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AquaBliss

FanDuel Week 13

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Question's gonna be, which cheap KC option do you pick? Ware or Conley, now that Sammy Watkins is out? And, how much does this impact the overall game script for KC & Oakland? My concern with Ware is that KC is the road favorite which, for DFS purposes, is a situation we approach with caution. Hunt may well be/have been the kind of guy that would be match-up proof, but, is Ware? I'm not so sure, not at this point. 

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10 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Question's gonna be, which cheap KC option do you pick? Ware or Conley, now that Sammy Watkins is out? And, how much does this impact the overall game script for KC & Oakland? My concern with Ware is that KC is the road favorite which, for DFS purposes, is a situation we approach with caution. Hunt may well be/have been the kind of guy that would be match-up proof, but, is Ware? I'm not so sure, not at this point. 

The more I looked at stuff, the less I liked Hunt this week, and was planning on not using him much.  The price makes me think about Ware, but if he is going to be super owned, I am thinking about going more to the Mahommes/Hill/Kelce side.  

I like how the FBGs podcast gave a warning about road favorites burning people historically and how some of these situations could be traps, especially at the RB spots.  

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He was released due to domestic violence caught on tape.  Not sure anyone will want to pick him up too soon.

Edit: Oops N/M, he is on NFL exempt list, no one can pick up.

Edited by AquaBliss

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17 minutes ago, AquaBliss said:

He was released due to domestic violence caught on tape.  Not sure anyone will want to pick him up too soon.

Edit: Oops N/M, he is on NFL exempt list, no one can pick up.

As more of the story comes out, he was released because he lied to chiefs brass when they asked him about this back when it happened. From what i've seen, the video negates what he told the higher ups, so they cut him. People are very quick to forget that Ware was almost the starting KC RB, if my memory serves me, it was some lingering injury issues that gave Hunt the first crack at the main job (that he never gave up). I dont think KC misses that much of a beat offensively with Ware instead of Hunt. Just my 2 cents. 

At Ware's price of 5200, its damn near impossible he doesn't hit 2-3x value. He will be all over my cash lineups. Probably fade him in GPP's because of likely high ownership and a questionable ceiling. 

Hunt is done for this year, but i'd assume he is on a team as soon as next year. I dont agree with what he did AT ALL, its disgusting for a man to physically assault a woman, but there are plenty of players still in the league after similar situations. 

Edited by jerseys finest

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If I heard a pod right, I think they said that the Broncos have lost the last 6-7 east coast games by double digit points?  Granted it's Cincy, but I know one of them were arguing that it's a prime spot for a Broncos let down.  (I believe this was while they were debating if Lindsay was cash viable.)

 

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34 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

90% cash

ill fade in gpp but will not play much this week. To much of a value not to play

Oof.  I am assuming the core build is McCaffrey/Jones/Ware + Ebron or Brate?   

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24 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Oof.  I am assuming the core build is McCaffrey/Jones/Ware + Ebron or Brate?   

That was my opinion but remember when a $8600 gurley was 80% cask owned?

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6 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

That was my opinion but remember when a $8600 gurley was 80% cask owned?

For sure anything can happen.  Like you suggested - some of these ownerships are nuts and game theory would suggest you fade the likes of Ware and Ebron in gpps.   TE is easier, but it's not like there is a great pivot off Ware at that price, so you are looking at a completely different roster build (which again, isn't a bad thing in gpps).  

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

90% cash

ill fade in gpp but will not play much this week. To much of a value not to play

Unpack the last part.

BnB will fade Ware in GPP.  BnB will not play much GPP this week.  Ware is too much of a value not to play.

Yes?

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Also - a few specific questions about a couple popular WRs that I don't get: Woods and Godwin.   

I am all over the Rams passing game this week, so I get that part, but it really seems like Cooks has stepped into the bigger role over the last few weeks and Woods hit just 2x for the first time in 5 weeks last week.   I just figured that Cooks would be the better gpp play on the fast track, so was surprised at the projections.  

As for Godwin, everything that I hear and read says that Winston prefers Evans/Humphries/Brate.  Am I missing something or are people just thinking D.Jax's deep balls automatically go to Godwin?  

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30 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

As for Godwin, everything that I hear and read says that Winston prefers Evans/Humphries/Brate.  Am I missing something or are people just thinking D.Jax's deep balls automatically go to Godwin?  

Humphries is a legitimate threat to Goodwin's targets.

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With Garcon and Goodwin out, Pettis now a good GPP play.

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11 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

Humphries is a legitimate threat to Goodwin's targets.

I thought so too.  I will just take a stab at Humphries at 1/4 the ownership.  

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Current line up:  Daniels/McCaffrey, Jones, Ware/Hopkins, Hill, Davis/Brate/Green Bay   

Not sure I want the double dose of KC, but I think Ware is pretty much a must have in cash.  Maybe I'll move off Hill.  Not real confident in Davis either, but his price point fit well with what I had left.  I wouldn't mind sliding Lockett into that 3rd WR slot, but would need to find another $800 to make that happen.  Stepping down in Defense and coming off Hill may allow that.

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Here is another idea I am tinkering with...  Daniel/Gurley, McCaffrey, Ware/Hopkins, Adams, Ellington/Brate/Arizona

Don't like the defense and not sure about Ellington (status or projection), but damn, look at the studs in there.  Gurley, McCaffrey, Ware, Hopkins, and Adams may be able to hit the cash line without the other 4 :D

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Grr that TB/Carolina game.  I just can't get myself to stack up that game (which means I better have 1 cheap gpp of that game stack).   Ended up on Goff for cash.   Rams have been passing more and more in the last few weeks, and the Lions have been good vs. the run during that time.  I am counting on McVay to realize this and keep on passing.  Right now I have:

Goff - McCaffrey/Jones/Ware - Cooks/Humphries/Davis - Ebron - GB.    This has 300 left, so I am staring at that WR1 spot - do I do the stack, or go with Thielen?  

 

I have 5 gpp entries.  FD I am going to do a couple Mahomes, and then 2-3 of something else - leaning Watson right now.  

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4 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Here is another idea I am tinkering with...  Daniel/Gurley, McCaffrey, Ware/Hopkins, Adams, Ellington/Brate/Arizona

Don't like the defense and not sure about Ellington (status or projection), but damn, look at the studs in there.  Gurley, McCaffrey, Ware, Hopkins, and Adams may be able to hit the cash line without the other 4 :D

AZ is my punt gpp D that I wrote down.  Weather looks to be a little rough in GB, and let's not pretend that GB has been acting like SB contenders or anything... 

I just about pooped myself when I saw Daniel on Dodds' list for core/cash games.  Again, I would have told you to not go with Jackson, so you be you... 

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So I’ve been up and down the last few weeks and keeping my opinions to myself, but my cheap wrs keep hitting so here are some good cheap options.

sanders $7000- great matchup and he’s been pretty solid all year, seems like a low risk bargain at 7k

DJ Moore $6400- has secured the #1 role imo, should get 7-10 targets and has been very efficient. 

Corey Davis $5900- has been showing signs of life the last few weeks, I’ll take my chance with him over other sub 6k options. 

Josh Reynolds$5800- I’ll mention Everett here as well as Detroit has struggled to stop tes. And wrs. Reynolds May only get a few targets but he can do a lot with that. 

Curtis Samuel $5500- another low volume option in a good matchup. He will have a few manufactured plays though and has a td 3 of the last 4 weeks. 

Sutton $5400- great matchup for Denver, in fact I’m all over a Denver stack for gpp. Game flow may take the wrs out if it. 

MVS $5200- with them activating kumerow it probably means Cobb isn’t back this week. He hasn’t done much lately but in that offense it can happen anytime. 

Marcel Ateman $4600- 10 targets last week, KC this week, super cheap target hog. Throw ware, ateman, brate out there and load up on studs?

 

Godwin, Pettis, conley deserve a mention. 

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

So I’ve been up and down the last few weeks and keeping my opinions to myself, but my cheap wrs keep hitting so here are some good cheap options.

sanders $7000- great matchup and he’s been pretty solid all year, seems like a low risk bargain at 7k

DJ Moore $6400- has secured the #1 role imo, should get 7-10 targets and has been very efficient. 

Corey Davis $5900- has been showing signs of life the last few weeks, I’ll take my chance with him over other sub 6k options. 

Josh Reynolds$5800- I’ll mention Everett here as well as Detroit has struggled to stop tes. And wrs. Reynolds May only get a few targets but he can do a lot with that. 

Curtis Samuel $5500- another low volume option in a good matchup. He will have a few manufactured plays though and has a td 3 of the last 4 weeks. 

Sutton $5400- great matchup for Denver, in fact I’m all over a Denver stack for gpp. Game flow may take the wrs out if it. 

MVS $5200- with them activating kumerow it probably means Cobb isn’t back this week. He hasn’t done much lately but in that offense it can happen anytime. 

Marcel Ateman $4600- 10 targets last week, KC this week, super cheap target hog. Throw ware, ateman, brate out there and load up on studs?

 

Godwin, Pettis, conley deserve a mention. 

Good list.  Several of those names have drifted in and out of my line up drafts through the week.  With McCaffrey as an anchor in my line up, I will leave the Carolina guys out.  Hard not to like the Denver guys with Cincy in the cross hairs.  I sort of think this may be the week for Sutton to finally shine.  I just don't have enough confidence in that gut feeling to pin my hopes on him.  I am playing him in my season long league.  Could be a big Lindsay day too.  Reynolds seems like a great way to get a piece of the Rams, but with Cooks, Woods, and Gurley there are only so many balls to go around, but they have shown they can get all these guys involved before.

MVS seems to have disappeared.  I am not going there.  Ateman wasn't even on my radar.  He probably should be with 10 targets last week, but only 3 catches?  I'm not going there either.

At the moment, Davis is the cheap guy in my line up.  

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17 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Also - a few specific questions about a couple popular WRs that I don't get: Woods and Godwin.   

I am all over the Rams passing game this week, so I get that part, but it really seems like Cooks has stepped into the bigger role over the last few weeks and Woods hit just 2x for the first time in 5 weeks last week.   I just figured that Cooks would be the better gpp play on the fast track, so was surprised at the projections.  

As for Godwin, everything that I hear and read says that Winston prefers Evans/Humphries/Brate.  Am I missing something or are people just thinking D.Jax's deep balls automatically go to Godwin?  

The love for woods is he is either playing out of the slot or the 2 spot. Cooks looks to get locked down by Slay (he could still have a good game, but slay is a beast)

I'm split on godwin and humphries honestly. I'm with you in that i believe godwin gets the DJax targets. Problem is, winston and djax never really hit as much as Fitz/Djax did. He prefers Evans on the 15+ yard plays. But carolina has been a mesh cloth on defense lately. They are all in play, problem is, which one goes balls out today. i rank them Evans - Brate - Humphries/Godwin - barber(yes, he is cheap and in play, but i only have the stones to put him into 1 free gpp)

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38 minutes ago, jerseys finest said:

The love for woods is he is either playing out of the slot or the 2 spot. Cooks looks to get locked down by Slay (he could still have a good game, but slay is a beast)

I'm split on godwin and humphries honestly. I'm with you in that i believe godwin gets the DJax targets. Problem is, winston and djax never really hit as much as Fitz/Djax did. He prefers Evans on the 15+ yard plays. But carolina has been a mesh cloth on defense lately. They are all in play, problem is, which one goes balls out today. i rank them Evans - Brate - Humphries/Godwin - barber(yes, he is cheap and in play, but i only have the stones to put him into 1 free gpp)

Good info.  I thought I heard that Slay hasn't been great this year, and they do move Cooks around a bit.  

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I keep building out w/ 2-3 Chiefs in Ware (no brainer imo, don’t overthink it), Kelce, and Hill. I love each of them in a vacuum, but get 50-ish points out of those 3 seems less likely than getting 20 out of each in a vacuum. 

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2 minutes ago, Tennessee_ATO said:

I keep building out w/ 2-3 Chiefs in Ware (no brainer imo, don’t overthink it), Kelce, and Hill. I love each of them in a vacuum, but get 50-ish points out of those 3 seems less likely than getting 20 out of each in a vacuum. 

Agreed.  I am going cheap at TE, but I have Ware and Hill in my line up.  I am a little worried about that, but it still feels solid/safe to me.  That probably means I am in trouble...

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16 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Agreed.  I am going cheap at TE, but I have Ware and Hill in my line up.  I am a little worried about that, but it still feels solid/safe to me.  That probably means I am in trouble...

But man, Oakland really is horrible. 

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My 3 week win streak comes crashing to a halt.  Hill was a dud.  Brate didn't hit value.  Hopkins fell short of expectations.  GB defense disappoints.  Oh well.  Single line up cash game is an all or nothing proposition for me.   $24 in - $0 out. :(

Edited by Galileo

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29 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

F James Conner.  

I know...I need Big Ben in a Big way for my season league playoff hopes...

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Just now, Galileo said:

I know...I need Big Ben in a Big way for my season league playoff hopes...

I stupidly tried some single game stuff, and of course since he hasn't done jack in a few weeks, I went all passing attack.  Passing game is starting to roll, but need to overcome him and his 2Tds at 50+%.  

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I ended a 3-4 week losing streak.  Will post numbers later when they transpire, but good week.   Mahommes, Mcaffrey, conley, kelce, giants.

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Epically bad week.  Looks like I am going to go about 2 for 35 in lineups.  

I highly doubt I’ve ever had a bigger dud of percentage returned than this main slate.  59 in, 2.75 back, 1.7%. That’s 75 cents back on a quarter toss-in lineup and 1 double up barely cashing. Had a number of 2x miss by less than a point. Looks like I’ll win more overall $$ from a $2 Thurs-Mon gpp.

I should have listened to myself when I had a weird feeling about the optimizer this week. 

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On 12/1/2018 at 1:55 PM, jdoggydogg said:

With Garcon and Goodwin out, Pettis now a good GPP play.

:thumbup:

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The passing games fired up, so I ended up hitting a couple on the single game.  Still down about $10 on FD, but up almost $30 on Dk thanks to the showdown again.  

I should have known to walk away when it a super chalky week, as those never seem to end well for me.   On to week 14 since MNF is kind of trash so I don't feel like thinking about that single game slate.  

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On 12/1/2018 at 4:18 PM, Bobcat10 said:

Unpack the last part.

BnB will fade Ware in GPP.  BnB will not play much GPP this week.  Ware is too much of a value not to play.

Yes?

Yes

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Finally won a $250 wffc ticket. Mahommes gurley Jones white Conley woods Godwin brate rams

 

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8 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Finally won a $250 wffc ticket. Mahommes gurley Jones white Conley woods Godwin brate rams

 

Nice job! My brother won 9 last week and I have been jealous, but I think I got 3 of them this week. All thanks to you and the strategy you posted about with overlay numbers.

ETA: it was only 2 not 3

Edited by smbkrypt24

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Total for this week:

$99 cash in $101 cash out plus tickets.

(8) 2.50 super satellite.

(1) 4.44 nba

(1) $44 nba

(2) $250 wffc

 

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Just an illustration on how difficult this hobby is:

MY 25 CENT TICKET THAT WON $10

QB Russell Wilson 24.8
RB Doug Martin 11.7
RB Saquon Barkley 16.1
WR Dante Pettis 27.2
WR Robert Woods 16.3
TE Travis Kelce 32.8
FLEX Todd Gurley II 30
SuperFlex Nick Mullens 23.66

MY SUNDAY MILLION $9.99 TICKET THAT WON $20

QB Cam Newton 19.3
RB Todd Gurley II 30
RB T.J. Yeldon 10
WR Josh Gordon 13.3
WR Dante Pettis 27.2
WR Tyreek Hill 5.5
TE Eric Ebron 10.2
FLEX Phillip Lindsay 28.4
DEF Carolina Panthers 6

HERE'S THE $300,000 SUNDAY MILLION WINNER

QB Josh Allen 30.74
RB Todd Gurley II 30
RB Christian McCaffrey 26.6
WR Chris Godwin 18.6
WR Courtland Sutton 16.5
WR Jarvis Landry 13.3
TE Travis Kelce 32.8
FLEX Tarik Cohen 28.64
DEF Green Bay Packers 3

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