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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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28 minutes ago, wikkidpissah said:

Tim's probably right - it happens so seldomly, i feel duty-bound to point it out - endorsing would be actually doing something, a clear violation of Obama's "look good doing nothing" modus operandi.

Just a guess on my part . We do know that Cadillac doesn’t like Warren and he didn’t want to run without support from Obama. Should be more interesting than Bloomberg 

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3 hours ago, timschochet said:

Patrick’s formula is fairly simple, it seems to me: use name recognition to do well in New Hampshire, then use that to steal the southern black vote from Biden, starting with South Carolina. 

Its a long shot. 

Hardly anybody outside the state of MA even knows who this person is.  I follow politics somewhat closely, and I had forgotten that he existed.  

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20 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Hardly anybody outside the state of MA even knows who this person is.  I follow politics somewhat closely, and I had forgotten that he existed.  

What is it with MA politicians? We even export guys to other states to become pols , de Blasio, Bloomberg & Schiff 

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On 11/12/2019 at 3:03 PM, Sinn Fein said:

Honestly - the same way he overcame zero name-recognition 9 months ago.

I trust that he, and his team, will be working very hard to get his message out.  Its not an overnight process though - it will take time and work.  And, I think the first part of the equation was similar to Obama - Pete had to first show he could win the white vote, before anyone else was going to waste time and figure out if he is the right candidate for them.

When we start counting actual votes Mayor Pete will be gone quickly.  He has all the money and press support and no grass roots.  ABP.  ANY BUT PROGRESSIVES.  Too bad the country is mostly progressive.

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On 11/12/2019 at 3:03 PM, Sinn Fein said:

Honestly - the same way he overcame zero name-recognition 9 months ago.

I trust that he, and his team, will be working very hard to get his message out.  Its not an overnight process though - it will take time and work.  And, I think the first part of the equation was similar to Obama - Pete had to first show he could win the white vote, before anyone else was going to waste time and figure out if he is the right candidate for them.

What's his message?  

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15 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

When we start counting actual votes Mayor Pete will be gone quickly.  He has all the money and press support and no grass roots.  ABP.  ANY BUT PROGRESSIVES.  Too bad the country is mostly progressive.

He has plenty of grass roots support - at both the most recent gatherings of candidates in Iowa - Polk County Steak Fry, and Liberty and Justice Dinner - Buttigieg had the highest level of support in attendance.

I would put his odds of winning Iowa at slightly better than 50-50 right now - not based on his money*, or media support - but based on the fact he has the largest organizational infrastructure in Iowa - most offices/staff.  The ground game - in all corners of the state, will be the difference.

There are only two campaigns that I think have created, and executed, a strategy for winning the nomination - Buttigieg, and Warren. 

 

*Obviously his money allows him to pay his staff and open offices - but having money does not mean spending money wisely.

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4 hours ago, IC FBGCav said:

When we start counting actual votes Mayor Pete will be gone quickly.  He has all the money and press support and no grass roots.  ABP.  ANY BUT PROGRESSIVES.  Too bad the country is mostly progressive.

Agreed, once Biden and Warren start going after him, he is done.  Plus black votes will not come easy for Pete 

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11 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

Agreed, once Biden and Warren start going after him, he is done.  Plus black votes will not come easy for Pete 

Going after him with what?

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Nevada Poll:

#Nevada  @foxnewspoll (11/10-13):


Biden 24%
Sanders 18%
Warren 18%
Buttigieg 8%
Steyer 5%
Harris 4%
Yang 3%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%

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Buttigieg has strived mightily to win support among the black community, especially on his home turf. His firing of South Bend’s first black police chief when he entered office in 2012 set off protests at the time, and Buttigieg wrote in his memoir that the controversy “affected my relationship with the African-American community in particular for years to come.” This past June, in the middle of his presidential campaign, Buttigieg returned home after a police officer gunned down a black man in South Bend. An exchange between a black constituent and Buttigieg at a tense demonstration has dogged his campaign ever since.

“You’re running for president, and you want black people to vote for you?” the woman said. “That’s not going to happen.”

“Ma’am, I’m not asking for your vote,” Buttigieg responded.

When pressed on the lack of black support, Buttigieg and his campaign have made repeated references to the Douglass Plan, named for abolitionist Frederick Douglass. “Our response to those who ask what our agenda for black America is, is the Douglass Plan.” Buttigieg said recently on CNN. “It is the most comprehensive vision put forward by a 2020 candidate on the question of how we’re going to tackle systemic racism in this country.”

To build support for the plan, Buttigieg and his staff lobbied prominent black South Carolinians to endorse it in order to strengthen the cause of racial justice. The Washington Post reported on Monday that “Buttigieg persuaded hundreds of prominent black South Carolinians to sign onto the plan even if they are not supporting Buttigieg himself.”

Along with his release of the plan, his campaign directed consultants to convene focus groups with undecided black voters in South Carolina. The resulting research memo, finalized in late July, concluded that Buttigieg’s sexuality was a “barrier” to winning support among black voters. The memo was leaked to the press this fall. Though the campaign has since denied that it was the source of the leak, the initial article about the memo, published on October 22 by McClatchy, includes on-the-record quotes from the Buttigieg campaign — the type that customarily accompany a story that a campaign cooperates with.

Three days later, the Buttigieg campaign began promoting a list of 400 South Carolinian supporters of his Douglass Plan in emails to reporters and posts on social media.

Buttigieg traveled to South Carolina to spread awareness of the plan. The supporters were rolled out in a press release and open letter published in the HBCU Times — which focuses on “positive news related to Historically Black Colleges and Universities.” Listed at the top of the press release were three prominent supporters, Columbia City Councilwoman Tameika Devine; Rehoboth Baptist pastor and state Rep. Ivory Thigpen; and Johnnie Cordero, chair of the state party’s Black Caucus.

“There is one presidential candidate who has proven to have intentional policies designed to make a difference in the Black experience, and that’s Pete Buttigieg,” read the open letter released along with the plan. “We are over 400 South Carolinians, including business owners, pastors, community leaders, and students. Together, we endorse his Douglass Plan for Black America, the most comprehensive roadmap for tackling systemic racism offered by a 2020 presidential candidate.”

The blowback came immediately. Devine, who has not endorsed a candidate yet in the presidential election, told The Intercept that she did not intend her support for the plan to be read as an endorsement for Buttigieg’s candidacy, and believes the campaign was “intentionally vague” about the way it was presented.

“Clearly from the number of calls I received about my endorsement, I think the way they put it out there wasn’t clear, that it was an endorsement of the plan, and that may have been intentionally vague. I’m political, I know how that works,” she said. “I do think they probably put it out there thinking people wouldn’t read the fine print or wouldn’t look at the details or even contact the people and say, ‘Hey, you’re endorsing Mayor Pete?’”

Asked if she knew if any of the black supporters of the plan were also supporters of Buttigieg, she said she wasn’t sure. “The only ones I really knew were me and Rep. Thigpen,” she said. “I don’t know many — actually, now that I think about it, other than the folks working on Mayor Pete’s campaign, I don’t know of any local elected officials who have endorsed him yet.”

“It was clear to me, or at least I thought I made it clear to them, that I was a strong Bernie Sanders supporter — actually co-chair of the state, and I was not seeking to endorse their candidate or the plan.

Thigpen, meanwhile, has endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders for president, and was startled when he learned the campaign had not only attached his name to the plan, but also listed him as one of three prominent supporters atop the letter.

“How it was rolled out was not an accurate representation of where I stand,” Thigpen told The Intercept. “I didn’t know about its rolling out. Somebody brought it to my attention, and it was alarming to me, because even though I had had conversations with the campaign, it was clear to me, or at least I thought I made it clear to them, that I was a strong Bernie Sanders supporter — actually co-chair of the state, and I was not seeking to endorse their candidate or the plan. But what I had talked about was potentially giving them a quote of support in continuing the conversation, because I do think it’s a very important conversation.”

Thigpen said he thought rolling out the big list of supporters was intended to show broad support in the black community, despite the reality. The letter was published out of the blue, Thigpen said. “I actually had not circled back to give them a quote, so I was alarmed and very much surprised to see, particularly, the headline as such because I do think it muddies the water, I do think it was a misrepresentation, and it easily could have confused a lot of people as to where I stood. That was, from the very beginning, concerns that I expressed,” he said. Thigpen said he reached out to the Sanders campaign to let them know what had happened, and aides there said they would talk to the Buttigieg campaign.

https://theintercept.com/2019/11/15/pete-buttigieg-campaign-black-voters/

Edited by ren hoek

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It's just amazing that money doesn't matter now with being electable.  And individual donors don't matter either.  What happened?

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1 minute ago, IC FBGCav said:

It's just amazing that money doesn't matter now with being electable.  And individual donors don't matter either.  What happened?

I don’t understand your assertion - also, you may need to define your definition of electable.  After 2016 I think we all need to reconsider what we consider electable.

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2 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

I don’t understand your assertion - also, you may need to define your definition of electable.  After 2016 I think we all need to reconsider what we consider electable.

Bernie has the most money, when he didn't it was an issue.  Now it doesn't matter.

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1 hour ago, IC FBGCav said:

Bernie has the most money, when he didn't it was an issue.  Now it doesn't matter.

Ah - I get it now.  I honestly don’t remember him not having money being a big issue - and I was and am a big Bernie fan.  

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15 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Ah - I get it now.  I honestly don’t remember him not having money being a big issue - and I was and am a big Bernie fan.  

It was against Hillary.  I haven't even donated yet or really paid attention.  But I don't have too.  I am about policies.  No one will ever convince me that giving healthcare to everyone or taxing the rich more is bad.  Especially when I know the numbers.

Edited by IC FBGCav

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16 minutes ago, AAABatteries said:

Ah - I get it now.  I honestly don’t remember him not having money being a big issue - and I was and am a big Bernie fan.  

Go look at the old thread, he is too far left too.  Main stream media got smart though, they quit bashing him and now ignore him.  Neither will work.  His policies will matter and get attention.

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Just now, IC FBGCav said:

Go look at the old thread, he is too far left too.  Main stream media got smart though, they quit bashing him and now ignore him.  Neither will work.  His policies will matter and get attention.

Definitely remember the calls of him being too far left - which became funny when Hillary began co-opting his positions.  Either way - I feel he should be proud of how he’s altered the landscape and pushed issues to the forefront.  I also feel like he probably missed his best chance.  

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Just now, AAABatteries said:

Definitely remember the calls of him being too far left - which became funny when Hillary began co-opting his positions.  Either way - I feel he should be proud of how he’s altered the landscape and pushed issues to the forefront.  I also feel like he probably missed his best chance.  

I get it.

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14 hours ago, IC FBGCav said:

Did I mention my niece was Betos press secretary.  Still couldn't go there.

Probably just thinks he's a dreamboat or something.  

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Samuel D. Finkelstein II @CANCEL_SAM

UnitedHealthGroup’s stock price skyrocketed today, as markets reacted to Warren’s non-M4A health plan. Healthcare stocks overall posted their biggest one-day gain since January. That’s really all you need to know about who Warren’s plan works for.

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Selzer is releasing a new Iowa poll tonight - so it should provide good fodder for the Sunday talkshows no matter how it turns out.

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2 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Selzer is releasing a new Iowa poll tonight - so it should provide good fodder for the Sunday talkshows no matter how it turns out.

Des Moines Register/CNN poll

Buttigieg 25%
Warren 16%
Biden 15%
Sanders 15%
Klobuchar 6%
Booker 3%
Gabbard 3%
Harris 3%
Steyer 3%
Yang 3%
Bloomberg 2%

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Favorability:
Buttigieg 72/16 (+56)
Warren 71/25 (+46)
Biden 64/33 (+31)
Klobuchar 53/23 (+30)
Sanders 61/35 (+26)

Castro 35/35 (0)
Steyer 37/39 (-2)
Sestak 8/24 (-16)
Delaney 18/34 (-16)
Gabbard 25/45 (-20)
Williamson 11/47 (-36)
Bloomberg 19/58 (-39)

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7 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

Wow, surprised at Bloomberg’s unfavorability.

Its Iowa.  He's New York, and late to the game.

My sense is that despite the whole not-reflecting-the-demographics-of-nation-bit, that Iowans take this First in the Nation Caucus stuff very seriously.  And, along those lines - retail politics matter more in Iowa (and New Hampshire) than they do in say California or New York.  So, it would be difficult for Bloomberg to fare well here - given that he has not gone to Iowa and run the gamut. 

 

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11 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

Des Moines Register/CNN poll

Buttigieg 25%
Warren 16%
Biden 15%
Sanders 15%
Klobuchar 6%
Booker 3%
Gabbard 3%
Harris 3%
Steyer 3%
Yang 3%
Bloomberg 2%

Wow - that's a great poll for Pete.  Hopefully the other early states begin to take notice.

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Quinnipiac University Poll - South Carolina:

 

Biden: 33%
Warren: 13%
Sanders: 11%
Buttigieg: 6%
Steyer: 5%
Yang: 4% 
Harris: 3% 
Booker: 2%

 

 

This continues to be Biden's firewall.  I think the only way Buttigieg can make up ground here is to roll up his sleeves and spend quality time in South Carolina.  He needs to get to know the people on a personal level - and vice versa.

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1 minute ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Did you say one more poll for Steyer for Dec.? This should do it.Helps Yang, also.Everyone higher is already in.

Yes - he now has 4 polls - but needs to meet the donor threshold - 200,000 unique donors.

I would expect his team to make a concerted effort to get a bunch of $1 donations in the next couple of weeks.

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Yang has the donors - needs 1 more poll, which I expect he will get. 

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46 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Quinnipiac University Poll - South Carolina:

 

Biden: 33%
Warren: 13%
Sanders: 11%
Buttigieg: 6%
Steyer: 5%
Yang: 4% 
Harris: 3% 
Booker: 2%

 

 

This continues to be Biden's firewall.  I think the only way Buttigieg can make up ground here is to roll up his sleeves and spend quality time in South Carolina.  He needs to get to know the people on a personal level - and vice versa.

I was listening to Al Sharpton about this today- I am not a fan of Sharpton but he has a good handle on the black vote IMO.

He thinks that the anti-gay thing may be a little overstated. He admitted that with older blacks, it's certainly part of it, but a bigger part is that Buttigieg is blamed for supporting white police against blacks in South Bend, and that this feeling has carried over down south. Fair or unfair, Sharpton claims that this is the impression.

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Pete:

“Every time Democrats have succeeded in the last 50 years, it's been with a new-generation figure who's not been marinating in Washington for a long time,” he told me. “Every time we've tried to go with the kind of safe, established, been-here-for-a-long-time kind of figure, we have come up short. This isn't just a pattern. This is an iron, unbroken law going back to the '60s.”

 

:coffee:

 

Kennedy

Carter

Clinton

Obama

 

(Only LBJ breaks the pattern, but of course he was re-elected when he first ran)

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19 hours ago, timschochet said:

I was listening to Al Sharpton about this today- I am not a fan of Sharpton but he has a good handle on the black vote IMO.

He thinks that the anti-gay thing may be a little overstated. He admitted that with older blacks, it's certainly part of it, but a bigger part is that Buttigieg is blamed for supporting white police against blacks in South Bend, and that this feeling has carried over down south. Fair or unfair, Sharpton claims that this is the impression.

Yeah, I think they’re sort of stripping blacks of their own agency when they chalk it up to homophobia.  The systemic racism and division in South Bend which hasn’t improved after 7 years of Mayor Pete is probably the most clearcut reason why he gets 0% black support in South Carolina.

Sanders’ splits are 72/13/12 favorable/unfavorable/‘haven’t heard enough’ among blacks in that QU poll, while Buttigieg’s are 22/16/60.  So I don’t think it’s a deal where they just haven’t heard enough about him yet.

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26 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

 while Buttigieg’s are 22/16/60.  So I don’t think it’s a deal where they just haven’t heard enough about him yet.

Can you expound? That's exactly what those numbers say to me.
 

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5 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Can you expound? That's exactly what those numbers say to me.
 

Mayor Pete's 22/38 favorability, if you extrapolate it out, is basically 57% favorability among AAs.  That 38% cross-section has an opinion.  By comparison, Biden and Sanders are at 89.6% and 84.7% favorability.  It could of course change dramatically given more presence and name recognition in SC, but that's where it's at right now.  It stands to reason that black people see stuff like this and find it repellent.  It's clear the wishywashy 'uniter' stuff didn't work in South Bend and I think they see that.  

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Thx for explaining.. Where are you getting the 22/38 vs 22/16 you quoted?
I don't know that you can accurately project off those numbers. 1st because they're so low (higher, of course if you use 38 vs 16). 2nd because numbers that low suggest, to me anyway, those people are the most engaged in the process and not necessarily reflective of the broader voting population. Clearly not an easy path for him, regardless, but 60% not familiar seems like an opportunity.

 

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1 hour ago, IC FBGCav said:

4,000,000 individual donors for the guy that has no shot.  Keep it hush.

The news covers him like he's in a distant 4th. But I think he's the only one that would beat Trump.  He's the one Trump's afraid of.  But for some reason the Dem establishment acts like he doesn't exist.  Would rather lose with one of their corporate candidates than win with a progressive.  

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1 hour ago, IC FBGCav said:

4,000,000 individual donors for the guy that has no shot.  Keep it hush.

Sorry 

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Cautionary tale for the latest New Hampshire poll, showing Pete with a healthy lead:

 

Nate Silver @NateSilver538 · 18m

Buttigieg is clearly on an upward trajectory but that New Hampshire poll you're all tweeting about has a sample size of only 255 voters.

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3 hours ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Thx for explaining.. Where are you getting the 22/38 vs 22/16 you quoted?
I don't know that you can accurately project off those numbers. 1st because they're so low (higher, of course if you use 38 vs 16). 2nd because numbers that low suggest, to me anyway, those people are the most engaged in the process and not necessarily reflective of the broader voting population. Clearly not an easy path for him, regardless, but 60% not familiar seems like an opportunity.

I just added the 16% 'unfavorables' to get a percentage% of support.  So 22% people out of 38% (22% favorable vs. 16% unfavorable) for 57(really 58)% favorability.  I was basically thinking of them as an individual person rather than a %, which could be flawed in itself, but I just think of it as 22% favorable, 16% unfavorable, with an additional 60% undecided (and therefore moot).  So out of the total 38% who expressed an opinion, 22% had a favorable one for 58% favorability.  

That's at least a 3rd of AAs who were asked about Buttigieg saying not only are they not unfamiliar with Buttigieg, but that they have a significantly lower view of him than other candidates.  According to that poll, less than a single percent of African Americans would vote for Mayo Pete if the primary were held today.  It's a huge hurdle for him and it probably stems at least partially from his record as a mayor in South Bend.  

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Ok, I follow. Still not sure it is projectable. A real risk for him is that, as that 60% becomes familiar, it is as "the guy getting none of the black vote".

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11 minutes ago, ren hoek said:

It's a huge hurdle for him and it probably stems at least partially from his record as a mayor in South Bend.  

It is a hurdle.  I very much doubt many people in South Carolina know anything about his tenure as mayor if South Bend.

Very few people anywhere know much about his tenure in South Bend...

 

I think its mostly a function of not having any track record.  Bernie had this same challenge 4 years ago - but now people know him more, and trust him more than they did in 2016.  Pete has to overcome the trust issue - and the only way to effectively do that is the same way he convinced Iowans to vote for him - get out amongst the people and just have that conversation.

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Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders

We are the fastest campaign in history to reach 4 million donations.

We are the only campaign with more donations and donors than Trump.

Our campaign is historic because we have millions of people ready to take on the corporate elite and transform this country.

🤷‍♂️

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