wikkidpissah
Footballguy
A puppet, a bully and a lunchbox decal (and the expensive but fingerworn wax figurines surrounding them) clearly represent 21st C America's level of citizenship. My heart swells with pride.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Again, it's sad because it's true. And it's not just U.S. citizenship they represent, it's the state of the U.S. as a society/civilization. Or at least a painfully significant proportion of the U.S.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Phil Elliott
Footballguy
Can’t wait for the October surprise.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Nice. We saw the progressives clash. Now it's time for the establishment front men to clash.
Biden's Twitter:
Mayor Pete likes to call me part of the old failed Washington. Was it a failure when I helped pass Obamacare, the Paris Agreement, the Violence Against Women Act, or the assault weapons ban?
I have a stronger record of passing big, progressive legislation than anyone running.
Biden's Twitter:
Mayor Pete likes to call me part of the old failed Washington. Was it a failure when I helped pass Obamacare, the Paris Agreement, the Violence Against Women Act, or the assault weapons ban?
I have a stronger record of passing big, progressive legislation than anyone running.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
@timschochet
How does this news (straight from ABC, even) factor into your narrative of the black vote loving Biden?
Or is an entire state anecdotal now, too?
How does this news (straight from ABC, even) factor into your narrative of the black vote loving Biden?
Or is an entire state anecdotal now, too?
ren hoek
Footballguy
@jamie_maz
Buttigieg got 2 days of media coverage saying he won Iowa, leading to a significant boost in NH.
And now it turns out Bernie will win.
This is ACTUAL ELECTION INTERFERENCE, by the Dem party, 10,000x more impactful than stupid Russian faceboook memes ppl lost their minds over.
Buttigieg got 2 days of media coverage saying he won Iowa, leading to a significant boost in NH.
And now it turns out Bernie will win.
This is ACTUAL ELECTION INTERFERENCE, by the Dem party, 10,000x more impactful than stupid Russian faceboook memes ppl lost their minds over.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
FiveThirtyEight now has Sanders the favorite in South Carolina. If he wins the first four states going into Super Tuesday, I think this thing is basically over.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Actually, I think I'm calling it now. Bernie Sanders will be the next President of the United States.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
I think you underestimate how much the "establishment"/donor class of the Democratic party is afraid of Sanders being the nominee. Remember in 2016 how Cruz and Kasich kept fighting until Trump had clinched enough delegates, even after it was obvious Trump would win? The same thing will happen here. And at least one of the guys that will be challenging Bernie is a billionaire with unlimited resources. Bernie has a good chance to be the nominee, but this thing is not gonna be wrapped up on Super Tuesday.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I think that’s an indictment of 538s model. Have any state polls for Super Tuesday states come out since Iowa? Seems the model is predicated on momentum when we’ve all known Biden has planted his flag on SC and beyond.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
One additional thing to consider, however, is that Warren is already talking about being careful with her money. Whatever issues her and Sanders’ campaign have had, I don’t think she’ll stay in the race long if it’s clear that Sanders has more of the progressive wing.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
How can it be an indictment of the model if the South Carolina primary hasn't happened yet?
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
caustic
Footballguy
Only one, a PPP poll from North Carolina:
Biden 25%
Sanders 16%
Bloomberg 14%
Warren 12%
Buttigieg 9%
Klobuchar 5%
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
What I mean is that I don’t think the model has changed based upon data showing a Biden losing ground to Bernie in the states where Biden has his “firewall.” Biden was looking like he’d be fourth in Iowa two weeks ago. But now that Iowa has happened, the model has changed, even if the situation on the ground (Sanders on top through Iowa and New Hampshire) hasn’t.
Now, since my first post, I have seen reference to poll placing Sanders first in Alabama. So maybe things have changed. I’m just suspicious of how the model seemed to move right as they accepted the Iowa results.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
Not in 538's model he didn't. They had him coming in second. With a 34% chance of coming in first. The fact that he finished a distant 4th was a significant change in the situation on the ground.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Small donors have a radicalizing influence on both sides.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/06/small-dollars-big-changes/
"Two of the earliest winners in the small-donor game were Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.) and Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), among the more inflammatory — and hence most visible — Republicans in recent memory. (Bachmann once called for a 'penetrating exposé' on whether members of Congress were 'pro-America or anti-America,' while West observed that 'if Joseph Goebbels was around, he’d be very proud of the Democrat Party.') In the 2010 House elections, Bachmann raised more from small donors than all 48 moderate 'Blue Dog' Democratic incumbents combined. In 2018’s House races, the winning candidates who raised the highest percentage of their funds from small donors included Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), who regularly defended President Trump on cable, raising his profile; Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who received massive media coverage after he was shot at a congressional baseball team practice; and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, who challenged a Democratic incumbent and is now a leader of the House Democrats’ progressive wing."
I doubt there's anything sensible that can be done about it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/06/small-dollars-big-changes/
"Two of the earliest winners in the small-donor game were Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.) and Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), among the more inflammatory — and hence most visible — Republicans in recent memory. (Bachmann once called for a 'penetrating exposé' on whether members of Congress were 'pro-America or anti-America,' while West observed that 'if Joseph Goebbels was around, he’d be very proud of the Democrat Party.') In the 2010 House elections, Bachmann raised more from small donors than all 48 moderate 'Blue Dog' Democratic incumbents combined. In 2018’s House races, the winning candidates who raised the highest percentage of their funds from small donors included Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), who regularly defended President Trump on cable, raising his profile; Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), who received massive media coverage after he was shot at a congressional baseball team practice; and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, who challenged a Democratic incumbent and is now a leader of the House Democrats’ progressive wing."
I doubt there's anything sensible that can be done about it.
rockaction
Footballguy
Wow. I'm a little taken aback about the Scalise aside in the article. "...received massive media coverage" seems out of place and gauche at the least.
But that's not to detract from the point, really, though the article is paywalled and spackled shut to non-subscribers.
But that's not to detract from the point, really, though the article is paywalled and spackled shut to non-subscribers.
Widbil83
Footballguy
Exactly, and he’s not gonna use that unlimited war chest just to go after Trump. He’s going to use it to absolutely destroy Bernie, Biden, Pete and Liz. I’m a little surprised some of the anti Trump/pro Bloomberg (only when running ads against Trump) cheerleaders haven’t thought this far in advance.
Last edited by a moderator:
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It’s funny, when I first read this I thought, hm oh that’s concerning. But then it occurred to me Bloomberg is not doing that at all, at least not so far. I’m not sure what Bloomberg’s game is, but that commercial he directed at Trump was terrific, killer stuff.
Note, I don’t like Bloomberg, I wouldn’t vote for him as nominee (I think), but his potential for the race in terms of attacking Trump is vast.
It’s also interesting to me how much vitriol and time Trump has spent on him considering he’s supposedly a 2nd tier maybe 3rd candidate.
Last edited by a moderator:
Widbil83
Footballguy
Exactly. I’ll be here for all the laughs when Bloomberg eventually nukes all the Democrat candidates with negative ads 24/7.
If you're still viewing Bloomberg as a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate your info is way out of date. Betting markets now have him as a fairly strong second choice for the nomination behind Sanders.
Also worth noting - odds in the general election continue to move in Trump's favor. A few months ago, Democratic party was something like a 52/48 favorite. It's been gradually moving in Trump's direction and now it's more like 61/39 in favor of the Republican Party.
Also worth noting - odds in the general election continue to move in Trump's favor. A few months ago, Democratic party was something like a 52/48 favorite. It's been gradually moving in Trump's direction and now it's more like 61/39 in favor of the Republican Party.
Last edited by a moderator:
caustic
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
That is mainly based on the fact that Bernie Sanders is currently the favorite to win the nomination. Let’s revisit these odds when/if that does not happen.
timschochet
Footballguy
Actually, after doing the math..it looks like that's only partly true. Comparing the ratio of implied probability (based on betting odds) of each candidate to win the presidency vs. implied probability of each to win the nomination, only Bloomberg looks to be relatively even with Trump head to head. Biden may be very slightly better than Sanders, but not much. Buttigieg and Warren look much weaker, although there are some mechanical reasons why the numbers could be distorted for those with little chance of winning the nomination.
Interesting article:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
The person profiled has views that I’ve seen empirical support for elsewhere:
1. Elections are decided by turnout, not by winning over swing voters.
2. People turn out to vote against the other side’s candidate more than they turn out to vote for their own side’s candidate. (Despite this, she does not recommend nominating bland candidates.)
3. Policy positions don’t matter.
She expects the Democrats to win the White House in 2020 no matter whom the nominee is because, as in 2018, she expects the urban, college-educated, and non-white voters to turn out in greater numbers than the rural, white, non-college-educated voters.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
The person profiled has views that I’ve seen empirical support for elsewhere:
1. Elections are decided by turnout, not by winning over swing voters.
2. People turn out to vote against the other side’s candidate more than they turn out to vote for their own side’s candidate. (Despite this, she does not recommend nominating bland candidates.)
3. Policy positions don’t matter.
She expects the Democrats to win the White House in 2020 no matter whom the nominee is because, as in 2018, she expects the urban, college-educated, and non-white voters to turn out in greater numbers than the rural, white, non-college-educated voters.
Last edited by a moderator:
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
roadkill1292
Footballguy
She is charmingly earthy, isn't she? I remember reading about her after the midterms. I have to temper the enthusiasm she instills in me, though, with the knowledge that other prognosticators, like the eminently respectable Dave Wasserman, thinks she's got this one wrong. But win or lose, I don't think Dems will be making a strategic mistake if they make the entire campaign about what a horrible human bean Donald Trump is. That's the message, right there, there's unending material available and you people backing Dem candidates who didn't win the nomination need to stop making your little threats about voting third party or for Donald, suck it up and vote bluenomatterwho.
On another Virginia note, the state legislature and governor are on the verge of trashing Lee-Jackson Day as a state holiday and replacing it with Election Day. Two birds.
Last edited by a moderator:
Jobber
Footballguy
Apologies if this has already been posted, but Joe Walsh (running for the Republican nomination) has this to say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/06/joe-walsh-challenging-trump-gop-nomination-taught-me-my-party-is-cult/?utm_source=reddit.com
When I announced my primary challenge to President Trump last year, I knew running against him for the GOP nomination was the ultimate long shot. Even now, after impeachment, after three years of vulgarities, inanities, betrayals and racist screeds, he has a 94 percent approval rating among Republicans in the latest Gallup poll.
My chances are slim — don’t worry, I know.
It’s been made even tougher by the party canceling primaries to shield the president from being challenged. And by Fox News, and the rest of Trump’s lapdog conservative media, denying me airtime. But I’ve been on TV, I’ve served in Congress and I hosted my own talk-radio show. I don’t need the airtime. More than anything else, what’s made this challenge nearly impossible — to a degree that I didn’t fully realize when I first hit the trail — is how brainwashed so many of my fellow Republicans seem to have become. I hate to say it, but the GOP now resembles a cult.
I was already sensing this, but I was slapped hard in the face this past week at the Iowa caucuses: Last Thursday, the president came to Des Moines for one of his narcissistic rallies. I was in Des Moines, too, so I tried to talk to some folks outside the event before they went in — makes sense, right? Here’s a captive audience of Republican voters. But it turned out to be one of the most frustrating (and frankly, sad) experiences I can recall. I asked dozens of people a very simple, straightforward question: “Has President Trump ever told a lie to the American people?” And every single person said, “No.” Never mind that thousands of his misstatements have been meticulously documented. No, they said, he’s never lied.
I brought up his years-old claims that, unlike President Barack Obama, if Trump ever became president, he’d be too busy to play golf. Most people responded by saying they don’t care whether Trump golfs. But three people said that Trump has never golfed since he’s been president. No one said that they thought he did anything wrong with Ukraine. No one knew that our annual deficits just blew past $1 trillion. Everyone believed hundreds of miles of new wall had been built. (Fact check: False!) When I asked whether they thought Mexico was paying for the wall, most people said yes but were at a loss to explain how. On and on it went: CNN was the enemy and Rep. Adam B. Schiff (Calif.), along with the rest of the congressional Democrats, were lying traitors.
I also phone-banked this week, calling potential Republican caucus-goers throughout Iowa. I always knew it when I got a strong Trump supporter on the line by the language they used and the tone that they took: They’d say no president has been attacked like Trump has or no president has had to deal with such hatred and opposition. (Again: Not true!) They’d get defensive and throw out more lies and half-truths: China is paying for the tariffs, Joe Biden was covering up for his son, and Russia didn’t do anything in the 2016 election were all popular. On and on it went: I ended my two hours of phone time each day pretty bummed out by the mis- and disinformation I’d heard.
Then came Monday night: I went to a caucus and gave a speech to about 3,000 Iowa Republicans. I’ve never been to a MAGA rally, but it sure felt like one. The president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, spoke first and underscored the Trump bottom line: Perfect phone call; Democrats bad; keep America great. Crowd goes wild. I then got up to make my pitch, and — as you may have seen — it didn’t go well. I got booed for saying that our party needed to do some soul-searching. I said the party is going to be a party of old white men unless we become more inclusive. More boos. I said we shouldn’t be okay with a president who lies all the time. I said we need a president who’s decent, not cruel. I said, you might enjoy Trump’s mean tweets, but most people don’t. I said we must be better than a president who makes every day about himself. Boos. And more boos. One woman yelled that she loves the president’s tweets. The crowd cheered her.
I reminded folks that I’m a conservative, but I said conservative policies aren’t good enough. Decency, honesty and compassion matter, too. But they wanted nothing to do with it. There was more booing, more yelling, and I caught a middle finger or two. I’m a big boy, and I can take a tough crowd, but leaving the caucus that night, I realized once and for all that nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary. Not just because it’s become his party, but because it has become a cult, and he’s a cult leader. He doesn’t have supporters; he has followers. And in their eyes, he can do no wrong.
They’re being spoon-fed a daily dose of B.S. from “conservative” media. They don’t know what the truth is and — more importantly — they don’t care. There’s nothing that any Republican challenger can do to break them out of this spell. (Thanks, Hannity.)
Part of me was dejected. But part of me was still hopeful — that a conservative movement based on compassion, honesty, opportunity and inclusion can and will emerge someday soon. I may not always have appreciated that; I may not have always said it. But I’m not part of a cult! I try to learn from new information, and I think for myself. Clearly, that’s not the Trump GOP. I have faith, though, that there are enough principled conservatives out there who think like I do.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/06/joe-walsh-challenging-trump-gop-nomination-taught-me-my-party-is-cult/?utm_source=reddit.com
When I announced my primary challenge to President Trump last year, I knew running against him for the GOP nomination was the ultimate long shot. Even now, after impeachment, after three years of vulgarities, inanities, betrayals and racist screeds, he has a 94 percent approval rating among Republicans in the latest Gallup poll.
My chances are slim — don’t worry, I know.
It’s been made even tougher by the party canceling primaries to shield the president from being challenged. And by Fox News, and the rest of Trump’s lapdog conservative media, denying me airtime. But I’ve been on TV, I’ve served in Congress and I hosted my own talk-radio show. I don’t need the airtime. More than anything else, what’s made this challenge nearly impossible — to a degree that I didn’t fully realize when I first hit the trail — is how brainwashed so many of my fellow Republicans seem to have become. I hate to say it, but the GOP now resembles a cult.
I was already sensing this, but I was slapped hard in the face this past week at the Iowa caucuses: Last Thursday, the president came to Des Moines for one of his narcissistic rallies. I was in Des Moines, too, so I tried to talk to some folks outside the event before they went in — makes sense, right? Here’s a captive audience of Republican voters. But it turned out to be one of the most frustrating (and frankly, sad) experiences I can recall. I asked dozens of people a very simple, straightforward question: “Has President Trump ever told a lie to the American people?” And every single person said, “No.” Never mind that thousands of his misstatements have been meticulously documented. No, they said, he’s never lied.
I brought up his years-old claims that, unlike President Barack Obama, if Trump ever became president, he’d be too busy to play golf. Most people responded by saying they don’t care whether Trump golfs. But three people said that Trump has never golfed since he’s been president. No one said that they thought he did anything wrong with Ukraine. No one knew that our annual deficits just blew past $1 trillion. Everyone believed hundreds of miles of new wall had been built. (Fact check: False!) When I asked whether they thought Mexico was paying for the wall, most people said yes but were at a loss to explain how. On and on it went: CNN was the enemy and Rep. Adam B. Schiff (Calif.), along with the rest of the congressional Democrats, were lying traitors.
I also phone-banked this week, calling potential Republican caucus-goers throughout Iowa. I always knew it when I got a strong Trump supporter on the line by the language they used and the tone that they took: They’d say no president has been attacked like Trump has or no president has had to deal with such hatred and opposition. (Again: Not true!) They’d get defensive and throw out more lies and half-truths: China is paying for the tariffs, Joe Biden was covering up for his son, and Russia didn’t do anything in the 2016 election were all popular. On and on it went: I ended my two hours of phone time each day pretty bummed out by the mis- and disinformation I’d heard.
Then came Monday night: I went to a caucus and gave a speech to about 3,000 Iowa Republicans. I’ve never been to a MAGA rally, but it sure felt like one. The president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, spoke first and underscored the Trump bottom line: Perfect phone call; Democrats bad; keep America great. Crowd goes wild. I then got up to make my pitch, and — as you may have seen — it didn’t go well. I got booed for saying that our party needed to do some soul-searching. I said the party is going to be a party of old white men unless we become more inclusive. More boos. I said we shouldn’t be okay with a president who lies all the time. I said we need a president who’s decent, not cruel. I said, you might enjoy Trump’s mean tweets, but most people don’t. I said we must be better than a president who makes every day about himself. Boos. And more boos. One woman yelled that she loves the president’s tweets. The crowd cheered her.
I reminded folks that I’m a conservative, but I said conservative policies aren’t good enough. Decency, honesty and compassion matter, too. But they wanted nothing to do with it. There was more booing, more yelling, and I caught a middle finger or two. I’m a big boy, and I can take a tough crowd, but leaving the caucus that night, I realized once and for all that nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary. Not just because it’s become his party, but because it has become a cult, and he’s a cult leader. He doesn’t have supporters; he has followers. And in their eyes, he can do no wrong.
They’re being spoon-fed a daily dose of B.S. from “conservative” media. They don’t know what the truth is and — more importantly — they don’t care. There’s nothing that any Republican challenger can do to break them out of this spell. (Thanks, Hannity.)
Part of me was dejected. But part of me was still hopeful — that a conservative movement based on compassion, honesty, opportunity and inclusion can and will emerge someday soon. I may not always have appreciated that; I may not have always said it. But I’m not part of a cult! I try to learn from new information, and I think for myself. Clearly, that’s not the Trump GOP. I have faith, though, that there are enough principled conservatives out there who think like I do.
timschochet
Footballguy
I’ve heard her, I like her, but I don’t agree that it applies to this election.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
I think we're going to have more pressing issues if coronavirus remains a pandemic into November.
The James Carville interview is entertaining. I don't want to quote just a snippet. Here's the link:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/7/21123518/trump-2020-election-democratic-party-james-carville
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/7/21123518/trump-2020-election-democratic-party-james-carville
Bill Weld just picked up an endorsement from Gary Johnson. Could be a game-changer.
Gopher State
Footballguy
Can’t wait to see Hillary,s upcoming interview on Hulu. Sounds like she rips into Bernie with her true feelings. The opening act for the democratic clown show.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
What an end to the exciting battle between Gabbard and Weld for that coveted endorsement! Can’t wait for the HBO adaptation.
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
That gives Bloomberg another qualifying poll toward Nevada.
I think one reason he may be doing so well nationally is due to the heavy ad spend in states where other candidates are not yet focusing.Have to see if it sticks when they start vs just being top-of-mind,
I think one reason he may be doing so well nationally is due to the heavy ad spend in states where other candidates are not yet focusing.Have to see if it sticks when they start vs just being top-of-mind,
Last edited by a moderator:
Similar threads
