of them being passed in today's political climate.  It seemed like you were talking about the uninformed being scared by the term "socialist".  That's the more legit concern as I see it....way more people in that group than the "informed independent/conservatives who don't like Trump" group.  IMO, that group has already made up their minds.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The Commish said:
25 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Because a lot of independents and conservatives who don’t like Trump are scared of Warren’s proposals. 

If these people actually KNOW the policy proposals in any detail, they also know the likelihood of them being passed in today's political climate.  It seemed like you were talking about the uninformed being scared by the term "socialist".  That's the more legit concern as I see it....way more people in that group than the "informed independent/conservatives who don't like Trump" group.  IMO, that group has already made up their minds.

I remember when a majority of Americans were afraid of "the gays" too.  I think a majority Americans got over that really quick once policies started being enacted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Because a lot of independents and conservatives who don’t like Trump are scared of Warren’s proposals. 

Are you scared of Warren's proposals?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Marauder said:

Are you scared of Warren's proposals?

Nope. The ones I don’t like will never get passed. But even if they did I’m not scared of them. I disagree with them but if they pass somehow I will be optimistic and hopeful. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, timschochet said:

Nope. The ones I don’t like will never get passed. But even if they did I’m not scared of them. I disagree with them but if they pass somehow I will be optimistic and hopeful. 

Then why do you think other people will be?   People making decisions on who to support because they think other people will think a certain way kind of drives me nuts.   I don't think you are giving other people enough credit.  We, as humans, are generally not very good at predicting what other people are going to think.  If everybody just voted for the candidate they think will make the best President that would give us the best chance of ending up with the best nominee.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Why are so many of them insisting on rolling the dice with Warren if Biden is a sure thing? And if Biden is not to your taste, then Buttigieg, or Harris, Booker or Klobuchar- anybody but the socialists?

Biden isn’t a sure thing.

Buttigieg, Booker, or Klobuchar would be great. I’d prefer all of them to Biden, Warren, or Harris.

But Warren is expressly not a socialist. It’s weird for you to describe her that way.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Doesn’t matter; in the past I’ve been wrong about elections about as much as I’ve been right,  but it has no relevance to this current argument. 

Sure it does. You should have very little confidence in your belief that Biden is more electable than Warren. Electability is difficult to predict, only a very few savants may actually be reliably good at it (if anybody at all is), and your track record suggests that you are not one of those very few savants.

You think Biden is a sure thing in the general, but you also thought he was a sure thing in the primary. Maybe you should be skeptical of your ability to evaluate sure things in electoral politics.

  • Like 4
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think before the phone call with Ukraine amplified the old debunct story about Biden, he was the most electable. However, now I don't think that is true. I continue to worry about some electability issues with Warren, but all of them are unfair and I think she would be a good president. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Marauder said:

Then why do you think other people will be?   People making decisions on who to support because they think other people will think a certain way kind of drives me nuts.   I don't think you are giving other people enough credit.  We, as humans, are generally not very good at predicting what other people are going to think.  If everybody just voted for the candidate they think will make the best President that would give us the best chance of ending up with the best nominee.

I think that others will be afraid of Warren because most Americans regardless of political leanings, seem to believe that the President has far more power to enact economic and social change than they actually do. This is a flaw in our national thinking, and it causes  people to argue over positions of candidates which in truth are irrelevant because it’s just not going to happen. An example: Warren is one of several candidates who wants to get rid of the electoral college. Is this a good idea? A bad one? Doesn’t matter because if she’s elected it’s not going to happen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Biden isn’t a sure thing.

Buttigieg, Booker, or Klobuchar would be great. I’d prefer all of them to Biden, Warren, or Harris.

But Warren is expressly not a socialist. It’s weird for you to describe her that way.

Bernie is a Democratic socialist. Warren shares most of Bernie’s views. I believe that the Republicans will have success describing her as a socialist, whether the term is accurate or not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Sure it does. You should have very little confidence in your belief that Biden is more electable than Warren. Electability is difficult to predict, only a very few savants may actually be reliably good at it (if anybody at all is), and your track record suggests that you are not one of those very few savants.

You think Biden is a sure thing in the general, but you also thought he was a sure thing in the primary. Maybe you should be skeptical of your ability to evaluate sure things in electoral politics.

Normally I would agree with this analysis, as cutting as it is to me, lol. 

But this election is different, unique, because of Donald Trump. By all rights this election should be a referendum on Donald Trump’s 1st term, which is why he should lose to just about anyone. But because Liz Warren’s proposals are going to be regarded, by at least a significant part of the population, as far removed from the mainstream status quo, there is the risk that the election will become a referendum on those proposals rather than Trump. This is also true of Bernie but not of any other of the candidates. 

Therefore Warren and Bernie are unnecessary risks IMO. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, timschochet said:

Because a lot of independents and conservatives who don’t like Trump are scared of Warren’s proposals. 

I think you're opinion is fueled by what I consider to be propaganda, where people who will absolutely vote for Trump like to tease the possibility that they will vote for a Democrat if it's someone "reasonable." 

Exhibit A:  Russian trolls (and sympathizers) who prop up the likes of Tulsi Gabbard and Marianne Williamson in online polls. 

I cannot conceive of anything Warren (or any other Democratic candidate with a realistic shot) could say or do that would make me cast a vote for Trump. 

 

Edited by Mister CIA
  • Like 3
  • Love 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

A this point, I'm thinking Buttigieg is going to pull this thing off.  

I can see the race quickly getting reduced to Warren, Biden, and Buttigieg.  I think Warren prevails, but I would not be surprised at all if he were picked to be the VP candidate.  In fact, I've got $5 that says this is exactly  how it plays out.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, timschochet said:

Why are so many of them insisting on rolling the dice with Warren if Biden is a sure thing? And if Biden is not to your taste, then Buttigieg, or Harris, Booker or Klobuchar- anybody but the socialists?

Because I want Trump to be the "disjunctive" president that finally ends the era started with Reagan.   A fatally flawed era which has set America back.

I don't want Trump to be just an "affiliated" presidency.   Biden, absent some type of crisis that forces his hands would make that the case as Biden would just be another "pre-emptive" president in the Reagan line.

There were times around the beginning of Obama's second term where he was spoken of as the next "transformative" (or "reconstructive") president, times during his first campaign where he seeked that role,  but I think he settled in as just another from the opposition party in the Reagan line.   Warren might be just the same as Obama in the end, but at least there is hope that we can finally stick a fork into this failed experiment of the conservative revolution.   It is overdue!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

I think you're opinion is fueled by what I consider to be propaganda, where people who will absolutely vote for Trump like to tease the possibility that they will vote for a Democrat if it's someone "reasonable." 

Exhibit A:  Russian trolls (and sympathizers) who prop up the likes of Tulsi Gabbard and Marianne Williamson in online polls. 

I cannot conceive of anything Warren (or any other Democratic candidate with a realistic shot) could say or do that would make me cast a vote for Trump. 

 

I’m aware of this stunt, but I also think that there are enough people who truly feel this way to have a chance to swing the election. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bottomfeeder Sports said:

Because I want Trump to be the "disjunctive" president that finally ends the era started with Reagan.   A fatally flawed era which has set America back.

I don't want Trump to be just an "affiliated" presidency.   Biden, absent some type of crisis that forces his hands would make that the case as Biden would just be another "pre-emptive" president in the Reagan line.

There were times around the beginning of Obama's second term where he was spoken of as the next "transformative" (or "reconstructive") president, times during his first campaign where he seeked that role,  but I think he settled in as just another from the opposition party in the Reagan line.   Warren might be just the same as Obama in the end, but at least there is hope that we can finally stick a fork into this failed experiment of the conservative revolution.   It is overdue!

I can respect this POV like the one earlier by fatguy. 

Yet I think both of you are making the error I referred to earlier: giving the President way too much power. Unless Warren is able to bring in a wave of progressives with her in House and Senate (very doubtful) she’s not going to be able to cause near enough change to stick the fork in that you want. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, timschochet said:

I’m aware of this stunt, but I also think that there are enough people who truly feel this way to have a chance to swing the election. 

I'm hopeful that a heavy presence in swing states leading up to November will prevent a second catastrophe, and I think Warren is more than capable of delivering an economic message that will appeal to (actual) swing voters in battleground midwestern states.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

I'm hopeful that a heavy presence in swing states leading up to November will prevent a second catastrophe, and I think Warren is more than capable of delivering an economic message that will appeal to (actual) swing voters in battleground midwestern states.  

As I’ve stated before, if Warren is the candidate I will be behind her 100% without any reservation- 

UNLESS the miracle were to happen: Trump is impeached and removed, Pence is so damaged by the impeachment that he chooses not to run, and the Republicans nominate a reasonable centrist like Haley or the governor of Ohio- in that extremely unlikely event, I have the right to reconsider my options. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I can respect this POV like the one earlier by fatguy. 

Yet I think both of you are making the error I referred to earlier: giving the President way too much power. Unless Warren is able to bring in a wave of progressives with her in House and Senate (very doubtful) she’s not going to be able to cause near enough change to stick the fork in that you want. 

Reagan had some coat tails that brought some GOP senators with him to DC, but he at best had a Boll Weevil House and slight majority in the Senate but he was able to use the bully pulpit to alter the course of the nation for the next forty years.   Four years of Warren promoting a better vision for the nation is what we needed.  It is what Bernie could have done these past three years.   Sure Reagan took his Senate and slightly over 50% popular vote too scream he had a mandate to get a few things done early, but most of the conservative revolution has happened as a result of the constant drum beat of the vision being sold first by Reagan and then those that followed a decade plus later.  Warren won't likely transform things overnight (again absent some crisis), she'll just set up on the course to correct the wrong turn that we took  that has been the Reagan era.   

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.