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Dr. BD

AJ Brown - WR Titans

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He got 7 targets, feel like I should be celebrating.  Needs to be getting 10+, he has WR1 skill set

 

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Just now, Rig24 said:

He got 7 targets, feel like I should be celebrating.  Needs to be getting 10+, he has WR1 skill set

 

He tweaked his ankle/calf issue that's been bothering him. At 153 yards, I'm happy regardless of target #.

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Wondering if elite is possible in year two with this guy

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1 minute ago, Bri said:

He tweaked his ankle/calf issue that's been bothering him. At 153 yards, I'm happy regardless of target #.

Didn't know that about his ankle.  My frustration is that I have to decide to protect him in a keeper league, leaning more and more to protecting him.

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Quote

A.J. Brown caught 5-of-7 targets for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the Titans' Week 14 win over the Raiders.

Brown continues to show a high-end ceiling as a second-round rookie. This week, he got the party started with a 91-yard touchdown that required a broken tackle and burners to get into the end zone. It showed off his top-notch athleticism, but he wasn't done. Brown caught a slant in the red zone a few plays later and truck sticked multiple Raiders defenders for a 16-yard score. The huge game makes a 1,000-yard season in reach. Brown has earned every-week WR3/4 respect with Ryan Tannehill playing well. The Titans host the beatable Texans secondary next.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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3 hours ago, SoBeDad said:

Tannehill is the #1 rated QB in the AFC.

Amazing. 6-1 as starter. 

And Brown is a monster. 

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5 hours ago, Rig24 said:

Didn't know that about his ankle.  My frustration is that I have to decide to protect him in a keeper league, leaning more and more to protecting him.

My last keeper spot where I own him will be between AJ Brown, Lockett, Dio and Unicorn. AJ is going to be a beast year 2. I'll probably go with him over Lockett.

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On 11/24/2019 at 10:36 PM, Zyphros said:

His thread has been the quietest of anyone since the combine.  Nobody pays attention to him that much and I love it.  Keep thinking he's underrated people, don't let hype elevate his value, cause I can't wait to steal him in the 7th round next year.  

He'll be early 4th at the latest - Chris Godwin-type hype this offseason incoming.

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6 hours ago, Truebluey said:

He'll be early 4th at the latest - Chris Godwin-type hype this offseason incoming.

Probably moved up a round for every week since I said that haha, you’re probably right.  But he’s still unnoticed by the masses of how good he’s been, and the threat of his starting QB under questions he might be an undervalued guy in drafts next year. 

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What the hell was I thinking playing Snell over Brown?  Looks like it's going to cost me.  👇

Edited by JohnnyU

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

What the hell was I thinking playing Snell over Brown?  Looks like it's going to cost me.  👇

Join the club. Still a defensible move. He's been boom or bust with that target share. 

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10 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Join the club. Still a defensible move. He's been boom or bust with that target share. 

certainly not a horrible move 24 hours ago. 

I'm not a fan of Snell or the PIT backfield. so I may have started Brown. But Brown was very boom/bust heading into this week

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

certainly not a horrible move 24 hours ago. 

I'm not a fan of Snell or the PIT backfield. so I may have started Brown. But Brown was very boom/bust heading into this week

Maybe, but think about this for minute.  When your league draft took place would someone actually believe Snell should be played over Brown?  I'm a Snell homer, but I was much higher on Brown and so was everyone else.  Then when it counted the most (playoffs) I play Snell over Brown.  I need my head examined 😠

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With Evans likely done for the year, I am hoping that AJ will continue to get more targets for the fantasy playoffs.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

What the hell was I thinking playing Snell over Brown?  Looks like it's going to cost me.  👇

Did the same, still a decent play. Brown had low volume and Snell a solid 4+ YPC in a game he'd probably get 15+ carries. Didn't count on the fumble and the inability to punch it in.

41 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Maybe, but think about this for minute.  When your league draft took place would someone actually believe Snell should be played over Brown?  I'm a Snell homer, but I was much higher on Brown and so was everyone else.  Then when it counted the most (playoffs) I play Snell over Brown.  I need my head examined 😠

If you're making decisions now based on the draft 3-4 months ago ... yeah.

Edited by The Frankman

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3 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

What the hell was I thinking playing Snell over Brown?  Looks like it's going to cost me.  👇

Wouldn't get too down on that decision.  Basically depends on if you were the favorite or underdog.  Favorite I would have leaned Snell.  Underdog I would have gone Brown for upside.  Bloom had Brown ranked higher than Snell in his rankings.  Dodds had them ranked about even.  Either way it was a tough call.

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Brown is just so much fun to watch. Just a monster. I wonder, has Tannahill played his way into a contact extension and starter next year? As a Brown owner, coming into this season I was hoping for sure the Titans drafted a new QB...now, I'm not so sure I care. :shrug:

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8 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Brown is just so much fun to watch. Just a monster. I wonder, has Tannahill played his way into a contact extension and starter next year? As a Brown owner, coming into this season I was hoping for sure the Titans drafted a new QB...now, I'm not so sure I care. :shrug:

Re-signing Tannehill to be the starter is the plan. Reports are they are already working on it but won’t be done until the offseason.

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16 minutes ago, starks said:

Whats his price check for 2020? Owner of the 1.02 coming after him and I am stacked at WR 

funny. I was just coming in here to see what his value was compared to 1.01. I am hoping he gets a little more hype (maybe godwin hype) to push for that kind of value. 

If hes pushing hard for aj brown I'd push for 1.02 absolutely. 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Grain of salt in a developing WR and a developing offense.

Brown had zero targets when double-covered the last two games. All came against single (no near) coverage.  Davis failed last two games to really take advantage, so Tajae saw his snaps go up. He and the rest came through pretty good in this one.

There will come a day that Tannehill has to hit Brown (and he get open) when he's got double-coverage but...not yet. 

This is great as a Titans fan because first off, Tannehill is so much more mature and sooo "not doing what he did before."  Arthur Smith is confident in his weapons and doing a good job reacting to get them involved. Blasingame looks like he's got same game- college runner, NFL FB. Tajae doing these one cut routes which is about all he can do but he's pretty good at those. Using Jonnu's speed, Firkser's getting a whole lot of attention for a guy that hasn't produced that much so he's using that. The Titans had 2RBs, 2 TEs, and a FB line up at WR last game. (The stage is setup so well for Davis if he would just come through) It's really perfect on so many levels. 

They're not "win the Supe" good nor perfect. I think the Saints are going to show the world some chinks in their armor, but that's OK before the playoffs. I do think they can beat an injured Texans team- I don't know about twice, but certainly once. 

Delanie was talking about Brown and double-coverage this summer and all he was teaching him. I remember he said how Brown had to NOT rely on his strength but his quickness then. You can see he isn't doing that yet. He's muscling up one guy while the other lies in wait. That won't work.

His issue in the draft was lack of deep speed and speed in general. The Titans fixed his take off right away and it was so obvious how explosive and how much better he did that. (Kudos to Rob Moore, why doesn't Davis listen to you and fix this too) On Sunday, he was so OMG fast off the line a few times so somehow he's getting even better at it. One guy I read indicated that the defenses are going to have to give him a cushion and the Titans are going to have to throw screens to him to counter that.

Double coverage factor would indicate less passes, screens would indicate more targets. 

BTW Although I enjoy the Boldin and Boston comparisons, I wish Delanie got more action in San Fran when he was young. He swears Brown looks like him.

 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

funny. I was just coming in here to see what his value was compared to 1.01. I am hoping he gets a little more hype (maybe godwin hype) to push for that kind of value. 

If hes pushing hard for aj brown I'd push for 1.02 absolutely. 

Honest question, what can be had at 1.02 that offers more upside AJ does?  
 

I’m not sure I’ve been as excited about a year 2 guy as I am about AJ in a long time. With him, Chark and Gallup anchoring my WR core I can’t wait for next years draft.

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1 minute ago, dkp993 said:

Honest question, what can be had at 1.02 that offers more upside AJ does?  
 

I’m not sure I’ve been as excited about a year 2 guy as I am about AJ in a long time. With him, Chark and Gallup anchoring my WR core I can’t wait for next years draft.

Taylor/swift have big potential but Brown has shown he can do it already. I expect Brown to be the hot name going into 2020.Very possible he is worth 1.1

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Taylor/swift have big potential but Brown has shown he can do it already. I expect Brown to be the hot name going into 2020.Very possible he is worth 1.1

Yeah I’m not sure anybody can pry him out of my cold dead hands. At least certainly from a single pick standpoint.   The package would have to be super compelling.  

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this dude is like Juju Smith-Schuster, Anquan Boldin, Derrick Henry and Kenny Britt wrapped into one

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On ‎12‎/‎9‎/‎2019 at 9:34 AM, Rig24 said:

With Evans likely done for the year, I am hoping that AJ will continue to get more targets for the fantasy playoffs.

yup, Brown will be replacing Evans in my lineup. Hope he and Tannehill stay hot.

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13 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Taylor/swift have big potential but Brown has shown he can do it already. I expect Brown to be the hot name going into 2020.Very possible he is worth 1.1

Definitely not, and I’ll like him a lot, but that’s not realistic. I’d say closer to the 1.06.

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1 hour ago, voiceofunreason said:

Definitely not, and I’ll like him a lot, but that’s not realistic. I’d say closer to the 1.06.

while I admit it's a little much, hear me out...

he was in the conversation for 1.1 last year, and fell mostly due to his destination. He has proven he has what it takes, and his qb situation has improved above and beyond what anyone could possibly hope for; people were assuming a rookie next year and they have a top 10 statistical qb at this point. 

You can talk about 2020 hype compared to 2019, but at the end of the day any of those players could be the next Corey Davis or Trent Richardson. Rookie picks are always 50/50. If Brown continues to play well he could be looking at a top 15 wr going into 2020. He is already wr29. 

It's probably not enough, you're right, for 1.1, but I wouldn't expect a whole lot more needed if he finishes the season strong. As it stands now, AJ Brown is worth 17 points on Hinderlys chart, and that's before last weeks game. If he finishes december with a couple more gems its conceivable for him to be hand in hand with his former teammate, DK Metcalf, at 25 (if he isn't already after last weeks game). An early first is worth 24 on Hinderlys chart...

Edited by Dr. Dan
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Throwing him in over OBJ, similar floor and ceiling but I have seen more ceiling games from AJ. 

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On 12/9/2019 at 10:07 AM, tombonneau said:

Join the club. Still a defensible move. He's been boom or bust with that target share. 

Humphries being out and OBJ's groin made the call easy for me.  I've been high on him since NFL draft time... Just hated the landing spot.

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On 12/9/2019 at 10:34 AM, Rig24 said:

With Evans likely done for the year, I am hoping that AJ will continue to get more targets for the fantasy playoffs.

I see my waiver claim of $2 was enough to get AJ Brown dropping Evans. Three others had bids in. FAAB Money is scarce now.

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I have him in one dynasty and I’m thrilled. I’m bummed I didn’t take him in my two others. 
 

I'm starting him this week in my semifinal. To me the only limit I see now and maybe long term is volume. But I’m a lot more worried about that for this weekend!

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20 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Definitely not, and I’ll like him a lot, but that’s not realistic. I’d say closer to the 1.06.

Wait, they are talking rookie picks - are you?  I mean I can't imagine you're talking 1.06 in startup, but can you really prefer 5 unknown rookies to him?

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20 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Wait, they are talking rookie picks - are you?  I mean I can't imagine you're talking 1.06 in startup, but can you really prefer 5 unknown rookies to him?

He may be talking about what you could expect to get right now.  Without knowing exactly who's coming out and where they are going, you've got a lotto ticket.  Plus, AJ Brown still has a change of an injury the next few weeks (God forbid).  If you have a top 5 rookie pick right now in this supposed very good rookie draft, would you move it for Brown straight up?  Today?

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Regarding Brown’s value vs the top 2020 rookie picks I’m a little torn. I value him very highly but I wonder about a few things:

- is Tannehill his QB next year and if so can he maintain a proximate level of play?

- if not, who is the Titans QB going forward?

- Maybe most important, do we have reason to believe the target volume in this offense will increase? I could see “yes” based on him being the primary guy but what does the development of the offense look like going forward as far as pass/run balance (I’m actually asking as I don’t follow TN)

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25 minutes ago, DAG said:

Regarding Brown’s value vs the top 2020 rookie picks I’m a little torn. I value him very highly but I wonder about a few things:

- is Tannehill his QB next year and if so can he maintain a proximate level of play?

- if not, who is the Titans QB going forward?

- Maybe most important, do we have reason to believe the target volume in this offense will increase? I could see “yes” based on him being the primary guy but what does the development of the offense look like going forward as far as pass/run balance (I’m actually asking as I don’t follow TN)

Back-up quarterbacks and rookie quarterbacks are putting up numbers at a high rate now. When it comes to young receivers, once I see talent AND production at the NFL level, I'm less concerned about situation than I used to be. Coaches and QBs change so quickly it's almost pointless to look beyond one season. 

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4 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Wait, they are talking rookie picks - are you?  I mean I can't imagine you're talking 1.06 in startup, but can you really prefer 5 unknown rookies to him?

Yes a rookie draft, just like the previous 10 posts above mine. But you already knew that.

This will probably be the most hyped rookie draft class in recent memory. I’d say Swift, Etienne, Taylor, and Jeudy are sure things to have more value then him in a month. I’d say Lamb is above him but it starts getting close there.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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7 hours ago, DAG said:

Regarding Brown’s value vs the top 2020 rookie picks I’m a little torn. I value him very highly but I wonder about a few things:

- is Tannehill his QB next year and if so can he maintain a proximate level of play?

- if not, who is the Titans QB going forward?

- Maybe most important, do we have reason to believe the target volume in this offense will increase? I could see “yes” based on him being the primary guy but what does the development of the offense look like going forward as far as pass/run balance (I’m actually asking as I don’t follow TN)

I think it's probable to assume his target volume goes up if Walker moves on. Especially with the similarities between the two

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8 hours ago, DAG said:

Regarding Brown’s value vs the top 2020 rookie picks I’m a little torn. I value him very highly but I wonder about a few things:

- is Tannehill his QB next year and if so can he maintain a proximate level of play?

- if not, who is the Titans QB going forward?

- Maybe most important, do we have reason to believe the target volume in this offense will increase? I could see “yes” based on him being the primary guy but what does the development of the offense look like going forward as far as pass/run balance (I’m actually asking as I don’t follow TN)

Tannehill and Titans are negotiating for that to happen

His 7 targets probably don't go up any. That's fairly regular for #1s

He has work to do in the short game. We're all loving his long catch and runs but he can certainly improve his craft like Fitz and Rice would say. If he does that, sure his targets could increase but I still think 8 seems like a reasonable number.

The Titans have had excellent success with Mariota to a TE and it's been spotty this year regardless of QB. It's been good, not excellent. (Blasingame has two good games in two weeks) Jonnu could come on as the season closes and then he would probably be a considerable increase type guy for 2020. If he has to keep playing FB (they have lined Blasingame at WR for matchups) then we won't see that preliminary boost we like before next year.

Humphries NOT catching all those slants from the slot is still a mystery. Again...if they close the season and this expected change happens, I'd project an increase for him in 2020.

The #2 WR doesn't have much of a role and won't have much of a role. Could be Davis. Could be a re-signed Tajae. Could be Raymond ...whatever.

Cameron Batson is a significant threat to Humphries' slot role. They really like that kid and that's like all he can do as a speedy lil bugger. The wildest (but oh so frustratingly true for Titans) thought I heard was what if they never planned on Humphries in the slot, but Batson.

Last week they played a lot of their HUGE offense and it's only been sprinkled in before. It was a camp staple, they finally went to it, and the D couldn't handle it. FB, RBs, TEs, and Brown making up 3 WRs often times on one side. Every single one is bigger than the CB covering them and ya can't predict it by who goes into the huddle. Watch this twist as the season wears on. If they fall in love with it, this is in Brown's favor too. Aside from a rare turn, I think the rest are catch N tackle guys while Brown could go the distance

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1 minute ago, matttyl said:

Is Davis even rosterable now?

for dynasty, you have to. You'll just drop him to pickup another WR with less potential than him

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On 12/11/2019 at 9:49 AM, matttyl said:

He may be talking about what you could expect to get right now.  Without knowing exactly who's coming out and where they are going, you've got a lotto ticket.  Plus, AJ Brown still has a change of an injury the next few weeks (God forbid).  If you have a top 5 rookie pick right now in this supposed very good rookie draft, would you move it for Brown straight up?  Today?

4-5?  In a flash.  Top 2-3 gets murkier, especially with ROS risk still going.  But if the season were over today I'd give 3 for him if I had to.  #1 I would hold simply because I know come May it will be worth far more than it is now and Brown probably won't.  So really only #2 would give me pause but gun to my head I hold it, as it's also likely at least one of those stud rookie RBs lands in a perfect spot, so that plus whatever RB KCC drafts makes it likely they are worth more.  But I have seen too many combines and NFL drafts go sideways and all of a sudden 1.05 has a lot less shine on it.  Looking back at last five drafts none of them I would have (on that draft day) preferred 1.05 over a current AJ Brown. 

I know this draft is loaded but AJ was lots of peoples' #1 ranked WR last year (he was mine) but the situation stunk.  That's cleared up and Davis has confirmed bum status - two very significant developments I would not have expected so quickly/resoundingly.  I don't draft rookie WRs so I'd happily take a guy that's shown out on the field like AJ did over Lamb or Jeudy - and I am in lust with both as football players.

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19 hours ago, matttyl said:

Is Davis even rosterable now?

It's the prototype "no but yes" situation we suffered with Devante Parker.  No, not really, but as Bri said, who are you dropping him for at this point?  Tim Patrick?  What can you trade him for, a 3rd?  He's a full-on hold until May.

Signed,

Bitter all-in Davis homer.

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

It's the prototype "no but yes" situation we suffered with Devante Parker.  No, not really, but as Bri said, who are you dropping him for at this point?  Tim Patrick?  What can you trade him for, a 3rd?  He's a full-on hold until May.

Signed,

Bitter all-in Davis homer.

This is the right viewpoint. Somehow I managed to trade Corey Davis and 2.4 for Gallup and 3.6 in early October

I think I made out great

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Might he a WDIS post but idc; I'd rather be honest about it than try and be sneaky... but might gauge some week 15 expectations for others. 

Starting over Gallup right now for me

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Might he a WDIS post but idc; I'd rather be honest about it than try and be sneaky... but might gauge some week 15 expectations for others. 

Starting over Gallup right now for me

Currently behind A Rob but I’m on the fence. 

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1 minute ago, GoBirds said:

Currently behind A Rob but I’m on the fence. 

I'd play ARob- guy looks like a stud and you know Chicago will be passing

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