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WR DK Metcalf, SEA (1 Viewer)

I got pick 1.1 in a FFPC league and it's funny because when Metcalf tore up the 40 I got two emails from different people in that league. One person, who owns 1.1 in other leagues, was excitedly sharing with someone else he felt would care that the value of 1.1 was now way up. The other person has pick 1.2,  only drafts players from SEC schools and I own a ton of SEC RB's so I think he assumed I was going to take Josh Jacobs and now Metcalf tore up the 40 it was a hard decision and he could not wait to see which one I'd be leaving him.

Metcalf is my #1WR right now. Was before the combine. Right now he's also my 4th ranked player in FFPC format. Landing spot absolutely changes things but right now I'm still taking Jacobs or an Iowa over him.

And again Metcalf is my #1WR but he's not even a lock to remain that way right now, I mean some WR is likely to get Baltimored but could probably come up other scenarios another WR might push over him.

So for me I'm 100% considering Metcalf at 1.1, but think it's way to early to assume he's a top 3 pick, but for sure his chances improve in a non-TE premium league.

 
I know highlights are just that, showing the best, not the drops or other screwups, but this is a clip of DK before college,  I guess maybe he put on 20 pounds of muscle since this video, but he looks pretty agile to me and able to run more than just a go route, plus playing a little defensive corner.  Bradley Chubb's 7.37 cone time caused some big concerns last year, I know he is on defense, but it was a big concern.  Boom or bust, nobody knows, even the experts who are getting paid a lot of $$$ are really no better at picking talent than a lot of the non-paid posters in the forums. 

DJ Pre College

 
For those who haven’t guessed yet, Player X is Stephen Hill.

You want to see a draft that looked great on paper before hand and then went sideways as players actually got on NFL fields, go take a gander at that 2012 draft.  Perceived to be deep at WR too, with 4 going in Rd 1 and 7 in the first 45 players.  Plus a sure-thing RB going 1.03.

I’m not saying this year is 2012 all over again. Hardly.  But it’s just a word of caution with all the high flying optimism going on after the Combine.  These guys won’t be going against a clock or a tape measure in tees and shorts in a few months.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
For those who haven’t guessed yet, Player X is Stephen Hill.

You want to see a draft that looked great on paper before hand and then went sideways as players actually got on NFL fields, go take a gander at that 2012 draft.  Perceived to be deep at WR too, with 4 going in Rd 1 and 7 in the first 45 players.  Plus a sure-thing RB going 1.03.

I’m not saying this year is 2012 all over again. Hardly.  But it’s just a word of caution with all the high flying optimism going on after the Combine.  These guys won’t be going against a clock or a tape measure in tees and shorts in a few months.
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Agreed. Give me a football player over an athlete any day. Some people are awesome at drills and can’t put it all together on game day. And vice versa, some play well in games and suck in drills.

 
We know pretty much the same as we did before the combine as after - There's no sure thing in this draft.

We knew going into the combine that the draft didn't have a Barkley or Elliot or Calvin or Julio in it and we know it coming out.

Nobody is saying anything new when they're urging a tempering expectations. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
We know pretty much the same as we did before the combine as after - There's no sure thing in this draft.

We knew going into the combine that the draft didn't have a Barkley or Elliot or Calvin or Julio in it and we know it coming out.

Nobody is saying anything new when they're urging a tempering expectations. 
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Odd.  That’s not what I’m reading in this thread.  I’m reading that the top 3 are pretty much set (ETA - in FF drafts) and Metcalf, a guy with very poor college production who hasn’t done much more than run go routes, is in very strong consideration for 1.01 because of the eye popping straight line speed he showed this weekend to go with his size.

 
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The defensive side is probably a different story. As in, we thought the defensive side was loaded - but we underestimated HOW loaded. Guys this size shouldn't be this fast and agile. Dios mio!

 
Andy Dufresne said:
The defensive side is probably a different story. As in, we thought the defensive side was loaded - but we underestimated HOW loaded. Guys this size shouldn't be this fast and agile. Dios mio!
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I agree with that.  This is a great D draft plus some pretty good looking O linemen, and O skill players may slide a bit after the QBs go.

 
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Stephen Hill was a guy who actually had poor college production.  He lacked production despite being healthy.  Metcalf just got hurt.  Metcalf had 2 fewer catches last year in 5 games than Stephen Hill had in his best college season where he played 13 games.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Odd.  That’s not what I’m reading in this thread.  I’m reading that the top 3 are pretty much set and Metcalf, a guy with very poor college production who hasn’t done much more than run go routes, is in very strong consideration for 1.01 because of the eye popping straight line speed he showed this weekend to go with his size.
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I just think you're just not summing it all up quite right.

Metcalf is the 1.1 because when you subtract his weaknesses from his strengths it's a larger "number" that results when you do the same for the rest of the class. He's an imperfect prospect compared to other drafts but he's the best bet in THIS draft.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Stephen Hill was a guy who actually had poor college production.  He lacked production despite being healthy.  Metcalf just got hurt.  Metcalf had 2 fewer catches last year in 5 games than Stephen Hill had in his best college season where he played 13 games.
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Thought Metcalf played in 7 games.  And well over half that production came against Southern Illinois, Kent St, and Louisiana-Monroe.

 
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Andy Dufresne said:
I just think you're just not summing it all up quite right.

Metcalf is the 1.1 because when you subtract his weaknesses from his strengths it's a larger "number" that results when you do the same for the rest of the class. He's an imperfect prospect compared to other drafts but he's the best bet in THIS draft.
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And again, I’m hearing lots if references on this board about how crazy strong this WR class is.  And I definitely disagree that Metcalf is the best FF prospect in this group.

 
Gandalf said:
So who do you prefer over him and why?
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Different guys who had much better production in lesser environments, and given that all my leaguemates attend this board I feel a strong need to withhold until the first week of May, when I’ll be more than happy to drill down and let people have at me.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
And again, I’m hearing lots if references on this board about how crazy strong this WR class is.  And I definitely disagree that Metcalf is the best FF prospect in this group.
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See that's what I'm not reading. Guys might be surprised that there's more NFL talent available but I don't see anyone shouting "Boy do I feel a whole lot better about having the 1.7 now!"

And we're all very clear by now that you think there's a better option than Metcalf. But you're definitely the minority opinion on that.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
See that's what I'm not reading. Guys might be surprised that there's more NFL talent available but I don't see anyone shouting "Boy do I feel a whole lot better about having the 1.7 now!"

And we're all very clear by now that you think there's a better option than Metcalf. But you're definitely the minority opinion on that.
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Understood.  And it sure won’t be the first time if I’m wrong.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Thought Metcalf played in 7 games.  And well over half that production came against Southern Illinois, Kent St, and Louisiana-Monroe.
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This can’t be ignored......well maybe it can. Last year I said the same thing about Sutton and that didn’t go over too well for the Sutton camp.  Do we really know what we are getting out of Metcalf the football player? I won’t be draft any WR over Josh then after Josh I will take the two best TEs then I might look at the WRs.

Tex

 
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BigTex said:
This can’t be ignored......well maybe it can. Last year I said the same thing about Sutton and that didn’t go over too well for the Sutton camp.  Do we really know what we are getting out of Metcalf the football player? I won’t be draft any WR over Josh then after Josh I will take the two best TEs then I might look at the WRs.

Tex
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Honestly, don’t you think Sutton built enough of a resume over his college career that it was significantly different than this situation?

 
Bronco Billy said:
And again, I’m hearing lots if references on this board about how crazy strong this WR class is.  And I definitely disagree that Metcalf is the best FF prospect in this group.
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I'm reading it differently - sure there may be some people over excited about Metcalf in his thread, go figure, but I think a lot of the people calling for him to be the 1.01 are doing so reluctantly. All I keep hearing about this class in general is that landing spot is going to be the biggest factor in how we rank the rookies. Landing spots have always factored in but we also had guys that were locks to be top five rookie picks no matter where they landed by this point in the process. To me that says most people see some flaws in almost every prospect and are looking at upside and potential. I think it's a fairly deep WR class but I think every one of them raises at least one or two red flags as well.

I've also haven't been less excited about a RB class in quite sometime. There's a few guys I like ok, but no one I'd stand on a table for. The guy I liked the most. Montgomery, just had a poor showing athletically, but I'll keep him on top of my list for now. Everyone is excited about a few key landing spots (KC, Philly, TB) but no one is all that excited about any of the prospects necessarily.

 
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Faust said:
Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf finished with a bottom-two percentile score in the 3-cone drill.

Metcalf (6'3/228) absolutely smashed the NFL Combine still after running a 4.33 40-yard dash at 228 pounds, but we can't ignore the terrible agility numbers here. Even at yesterday's press conference, Metcalf said that the Washington Redskins' staff said that he has to get better getting out of his breaks, which is something the 3-cone drill would measure. With elite straight-line speed and horrendous agility, Metcalf's athletic profile is wild, but there are routes where Metcalf will have corners shaking in fear. Let's hope that Metcalf lands on a team that will give him a chance to join the elites.

SOURCE: Mockdraftable.com

Mar 2, 2019, 6:44 PM
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Matt Miller‏Verified account @nfldraftscout

As much as we talked about DK Metcalf's amazing 40, vert and weigh-in we also have to talk about his fail level short shuttle and 3-cone. A frame that big and that tight cannot bend or change direction--which is an important part of playing wide receiver.

5:47 AM - 3 Mar 2019

 
Bronco Billy said:
Honestly, don’t you think Sutton built enough of a resume over his college career that it was significantly different than this situation?
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No, only because they spoon fed Sutton when they paid lesser talented, smaller school therefore inflating his numbers. Sutton will always be that guy that may out jump the CB for the ball but he’ll most certainly get tackled as soon as he catches it. He’s a leaper and will always be. He’s an intelligent guy so maybe he’ll redefine his game but I personally saw nothing in college that would put him in the top ten because of what I physically saw in live action.

Tex

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I'm reading it differently - sure there may be some people over excited about Metcalf in his thread, go figure, but I think a lot of the people calling for him to be the 1.01 are doing so reluctantly. All I keep hearing about this class in general is that landing spot is going to be the biggest factor in how we rank the rookies. Landing spots have always factored in but we also had guys that were locks to be top five rookie picks no matter where they landed by this point in the process. To me that says most people see some flaws in almost every prospect and are looking at upside and potential. I think it's a fairly deep WR class but I think every one of them raises at least one or two red flags as well.

I've also haven't been less excited about a RB class in quite sometime. There's a few guys I like ok, but no one I'd stand on a table for. The guy I liked the most. Montgomery, just had a poor showing athletically, but I'll keep him on top of my list for now. Everyone is excited about a few key landing spots (KC, Philly, TB) but no one is all that excited about any of the prospects necessarily.
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There's a few great RB/WR in this draft but they aren't well known......

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I'm reading it differently - sure there may be some people over excited about Metcalf in his thread, go figure, but I think a lot of the people calling for him to be the 1.01 are doing so reluctantly. All I keep hearing about this class in general is that landing spot is going to be the biggest factor in how we rank the rookies. Landing spots have always factored in but we also had guys that were locks to be top five rookie picks no matter where they landed by this point in the process. To me that says most people see some flaws in almost every prospect and are looking at upside and potential. I think it's a fairly deep WR class but I think every one of them raises at least one or two red flags as well.

I've also haven't been less excited about a RB class in quite sometime. There's a few guys I like ok, but no one I'd stand on a table for. The guy I liked the most. Montgomery, just had a poor showing athletically, but I'll keep him on top of my list for now. Everyone is excited about a few key landing spots (KC, Philly, TB) but no one is all that excited about any of the prospects necessarily.
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Maybe it's just me but part of landing spot this year is that there are some really great fits and there are some career enders. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I'm reading it differently - sure there may be some people over excited about Metcalf in his thread, go figure, but I think a lot of the people calling for him to be the 1.01 are doing so reluctantly. All I keep hearing about this class in general is that landing spot is going to be the biggest factor in how we rank the rookies. Landing spots have always factored in but we also had guys that were locks to be top five rookie picks no matter where they landed by this point in the process. To me that says most people see some flaws in almost every prospect and are looking at upside and potential. I think it's a fairly deep WR class but I think every one of them raises at least one or two red flags as well.

I've also haven't been less excited about a RB class in quite sometime. There's a few guys I like ok, but no one I'd stand on a table for. The guy I liked the most. Montgomery, just had a poor showing athletically, but I'll keep him on top of my list for now. Everyone is excited about a few key landing spots (KC, Philly, TB) but no one is all that excited about any of the prospects necessarily.
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I am not sure I would call these things red flags, but there are issues with all of the top prospects. None of these players is a total slam dunk like Barkley, Gurley or Elliot were, and although the WR group does look good, I don't think they are as good as the 2014 WR class.

Metcalf had the injury and thus limited production. Which makes that aspect of evaluating him difficult. 26 receptions. There isn't a whole lot to watch. A large percentage of what you can watch is fantastic. The limited route tree coupled with the poor 3 cone has me wanting to watch him some more and see if I can see him struggle with change of direction ability in games.

Harry did not get a lot of separation on his routes, his timed speed at the combine was actually a positive, based on watching him I think he could have timed slower than that without surprising people. Harry has the fewest flaws though and for risk adverse drafters maybe the safest of the top prospects.

Butler had some questions about speed answered, but he has issues with drops.

AJ Brown had a solid time at the combine and would be the other guy besides Harry who doesn't have any big flaws I am aware of. Am I missing something?

Jacobs had limited action but not because of injury. That is more puzzling for me than Metcalf. Similarly what I have watched of Jacobs looks great, I just don't think I have seen enough of him to be fully confident in him (or Metcalf)

There are some other WR such as the guy from Notre Dame I haven't watched yet, but the above would be the main guys I could see being tier one type prospects. Harry and Brown don't have many flaws to me, I just question their upside somewhat as far as them having a top 12 fantasy season in their first 3 years. Metcalf and Jacobs have more upside to maybe do that.

 
Biabreakable said:
I am not sure I would call these things red flags, but there are issues with all of the top prospects. None of these players is a total slam dunk like Barkley, Gurley or Elliot were, and although the WR group does look good, I don't think they are as good as the 2014 WR class.

Metcalf had the injury and thus limited production. Which makes that aspect of evaluating him difficult. 26 receptions. There isn't a whole lot to watch. A large percentage of what you can watch is fantastic. The limited route tree coupled with the poor 3 cone has me wanting to watch him some more and see if I can see him struggle with change of direction ability in games.

Harry did not get a lot of separation on his routes, his timed speed at the combine was actually a positive, based on watching him I think he could have timed slower than that without surprising people. Harry has the fewest flaws though and for risk adverse drafters maybe the safest of the top prospects.

Butler had some questions about speed answered, but he has issues with drops.

AJ Brown had a solid time at the combine and would be the other guy besides Harry who doesn't have any big flaws I am aware of. Am I missing something?

Jacobs had limited action but not because of injury. That is more puzzling for me than Metcalf. Similarly what I have watched of Jacobs looks great, I just don't think I have seen enough of him to be fully confident in him (or Metcalf)

There are some other WR such as the guy from Notre Dame I haven't watched yet, but the above would be the main guys I could see being tier one type prospects. Harry and Brown don't have many flaws to me, I just question their upside somewhat as far as them having a top 12 fantasy season in their first 3 years. Metcalf and Jacobs have more upside to maybe do that.
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Watch Harry’s highlights and you will see he has an amazing ability to fake out defenders. He has great in game lateral start/stop ability. He’s my 1.01 unless Jacobs goes to a good spot in round 1. I prefer drafting RBs and then if need to trading them for established WRs. 

 
Biabreakable said:
I am not sure I would call these things red flags, but there are issues with all of the top prospects.
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Yeah - "red flags" was not the correct way to phrase it. Should have said they each have some flaws.

 
Good article. His times are fine and he will probably improve the at the pro day if he elects to run them. Guys that never ran the 3 cone & 20 SS: Calvin, Andre, Larry Fitz. There's a reason for that. Dez had a 4.46 20 SS. Deandre Hopkins a 4.47. most guys this size don't run those drills. Nkeal Harry didn't and probably won't at the pro day. If anything, it's a plus that he ran as many drills as he did.

 
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Faust said:
ARE D.K. METCALF’S AGILITY TIMES A CONCERN?
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Good article - and I value production on the football field over drills - but that’s the question I have with Metcalf and we can’t answer it because he got hurt. And his 3-cone and SS are so horrifically bad it’s scary. Tom Brady has faster times. Think about that for a sec. Not saying Metcalf won’t be good but when you have a guy like Harry with production to match athleticism, he’s the guy I’m taking over Metcalf.

 
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Gandalf said:
Good article - and I value production on the football field over drills - but that’s the question I have with Metcalf and we can’t answer it because he got hurt. And his 3-cone and SS are so horrifically bad it’s scary. Tom Brady has faster times. Think about that for a sec. Not saying Metcalf won’t be good but when you have a guy like Harry with production to match athleticism, he’s the guy I’m taking over Metcalf.
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I think we need to keep in mind that Harry forewent the 3C and SS.  If he opted to run them, he very well may have put up bad numbers.  They could be decent, but I think there is a reason he chose not to run them.  It has been well documented his lack of separation and winning contested catches, part of that may have shown up in his 3C and SS times, but we won't know for sure.  For me, I question if Harry can separate enough and D.K.'s production causes me concern.  Watching tape, D.K. jumps out to me more, but that is merely personal preference.

 
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Maven25 said:
I think we need to keep in mind that Harry forewent the 3C and SS.  If he opted to run them, he very well may have put up bad numbers.  They could be decent, but I think there is a reason he chose not to run them.  It has been well documented his lack of separation and winning contested catches, part of that may have shown up in his 3C and SS times, but we won't know for sure.  For me, I question if Harry can separate enough and D.K.'s production causes me concern.  Watching tape, D.K. jumps out to me more, but that is merely personal preference.
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There is plenty of college tape illustrating Harry’s lateral quickness and his ability to start/stop. The 3-cone and SS are less important numbers for him in my eyes

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Tom Brady had the same 3 cone as Randy Moss.  Think about that for a sec.
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Good point. These drills matter less than production on the field. But that’s the issue with Metcalf we just don’t have enough film of him. At 1.01 I want more of a sure thing. 

 
Gandalf said:
Good point. These drills matter less than production on the field. But that’s the issue with Metcalf we just don’t have enough film of him. At 1.01 I want more of a sure thing. 
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We all do, but that's just not going to happen in this draft class unless there's some kind of miracle trade on draft day.  1.01 is going to be nebulous, even after the NFL draft.

 
Gandalf said:
Good article - and I value production on the football field over drills - but that’s the question I have with Metcalf and we can’t answer it because he got hurt. And his 3-cone and SS are so horrifically bad it’s scary. Tom Brady has faster times. Think about that for a sec. Not saying Metcalf won’t be good but when you have a guy like Harry with production to match athleticism, he’s the guy I’m taking over Metcalf.
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What was Harry's 3 cone? Bet he doesn't run it at the pro day.

Metcalf slipped on his 3-cone and you only get 1 chance. Like I said before, if he works at it before the pro day and posts a better time, that is all I need to know about his character and ability. pic.twitter.com/T1OOmEeCs2

Whatcha gonna do when Baltimore takes Harry? Metcalf already solidified that he will be gone before they pick.

 
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Since 2003, 208 quarterbacks and 39 players to weigh over 300 pounds have run the three-cone drill in a faster time than Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf's 7.38 seconds.

Metcalf (6'3/228) struggled mightily in the 20-yard shuttle and three-cone drill, but absolutely scorched the 40-yard dash, running it in 4.33 seconds, the fastest time by a player of more than 225 pounds since 2003. How you weigh his combine on the whole depends on how much of a demerit you place on Metcalf due to his agility drills, because the rest of his workout (jumps included) was rather impressive. ESPN's Todd McShay pointed to the Ole Miss wideout's performance as one of the three best to take place in Indianapolis over the weekend. While we don't think that those agility marks can be dismissed outright -- they're very, very poor -- Metcalf may well have locked up a top-15 pick -- if not a top-10 pick -- with his other impressive marks.

SOURCE: NFL Research on Twitter

Mar 5, 2019, 12:10 PM
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Watched the gauntlet again. Metcalf looks plenty quick and agile. He reminds me of Josh Gordon more than anyone else.

 
Gandalf said:
Watched the gauntlet again. Metcalf looks plenty quick and agile. He reminds me of Josh Gordon more than anyone else.
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Yes, juiced up version of Gordon and Martavis- minus the issues off the field. He also looks a lot like Stephen Hill which is scary.

 
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