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Sinn Fein

2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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On 10/19/2019 at 9:33 AM, Ramsay Hunt Experience said:

Heard the theory that he’s doing it because he’s sick of being asked to run against Conryn. “Try to elect me in Texas now, #######s!”

Checks out:

 

WOLF: Will you stay in the race if you don’t qualify for next debate?

BETO: I’m planning on qualifying for that next debate

WOLF: What if you don’t?

BETO: I’ll stay in the race

WOLF: Any chance you‘ll drop out and run for Senate?

BETO: No

WOLF: No chance?

BETO: No chance

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Not sure if anyone remembers him, but Tim Ryan officially withdraws from the race:

 

Tim Ryan@TimRyan · 6m

I’m announcing today that I am withdrawing from the Presidential campaign.

I got into this race in April to really give voice to the forgotten people of our country. I look forward to continuing that fight.

Thank you, to everyone who supported this campaign.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

So, what is the count now? 18?

If Marianne Williamson is still in, it's over 400, because she is multitudes

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4 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

If Marianne Williamson is still in, it's over 400, because she is multitudes

A veritable legion of positivity...

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It takes a village to raise a child

It only takes a flashback to become one

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My brother just started a Democratic Presidential Fantasy League today, and I have pick #2 in the draft.  Rules and points are a little sketchy at the moment, but right now I know you accumulate points each Sunday that your candidates are still in the race.   Pick #1 was Warren.  Think I'm going with my heart on pick #2:  👻ttigieg!

In looking at the list of the 18 that remain, I realized I'd never even heard of two of them.  Joe Stesak?  Wayne Messam?

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:

My brother just started a Democratic Presidential Fantasy League today, and I have pick #2 in the draft.  Rules and points are a little sketchy at the moment, but right now I know you accumulate points each Sunday that your candidates are still in the race.   Pick #1 was Warren.  Think I'm going with my heart on pick #2:  👻ttigieg!

In looking at the list of the 18 that remain, I realized I'd never even heard of two of them.  Joe Stesak?  Wayne Messam?

Interesting. Good luck!

Messam is a mayor somewhere in FL who's been in it a long time. Sestak is a former PA congressman and one of the last to enter.

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55 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Interesting. Good luck!

Messam is a mayor somewhere in FL who's been in it a long time. Sestak is a former PA congressman and one of the last to enter.

Thanks for the info.

With the second pick, I ended up with what I think is a good team:  Mayor Pete, Harris, Steyer, and Tulsi.  Only four teams drafting.  Williamson and Seastack or whatever it was were left undrafted and are available on waivers.

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On 10/24/2019 at 9:36 AM, Sinn Fein said:

Not sure if anyone remembers him, but Tim Ryan officially withdraws from the race:

 

Tim Ryan@TimRyan · 6m

I’m announcing today that I am withdrawing from the Presidential campaign.

I got into this race in April to really give voice to the forgotten people of our country. I look forward to continuing that fight.

Thank you, to everyone who supported this campaign.

 

 

Kind of ironic. The forgotten candidate for the forgotten people.

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:

With the second pick, I ended up with what I think is a good team:  Mayor Pete, Harris, Steyer, and Tulsi. 

I hope you win...for selfish and unselfish reasons.
The tricky part is figuring out the egos, i.e. who chooses to stay in longer than they should! Tulsi deciding not to run again for her seat definitely gives her more staying power. and Steyer is self-funding, so that's helpful, too.

Edited by Mystery Achiever
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4 hours ago, krista4 said:

My brother just started a Democratic Presidential Fantasy League today, and I have pick #2 in the draft.  Rules and points are a little sketchy at the moment, but right now I know you accumulate points each Sunday that your candidates are still in the race.   Pick #1 was Warren.  Think I'm going with my heart on pick #2:  👻ttigieg!

In looking at the list of the 18 that remain, I realized I'd never even heard of two of them.  Joe Stesak?  Wayne Messam?

I'm interested in the full scoring system. I wonder how difficult it is to win without having the eventual nominee.

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1 hour ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I'm interested in the full scoring system. I wonder how difficult it is to win without having the eventual nominee.

Maybe inject some provisions for super delegates.

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4 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I'm interested in the full scoring system. I wonder how difficult it is to win without having the eventual nominee.

I think not that unlikely if we get to a fatguy-approved contested convention.

I'd love to be able to post the full scoring, but it seems to be a bit...errrr, loose...at the moment.  The only firm rule is 10 points per candidate who is still in the race on each Sunday.  We're currently discussing some scoring to add for the November debates, so I'd love any ideas.  Speaking time was nixed for reasons I can't recall, and raising your hand was nixed on the basis that Bernie has his hand raised at all times.  I also suggested interruptions (as interruptee or interruptor), but that wasn't accepted either.  There's a possibility of gaining points for "audience applause after an answer."

It's weird that the rules wouldn't be set, not because they should be but because my brother and I are both highly competitive.  But we're being mellow-ish.  I did notice that he and I were the only ones drafting strategically, though.  Like Mystery Achiever said, I got Steyer for the fact he's a privileged white dude with billions, and Tulsi since she'll continue to be funded by the Russians.  I kid!  Meanwhile my Mom drafted based on whom she liked and then at the end took Bullock because she had a team filled with people with "B" initials, and my SIL had a NFWG* system.

Speaking of teams, I need a team name that would encapsulate my Pete/Harris/Steyer/Tulsi vibe.

*No ####### white guys.  (Apologies to ####### white guys everywhere; it's not my team.)

 

Edited by krista4

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7 hours ago, krista4 said:

Thanks for the info.

With the second pick, I ended up with what I think is a good team:  Mayor Pete, Harris, Steyer, and Tulsi.  Only four teams drafting.  Williamson and Seastack or whatever it was were left undrafted and are available on waivers.

Can you stash Williamson on IR?

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1 minute ago, Dickies said:

Can you stash Williamson on IR?

Waivers are FCFS if you want to replace someone before they have officially dropped out.  Do you think there’s anyone on my roster I should drop for her?

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Just now, krista4 said:

Waivers are FCFS if you want to replace someone before they have officially dropped out.  Do you think there’s anyone on my roster I should drop for her?

I’d drop any of them for Williamson

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:

I need a team name that would encapsulate my Pete/Harris/Steyer/Tulsi vibe.

"4 of the 7.7 billion more capable"

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:

I think not that unlikely if we get to a fatguy-approved contested convention.

I'd love to be able to post the full scoring, but it seems to be a bit...errrr, loose...at the moment.  The only firm rule is 10 points per candidate who is still in the race on each Sunday.  We're currently discussing some scoring to add for the November debates, so I'd love any ideas.  Speaking time was nixed for reasons I can't recall, and raising your hand was nixed on the basis that Bernie has his hand raised at all times.  I also suggested interruptions (as interruptee or interruptor), but that wasn't accepted either.  There's a possibility of gaining points for "audience applause after an answer."

It's weird that the rules wouldn't be set, not because they should be but because my brother and I are both highly competitive.  But we're being mellow-ish.  I did notice that he and I were the only ones drafting strategically, though.  Like Mystery Achiever said, I got Steyer for the fact he's a privileged white dude with billions, and Tulsi since she'll continue to be funded by the Russians.  I kid!  Meanwhile my Mom drafted based on whom she liked and then at the end took Bullock because she had a team filled with people with "B" initials, and my SIL had a NFWG* system.

Speaking of teams, I need a team name that would encapsulate my Pete/Harris/Steyer/Tulsi vibe.

*No ####### white guys.  (Apologies to ####### white guys everywhere; it's not my team.)

 

Points for each state you win, or come in second or third? 

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1 hour ago, krista4 said:
1 hour ago, Dickies said:

Can you stash Williamson on IR?

Waivers are FCFS if you want to replace someone before they have officially dropped out.  Do you think there’s anyone on my roster I should drop for her?

I wouldn't drop anyone right away. Couldn't you just wait until you hear rumblings about one of your candidates dropping out, and then immediately drop him/her for Williamson?

Who hosts the site? MyPoliticalLeague.com?

The nice thing about Williamson is that she's a guaranteed 10 points every week because she'll never drop out. There's a good chance that she'll stay in the race through at least 2024.

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4 hours ago, krista4 said:

Waivers are FCFS if you want to replace someone before they have officially dropped out.  Do you think there’s anyone on my roster I should drop for her?

Thank you for posting, but you’ll probably have more luck with this question in the assistant coach thread.

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6 hours ago, krista4 said:

Speaking of teams, I need a team name that would encapsulate my Pete/Harris/Steyer/Tulsi vibe.

*No ####### white guys.  (Apologies to ####### white guys everywhere; it's not my team.)

 

:oldunsure: 

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14 hours ago, krista4 said:

Thanks for the info.

With the second pick, I ended up with what I think is a good team:  Mayor Pete, Harris, Steyer, and Tulsi.  Only four teams drafting.  Williamson and Seastack or whatever it was were left undrafted and are available on waivers.

Tulsi is a great value pick.  She's never dropping out.

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7 hours ago, krista4 said:

Speaking of teams, I need a team name that would encapsulate my Pete/Harris/Steyer/Tulsi vibe.

2020 Vision -  is too bland

Go West, young man - All west coast candidates, except the young man

Rainbow Coalition (Ties in Pete, Harris as a woman of color, and Tulsi where UofH are the Rainbow Warriors)

 

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1 hour ago, AAABatteries said:

:oldunsure: 

RIF 

Its the name of her SIL's team...

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

RIF 

Its the name of her SIL's team...

I realized after I posted - then was too lazy to edit it.  Question is did the SIL go for the play on words?

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Just now, AAABatteries said:

I realized after I posted - then was too lazy to edit it.  Question is did the SIL go for the play on words?

I am guessing yes.

Mom probably got Bernie, Biden, Beto, and Bullock

Krista has Pete, Harris, Steyer, Tulsi

That leaves Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Castro, Booker (could have been a mom pick) to choose from - and still had Williamson and Messam on waivers

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14 hours ago, krista4 said:

Williamson and Seastack or whatever it was were left undrafted and are available on waivers.

File under: Sentences that no one could have predicted would ever be uttered, penned, or typed. 

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49 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I am guessing yes.

Mom probably got Bernie, Biden, Beto, and Bullock

Krista has Pete, Harris, Steyer, Tulsi

That leaves Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Castro, Booker (could have been a mom pick) to choose from - and still had Williamson and Messam on waivers

The Killers B's

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Pre-Draft Rankings - based on staying power, and potential to win delegates

Tier 1

Warren - has money, momentum and a broad base of support - she will be there until the convention

Tier 1b

Sanders - has money and incentive to stay in the race until the convention.  Only issue is health, which could force him to the sidelines prematurely, has loyal, but shrinking base

Tier 2

Biden - Pseudo Front-Runner, but struggling with financial support - does represent the moderate wing of the party, but will drop out if he loses that title

Buttigieg - has money, and is competing with Biden for the moderate wing.  One will likely make it all the way, one will likely drop out along the way.

Tier 3

Yang - Yang is not a real contender, but he is kind of wafting along - not taking in much money, not spending much money, no incentive to get out of the race.

Harris - Harris probably had as much upside as anyone when the process started in early 2019, but she just has not been able to build on that.  I think she has a little bit more staying power than Klobuchar and Booker because her early strategy seemed to rely on a good showing on Super Tuesday, while Klobuchar and Booker may drop out before that.

Klobuchar - Of the moderate sitting Senators, she has momentum, but she is living on the edge where she has to keep up the good performances, one slip and she is back to irrelevance.  A likely poor showing in Iowa though could doom her campaign.

Booker - Booker is already begging for money.  He will survive a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, but a poor showing in Nevada and South Carolina will be the end of the road for him.

Tier 4

Gabbard - no chance of winning any delegates, but stubborn enough to stay in the race anyway

Steyer - obviously has the money to go the duration - but from a practical issue he is an impeachment guy - once Trump is impeached, I think he loses incentive to stay - could be out before Iowa.

 

Tier 5

Castro - I have no idea what his strategy is in this race, but I think he will struggle to make it to Super Tuesday

O'Rourke - At some point the party has to end.  He is running on being a guy who was competitive in Texas.  He'll be out after Nevada - which will follow very poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire.  (He could drop out sooner if he fails to make the November debate...)

Tier 6  - Entire Tier in danger of dropping out any day

Bennet

Bullock

Delaney

Sestak

Messam

Tier 7 - infinity and beyond

Williamson - she could be in the race until 2022, but she won't get any delegates.

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Current Predictit rankings:

Warren - $0.38

Biden - $0.22

Buttigieg - $0.16

Sanders - $0.12

Clinton - $0.09

Yang - $0.08

Harris - $0.04

Bloomberg - $0.03

Klobuchar - $0.02

Gabbard - $0.02

Bullock  - $0.02

 

Everyone else - $0.01

 

ETA - Buttigieg went from $0.15 to $0.16 as I typed this

Edited by Sinn Fein
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Castro is making pleas for money and still needs all four polls for the November debate. If he can't get in I could see him dropping out.
Also, is it a good thing that I figured out what NFWGs was with out the translations? :oldunsure:

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27 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Castro is making pleas for money and still needs all four polls for the November debate. If he can't get in I could see him dropping out.
Also, is it a good thing that I figured out what NFWGs was with out the translations? :oldunsure:

reminds me of a professor in a finance class.  We were talking about ROIs, and specifically project-based ROIs - and he showed a spreadsheet where the calculations showed a negative ROI on a given project, and he said, when that happens he stamps "NFW" across the top.

The class sees it up on the projector and snickers, and without missing a beat, the professor continued... "Not Financially Worthwhile"

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So much to catch up on!  Love the power rankings and team names.  I’ll respond this evening.

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

 he stamps "NFW" across the top.

The class sees it up on the projector and snickers, and without missing a beat, the professor continued... "Not Financially Worthwhile"

:lol:  Honestly, I probably got there because, as an American Idol watcher, I was already familiar with "WGWG".  :bag:

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20 hours ago, timschochet said:

Points for each state you win, or come in second or third? 

I like this idea.  Will pose it to the commish.

20 hours ago, [scooter] said:

I wouldn't drop anyone right away. Couldn't you just wait until you hear rumblings about one of your candidates dropping out, and then immediately drop him/her for Williamson?

Who hosts the site? MyPoliticalLeague.com?

The nice thing about Williamson is that she's a guaranteed 10 points every week because she'll never drop out. There's a good chance that she'll stay in the race through at least 2024.

:lmao:  And yes, I'll keep my ear to the ground (i.e., religiously read the PSF) to hear any rumblings and swoop in for her if need be.

14 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

2020 Vision -  is too bland

Go West, young man - All west coast candidates, except the young man

Rainbow Coalition (Ties in Pete, Harris as a woman of color, and Tulsi where UofH are the Rainbow Warriors)

 

I think a play on your last suggestion might win, but using Rainbow Connection instead because 3/4 of the participants are big Muppets fans.

13 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I am guessing yes.

Mom probably got Bernie, Biden, Beto, and Bullock

Krista has Pete, Harris, Steyer, Tulsi

That leaves Warren, Klobuchar, Yang, Castro, Booker (could have been a mom pick) to choose from - and still had Williamson and Messam on waivers

SIL - pick #1 - Warren, Klobuchar, Castro, Messam

Me - pick #2 - Pete, Harris, Steyer, Tulsi

Mom - pick #3 - Grandpa Joe, Booker ("because I like him"), Beto ("because I kind of feel sorry for him"), Bullock ("because now I'm just going alphabetically")

Brother - pick #4 - Bernie, Yang, Delaney, Bennet

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12 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Castro is making pleas for money and still needs all four polls for the November debate. If he can't get in I could see him dropping out.
Also, is it a good thing that I figured out what NFWGs was with out the translations? :oldunsure:

:lol:  Neither my Mom nor I could guess it!  We went to the "usual" use of NFW and then couldn't figure out the "G."

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13 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Pre-Draft Rankings - based on staying power, and potential to win delegates

 

Super analysis.  :thumbup: 

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11 hours ago, krista4 said:
On 10/28/2019 at 1:41 AM, timschochet said:

Points for each state you win, or come in second or third? 

I like this idea.  Will pose it to the commish.

FWIW, I think that changes appropriate strategy after the fact. Who will stay in and who has a chance at delegates are different buckets. Ironically, many low-polling candidates could outlast the middle tier because their decision to drop out is probably less tied to fundraising and even polling. The focus on people staying in gives you more viable players. Like when PPR was added to FF. :)

Edited by Mystery Achiever

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50 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

FWIW, I think that changes appropriate strategy after the fact. Who will stay in and who has a chance at delegates are different buckets. Ironically, many low-polling candidates could outlast the middle tier because their decision to drop out is probably less tied to fundraising and even polling. The focus on people staying in gives you more viable players. Like when PPR was added to FF. :)

No doubt the addition of any new scoring rules would change what the drafting strategy would have been.  I’m just trying not to take it too seriously.  There isn’t even a trophy involved!  :kicksrock:

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New Hampshire Polling:

Sanders - 21%
Warren - 18%
Biden - 15%
Buttigieg - 10%

Gabbard, Klobuchar, Yang - 5%

Steyer, Harris - 3%

Booker, O'Rourke - 2%

Sestak - 1%

 

I think Buttigieg qualifies for the December debate with this poll (Sanders, Warren and Biden had already qualified)

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I know Biden continues to lead the national polling, and has a firewall, of sorts set for South Carolina and the southern states on Super Tuesday.

 

But, its not unrealistic that he finishes 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire - and then his whole "electability" argument really goes out the window - and if he continues to run cold in those states for the next couple of months - I think fund raising will be a real concern.

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https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/29/5-things-other-politicians-can-learn-from-andrew-yangs-campaign/

5 Things Other Politicians Can Learn From Andrew Yang’s Campaign

Andrew Yang's campaign has been relatively successful given his limited political experience. Here are five things Democrats can learn from Yang's campaign

1. Discuss Subjects Other Than Politics

Yang’s Twitter feed and interviews are very telling of his likes and dislikes. He’s a long-time New York Knicks fan and avid NBA supporter. He tweets his NBA predictions and claims life is better when the NBA is on.

2. Do Not Succumb to Identity Politics

As Democrats nationally have pushed for identity politics to define our perceptions, Yang has not fallen prey to this trend.

“I understand the impulse, but identity politics are a great way to lose elections. We need to bring people together. I believe we can get more done for different kinds of people by emphasizing what we share in common rather than what distinguishes us from each other,” Yang said.

3. Be Comfortable And Relatable

Remember when Sen. Elizabeth Warren tried to drink a beer on camera to project her coolness to voters? It’s hard to forget such a cringe-worthy moment on the 2020 trail.

Instead of being as uncomfortable and unrelatable as Warren, Yang is a much more natural figure to watch on camera. Whether he’s skateboarding through an event or hugging a cardboard cutout of himself, Yang is a relatable figure to watch.

4. Provide a Grassroots Community For Supporters

Whether it be the “MATH” T-shirts, #YangGang signs, or the blue baseball cap emoji in his Twitter bio, Yang is not just running a campaign, he is fostering a passionate community of supporters.

Does this sound familiar? Think red hats and “MAGA” flags. Yang has simply mimicked the grassroots nature of the Trump campaign.

Young voters are no longer interested in nitty-gritty policy details, but in identifying with a political group and fostering a community. Whether you consider this good or bad, it was a winning campaign strategy for Trump and has helped Yang to garner a larger following than some established Democratic candidates.

5. Don’t Be Afraid to Talk to the Other Side

Yang has a far-left agenda, there is no disputing that. He is in favor of overhauling the economy in the name of climate change, he’s in favor of “Medicare for All” plans to socialize medicine, and wants to create a Universal Basic Income welfare handout to everyone through a value-added tax that has failed in European nations.

Despite his far-left agenda with a record of failure, Yang has been one of the few Democratic candidates bold enough to discuss his policy ideas with conservative leaders. Yang has appeared on the Ben Shapiro Show, the Rubin Report, the Joe Rogan Experience, and countless others.

TL;DR: Yang is the man. 

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3 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I know Biden continues to lead the national polling, and has a firewall, of sorts set for South Carolina and the southern states on Super Tuesday.

 

But, its not unrealistic that he finishes 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire - and then his whole "electability" argument really goes out the window - and if he continues to run cold in those states for the next couple of months - I think fund raising will be a real concern.

who is Thing2 for the SuperDelegates (controlled by teachers & unions & Hillary) in the event of a Biden collapse? pretty sure that's why Peteyjudge ran for DNC Chair in '17, but i dont know if he made more friends or enemies in his bid.

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47 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

who is Thing2 for the SuperDelegates (controlled by teachers & unions & Hillary) in the event of a Biden collapse? pretty sure that's why Peteyjudge ran for DNC Chair in '17, but i dont know if he made more friends or enemies in his bid.

I would guess more friends - he dropped out early enough, and he has seemed to have kept favor with establishment Dem fundraisers 

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Not sure when Peter Daou became a scorched earth supreme being, but I’m extremely here for it:

@peterdaou

HARSH TRUTH:

The entire Dem establishment played a role in allowing the far right to ascend to the pinnacle of power. To overrun the judiciary. To shred our rights and values.

That includes the Clintons, Obamas, Biden, Pelosi, Schumer, Hoyer, etc.

The party needs an overhaul.

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