What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

FANDUEL : WEEK 12 (1 Viewer)

jerseys finest

Footballguy
Its an interesting slate this week with 3 games on Thursday. I've put placeholders into all the single entry $1 and $2 tourneys spread across this week. 

I haven't gotten too deep research wise for this week. I'm still stinging from the a$$ kicking i got this past week on fanduel. Its a new week!!

Thoughts for the week?

 
I'll be sticking to the main slate.  I don't really care for the single game or small slate stuff too much.  Initial feelings without much insight...

QB: High - Luck, Rivers, Brady/ Med - Wentz, Mayfield/Low - Manning

RB: High - Barkley, Gordon/ Med-high - Connor, Chubb, Mixon/ Med-low - Michel, Barber/Low - Edwards??

WR: Med-High - Evans, Hilton, Allen, Edelman/Med - Sanders, Landry/ Low - Humphries?, Stills or Amendola?, Goodwin

TE: Ertz, Kittle, Njoku

Meh...don't have a real good feel for this slate.  Looks like another round of pay up big for RBs and guess away at WR...

 
Galileo said:
I'll be sticking to the main slate.  I don't really care for the single game or small slate stuff too much.  Initial feelings without much insight...

QB: High - Luck, Rivers, Brady/ Med - Wentz, Mayfield/Low - Manning

RB: High - Barkley, Gordon/ Med-high - Connor, Chubb, Mixon/ Med-low - Michel, Barber/Low - Edwards??

WR: Med-High - Evans, Hilton, Allen, Edelman/Med - Sanders, Landry/ Low - Humphries?, Stills or Amendola?, Goodwin

TE: Ertz, Kittle, Njoku

Meh...don't have a real good feel for this slate.  Looks like another round of pay up big for RBs and guess away at WR...
I love the middle tier Rbs this week.  Just put in a lineup with Fournette, Johnson, and Chubb and could do Winston, OBJ, and T.Y. in there as well.  

 
I love the middle tier Rbs this week.  Just put in a lineup with Fournette, Johnson, and Chubb and could do Winston, OBJ, and T.Y. in there as well.  
Well, I hope you are right since I am a Fournette owner in my big season long league, but I am not feeling it for him or Johnson at the moment.  I have a lineup currently in with Gordon, Chubb and Conner whom I feel good about, but it is not leaving me much at WR to be confident in.  I do have Baltimore's D in that line up who I think will be a slam dunk, but I will probably need to drop down to one of the cheapies to free up some cash.

 
GPP placeholder for the main slate : 

Jackson, Gordon/Chubb/Mack, OBJ/AJ green/John Brown, Brate, Seahawks 

will keep an eye on Green and pivot if need be. I’ll tinker this lineup a dozen times anyways, who am I kidding 🤪

will be using brate as a cheap TE flyer in both cash and gpp with Howard going to IR

 
GPP placeholder for the main slate : 

Jackson, Gordon/Chubb/Mack, OBJ/AJ green/John Brown, Brate, Seahawks 

will keep an eye on Green and pivot if need be. I’ll tinker this lineup a dozen times anyways, who am I kidding 🤪

will be using brate as a cheap TE flyer in both cash and gpp with Howard going to IR
I like this, and Mack was another I was going to bring up. 

With no Saints, Gurley, Zeke, Hunt, I think the instinct for a lot of people might be to still pay up at RB so Gordon and Barkley will be popular.   I think there are a mid-range and sub 7K guys that are interesting this week, and maybe a roster of 2-3 of them might be different:

Mack, Chubb, Michel, Mixon, Brieda, J.Adams to go along with guys like DJ, Conner, Fournette or the $ guys.  

On the fly I put in for a gpp placeholder: Luck - Chub/Mack/Michel - OBJ/Hilton/J.Gordon - Brate - Denv

 
Jackson, Gordon/Chubb/Mack, OBJ/AJ green/John Brown, Brate, Seahawks 
I like this line up. Particularly I like Jackson this week. But I'm not sure about John Brown. I could picture Jackson getting 250 combined yards and two touchdowns. But I don't predict good things for the receivers.

 
Oooooh...forgot about Mullens.  That's a juicy match up for $6K.

Mullens/Barkley, Gordon, Conner/ODB, Sanders, Amendola/Brate/$3100 Def...CLE?

Mullens/Barkley, Gordon, Chubb/A. Brown, Sanders, Amendola/Brate/$3500 or less...CLE? DEN?

I like them both, but not sure I love the Barkley/Beckham combo as much.  Can get some pretty good star power in there when using Mullens and Brate.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Oooooh...forgot about Mullens.  That's a juicy match up for $6K.

Mullens/Barkley, Gordon, Conner/ODB, Sanders, Amendola/Brate/$3100 Def...CLE?

Mullens/Barkley, Gordon, Chubb/A. Brown, Sanders, Amendola/Brate/$3500 or less...CLE? DEN?

I like them both, but not sure I love the Barkley/Beckham combo as much.  Can get some pretty good star power in there when using Mullens and Brate.
I don't like Barkley nearly as much on the road in Philly, but OBJ seems to torch them.  He is probably going to bite me in the ###, but I really don't like Barkley at that price and ownership this week.  I am going to have to stare at this more.  

 
I like this line up. Particularly I like Jackson this week. But I'm not sure about John Brown. I could picture Jackson getting 250 combined yards and two touchdowns. But I don't predict good things for the receivers.
He’s the one I am the least sold on, but brown has a big game every couple of games. I can see cheating up to contain Jackson and the run, leaving some big play opportunities. 

Still just a placeholder, gonna focus on the t-m (3$) and T only (4$) slates for now. 

Zeke is solid. no/ATL players. Is it a shootout(Kamara/Thomas) or do saints go up early(Ingram/Jones)? Nuke on Monday is solid. All titans scare me. Hard to predict which bear has the big game. Howard could be solid at his price point if they get up early. DET should need to throw. Golladay? Riddick? Ellington? TEs are cheap in det too. Lovin Riddick, super cheap (playing in the slot too and no KJohnson)Reed in Wash? Don’t like much else in that game. 

T-M concept - QB, Zeke/Riddick, Nuke/Julio/WR, Reed, Ingram, DEF

nees to plug that in and see what I can fill it with, that just jumped out to me while typing the previous paragraph 😛 

 
He’s the one I am the least sold on, but brown has a big game every couple of games. I can see cheating up to contain Jackson and the run, leaving some big play opportunities. 

Still just a placeholder, gonna focus on the t-m (3$) and T only (4$) slates for now. 

Zeke is solid. no/ATL players. Is it a shootout(Kamara/Thomas) or do saints go up early(Ingram/Jones)? Nuke on Monday is solid. All titans scare me. Hard to predict which bear has the big game. Howard could be solid at his price point if they get up early. DET should need to throw. Golladay? Riddick? Ellington? TEs are cheap in det too. Lovin Riddick, super cheap (playing in the slot too and no KJohnson)Reed in Wash? Don’t like much else in that game. 

T-M concept - QB, Zeke/Riddick, Nuke/Julio/WR, Reed, Ingram, DEF

nees to plug that in and see what I can fill it with, that just jumped out to me while typing the previous paragraph 😛 
I love this idea of Thurs-Mon LUs, but their gpp options are trashy again.  Might try a couple and pay up for the Julio/Thomas combo on Thursday and then use the cheap Rbs and Brate that I like from the main slate.  

 
As for Sunday and Monday, some random GPP thoughts:

  • QB: Not touching Roethlisberger. This is not a great week for QBs, but I like Wilson, Cousins, Luck and Jackson. You'd like to think Wentz will bounce back this week. But I lost too much money on him the last two weeks. I am using Jackson in the Sunday Million. 
  • RB: Some people will forget about Michel, so he's a nice cheap play this week. Chubb still underpriced. Brieda should be heavily owned. Cook burned us last week, but you have to think he does better vs. Packers. Mack should feast. Still love Lindsay. Gus Edwards should be heavily owned, so I'm pivoting to Jalen Richard instead. 
  • WR: Love Alshon to bounce back this week. Marquise Goodwin a great cheap option, but I'm not starting him. Tyler Lockett and Baldwin ridiculously cheap. 
  • TE: Brate will probably be the highest owned TE. I don't care. He's in my lineups. This position pretty awful with byes, so I'm going to spend down most of my lineups. 
 
I have four tickets for tomorrow's games, and one of them features Colt McCoy at QB.

Wish me luck :)
Yeah, this is the decision I am trying to make - where to get cheap/weird.  Right now I am stuck on staying with Ryan/Brees, Julio, and 2 of Thomas/Kamara/Ingram and finding punts at RB2, WR, and TE.   There are so many cheap guys that I think will be lower owned in the other games to take stabs at that it's hard for me to get away from the studs in the Atl/NO game, especially with Trubisky doubtful. 

I am doing 4 as well (unless I talk myself into a couple 25cent entries that mostly fade the Atl/NO game.)

Here are a couple I am looking at now:

Brees - Kamara/Howard - Thomas/Julio/4.9KWR - Schultz - Riddick - Chicago

Brees - Riddick/Coleman - Julio/Thomas/Golladay - Schultz - Ingram - Det. 

then basically doing the same thing, but with Ryan at Qb.  

 
Alright, I took FBGs up on their 60% holiday discount.  Figure with playoffs, there's still a good 8-9 weeks of NFL dfs left, and I am interested in some more ownership %s.  

 
Yeah, this is the decision I am trying to make - where to get cheap/weird.  Right now I am stuck on staying with Ryan/Brees, Julio, and 2 of Thomas/Kamara/Ingram and finding punts at RB2, WR, and TE.   There are so many cheap guys that I think will be lower owned in the other games to take stabs at that it's hard for me to get away from the studs in the Atl/NO game, especially with Trubisky doubtful. 
Of my four Thursday tickets, three are stud heavy and the fourth with Colt McCoy is a bit more exotic. Love Elliott tomorrow. 

 
Alright, I took FBGs up on their 60% holiday discount.  Figure with playoffs, there's still a good 8-9 weeks of NFL dfs left, and I am interested in some more ownership %s.  
Ownership % is a tough one for me. I've never fared any better spending my time building lineups with lower owned players, but obviously I see the reason for it. If you listen to the FBG power grid podcast, they're always quick to bring up ownership. While I understand why, the big money lineups are still built around a studs and duds roster. 

 
This is the $300,000 #1 winning lineup in last Sunday's contest. Almost all of these guys were highly owned:

QB Andrew Luck
RB Saquon Barkley
RB Ezekiel Elliott
WR Tre'Quan Smith
WR T.Y. Hilton
WR Kenny Golladay
TE Jordan Reed
FLEX David Johnson
DEF New Orleans Saints

 
Of my four Thursday tickets, three are stud heavy and the fourth with Colt McCoy is a bit more exotic. Love Elliott tomorrow. 
I keep thinking on these 3 game slates you need to for a little weirder, but with Trubisky and A.Smith out, I can't get super excited about much else besides Zeke, Golladay, and maybe Cooper from the other games.   For some reason my league is Thursday only too, so I might have a 5th LU for that, or just double up and use one that I am already building.   Just built one with Brees/Ingram/Thomas/Julio and Zeke with some flexibility with the other cheapie options to rotate in.  

I THINK if I go away from jamming in the Atl/NO game, I will start with Dak/Zeke/Cooper, and run it back with Reed and see where that takes me. 

 
This is the $300,000 #1 winning lineup in last Sunday's contest. Almost all of these guys were highly owned:

QB Andrew Luck
RB Saquon Barkley
RB Ezekiel Elliott
WR Tre'Quan Smith
WR T.Y. Hilton
WR Kenny Golladay
TE Jordan Reed
FLEX David Johnson
DEF New Orleans Saints
I am guessing the highlighted were the couple positions that were 5% or less?

 
I love this idea of Thurs-Mon LUs, but their gpp options are trashy again.  Might try a couple and pay up for the Julio/Thomas combo on Thursday and then use the cheap Rbs and Brate that I like from the main slate.  
I’ll probably toss in brate over Reed. Don’t like the qbs left otherwise

 
Ownership % is a tough one for me. I've never fared any better spending my time building lineups with lower owned players, but obviously I see the reason for it. If you listen to the FBG power grid podcast, they're always quick to bring up ownership. While I understand why, the big money lineups are still built around a studs and duds roster. 
I think I have said this, but I think it matters a bit more if you are builing 100 LUs, but it's also important for pivots/tiebreakers.   

I think where people go wrong is just by saying "oh, this scrub is 1% owned, so let's throw a dart at that".  I think it's more useful for seeing if there are QBs that are lower owned - like Luck last week, or who might be lower owned out of a group like Julio/Thomas/OBJ/Hopkins/Brown.  All of them are similar price and could go off for 30pts, so might want to take a look at the guy with a lower % projection in a gpp.  

 
Also, I think this year has been weird in that the chalk is smashing for the most part week in and week out.  The games that Vegas likes seem to go off, and maybe I am wrong but it just feels like in the past couple years you could do well with fading that game for the most part, and focus on a game with a little lower total and do decent in a gpp.  This year you are probably getting crushed fading the chalk too much (I should know... ;)

 
As for Sunday and Monday, some random GPP thoughts:

  • QB: Not touching Roethlisberger. This is not a great week for QBs, but I like Wilson, Cousins, Luck and Jackson. You'd like to think Wentz will bounce back this week. But I lost too much money on him the last two weeks. I am using Jackson in the Sunday Million. 
  • RB: Some people will forget about Michel, so he's a nice cheap play this week. Chubb still underpriced. Brieda should be heavily owned. Cook burned us last week, but you have to think he does better vs. Packers. Mack should feast. Still love Lindsay. Gus Edwards should be heavily owned, so I'm pivoting to Jalen Richard instead. 
  • WR: Love Alshon to bounce back this week. Marquise Goodwin a great cheap option, but I'm not starting him. Tyler Lockett and Baldwin ridiculously cheap. 
  • TE: Brate will probably be the highest owned TE. I don't care. He's in my lineups. This position pretty awful with byes, so I'm going to spend down most of my lineups. 
I like these thoughts.  I found it interesting that he Power Grid said to start with Barkley and Gordon and go middle of the road at WR in cash, so that puts me even more at maybe doing the opposite in gpps like I posted above.  Maybe pay up for OBJ and Kittle or Ertz then go middle of the road with the RBs you and I posted.  

 
I like these thoughts.  I found it interesting that he Power Grid said to start with Barkley and Gordon and go middle of the road at WR in cash, so that puts me even more at maybe doing the opposite in gpps like I posted above.  Maybe pay up for OBJ and Kittle or Ertz then go middle of the road with the RBs you and I posted.  
This is pretty much what I have been trying to do.  The problem is that I always feel like I am rolling dice with those middle of the road WRs.  Fortunately, IF the studs are good enough, and/or you can find a gem like T'Quan Smith, they will cover your butt which is how I survived a goose egg from D. Thomas last week. 

 
I think I have said this, but I think it matters a bit more if you are builing 100 LUs, but it's also important for pivots/tiebreakers.   
Maybe you can help me understand this: on this week's power grid podcast, someone liked Lamar Jackson in cash. So why cash and not a gpp? 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Pretty much.  Luck was 5%, Saints were 6%, and Reed was 4%.
Forgot how owned Reed was.  That LU is instantly weird b/c it had T.Smith, but not the highly owned NO studs as well.  

I am not sure what thread I posted it in, but one of the pods also mentioned that the best spots to try to gain leverage with ownership is QB, TE, Def b/c you are only starting one and QB scoring is fairly flat and TE/DEF are fairly volatile.   I would guess most of the time you need at least 1-2 5% or so owned guy to jump over lineups in the field.  

 
Maybe you can help me understand this: on this week's power grid podcast, someone liked Lamar Jackson in cash. So why cash and not a gpp? 
I remember his name being brought up.  Was it JUST for cash, and was it just a DK play (they lean mostly DK it seems)?   On DK the salaries are a little more spread out, and there are bonuses for 100+ rushing games/300+ passing games.  

Either way, I think what you are getting at (why is somebody that unproven being brought up for cash games?), and my guess is rushing floor is the reason his name is brought up for cash games.  There is a premium in theory for guys like Cam, Wilson (when he was rushing), Watson who you know are basically starting off with 5-6 points due to their rushing.   I am not sold on him for gpp on FD because I think here because TDs matter a little more.  

Speaking FD, for cash the target is 2-2.5x salary on average (120-150pts), and gpps the target is more 3-3.5x (180-210pts).   Jackson got a price bump and is 7.4K this week, so we are talking about 16-18pts for cash, and 22-24pts for gpps.   Do we think he can get to those levels?

With the scoring so high, I personally think we need to target guys that we think have the talent to get 300yds/3TDs minimum (24pts) and the ability to drop a 30pt game for our gpp QBs.  This is also why a lot of pods talk about narrowing down your QBs to 3-4 on the week, because that 300/3tds doesn't include many names.   

 
One of the podcasts had a great point about gpps, especially small slates like today's - leave money on the table.  

Because of optimizers and the bias of wanted to max your salary, they said there was a study of LUs in gpps and found that something like 85%+ of LUs use all the cap or are within 100 of doing so.  SO, if you leave more than that, statistically you are going to be different from the field.  Leave that 400-500 and ignore that impulse to tweak with the lineup and go to that other slightly more expensive player...

 
One of the podcasts had a great point about gpps, especially small slates like today's - leave money on the table.  

Because of optimizers and the bias of wanted to max your salary, they said there was a study of LUs in gpps and found that something like 85%+ of LUs use all the cap or are within 100 of doing so.  SO, if you leave more than that, statistically you are going to be different from the field.  Leave that 400-500 and ignore that impulse to tweak with the lineup and go to that other slightly more expensive player...
Excellent point! Doing a few single-entry GPP's today and on one of them, I have $900 still sitting out there. And that's with Zeke & Kamara in the LU. It is, without question, a crap-shoot. But for $2, I'll give it a whirl. The other ones are a little more conventional. 

 
Excellent point! Doing a few single-entry GPP's today and on one of them, I have $900 still sitting out there. And that's with Zeke & Kamara in the LU. It is, without question, a crap-shoot. But for $2, I'll give it a whirl. The other ones are a little more conventional. 
For my main LU, I squashed in Brees/Ingram/Zeke/Thomas/Julio  and it left 400.  I think I have a couple out there with 500-700 left as well.  

 
Man, you basically have to run 1 gpp lineup w/ Blount every week in case he has one of his occasional multi-TD games w/ less than 50 yards. 

 
I hate Jordan Howard, why do I ever pick this guy.  Every time he has the ball he runs like 3 yards and goes “ok guys tackle me now”.

What a waste of my GPP.  Happy Thanksgiving and good luck guys!

 
Since the nfl added the 3rd game this is my favorite nfl day of the season. Especially for FD just to gpp it up for fun and eat all day...also for fun! 

Can’t believe the difference in ownership between Blount and Riddick. I have about 17 gpp lineups going and used them both separately, but probably Riddick a little more. Would have loved to play Blount more at ~5%. 

Good luck tonight. People are stacked up for this game. I’ll have lineups charging but it will be potentially bittersweet watching my top 5 Safety lineup fade (have Kamara and Thomas though, crossing fingers!). 

 
Come on, NO.  I have 3 Dak/Cooper/Zeke stacks that were heavy on the night game as well, but with the studs who don't seem to be catching TDs tonight.  

 
Come on, NO.  I have 3 Dak/Cooper/Zeke stacks that were heavy on the night game as well, but with the studs who don't seem to be catching TDs tonight.  
Just crazy who he’s thrown these to. And that last guy Arnold, the lineup tool (Bloom’s builds) inserted quite a bit when I was looking at very top heavy lineups. 

 
Just crazy who he’s thrown these to. And that last guy Arnold, the lineup tool (Bloom’s builds) inserted quite a bit when I was looking at very top heavy lineups. 
No way I would have thought it, but currently the top lineups on both sites for the gpps I am in have 0 Saints in them, despite the team scoring 31. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ended up breaking even, which is pretty frustrating after having some Dallas stacks hit and seeing all the guys left in the Atl/No games go flat.  

I hope we aren't looking at the NO players besides Brees being unplayable as they seem to be toying with teams and using every Joe Blow on their roster.  

Oh well, on to the main slate.  Still loving the cheap backs, which means I probably need to make a cheap gpp or two with Barkley + Gordon in the LU.  

 
Ended up breaking even, which is pretty frustrating after having some Dallas stacks hit and seeing all the guys left in the Atl/No games go flat.  

I hope we aren't looking at the NO players besides Brees being unplayable as they seem to be toying with teams and using every Joe Blow on their roster.  

Oh well, on to the main slate.  Still loving the cheap backs, which means I probably need to make a cheap gpp or two with Barkley + Gordon in the LU.  
Seeing Gordon now has a questionable tag.  In a game they should easily win, I wonder if they try to rest Gordon some and give Ekeler a bigger work load.

 
Seeing Gordon now has a questionable tag.  In a game they should easily win, I wonder if they try to rest Gordon some and give Ekeler a bigger work load.
Just saw that he was a late entry to the injury report, which usually isn't great.   Is that going to drive the Barkley ownership up even more as well? 

 
Just for the hell of it, I'm all in on Lamar Jackson this week. I'm starting him in my Dynasty league with the number one seed at stake, and I'm starting him in my FanDuel Sunday million contest.

I was just thinking about Jackson this week, and what's fascinating to me is I'm pairing him with the Baltimore defense and he might even do better in a blow out than he would in a close game.

 
Just for the hell of it, I'm all in on Lamar Jackson this week. I'm starting him in my Dynasty league with the number one seed at stake, and I'm starting him in my FanDuel Sunday million contest.

I was just thinking about Jackson this week, and what's fascinating to me is I'm pairing him with the Baltimore defense and he might even do better in a blow out than he would in a close game.
I feel like I am in bizzaro world when I look at the QBs projected to be the most owned this week.  

I wonder what Jackson's ceiling is.  Is he going to run for 100 every game?  With a week to settle in, will he pass more, therefore decreasing his floor and maybe ceiling?  

 
Random gpp thoughts:

  • not really feeling a full game stack anywhere, but maybe a couple 3mans from the same team.  
  • b/c I think Mack will be a little lower owned, I like the idea of Luck + Mack as a start to soak up the Indy TDs.  Maybe could throw in Doyle or T.Y. for fun too. 
  • cheap Qbs seem to be popular this week, but I like the idea of paying up with Cam or Luck for lower ownership, maybe even Brady.  
  • rbs are hard this week.  I think Michel will go underowned as usual, and if he is a go I like him.  Gus Edwards seems to be the RB of the day, so I like J.Adams as a possible pivot off him for a gpp.  
  • Man does WR feel sparse this week.  Lower owned ideas are Lockett since Car seems to have issues with the deep ball, Green/Boyd,  Humphries (if I am remembering right, Winston likes him and Evans, and Fitz likes Godwin and D.Jax?),  Gordon/Edelman,  maybe going back to the well with Philly WRs again?  
  • TE feels like the best spot to throw a low owned gpp dart at this week.  It feels like Brate will be mega-chalk and Kittle/Ertz will be right there, leaving all the 5K TEs in probably single digit ownership for the most part.   In the past 5 weeks, Car and NE are in the top 5 for pts/g allowed to TEs, so I wrote down Vannett and Herndon as gpp plays.  I also don't mind the guys in the Pitts/Denv game, as they both have decent matchups.  
  • Defense as usual is another spot to pick up low ownership.   Just looking at the adjusted sack rates and home teams - Cincy, TB, Phil, Car might be ways to pick up a low owned spot and save 1K off the popular Balt, Jax, and Charger Defenses.  
  • I always like to remind myself that TE and D are two of the most volatile positions, so it makes sense to make ownership plays there. 




Placeholder I put in after these thoughts for me to stare at:

Luck - Mack/Chubb/J.Adams - Brown/Sanders/J.Gordon - Vannett - Philly

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top