The Commish
Footballguy
He was talking about Obama 1 which was crystal clear. You were wrong. There's no way to spin it other than you weren't paying attention. It doesn't matter what was talked about in conversation prior. Stop digging.
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2020: The Race For the White House - The Good Place (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sinn Fein
- Start date
squistion
Footballguy
Who cares about Obama's first run by itself for referencing the 2016 election? His most recent effort is logically the one that should be compared to Hillary if you are talking about Democratic voter enthusiam and the discussion at the moment was about her. Why in the world reference the first one and not the second unless you are cherry picking numbers. And it wasn't obvious what you are referring to, I thought Obama 1 was some sort of weird typo that wasn't corrected.BassNBrew said:
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BassNBrew
Footballguy
Because it was Hillary's first run and the first female to run for president. Seems like the best comparison for enthusiasm would be an election where someone made their first run and was also a "first". Obama 1 and Hope and Change was a freight train, with Obama 2 some reality that the Big Pharma and Wall Street trumps hope started setting in.
squistion
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
I agree. I could see her just swatting him away like a fly. I don't necessarily buy the argument of Avenatti and others that Trump's opponent has to be a street fighter. Is there any sense, though, that's she's seriously considering?
ETA= I've posted this elsewhere in the forum, but here's her story on getting into politics
https://leanin.org/stories/amy-klobuchar
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Neither candidate in 2016 was dull or colorless. A dull and colorless Democrat probably would have beaten Trump, IMO.
This paper (which I summarized here) brings a lot of good data to the question of whether being a crazy extremist (i.e., "energizing your base") is better than being dull and colorless (i.e., avoiding energizing your opponent's base). The conclusion is that, in a general election, it's generally better to be dull and colorless (though obviously there's more to it than that). (Hillary was not a crazy extremist at all, of course, but for other reasons, she was still far more off-putting to Republicans than most Democrats are.)
The real trick, IMO, is being able to do both at once: to energize your own base while avoiding energizing your opponent's base. Obama did this quite well (outside of the racist portion of the Republican base). I think Beto O'Rourke has an exceptional natural talent for it. Maybe Amy Klobuchar can do it as well. Hillary Clinton couldn't. I don't think Elizabeth Warren can, either. My initial impression is that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris may not be quite as good at it as O'Rourke, but they'd be plenty good enough to defeat Trump.
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Iowa Poll: Biden, Sanders top early look at possible Democratic hopefuls in 2020 caucuses
I assume these results are skewed based primarily on name recognition - but I think its a bad sign for the Dems, in general, if the septuagenarians are leading the way in early 2020.
A second tier of candidates emerges
After Biden, Sanders, O’Rourke and Warren, a second tier of candidates is currently garnering support in the mid-single digits. They include:
Harris, a California senator — 5 percent
Booker, a New Jersey senator — 4 percent
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg — 3 percent
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar — 3 percent
O'Rourke is the current flavor of the day, and absent any missteps, I think he will be a serious challenger when Iowa rolls around. Of, this 2nd group, I am anxious to see what Klobuchar does over the next year to establish her leadership credentials. I am not sure she has the charisma of O'Rourke, so she'll have to show something.
I assume these results are skewed based primarily on name recognition - but I think its a bad sign for the Dems, in general, if the septuagenarians are leading the way in early 2020.
A second tier of candidates emerges
After Biden, Sanders, O’Rourke and Warren, a second tier of candidates is currently garnering support in the mid-single digits. They include:
Harris, a California senator — 5 percent
Booker, a New Jersey senator — 4 percent
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg — 3 percent
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar — 3 percent
O'Rourke is the current flavor of the day, and absent any missteps, I think he will be a serious challenger when Iowa rolls around. Of, this 2nd group, I am anxious to see what Klobuchar does over the next year to establish her leadership credentials. I am not sure she has the charisma of O'Rourke, so she'll have to show something.
http://www.wect.com/2019/01/02/washington-gov-inslee-running-president/
Governor Inslee announces he is running for the Dem nom on the primary issue of climate change.
I assume this is not a serious candidacy, and is done more to raise the issue, than to actually win the nomination.
Governor Inslee announces he is running for the Dem nom on the primary issue of climate change.
I assume this is not a serious candidacy, and is done more to raise the issue, than to actually win the nomination.
The Commish
Footballguy
Had read where Warren's officially thrown her hat in the ring as well, no?
Yeah - Warren is in.
I am a little nervous about a really large field - I hope it narrows significantly over the summer. Maybe 4-5 real front runners by the time debates hit.
I don't think either have a chance this cycle.
Last time I think Warren had a real chance to unseat Clinton. As much as I like Bernie, I think he only had a chance last time because all the main contenders dropped out early, or never got in the race in deference to Hillary, and her fundraising.
I think Bernie is still in the feeling out stage - I am still on hi mailing list, and the messages seem to be about gauging support - specifically financial support. With a larger field, the grassroots fund raising will be more difficult.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
Bernie does good with policy, minorities (better than Dems minorities thinking of runninng) and people that support Trump. Now if Corporate Dems came around we might have something.
He is old, I will give you that but he can stand up without help, guess that's a plus, right?
timschochet
Footballguy
Second candidate in: Jay Inslee, governor of the State of Washington:
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/jay-inslee-2020-774051/
He wants to be known as the "Climate Candidate". Sounds good to be me. This issue needs to be stressed.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/jay-inslee-2020-774051/
He wants to be known as the "Climate Candidate". Sounds good to be me. This issue needs to be stressed.
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Yeah - I posted that above. I assume he is really only in the race to keep environmental issues in the conversation.
Which, like you, I agree are good to be part of the discussion. I am not a big tree-hugger, but I think it make sense to clean things up - and to generate jobs in emerging industries around new energy cources.
krista4
Footballguy
Is there a distinction between this thread and @squistion's? Genuine question. If not, maybe we could merge the two?
ELIZABETH WARREN SECURES TOP IOWA STAFFERS FOR CAUCUS OPERATION
Although she avoided making the early trips to Iowa during the 2018 cycle, Senator Elizabeth Warren has already secured an impressive line-up of Iowa campaign operatives that will help put her into serious contention for the Iowa Caucus. Her campaign tells Starting Line that Kane Miller, Emily Parcell, Janice Rottenberg and Brendan Summers have all signed on to be part of Warren’s Iowa operation.
The news comes before Warren’s inaugural visit to Iowa this weekend, where she’ll hold events in Des Moines, Council Bluffs, Sioux City and Storm Lake. She announced her official presidential exploratory committee on Monday.
All four of Warren’s hires have the experience to where they could easily serve as state directors for any top-tier candidate, making it particularly noteworthy that Warren was able to recruit all of them. There’s a limited pool of top Iowa staffing talent to go around for the very expansive 2020 field, so taking this group of people off the board so early may put pressure on other potential candidates to speed up their timelines.
Although she avoided making the early trips to Iowa during the 2018 cycle, Senator Elizabeth Warren has already secured an impressive line-up of Iowa campaign operatives that will help put her into serious contention for the Iowa Caucus. Her campaign tells Starting Line that Kane Miller, Emily Parcell, Janice Rottenberg and Brendan Summers have all signed on to be part of Warren’s Iowa operation.
The news comes before Warren’s inaugural visit to Iowa this weekend, where she’ll hold events in Des Moines, Council Bluffs, Sioux City and Storm Lake. She announced her official presidential exploratory committee on Monday.
All four of Warren’s hires have the experience to where they could easily serve as state directors for any top-tier candidate, making it particularly noteworthy that Warren was able to recruit all of them. There’s a limited pool of top Iowa staffing talent to go around for the very expansive 2020 field, so taking this group of people off the board so early may put pressure on other potential candidates to speed up their timelines.
The General
Footballguy
I live in Washington and don’t think I have heard him speak for more than 15 seconds.Sinn Fein said:
I wholeheartedly applaud any reason to bring the environment to the front of the conversation though.
krista4
Footballguy
That's surprising! I've heard him in national interviews on many occasions, including in several over the past year or so where he was asked if he was going to run. I find him impressive in interviews.
fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
I’ve been seeing lists of like 30 Democrats who are likely to run and now there are dudes announcing that weren’t even on the lists. This is gonna get crazy.
The General
Footballguy
It is. Maybe because he has had pretty easy elections here in our state.
I have heard his name floated a bit as a candidate and every time I think how little I know about him.
The General
Footballguy
krista4
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
Crazy is bad.
There is only so much money to go around. And, I think that the Clinton calculus will still be effective - maybe even more so - this year.
Bernie had a huge advantage in fundraising small dollars last cycle - because it was essentially him against the machine. Now, there will be a lot of candidates to attract those small dollars. And, so I think the candidate that nails down the large DNC donors will have a big advantage. Same with locking down the key endorsements.
But the DNC will have to be disciplined - and not let what happened in the GOP play out - where the establishment candidates were picked-off one-by-one.
Having said that, I am impressed that Warren was able to pick up so many key staff in Iowa.
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IC FBGCav
Footballguy
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I think he did two things:
1. He figured out how to fund-raise in small dollar amounts. I think he was helped by having no real competition for those dollars - but he did it very well.
2. He raised issues that really resonated with a large swath of voters.
I think in this cycle, he will struggle to meet the fundraising he did in 2016 - there will be more candidates, but not necessarily more money, so it gets spread around a bit more. I also think he will not be the only champion of progressive issues. So, that will also dilute his support.
You know I was one of Bernies biggest/most vocal supporters on this board, right?
I am just trying to take a neutral look at the field, and I think a lot of factors that led to his success in 2016 are missing now.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
He is the most popular politician in American now and then too.
You know I was one of Bernies biggest/most vocal supporters on this board, right?
I am just trying to take a neutral look at the field, and I think a lot of factors that led to his success in 2016 are missing now.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/1590329002
First result, most popular politician in usa.
First result, most popular politician in usa.
Ok?
I am not sure I agree - then, or now - but lets say you are right - What does that get you?
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I am not "for big donor support"
I think big donor support will be the key to securing the nomination.
YUGE difference.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Lots of local talk (Southern California) recently about Tom Steyer. He hadn’t announced yet but apparently he’s spent over $250 million of his own money building up organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Steyer is currently an asterisk in the polls. He was the guy behind all those “impeach Trump” commercials, but most people have never heard of him.
Steyer is currently an asterisk in the polls. He was the guy behind all those “impeach Trump” commercials, but most people have never heard of him.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
The Commish
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
There is only one thing I'm certain will not happen in 2020, and that is a Trump landslide. He may very well win the election, but if he does it will be either by losing the popular vote but hitting on the Great Lakes White People lottery once again or, if there's an amazing turnaround in his presidency, with a narrow popular vote win. There's zero chance he wins the popular vote by more than 2-3 percent. And he won't get a much bigger electoral college margin than he got in 2016- he basically maxed out in that respect, at best there's maybe 20 possible EC votes he didn't already get in play for him in 2020.
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fatguyinalittlecoat
Footballguy
“Vote for me for President so we can impeach Trump” might not be the most coherent promise.
timschochet
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
How is it even possible to spend that much money and nobody knows who the #### you are?
timschochet
Footballguy
Amazing isn’t it?
I don’t know much about public relations. If one wanted to become a household name in a positive way, and you had unlimited funds to do it, how would you go about it?
timschochet
Footballguy
Anyhow the main problem a guy like Steyer has, even beyond name recognition, is that I strongly doubt that Democratic voters are going to choose a candidate with no political experience. Actually I don’t think Republican voters would do it again.
the moops
Footballguy
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