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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
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technicaldifficulties
Footballguy
whoknew
Footballguy
I don't know about that. She's obviously beautiful, a very good actress. In interviews, she seems smart, quite pleasant, with a good sense of humor.
He's good looking, very smart, good athlete, and a popular US Senator running for President.
Seems like they are appropriately matched.
Dedfin
Footballguy
prefontaine
Footballguy
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
prefontaine
Footballguy
Looks like the Democrats have drafted their Cornyn challenger: Joaquin Castro likely to challenge for 2020 Senate seat
He's a viable candidate and for those that don't know, this is Julian Castro's identical twin brother, so they should be able to double up on the campaign trail.
He's a viable candidate and for those that don't know, this is Julian Castro's identical twin brother, so they should be able to double up on the campaign trail.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Biden/Harris or Biden/Gildabrand beats Trump in 2020. There is no way any ticket including Sanders wins, sorry.
I guess Beto could be second chair, but it's too soon.
I guess Beto could be second chair, but it's too soon.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I hate Cornyn with all my soul. He is a ridiculous insider, sell-out, no position on anything, senior Senator who has accomplished absolutely nothing in the million years he's been a politician.
I've said it for 20 years, Texas is gonna be a blue state by 2028 and it changes U.S. politics forever. I may have actually underestimated my Cowboy friends, Texas could turn much sooner. The less Ted Cruzeseseseses and the less John Cornyninnnnsssss, the more our country operates like it should. Not even a R v D thing, Those Texas Senators are incapable of upholding the nature of a Democratic Republic. I expect this out of South Carolina, but not Texas.
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
After what happened on the 2016 R side I’m still a little concerned about an Oprah-like run in a really crowded field. The difference being I think Biden and Sanders are more liked and qualified than Jeb and Marco were but nobody seems to be a lock and you can’t tell me that somebody with charisma and name recognition wouldn’t turn the heads of some folks over 76 year old Biden.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
For example, are we really sure Ellen Degeneres wouldn’t do really well if she decided to run?
AAABatteries
Footballguy
Hell, after thinking about it for second I just realized if in bizarro world it’s Trump vs Ellen that I would vote for her for sure. My god, we’re screwed!
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I don't know how a reasonable Dem can vote for Schultz and his opposition to single payer and higher tax rates on the wealthy. But it's out there and I have to accept it.
These kinds of scenarios are why Maine voters approved ranked choice voting (LePage, cough cough).
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I believe 2028 is the year, too. Keep an eye on the I-35 spine, where Dems made huge gains in the most recent midterms.I hate Cornyn with all my soul. He is a ridiculous insider, sell-out, no position on anything, senior Senator who has accomplished absolutely nothing in the million years he's been a politician.
I've said it for 20 years, Texas is gonna be a blue state by 2028 and it changes U.S. politics forever. I may have actually underestimated my Cowboy friends, Texas could turn much sooner. The less Ted Cruzeseseseses and the less John Cornyninnnnsssss, the more our country operates like it should. Not even a R v D thing, Those Texas Senators are incapable of upholding the nature of a Democratic Republic. I expect this out of South Carolina, but not Texas.
I don’t know why his opposition to single payer and high top marginal rates would be obstacles in the general. First, those positions are plenty popular, well within the mainstream; they may even have majority support. Second, and more importantly, very few people in real life, as opposed to on internet message boards, seem to vote based on policy. They instead vote on personality and charisma (and of course party affiliation).
I don’t like Shultz’s personality. But if we’re comparing him to Trump and Warren? Yeah, I can see how he’d get 17% of the vote.
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roadkill1292
Footballguy
I'm not sure what kind of assets his personality and charisma are for him. They appear to have yet to be revealed.
The electorate may not be ready for full on conversion to single payer yet but a non-Republican candidate has to have some kind of a plan, any kind, to reform the health insurance nightmare in this country. Which is only going to get worse and keep rising in the public consciousness every year.
Mostly, though, I'm hoping that something less, way less, than 17% of the electorate understands that a vote for Shultz puts us one vote closer to another four years of Trump.
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c8c5c54e4b0db7da9f3758f/am
Fox New's Chris Wallace says there is now way Trump can win in 2020 with just his base.
Fox New's Chris Wallace says there is now way Trump can win in 2020 with just his base.
timschochet
Footballguy
That isn’t exactly news. Trump didn’t win with just his base last time around either. He won because enough independents and Democrats in certain key states did not like Hillary Clinton and wanted to try something new.
Those same people may vote for Trump again and if so he will be re-elected. But it’s going to be more difficult because Trump is no longer something new, and his main problem is that, outside of his base, people don’t approve of his presidency, despite the strong economy. So in order to win again, Trump has only two chances:
1. Make enough independents and Democrats like him as President (doubtful.)
2. Make enough independents and Democrats oppose his eventual opponent as much as they opposed Hillary Clinton. (Possible. IF Trump can successfully paint the next candidate, whoever that is, as too socialist or too extremist. He will try.)
This assumes a two-way race. It’s trivially easy to win with 40% in a legit three-way race (and easier still in a 27-way race, if you want to reductio ad absurdum out the math).
(Also, Wallace obviously means actual voters, not eligible voters. If 40% of eligible voters pull the lever for Trump, he’ll win in a landslide.)
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Joe Summer
Footballguy
Well, way to state the blatantly obvious, Chris.
Wallace seems to think that Trump has somehow offended so many of his 2016 voters that they're all suddenly going to decide to vote Democrat in 2020.
FAT CHANCE.
Wallace should know better than this. He works for the network that successfully demonized Barack Obama. (I say that not in terms of making him as hated and as unelectable as Hillary was, but in terms of making him unsupportable to anyone who is the slightest bit conservative who also watches Fox News.)
The Trump voters who plugged their noses in 2016 will just plug their noses, cover their ears, and close their eyes in 2020. But they are absolutely still voting "R", no doubt about it.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
I don’t see a 3 way race where the 3rd party candidate gets more than 2 or 3 %
The Commish
Footballguy
By all accounts, that base has gone from 35-37% down to 30%. It's baffling more people don't talk about it. I guess they think if they ignore it, it won't be true?
-fish-
Footballguy
joffer
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
I don’t see Donald Trump losing at this point.
joffer
Footballguy
Interesting. I don’t see any scenario where he wins, barring a Hillary comeback, and even then I’d bet on her.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
An interesting number from Pennsylvania, where Trump won by 64,000 in '16. Dems outpolled Pubbies statewide in the midterms by 474,000. 231,000 of that came in the uncontested Pittsburgh district but a GOP candidate probably wouldn't have picked up many there had one run. The Dems' total -- for a midterm -- was only 236,000 shy of what Donald got there in '16 and they waxed the Republicans by 10 points. The Don is gonna have trouble winning in Pa, Michigan and Wisconsin again, I think. I only hope that will be enough.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
Well, I thought so too in 2016, but yet here we are. So I’ll need to see a strong candidate and good numbers first.
timschochet
Footballguy
Are you sure of these numbers? I haven’t read that. My understanding that Trump is supported by 38-43% of the population and that bottom number is extremely solid.
Gopher State
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
To get to these numbers you have to include "republican" and "republican leaners" together. Pew and Gallup have data for you guys to peruse.
roadkill1292
Footballguy
Even with three million of his '16 voters dead by next November, I still think Republican turnout will be high and the Donald will get at least as many votes nationally as he got then and may even exceed that by a million or so. That won't be enough if Dems turn out like they did for the midterms. The big question remains if they will recognize the most important facet of this election and rally around the eventual candidate. I think the midterms are a pretty good indication that they will but that's not a slam dunk by any means.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Even Donald Trump Jr disagrees with you.
@DonaldJTrumpJr: It’s sickening to see people blame @ChelseaClinton for the NZ attacks because she spoke out against anti-Semitism. We should all be condemning anti-Semitism & all forms of hate. Chelsea should be praised for speaking up. Anyone who doesn’t understand this is part of the problem.
A true story about @PeteButtigieg.
Its a good party trick
Seriously though, there is a lot to like about Buttigeig - I might even have to start learning how to spell his name correctly...
Its a good party trick
Seriously though, there is a lot to like about Buttigeig - I might even have to start learning how to spell his name correctly...
I think Don Jr. was agreeing with GROOT. They were both criticizing the extreme left. (Not Chelsea.)
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
I like this guy. Therefore he has no chance.A true story about @PeteButtigieg.
Its a good party trick
Seriously though, there is a lot to like about Buttigeig - I might even have to start learning how to spell his name correctly...
For those of you wondering about Beto's appeal - I think this about sums it up:
Twitter’s Insiders Are Skeptical About Beto O’Rourke. Iowans Don’t Seem To Care.
“I tend to agree with some of the stories … but I look at him and he’s the only one that gives me that hope," one Iowa voter said during O'Rourke's first campaign trip.
Twitter’s Insiders Are Skeptical About Beto O’Rourke. Iowans Don’t Seem To Care.
“I tend to agree with some of the stories … but I look at him and he’s the only one that gives me that hope," one Iowa voter said during O'Rourke's first campaign trip.
From 538:
Perry Bacon Jr.Verified account @perrybaconjr
That Beto O'Rourke is being classified by some as a somewhat centrist 2020 Democratic candidate is another illustration of the leftward drift of the party--and how its progressives are shaping the discourse.
What Does Beto O’Rourke Believe?
Perry Bacon Jr.Verified account @perrybaconjr
That Beto O'Rourke is being classified by some as a somewhat centrist 2020 Democratic candidate is another illustration of the leftward drift of the party--and how its progressives are shaping the discourse.
What Does Beto O’Rourke Believe?
The Commish
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
I’m sure it’s true. I’m completely sure that all of you Trump supporters are going to be extremely motivated.
Here’s your problem, which Chris Wallace pointed out the other day: there’s just not enough of you. In order for Trump to win, you have to get centrists and independents to vote for him again. And that’s very unlikely at this point.
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
knowledge dropper
Footballguy
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