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KarmaPolice

Draftkings Week 11

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Damn, what an interesting week.  Like I said in the other thread - the RB explosion makes in really interesting.  

Really like the core of Barkley, Zeke, Gordon, McCaffrey, and DJ this week.  BUT that still leaves a too cheap for their carries Conner, Fournette, and D.Lewis out and Kamara/Ingram.  

On top of that, if we do 3 of those, we probably can get in a stud WR which seems to be a mistake the last few weeks.  

 

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Put together a fast cash idea for main slate:

Cam - Zeke/DJ/D.Lewis - Hopkins/Hilton/Agholor - O'shuanessy - Jax

I might stare at that more, and see if there is a better combo than Cam/Hopkins -  

 

I am getting to the point where if I am not paying for Kelce/Ertz, I am just going to go dirt cheap at TE to fit in other places - same with defense.  

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Put together a fast cash idea for main slate:

Cam - Zeke/DJ/D.Lewis - Hopkins/Hilton/Agholor - O'shuanessy - Jax

I might stare at that more, and see if there is a better combo than Cam/Hopkins -  

 

I am getting to the point where if I am not paying for Kelce/Ertz, I am just going to go dirt cheap at TE to fit in other places - same with defense.  

Similar to the FD one I posted but my first thought on cash for Sunday.  

Eli

Zeke, Barkley, DJ 

Agholor, Corey Davis, Moncrief

RSJ

Bengals

I have Dion in another one right now which like you said allows you to spend more at WR, just not sure how I feel about it yet.  Or which I'd rather go with.  So I'm posting the one that differs a little.  I wouldn't touch Jacksonville Defense in cash though.  Steelers are surging and they have weapons galore, not a recipe for good production.

 

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8 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Similar to the FD one I posted but my first thought on cash for Sunday.  

Eli

Zeke, Barkley, DJ 

Agholor, Corey Davis, Moncrief

RSJ

Bengals

I have Dion in another one right now which like you said allows you to spend more at WR, just not sure how I feel about it yet.  Or which I'd rather go with.  So I'm posting the one that differs a little.  I wouldn't touch Jacksonville Defense in cash though.  Steelers are surging and they have weapons galore, not a recipe for good production.

 

I get you.  I am just to the point where all my D picks lately get 4pts, so I figure I should pay as little as possible for that type of production so I look at cheap home Ds.  More of a frustration pick.  

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59 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

If Koetter keeps calling plays for the Bucs, I'm rolling with the Giants D. 

Yeah, that was a big part of the equation last weekend.  

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Yeah, that was a big part of the equation last weekend.  

seriously I wish we knew that before kickoff. I would have swapped Bucs players out of every lineup and started the Skins D. They set a record for 500+ total yards and only 3 pts.  

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Quick thoughts as I wrote down my stats and info this week:

- for QB in cash I am thinking about either Ryan or Dak.   Both are actually trending up on the pass attempts the last few weeks.  Ryan has only missed 3x one week this season.  

- still not sure how you get away from the studs this week.   I THINK D.Lewis is an option in the flex so you can get a stud WR in the LU.  

-  for WRs Hopkins, Cooper, Davis, K.Allen, and Jeffery feel too cheap on DK this week for their ratings.  

-  it's hard to pay for Ertz in cash with that matchup (NO is good vs. TEs on the year), so like I said above it's a dumpster dive week.  O'Shaunessy might be my punt since his targets have increased and he has a decent matchup.  

-  DT I will probably shift off Jax to NYG for a cheap option.  

 

 

 

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Was listening to a pod about DK cash LUs and they suggested going with both Kamara and Ingram in cash instead of bothering with D.Lewis.  Seemed weird, but their point was the TD equity that Ingram has.  :shrug:

 Their basic points:

  • pay for 2 of: Kamara/Gordon/Zeke   they leaned the 1st 2.  
  • go down to Hopkins b/c of savings for the WR1 UNLESS the Philly CB is out, then Thomas gets the nod.
  • IF you want to play Ertz, maybe do K.Allen + Ertz, otherwise try Hopkins + low TE like McDonald/J.Smith
  • look at a Wash WR for savings - Crowder or Harris?
  • Wentz holds the ball a bit and takes sacks, and can be int prone, so NO Def is super cheap and unlocks being able to pay up for 3 studs
  • look for WRs in the Funchess/C.Davis range for the rest.  

 

Not sure what that leaves for QB, but I will play with this idea on my break I think.   Can't be worse than what I have been putting together.  

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I really want to play the Watson/Hopkins stack this week. But may move off it if Watson estimated ownership is over 5%. Hopkins will be heavily owned in the top 5 for WR. 

Also it looks like Dion Lewis ownership may exceed last week's levels. 

 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

I really want to play the Watson/Hopkins stack this week. But may move off it if Watson estimated ownership is over 5%. Hopkins will be heavily owned in the top 5 for WR. 

Also it looks like Dion Lewis ownership may exceed last week's levels. 

 

@TwinTurbo - one spot I saw had Watson as the 4th highest owned on the slate and Hopkins as 2nd highest WR.   I was kind of surprised by that.  

One pod suggested for gpps to start by getting off the top couple high owned RBs b/c they usually have the highest ownership of the positions.  Not sure how to figure out who the tops on the slate will be since they all seem to be grouped together.   One place to start would be a pivot off D.Lewis, but that's hard at that cheap level.   I guess it would be Miller, Lindsay, Richard, or Riddick?

The other idea I had is that if a combo like Kamara/Zeke/D.Lewis is going to be popular this week,  Conner/D.Johnson/Fournette is 100 off of that price, so taking 3 mid salary RBs with upside might be a way be different, or just dropping to two of them with upside.  

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22 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@TwinTurbo - one spot I saw had Watson as the 4th highest owned on the slate and Hopkins as 2nd highest WR.   I was kind of surprised by that.  

One pod suggested for gpps to start by getting off the top couple high owned RBs b/c they usually have the highest ownership of the positions.  Not sure how to figure out who the tops on the slate will be since they all seem to be grouped together.   One place to start would be a pivot off D.Lewis, but that's hard at that cheap level.   I guess it would be Miller, Lindsay, Richard, or Riddick?

The other idea I had is that if a combo like Kamara/Zeke/D.Lewis is going to be popular this week,  Conner/D.Johnson/Fournette is 100 off of that price, so taking 3 mid salary RBs with upside might be a way be different, or just dropping to two of them with upside.  

The top 2 owned RBs will probably be Dion and DJ. Elliott and Barkley may crack the top 2 as well. If you pivot off Dion, that leaves guys like L.Miller or Alex Collins for similar RB $, or maybe Crabtree in the flex. He had 10 targets last time they played the Bengals. 

I'm also a bit surprised that Watson/Hopkins are projected to be so highly owned. I will keep a few lineups but have to reduce that stack now in gpp. 

Looking at Bortles or Josh Rosen now and not feeling great about it. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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15 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

The top 2 owned RBs will probably be Dion and DJ. Elliott and Barkley may crack the top 2 as well. If you pivot off Dion, that leaves guys like L.Miller or Alex Collins for similar RB $, or maybe Crabtree in the flex. He had 10 targets last time they played the Bengals. 

I'm also a bit surprised that Watson/Hopkins are projected to be so highly owned. I will keep a few lineups but have to reduce that stack now in gpp. 

Looking at Bortles or Josh Rosen now and not feeling great about it. 

I keep landing on the 5.2k with Dak and Eli.  Of the "studs" I am looking at Ryan for lower ownership.  

I just can't get a peg on the RBs.  My assumption going into the week was that Barkley, Zeke, and D.Johnson would be the popular guys since Gordon seems lower owned every week and Philly rush D is decent (except last week I guess), so thought Kamara might dip lower.  Also thought Lewis would be unpopular since he burnt a lot of people last week.

A projection I saw had Kamara, Lewis, Conner, and McCaffrey as the top 4, and I was very surprised to see that, but would love it if it's true since I like the others I listed above more.  

ETA:  I also keep going back to the pods repeating that for gpps WR probably should be in the flex a majority of the time.   I assume if Lewis is high owned, it's because he is in the flex and people pay up for 2 other Rbs.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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15 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I keep landing on the 5.2k with Dak and Eli.  Of the "studs" I am looking at Ryan for lower ownership.  

I just can't get a peg on the RBs.  My assumption going into the week was that Barkley, Zeke, and D.Johnson would be the popular guys since Gordon seems lower owned every week and Philly rush D is decent (except last week I guess), so thought Kamara might dip lower.  Also thought Lewis would be unpopular since he burnt a lot of people last week.

A projection I saw had Kamara, Lewis, Conner, and McCaffrey as the top 4, and I was very surprised to see that, but would love it if it's true since I like the others I listed above more.  

ETA:  I also keep going back to the pods repeating that for gpps WR probably should be in the flex a majority of the time.   I assume if Lewis is high owned, it's because he is in the flex and people pay up for 2 other Rbs.  

The position in the flex really doesn't matter. Last week's MM winner had Aaron Jones in the flex. Double TE can win too although it's much less common. You just need to pick a guy that can score 30+

Edited by TwinTurbo

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19 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

The position in the flex really doesn't matter. Last week's MM winner had Aaron Jones in the flex. Double TE can win too although it's much less common. You just need to pick a guy that can score 30+

Fair enough points.  

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On 11/15/2018 at 9:36 PM, KarmaPolice said:

@TwinTurbo - one spot I saw had Watson as the 4th highest owned on the slate and Hopkins as 2nd highest WR.   I was kind of surprised by that.  

One pod suggested for gpps to start by getting off the top couple high owned RBs b/c they usually have the highest ownership of the positions.  Not sure how to figure out who the tops on the slate will be since they all seem to be grouped together.   One place to start would be a pivot off D.Lewis, but that's hard at that cheap level.   I guess it would be Miller, Lindsay, Richard, or Riddick?

The other idea I had is that if a combo like Kamara/Zeke/D.Lewis is going to be popular this week,  Conner/D.Johnson/Fournette is 100 off of that price, so taking 3 mid salary RBs with upside might be a way be different, or just dropping to two of them with upside.  

Watson now projected back under 7% ownership. I'm going back to the Watson/Hopkins stack for a few more lineups.

Brees is the obvious play in cash and gpp. I don't see how you can move off him. Both Cam and Brees may approach 15% ownership. I like Brees way more, but Cam has a nice matchup too. 

Saquan, Kamara, DJ, Dion Lewis all projecting over 20% ownership. Saquan may approach 30%. Those are your 4 top RBs for ownership. 

The Brees/Kamara/Thomas stack will be popular but it's really difficult to fit Thomas in at his price. That said, all the Philly starting corners are out. Is there a better option on the main slate for 90 pt upside from 3 players from the same team? Eli/Barkley/Beckham? Rivers/Gordon/Allen?

Edited by TwinTurbo

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6 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

Watson now projected back under 7% ownership. I'm going back to the Watson/Hopkins stack for a few more lineups.

Brees is the obvious play in cash and gpp. I don't see how you can move off him. Both Cam and Brees may approach 15% ownership. I like Brees way more, but Cam has a nice matchup too. 

Saquan, Kamara, DJ, Dion Lewis all projecting over 20% ownership. Saquan may approach 30%. Those are your 4 top RBs for ownership. 

The Brees/Kamara/Thomas stack will be popular but it's really difficult to fit Thomas in at his price. That said, all the Philly starting corners are out. Is there a better option on the main slate for 90 pt upside from 3 players from the same team? Eli/Barkley/Beckham? Rivers/Gordon/Allen?

My usual reason is ownership for gpp.  The stud RBs and WRs are heavy owned for a reason, but it's harder to make up that production and get a lower owned guy.  Qb scoring is a bit flatter, so it's a good spot to get the lower owned guy.  I think Ryan is just as likely to hit 4-5X as Brees, but has about 1/7th the ownership projected.  

On the topic of Brees, one thing that makes me a tad nervous is Philly just lost to Dallas at home and Zeke destroyed them, and there is a decent shot that NO gets up quick and is able to run the ball like they want to.  They are next level efficient with the attempts, but since Ingram came back Brees doesn't throw nearly as much.  The last 3 weeks he's only averaging 28 attempts/game, which is about 19th for Qbs during that time.  Like I said, they are hyper-efficient attempts since Thomas is catching 90% of his targets, but I do wonder if that limits his upside a tad, especially considering he is the most expensive and projected to be the highest owned.  

:shrug:

 

ETA:  Just looked at a chart, and on the year NO passes 53.54% of the time, but over the last 3 weeks, it's dropped to 44.16% - good for 2nd lowest in the league behind Houston during that time.    The team right above them is Indy, and Luck is somebody that I liked this week and it's making me stare a that a little now too.  

The top teams on the list for the last 3 weeks were:  Det, NYG, Balt, Atl, TB, AZ, Jax, Philly

 

 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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In an addition to the above rambling post, it makes a little more sense now that I just looked that the QBs with the most RZ passing attempts on the season:

Brees, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Eli, Brady, Ben, Watson, Rodgers, Flacco.  

 

I hate these lists, because it's making me think about Eli who I hate with a passion.  

 

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27 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Oof.  Going to need some help this week.  Tried 4 cash lus, pretty sure 0 have the highly owned Barkley.  

I got lots of shares of Barkley But too many of Conner too. And I'm never picking Dion Lewis ever again. Basically just have to hope for garbage points from Lewis and it's not even halftime yet. 

I feel good about fading the Falcons/Cowboys players. I mostly went with late games, lots of Saints, Cardinals, Chargers. So I still have a shot. 

Edited by TwinTurbo

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I'm never going Dion Lewis again

Never again. I ended up reducing exposure a bit before kickoff but Lewis and Conner will torpedo most of my lineups with Barkley. 

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15 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Also you just have to love the experts' TE sleeper pick of Ricky Seals-Jones with a big fat zero at halftime. 

I'd rather pay 2.9 for his 0 than 6.6 for Ertzs 1pt at halftime. 

A lot of players from that PhillyNo game sinking a lot of lineups.  

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33 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Also you just have to love the experts' TE sleeper pick of Ricky Seals-Jones with a big fat zero at halftime. 

I'm ok with still paying for RSJ which I did really early in the week.  I could afford Barkley and Zeke that way.  Too bad I didn't have both in any lineup...

What's really sinking me this week is my WR choices though.  Glad I went to Coutee late, but unfortunately I went Corey Davis and Westbrook around that as well... 

I seem to be getting worse at this as the weeks go on, maybe because my devotion to it is waning but still.  

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17 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I'd rather pay 2.9 for his 0 than 6.6 for Ertzs 1pt at halftime. 

A lot of players from that PhillyNo game sinking a lot of lineups.  

I had Reed or Seals-Jones in 90% of my lineups. Reed hit and Seals-Jones missed. Saints players are giving me a chance to at least break even or better. I was all-in on Brees stacks. 

But Conner, Lewis, Seals-Jones, Agholor, Crabtree, Cards D are sinking the other half of my lineups. 

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5 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I'm ok with still paying for RSJ which I did really early in the week.  I could afford Barkley and Zeke that way.  Too bad I didn't have both in any lineup...

What's really sinking me this week is my WR choices though.  Glad I went to Coutee late, but unfortunately I went Corey Davis and Westbrook around that as well... 

I seem to be getting worse at this as the weeks go on, maybe because my devotion to it is waning but still.  

Same here. I faded Zeke in all of my Barkley lineups. Didn't get both in the same lineup. Way too many Barkley + Conner teams. 

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Cashed my $5 double up by .14 but nothing in my gpps. Too much Lewis, Agholar,Funchess, McCaffrey and Cooper. Cash lineup was saved by Barkley,Reed and Hou D.

$8.25 in $10 out.

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