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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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15 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

I know there's a little time  left, but is looking like we may stick at nine for next debate?

eta Gabbard is in, so ten. 

Also, Klobuchar made December. 

The percentage requirements are too low. We should be down to 5 or 6 at this point. 

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On 11/5/2019 at 8:11 AM, wikkidpissah said:

i don't see all that much difference between Warren & Buttigieg 

Here are the two main differences IMO: 

1. Warren can win the nomination; Pete probably can’t. 

2. If nominated, Pete can win the election; Warren probably can’t. 

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

The percentage requirements are too low. We should be down to 5 or 6 at this point. 

The move to 4% for December could help.5% would be better.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

The percentage requirements are too low. We should be down to 5 or 6 at this point. 

Realistically - we are.

Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg

Then room for 1-2 from:

Harris, Klobuchar, Booker - but its up to them to make that jump.  Dems can't wait forever.

 

Yang is not a serious contender.  Castro is close to being done.  Gabbard and Steyer are not contenders.

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Just now, Sinn Fein said:

Realistically - we are.

Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg

Then room for 1-2 from:

Harris, Klobuchar, Booker - but its up to them to make that jump.  Dems can't wait forever.

 

Yang is not a serious contender.  Castro is close to being done.  Gabbard and Steyer are not contenders.

I meant the debates. If only 5 or 6 are realistic then those are the folks who should be up there. Why waste time? 

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7 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I meant the debates. If only 5 or 6 are realistic then those are the folks who should be up there. Why waste time? 

I tend to agree - but the flip side is the top-4 candidates will get the most time, despite the ground rules.

I also think that while some are not serious candidates, they still represent serious issues that deserve their time.  

Yang - Automation, Universal Income

Gabbard - Anti-War

Steyer - Impeachment, Climate Change

Harris - Minority Woman perspective

Klobuchar - Midwesterner who has won in areas the Dems need to take back

Booker - He's just there because he wants everyone to get along.  And, he's a good orator.

 

Those first 3 - have no shot at the nomination, but are worth hearing from.

The bottom 3 could win the nomination, but their time to join the race is running out - this may be the Last Chance Saloon.  I say we hear them out.

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

Here are the two main differences IMO: 

1. Warren can win the nomination; Pete probably can’t. 

2. If nominated, Pete can win the election; Warren probably can’t. 

Both will win the general handily. You've been marketed fear because there's fear from last time to market. Hillary was the repulsive one last time, energizing her enemies and discouraging her base. There will be only one candidate wearing that hat next time and it says MAGA.

Warren stands a biglier chance of shooting herself in the foot because there's a nerd gap between her personality & her persona that i saw embarrassingly exposed in her '12 Senate campaign, but there's more room to play w than you think.

As far as you telling me what will happen, twice i've offered you Pete str8up against any candidate of your choice  (once six months ago when he was yet a 5%er) and twice you've clumsily declined. Now he's pulled even w the field. Who should be telling who what?!

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On 11/5/2019 at 5:15 AM, joffer said:
On 11/1/2019 at 7:49 AM, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

If we can have the 99% united against the 1%, that's much closer to united than we have now.

like 20% think they are in the 1%

I think 12% are, have been, or will be in the top 1% of income earners.

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2 hours ago, wikkidpissah said:

Both will win the general handily. You've been marketed fear because there's fear from last time to market. Hillary was the repulsive one last time, energizing her enemies and discouraging her base. There will be only one candidate wearing that hat next time and it says MAGA.

Warren stands a biglier chance of shooting herself in the foot because there's a nerd gap between her personality & her persona that i saw embarrassingly exposed in her '12 Senate campaign, but there's more room to play w than you think.

As far as you telling me what will happen, twice i've offered you Pete str8up against any candidate of your choice  (once six months ago when he was yet a 5%er) and twice you've clumsily declined. Now he's pulled even w the field. Who should be telling who what?!

I don’t bet on politics anymore. Not sure why that’s clumsy. But in any event I couldn’t take your bet because my choice is...Pete. He’s the guy I want. 

As for the rest of your post, it’s not fear it’s reality. This election will come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. You’re talking about union workers, mostly white. They don’t want Medicare for All. They like Obamacare. If it’s Warren or Bernie  I believe  they will stick with Trump. Otherwise not. It’s really that simple. 

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4 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I don’t bet on politics anymore. Not sure why that’s clumsy. But in any event I couldn’t take your bet because my choice is...Pete. He’s the guy I want. 

As for the rest of your post, it’s not fear it’s reality. This election will come down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. You’re talking about union workers, mostly white. They don’t want Medicare for All. They like Obamacare. If it’s Warren or Bernie  I believe  they will stick with Trump. Otherwise not. It’s really that simple. 

i know the screed - it's shouted at us by no-account influencers every twelve seconds. yeah, that's neither fear nor marketing....

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Bloomberg is making overtures towards running - filing to be on the ballot in Alabama...

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Just came to post about Bloomberg as well. Supposedly thinking of running as a Dem.

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24 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Bloomberg is making overtures towards running - filing to be on the ballot in Alabama...

Better him than Warren or Sanders, but my guess is that he's a nonfactor.

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8 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Just came to post about Bloomberg as well. Supposedly thinking of running as a Dem.

He originally said said he would only consider a run as a Dem, acknowledging that a 3rd party run would help Trump. Assume that is still the case.

Edited by Mystery Achiever

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Better him than Warren or Sanders, but my guess is that he's a nonfactor.

He can be a factor in helping them, because I think he would pull votes from the moderates.

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1 minute ago, The General said:

Bloomberg checks a lot of boxes. 

77 - Check

Male - Check

White - Check

Load of Money - Check

 

 

Lets let him in boys, he'll be perfect....

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"But in a statement Thursday, his political adviser, Howard Wolfson, said Bloomberg is worried that the current crop of Democratic presidential candidates is “not well positioned” to defeat President Donald Trump."

 

Alabama filing date is tomorrow, which explains the timing. So, he may not be seriously thinking about it, but making sure he can if he wants to

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21 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

77 - Check

Male - Check

White - Check

Load of Money - Check

Lets let him in boys, he'll be perfect....

Yup. Like it or not those are the boxes.

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From Nate Silver -

Quite a few D primary polls included Bloomberg earlier in the year and he generally polled in the low single digits, around 2 or 3%. I'm not sure there's any particular reason to think he'd do better now. So while it's fun to speculate what the effects will be (hurts Biden because he's a moderate? hurts Bernie/Warren because he'll attack them? hurts Mayor Pete because he'll steal his fundraising base?) the default assumption should probably be that there won't be much effect.

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My thoughts are Bloomberg would appeal to people who are all in on Biden (because he’s safe) but nervous about Biden being able to put a sentence together.

He hasn’t been raked over the coals but much more appealing to the “moderate, don’t closely follow politics” type voter than Warren or Sanders.

 

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1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Better him than Warren or Sanders, but my guess is that he's a nonfactor.

I haven't been excited about the field, mostly because it's winnowing in a way I dislike. But I'm not seeing what Bloomberg has to offer here. 

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"Bloomberg is a billionaire businessman so he can't be bought! He'll run the country like a business!" Trump voters should agree, right?

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50 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

I believe mayors of NYC are our greatest hope for the future!

At least he's not fruit loops like Giuliani.

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9 minutes ago, phandango said:

"Bloomberg is a billionaire businessman so he can't be bought! He'll run the country like a business!" Trump voters should agree, right?

only difference being he’s actually a billionaire

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1 hour ago, The General said:

My thoughts are Bloomberg would appeal to people who are all in on Biden (because he’s safe) but nervous about Biden being able to put a sentence together.

He hasn’t been raked over the coals but much more appealing to the “moderate, don’t closely follow politics” type voter than Warren or Sanders.

 

I think so too - but he is still 77.

I'm an ageist.  Thats too old to trust the country to for the next 4 years.  Sorry.

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6 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I think so too - but he is still 77.

I'm an ageist.  Thats too old to trust the country to for the next 4 years.  Sorry.

That is a concern. I tend to agree in but in the limited times I’ve heard him speak I didn’t get old man vibe from him.

I’d like to see him on the stage during one of these debates or start making the rounds and talking shop.

I do love the idea of the guy who could buy Trump out 30 times over up on stage against him. That would be in his head so bad.

Edited by The General
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57 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I think so too - but he is still 77.

I'm an ageist.  Thats too old to trust the country to for the next 4 years.  Sorry.

77 is the new 60.

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2 hours ago, The General said:

My thoughts are Bloomberg would appeal to people who are all in on Biden (because he’s safe) but nervous about Biden being able to put a sentence together.

He hasn’t been raked over the coals but much more appealing to the “moderate, don’t closely follow politics” type voter than Warren or Sanders.

I think he's entering because of Biden's free fall, lack of confidence Buttigieg/Klobuchar can win the nominee, and fear of Trump v. Warren/Sanders because they are too far left for the swing states Democrats need. 

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2 hours ago, wikkidpissah said:

I believe mayors of NYC are our greatest hope for the future!

Right?  Who cares. Get him out of here.  The boxes he checks aren’t boxes I wish to see checked.

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14 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I think he's entering because of Biden's free fall, lack of confidence Buttigieg/Klobuchar can win the nominee, and fear of Trump v. Warren/Sanders because they are too far left for the swing states Democrats need. 

I get the concern, I just don't think he addresses any of those shortcomings either. What is he bringing to the table besides money?

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1 hour ago, Gr00vus said:

I get the concern, I just don't think he addresses any of those shortcomings either. What is he bringing to the table besides money?

Let’s see if he can put a sentence together without bumbling. Love you, Joe but JFC you can barely speak at times.

Let’s see if he has some plans that don’t involve removing all private insurance in 10 years. That is extreme coming from a liberal dude in Seattle. Sorry but it is.

Why Dems would want to shut anyone out of this process is dumb. If he runs (he’s probably not) let him on stage and see if he’s any good. 

He puts out a good magazine. He’d no doubt be deep, deep inside Trump’s head, he’s been good in interviews I’ve seen him in. Let’s hear him talk. 

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2 hours ago, krista4 said:

Right?  Who cares. Get him out of here.  The boxes he checks aren’t boxes I wish to see checked.

Are you familiar with his policies or you don’t like the boxes he checks?

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4 hours ago, The General said:

Are you familiar with his policies or you don’t like the boxes he checks?

Really?

ETA:  the two go together

Edited by krista4

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2 hours ago, krista4 said:

Really?

ETA:  the two go together

I'm not super familiar with him. From what I have read though he's really good on the environment, many social issues, for stricter gun control, did a good job running NYC, has donated billions, knows Trump winning again is dangerous.

Seems like a pretty decent start.

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2 hours ago, The General said:

I'm not super familiar with him. From what I have read though he's really good on the environment, many social issues, for stricter gun control, did a good job running NYC, has donated billions, knows Trump winning again is dangerous.

I'd suggest reading the Bloomberg 2020 thread where  a couple of locals share their views. 
But, as I said in that thread, it's not clear that he's moved forward in his thoughts about running. It was reported that he'll only jump in if Biden leaves the race. Given that Alabama's filing deadline is today, he must file or lose the opportunity to run there.

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LOL: “Bloomberg is going to be an unstoppable juggernaut, combining the billionaire business know-how of Tom Steyer with the practical New York mayoral experience of Bill de Blasio.” — Will Stancil

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Now Bloomberg is gearing up for Super Tuesday eschewing the first 4 states.

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I can't see this ending well:

Matt Viser @mviser

Hillary Clinton’s fielded calls in recent days about whether to get into the race. While it is still highly unlikely that she’ll run, some allies have gone so far as to talk about a potential pathway bypassing Iowa and NH and focus on making a stand in SC

 

 

 

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You woo me with those dreamy Buttigieg numbers and then wake me up to this nightmare?

Bloomberg and Hillary. No better way to drain enthusiasm from the process. 

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New Quinnipiac NEW HAMPSHIRE poll 


Biden 20%
Warren 16%
Buttigieg 15%
Sanders 14%
Gabbard 6%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%

 

:coffee:

 

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I'm sure the Gabbard number will be as interesting as the Buttisurge - but I think Nate nails this:

 

Nate Silver@NateSilver538 · 37m

Lest you make the mistake that Tulsi Gabbard's support is coming from the left, almost all of her support in the Q-Pac poll of NH is from voters who describe themselves as conservative or moderate. And almost all from independents and not Democrats. https://bit.ly/36SK2PT

 

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