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2020: The Race For the White House

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3 minutes ago, krista4 said:

There is if you waste butter!  It's a precious resource, like gold or air or children or not really children but maybe other things!

Use the runoff to cook the next pancake

ETA: use the butter to cook the pancakes, not children 

Edited by Dickies
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7 minutes ago, IC FBGCav said:

My takeaway from that list is that Trump supports literally everything except sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea. And limitations on FISA.

That’s kind of interesting, I suppose. Maybe an artifact of Paul Ryan’s refusal to bring anything to a vote that Trump doesn’t support?

In any case, I think the raw count says nothing interesting about Beto O’Rourke.

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Just now, Maurile Tremblay said:

My takeaway from that list is that Trump supports literally everything except sanctions on Russia, Iran, and North Korea. And limitations on FISA.

That’s kind of interesting, I suppose. Maybe an artifact of Paul Ryan’s refusal to bring anything to a vote that Trump doesn’t support?

In any case, I think the raw count says nothing interesting about Beto O’Rourke.

I don't know about all that but hopefully it answered your question that you knew the answer too.

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24 minutes ago, krista4 said:

There is if you waste butter!  It's a precious resource, like gold or air or children or not really children but maybe other things!

He’s not wasting butter. He’s adding butter to the pancake at the exact same stage that most people add butter to a grilled cheese sandwich, presumably based on the same principle: stuff that’s cooked in butter is awesome. It’s just this kind of unorthodox but innovative thinking that we need in the White House.

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7 hours ago, -fish- said:

Yeah, acknowledging climate change as a crisis.  How wacky.   

Opie and Tim don't like him?

:getsoutwallet:  

I never said I didn’t like him. I wrote that his voice when he speaks annoys me. That’s neither here nor there: he seems like a good guy and Is be happy to vote for him. 

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17 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:
45 minutes ago, krista4 said:

There is if you waste butter!  It's a precious resource, like gold or air or children or not really children but maybe other things!

He’s not wasting butter. He’s adding butter to the pancake at the exact same stage that most people add butter to a grilled cheese sandwich, presumably based on the same principle: stuff that’s cooked in butter is awesome. It’s just this kind of unorthodox but innovative thinking that we need in the White House.

I don't know about you, but most people add butter to their grilled cheese sandwiches before each side is cooked.

Here, Beto has clearly already flipped the pancake and is buttering the already-cooked side.

If his intent is to flip the pancake again and cook it like a grilled cheese sandwich, then he's going to overcook the pancake and seal-in the taste of burnt butter.

 

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4 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

I don't know about you, but most people add butter to their grilled cheese sandwiches before each side is cooked.

Here, Beto has clearly already flipped the pancake and is buttering the already-cooked side.

If his intent is to flip the pancake again and cook it like a grilled cheese sandwich, then he's going to overcook the pancake and seal-in the taste of burnt butter.

You can’t butter a pancake when it’s still just liquid batter. He’s buttering it as soon as it’s solid enough to soak it up as a piece of bread would.

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11 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:
15 minutes ago, [scooter] said:

I don't know about you, but most people add butter to their grilled cheese sandwiches before each side is cooked.

Here, Beto has clearly already flipped the pancake and is buttering the already-cooked side.

If his intent is to flip the pancake again and cook it like a grilled cheese sandwich, then he's going to overcook the pancake and seal-in the taste of burnt butter.

You can’t butter a pancake when it’s still just liquid batter. He’s buttering it as soon as it’s solid enough to soak it up as a piece of bread would.

Is that when you butter a grilled cheese sandwich? After it's been cooked and flipped?

Edited by [scooter]

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7 hours ago, [scooter] said:

Is that when you butter a grilled cheese sandwich? After it's been cooked and flipped?

I butter a grilled cheese sandwich before putting it in the skillet. But that’s after the bread has already been cooked to a solid (not just doughy) state. The analogous time for a pancake is as shown on the Beto pic.

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Corey Booker is dating Rosario Dawson.

He should get at least a little bump in the polls for that, right?

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1 minute ago, technicaldifficulties said:

Is he outkicking his coverage on this one? I was a little surprised when I saw that

I don't know about that. She's obviously beautiful, a very good actress. In interviews, she seems smart, quite pleasant, with a good sense of humor.

He's good looking, very smart, good athlete, and a popular US Senator running for President.

Seems like they are appropriately matched.

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1 hour ago, technicaldifficulties said:

Is he outkicking his coverage on this one? I was a little surprised when I saw that

Never really impressed with her imo

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Jeb! speaks

Quote

“I think someone should run just because Republicans ought to be given a choice,” Bush said. “It’s hard to beat a sitting president, but to have a conversation about what it is to be a conservative, I think it’s important.”

I like Axelrod. He's interesting and his show is solid. I really enjoyed his interview with Tom Hanks for instance. But Jeb! is just so boring that this is the most exciting teaser quote he could find. 

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Looks like the Democrats have drafted their Cornyn challenger: Joaquin Castro likely to challenge for 2020 Senate seat

He's a viable candidate and for those that don't know, this is Julian Castro's identical twin brother, so they should be able to double up on the campaign trail. 

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I don’t remember what thread it was in, but a few people seemed not to understand how someone with strong support from 30%-40% of the voters would be more likely to win a three-way race than a two-way race.

Here’s this:

Quote

In the memo, the pollsters revealed that they’d tested two hypothetical three-way contests: Schultz versus Trump versus Harris, and Schultz versus Trump versus Warren. “Less than a week after the announcement” of his interest in running, read the memo, “he was already at 17 percent of the vote in both three-way match-ups.”

The part that they didn’t spell out: In both scenarios, Trump was narrowly winning.

.

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45 minutes ago, prefontaine said:

Looks like the Democrats have drafted their Cornyn challenger: Joaquin Castro likely to challenge for 2020 Senate seat

He's a viable candidate and for those that don't know, this is Julian Castro's identical twin brother, so they should be able to double up on the campaign trail. 

And pull the old Killer B's routine in debates.

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Biden/Harris or Biden/Gildabrand beats Trump in 2020.  There is no way any ticket including Sanders wins, sorry. 

I guess Beto could be second chair, but it's too soon.

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7 hours ago, prefontaine said:

Looks like the Democrats have drafted their Cornyn challenger: Joaquin Castro likely to challenge for 2020 Senate seat

He's a viable candidate and for those that don't know, this is Julian Castro's identical twin brother, so they should be able to double up on the campaign trail. 

I hate Cornyn with all my soul.  He is a ridiculous insider, sell-out, no position on anything, senior Senator who has accomplished absolutely nothing in the million years he's been a politician. 

I've said it for 20 years, Texas is gonna be a blue state by 2028 and it changes U.S. politics forever.  I may have actually underestimated my Cowboy friends, Texas could turn much sooner.  The less Ted Cruzeseseseses and the less John Cornyninnnnsssss, the more our country operates like it should.  Not even a R v D thing, Those Texas Senators are incapable of upholding the nature of a Democratic Republic.  I expect this out of South Carolina, but not Texas.  :2cents:

Edited by Doctor Detroit
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On 3/13/2019 at 4:16 PM, Maurile Tremblay said:

Yang and Buttitigieg both seem like better candidates than Sanders, Warren, or Biden, but name recognition counts for so much, and they don't have it yet.

I also like Klobuchar (still), Booker, and O'Rourke.

I need to learn more about Harris, Hickenlooper, and Abrams (if she runs).

I am very glad that Oprah Winfrey, Michael Avenatti, Mark Zuckerberg, Hillary Clinton, and Eric Holder and are not running.

After what happened on the 2016 R side I’m still a little concerned about an Oprah-like run in a really crowded field.  The difference being I think Biden and Sanders are more liked and qualified than Jeb and Marco were but nobody seems to be a lock and you can’t tell me that somebody with charisma and name recognition wouldn’t turn the heads of some folks over 76 year old Biden.

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Hell, after thinking about it for second I just realized if in bizarro world it’s Trump vs Ellen that I would vote for her for sure.  My god, we’re screwed!

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13 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I don’t remember what thread it was in, but a few people seemed not to understand how someone with strong support from 30%-40% of the voters would be more likely to win a three-way race than a two-way race.

Here’s this:

.

I don't know how a reasonable Dem can vote for Schultz and his opposition to single payer and higher tax rates on the wealthy. But it's out there and I have to accept it.

These kinds of scenarios are why Maine voters approved ranked choice voting (LePage, cough cough).

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7 hours ago, Doctor Detroit said:

I hate Cornyn with all my soul.  He is a ridiculous insider, sell-out, no position on anything, senior Senator who has accomplished absolutely nothing in the million years he's been a politician. 

I've said it for 20 years, Texas is gonna be a blue state by 2028 and it changes U.S. politics forever.  I may have actually underestimated my Cowboy friends, Texas could turn much sooner.  The less Ted Cruzeseseseses and the less John Cornyninnnnsssss, the more our country operates like it should.  Not even a R v D thing, Those Texas Senators are incapable of upholding the nature of a Democratic Republic.  I expect this out of South Carolina, but not Texas.  :2cents:

I believe 2028 is the year, too. Keep an eye on the I-35 spine, where Dems made huge gains in the most recent midterms.

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1 hour ago, roadkill1292 said:

I don't know how a reasonable Dem can vote for Schultz and his opposition to single payer and higher tax rates on the wealthy. But it's out there and I have to accept it.

I don’t know why his opposition to single payer and high top marginal rates would be obstacles in the general. First, those positions are plenty popular, well within the mainstream; they may even have majority support. Second, and more importantly, very few people in real life, as opposed to on internet message boards, seem to vote based on policy. They instead vote on personality and charisma (and of course party affiliation).

I don’t like Shultz’s personality. But if we’re comparing him to Trump and Warren? Yeah, I can see how he’d get 17% of the vote.

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3 minutes ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

I don’t know why his opposition to single payer and high top marginal rates would be obstacles in the general. First, those positions are plenty popular, well within the mainstream; they may even have majority support. Second, and more importantly, very few people in real life, as opposed to on internet message boards, seem to vote based on policy. They instead vote on personality and charisma (and of course party affiliation).

I don’t like Shultz’s personality. But if we’re comparing him to Trump and Warren? Yeah, I can see how he’d get 17% of the vote.

I'm not sure what kind of assets his personality and charisma are for him. They appear to have yet to be revealed. 

The electorate may not be ready for full on conversion to single payer yet but a non-Republican candidate has to have some kind of a plan, any kind, to reform the health insurance nightmare in this country. Which is only going to get worse and keep rising in the public consciousness every year.

Mostly, though, I'm hoping that something less, way less, than 17% of the electorate understands that a vote for Shultz puts us one vote closer to another four years of Trump.

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7 minutes ago, lazyike said:

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c8c5c54e4b0db7da9f3758f/am

Fox New's Chris Wallace says there is now way Trump can win in 2020 with just his base.

That isn’t exactly news. Trump didn’t win with just his base last time around either. He won because enough independents and Democrats in certain key states did not like Hillary Clinton and wanted to try something new. 

Those same people may vote for Trump again and if so he will be re-elected. But it’s going to be more difficult because Trump is no longer something new, and his main problem is that, outside of his base, people don’t approve of his presidency, despite the strong economy. So in order to win again, Trump has only two chances:

1. Make enough independents and Democrats like him as President (doubtful.) 

2. Make enough independents and Democrats oppose  his eventual opponent as much as they opposed  Hillary Clinton. (Possible. IF Trump can successfully paint the next candidate, whoever that is, as too socialist or too extremist. He will try.) 

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28 minutes ago, lazyike said:

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c8c5c54e4b0db7da9f3758f/am

Fox New's Chris Wallace says there is now way Trump can win in 2020 with just his base.

Quote

“You can’t do it,” Wallace responded, “because there’s just not enough votes in the base.” Even with polling that indicates as much as 40 percent of eligible voters may be “ever-Trumpers,” that’s “not enough to win an election,” Wallace emphasized. “So he’s going to have to expand his base.”

This assumes a two-way race. It’s trivially easy to win with 40% in a legit three-way race (and easier still in a 27-way race, if you want to reductio ad absurdum out the math).

(Also, Wallace obviously means actual voters, not eligible voters. If 40% of eligible voters pull the lever for Trump, he’ll win in a landslide.)

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lazyike said:


Fox New's Chris Wallace says there is now way Trump can win in 2020 with just his base.


Well, way to state the blatantly obvious, Chris.

Wallace seems to think that Trump has somehow offended so many of his 2016 voters that they're all suddenly going to decide to vote Democrat in 2020.

FAT CHANCE.

Wallace should know better than this. He works for the network that successfully demonized Barack Obama. (I say that not in terms of making him as hated and as unelectable as Hillary was, but in terms of making him unsupportable to anyone who is the slightest bit conservative who also watches Fox News.)

The Trump voters who plugged their noses in 2016 will just plug their noses, cover their ears, and close their eyes in 2020. But they are absolutely still voting "R", no doubt about it.

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18 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

 


Well, way to state the blatantly obvious, Chris.

Wallace seems to think that Trump has somehow offended so many of his 2016 voters that they're all suddenly going to decide to vote Democrat in 2020.

FAT CHANCE.

Wallace should know better than this. He works for the network that successfully demonized Barack Obama. (I say that not in terms of making him as hated and as unelectable as Hillary was, but in terms of making him unsupportable to anyone who is the slightest bit conservative who also watches Fox News.)

The Trump voters who plugged their noses in 2016 will just plug their noses, cover their ears, and close their eyes in 2020. But they are absolutely still voting "R", no doubt about it.

That won't be enough, either. He needs converts of previous Dem voters.

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2 hours ago, Maurile Tremblay said:

This assumes a two-way race. It’s trivially easy to win with 40% in a legit three-way race (and easier still in a 27-way race, if you want to reductio ad absurdum out the math).

(Also, Wallace obviously means actual voters, not eligible voters. If 40% of eligible voters pull the lever for Trump, he’ll win in a landslide.)

I don’t see a 3 way race where the 3rd party candidate gets more than 2 or 3 %

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4 hours ago, lazyike said:

https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5c8c5c54e4b0db7da9f3758f/am

Fox New's Chris Wallace says there is now way Trump can win in 2020 with just his base.

By all accounts, that base has gone from 35-37% down to 30%.  It's baffling more people don't talk about it.  I guess they think if they ignore it, it won't be true?

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2 hours ago, lazyike said:

I don’t see a 3 way race where the 3rd party candidate gets more than 2 or 3 %

Based on what?  Perot got 18.9%.

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11 minutes ago, -fish- said:

Based on what?  Perot got 18.9%.

stockdale for Veep

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9 minutes ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

I don’t see Donald Trump losing at this point. 

Interesting. I don’t see any scenario where he wins, barring a Hillary comeback, and even then I’d bet on her.

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An interesting number from Pennsylvania, where Trump won by 64,000 in '16. Dems outpolled Pubbies statewide in the midterms by 474,000. 231,000 of that came in the uncontested Pittsburgh district but a GOP candidate probably wouldn't have picked up many there had one run. The Dems' total -- for a midterm --  was only 236,000 shy of what Donald got there in '16 and they waxed the Republicans by 10 points. The Don is gonna have trouble winning in Pa, Michigan and Wisconsin again, I think. I only hope that will be enough.

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59 minutes ago, joffer said:

Interesting. I don’t see any scenario where he wins, barring a Hillary comeback, and even then I’d bet on her.

Well, I thought so too in 2016, but yet here we are. So I’ll need to see a strong candidate and good numbers first. 

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2 hours ago, The Commish said:

By all accounts, that base has gone from 35-37% down to 30%.  

Are you sure of these numbers? I haven’t read that. My understanding that Trump is supported by 38-43% of the population and that bottom number is extremely solid. 

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3 hours ago, The Commish said:

By all accounts, that base has gone from 35-37% down to 30%.  It's baffling more people don't talk about it.  I guess they think if they ignore it, it won't be true?

I have not seen less then 41 percent.  Do you have a link?

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Are you sure of these numbers? I haven’t read that. My understanding that Trump is supported by 38-43% of the population and that bottom number is extremely solid. 

To get to these numbers you have to include "republican" and "republican leaners" together.  Pew and Gallup have data for you guys to peruse.

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I'm convinced the extreme left is going to ruin it for the Democrats chances in 2020. Every week there's something in the news. Chelsea Clinton
? wow

Edited by GROOT

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Even with three million of his '16 voters dead by next November, I still think Republican turnout will be high and the Donald will get at least as many votes nationally as he got then and may even exceed that by a million or so. That won't be enough if Dems turn out like they did for the midterms. The big question remains if they will recognize the most important facet of this election and rally around the eventual candidate. I think the midterms are a pretty good indication that they will but that's not a slam dunk by any means.

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9 hours ago, GROOT said:

I'm convinced the extreme left is going to ruin it for the Democrats chances in 2020. Every week there's something in the news. Chelsea Clinton
? wow

Even Donald Trump Jr disagrees with you.

@DonaldJTrumpJr: It’s sickening to see people blame @ChelseaClinton for the NZ attacks because she spoke out against anti-Semitism. We should all be condemning anti-Semitism & all forms of hate. Chelsea should be praised for speaking up. Anyone who doesn’t understand this is part of the problem.

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