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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (4 Viewers)

I'm sure the Gabbard number will be as interesting as the Buttisurge - but I think Nate nails this:

Nate Silver@NateSilver538 · 37m

Lest you make the mistake that Tulsi Gabbard's support is coming from the left, almost all of her support in the Q-Pac poll of NH is from voters who describe themselves as conservative or moderate. And almost all from independents and not Democrats. https://bit.ly/36SK2PT

 
But - Buttigieg at 15% is a great number for him - considering he is in the same range as two sitting senators from neighboring states, and not far off a former Vice President.

The trick now will be to see if Buttigieg can continue to build momentum over the next 3 months.  He has reached the point where I don't think that Warren, Biden and Sanders (and their surrogates) can ignore him - they will have to start chipping away at Buttigieg's armor.  So, we will see how he holds up to tighter scrutiny.

 
I think this is down to a 3 person race at this point - Biden, Warren and Buttigieg.  It's hard to see a path to the nomination for anyone else.

No offense to Bernie supporters but I just don't see a path for him.   He came into the campaign as one of the two most well known candidates and his poll numbers have been stagnant the whole way.  At this point, for a candidate to move up in the polling they need to surprise voters either with policies or charisma.  Bernie's not going to surprise anybody.  Everybody already knows who he is and what his policies are by now.

If Bloomberg enters the race it helps Warren.  He'll pull some support from Biden and Buttigieg.  Not many Warren supporters will jump to Bloomberg.

Eric Holder entering the race could make things more interesting.

 
Jonathan Martin@jmartNYT·3m

NEWS:

@DevalPatrick is considering a last-minute entry into the presidential race And his Mass allies are already putting out feelers in early states. Decision imminent: NH filing deadline is Friday

 
It's another holiday Caravan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
What is going on? Why all these potential late entries? 

https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/11/deval-patrick-democratic-primary-2020-069535

This all makes me want to curl up in a ball and go to a happy place in my head. The Dems are going to screw this up, aren't they? Why turn this primary into a circus like this and thin out the field so much (as if it wasn't big enough)? You have a top 4 who provide a nice mix of varying viewpoints across the liberal/progressive spectrum for the people to choose from. 

 
Marauder said:
If Bloomberg enters the race it helps Warren.  He'll pull some support from Biden and Buttigieg.  Not many Warren supporters will jump to Bloomberg.

Eric Holder entering the race could make things more interesting.
Click to expand...
I don't think Bloomberg has a chance to get the nomination but he could probably shake things up a bit due to his massive wealth.  I don't see Holder or Deval Patrick making any sort of real impact on the race if they were to jump in.  

 
Sinn Fein said:
I am not sure anyone really thought he was running - but Mark Sanford has dropped out of the Republican race...
Click to expand...
I follow him because his father Terry's heart attack in my home town while on the presidential campaign trail in '76, and my reporting on same, was what got me the national press credential which allowed me on the press train (as interesting and almost as debauched as a rock&roll tour) for the remainder of the season. The younger Sanford would like revenge on the President for making fun of his "Appalachian" escapades, but i bet the king's men showed him a much larger dossier on the scandal once he announced, cuz he did nothing but wait til everyone forgot him

 
Code: 
RCP polling averages, early states
Iowa:
Warren 20.0
Buttigieg 19.7
Biden 17.0
Sanders 16.3

New Hampshire:
Biden 19.7
Warren 19.7
Sanders 19.0
Buttigieg 11.3

Nevada:
Biden 26.0
Warren 19.5
Sanders 18.5
Buttigieg 4.5

South Carolina:
Biden 35.0
Warren 15.5
Sanders 12.8
Buttigieg 4.0

 
I am not concerned about Nevada or South Carolina.  I don't think anyone is actively campaigning in either state yet - yes there have been campaign stops by all the major candidates, but not like the campaigning in Iowa in particular, and New Hampshire.

I think those polls will be shaped by the results from Iowa and New Hampshire - and the field will have narrowed quite substantially before caucuses in Nevada or votes in South Carolina.

 
caustic said:
Code: 
RCP polling averages, early states
Iowa:
Warren 20.0
Buttigieg 19.7
Biden 17.0
Sanders 16.3

New Hampshire:
Biden 19.7
Warren 19.7
Sanders 19.0
Buttigieg 11.3

Nevada:
Biden 26.0
Warren 19.5
Sanders 18.5
Buttigieg 4.5

South Carolina:
Biden 35.0
Warren 15.5
Sanders 12.8
Buttigieg 4.0
Click to expand...
The lack of African American support is still a huge issue for Buttigieg.   I'm not sure how he's going to overcome that.

 
I will say this - there is a better than 50-50 chance that if the next debate were held in the PSF - all of the candidates will end up suspended.

I think the knives will be out, the elbows sharpened, and it will be a no-holds barred free for all.

 
Marauder said:
The lack of African American support is still a huge issue for Buttigieg.   I'm not sure how he's going to overcome that.
Click to expand...
Honestly - the same way he overcame zero name-recognition 9 months ago.

I trust that he, and his team, will be working very hard to get his message out.  Its not an overnight process though - it will take time and work.  And, I think the first part of the equation was similar to Obama - Pete had to first show he could win the white vote, before anyone else was going to waste time and figure out if he is the right candidate for them.

 
Sinn Fein said:
Honestly - the same way he overcame zero name-recognition 9 months ago.

I trust that he, and his team, will be working very hard to get his message out.  Its not an overnight process though - it will take time and work.  
Click to expand...
Didn't work in South Bend.  

 
Sinn Fein said:
Jonathan Martin@jmartNYT·3m

NEWS:

@DevalPatrick is considering a last-minute entry into the presidential race And his Mass allies are already putting out feelers in early states. Decision imminent: NH filing deadline is Friday
Click to expand...
Didn't he cash in on the backs of a bunch of foreclosures or something like that?

 
ren hoek said:
Didn't work in South Bend.  
Click to expand...
:shrug:

He won re-election.  He was primaried in 2015 by an African-American opponent - and Buttigieg won all 6 districts in South Bend including 2 that have an African-American majority.

Buttigieg will never please all the people, in all the groups.  But he can reach out and gain support from some people across most of the groups.

 
Sinn Fein said:
:shrug:

He won re-election.  He was primaried in 2015 by an African-American opponent - and Buttigieg won all 6 districts in South Bend including 2 that have an African-American majority.

Buttigieg will never please all the people, in all the groups.  But he can reach out and gain support from some people across most of the groups.
Click to expand...
Much of Buttigieg's problem with courting African American voters is chalked up to being gay.  Maybe there's something to that, I don't know.  But I don't think it's fair to those voters to suggest their position isn't also motivated by problems with racism in his mayoral district.  Reporting that police chiefs used his donors to get him to fire a black police chief, his firing of employees involved with the tapes, his aversion to even knowing what was said on the tapes, those things raise questions and need to be unpacked. 

It's possible the reason he doesn't poll well with blacks isn't homophobia, but because they see South Bend as a microcosm for how he would deal with racial issues.  Kamala Harris' polling numbers tanked with African Americans after Gabbard exposed her criminal justice record on national television.  It stands to reason that Buttigieg isn't connecting with AA voters because racism is still a big problem in his hometown 7 years into his mayorship, not lack of outreach.  

 
November Pete vs. February Pete

From "Medicare for All [single payer] is the best framework" and not "leaving Americans to the tender mercies of corporations," to "not thinking those positions [single payer] are right".  This seems like a flipflop- has his position changed since meeting with donors?  

 
Buttigieg has been consistent on healthcare policy since I've been following him. He's against Medicare for All, where M4A means prohibiting private insurance. He's in favor of Medicare for All (Who Want It), where M4A means a public option. ("M4A" is deliberately vague enough to cover both situations.) He believes that most people will ultimately prefer the public option over private insurance, which will therefore eventually lead to a single-payer system, or something close to it.

 
ren hoek said:
Much of Buttigieg's problem with courting African American voters is chalked up to being gay.  Maybe there's something to that, I don't know.  But I don't think it's fair to those voters to suggest their position isn't also motivated by problems with racism in his mayoral district.  Reporting that police chiefs used his donors to get him to fire a black police chief, his firing of employees involved with the tapes, his aversion to even knowing what was said on the tapes, those things raise questions and need to be unpacked. 

It's possible the reason he doesn't poll well with blacks isn't homophobia, but because they see South Bend as a microcosm for how he would deal with racial issues.  Kamala Harris' polling numbers tanked with African Americans after Gabbard exposed her criminal justice record on national television.  It stands to reason that Buttigieg isn't connecting with AA voters because racism is still a big problem in his hometown 7 years into his mayorship, not lack of outreach.  
Click to expand...
There are lots of us -- me included -- who are more likely to support Buttigieg precisely because he doesn't get into identity politics.  Neither does Biden, who polls very well among black voters.

 
IvanKaramazov said:
There are lots of us -- me included -- who are more likely to support Buttigieg precisely because he doesn't get into identity politics.  Neither does Biden, who polls very well among black voters.
Click to expand...
That's fine- I still think it's a valid explanation for why he polls poorly with AA voters.  The criminal justice system isn't identity politics to them.  They probably wouldn't reduce systemic racism in South Bend down to identity politics either.  

 
The election is fifty-one weeks from tonight. I think on Tuesdays from here on out, I will stop and ponder what that night is going to be like. 

I don't have the words for it. 

 
Come on, you guys really didn’t think she would sit this one out did you? 

Hillary Clinton on Tuesday declined to rule out launching a future presidential campaign after her two failed bids, saying “many, many, many people” were pressuring her to enter the race. 

“I, as I say, never, never, never say never,” the former secretary of State said on BBC Radio 5 Live. “I will certainly tell you, I’m under enormous pressure from many, many, many people to think about it.”
Click to expand...
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/12/hillary-clinton-presidential-run-2020-070318

 
Tolstoy said:
https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-trump-faces-tough-election-fight-georgia/gqTRms8eLIL1TEFW2r8pKN/#

In GA

Biden leads Trump 51-43

Sanders leads Trump 48-44

Warren leads Trump 47-44

Buttigieg leads Trump 46-43

Harris leads Trump 45-44
Click to expand...
This is the first Presidential election where I've felt that the Democrat has a shot in Georgia.  There's still a lot any of these candidates would have to overcome to win but considering how close Abrams came and how unpopular Trump is it wouldn't surprise me if it went blue or comes really close.  I'm not sure which of those 5 I think has the best shot but it probably Biden and then Pete.  I think the socialist message plays strong here and being a women, gay or black is less of a hurdle for those candidates.  All 3 of those are an "issue" for the rural parts of Georgia but Trump will win those counties easily anyway.

 
AAABatteries said:
This is the first Presidential election where I've felt that the Democrat has a shot in Georgia.  There's still a lot any of these candidates would have to overcome to win but considering how close Abrams came and how unpopular Trump is it wouldn't surprise me if it went blue or comes really close.  I'm not sure which of those 5 I think has the best shot but it probably Biden and then Pete.  I think the socialist message plays strong here and being a women, gay or black is less of a hurdle for those candidates.  All 3 of those are an "issue" for the rural parts of Georgia but Trump will win those counties easily anyway.
Click to expand...
2 Senate races in Georgia too, it would be huge to flip it.  Not counting on it though.

 
Mystery Achiever said:
Well, it looks like Patrick is going to declare tomorrow. I don't get it. Bloomberg and Clinton (who I'm still not expecting) would at least hit the ground with constituencies and name recognition. I couldn't tell you anything about him other than he was Gov of MA
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/politics/deval-patrick-2020/index.html
Click to expand...
There's clearly a big divide between Dem donors, who are unhappy with the current field, and Dem voters, who aren't. None of these late entries are going to make a splash at all - even Bloomberg. He was polling at just 2-3% earlier this year.

 
I don't think they will, either, but this vision of donors scrambling to find a savior candidate and the associated comments about a weak field hurts regardless even if no one else jumps in. And if they do, it could be counter-productive, since they'll likely just siphon from other moderates and help progressives, which doesn't seem to be the goal.

 
Mystery Achiever said:
Well, it looks like Patrick is going to declare tomorrow. I don't get it. Bloomberg and Clinton (who I'm still not expecting) would at least hit the ground with constituencies and name recognition. I couldn't tell you anything about him other than he was Gov of MA
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/politics/deval-patrick-2020/index.html
Click to expand...
The only reason I can figure is that they get to establish themselves as marketers of a certain corporate vision.  It raises their profile.  I didn't see any point to Tim Ryan's campaign, other than fearmongering about Russians and trashing progressive policy, but certain people pay very well to have a polished suit say stuff like that.  Speaking engagements, MSNBC bookings, revolving door work behind the scenes, any number of great business opportunities that exist for politicians after office.  Maybe it's about pleasing their own vanity.  Actually rendering some sort of service to the country tends to fall pretty far down the list.  

 
Bloomberg believes he knows what's best for others. Clinton would get vindication. 
Patrick, no idea, but it's happening:
WaPo:  Deval Patrick has called party leaders, supporters and elected officials to confirm that he intends to run for the Democratic presidential nomination and will make a formal announcement in the next day or two, according to two people with knowledge of his plans. The former Massachusetts governor on Wednesday was working through a list of people to alert them of his decision. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
2 Senate races in Georgia too, it would be huge to flip it.  Not counting on it though.
Click to expand...
I think it will help in the Senate races but I think Trump losing is more likely.  It’s impossible to know if the suburban counties truly shifted blue in 2016 and 2018 or if it was just those people rejecting Trump because he’s awful.  I’m in the next layer of suburbia, if you will, and while there was also a trend left it still comfortably went for Trump is 2016.  If my county (Cherokee) turns blue in 2020 Trumps loses.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The "establishment" is determined to screw this thing up aren't they?  Maybe look at Biden not doing well for what it is...a desired change in direction.  Embrace it, don't fight it.  Reality is, it's your guy against Trump.  If you can't make that case, you need to hang them up.

 
Patrick’s formula is fairly simple, it seems to me: use name recognition to do well in New Hampshire, then use that to steal the southern black vote from Biden, starting with South Carolina. 

Its a long shot. 

 
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