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KarmaPolice

FanDuel Week 11

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Just started digging in and can’t get off the qb position. There’s like 8 decent qb spots that I like and that’s ignoring Lamar Jackson if he plays (I’ll get him in a few if he starts.) 

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Just started digging in and can’t get off the qb position. There’s like 8 decent qb spots that I like and that’s ignoring Lamar Jackson if he plays (I’ll get him in a few if he starts.) 

I think RG3 will start if Flacco can't go but we'll see.

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12 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

So, is the baller move to do mostly Thurs-Mon and take at least 5 players from the Rams/KC game?

 

Already have a Thurs-Mon GPP L/U that with which I was able to squeeze in both Mahomes & Gurley. Stacked the QB with Watson [assuming he plays] and punting the DEF with SEA.

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12 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

So, is the baller move to do mostly Thurs-Mon and take at least 5 players from the Rams/KC game?

Both games have shootout potential. One of the two T/M games is usually fantasy relevant, but I want a lot of pieces of both.  I am definitely running more Thursday - Monday games this week and i may not have a single player on sunday besides a defense in a few GPP and cash+, if i can budget it.  Will also have players from both games littered throughout a heavier group of cash games for the T-M slate than i normally do. i'll usually do a 5$ 10 man, 2x 2$ 20 man, a 1$ 100 man and a 5$ 50/50 on the T-M slate, probably going to double that amount this week. 

3 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

I think RG3 will start if Flacco can't go but we'll see.

I'd rather see Jackson as the team is falling out of it fast and that would bring some excitement to the team/fans and show them what they got(also show the next potential HC what he can do since Harbaugh is done after this year). Jackson is not deshaun watson, but a watson type effect is very possible. But I digress, I too think RGIII gets the nod. 

Edited by jerseys finest

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6 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Just started digging in and can’t get off the qb position. There’s like 8 decent qb spots that I like and that’s ignoring Lamar Jackson if he plays (I’ll get him in a few if he starts.) 

I thought the same thing, which I can't tell if it's a good thing or a bad thing - I guess it means that ownership might be even more spread out than usual?

My eyes really went to the sub-8K Qbs, especially the group that's together in salary of Luck/Watson/Wentz.   I am very surprised that Philly's team total was only 22.75 when I looked.  I also thought Mariota and Bortles' salaries were a bit low too.   I think if I do a cash LU, Luck or Wentz might get the call for the slight savings of the 8K+ studs.  

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RBs got really interesting, due to the last couple weeks of guys not named Gurley, Hunt, Conner, Barkley, Kamara, and Gordon getting theirs.   Now we need to think about David Johnson vs. Oak, Zeke is in a great spot vs. Atl, Fournette got a lot of work last week and is a cheaper option, and D.Lewis disappointed a lot of people but still saw volume.   Is he a cash play again if that allows you 2 stud RBs and a stud WR like Thomas/OBJ??

 

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First glance for cash

Am I crazy for thinking Eli Manning is a cash option?  O-line looked a little better this week, and they get Tampa.  At 6700 seems like an obvious choice but I honestly think I'm crazy.  

For RB's I'm looking at any of the top10 RB's but my favorites at first glance are Gurley (If you're going through the Monday slate), Zeke, and DJ.  Otherwise I think this is the week to play Dion Lewis.  If you really want to save, Josh Adams is the play, but that's a GPP play, Smallwood might be the cash option, still risky though.

Assuming you pay for RB (which is what I've done all year long, and I don't plan on changing that), the WR's I like to save a bit:  Woods will be 70% or more owned I'm betting, JuJu, Reynolds as a cheap option, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, Tyrell Williams, Corey Davis (yes again), Devin Funchess.

Then depending on where you spend you can possibly fit in Kelce or Ertz if you want, otherwise I really like RSJ this week as a cheap option.

Here is my first attempt to fill out a cash lineup

Eli Manning

Zeke, DJ

Michael Thomas, Funchess, Reynolds

Kelce

Dion Lewis

Bengals (as a placeholder if Flacco can't go) otherwise I'll have to fiddle some more.  

Still leaves me with $500.  But overall I like the look of it so far.  

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9 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

 I am very surprised that Philly's team total was only 22.75 when I looked. 

I agree - The early H-Value on the Saints DEF is the 3rd highest on the Thurs-Mon slate at 28.8. Price - $3300. I think this game too has shootout potential, with Philly also having the weapons to light it up through the air. What does Vegas and FBG know? Is this a matter of concern about the Eagles offensive line?

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Placeholder cash line up (main slate)...

Manning/Gordon, Johnson, Martin/Hopkins, Cooper, Sutton/Howard/Cincy

I was on Barkley and Zeke, but then went to Manning at QB and drifted away from Barkley, but they could be fine together.  I was having trouble finding low dollar WRs that I was comfortable with.  I wanted Hopkins and was also trying to squeeze in Ertz, but it was too much.  I am comfortable with Cooper vs ATL, but that took me off Zeke as well as being able to save a few dollars by going with Johnson.  I am not comfortable with Sutton, but that is what my remaining $$ could buy.  I would love for Conner not to play this week so I can jump all over a cheap as dirt Samuels in order to spruce up my WR group or get Ertz in there.  I will also be watching that BALT situation.  If Jackson gets the call, I may go that direction at QB and go back to Barkley in the RB slot.  So many unknowns right now...

Edited by Galileo

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

First glance for cash

Am I crazy for thinking Eli Manning is a cash option?  O-line looked a little better this week, and they get Tampa.  At 6700 seems like an obvious choice but I honestly think I'm crazy.  

 

Not crazy at all, IMO

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Continuing a strategy in Thu-Mon superflex tournaments: for 25¢ each ticket, you can own both QBs and stars from both teams in potential shootouts, then duplicate those tickets with minor variations.

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14 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Luck/Watson/Wentz.   I am very surprised that Philly's team total was only 22.75 when I looked.

I know I said the same thing last week, but I love Carson Wentz this week.

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Guys I want in tournaments this week:

Wentz, Mariota, Manning, Dion Lewis, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, Doug Martin, Golloday, John Brown, Godwin, Fitzgerald, Doyle, and Jonnu Smith.

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I was all excited to insert Golladay as a surefire #2 WR in tournaments this week. But I have a question I'm too lazy and dumb to answer: who's covering Golladay vs. Carolina? Because remember what happened to Mike Evans a couple of weeks ago in Carolina? I know the narrative that Golden Tate leaving creates more targets for Jones and Golladay. But the flip side of that argument is that Tate is an excellent WR that made it tougher to double team Golladay. 

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I seem to be in the minority, so take it for what it's worth, but I like the Dallas/Atl as a low owned option.  If what I saw and heard was right this week, Julio is projected as the lowest owned studs and Dak and Ryan are both going to be low owned.  I like the idea of Dak/Cooper/Julio and seeing what I can do in other games like the Philly/NO game along with that stack.  

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:lol:  I guess I won't be playing any Thurs-Mon gpps on FD.  Just checked and all that's left is tix contests for anything $3 and under.  

Still surprised they don't keep pumping out smaller gpps after the first ones fill, but I guess it's all about the single game slates for those TNF, SNF, and MNF games?

 

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4 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I was all excited to insert Golladay as a surefire #2 WR in tournaments this week. But I have a question I'm too lazy and dumb to answer: who's covering Golladay vs. Carolina? Because remember what happened to Mike Evans a couple of weeks ago in Carolina? I know the narrative that Golden Tate leaving creates more targets for Jones and Golladay. But the flip side of that argument is that Tate is an excellent WR that made it tougher to double team Golladay. 

Man, a pod just talked about how Golladay is projected to be in the top 5 for ownership on the week.  Probably just my bias against him b/c when I am talked into him he has sucked, but if true, I would rather have others in his price range for lower ownership.  

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I am just not feeling the WR position at all this week.  I don't really feel confident about any of them in cash.  I have been getting piss poor production out of my WR choices all year even when feeling good about them, so this week scares me.

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Man, a pod just talked about how Golladay is projected to be in the top 5 for ownership on the week.  Probably just my bias against him b/c when I am talked into him he has sucked, but if true, I would rather have others in his price range for lower ownership.  

I like Golladay's talent, but I'm not yet convinced Detroit can scheme to get him separation without Golden Tate.

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

:lol:  I guess I won't be playing any Thurs-Mon gpps on FD.  Just checked and all that's left is tix contests for anything $3 and under.  

Still surprised they don't keep pumping out smaller gpps after the first ones fill, but I guess it's all about the single game slates for those TNF, SNF, and MNF games?

 

Yeah, this is horse do-do.

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8 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I like Golladay's talent, but I'm not yet convinced Detroit can scheme to get him separation without Golden Tate.

He had 13 targets last week and jones didn’t practice yesterday. I’ve been talking you into golladay probably so I’ll just point out those facts.

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Sneaky plays in Detroit

Theo Riddick and especially the TE. Jones already banged up, probably not playing. Scheme will be to pressure stafford and shut down galloday I think, (could still have a big game, just don’t love him for a huge game, price is nice) Carolina is one of the worst at defending the TE. Roberts is the go to if he plays and he’s cheap, 4500 I think. Toilolo is the only other healthy TE on the roster, so would start if Roberts can’t go. Only 4000. Stanford will need to get the ball out quick.  TE is a punt play after ertz and Kelce usually. I’m going cheap in Detroit some this week. 

 

*EDIT* Luke Willson is also in play for DET. 4400. Also super cheap. He may fall right into the starting spot. Just back this week. Limited practices most of the week, but could very well play. 

Edited by jerseys finest
info update
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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

He had 13 targets last week and jones didn’t practice yesterday. I’ve been talking you into golladay probably so I’ll just point out those facts.

:hifive:

 

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What are we liking tonight? 

Have Rodgers, Adams, MVS, Vannett and Dougie Fresh right now. 

Not even bothering with Seattle's backfield carousel. Rodgers and Adams are sure fire. But I've been doing well with double QB Thursday so thinking of swapping in Russ. 

Edited by Elevencents

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For Main Slate:

I like

QBs: Brees, Wentz, L. Jackson

RB: studs, Adams, Collins (may swap out if Flacco doesn't play)

WR: Thomas, Golladay, Matthews, OBJ, Aghlor

TE: Ertz, James, Toiloi

DEF: Bengals, Pitt

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Tonight:

I like both QBs but it leaves me limited.  I played with gambling on a Seattle RB since they are reasonably priced, but not sure I like it either.  

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46 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Tonight:

I like both QBs but it leaves me limited.  I played with gambling on a Seattle RB since they are reasonably priced, but not sure I like it either.  

I said F-it and put a couple placeholders in for a cheap gpp.  

It really feels like both of these teams want to run the ball though, so I am having trouble with this tonight.  

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What I was thinking is that if you start with a core of Wilson (probably in MVP), Jones, and Lockett  that leaves 8750/player for the last 2 and could add in a couple of:  Graham, Moore, Baldwin, PKs, Vannett.   

IF we go dual QBs, I could see:

Rodgers MVP + Wilson/Graham/MVS/Vannett

I think it gets a bit thin if you do Wilson in the MVP and try to fit 2 pass catchers b/c I think Lockett is the best option and is pricey.  

 

:shrug:

 

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30 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I said F-it and put a couple placeholders in for a cheap gpp.  

It really feels like both of these teams want to run the ball though, so I am having trouble with this tonight.  

Yeah, I think most defenses are above average so the kickers option is okay.  I like A Jones, but his price is a lot for a decent def.  I don't know who to go with as Seattle RB but would guess Carson.

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8 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

Yeah, I think most defenses are above average so the kickers option is okay.  I like A Jones, but his price is a lot for a decent def.  I don't know who to go with as Seattle RB but would guess Carson.

Safe is Carson, gpp is Penny? 

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Yeah I think Carson gets bulk of carries but contrian is Penny.  Problem is I believe there salary is so close together you don't save much going contrarian which would make it the ultimate GPP play.

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On 11/15/2018 at 3:07 PM, smbkrypt24 said:

Aghlor

Love Nelson this week.

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Well, here is my current version of the truth for cash...

Manning/Elliott, McCaffrey, David Johnson/Hopkins, Davis, T. Smith/Reed/Cincy

Tre'Quan Smith is sketchy for cash play with so many other weapons in NO, but at $4900 he allows me to totally stack the RB slot and still be able to afford an elite WR in Hopkins.

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Man, I just saw something predicting Golladay as the 4th highest owned WR on the week. :oldunsure:  Anyway, here are some gpp ramblings for the week:

Again, mainly just looking for lower owned pivots, and by all means get those NO/NYG/AZ guys in there. 

QB:  I still think the low % plays here are the QBs in the Dal/Atl game if you like that one.  I also think Luck will be the less popular QB in that game.  Seeing how I lean home QBs usually, I think it's Ryan/Luck/Brees the main guys for me with Wentz as the 4th. 

RB:  Besides M.Thomas and Ertz, this is probably the best place to get lower ownership as it's probably the highest concentration of % with the studs.  The problem this week is guessing who is going to be high owned.  My guess is Barkley, Zeke, DJ, and Lewis??     Gordon usually seems lowered owned, and I guess McCaffrey is lost in the bunch a bit too.  I think those RBs in the Pitts/Jax could be underowned and those are some high volume guys.   Low low darts might be Miller, Mack, and Lindsay?

WR:  I think Thomas will be hella owned, and OBJ will be the other stud at the top.  I think C.Davis could be a popular cheaper guy and Golladay with Marvin out.   SO - the WR1 pivots (if you want to risk a Thomas-less LU) might be Allen/Hopkins/Brown/Julio.   In general, I think secondary WRs in the big games could be an interesting way to go as well.   T.Smith, Shepard, D.Jax/Godwin/Humphries, Agholor/Tate, etc..       You could still do the stud RBs with a core like Julio/T.Smith/D.Jax/Shepard and go with the owned RBs.   Super low darts might be the Balt WRs?

main guys I like this week for gpps are Hilton/Jeffery/Cooper/Shepard/secondary TB WRs.  

TE:   it probably comes down to whether you Ertz or don't Ertz.   Maybe guys like Doyle/Engram/Howard will be slightly lower owned, or just dumpster dive.  

 

 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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13 hours ago, Galileo said:

Well, here is my current version of the truth for cash...

Manning/Elliott, McCaffrey, David Johnson/Hopkins, Davis, T. Smith/Reed/Cincy

Tre'Quan Smith is sketchy for cash play with so many other weapons in NO, but at $4900 he allows me to totally stack the RB slot and still be able to afford an elite WR in Hopkins.

Hmmmm...keep listening to so many pumping Dion Lewis.  Indy is giving up a bunch to pass catching RBs.  I am also not sold on Eli (just like his price), and am thinking of getting that action against Tampa through ODB instead... came up with this as an alternative:

Mariota/Elliott, David Johnson, Lewis/Hopkins, ODB, T. Smith/Reed/Cincy

I am too indecisive to play this damn game.  Still have the Smith problem.  I think I like the greater certainty of the stud RBs in the first lineup over the extra stud WR.   The more I stare at Reed, the less confident I get in him also... ugh.

Edited by Galileo

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Decisions made.  I have 10 Lus, 3 in SEs and 7 in one gpp.  Going 1 Brees, 2 Wentz, 3 Ryan, and 4 Luck.    I think I stuck with players mentioned above for the most part.  A couple examples:

Wentz - Gordon/Zeke - Jeffery/Agholor/T.Smith - RSJ - Kamara - Wash

Luck - Barkley/Kamara - Hilton/T.Smith/Shepard - Etz - Snead - Wash

 

I do have 1 or 2 without Philly/NO players at all, but I figured something like the top LU got a game stack without the 2 top owned players, and the bottom one had combos from NYG/NO, but has a lower owned Luck along with it.  Going to try to stop tinkering too much now, or work on my DK variations.  

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Here's my weekly "first stab" LU that I come up with on Tuesday or Wed, prior to listening to any podcasts.

Brees - David Johnson / Alex Collins - Thomas / Tre'Qyuan Smith  / OBJ / OJ Howard / C Kirk / Cardinals

  • Saints and Cardinals super stacks
  • I'm a Bengals homer who watches all of their (often terrible) games.  I don't see how Collins can fail this week, no matter who plays QB for Ravens
  • Love OJ Howards' talent and matchup.  Did you see how badly Kittle roasted the Giants on Monday?  Hoping for low ownership, as he burned us last week.  Might see more red zone targets if Godwin scratches.

Concerns:

  • This LU goes against the tried and true "pay up for stud RB, pay down at QB and WR" formula
  • Now that I have listened to pods, I have to admit that I will probably swap in Riddick for Kirk at flex for same price tag.

           

Edited by Church of Iggy Pop
typo

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Couple things I was looking at and posted in the DK thread, but I dug deeper and went down a little stat rabbit hole.  Here are a couple things I wrote down as I was trying to narrow down QBs and specifically looking at Brees and Luck.  

Teams with the most pass attempts in their last 3 games:  Det, NYG, Balt, Atl, TB, Az, Jax, Philly

Teams with the most RZ pass attempts on the year:  NO, Indy, LaR, KC, NYG, NE, Pitt, Houst, GB, Balt

the two that stuck out were Brees and Luck b/c in the last 3 weeks they aren't passing very much.  Brees just 28 attempts/g, and Luck 27/g.  With Ingram and Mack in the picture, their attempts have dropped quite a bit, they are just efficient and pass a lot in the RZ.    The other that stuck out was Eli, and that will be continued in the next stat I looked at.  I took a peek at teams' play calling, and found a chart of % of passing plays for teams in different situations.  What I looked at was season average vs. the last 3 games and their home vs. road %s.  

 

Teams passing a lot more lately vs. season average:  Det (69 vs. 63.5%), Dallas (63 vs. 56%), Rams (62 vs. 54.5%) 

Teams passing a bit less the last few games vs. season average:  Houst (41% vs. 54), NO (44% vs. 53.5), Indy (45% vs 63), Pitts (56% vs. 64),  Minn (61 vs. 66).  

 

Like I said, I also looked at the % that teams passed on the road vs. home, and here are a few that really jumped out and Capply for this week:

NYG = 72.73% at home, 65% away

Cinci - 67.67% away, 62.33% home

Chargers - 60% home vs. 53% away

NO - 60% home vs. 49% away

Dallas - 60% away vs. 50% home

Carolina - 69% away vs. 47% home

 

A couple teams on the negative side of that - Atl passes 9% less at home, Tenn and Houst pass about 4-5% less on the road.  

 

 

 

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Anyone using Larry Fitzgerald today?  He's 8 catches away from passing Jerry Rice for the most receptions with one team.  I could see him getting a lot of looks today.

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It crossed my mind through the week, but I am using Johnson and don't really want to invest heavily in the Arizona offense even if they are playing Oakland.

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On 11/13/2018 at 10:14 PM, jdoggydogg said:

I love Carson Wentz this week.

How's that call look now, sparky?

 

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I ended up with this line up in cash...

Jackson/Elliott, McCaffrey, David Johnson/ODB, D. Thomas, T. Smith/Reed/New Orleans - 149.00 pts!!

Thomas was a dud putting up a goose egg, but the rest of the line up was solid enough to cover for it! 

$24 into twelve 50/50 contests...$43.20 out.  Pay lines ranged from 118.74 to 124.94.

 

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

How's that call look now, sparky?

 

Right there with you.  I didn't have many LUs with NO players where I wasn't bringing it back with all the Philly players who duded (which was all of them.).   Way too heavy on the Eagles side of the game this week.    I had a ton of Jeffery and Wentz and a lot of Agholor and Ertz. 

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51 minutes ago, Galileo said:

I ended up with this line up in cash...

Jackson/Elliott, McCaffrey, David Johnson/ODB, D. Thomas, T. Smith/Reed/New Orleans - 149.00 pts!!

Thomas was a dud putting up a goose egg, but the rest of the line up was solid enough to cover for it! 

$24 into twelve 50/50 contests...$43.20 out.  Pay lines ranged from 118.74 to 124.94.

 

Nice job! 

I would have said you were crazy to roll out Jackson.  Instead you could have been rockin' Wentz and Mariota LUs like me!.  ;)

 

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On 11/17/2018 at 5:52 PM, Church of Iggy Pop said:

Here's my weekly "first stab" LU that I come up with on Tuesday or Wed, prior to listening to any podcasts.

Brees - David Johnson / Alex Collins - Thomas / Tre'Quan Smith  / OBJ / OJ Howard / C Kirk / Cardinals

  • Saints and Cardinals super stacks
  • I'm a Bengals homer who watches all of their (often terrible) games.  I don't see how Collins can fail this week, no matter who plays QB for Ravens

           

Uh, where the #%@& did this Gus Edwards guy come from?  :angry:  ( I know, Rutgers LOL ) Edwards got 17 carries to Collins' 7 and I got damned lucky to escape with that early Collins TD before Edwards really took over the running game.

LU was otherwise solid cashing in GPPs at 144.12 with Kirk, and 134.42 with Riddick  

 

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45 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Nice job! 

I would have said you were crazy to roll out Jackson.  Instead you could have been rockin' Wentz and Mariota LUs like me!.  ;)

 

I thought I was crazy too.  It was a last minute call when I heard he was the man.  I figured he had a decent floor due to the rushing yardage he should get and I was hoping he would find the end zone once or twice.  I actually weakened my team slightly with this call as I replaced Manning with him.  Manning scored 17.14 to Jackson's 16.7. :lmao:  It wasn't a spectacular fantasy day for him, but it was enough to keep me afloat.  

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59 in. 37 cash back.  

(1) $25 ticket

(5) $5 ticket

(1) $8

(1) $9

Total $67 in Tickets.  So slight win for me this week.  Better than I thought I did while watching the games.

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