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Sinn Fein

2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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2 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

How do you parse this with Trump and his team?

Trump is an #######.

He had a (very) effective campaign team/strategy.

 

A good campaign team will devise a strategy to play to the candidate's strengths and negate their weaknesses.  I agree with those above who point out that Harris was responsible for picking her team, and the failure to pick a good one is a mark against her as a candidate.

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6 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Trump is an #######.

He had a (very) effective campaign team/strategy.

 

A good campaign team will devise a strategy to play to the candidate's strengths and negate their weaknesses.  I agree with those above who point out that Harris was responsible for picking her team, and the failure to pick a good one is a mark against her as a candidate.

I don't like nor hate you boy Pete but I just don't think he will making any meaningful change for the people that need it.  But I guarantee this, Trump will use coded or not so coded language about his sexual  orientation to rally his base.  It will be disgusting and work.  

Edited by IC FBGCav

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3 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

I don't like nor hate you boy Pete but I just don't think he will making any meaningful change for the people that need it.  But I guarantee this, Trump will use coded or not so coded language about his sexual  orientation to rally his base.  It will be disgusting and work.  

I am sure he will.

But, the way I see it - those that will be bothered enough to not vote for Pete, probably were never going to vote for Pete for other reasons.

I think anyone who is inclined to vote for Pete for policy or ideological reasons, will not be deterred by his sexual orientation.

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3 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I am sure he will.

But, the way I see it - those that will be bothered enough to not vote for Pete, probably were never going to vote for Pete for other reasons.

I think anyone who is inclined to vote for Pete for policy or ideological reasons, will not be deterred by his sexual orientation.

Cutting out too many votes there to win.

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14 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I am sure he will.

But, the way I see it - those that will be bothered enough to not vote for Pete, probably were never going to vote for Pete for other reasons.

I think anyone who is inclined to vote for Pete for policy or ideological reasons, will not be deterred by his sexual orientation.

Trump's base will inevitably shrink. -- Thuseth

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Keep in mind it's a primary ad -- it's not meant to appeal to Republicans or Gary Johnson voters.  It's red meat for Dems and I think it's effective in that context because he goes after Trump hard using actual vid of real-world events to do the dirty work.  As I said in the other thread, I've always thought that was an underused tactic and this is a great example of why.  There's so much content from Trump and, since people have all made up their minds about him, there's so little downside to dragging him I expect we'll see more of it in the next year. 

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz

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3 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Keep in mind it's a primary ad -- it's not meant to appeal to Republicans or Gary Johnson voters.  It's red meat for Dems and I think it's effective in that context because he goes after Trump hard using actual vid of real-world events to do the dirty work.  As I said in the other thread, I've always thought that was an underused tactic and this is a great example of why.  There's so much content from Trump and, since people have all made up their minds about him, there's so little downside to dragging him I expect we'll see more of it in the next year. 

That's a good point about it being for Democrats. 

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6 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

New Biden Ad - The World Is Laughing At Trump https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1202401954644865024?s=20

Thanks to @Dinsy Ejotuz for sharing this in another thread.

What do you think of this angle? 

All for it.

It's easy to imagine a version of this ad that targets Republicans and right-leaning independents.  (Obviously those aren't the people that Biden is talking to right now, and that's fine).  If I were Biden's campaign manager in the general election, I would juxtapose clips of Trump being mocked, laughed at, and generally disrespected by world leaders with clips of Reagan, GHWB, and W, reminding persuadable voters that it wasn't always like this.

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I think it brings up a pretty big point I've noticed over the last few years: There's a wide range of how much value people put on what other world leaders think of us. 

This is a generalization which I don't like to do, but it's my observation Democrats put much more value on this now than Republicans do. And I don't think it's just because the current Republican seems to have a low rating among world leaders. 

It ties into the America First or World First type Nationalism or Globalism thing in some ways. I think it's fascinating. 

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4 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

All for it.

It's easy to imagine a version of this ad that targets Republicans and right-leaning independents.  (Obviously those aren't the people that Biden is talking to right now, and that's fine).  If I were Biden's campaign manager in the general election, I would juxtapose clips of Trump being mocked, laughed at, and generally disrespected by world leaders with clips of Reagan, GHWB, and W, reminding persuadable voters that it wasn't always like this.

Where I'd differ there is if I were running Biden's campaign, I'd be all over him being Obama 3.0. I know he wants to be his own man and all that but I'm surprised hammering the connection to Obama hasn't been way more out front. (And to be fair, I'm a noob and don't see that much advertising so maybe it has been)

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Just now, Joe Bryant said:

Where I'd differ there is if I were running Biden's campaign, I'd be all over him being Obama 3.0. I know he wants to be his own man and all that but I'm surprised hammering the connection to Obama hasn't been way more out front. (And to be fair, I'm a noob and don't see that much advertising so maybe it has been)

Running as Obama 3.0 would require Obama to implicitly or more openly endorse him. Obama won't campaign for him or anyone until the general election. 

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Just now, saintfool said:

Running as Obama 3.0 would require Obama to implicitly or more openly endorse him. Obama won't campaign for him or anyone until the general election. 

I don't think it would require an endorsement now. He'd simply be stating facts. He was the #2 guy in what I think many Democrat voters would call the greatest administration in their lifetime. Some would even say he was #1B. Seems like a missed opportunity. It's why every Nick Saban coordinator gets a job. 

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1 minute ago, Joe Bryant said:

I don't think it would require an endorsement now. He'd simply be stating facts. He was the #2 guy in what I think many Democrat voters would call the greatest administration in their lifetime. Some would even say he was #1B. Seems like a missed opportunity. It's why every Nick Saban coordinator gets a job. 

If O's not letting him trade on his name then it's not an effective strategy. Peyton Manning won a SB in Denver with Adam Gase, irrc, and said some nice things about him a time or two. How's that worked out?

And, really, Obama doesn't define the Dem party as much as Trump perhaps defines the GOP now. There is more range of opinions, thoughts and feelings among Dems as was evident in 2016 - Bernie vs Hillary which was not about Obama 2.0, btw - and now. It's not about Obama or his legacy in this election at all. 

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1 minute ago, saintfool said:

If O's not letting him trade on his name then it's not an effective strategy. Peyton Manning won a SB in Denver with Adam Gase, irrc, and said some nice things about him a time or two. How's that worked out?

 

Exactly. It worked out with Gase landing the head coaching job with the New York Jets. 

Now whether they can do the job or not is another discussion. I'm talking here about getting the job. 

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15 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

Where I'd differ there is if I were running Biden's campaign, I'd be all over him being Obama 3.0. I know he wants to be his own man and all that but I'm surprised hammering the connection to Obama hasn't been way more out front. (And to be fair, I'm a noob and don't see that much advertising so maybe it has been)

The problem is - he is nothing like Obama.

Buttigieg is actually the closest to Obama 3.0 - young, well-spoken, full of promise and hope

 

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I like the ad but it doesn’t make me want to pick Biden over the other Democratic candidates.  It’s ineffective like one of those funny Super Bowl commercials that you remember and enjoy but immediate forget what product was being advertised.

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4 minutes ago, Juxtatarot said:

I like the ad but it doesn’t make me want to pick Biden over the other Democratic candidates.

Yea, it really just makes me want to pick anyone but Trump, and not Biden specifically

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53 minutes ago, Joe Bryant said:

New Biden Ad - The World Is Laughing At Trump https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1202401954644865024?s=20

Thanks to @Dinsy Ejotuz for sharing this in another thread.

What do you think of this angle? 

I’ve stated this a few times recently but this is the most appropriate thread so I’ll restate.

People have a really short attention span, and most of the US pays little to no attention to the nuance and specifics of Russiagate, Impeachment, and other major issues with the Administration. We’ve also become numb to Trump - be it his blunders or his bluster, his daily lies to constant bullying and Twitter rants on the daily. 
 

However, we have three years of Trumps behavior, words, deeds, headlines, quotes, tweets... and in the record reactions of others here in this country and world leaders alike. This is an absolute bounty for any number of marketing vehicles to come during the Presidential race. The montages and the “in his own words” juxtaposed to the quotes by all those brown nosing Trump now who called him out as a terrible option before (Graham, Perry... list goes on).

It won’t take a genius to splice together any number of damning clips to reinforce what most of us know, at least to some degree, about Trump. Every day we will see/hear his words on coddling Russia, being Putin’s lapdog, world leaders scoffing and laughing at him, admissions by his COS of quid pro quo - it’s going to be a hammered message that even the most disconnected American won’t likely be able to avoid. 
 

The numbness we get from the day to day faucet may be muted into seeming like a trickle of bad decisions and worse behavior - but out together by professional marketing firms working for the campaign and god knows how many PACs will be a firehose hitting us over the head with the awful behaviors and results of Trump and his actions. 

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2 minutes ago, the moops said:

Yea, it really just makes me want to pick anyone but Trump, and not Biden specifically

Which is why something along these lines should make for a great general election ad.

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

New Biden Ad - The World Is Laughing At Trump https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1202401954644865024?s=20

Thanks to @Dinsy Ejotuz for sharing this in another thread.

What do you think of this angle? 

One of the top 3 angles that should be using against Trump.  I'd focus on:

1.  Promises made promises broken

2.  Worsening economy

3.  His unfitness for office and how he really lowers US credibility and authority

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

New Biden Ad - The World Is Laughing At Trump https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1202401954644865024?s=20

Thanks to @Dinsy Ejotuz for sharing this in another thread.

What do you think of this angle? 

There is nothing in this ad that tells you why you should vote for Biden - or anything about him at all- other than the very last line that says "The world respects Biden." As far as name-checking Obama, he has done it in debates. And been ribbed for it. His high numbers among blacks are already attributed to that association. so I think the connection is already there for people. It's also why he gets attacked more heavily by the Consecho movement on immigration because they go after him for the 3 mil deportations during that administration.

And, Gase may not be best example. It "worked out" for him personally, but most fans would disagree it worked out for the Jets!

Edited by Mystery Achiever

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2 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

There is nothing in this ad that tells you why you should vote for Biden - or anything about him at all- other than the very last line that says "The world respects Biden." As far as name-checking Obama, he has done it in debates. And been ribbed for it. His high numbers among blacks are already attributed to that association. so I think the connection is already there for people. It's also why he gets attacked more heavily by the Consecho movement on immigration because they go after him for the e mil deportations during that administration.

And, Gase may not be best example. It "worked out" for him personally, but most fans would disagree it worked out for the Jets!

Agreed.

And for sure, I'm talking about getting elected here. Of course you have to deliver, but if I were the Campaign Manager, that would be the focus. 

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1 hour ago, Joe Bryant said:

Exactly. It worked out with Gase landing the head coaching job with the New York Jets. 

Now whether they can do the job or not is another discussion. I'm talking here about getting the job. 

I think many people have little belief that a President Biden is anything like President Obama in terms of governance. The "Hope & Change" moment has passed. We're living in a post-Trump world now. Biden is now and has always been the establishment candidate. Every other Dem candidate is running against that notion in one way or another.

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Even as a Primary time frame ad I think it works.  Healthcare, education, economy, all the norms on top of most peoples lists seem to be a distant second for many that just want trump out. 

trump also campaigned on being able to bully the world and regain the respect Obama lost from other countries and world leaders.  This ad plays well to trump's failures there, and Biden does has the most world leadership experience of all the candidates. 

Edited by beef

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3 hours ago, Joe Bryant said:

I think it brings up a pretty big point I've noticed over the last few years: There's a wide range of how much value people put on what other world leaders think of us. 

This is a generalization which I don't like to do, but it's my observation Democrats put much more value on this now than Republicans do. And I don't think it's just because the current Republican seems to have a low rating among world leaders. 

It ties into the America First or World First type Nationalism or Globalism thing in some ways. I think it's fascinating. 

it's more than that. i'm a Kennedy-generation kid - between the victories in the World Wars, the progress we were making daily @ home and the hope for the future JFK represented, i got very used to being a proud American even tho i wasn't a rah-rah patriotic type because, well, we were the best.

now, i dont need to feel that way all the time, but i am VERY not used to being embarrassed for my country. 

this is not political. as i've outlined to you before, i feel GWB was a far more ruinous President and just yesterday i posted here that the Jimmy Carter administration was as bad as Trump's. and, on many occasions on these boards, i've blamed most of this on the country more than the individual, but to have a Macy's balloon of a spoiled bully floating around the airwaves in representation of our great nation lying, insulting, tantrumming, blustering & proudly breaking RICO statutes with virtually his every act is not something many well-minded citizens of the Greatest Country in the World can easily endure.

Edited by wikkidpissah
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3 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

The problem is - he is nothing like Obama.

Buttigieg is actually the closest to Obama 3.0 - young, well-spoken, full of promise and hope

 

They are definitely both full of it.  ;)

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2 hours ago, Juxtatarot said:

I like the ad but it doesn’t make me want to pick Biden over the other Democratic candidates.  It’s ineffective like one of those funny Super Bowl commercials that you remember and enjoy but immediate forget what product was being advertised.

Those may be rather effective. (They’re not supposed to stick in your conscious memory.)

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2 hours ago, the moops said:

Yea, it really just makes me want to pick anyone but Trump, and not Biden specifically

I’d go further than that. If the effect is that we’ll want to choose someone who won’t say crazy things that everyone laughs at, it probably reduces the chance that we’ll pick Biden over his primary opponents.

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7 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I’d go further than that. If the effect is that we’ll want to choose someone who won’t say crazy things that everyone laughs at, it probably reduces the chance that we’ll pick Biden over his primary opponents.

That's a bunch of mularkey.

Well actually on reflection I guess you're right.

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This Reuters poll is the 1st without Harris.
There are a couple of indicators of how fluid the race is and that "top tier" can be shifting
1) Numbers went down from previous poll for every one of the top candidates
2) 31% of D's and I's said they don't know who to support which is the highest level since April

Latest numbers:
Biden 19%, Sanders 14%,  Warren 9%, Buttigieg 6%, Bloomberg 4%, Yang 3%; 1% each: Klobuchar, Delaney,Castro, Booker, Williamson, Steyer, Patrick

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-warren/support-for-elizabeth-warren-drops-to-lowest-since-august-in-white-house-race-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1Y92UL

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40 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

This Reuters poll is the 1st without Harris.
There are a couple of indicators of how fluid the race is and that "top tier" can be shifting
1) Numbers went down from previous poll for every one of the top candidates
2) 31% of D's and I's said they don't know who to support which is the highest level since April

Latest numbers:
Biden 19%, Sanders 14%,  Warren 9%, Buttigieg 6%, Bloomberg 4%, Yang 3%; 1% each: Klobuchar, Delaney,Castro, Booker, Williamson, Steyer, Patrick

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-warren/support-for-elizabeth-warren-drops-to-lowest-since-august-in-white-house-race-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1Y92UL

meh

 

Biggest number from the poll:

Don't Know: 31%

That would seem to create a huge margin of error for the individual totals (i.e. had that 31% been forced to choose - where would those votes have gone?)

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I think that number being so large is significant and gives people other than the front runner(s) a chance.If you force people to choose, you reduce the validity of the results because it is not a real choice and would probably favor candidates with highest name recognition. This gives a better picture of where things actually stand. WHich is that there are still a number of votes up for grabs.

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2 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

WHich is that there are still a number of votes up for grabs.

True - but there is no indication where those voters are leaning.  It seems unlikely, say, that Delaney has a chance.

That 31% probably skews towards the top-4 - because statistically that is where most voters skew.

So, the breakdown of where those undecideds are leaning - even moderate v. left would give a better indication of where the race stands today.

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I do think we are in for a fairly turbulent few weeks into January.

One more debate, which, based on current jostling, should be pretty feisty.  Though, oddly, the front-runner, Biden does not seem to be the target of the most barbs.

Then I would expect a bit of a dead period by the candidates over the holidays, while the surrogates engage in cyber-battle.

Then January hits, and every team should be sprinting as fast as they can towards Iowa.  The team that can sustain positive momentum from January 1 to February 3 will win Iowa.

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I do agree the 1%ers don't really have a shot. I just don't think that forcing people to pick who aren't really leaning toward someone will just make them  pick the name they know(probably Biden or Bloomberg for my friends) and not give you meaningful insight 

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I will say this - I am starting to see a faint Trump-like path to the nomination for Sanders.

Sanders supporters are the most locked in and loyal.  For instance, a recent California poll has Sanders 24% Warren 22% - Biden 14%, Buttigieg 12%.  If those results held, then I think Sanders and Warren would roughly split the vast majority of California's delegates - nearly shutting out Biden and Buttigieg (assuming a 15% viability threshold)

Biden could easily also get shut out of Iowa and New Hampshire - which would then go on to hurt his electability claim in Super Tuesday states - putting him in a vulnerable spot to not get 15% in some states, while Sanders just rolls along with 20% of the vote, grabbing 50% of the delegates.

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1 minute ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Could be the beginning of a trend, but going back to April, that's the only Cal poll he's led in. (plus tied with Biden in one)

Like I said - its a "faint" path - but until the last day or so, I had not even considered that he could be the nominee - knowing he needed to be at 50% +1 after the first vote at the convention.

Seeing a result where he could get 50+% of California delegates while Biden gets shut out, kind of opened my eyes to the possibility, even if improbable. 

 

This is kind of how Trump got the nomination, despite "low" support percentages in early GOP primaries - with a large field, Trump had a steady, unwavering base that made sure he was viable in all states.

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It is good to consider all possibilities. He's been the steadiest and range-bound in support. But national polls can mask what is happening at the local level where it matters. 
 

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Reporters: "Earlier today you said you were open to having a conversation about opening your fundraisers, and that's a question that reporters have been asking for months now, so I'm wondering when do you expect to actually have that conversation and give an answer on that?"

Buttigieg: "Uh, again I don't have a timeline for you."

R: "As the candidate can't you just direct your campaign to open its fundraisers?"

B: "Yes."

R: "And why haven't you done so?"

B: "There are a lot of considerations and I'm thinking about it."

R: "Can you give us an example of those considerations?"

B: "No."

https://twitter.com/PrettyGoodPhil/status/1203350790590664705

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Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

The aggressive arrogance and utter contempt for basic transparency on display here is stunning. Usually candidates hide these attributes until they win. If this is how he behaves as a small-town Mayor, imagine what he'd be like if he wields real power

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New trouble for Liz Warren: she used to be a corporate consultant: 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/memo-in-1990s-pollution-case-shows-elizabeth-warren-in-action-as-corporate-consultant/2019/12/09/6a6fade0-1a9b-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html%3foutputType=amp

Why is this a problem for her? Because she has spent so much time criticizing others for such behavior. Plus, like the “Pocahontas” stuff, like her refusal to explain who would pay for Medicare for All, it goes to question her basic honesty and her representation as a holier than thou type. 

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Two new national polls released today with similar results:

Monmouth (Rated A+ by FiveThirtyEight):

Biden 26, Sanders 21, Warren 17, Buttigeig 8, Bloomberg 5, Klobuchar 4, Yang 3

Quinnipiac (Rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight):

Biden 29, Sanders 17, Warren 15, Buttigieg 9, Bloomberg 5, Yang 4, Klobuchar 3

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