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Sinn Fein

2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place

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Just now, Sinn Fein said:

Looks like Mid-July.

 

Republicans will hold their convention mid-August.  

Oof, that's almost four months for the Don to ridicule his opponent's appearance. Hopefully, the House will be roasting his keester during the runup and cut down on the clown show histrionics.

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Just now, roadkill1292 said:

Oof, that's almost four months for the Don to ridicule his opponent's appearance. Hopefully, the House will be roasting his keester during the runup and cut down on the clown show histrionics.

I think it will get interesting if Trump has a primary challenger - or "decides" not to run at all.

I don't think its a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the nominee.

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1 minute ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

The GOP is considering a resolution that would cancel any challenge to Trump for the party nomination.

- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.

 

"The Resolution Committee bill must pass through the full RNC to be adopted by the party. Presumably, the act would not stop any other Republicans from running, but the RNC would refuse to endorse the opponent."

 

I think they would still get the nomination - if they got the delegates.  Next 15 months is an eternity in politics - but lets say there is a downturn in the economy, and the Trump administration, and Trump himself are embroiled in one investigation after another - I think there is a good chance we see someone other than Trump represent the party in 2020.  (The flip side may be that the GOP opts to cut its losses, and blame the defeat on Trump, rather than risk a loss with another candidate.)

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4 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

The GOP is considering a resolution that would cancel any challenge to Trump for the party nomination.

- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.

This actually happened?  It seems like this would be bigger news if so.

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1 minute ago, IvanKaramazov said:

This actually happened?  It seems like this would be bigger news if so.

It apparently passed the executive committee - still need to be voted on by the full GOP governing body - tomorrow.

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California only awards delegates if a candidate reaches 15% threshold in primary. That is going to be a terrible blow for many in thsi crowded field

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7 minutes ago, the moops said:

California only awards delegates if a candidate reaches 15% threshold in primary. That is going to be a terrible blow for many in thsi crowded field

Interesting.

I can see 4-5 contenders hitting that threshold - depending on their momentum, fundraising, and operations in CA

It obviously gives Harris a big leg up - given that she will have a natural base in the state.

I would think Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke can hit those numbers - then it will be up to Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, et all to find some support.

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18 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

This actually happened?  It seems like this would be bigger news if so.

No, not yet, the full committee still needs to vote on it. But it should be bigger news.

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24 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

The GOP is considering a resolution that would cancel any challenge to Trump for the party nomination.

- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.

So they are begging for someone to run for President as an "Independent" essentially?  That's a bold strategy Cotton.  Let's see if it pays off for them :popcorn: 

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Just now, The Commish said:

So they are begging for someone to run for President as an "Independent" essentially?  That's a bold strategy Cotton.  Let's see if it pays off for them :popcorn: 

Yeah I’m not sure I understand what would happen to state primaries but it does seem to create the possibility for a Bull Moose situation. 

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39 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

The GOP is considering a resolution that would cancel any challenge to Trump for the party nomination.

- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.

Well, he's got 80+% of support from registered Republicans but one would have to think that shutting things down peremptorily like that would alienate those in the party who weren't outright Trumpies. Don can't afford to alienate many more demographics, his already thin margin for error continues to erode.

:peoplearelyingtopollsters:

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42 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

The GOP is considering a resolution that would cancel any challenge to Trump for the party nomination.

- It’s confusing because this would not preclude primaries or a challenge but effectively no other candidate could be nominated by the actual party.

ren must be outraged

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8 minutes ago, joffer said:

ren must be outraged

He and every poster on the site that complained about the DNC rigging the primary for Hillary.

I patiently await their outrage at the GOP.

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4 hours ago, The Commish said:

So they are begging for someone to run for President as an "Independent" essentially?  That's a bold strategy Cotton.  Let's see if it pays off for them :popcorn: 

A legit three way race is the best opportunity for Trump re-election.

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Just now, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

A legit three way race is the best opportunity for Trump re-election.

I don't know about that. Let's say there is a Kasich/Moderate, Trump/Pence, Harris/Beto three way (or is it six way?). Trump pulls only the 30% hardcore MAGA crew I think in this scenario. Voting for Kasich gives many people some cover - especially the large portion that regrest voting for Trump in 2016. So  Kasich/Moderate take the rest of the republican votes and maybe several percentage points from the Dems. Harris/Beto scoop up the rest and win easily

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2 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

A legit three way race is the best opportunity for Trump re-election.

I suppose it depends on the candidate.  But, i struggle to see how a 3rd party candidate helps Trump.

 

I figure his base is about 30% - he gets another 10-12% based on the (R) 

A Conservative candidate eats away at that 10-12%, and maybe even a little of the 30%

 

A Dem should start with about 40%.  So, even if the "independents" split on the 3rd party - the Dem candidate stands a decent chance of winning every state by plurality.

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3 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

A legit three way race is the best opportunity for Trump re-election.

I haven't paid attention to the polling, but isn't his "base" essentially 30% now?  I guess I don't see the same math.  This seems like another Perot outcome for the GOP :oldunsure: 

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1 minute ago, Sinn Fein said:

I suppose it depends on the candidate.  But, i struggle to see how a 3rd party candidate helps Trump.

 

I figure his base is about 30% - he gets another 10-12% based on the (R) 

A Conservative candidate eats away at that 10-12%, and maybe even a little of the 30%

 

A Dem should start with about 40%.  So, even if the "independents" split on the 3rd party - the Dem candidate stands a decent chance of winning every state by plurality.

And I think this would be incredibly generous.

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Just now, The Commish said:

And I think this would be incredibly generous.

Yes - I mean right now - with his support at roughly the 40% level - 30% base, 10% party.

In an election - I think that 10% is going to be less motivated to get out to vote for him.

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Two responses to those that said a three way race doesn’t favor Trump:

The popular vote isn’t a good metric to use in this situation.  

I only said it was Trump’s best chance, not that he’s a guaranteed winner.  Explain to me how he wins in a two candidate race first.

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Dems have to be thinking about Beto being on the ticket in order to try and secure TX, right? If there is anyway to turn TX and FL blue, there is almost no path for Reps at all. CA, TX, FL, NY are over 50% of the delegates needed to secure a win

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5 hours ago, Sinn Fein said:

I think it will get interesting if Trump has a primary challenger - or "decides" not to run at all.

I don't think its a foregone conclusion that Trump will be the nominee.

I've been turning this question over for a while now re: the '20 election: what is the stupidest, most disruptive, most childish, most Donald thing ever that he could/would do? If we can imagine what that might be, it would give us a handle on things next year. With the nomination in the bag (see other postings about this) maybe he struts around until after the convention, getting all those feel good vibes from the magahats at the rallies, and then withdraws at the last possible minute (because he expects to lose to someone he couldn't bear to lose to plus Mueller will be up his butt big time). 

Or maybe he gets trounced, spends two months whining about some mythical fraud at the polls and refuses to attend the inauguration or even leave the White House.

Or maybe he wins again because we're America and we have no shame left.

He'll probably do something worse than I can imagine. Because that would be Donald at his most Donald.

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2 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Or maybe he gets trounced, spends two months whining about some mythical fraud at the polls and refuses to attend the inauguration or even leave the White House.

You know, rats have become a major problem in the White House.  

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43 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Two responses to those that said a three way race doesn’t favor Trump:

The popular vote isn’t a good metric to use in this situation.  

I only said it was Trump’s best chance, not that he’s a guaranteed winner.  Explain to me how he wins in a two candidate race first.

Dems run somebody bland, some pop singer stubs her toe and all the millennials are too traumatized to turn out to vote and Donald wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida by a combined 13 votes.

I don't think this will happen. But that big orange pile of goo has gotten lucky once before.

Dems don't get Texas in '20. Or even '24 or '28. But they might get one or more of Georgia, North Carolina and Florida in all of those years.

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46 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Two responses to those that said a three way race doesn’t favor Trump:

The popular vote isn’t a good metric to use in this situation.  

I only said it was Trump’s best chance, not that he’s a guaranteed winner.  Explain to me how he wins in a two candidate race first.

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9 hours ago, Bucky86 said:

TX isn't turning blue in 2020...

I'm not sure. If it is Beto/???? or ????/Beto vs Trump, I think that is a legit possibility

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We don't talk enough about where Donald is going to increase his vote totals in '20. His supporters on this forum will never address the subject in any detail, at least so far. He has to maintain every vote he got in '16 and then go get some more because of the changing demographics. Where will those votes come from? 

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1 minute ago, roadkill1292 said:

We don't talk enough about where Donald is going to increase his vote totals in '20. His supporters on this forum will never address the subject in any detail, at least so far. He has to maintain every vote he got in '16 and then go get some more because of the changing demographics. Where will those votes come from? 

He doesn’t need to get more votes he just needs to suppress more votes for his opponent.

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2 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

We don't talk enough about where Donald is going to increase his vote totals in '20. His supporters on this forum will never address the subject in any detail, at least so far. He has to maintain every vote he got in '16 and then go get some more because of the changing demographics. Where will those votes come from? 

I think most of his supporters are counting on his landslide victory in 2016 to be sufficient to win in 2020.

I say this somewhat seriously - I think they see Trump's support as stable.  Polls have it all wrong - just like they did in 2016.  And that Trump will carry the midwest again because he cares about working-class people, and Trump is making America great again.

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8 hours ago, the moops said:

I'm not sure. If it is Beto/???? or ????/Beto vs Trump, I think that is a legit possibility

Ted Cruz was easier to defeat than Trump will be, IMO. 

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12 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

He doesn’t need to get more votes he just needs to suppress more votes for his opponent.

This worries me a lot. Especially in NC, Ga and Fl.

10 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I think most of his supporters are counting on his landslide victory in 2016 to be sufficient to win in 2020.

I say this somewhat seriously - I think they see Trump's support as stable.  Polls have it all wrong - just like they did in 2016.  And that Trump will carry the midwest again because he cares about working-class people, and Trump is making America great again.

I hope they get overconfident. Donald's 80,000 vote combined margin in Wi, Mi and Pa and the 200,000 margin in Florida are seriously at risk just by demographic changes. What worries me is American voters' reluctance to "change horses in midstream," and I keep thinking about St. Ron Reagan's low approval rates early in his first term and how he ended up losing all but 49 states in '84.

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11 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

This worries me a lot. Especially in NC, Ga and Fl.

I hope they get overconfident. Donald's 80,000 vote combined margin in Wi, Mi and Pa and the 200,000 margin in Florida are seriously at risk just by demographic changes. What worries me is American voters' reluctance to "change horses in midstream," and I keep thinking about St. Ron Reagan's low approval rates early in his first term and how he ended up losing all but 49 states in '84.

So, speaking to Florida, I'm not sure what's going to happen here, but I think the last thing you need to worry about is suppression.  The other thing to remember is we have experienced a huge influx of people from PR who weren't here for the last election AND felons who have served their time and done everything they were supposed to are now allowed to vote.  I don't know the calculus exactly (it's Florida afterall) but those are huge changes that would lead me to suggest ignoring previous results (for any of the races honestly) as a barometer for predicting the future.

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4 minutes ago, The Commish said:

So, speaking to Florida, I'm not sure what's going to happen here, but I think the last thing you need to worry about is suppression.  The other thing to remember is we have experienced a huge influx of people from PR who weren't here for the last election AND felons who have served their time and done everything they were supposed to are now allowed to vote.  I don't know the calculus exactly (it's Florida afterall) but those are huge changes that would lead me to suggest ignoring previous results (for any of the races honestly) as a barometer for predicting the future.

I agree completely that Dems can win Florida in '20, especially if the new potential voters on the rolls turn out.

The state which appears to quietly be doing the best job at making it more difficult for at-risk voters to get to the polls is probably Ohio. Pubbies seem to have locked that state up and that's a big loss for the blues; Ohio used to be not only a purple state but maybe also the biggest bellweather of every election.

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41 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

I think most of his supporters are counting on his landslide victory in 2016 to be sufficient to win in 2020.

I say this somewhat seriously - I think they see Trump's support as stable.  Polls have it all wrong - just like they did in 2016.  And that Trump will carry the midwest again because he cares about working-class people, and Trump is making America great again.

And we can all look at logic of things right now and say they are wrong.  And I believe they are.  I also didn't believe he would ever win.

I see good signs in some comments here and there that that narrative is over...but reading still on social media (some family and friends) and comments to things...there are still plenty of people who will defend him no matter what.  Even in the worst of things...he is just trying to do what is best.  He just tells it like it is.  And so on.  There are still plenty of people who are all in...that he was right about when he said he could shoot someone and not lose a supporter.  Those people still being plentiful is what still has me concerned.

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6 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

The '20 election worries the crap out of me.

it shouldn’t 

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Some state Polling:

 

Kyle Griffin‏Verified account @kylegriffin1 33m33 minutes ago

 

Registered Wisconsin voters

27% say they would definitely vote to reelect Trump in 2020

12% say they probably would

8% probably vote for someone else

49% definitely vote for someone else.

 

—Marquette U. Law poll

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Bernie is in it to win it.

 

But, I don't think he will.  His message will not have changed since the 2016 election, and I think he will struggle to reach the heights he reached in a 2-horse race.

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11 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

This worries me a lot. Especially in NC, Ga and Fl.

I hope they get overconfident. Donald's 80,000 vote combined margin in Wi, Mi and Pa and the 200,000 margin in Florida are seriously at risk just by demographic changes. What worries me is American voters' reluctance to "change horses in midstream," and I keep thinking about St. Ron Reagan's low approval rates early in his first term and how he ended up losing all but 49 states in '84.

At best, Trump can run on a continued recovery.  Lots of signs that he's running that recovery into the ground.  And even if he weren't the standard business cycle suggests that he's going to be running during a slow-down.  Just don't see anyway Trump can run on "Are you better off now than four years ago?"

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3 minutes ago, Ramsay Hunt Experience said:

At best, Trump can run on a continued recovery.  Lots of signs that he's running that recovery into the ground.  And even if he weren't the standard business cycle suggests that he's going to be running during a slow-down.  Just don't see anyway Trump can run on "Are you better off now than four years ago?"

Well, there is one other issue - the Supreme Court.

A good campaign manager will hammer this issue to Republicans far and wide.  The importance of replacing RBG and Thomas with good, young, conservative Justices.

Of course, since the GOP control the Senate - any vacancies up to about January 20th, 2021 will probably be filled.  So, it might be that Thomas retires, and RBG does not make it that long.

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2020 won't be the last close election but it will be the last one where the Pubbies can keep it close with someone from the crazy wing of the party. Demographical changes are already making this election tougher for The Don but in '24 there will be six or seven million fewer old white people around and 15 million more young voters, many of whom are secular, minority,  strapped with college debt and unable to land traditional jobs with traditional benefits (because of the evolving nature of employment). The Republicans' free market agenda with even less regulation won't cut it with those new voters, who are only a couple more elections away from being the dominant generation in the electorate.

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Well the GOP passed their little resolution:

 

Republican National Committee (RNC) members voted on Friday to throw the party’s “undivided support” behind President Trump ahead of his 2020 reelection bid as speculation continues to mount about potential primary challengers.

The resolution unanimously approved by the RNC at its winter meeting in New Mexico offered “undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his effective Presidency.”


While the resolution is largely symbolic, it is also unusual, because the RNC has historically refrained from expressing support for a candidate before he officially becomes the party’s nominee.

The vote on Friday signals how the Republican Party has come to fully embrace Trump, three years after many Republican officials and members dismissed him as a thorn in the GOP’s side.

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On 1/24/2019 at 10:20 AM, The Commish said:
On 1/24/2019 at 10:13 AM, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

A legit three way race is the best opportunity for Trump re-election.

 I haven't paid attention to the polling, but isn't his "base" essentially 30% now?

Someone with a strong 30% base but with little support elsewhere is way more likely to win a three-way race than a two-way race.

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9 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Someone with a strong 30% base but with little support elsewhere is way more likely to win a three-way race than a two-way race.

I guess I don't understand math.  That's about where he'd be....30%.  Or is there anticipation that the people who don't like him will vote for him and increase that number....it really does seem like both his floor and ceiling.

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44 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Well the GOP passed their little resolution:

 

Republican National Committee (RNC) members voted on Friday to throw the party’s “undivided support” behind President Trump ahead of his 2020 reelection bid as speculation continues to mount about potential primary challengers.

The resolution unanimously approved by the RNC at its winter meeting in New Mexico offered “undivided support for President Donald J. Trump and his effective Presidency.”


While the resolution is largely symbolic, it is also unusual, because the RNC has historically refrained from expressing support for a candidate before he officially becomes the party’s nominee.

The vote on Friday signals how the Republican Party has come to fully embrace Trump, three years after many Republican officials and members dismissed him as a thorn in the GOP’s side.

So is it symbolic or is it something they have to abide by?  That doesn't make sense :oldunsure: 

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3 minutes ago, The Commish said:

I guess I don't understand math.  That's about where he'd be....30%.  Or is there anticipation that the people who don't like him will vote for him and increase that number....it really does seem like both his floor and ceiling.

percent does mean out of a hundred right :confused:

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19 minutes ago, The Commish said:
30 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

Someone with a strong 30% base but with little support elsewhere is way more likely to win a three-way race than a two-way race.

I guess I don't understand math. 

30% is within the margin of error to get to 34%, but not to get to 51%.

(Also, I think his approval ratings are still around 37% rather than 30%.)

If he wins each state 34-33-33, he could win the election by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide. If he loses each state 34-66, he’ll lose by an absolutely gigantic electoral-college landslide.

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