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Like the Vannett call; have him on my sheet. Projected ownership at 1.1%, Herndon at 2.3% so he'll be in play as well.

Kinda liking the CLEV defense as a punt. They have their problems, but, so does the Bengals offense and at $3,100, seems like another nice low-owned salary-saver. Gonna have a few LU's with a Chubb/CLEV stack.

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Chubb/J.Adams - Brown/Sanders/J.Gordon

Love Chubb again this week. Is Gordon banged up?

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I feel like I am in bizzaro world when I look at the QBs projected to be the most owned this week.  

I wonder what Jackson's ceiling is.  Is he going to run for 100 every game?  With a week to settle in, will he pass more, therefore decreasing his floor and maybe ceiling?  

I think Jackson has about four drives in the red zone Sunday, and I think it'd be reasonable to predict two rushing TDs.

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5 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I think Jackson has about four drives in the red zone Sunday, and I think it'd be reasonable to predict two rushing TDs.

Fair enough.  I guess the play is to run him in a LU by himself, even in gpp?  

Since I haven't really thought about playing him, Jackson should be in my Barkley (maybe + Gordon) gpp LU on Sunday.  

I get some of the names at the top, but it just feels weird that it takes getting to 5 or 6 on the list to get to a dude that has throw for 3+ TDs every week since about week 4.  I get the feeling the popular build is to go cheaper at Qb then pay up for 1 RB, 1WR, probably 1TE and if not at TE pay up for another RB/WR.    For some reason that feels odd to me since it's not a normal week were we have a ton of smash RBs to pay for or a lot of guys like Thomas/Hopkins/Julio/Thielen to get up to.  

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On 11/21/2018 at 6:46 AM, Galileo said:

Oooooh...forgot about Mullens.  That's a juicy match up for $6K.

 

Mullens/Barkley, Gordon, Conner/ODB, Sanders, Amendola/Brate/$3100 Def...CLE?

Mullens/Barkley, Gordon, Chubb/A. Brown, Sanders, Amendola/Brate/$3500 or less...CLE? DEN?

I like them both, but not sure I love the Barkley/Beckham combo as much.  Can get some pretty good star power in there when using Mullens and Brate.

I have not done a straight cash lineup in a while (5050's with maybe a sprinkle of 2x), but I have one lined up this week with Mullens/Brate.  Haven't decided on the WRs, but Barkely will be in there and likely Chubb.  

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I am trying a cash LU and kinda like the core I have:  Conner/Chubb/Brieda Brown(or OBJ)/Gordon/Moore Brate.   It's basically a perfect pivot from Jackson/BaltD to Luck/sub4KD.  

Like somebody else posted last week - I am too indecisive for this.  

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Well, I had to get Melvin Gordon out of my line ups.  Dodds is really high on Ekeler in his Cracking FanDuel article whether Gordon plays or not.  So I was tinkering with an Ekeler line up and it doesn't look too bad if I trust him as much as Dodds does...

Mullens/Barkley, Chubb, Ekeler/Beckham, A. Brown, Sanders/Brate/CLE

Able to get Beckham and Brown in there and this line up still has $700 sitting on the shelf...could move off CLE defense up to Philly, but the have no DBs left to play or Carolina.

Edited by Galileo

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Cash LU: QB/Jackson, RB/ Conner - Chubb, WR/ Beckham - Sanders - Fitzgerald, TE/ Brate, Flex/ Mack, DEF/ NE. 

GPP #1: QB/ Mullens, RB/ Fournette - J. White, WR/ Beckham - Jeffrey - Humphries, TE/ Kittle, Flex/ Ekeler, DEF/ NE

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1 hour ago, Galileo said:

Well, I had to get Melvin Gordon out of my line ups.  Dodds is really high on Ekeler in his Cracking FanDuel article whether Gordon plays or not.  So I was tinkering with an Ekeler line up and it doesn't look too bad if I trust him as much as Dodds does...

Mullens/Barkley, Chubb, Ekeler/Beckham, A. Brown, Sanders/Brate/CLE

Able to get Beckham and Brown in there and this line up still has $700 sitting on the shelf...could move off CLE defense up to Philly, but the have no DBs left to play or Carolina.

Love obj and Brown in there, and was actually thinking on the ride home if that was possible, but for cash I'm not sure of him and Barkley in the same lu from a team with a low Vegas total.  

Keep in mind, I thought playing Jackson last week was a bit thin too... 

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Currently thinking Barkley in straight cash and OBJ in a cash+.

Need to decide that's all I'll do besides some GPPs, or do two cash+.

 

I also have 3 tickets coming to fruition in the $5 mega Q to some larger tournament.  It will cap at 9000 entries all going for 150 tickets.  I'll have to treat these as longshot GPP entries. 

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52 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Love obj and Brown in there, and was actually thinking on the ride home if that was possible, but for cash I'm not sure of him and Barkley in the same lu from a team with a low Vegas total.  

Keep in mind, I thought playing Jackson last week was a bit thin too... 

I hear ya...good point.   I think I read somewhere that Philly's top 5 CBs are out for this game.   This would make me want to lean OBJ, but Barkley just always seems to get his...  Well, the Brown/OBJ lineup is definitely possible, even without Ekeler (still have $700 left in the lineup above).  If you sit Barkley, you will likely free up even more $$$.  If Gordon is out, I'd be all in on Ekeler.  The problem is that he is a game time decision for a late game, so not likely to know...I have Ekeler in the flex spot at the moment and could potentially do a late swap if needed.  

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10 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I guess the play is to run him in a LU by himself, even in gpp?

I'm pairing Jackson with Baltimore D.

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42 minutes ago, Galileo said:

I hear ya...good point.   I think I read somewhere that Philly's top 5 CBs are out for this game.   This would make me want to lean OBJ, but Barkley just always seems to get his...  Well, the Brown/OBJ lineup is definitely possible, even without Ekeler (still have $700 left in the lineup above).  If you sit Barkley, you will likely free up even more $$$.  If Gordon is out, I'd be all in on Ekeler.  The problem is that he is a game time decision for a late game, so not likely to know...I have Ekeler in the flex spot at the moment and could potentially do a late swap if needed.  

Like I said, I haven't had much success with cash lately, so I am mostly talking out loud.  It's also a weird slate with a lot less studs, so Barkley and OBJ stick out.  

Not discounting their usage or talent at all, just saying it feels odd to smash in 2 guys from a team with a 21pt total on the road in a 2nd division game who are also 2 of the 5 most expensive players.   I see it more when it's Gurley/Cooks or Kamara/Thomas at home when they have a 30+ team total, but it feels weird to me for a cash game.  

 

After I thought about the Brown/OBJ combo, I looked at my LU more, and you can do something like:

Mullins - Conner/Fournette/Mack - Brown/OBJ/Moore - Brate - Car     Again, not sure about Brown/Conner both in there on the road, so could do Chubb instead of Conner.   Could also do Stud QB/cheap RB like Edwards instead of Mullins/Conner.  

:shrug:

 

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I think Chubb is a must play for me.  I had a Brown/Conner combo at one point during the week, but shied away from it as well.  I actually like Conner more than Brown.   Big Ben can sometimes be a nightmare on the road.  Although, as awful as he was last week in JAX, he still managed to put together a decent outing by the time it was over.  I have less confidence in the Brown/Conner combo than I do in the Barkley/OBJ combo.  Generally, I do not play combinations at all in my cash line ups, but I seem to keep doing it this week when I tinker.  That's probably not a good thing.  I need to look at/consider McCaffrey more closely.  Maybe he should be the "stud" RB along with the big name WRs...

Edited by Galileo

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8 minutes ago, Galileo said:

 Generally, I do not play combinations at all in my cash line ups, but I seem to keep doing it this week when I tinker.  That's probably not a good thing. 

lol...was tinkering some more and ended up with McCaffrey and DJ Moore.   Then I ended up with Chubb and Landry.  I am doomed!

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1 minute ago, Galileo said:

lol...was tinkering some more and ended up with McCaffrey and DJ Moore.   Then I ended up with Chubb and Landry.  I am doomed!

I keep getting Luck/Mack and Mullins/Breida too. 

 

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3 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I keep getting Luck/Mack and Mullins/Breida too. 

 

This one doesn't bother me too much considering their opponent.

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15 minutes ago, Galileo said:

I think Chubb is a must play for me.  I had a Brown/Conner combo at one point during the week, but shied away from it as well.  I actually like Conner more than Brown.   Big Ben can sometimes be a nightmare on the road.  Although, as awful as he was last week in JAX, he still managed to put together a decent outing by the time it was over.  I have less confidence in the Brown/Conner combo than I do in the Barkley/OBJ combo.  Generally, I do not play combinations at all in my cash line ups, but I seem to keep doing it this week when I tinker.  That's probably not a good thing.  I need to look at/consider McCaffrey more closely.  Maybe he should be the "stud" RB along with the big name WRs...

Not sure how much stock to put in it, but I thought one of the pods said that for whatever reason this applies more to the noon away games than it does afternoon and primetime games.  

Also, as I was doing research and just looking at stats from the last 4-5 weeks (sometimes you see things pop up that are different than season averages), only 4 QBs on the slate are averaging 20+pts/g over the last 5 weeks - Cam, Ben, Luck, Wilson.    For Ben, that includes 2 tough Ds in Jax and in Balt and both were on the road.    I also find it interesting that those 4 QBs are projected to be lower owned than guys like Jackson, Winston, etc..  

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5 minutes ago, Galileo said:

This one doesn't bother me too much considering their opponent.

Brieda/Kittle maybe too.   I think these are all combos to write down for correlations in gpps too and focus on a couple offenses.  

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

Not sure how much stock to put in it, but I thought one of the pods said that for whatever reason this applies more to the noon away games than it does afternoon and primetime games.  

Also, as I was doing research and just looking at stats from the last 4-5 weeks (sometimes you see things pop up that are different than season averages), only 4 QBs on the slate are averaging 20+pts/g over the last 5 weeks - Cam, Ben, Luck, Wilson.    For Ben, that includes 2 tough Ds in Jax and in Balt and both were on the road.    I also find it interesting that those 4 QBs are projected to be lower owned than guys like Jackson, Winston, etc..  

Remember, Ben ran one in against JAX...That's not something to count on.  

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4 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Remember, Ben ran one in against JAX...That's not something to count on.  

Also passed for 300+ and a couple TDs.    ;)  

Just saying that there could be enough production for both Brown and Conner in cash and that guys like Wilson and Ben might be worth a look if they are going to be 5% or less in gpps.

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Alright, I am back to Conner and away from Barkley.  Fading A. Brown and sticking with OBJ.  Here is what I am rolling with (until I do something stupid at 12:45 PM tomorrow...)

Mullens/Conner, Chubb, Breida/OBJ, Hilton, Sanders/Brate/LAC    (paid up for D with the savings from no Barkley)

If I hear M. Gordon is out, I may pivot from Breida to Ekeler

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I keep looking at the Seat/Car game for gpps.  With Funchess out, there are cheap WRs to look at for Car - Samuel would be a low owned pivot off Moore.  On the other side I already listed Lockett and Vanett (also cheap).   Could stack this game, and load up on RBs...

Cam - Barkley/Chubb/Mack - Lockett/Moore/Samuel - Doyle - Balt

I did 4 variations of this - one with McCaffrey/Samuel, this one, and one with McCaffrey/Moore, then switched to one with Wilson at QB.  

 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Is the biggest FD contest their $9.99 Sunday million?  Top prize is $300k--what did the FBG staffer win a million in?

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6 hours ago, Galileo said:

Well, I had to get Melvin Gordon out of my line ups.  Dodds is really high on Ekeler in his Cracking FanDuel article whether Gordon plays or not.  So I was tinkering with an Ekeler line up and it doesn't look too bad if I trust him as much as Dodds does...

Mullens/Barkley, Chubb, Ekeler/Beckham, A. Brown, Sanders/Brate/CLE

Able to get Beckham and Brown in there and this line up still has $700 sitting on the shelf...could move off CLE defense up to Philly, but the have no DBs left to play or Carolina.

What about Hilton over Sanders?

I've been running all kinds of combos and that's one of my favorites....but it doesn't come out >130 on the optimizer.  I don't really want Barkley + Beckham though, so I could move off Beckham and upgrade defense as you mention.....Allen and Buffalo for example, but again, a RB/WR combo is created.  Sanders is 100 short of the two top D's, so JGordon/Boyd get us to LAC.

Edited by Bobcat10

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9 minutes ago, chet said:

Is the biggest FD contest their $9.99 Sunday million?  Top prize is $300k--what did the FBG staffer win a million in?

Maybe the $20 DK contest?  I think that is always a $1M top prize.   I also think the FD Sunday Million has gone more and more each week, so it might have been a 1M payout at the beginning of the year.  

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5 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

What about Hilton over Sanders?

I've been running all kinds of combos and that's one of my favorites....but it doesn't come out >130 on the optimizer.  

Is this something you like to see for a cash LU?  Do you use the average, or like one person's projections over another?

 

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Using the optimizer and Dodds' article, I got the following lineup.  Any thoughts?

 

 

QBNick Mullens6000

RBAustin Ekeler5400

RBSaquon Barkley9000

WROdell Beckham Jr8500

WRT.Y. Hilton7500

WRTyler Boyd6800

TECameron Brate4400

FNick Chubb7500

DLos Angeles Chargers4900

Total:60000

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

Is this something you like to see for a cash LU?  Do you use the average, or like one person's projections over another?

I really don't have a great feel for the optimizer this year to be honest, seems off sometimes and I haven't used it every week....but it feels like 132-135 is common this week.

Normally, I start with the min 3 players, or 4, and run on all 4 projection sets noting some differences/similarities.  Then maybe bump the 3/4 players to 5/6 based on what I'm seeing and run all 4 again.  Rinse/repeat until I get close to something I like then try to top it off with some common sense.

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2 minutes ago, chet said:

Using the optimizer and Dodds' article, I got the following lineup.  Any thoughts?

 

 

QBNick Mullens6000

RBAustin Ekeler5400

RBSaquon Barkley9000

WROdell Beckham Jr8500

WRT.Y. Hilton7500

WRTyler Boyd6800

TECameron Brate4400

FNick Chubb7500

DLos Angeles Chargers4900

Total:60000

That's where I ended up a few posts above, with Brown instead of Beckham, and Galileo was very similar earlier today. 

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1 minute ago, chet said:

Using the optimizer and Dodds' article, I got the following lineup.  Any thoughts?

 

 

QBNick Mullens6000

RBAustin Ekeler5400

RBSaquon Barkley9000

WROdell Beckham Jr8500

WRT.Y. Hilton7500

WRTyler Boyd6800

TECameron Brate4400

FNick Chubb7500

DLos Angeles Chargers4900

Total:60000

In general, I like it, but if you look up thread, you will see some dialogue questioning the Barkley/Beckham combo which is a bit concerning (NYG low projected point total) and I like the Ekeler play if Gordon is ruled out.  He will be a game time decision.  Some of the FBG folks like Ekeler regardless if Gordon plays or not.

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Ugh...I am now leaning away from Ekeler with early reports that Gordon may play (no where near certain though)

Mullens/Chubb, McCaffrey, ???????/OBJ, Hilton, Sanders/Brate/???????

If I put Breida in, that leaves $4400 for defense... Indy?  Philly? Car? Cle?

I am tempted to roll out Gus Edwards at only $5300 which leaves $5500 for defense... could go with Balt or LAC...

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3 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Ugh...I am now leaning away from Ekeler with early reports that Gordon may play (no where near certain though)

Mullens/Chubb, McCaffrey, ???????/OBJ, Hilton, Sanders/Brate/???????

If I put Breida in, that leaves $4400 for defense... Indy?  Philly? Car? Cle?

I am tempted to roll out Gus Edwards at only $5300 which leaves $5500 for defense... could go with Balt or LAC...

I was going to ask if people are leaving their LUs and using Edwards pending the news.  Just sucks that it's a late game, and really not much to pivot to at that price in the afternoon.  

Also, didn't Dodds say he was on him whether Gordon plays or not? 

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10 hours ago, Galileo said:

In general, I like it, but if you look up thread, you will see some dialogue questioning the Barkley/Beckham combo which is a bit concerning (NYG low projected point total) 

I don't understand this at all. The Eagles are, for all intents & purposes, using guys off the street for CB at this point due to injuries. The Saints absolutely lit this defense up last week like a Christmas tree. I can easily see the Giants putting up over 30 points.

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1 minute ago, KarmaPolice said:

I was going to ask if people are leaving their LUs and using Edwards pending the news.  Just sucks that it's a late game, and really not much to pivot to at that price in the afternoon.  

Also, didn't Dodds say he was on him whether Gordon plays or not? 

Yes, he did...but he is more confident than I.  But it is easy to see a game script that plays Gordon for a half, LAC rolls, Ekeler takes over...

 

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1 minute ago, reel_smooth said:

I don't understand this at all. The Eagles are, for all intents & purposes, using guys off the street for CB at this point due to injuries. The Saints absolutely lit this defense up last week like a Christmas tree. I can easily see the Giants putting up over 30 points.

Well, the Saints light up everbody.  NYG has only a 21.5 implied total.  I got to think OBJ gets his against that secondary which leaves me wondering if Barkley is worth the $9k

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20 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Well, the Saints light up everbody.  NYG has only a 21.5 implied total.  I got to think OBJ gets his against that secondary which leaves me wondering if Barkley is worth the $9k

I think he hit's cash game value. And I'll be shocked if the Giants score less than 24.

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21 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

I don't understand this at all. The Eagles are, for all intents & purposes, using guys off the street for CB at this point due to injuries. The Saints absolutely lit this defense up last week like a Christmas tree. I can easily see the Giants putting up over 30 points.

 

17 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Well, the Saints light up everbody.  NYG has only a 21.5 implied total.  I got to think OBJ gets his against that secondary which leaves me wondering if Barkley is worth the $9k

Plus it was the Saints at home, and this is a division game and the Giants are on the road.    

With scoring up, aren't we looking for 2.2-2.5x from players in cash now?  132-150pts?  So with their salary we are talking 40pts between the two?  Doable, but I was the one that brought up the low Vegas total and thought it was a little odd that people were jamming both in cash LUs.   Saints usually have 30+pt implied team totals.  

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10 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

 

Plus it was the Saints at home, and this is a division game and the Giants are on the road.    

With scoring up, aren't we looking for 2.2-2.5x from players in cash now?  132-150pts?  So with their salary we are talking 40pts between the two?  Doable, but I was the one that brought up the low Vegas total and thought it was a little odd that people were jamming both in cash LUs.   Saints usually have 30+pt implied team totals.  

 

Dallas was on the road two weeks ago in Philly and hung 27 on that defense. I  understand the argument; I just can't help but think that the Eagles defense is a shell of what it was at the beginning of the year. 

Edited by reel_smooth
content correction

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Alright...I quit.  Locking in with this:

Mullens/McCaffrey, Chubb, Breida/OBJ, A. Brown, Sanders/Brate/CLE

If the stud WRs bust, I will be toast.

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13 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

 

Dallas was on the road two weeks ago in Philly and hung 27 on that defense. I  understand the argument; I just can't help but think that the Eagles defense is a shell of what it was at the beginning of the year. 

Fair points as well.   I also think that Mullins is what people are using to unlock OBJ and Barkely, and I am still debating if that is a smart thing to do.  That's why I asked a couple posts ago about Luck+Breida instead of Mullins+Barkley, and if that was a safer pivot in cash.  

I just keep going back to what I thought were cash basics - higher team totals, home offenses when possible, high volume, etc..

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12 hours ago, chet said:

Is the biggest FD contest their $9.99 Sunday million?  Top prize is $300k--what did the FBG staffer win a million in?

Earlier in the year the variant of that $9.99 contest paid $1M to first. They scaled the size back and raised entry from $9 to $9.99 for the current format. 

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Not much love for Jameis here. Figure he’s going to have 40-ish attempts. Sure, at least a couple of those will get picked-off, but seems unlikely that he won’t get to 20 points assuming he nabs a few points running. 

Here’s what I have for my cash lineups (maybe “cash plus” since I run them in triples too). I’m all-in on Chubb, Ekelor, Brate, and ODB. Also willing to bet the Jacksonville serves up multiple turnovers.

Jackson, Chubb/Ekelor, Beckham/Boyd/Evans, Brate, Conner, Bills

Jameis, Chubb/Ekelor, Beckham/Hilton/Antonio, Breida, Brate, Bills

Might turn Conner into Mack in that first one, then turn Boyd into Keenan. That’s a “negative” correlation play w/ Ekelor I know. But w/ Ekelor as cheap as he is, he doesn’t need much to be ok  

 

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I figure people would shy away from the TB qb carousel.  He could throw a few picks and get benched.  Who knows wtf is going on down there.  

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26 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I figure people would shy away from the TB qb carousel.  He could throw a few picks and get benched.  Who knows wtf is going on down there.  

That’s valid I guess. Just seems to me that they’re just playing it out now and they need to figure out if Jameis is the guy or not. Fitz won’t be there next year. 

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12 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Do you guys like  Mullins/Barkley that much more than Luck/Breida for a cash LU? 

 

For what it’s worth, here’s what I’m rolling in cash:

Luck/Breida/Chubb/Beckham/ABrown/DJMoore/Brate/Edwards/Chargers

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