Keeper league playoff strategy fireside chat (1 Viewer)

So, I assume many sharkamaniacs here play in keeper leagues.  Anywhere from 1-4,   Or something like that.  Not talking dynasty here.  

Question for the pool is this:  how much are you willing to mortgage this year for a shot at winning it all?   

Every year in our 8/10 footballguy level competitive league (keep 2), the cream starts to rise to the top right a round now (week 11).  This is a a 15 year old 12 team league with shockingly little turnover in that time.  I think in the 15 years we’ve had 4 new owners.  

Anyhoo, trade deadline is this Monday and there are clearly haves and have nots.  Three of us are 8-2 at the top and then there is a joke team at 6-4 (Mahomes) and everyone else is under .500.  Six teams make the playoffs, top two get a bye.  

We also run a toilet bowl tourney where the bottom six teams compete for the first overall pick next year.  We just implemented this last year to avoid tanking.  It works well. Guys are engaged. 

Having said that, have nots are still prepared to deal for picks, toilet bowl be damned.  

I made these moves this week with following roster (PPR, no mandatory TE, plus a flex)

Watson/Trubisky

Kamara/Conner/Lindsay/Collins (barf)

Thomas/Golladay/Ebron/Brown

kicker/d

traded my 1st rounder next year for a 3rd back and a rofr on non keepers for Antonio Brown.  Then traded my 3rd for a 5th for Diggs with a second rofr (after first guy picks).  

Question is this:  do you think trading these picks next year is worth it?   My view is that the draft is such a crap shoot that you might as well swing for the fences.  

I did this last year (lost in the final) and had a rough draft.  But so many picks are busts anyway, and I managed to cobble my way out of it anyway.  

My view is that it is worth it.  Fantasy football titles are not won at the draft in most cases.  

What are others doing in this situation?

rofr?

ex-ghost said:

rofr?

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Meaning the team I traded with can match any deal I make (for picks next year) if I move a non-keeper in the off-season.  

rofr=right of first refusal

The answer is yes, in a league where you keep any fewer than say 5 players and especially where you only keep 2, you dump future picks to stack your roster and make a run at a championship. 

Bottom line is no one is going to have a huge advantage when you only keep 2. As long as you’re a sharp owner and you’re able to keep 2 first round caliber studs, you will be able to cobble it together every year. Gotta go for it all when you have the chance because frankly if you don’t the others contender(s) will and then you’re liable to always to a top team but always come up just short.

my approach has usually been to wait out the first round of selling (usually happens around week 6-8). This way the price goes down as there are fewer buyers with premium picks left.  Then I’ll try to package a few keepers that I can’t use with 3rd or later picks for top 10 RBs or WRs. I typically try not to trade a 1st or 2nd as most years there are about 15 great players available and then it gets dicey with all the keepers.

This year I jumped the gun and spent a 2nd on Dalvin Cook when I thought he was getting healthy so I mostly stayed out of the flurry of buying and selling that has gone on since then.  I did trade a 9th plus hunter Henry for gronk.  Rolling the dice that he gets healthy post bye week.

To answer your actual question, yes buying is worth it.  Every year there are so many teams that sell, thinking next year they will dominate with all these studs.  Almost never works out.

In my experience these leagues play out like redraft leagues, except the ability to turn the page and look to next year keeps the non-contenders somewhat interested (until they’ve sold off all of their non-keepers). But because they have incentive to sell any player they won’t keep, the good teams get really stacked and the middle of the road teams (who are not quite good enough to truly contend but not so bad that they commit to selling) are stuck in purgatory. 

No matter how many draft picks the sellers acquire, however, theyre really only set up for a one year run (assuming they draft really well) at most, since they can still only keep 2 players.

At the end of the day the best and most knowledgeable owners are likely to be the only ones who can consistently make the playoffs and contend year after year. 

Have lots of similarities, very long running 12 team league (1999), most been in the league the majority of the time and most all are sharks.  The only real difference from what you describe is we’re an auction league.   Having said that I’ve faced what you were saying many times.  I’ve won three of the last five years and in almost every year I make a big trade to swing for the championship and sacrifice future keepers (did again this year).   

Trust in your ability to draft, work the waiver wire and in making trades when necessary.   

mjb03003 said:

In my experience these leagues play out like redraft leagues, except the ability to turn the page and look to next year keeps the non-contenders somewhat interested (until they’ve sold off all of their non-keepers). But because they have incentive to sell any player they won’t keep, the good teams get really stacked and the middle of the road teams (who are not quite good enough to truly contend but not so bad that they commit to selling) are stuck in purgatory. 

No matter how many draft picks the sellers acquire, however, theyre really only set up for a one year run (assuming they draft really well) at most, since they can still only keep 2 players.

At the end of the day the best and most knowledgeable owners are likely to be the only ones who can consistently make the playoffs and contend year after year. 

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Good post.  I note, however, that the teams who sell will unload guys they would otherwise keep because they ultimately get the rofr, which generally ends up being someone on the same tier.   As an example, someone traded me Brown this year with the prospect of getting Thomas or Conner back next year. 

zoonation said:

Good post.  I note, however, that the teams who sell will unload guys they would otherwise keep because they ultimately get the rofr, which generally ends up being someone on the same tier.   As an example, someone traded me Brown this year with the prospect of getting Thomas or Conner back next year. 

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This ROFR is not a concept I'm familiar with, nor do I think it's commonly used. It's probably a smart addition to leagues like this but it sounds like it would be something you have to manually track which could get messy. 

To answer the OP's question - agree with mjb that yes it's well worth it in these type of keeper leagues to sell off draft picks/position to go all in on the current season. It's what all the contenders to do and standing pat as a contender puts you at a disadvantage. Non-contenders send off non-keepers for draft picks and contenders send off draft picks for the strong non-keepers to boost their chances on the current season. It's how these leagues work. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum I'm a non-contender in my keeper league this year but have my keepers set for next year. I've been selling off my assets and getting extra picks for next year's draft. The final move I made this week before our trade deadline was trading off the Denver and Cincy defenses (they play Oakland in week 15 and 16) that I picked up as FA's last week to a contender and flipping a 4th round pick in next year's draft for a 3rd round pick. Got a little more value for next year picking off scraps from the trash heap.

oldmanhawkins said:

my approach has usually been to wait out the first round of selling (usually happens around week 6-8). This way the price goes down as there are fewer buyers with premium picks left.  Then I’ll try to package a few keepers that I can’t use with 3rd or later picks for top 10 RBs or WRs. I typically try not to trade a 1st or 2nd as most years there are about 15 great players available and then it gets dicey with all the keepers.

This year I jumped the gun and spent a 2nd on Dalvin Cook when I thought he was getting healthy so I mostly stayed out of the flurry of buying and selling that has gone on since then.  I did trade a 9th plus hunter Henry for gronk.  Rolling the dice that he gets healthy post bye week.

To answer your actual question, yes buying is worth it.  Every year there are so many teams that sell, thinking next year they will dominate with all these studs.  Almost never works out.

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Then they end up selling against next year, and the year after that, and the year after that.......I find most people in sell mode are always playing for "next year"....and next year never comes.

Update (because I know you all care!). The whole league, with the exception of four teams has thrown in the towel.  Top three (all 8-2) have made moves.  

I am rolling with:

Watson/Trubisky 

Kamara/Conner/Lindsay

A. Brown/Thomas/Diggs/Golladay

Lutz

Bears/Vikings/Texans/Broncos (for matchups in playoffs)

Team 2:

Goff

Gurley/Fournette/D. Martin

Hill/Adams/Ertz/Sanders

Crosby

Streamer D

Team 3:

Luck/Wilson

Saquon/Hunt/McCaffrey

juju/Thielen/Cooks/ARob

the Leg

streamer D

No clear favourite IMO.  watch one of the other three playoff teams win it!

I am in a 10 team 5 player keeper league. You keep a player as long as you want. I have won 2 years in a row. I have traded Luck 3 years ago for Brees and lost in the first round, David Johnson last year for Shady and this year Le'veon and Golladay for Beckham and Breida. I lost McKinnon to start the year and still ended up tops in the standings. I am hoping my new players work out as well as Shady did last year. It helps I drafted Chubb and Connor this year. Can't be afraid to move even marquis players when you have a shot to win it all. The draft is what gives you the ammo to be able to make big trades when you need too.

My only advice is the longer view tends to get messed up eventually due to trades, injuries, etc. Go for it now, you never know what's down the line.

zoonation said:

Update (because I know you all care!). The whole league, with the exception of four teams has thrown in the towel.  Top three (all 8-2) have made moves.  

I am rolling with:

Watson/Trubisky 

Kamara/Conner/Lindsay

A. Brown/Thomas/Diggs/Golladay

Lutz

Bears/Vikings/Texans/Broncos (for matchups in playoffs)

Team 2:

Goff

Gurley/Fournette/D. Martin

Hill/Adams/Ertz/Sanders

Crosby

Streamer D

Team 3:

Luck/Wilson

Saquon/Hunt/McCaffrey

juju/Thielen/Cooks/ARob

the Leg

streamer D

No clear favourite IMO.  watch one of the other three playoff teams win it!

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Sorry to say but if I had to pick I would make Team 3 the favorite.