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Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (1 Viewer)

wgoldsph said:
Corey Davis - what makes you still believe?
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He didn't NOT produce, just not at an elite level.  I'm chalking it up to 3 years of development because of coming from a small school.  Along with Mariota his QB who is probably just a safer version of Alex Smith when it comes to taking chances.  That says a lot to me.  Pretty sure he had one of the highest separation rates by ANY WR this year as well.  Needs a new situation, I'm still on board and I'll never quit.  This might even be a conservative ranking.  

JohnnyU said:
Especially considering how he underachieved in college for all you stat heads ;)   Before you blame his QB, Edwards played four years.  Also, if he is so good you have to ask why he played 4 years in college.  For me that throws up a flag most of the time, but not always.  In Edward's case it does because he never really excelled in college in any of his 4 years.
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Deebo was 4 years does he suck?  He also never really excelled in college any of his 4 years at the same school.  It's the closest thing you'll find for apples to apples and yet Edwards had 1000 more yards than Deebo did his 4 years.  I definitely downgrade senior WR's most of the time, and it is a slight red flag, but Edwards was that good on film.  Plus a 17.7 breakout age doesn't hurt.  

I knew I'd get questions on Bryan Edwards and Mike Evans ha.  Edwards is a beast, my favorite WR in this years draft besides Higgins.  He does everything well, dominant in college even though his stats don't show it.  His market share was good, but people point to the counting stats to say he sucked.  He didn't.  Just from watching him, what gave me confidence was he sinks the best out of all the WR's from this class that I went through (other than Reagor).  For a big guy, that was impressive.  He was their primary option a lot of the time, bad QB, Deebo opposite and Edwards still outproduced him overall in college across their 4 years.  

I do find it funny that the controversy is Edwards at 14, but if I put Jeudy there, nobody would question it.  Edwards is better than Jeudy in every way.  

I think Godwin took over as the #1 on that offense.  They can support 2 WR's so Evans might be a bit low here, but with the QB question looming I'm being a little conservative on Evans.  Still bullish on Godwin though.  Younger and all.  Downgraded Evans for being 26 (27 by season start), even though that's prime production usually, I heavily favor the youth side of things in startups.  If I didn't favor the youth so much, Evans would likely lead the tier at 14.  

 
Zyphros said:
He didn't NOT produce, just not at an elite level.  I'm chalking it up to 3 years of development because of coming from a small school.  Along with Mariota his QB who is probably just a safer version of Alex Smith when it comes to taking chances.  That says a lot to me.  Pretty sure he had one of the highest separation rates by ANY WR this year as well.  Needs a new situation, I'm still on board and I'll never quit.  This might even be a conservative ranking.  

Deebo was 4 years does he suck?  He also never really excelled in college any of his 4 years at the same school.  It's the closest thing you'll find for apples to apples and yet Edwards had 1000 more yards than Deebo did his 4 years.  I definitely downgrade senior WR's most of the time, and it is a slight red flag, but Edwards was that good on film.  Plus a 17.7 breakout age doesn't hurt.  

I knew I'd get questions on Bryan Edwards and Mike Evans ha.  Edwards is a beast, my favorite WR in this years draft besides Higgins.  He does everything well, dominant in college even though his stats don't show it.  His market share was good, but people point to the counting stats to say he sucked.  He didn't.  Just from watching him, what gave me confidence was he sinks the best out of all the WR's from this class that I went through (other than Reagor).  For a big guy, that was impressive.  He was their primary option a lot of the time, bad QB, Deebo opposite and Edwards still outproduced him overall in college across their 4 years.  

I do find it funny that the controversy is Edwards at 14, but if I put Jeudy there, nobody would question it.  Edwards is better than Jeudy in every way.  

I think Godwin took over as the #1 on that offense.  They can support 2 WR's so Evans might be a bit low here, but with the QB question looming I'm being a little conservative on Evans.  Still bullish on Godwin though.  Younger and all.  Downgraded Evans for being 26 (27 by season start), even though that's prime production usually, I heavily favor the youth side of things in startups.  If I didn't favor the youth so much, Evans would likely lead the tier at 14.  
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Edwards if you want, but I wouldn't touch him before the 2nd round of rookie drafts, probably late 2nd or 3rd.

ETA:  Deebo went in the late 1st in most of my non-devy leagues, 2.03 in another.  So, I suppose Edwards could go at the end of the 1st or early 2nd in some dynasty drafts, but it won't be me.  I believe this draft  has more depth than last year so he could slip further.  Decent risk / reward says late 2nd.

 
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Zyphros said:
He didn't NOT produce, just not at an elite level.  I'm chalking it up to 3 years of development because of coming from a small school.  Along with Mariota his QB who is probably just a safer version of Alex Smith when it comes to taking chances.  That says a lot to me.  Pretty sure he had one of the highest separation rates by ANY WR this year as well.  Needs a new situation, I'm still on board and I'll never quit.  This might even be a conservative ranking.  

Deebo was 4 years does he suck?  He also never really excelled in college any of his 4 years at the same school.  It's the closest thing you'll find for apples to apples and yet Edwards had 1000 more yards than Deebo did his 4 years.  I definitely downgrade senior WR's most of the time, and it is a slight red flag, but Edwards was that good on film.  Plus a 17.7 breakout age doesn't hurt.  

I knew I'd get questions on Bryan Edwards and Mike Evans ha.  Edwards is a beast, my favorite WR in this years draft besides Higgins.  He does everything well, dominant in college even though his stats don't show it.  His market share was good, but people point to the counting stats to say he sucked.  He didn't.  Just from watching him, what gave me confidence was he sinks the best out of all the WR's from this class that I went through (other than Reagor).  For a big guy, that was impressive.  He was their primary option a lot of the time, bad QB, Deebo opposite and Edwards still outproduced him overall in college across their 4 years.  

I do find it funny that the controversy is Edwards at 14, but if I put Jeudy there, nobody would question it.  Edwards is better than Jeudy in every way.  

I think Godwin took over as the #1 on that offense.  They can support 2 WR's so Evans might be a bit low here, but with the QB question looming I'm being a little conservative on Evans.  Still bullish on Godwin though.  Younger and all.  Downgraded Evans for being 26 (27 by season start), even though that's prime production usually, I heavily favor the youth side of things in startups.  If I didn't favor the youth so much, Evans would likely lead the tier at 14.  
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I wouldn't put any of these rookie WRs over Evans but that's just me. Evans should have 4 more years of prime play left. He has been a WR1 in 4 of 6 seasons, has been durable and his 16 game career average is 82/1291/9. He has done it with multiple QBs. I get that things change, the future of the QB spot is uncertain and Godwin commands targets but there is no way I am putting a player who is a total projection over a multi year Pro Bowler in his prime. 

 
Zyphros said:
He didn't NOT produce, just not at an elite level.  I'm chalking it up to 3 years of development because of coming from a small school.  Along with Mariota his QB who is probably just a safer version of Alex Smith when it comes to taking chances.  That says a lot to me.  Pretty sure he had one of the highest separation rates by ANY WR this year as well.  Needs a new situation, I'm still on board and I'll never quit.  This might even be a conservative ranking
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He produced less than he did last year when his qb was Mariota/Gabbert.   I don't think you can even use the qb excuse anymore when brown did so well with tannehill.

 
Ilov80s said:
I wouldn't put any of these rookie WRs over Evans but that's just me. Evans should have 4 more years of prime play left. He has been a WR1 in 4 of 6 seasons, has been durable and his 16 game career average is 82/1291/9. He has done it with multiple QBs. I get that things change, the future of the QB spot is uncertain and Godwin commands targets but there is no way I am putting a player who is a total projection over a multi year Pro Bowler in his prime. 
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That's probably fair and more in line with conventional ranking.  I use to like Evans a lot and lately I've soured on him.  Maybe he just isn't flashy anymore with Godwin taking over.  He's definitely a value on my list here, and probably deserves to be higher.  I'm just not sure his volume will be there anymore and I question what that will turn him into if there's no Winston at QB.  

wgoldsph said:
He produced less than he did last year when his qb was Mariota/Gabbert.   I don't think you can even use the qb excuse anymore when brown did so well with tannehill.
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I mean he kind of broke out in his 2nd year, then AJ Brown comes in.  Not that Brown actually took over, he just made splash plays from the slot, lots of players do that honestly.  Tannehill never liked throwing outside a whole lot even in Miami, which is why Landry had his insane usage there from the slot.  It transitioned to Tennessee to a new slot guy in AJ Brown.  That's not an indictment on Tannehill or Brown, just a QB not comfortable with outside throws as often.  I think he needs to be more physical and just have a dominant attitude (which doesn't seem to be in him), but I also think he needs a new situation that will utilize him better than the Titans can.  

According to RotoUnderworld Corey Davis had a 60% conversion rate of contested catches (ranked 6th for WR's), and the 5th highest cushion from DB's at 4.88 yards.  Lots of untapped potential.  I hope they don't pick up his 5th year option and/or he's traded this year to someone as a last year of his rookie deal "prove it" deal.  

 
Zyphros said:
That's probably fair and more in line with conventional ranking.  I use to like Evans a lot and lately I've soured on him.  Maybe he just isn't flashy anymore with Godwin taking over.  He's definitely a value on my list here, and probably deserves to be higher.  I'm just not sure his volume will be there anymore and I question what that will turn him into if there's no Winston at QB. 
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Through Week 14, Godwin had 112 targets and Evans had 118.  And that includes the single target Evans got before his season-ending hamstring injury.

I don't think there's any logical conclusion to be drawn about who will out-target who going forward.

If you want to separate them based on age, that's completely understandable.  There's effectively a 3-year difference there. 

FWIW, I wanted to argue your comment that Godwin supplanted Evans as the #1 this year, and I can't do it (completely).  In the games they both played the difference between them was essentially the game that Evans put up a big fat zero.  They did kind of go back and forth all season long in terms of who had more big weeks. By my count it was Godwin over Evans 5-4.  Is that edge enough to draw a conclusion of off?  Will that separation continue and be more significant in 2020?  I certainly can't say.  But I would rather have Evans in redraft this coming season only because Godwin will probably be about 1 round more expensive.

 
tangfoot said:
Through Week 14, Godwin had 112 targets and Evans had 118.  And that includes the single target Evans got before his season-ending hamstring injury.

I don't think there's any logical conclusion to be drawn about who will out-target who going forward.

If you want to separate them based on age, that's completely understandable.  There's effectively a 3-year difference there. 

FWIW, I wanted to argue your comment that Godwin supplanted Evans as the #1 this year, and I can't do it (completely).  In the games they both played the difference between them was essentially the game that Evans put up a big fat zero.  They did kind of go back and forth all season long in terms of who had more big weeks. By my count it was Godwin over Evans 5-4.  Is that edge enough to draw a conclusion of off?  Will that separation continue and be more significant in 2020?  I certainly can't say.  But I would rather have Evans in redraft this coming season only because Godwin will probably be about 1 round more expensive.
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I don't disagree, but this a dynasty ranking.  Godwin by default gets the nod rather easily over Evans for age purposes.  The trouble as you are pointing out is who actually is the #1.  I'm betting on Godwin, others might bet on Evans.  I don't think either are a bad option.  My worries purely lie with Evans' ability to be a target hog with a potentially new QB, and if he isn't can he be efficient with the touches he will eventually get?  I don't know those answers and that's what keeps me away from having Evans higher for dynasty purposes.  

 
Zyphros said:
My worries purely lie with Evans' ability to be a target hog with a potentially new QB, and if he isn't can he be efficient with the touches he will eventually get?
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Why do you not have the same question for Godwin?  Is he immune to target disruption with a new QB? 

With what we know about Arians, I would be pretty surprised if Winston isn't the QB.  He loves a guy who can air it out and I don't think there's an available QB that matches his play preference better than him.  But for the sake of argument, let's say they bring in a new QB.  That QB is going to be someone who fits the profile of previous Arians QBs, and he does love to throw downfield.  That's Evans' wheelhouse.

 
tangfoot said:
Why do you not have the same question for Godwin?  Is he immune to target disruption with a new QB? 

With what we know about Arians, I would be pretty surprised if Winston isn't the QB.  He loves a guy who can air it out and I don't think there's an available QB that matches his play preference better than him.  But for the sake of argument, let's say they bring in a new QB.  That QB is going to be someone who fits the profile of previous Arians QBs, and he does love to throw downfield.  That's Evans' wheelhouse.
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I don't have the same question about Godwin because he was efficient with his targets and he's more versatile than Evans, playing slot and outside.  

 
Zyphros said:
I don't have the same question about Godwin because he was efficient with his targets and he's more versatile than Evans, playing slot and outside.  
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I think I understand what you're saying now.  Godwin had more catches on fewer targets, but also a far lower YPC.  Evans was boom/bust and you're not willing to gamble on that continuing. Through 13 games in which they both played an were healthy, Godwin averaged 15.1 YPC and Evans was at 16.6.  Godwin averaged 5.7 catches per game to Evans 5.1

Plus the age thing.

 
tangfoot said:
I think I understand what you're saying now.  Godwin had more catches on fewer targets, but also a far lower YPC.  Evans was boom/bust and you're not willing to gamble on that continuing. Through 13 games in which they both played an were healthy, Godwin averaged 15.1 YPC and Evans was at 16.6.  Godwin averaged 5.7 catches per game to Evans 5.1

Plus the age thing.
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Evans, though, had a sick amount of end zone and red zone looks. Evans was the go-to guy down there. Godwin outperformed his expected touchdowns. I think I've posted in the Evans thread about it should anybody want to bump it. 

I love Godwin, but Evans still looked like top dog last year, and I watched most Tampa games. 

eta* It was in the Godwin thread I talked about it. Discussion begins here https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/758406-dynasty-watch-chris-godwin-wr-tampa-bay/?do=findComment&comment=22398289

 
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From what we have seen so far, Evans is more boom/bust. He can be shut down and not catch any of those deep balls/RZ looks. Godwin seems more consistent because he's going to get slot targets, more things underneath. 

 
Ilov80s said:
From what we have seen so far, Evans is more boom/bust. He can be shut down and not catch any of those deep balls/RZ looks. Godwin seems more consistent because he's going to get slot targets, more things underneath. 
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The only thing about that is that Godwin actually scored from inopportune places on the field last year. I think he had four touchdowns above what would be expected. Evans was below. Anyway, I edited my post so people can see you and I (heh) having the same discussion. 

 
rockaction said:
The only thing about that is that Godwin actually scored from inopportune places on the field last year. I think he had four touchdowns above what would be expected. Evans was below. Anyway, I edited my post so people can see you and I (heh) having the same discussion. 
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Very fair concern. It's really a 50/50 call for me in seasonal. 

 
RB's are complete.  Probably some extra controversy on this one so let's have it.  These are based on PPR.  They also correspond to my WR rankings I posted a few days ago.  Same groupings in tiers.  What I tend to do in startups is draft fully from 1 tier and move on to the next.  A Tier2 player cannot be drafted ahead of a Tier1 player.  The only exception to that is if I have a hole to fill on the bench, but until my starters are finished, it's purely tier by tier.  This can get tricky sometimes and hard to abide by but it hasn't let me down yet.  

As always I'll list a rookie pick range as well, that's just based on my ranking and what I'd likely pay based on where the rookies go in.  I understand if some wouldn't pay it or think it's too low, it's my view on their current value.  

The DND's are purely based on a startup draft.  I would consider trading for some of them if I were a compete now team, but they are likely overvalued.  DND's are only obtainable when their values are bad.  James Connor for example, I would imagine someone might cut bait on him for a mid 2nd.  Melvin Gordon on the other hand, ranked 1 spot ahead, I imagine a 2nd wouldn't do the trick.  

Tier 1 - (1) Saquon Barkley, (2) Christian McCaffrey

Tier 2 - (3) Dalvin Cook, (4) Joe Mixon, (5) Ezekiel Elliott, (6) Alvin Kamara, (7) Miles Sanders, (8) Leonard Fournette, (9) Nick Chubb, (10) D'Andre Swift, (11) Aaron Jones, (12) JK Dobbins, (13) Cam Akers, (14) Jonathan Taylor, (15) Josh Jacobs

I honestly don't know how to separate these top4 rookie RB's yet.  I'm pretty sure I prefer Swift and Akers for their great pass catching ability.  Dobbins and Taylor are good in that area too, but they could be used more as thumpers than all purpose backs.  I expect the combine to sort that out for me personally with how they look in drills like Miles Sanders did last year.  He was so smooth and great in drills, he differentiated himself among others easily.  I'm hoping these 4 RB's do something like that for me this year.  Basically rookie picks #1-#4

Tier 3 - (16) Marlon Mack, (17) Austin Ekeler, (18) Derrick Henry DND, (19) Derrius Guice, (20) Kerryon Johnson, (21) Zack Moss, (22) Kareem Hunt

All of these guys could end up being top5 guys I think.  A little lower floors as pass catching or dominant roles could be hard to come by.  Thought about moving all rookies to this spot, but I think they're clearly ahead of Mack so I separated them instead.  Rookie pick #7-#11.  

Tier 4 - (23) Ronald Jones, (24) David Johnson DND, (25) Devin Singletary DND, (26) Kenyan Drake, (27) Anthony McFarland Jr., (28) Chris Carson DND, (29) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (30) Phillip Lindsay DND, (31) Le'Veon Bell DND, (32) Melvin Gordon DND, (33) James Connor DND, (34) Michael Warren, (35) Ke'Shawn Vaughn, (36) Justice Hill, (37) Damien Williams DND, (38) James White DND

Here's my DND tier basically.  Most of them are DND's due to injury concerns, non-pass catchers, or aged too much for me to invest in a startup.  I wouldn't pay a 1st for any of these guys.  I don't think their ceilings are high enough, or their time has come and gone.  Might pay a mid 2nd for some of them as that's where I would likely be taking these rookies.  Owners probably wouldn't part with them for a 2nd though.  Rookie pick #13-#18. 

Tier 5 - (39) David Montgomery, (40) Todd Gurley DND, (41) Royce Freeman, (42) Darrell Henderson, (43) Benny Snell, (44) Chase Edmunds, (45) Trey Sermon, (46) Tevin Coleman DND, (47) Alexander Mattison, (48) Tony Pollard, (49) Damien Harris, (50) Rashaad Penny, (51) Matt Breida, (52) Tarik Cohen DND, (53) AJ Dillon, (54) Eno Benjamin, (55) Jalen Richard

Basically the backup tier.  All could have heavy roles if things break right.  There's 1 difference here in my rookie board posting I had which is Eno Benjamin.  He was ahead of Michael Warren and Ke'Shawn Vaughn due to talent, now that he weighed in at 190 at the senior bowl, I've moved him down a tier and behind other guys with a more all around skillset.  This tier has a couple of my favorite buy lows in it.  Henderson, Snell, Edmunds, Harris mainly.  Rookie range #20-#27.  

Tier 6 - (56) Jonathan Williams, (57) Raheem Mostert, (58) Patrick Laird, (59) Bryce Love, (60) Mark Ingram DND, (61) Jaylen Samuels, (62) Sony Michel, (63) Nyheim Hines, (64) Gus Edwards, (65) Duke Johnson, (66) Lamar Miller, (67) Jalin Moore, (68) Peyton Barber, (69) Malcolm Brown, (70) Jordan Scarlett

Could be some upside plays in here, I'll probably nab at least 2 of these guys in most leagues I'm in for cheap production if possible.  We're beginning to scrape the bottom of the barrel though and I wouldn't want to rely on anyone here other than a backup to my backup's backup.  

Tier 7 - (71) Myles Gaskin, (72) Ryquell Armstead, (73) Dexter Williams, (74) Ty Johnson, (75) Mike Boone, (76) Giovani Bernard, (77) Jerick McKinnon, (78) Devonta Freeman, (79) Jordan Howard, (80) LeSean McCoy, (81) Rex Burkhead

Gaskin might be the only one in this tier I'm interested in, but I'd prefer Laird right now as I think his pass catching role is more stable even if they add a RB.  Gaskin could be a sleeper but not reliable by any means.  

Tier 8 - (82) Latavius Murray DND, (83) Brian Hill, (84) Alex Barnes, (85) Devine Ozigbo, (86) Carlos Hyde DND, (87) Elijah Holyfield, (88) Jamaal Williams DND, (89) Kalen Ballage DND

Tier 9 - (90) Justin Jackson, (91) Darrel Williams, (92) Rodney Anderson, (93) Elijah McGuire, (94) Darwin Thompson

Please just don't draft these guys.  Or the ones in Tier8.  They're hardly even worth a roster spot except the young ones in the deepest of leagues.  

Kind of disappointed I only made it to 94 though.  Was hoping for another 100.  I think I got most if not all relevant RB's right now.  If I'm missing some let me know and I'll figure out a spot for them. 

 
Carson at 28? Maaaan. But you're certainly not alone. He's been top ten in my league the last two years. Dude's only 25. I'm cool with keeping him until he dies. He reminds me a lot of Ingram. Neither guy gets any respect, they just churn out points and win games. 

 
Thought provoking. If I were to make a general comment, I think rookies are way overvalued across the board. If the hit rates for a WR drafted first or second at his position only has a 40% chance of a WR1 season. And in general besides generational talents are coin flips at best. Basically all rookies are being ranked as if they have already hit. Most wont 

Someone mentioned Chris Carson as an example. Phillip Lindsay goes for back to back 1k seasons and 2x pro bowls. He hit. That’s what you hope for. You probably have other reasons to rank him 30 DND, but it confuses me a bit

i think if you are looking beyond 2-3 years ahead in dynasty you miss the forest for the trees. Things change way too quick. In a lot of situations take the points and run will maintain more team value than the scratch tickets

Flip side is the different ways we evaluate risk/reward is what makes FF fun. There is no right way. You are managing variance and expected outcomes weighted in all sorts of different ways.

thanks for the effort 

 
Detroit.
High on Kerryon, but not his comparable to, if not better performing, teammate Bo. Did have Ty listed though.

Carolina. 
Bonnafon just re-signed for the 2 spot?

Atlanta.

Ollison sticking with the team, or Hill that may not. Judge Ito?

Could get you to 100.

 
Zyphros said:
Last rookie update before dynasty rankings.  There has been some movement as I got some heights/weight in's from the senior bowl.  Plus I dove into some analytical aspects of these guys.  I've also moved all my favorites to the top of their respective tiers at their position.  They are ordered from RB - WR - QB - TE.  Bolded players are my personal favorites so this is a little more reflective of how I'd rank them.  Here are my current tiers based on my previous descriptions of talent.  

Tier 1 - D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Joe Burrow

Tier 2 - JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Bryan Edwards, Jalen Reagor, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tua Tagovailoa

Tier 3 - Elijah Mitchell, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Denzel Mims, Tyler Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Collin Johnson, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Hunter Bryant, Jared Pinkney, Harrison Bryant

Tier 4 - Anthony McFarland Jr., Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Eno Benjamin, Michael Warren, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Lynn Bowden, Michael Pittman Jr., Isaiah Hodgins, Brycen Hopkins, Cole Kmet

Tier 5 - Trey Sermon, AJ Dillon, Ty Chandler, Quartney Davis, Kalija Lipscomb, Marquez Callaway, John Hightower, Aaron Parker

That's all the ones of note, everyone else I've evaluated is a flier type that should be considered 4th round or later in rookie drafts.  This is 45 players deep with limited QB's and TE's for now.
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Do you really think Justin Herbert is a 4th round flier? Or you just don't draft rookie QBs? 

I get not wanting to draft love, Eason or Fromm (even if I disagree) but leaving Herbert off looks like an oversight. 

 
so 2nd year player devui Singletary is a dnd? based on you think buffalo drafts a replacement this year or next? curious because i really like what i saw at the end of the year

 
Apple Juice said:
Carson at 28? Maaaan. But you're certainly not alone. He's been top ten in my league the last two years. Dude's only 25. I'm cool with keeping him until he dies. He reminds me a lot of Ingram. Neither guy gets any respect, they just churn out points and win games. 
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Carson is interesting because he is productive.  I feel like Penny was the plan to replace him, that just didn't work out.  I think they try to do it again.  Plus the fumbles are a big issue, he'll get subbed in and out regularly, his value is capped in ppr, and the team seems like they want to throw more often now.  All of that puts him at DND for me, but I realize this is probably a bit low for pure production.  He is not a guy I want as an anchor or comfortable with as RB2 in a startup because he is so replaceable.  

Babooya said:
Thought provoking. If I were to make a general comment, I think rookies are way overvalued across the board. If the hit rates for a WR drafted first or second at his position only has a 40% chance of a WR1 season. And in general besides generational talents are coin flips at best. Basically all rookies are being ranked as if they have already hit. Most wont 

Someone mentioned Chris Carson as an example. Phillip Lindsay goes for back to back 1k seasons and 2x pro bowls. He hit. That’s what you hope for. You probably have other reasons to rank him 30 DND, but it confuses me a bit

i think if you are looking beyond 2-3 years ahead in dynasty you miss the forest for the trees. Things change way too quick. In a lot of situations take the points and run will maintain more team value than the scratch tickets

Flip side is the different ways we evaluate risk/reward is what makes FF fun. There is no right way. You are managing variance and expected outcomes weighted in all sorts of different ways.

thanks for the effort 
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This is more to help gauge startup value or trade value.  I won't be drafting every rookie I have ranked, but if there's a guy I don't like at rookie 2.09 or whatever I can see what a fair trade for that pick would be.  Gives me a nice glimpse into where their value is so that I don't overpay or get fleeced.  For any pick. 

As for Phillip Lindsey, he's a smaller guy who doesn't catch that well.  Limited ceiling, has his place for production but not a guy I want long term.  Those guys are pretty easily replaceable.  In a startup I want youth and versatility for most of my picks, those guys generally keep their value longer for trade purposes.  If I need a RB3-4 on my bench that maybe I can use for bye weeks or something, sure, but that's all they'll be used for on my teams.  Kind of the same as Carson situation wise, they wanted to get a bellcow in Freeman, and that just didn't work out, while Lindsey was the UDFA that showed out.  Nice story, not a great long term dynasty buy.  

Riffraff said:
Detroit.
High on Kerryon, but not his comparable to, if not better performing, teammate Bo. Did have Ty listed though.

Carolina. 
Bonnafon just re-signed for the 2 spot?

Atlanta.

Ollison sticking with the team, or Hill that may not. Judge Ito?

Could get you to 100.
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Good call on Bo Scarbrough and Bonnefon.  Pretty sure I remember reading somewhere Patricia wants to use him and Kerryon in a committee going forward.  He looked good last year.  I put Ty in because of the plus pass catching but he might not be worth this ranking now that you've pointed out Scarbrough who I forgot about.  

Bonnafon looked good at times last year as well, he'll definitely need to be added as a handcuff.  His workload would be huge if McCaffrey ever went down *knock on wood*.  

Both of them I'd put in the 50 range.  Not sure if they belong in Tier5 or Tier6 on first thought.  

Ito looks like a bust, I'm ready to write him off completely, that's why he's not on here.  Plus that team is likely to add a RB to their group.  Then again I thought that last year too, but Ollison isn't worth anything.  Hill, Freeman and a rookie seem like a decent enough backfield that others might be cut candidates.  

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
so 2nd year player devui Singletary is a dnd? based on you think buffalo drafts a replacement this year or next? curious because i really like what i saw at the end of the year
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Never liked him as a prospect, I think his ceiling is capped so is his value.  I would love to grab him in re-draft, but not long term dynasty.  He is only 22 and a plus starter so maybe I'm wrong with this one. 

 
-OZ- said:
Do you really think Justin Herbert is a 4th round flier? Or you just don't draft rookie QBs? 

I get not wanting to draft love, Eason or Fromm (even if I disagree) but leaving Herbert off looks like an oversight. 
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I don't do much evaluating of QB's and now that there's top10 hype around Herbert he should be in that list.  Definitely worse than Joe and Tua though.  I'd probably put him in Tier3 just gut reaction.  That rookie list is talent based from me watching them in game-cut ups.  I don't do that for QB's or TE's and use more generic ones that I insert into my own thoughts on WR's and RB's.  

I usually avoid QB's in rookie drafts unless it's 2QB or superflex.  They usually do 1 of 3 things.  1.  Blow up like Baker did and value skyrockets making them unobtainable after rookie year, then year 2 either fall down to earth (Baker, who I think is a buy) or keep skyrocket and prove right (Mahomes).  2.  Sit for a year and value is still uncertain (Haskins).  3.  Prove to be start able but ceiling is hard to imagine (Daniel Jones).  

 
Zyphros said:
This is more to help gauge startup value or trade value.  I won't be drafting every rookie I have ranked, but if there's a guy I don't like at rookie 2.09 or whatever I can see what a fair trade for that pick would be.  Gives me a nice glimpse into where their value is so that I don't overpay or get fleeced.  For any pick. 

As for Phillip Lindsey, he's a smaller guy who doesn't catch that well.  Limited ceiling, has his place for production but not a guy I want long term.  Those guys are pretty easily replaceable.  In a startup I want youth and versatility for most of my picks, those guys generally keep their value longer for trade purposes.  If I need a RB3-4 on my bench that maybe I can use for bye weeks or something, sure, but that's all they'll be used for on my teams.  Kind of the same as Carson situation wise, they wanted to get a bellcow in Freeman, and that just didn't work out, while Lindsey was the UDFA that showed out.  Nice story, not a great long term dynasty buy.  
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Year 0 or year 5 value is value. I look at Lindsay as the feature back in a run heavy scheme with a coach who wants to (and should) get him more passes in space. It will be year 3 of his rookie deal. Following year he will be in a contract year with at least 2x pro bowls possibly 3  in a hopefully ascending offensive situation. Year after that he will be trying to prove he earned his contract. That’s a pretty good 3 year window to invest in. Peak sell probably after his contract year

 
Babooya said:
Year 0 or year 5 value is value. I look at Lindsay as the feature back in a run heavy scheme with a coach who wants to (and should) get him more passes in space. It will be year 3 of his rookie deal. Following year he will be in a contract year with at least 2x pro bowls possibly 3  in a hopefully ascending offensive situation. Year after that he will be trying to prove he earned his contract. That’s a pretty good 3 year window to invest in. Peak sell probably after his contract year
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By snap count, Lindsay was 50.3% and Freeman was 50.1%.  He's not ascending anything.  He's in a timeshare and he isn't very good at being in that.  He's a little above replacement in terms of rushing, that's about all he has going for him.  How do you know they want to get him more passes?  

Lindsay had 48 targets, 35 receptions for 196 (5.6 avg and 12.3 yards per game).  He also had 6 drops

Freeman had 50 targets, 43 receptions for 256 yards (6.0 avg and 16 yards per game).  He also had 2 drops

By these accounts Freeman is actually the better pass catcher, even though he's not good at it.  Just because Lindsay is smaller doesn't make him a better COP back. 

 
Zyphros said:
By snap count, Lindsay was 50.3% and Freeman was 50.1%.  He's not ascending anything.  He's in a timeshare and he isn't very good at being in that.  He's a little above replacement in terms of rushing, that's about all he has going for him.  How do you know they want to get him more passes?  

Lindsay had 48 targets, 35 receptions for 196 (5.6 avg and 12.3 yards per game).  He also had 6 drops

Freeman had 50 targets, 43 receptions for 256 yards (6.0 avg and 16 yards per game).  He also had 2 drops

By these accounts Freeman is actually the better pass catcher, even though he's not good at it.  Just because Lindsay is smaller doesn't make him a better COP back. 
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coach speak blurb that came out recently

 
Dr. Dan said:
I wasnt aware that this was common knowledge. First time I've ever heard of this concept. The previous points in this post were good ones, but the bolded is seriously reaching. 

IMO his sell high may be right now or after this upcoming season
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Sure, just highlighting the fact his 2-3 window looks good. the coach/GM could get fired, the line could continue to suck and he ends up a jag RBBC. Definitely in the universe of potential results 

 
Thank you for your rankings. I apologize if you already touched on this but can you give the reasoning for ranking rookies so high (in particular the receiver side where historically those guys take longer to develop) over proven production (Evans, Adams, Diggs...etc) and even young production that has already shown great promise on the NFL field (AJ Brown, DK, Chark...etc)?

It just seems to be placing a large emphasis on new and shiny when historically the hit ratio on rookies has not been as high as your rankings indicate. Last year was a phenomenal year for rookie receivers playing well (well above average) and a lot of those guys are taking a backseat to this class.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Thank you for your rankings. I apologize if you already touched on this but can you give the reasoning for ranking rookies so high (in particular the receiver side where historically those guys take longer to develop) over proven production (Evans, Adams, Diggs...etc) and even young production that has already shown great promise on the NFL field (AJ Brown, DK, Chark...etc)?

It just seems to be placing a large emphasis on new and shiny when historically the hit ratio on rookies has not been as high as your rankings indicate. Last year was a phenomenal year for rookie receivers playing well (well above average) and a lot of those guys are taking a backseat to this class.
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These are based on startup value and trade value in terms of the draft slot which I have them ranked at.  For example Tee Higgins is my WR1, but value wise he's my 1.05 right now.  So the players around his ranking are what I'd expect to receive if Higgins is on the board, and I wanted to trade the pick.  Goes for both WR's and RB's.  

I rank them high for 1 main reason.  Everyone wants a rookie WR, so naturally they are inflated a bit.  Plus this years group I have 2 rated higher than anyone from last year, and another 4 rated similarly to the top of last year.  

In a startup I want my window to be open as long as possible on the initial draft.  Normally I have the philosophy of trading down year 1 and collecting year 2 picks and drafting strictly youth.  Even if they don't do much year 1, they usually can be flipped year 2 for something of decent value.  That's why there's a heavy emphasis on younger players.  I won't draft all the rookies ranked, it isn't possible, but it's very easy for me to see value on the board using this.  Sometimes I trade out of a spot for a future 2nd, when it would be a rookie I have ranked in the 3rd.  Stuff like that.  This philosophy is what creates the rankings though, which if you're the kind of player that trades IN and goes for championship in year 1 I would imagine rankings look a bit different.  It's called Dynasty Leagues for a reason and I think the point is longevity of dominance.  I see that by going heavy on youth. 

The other thing I try not to draft is single role players with limited upside.  Phillip Lindsay is a good example, Jordan Howard, Derrick Henry, to name a few.  They have limited upside in PPR leagues, they might have good seasons, but they'll always be lower in trade value than production value.  I don't want them in a startup.  I don't mind trading for them but it must be at my value because they are likely to not last long and have some part of their role replaced.  

On the flip side, I'd prefer to have single role players that can do more if given opportunity.  Duke Johnson, Rashaad Penny, Justice Hill as examples.  Duke Johnson's time has kind of come and gone, Penny almost gone, and Hill being a good example of right now, but you get my point.  Sometimes those don't work out, but they're usually cheaper than the Lindsay/Howard/Henry of the world and the upside is usually bigger as well.  

 
Zyphros said:
Last rookie update before dynasty rankings.  There has been some movement as I got some heights/weight in's from the senior bowl.  Plus I dove into some analytical aspects of these guys.  I've also moved all my favorites to the top of their respective tiers at their position.  They are ordered from RB - WR - QB - TE.  Bolded players are my personal favorites so this is a little more reflective of how I'd rank them.  Here are my current tiers based on my previous descriptions of talent.  

Tier 1 - D'Andre Swift, Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Joe Burrow

Tier 2 - JK Dobbins, Cam Akers, Jonathan Taylor, Bryan Edwards, Jalen Reagor, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Tua Tagovailoa

Tier 3 - Elijah Mitchell, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Denzel Mims, Tyler Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Collin Johnson, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, Hunter Bryant, Jared Pinkney, Harrison Bryant

Tier 4 - Anthony McFarland Jr., Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Eno Benjamin, Michael Warren, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, Lynn Bowden, Michael Pittman Jr., Isaiah Hodgins, Brycen Hopkins, Cole Kmet

Tier 5 - Trey Sermon, AJ Dillon, Ty Chandler, Quartney Davis, Kalija Lipscomb, Marquez Callaway, John Hightower, Aaron Parker

That's all the ones of note, everyone else I've evaluated is a flier type that should be considered 4th round or later in rookie drafts.  This is 45 players deep with limited QB's and TE's for now.

As for an actual ranking, I use some rules to elevate RB's and devalue QB's and TE's.  A RB from Tier3 is comparable to a WR from Tier2.  A TE from Tier2 would be comparable to a WR from Tier3.  A QB from Tier1 would be comparable to a WR from Tier2 (unless it's for 2 QB leagues which the tier remains).  The tiers for my rankings are slightly different with that viewpoint so it get's broken down into Tier A, B, C, D, E, F which is pretty self explanatory (just call it a grade).  Helps me find tier gaps easily in the rookie draft.  With that being said here would be a top37 (weird number I know, but the rest is the last tier which doesn't need listing) ranking of these guys with those rules in place:

Tier A Draft Pick (1) D'Andre Swift, (2) JK Dobbins, (3) Cam Akers, (4) Jonathan Taylor, (5) Tee Higgins, (6) Laviska Shenault

Tier B Draft Pick (7) Bryan Edwards, (8) Jalen Reagor, (9) Elijah Mitchell, (10) Joe Burrow, (11) CeeDee Lamb, (12) Jerry Jeudy, (13) Zack Moss

Tier C Draft Pick (13) Gabriel Davis, (14) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (15) Denzel Mims, (16) Tyler Johnson, (17) Tua Tagovailoa, (18) Anthony McFarland Jr., (19) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (20) Quintez Cephus, (21) Collin Johnson, (22) Henry Ruggs, (23) Justin Jefferson, (24) Eno Benjamin, (25) Michael Warren, (26) Ke'Shawn Vaughn

Tier D Draft Pick (27) Trey Sermon, (28) AJ Dillon, (29) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (30) Brandin Aiyuk, (31) Lynn Bowden, (32) Ty Chandler, (33) Hunter Bryant, (34) Michael Pittman, (35) Jared Pinkney, (36) Harrison Bryant, (37) Isaiah Hodgins

This is mostly based on their talent I perceive them at with some analytics sprinkled in to how I view a player.  This would be the board that I use to draft from, but it's still incomplete.  I need sizes/weights from the combine, and draft capital and landing spot from the NFL Draft, which allows players to move up/down a tier based on what they show and where they end up situation wise.  So for example if Laviska Shenault weights in at 232 or something, doesn't impress in drills and lands in a terrible spot he could move down 2 tiers into Tier Group C.  That's how I complete my rookie board's.  And I use my rookie board to insert these players into my full dynasty rankings.  This is about 1/3 of the way done.  
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Talent tiers from the first 1/2 of my post got sorted into my draft tiers (with my rules in place) which is the 2nd half of that post.  

The last step pre-combine was to sort them based on a guess of draft capital, athleticism, and to move personal favorites ahead of others to create a final list that I would draft with.  Here is that list:

(1) DeAndre Swift, (2) Jonathan Taylor, (3) Cam Akers, (4) JK Dobbins, (5) Tee Higgins, (6) Bryan Edwards, (7) Jalen Reagor, (8) Laviska Shenault, (9) CeeDee Lamb, (10) Joe Burrow, (11) Zack Moss, (12) Jerry Jeudy, (13) Gabriel Davis, (14) Tua Tagovailoa, (15) Henry Ruggs, (16) Tyler Johnson, (17) Anthony McFarland Jr., (18) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (19) Denzel Mims, (20) Justin Jefferson, (21) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (22) Justin Herbert, (23) Antonio Gibson, (24) Ke'Shawn Vaughn, (25) Michael Warren, (26) Quintez Cephus, (27) Adam Trautman, (28) Collin Johnson, (29) Jet (Darius) Anderson, (30) AJ Dillon, (31) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (32) Lamical Perine, (33) Harrison Bryant, (34) Tery Sermon, (35) Brandin Aiyuk, (36) Lynn Bowden Jr., (37) Brian Herrien, (38) Eno Benjamin, (39) Hunter Bryant, (40) Michael Pittman, (41) Benny LeMay, (42) Ty Chandler, (43) Jared Pinkney, (44) JaMycal Hasty, (45) Isaiah Hodgins

The way I did it was compare 1 to 1 in the process down the list to see who I would prefer.  I bumped Bryan Edwards up to the bottom of a tier because he's a personal favorite.  Ruggs gets a bit of a boost due to projected draft capital, that sort of thing.  Still not completely sold on ANY TE, and a little unsure on where to rank them.  

Last year there were a few favorites (AJ Brown, Deebo, Preston Williams, Miles Sanders, Kelvin Harmon, Kahale Warring, Anthony Ratliff-Williams, Jalin Moore) this year there is about the same number.  From last year the guys I had to own were just narrowed down to 1, Preston Williams.  This year I have to own Bryan Edwards and Gabriel Davis.  Love those 2 a lot.  Plenty of other favorites like Higgins, Reagor, McFarland, Mims, AGG, but I've narrowed it down to 2 that I have to have.  

Once you get to 25 I think the order could really be anything, but I mostly just went off my talent + rules list which is the 2nd half of my quoted post.  

 
Dr. Dan said:
@Zyphros I thought Swift was being downgraded for you. Can you explain what made you put him back at the top?

I have to say, the order of your top 12 is very very similar to mine. Maybe 1 or 2 differences... makes me feel better about taking the position I am on these guys
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Not downgraded (yet) just cautionary.  I still like him a lot overall, but I don't quite see the ceiling anymore.  Part of that is due to the Kenyan Drake comp's that are out there now, I see that a lot.  It makes total sense, questions about how his workload being half and half with Holyfield and things like that is what makes me cautious. 

Ceiling is also what made me move Taylor up.  I have a feeling my top3 will be Akers, Taylor, Swift when the combine is done if things go the way I expect.  

I'd wager we both just suck at this scouting thing and we're both going down in a sinking ship though instead of making each other feel better about who we like.  

 
Hey Zyphros, what do you think of Taylor as a receiver?

That's where I have my doubts about him, based on his numbers. I wish there were video cutups based on type of play instead of by game so that I could just spend 20 minutes watching all 39 of his targets.

 
ZWK said:
Hey Zyphros, what do you think of Taylor as a receiver?

That's where I have my doubts about him, based on his numbers. I wish there were video cutups based on type of play instead of by game so that I could just spend 20 minutes watching all 39 of his targets.
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Pretty average to me.  I don't see a natural catcher, but he's not inadequate.  His combine will clear that up a little bit.  I think he's just average at catching, which likely makes him replaceable on those downs in the NFL.  Just to compare to other RB's I think Swift is above average at catching and so is Dobbins.  It might just come down to landing spot and projected usage in their roles.  Akers on the other hand I think is special in that area.  

That would be a great video to have. 

VS USF game 2:57 has a wheel route and 4:38 has a route and a catch.  

VS Michigan State the first play has a little flat route too.

Really don't want to dive into finding all the examples though.  Every game in his college career, he had 3 or less catches.  That doesn't exactly inspire confidence.  Usually you see an outlier season or a few games with an oddity, not for Taylor.  I believe he CAN catch, I also believe his combine will show he's not great at it.  

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Former Gamecocks star Bryan Edwards breaks foot, will miss NFL combine https://t.co/sctHn8kN3H
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That takes my guy out of 1st round contention very likely in rookie drafts, I however will still be taking him top10 very likely.

I was hitching my wagon to 3 WR's basically.  Higgins, Shenault and Edwards.  The Edwards train has sailed away and sunk (in terms of value right now), now I need Higgins and Shenault to not be horrible at the combine to make something happen.  Shenault by most reports says he's going to be a beast, Higgins is a question mark still.  But I'm looking forward to seeing how they do.  Unfortunately I will be unable to watch the combine (I think) so I'll have to stick to re-runs on NFL network or something.  

 
rockaction said:
I, like Zyphros, am all over him. College Dominator 48.4, BA 17.8, highlights sick.

I'll be drafting hopefully. 
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There are a couple funny things about that 48.4 dominator rating.

First of all, it looks like it's based on pro-rating his stats. But pro-rating is pretty misleading in this case, because the 2 games that Edwards missed were against 2 of South Carolina's toughest opponents (Clemson & Texas A&M) who shut them down and held them to a combined 9 points (3 FGs). If you pro-rate Edwards's stats then you get a 48.4% dominator rating, but if you exclude the team stats for the 2 games that he missed and just look at Edwards's market share in the 10 games he played then he just gets a 42.4% dominator rating.

Second, he mainly does that well because the South Carolina passing offense scored so few touchdowns. Over those 10 games, Edwards had 34.8% of their receiving yards (816/2347) and 50% of their receiving TDs (6/12). 816 yards and 6 TD in 10 games is middle-of-the-pack for a WR prospect, 34.8% of receiving yards is pretty good but not amazing. The one number that stands out as really good is 50% of the receiving TDs, which is an unusually high market share, but scoring 6 of your team's 12 receiving TDs over 10 games just doesn't seem all that reflective of great scoring ability. South Carolina's offense really struggled in the red zone - they were among the bottom 10 FBS teams in red zone TDs, and only had 4 red zone passing TDs. Edwards broke a few long touchdowns (with 3 TD receptions of 40+ yards), which is good but not all that unusual, but since South Carolina rarely threw for short touchdowns those ended up being a large fraction of the team's total passing touchdowns.

So I think that 34.8% is a closer reflection of Edwards's share of the South Carolina passing offense.

 
Some combine data is in, I haven't had a chance to watch a whole lot of it yet but instant reaction's are obvious.  

Winners - Justin Jefferson ran faster than I thought he would.  Denzel Mims absolutely put on a show.  Lamb clearly goes into my #1 spot.  He looks much smoother in drills than I anticipated, I'm sold. 

Losers - Jeudy on the other hand, he looked awkward.  Said it since day 1, not sure if it's the knee thing or just a weird style, I don't like the way he moves.  Someone else can be high on him.  Basically every WR I really liked pre-workout was a loser.  Higgins, Shenault, Edwards, and AGG.  As much as I liked Higgins, Shenault, and Edwards they all had less than stellar combines (mostly due to not participating).  I can't ignore it.  They have to drop in my rankings.  Edwards due to injury, Higgins didn't run, Shenault got injured (again).  AGG had an ok day but then stunk the 40, he's solidified as a rookie round 3 pick at best (unless draft capital is top2 rounds, where he sneaks into round 2).  

The other guys I was a big fan of was Gabriel Davis and Denzel Mims.  Davis was kind of just average across the board, Mims was an absolute beast.  Thankfully I had 2 favorites that did well, Reagor and Mims.  The rest not so much.

My guess is it's going to move CEH, Moss, McFarland up in ranking and the disappointing WR's down to the 10-15 range (could be even further if more RB's show out).  I said somewhere that Edwards and Higgins are still top10 for me, maybe not anymore.  That'll depend on where I put the QB's but I don't think I could justify it.  I know as of now, I'm very uncomfortable with anything behind 1.06 since we don't know draft capital yet.  

I'll do a gut reaction for RB's tomorrow night when I get a chance to review and then a projected top20 rookie's after that.  

 
issue with dropping higgins @Zyphros is that you're likely gonna have to catapult him back up after his pro day.

i mean, you probably still gotta drop him cuz others will have risen... but he'll be back up there.

 
Soulfly3 said:
issue with dropping higgins @Zyphros is that you're likely gonna have to catapult him back up after his pro day.

i mean, you probably still gotta drop him cuz others will have risen... but he'll be back up there.
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I hope so, but I’m putting in info as we go along.  Right now it doesn’t look good.  

 
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