Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (1 Viewer)

As promised, here are the RB's I have ranked for my top12 for rookies.  A couple reminders, I've only watched these 12 but I need to get to more.  Tiers are always independent lists.  Tier1 of this list is not comparable to tier1 of the QB/WR/TE lists.  This is also based purely on talent from my eyes and their production, less about where I would rank them in a rookie list (that will come later)

RB's

Tier 1 - (1) Josh Jacobs

Tier 2 - (2) David Montgomery, (3) Elijah Holyfield, (4) Damien Harris

Tier 3 - (5) Devin Singletary, (6) Darrell Henderson, (7) Bryce Love

Tier 4 - (8) Benny Snell Jr., (9) Rodney Anderson, (10) Justice Hill, (11) LJ Scott, (12) Miles Gaskin

Notes

Josh Jacobs is the only guy I see worthy of being considered early.  I really don't like any of these other RB's very much.  But from a traits standpoint, Jacobs has everything.  That's also where the concerns come in.  He didn't get a lot of playing time or production from being a standout with his traits.  Makes me wonder if he's boosted just because of that since none of these other RB's have all the traits.  David Montgomery has some good traits and very good production.  Analytics people love him for breaking tons of tackles on a bad offense.  Biggest concern I've heard is his long speed, which makes me question his ceiling, but he's pretty safe for a role in the NFL I think.  I like Elijah Holyfield's suddeness and acceleration.  That gives me confidence right away and what makes me a little higher on him.  Again he lacks some top end speed and I do doubt his listed height/weight at 5'11" 215.  If he can put those to bed at the combine, he might be the only RB I target other than Jacobs.  Damien Harris just doesn't pop off the screen to me.  He has good speed and some quickness but he's more downhill, 1 cut type of runner for zone scheme's.  I think his landing spot will either make/break his outlook, not necessarily his talent.  He's very much Alfred Morris or Chris Carson to me.  Devin Singletary is the most patient runner in this class, but he had a bad o-line so I am a little encouraged that he could be better than what I've seen.  His receptions dropped every year, so he isn't that great at pass catching but he is elusive and shifty.  Some people love Darrell Henderson I just don't see anything more than a COP back.  He looks small but he doesn't have amazing speed, he's fast, but not THAT fast.  Trait wise he has almost everything I'm looking for other than the size.  I'm guessing he weighs in less than 200 at 5'9".  Not my style of RB usually.  Bryce Love's balance, speed, and agility are all impressive.  He doesn't seem to have edge speed or very explosive so that's a big hit in my view.  More of a straight line runner which is why I think he'll do well in the 40, but he doesn't play that fast when he's running through tacklers or around the edge.  These next 2 have loads of questions to me but they have the best chance of being workhorse type backs as well.  Benny Snell Jr. is a grinding type of RB with good vision and toughness.  That's pretty much it though.  Not very fast, not very shifty, but his production might be the best out of everyone in this class.  He is a decent pass catcher.  He's a guy I can see myself moving up during this process.  Rodney Anderson runs too high, he's stiff and he's not agile.  Good speed and good size as well as being a pass catcher.  His shortcomings are probably due to his injuries so draft capital is of very little importance with him.  Could be a steal if he he's healthy and in the right situation.  Justice Hill is another guy that just looks small.  Seems be a good pass catcher, but only had 1 year of good production from it.  Shifty and quick but dances too much.  LJ Scott is a "see it and go" type of RB.  Doesn't have great vision but when he see's it, he can explode through.  Seems to lack some power though so can be taken down a little too early in runs.  Myles Gaskin seems to run with good patient and follows blocks really well, but I saw slow feet with little explosiveness although good vision.  Seems to have all his good runs to the outside and doesn't have the resume of a pass catcher.  

Names I still need to watch:  Trayveon Williams, Miles Sanders, Damarae Crockett, Mike Weber, Wes Hills, Devon Ozigbo and whoever else people suggest for me.  

I decided not to include the QB's or TE's in this rookie top40 since I don't spend much time watching those guys and I use other sources to help me gauge those players.  I'm pretty sure I'd have Hockensen as a top8 pick, but other than that I just have no clue where I'd put anyone else.  I trust my process a lot at this point in doing this fun little hobby of ours and I came up with a solid list I think.  Tweaks to be made for sure but overall this is where I'm starting everything for a pre-combine ranking.

Rookie Top40 List here we go:

#1 - Josh Jacobs RB

#2 - AJ Brown WR

#3 - N'keal Harry WR

#4 - Elijah Holyfield RB 

#5 - Kelvin Harmon WR

#6 - David Montgomery RB

#7 - DK Metcalf WR

#8 - Miles Sanders RB

#9 - Damien Harris RB

#10 - Collin Johnson WR

#12 - Hakeem Butler WR

#13 - Deebo Samuel WR

#14 - Preston Williams WR

#15 - Devin Singletary RB

#16 - Darrell Henderson RB

#17 - Marquise Brown WR

#18 - Benny Snell Jr. RB

#19 - Mike Weber RB

#20 - JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR

#21 - Trayveon Williams RB

#22 - Andy Isabella WR

#23 - Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR

#24 - Devin Ozigbo RB

#25 - Parris Campbell WR

#26 - Rodney Anderson RB

#27 - Bryce Love RB

#28 - Justice Hill RB

#29 - LJ Scott RB

#30 - Keelan Doss WR

#31 - David Sills WR

#32 - Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR

#33 - Myles Gaskin RB

#34 - Cody Thompson WR

#35 - Alexander Mattison RB

#36 - Olamiday Zaccheaus WR

#37 - Damarea Crockett RB

#38 - Mecole Hardman WR

#39 - John Ursua WR

#40 - Riley Ridley WR

I'm fairly confident in the top25 then after that it was much harder to come up with a ranking list since I'm not sold on any of those players really.  I didn't go by my previous lists of talent as much because I have favorites.  I put all these guys in my talent tiers first (some adjustments since the last posting) and then when I created a top40 list, I usually rank my favorite guys within a tier, above the other guys in that same tier.  Partly why I have Holyfield ahead of Montgomery for example or Miles Sanders over Harris.  Collin Johnson over Butler as another example. 

A quick list of my favorites though:  AJ Brown, Elijah Holyfield, Kelvin Harmon, Miles Sanders, Collin Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Preston Williams, Anthony Ratliff-Williams.  I do this favorites list every year on my own rankings and this year I have 9. 

Going back to 2014 I had 12, 2015 I had 7, 2016 I had 3, 2017 I had 9, and 2018 I had 3.  Just as a fun way of tracking.  But overall I think this class rivals the really good years of 2014 and 2017.  

A couple surprises on this list I'm sure but this is what I have so far.  

Zyphros said:

I decided not to include the QB's or TE's in this rookie top40 since I don't spend much time watching those guys and I use other sources to help me gauge those players.  I'm pretty sure I'd have Hockensen as a top8 pick, but other than that I just have no clue where I'd put anyone else.  I trust my process a lot at this point in doing this fun little hobby of ours and I came up with a solid list I think.  Tweaks to be made for sure but overall this is where I'm starting everything for a pre-combine ranking.

Rookie Top40 List here we go:

#1 - Josh Jacobs RB

#2 - AJ Brown WR

#3 - N'keal Harry WR

#4 - Elijah Holyfield RB 

#5 - Kelvin Harmon WR

#6 - David Montgomery RB

#7 - DK Metcalf WR

#8 - Miles Sanders RB

#9 - Damien Harris RB

#10 - Collin Johnson WR

#12 - Hakeem Butler WR

#13 - Deebo Samuel WR

#14 - Preston Williams WR

#15 - Devin Singletary RB

#16 - Darrell Henderson RB

#17 - Marquise Brown WR

#18 - Benny Snell Jr. RB

#19 - Mike Weber RB

#20 - JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR

#21 - Trayveon Williams RB

#22 - Andy Isabella WR

#23 - Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR

#24 - Devin Ozigbo RB

#25 - Parris Campbell WR

#26 - Rodney Anderson RB

#27 - Bryce Love RB

#28 - Justice Hill RB

#29 - LJ Scott RB

#30 - Keelan Doss WR

#31 - David Sills WR

#32 - Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR

#33 - Myles Gaskin RB

#34 - Cody Thompson WR

#35 - Alexander Mattison RB

#36 - Olamiday Zaccheaus WR

#37 - Damarea Crockett RB

#38 - Mecole Hardman WR

#39 - John Ursua WR

#40 - Riley Ridley WR

I'm fairly confident in the top25 then after that it was much harder to come up with a ranking list since I'm not sold on any of those players really.  I didn't go by my previous lists of talent as much because I have favorites.  I put all these guys in my talent tiers first (some adjustments since the last posting) and then when I created a top40 list, I usually rank my favorite guys within a tier, above the other guys in that same tier.  Partly why I have Holyfield ahead of Montgomery for example or Miles Sanders over Harris.  Collin Johnson over Butler as another example. 

A quick list of my favorites though:  AJ Brown, Elijah Holyfield, Kelvin Harmon, Miles Sanders, Collin Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Preston Williams, Anthony Ratliff-Williams.  I do this favorites list every year on my own rankings and this year I have 9. 

Going back to 2014 I had 12, 2015 I had 7, 2016 I had 3, 2017 I had 9, and 2018 I had 3.  Just as a fun way of tracking.  But overall I think this class rivals the really good years of 2014 and 2017.  

A couple surprises on this list I'm sure but this is what I have so far.  

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Who is the mystery player hidden at number 11?

slicedbred21 said:

Who is the mystery player hidden at number 11?

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And Collin Johnson decided to go back for his senior season correct?

slicedbred21 said:

Who is the mystery player hidden at number 11?

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Just a typo.  No hidden player here.   But just move everyone up once and add Wes Hills at the end.  

Denver724 said:

And Collin Johnson decided to go back for his senior season correct?

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I did not realize that.  That's a big bummer for me.  

Parris Campbell seems to be a guy gaining steam- I will have to check him out. What do you know about him?

Ilov80s said:

Parris Campbell seems to be a guy gaining steam- I will have to check him out. What do you know about him?

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I know he reminds me of Percy Harvin.  He's very similar to Deebo Samuel to me, a Randall Cobb/Percy Harvin type of guy.  I don't think he's as safe as Deebo is but he has a lot of good things going for him.  More of a slot guy.  

Surprised WR Emanuel Hall (Missouri) didn't crack your top 40. He will be a fast riser after the combine.

Zyphros said:

I know he reminds me of Percy Harvin.  He's very similar to Deebo Samuel to me, a Randall Cobb/Percy Harvin type of guy.  I don't think he's as safe as Deebo is but he has a lot of good things going for him.  More of a slot guy.  

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Ok I’ve heard speculation he could run in the 4.3s which would get him on everyone’s radar real quick.

Ilov80s said:

Ok I’ve heard speculation he could run in the 4.3s which would get him on everyone’s radar real quick.

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I wouldn't put it past him at all.  

On a larger note, these Alabama, Ohio St., Clemson (along with other schools) prospects seem to do 1 of 2 things.  1.  Get drafted higher than they should because of their school.  2.  Go rather unnoticed because they're overshadowed by other great prospects at the same school.  At least that's how I see it.  I thnk Campbell is option 2 obviously but that could mean a steal for NFL teams.  Same goes for a guy like Josh Jacobs.  He'll be overdrafted purely because of Alabama and although I think he's worthy of being the 1.01 in rookie picks, I don't think he's worthy of these top half of the 1st round projections I'm seeing in mocks.  Too much risk associated with him, where a guy like Campbell can safely be where he should be drafted, which I think will be in the 2nd-3rd, although I have heard someone mention him as a possible 1st round selection.  Especially if he doees run 4.3's and exceeds at the combine.  

Zyphros said:

I wouldn't put it past him at all.  

On a larger note, these Alabama, Ohio St., Clemson (along with other schools) prospects seem to do 1 of 2 things.  1.  Get drafted higher than they should because of their school.  2.  Go rather unnoticed because they're overshadowed by other great prospects at the same school.  At least that's how I see it.  I thnk Campbell is option 2 obviously but that could mean a steal for NFL teams.  Same goes for a guy like Josh Jacobs.  He'll be overdrafted purely because of Alabama and although I think he's worthy of being the 1.01 in rookie picks, I don't think he's worthy of these top half of the 1st round projections I'm seeing in mocks.  Too much risk associated with him, where a guy like Campbell can safely be where he should be drafted, which I think will be in the 2nd-3rd, although I have heard someone mention him as a possible 1st round selection.  Especially if he doees run 4.3's and exceeds at the combine.  

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Good points. The combine is always a huge difference maker. I think of DJ Chark last year who probably jumped up 60-80 spots based just on his 40 time.

Zyphros said:

#1 - Josh Jacobs RB

#2 - AJ Brown WR

#3 - N'keal Harry WR

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I'm surprised that you're this high on Harry given that you think he has trouble separating from DBs (as you've mentioned in the Harry thread and the ZWK prospect thread). I think that getting open is the most important part of a WR's job.

ZWK said:

I'm surprised that you're this high on Harry given that you think he has trouble separating from DBs (as you've mentioned in the Harry thread and the ZWK prospect thread). I think that getting open is the most important part of a WR's job.

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I think he has sneaky quickness but not he's not necessarily explosive and he'll test better than people realize but this ranking is not without risk.  I like his open field ability a lot which is another reason I still have him high.  His landing spot will be a big piece of how I view him, same with anyone in this class that has more risk than others (Josh Jacobs and DK Metcalf as the top of those).  

He reminds me a lot of Kevin White when I was almost blindly having faith in him it seemed and just explained things away.  Then I watched more and he reminded me of Devante Parker, in that his entire college career was jump balls.  On one hand I think his traits are better than both rather easily since he can win in multiple spots on the field, on the other hand I'm playing cautious in my own head about if I really would take him this high due to being burned with a similar prospect in the past.  The ultimate question is still there, have I learned from my mistakes, and is my process turning into something I can trust more than in the past.  I think both are true that I have learned and that my process has worked for most of my recent picks but I'd be lying if I said Harry didn't concern me a bit.   

Also to add to the ranking a bit, I don't think at this moment with these big puzzle pieces missing (NFL combine or landing spot), Holyfield, Harmon, or Montgomery are worthy of being pick 1.03 so Harry just sort of assumed that role in my own head.  What usually happens for me doing rookie rankings is WR's are higher than RB's then I slowly move RB's up during the process.  When they hit they're usually more valuable than a WR who hits.  

Experiment time:  2018 vs 2019 overall ranking based on my perception of their talent BEFORE the combine.  

My list from last year based on talent and my list from this year's talent combined into one.  2018 vs 2019 overall ranking,

Arbitrary cutoff at top8 just to include most if not all notable names from each class

2018 top8 WR's:  Calvin Ridley, Michael Gallup, Christian Kirk, Equanimeous St. Brown, James Washington, Jordan Lasley, Daeshawn Hamilton, Courtland Sutton

*Yes I didn't have DJ Moore or Anthony Miller in my top8 pre-combine, those are the only 2 notable ones missing from the WR group

2018 top8 RB's:  Saquon Barkely, Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, John Kelly, Rashad Penny, Kalen Ballage

*Kerryon Johnson and Nyheim Hines being the notable ones missing here but again not in the top8 and I didn't want a giant list

2019 top8 WR's:  Preston Williams, AJ Brown, N'Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel, JJ Arcega-Whiteside

2019 top8 RB's:  Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Elijah Holyfield, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, Benny Snell Jr. 

This wouldn't be a ranking of a draft order, just based on the talent that I perceived the players at the time before we knew landing spots and combine data.  It's hard to just look at the list and try to realize how I viewed them before since my tiers are always independent lists (maybe I should change that), but the exercise is fun to try and realize how I would view them relative to each other.  

Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Preston Williams, AJ Brown, N'keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, David Montgomery, Elijah Holyfield, Calvin Ridley, Michael Gallup, Ronald Jones, Miles Sanders, Sony Michel, Hakeem Butler, John Kelly, Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, Deebo Samuel, Christian Kirk, Equanimeous St. Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, James Washington, Darrell Henderson, Benny Snell Jr., Rashad Penny, Kalen Ballage, Jordan Lasley, Daeshawn Hamilton, Courtland Sutton.  

Steelers4Life said:

Tier 4 - (18) Rashaad Penny, (19) Dalvin Cook, (20) Phillip Lindsey, (21) Marlon Mack, (22) Tevin Coleman, (23) Jerrick McKinnon

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No idea how Penny is ahead of these guys, he really didn't show much this year other than the one game.  Coleman being a tier ahead of Freeman is odd without knowing what situation he'll land in and his mediocre play this year.  Granted Freeman got hurt but he's still the more talented back of the two and I'd rather have him over Penny or McKinnon.

Zyphros said:

Tier 5 - (27) Will Fuller, (28) Christian Kirk, (29) Courtland Sutton, (30) Calvin Ridley, (31) Jarvis Landry, (32) Michael Gallup, (33) Anthony Miller (34) Emmanuel Sanders

Tier 6 - (35) Marvin Jones, (36) Tre'Quan Smith, (37) Josh Reynolds, (38) Curtis Samuel, (39) Marquise Goodwin, (40)Tyler Lockett, (41) Antonio Callaway, (42) Devante Parker

Tier 7 - (43) Mike Williams, (44) Julien Edelman, (45) Sterling Shepard, (46) Chris Conley, (47) Dede Westbrook, (48) Daeshawn Hamilton, (49) Tyrell Williams

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Gallup didn't really show enough IMO to jump up to that tier, I'd still rather have most of the next tier and half of the one after that over him at this point.  Parker is way too high given the number of chances he's had and his inability to cash in on them.  He's probably two tiers too high.  Reynolds you are really playing for the future as his prospects for next year with Cupp back are really limited. 

Zyphros said:

I wouldn't put it past him at all.  

On a larger note, these Alabama, Ohio St., Clemson (along with other schools) prospects seem to do 1 of 2 things.  1.  Get drafted higher than they should because of their school.  2.  Go rather unnoticed because they're overshadowed by other great prospects at the same school.  At least that's how I see it.  I thnk Campbell is option 2 obviously but that could mean a steal for NFL teams.  Same goes for a guy like Josh Jacobs.  He'll be overdrafted purely because of Alabama and although I think he's worthy of being the 1.01 in rookie picks, I don't think he's worthy of these top half of the 1st round projections I'm seeing in mocks.  Too much risk associated with him, where a guy like Campbell can safely be where he should be drafted, which I think will be in the 2nd-3rd, although I have heard someone mention him as a possible 1st round selection.  Especially if he doees run 4.3's and exceeds at the combine.  

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Keep in mind that mocks almost always have RB's and often WR's going much higher than they end up going in drafts.  They tend to overemphasize flashy positions when a lot more defensive and offensive linemen, CB's, etc. end up going before these guys. 

Men-in-Cleats said:

No idea how Penny is ahead of these guys, he really didn't show much this year other than the one game.  Coleman being a tier ahead of Freeman is odd without knowing what situation he'll land in and his mediocre play this year.  Granted Freeman got hurt but he's still the more talented back of the two and I'd rather have him over Penny or McKinnon.

Gallup didn't really show enough IMO to jump up to that tier, I'd still rather have most of the next tier and half of the one after that over him at this point.  Parker is way too high given the number of chances he's had and his inability to cash in on them.  He's probably two tiers too high.  Reynolds you are really playing for the future as his prospects for next year with Cupp back are really limited. 

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Penny was impressive when he played.  There's no reason to not like him going into 2019 other than Carson still being there.  He has the athleticism, the pedigree, and a growing role, I'm just banking on him gaining more touches as he grows in that system as a player that his talent will come to light over Carson's.  Since I posted those (2 months ago), my rankings have changed a bit though.  Cook has moved up a tier or 2 (sorry going off memory here), while Freeman and Coleman are in the same tier, although I believe I have Freeman higher now.  I'm worried about his injuries and wouldn't want to gamble on a guy like that, soon to be 27, mileage on his tires, and injuries.  The rankings are for dynasty purposes and unless he's of value, he shouldn't be drafted by teams IMO.  

As for Gallup, he was one of my favorite WR's in last years class and he was reliable for Dak.  That offense took giant leaps forward after the Amari deal and Gallup is the compliment to that in a secure role I'd say.  Arguably even more secure than anyone else in that tier.  Parker I wasn't a fan of coming out but he showed some ability and I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt going into a likely new team that doesn't hate him.  Maybe he can resurrect his career a bit since he does have talent.  Reynolds although buried on the depth chart, is probably my favorite WR out of all the Rams WR's he just needs opportunity. 

Dr. Dan said:

Gallup before Cooper:

10 games
36 targets
16 receptions
285 yards
1 TD

Gallup after Cooper:

5 games
32 targets
17 receptions
222 yards
1 TD

I’d say Gallup has done quite a bit since Cooper and his outlook for 2019 is tremendous. Averaging out his targets from the last 5 games for a full 16 game season is 102 targets. Considering that projected volume, and possibly more with the FA departures from Dallas, Gallup is exactly where he should be. I think he is solidly a WR2/flex play next season. Great buy low candidate if his owner in your league is down on him after the Amari trade, not seeing that his production actually went UP after that trade.

ETA: Gallup was never projected to be an NFL WR1, at least to my knowledge. He is a very good WR2 and gives Dallas a great 1-2 punch. Many people are sleeping on him given he spent the first 2/3 of the season in an offense with no identity, and many people felt he was going to be the WR1 with Dez leaving. Things couldn't fall into place more perfect for Gallup

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Cooper and Gallup both project to improve on already decent production as they develop more chemistry with Prescott in their second year. Gallup looks comfortable as a 2 and can grow without all the pressure on him.

Thinking about that, factoring in Zeke's increased pass catching and probably an additional weapon added in free agency or draft and I think Prescott could be in line to exceed expectations. You can wait forever to draft him and he's set up to be a borderline QB1/high-end QB2.

Apple Juice said:

Cooper and Gallup both project to improve on already decent production as they develop more chemistry with Prescott in their second year. Gallup looks comfortable as a 2 and can grow without all the pressure on him.

Thinking about that, factoring in Zeke's increased pass catching and probably an additional weapon added in free agency or draft and I think Prescott could be in line to exceed expectations. You can wait forever to draft him and he's set up to be a borderline QB1/high-end QB2.

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Might just be the best late round QB if you choose to go that route.  Weapon wise, you couldn't really ask for anything more tee'd up than what Dak has to work with.  The question will be his play calling from their new hire.  Can't remember who it was at the moment.  

Zyphros said:

Might just be the best late round QB if you choose to go that route.  Weapon wise, you couldn't really ask for anything more tee'd up than what Dak has to work with.  The question will be his play calling from their new hire.  Can't remember who it was at the moment.  

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Have my doubts. Run heavy team with a real good defense, no te and not much at wr except Cooper. 

voiceofunreason said:

Have my doubts. Run heavy team with a real good defense, no te and not much at wr except Cooper. 

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I agree.  While I really like Prescott for what he’s acheived to date, I get the feeling he’s already hit his ceiling.  I see him limited by his own ability, weapons around him, and scheme.

The finalized version of pre-combine rankings, including TE's and QB's, since I didn't have them included before.  

I've decided to start trying to standardize the tiers across future years and I figured out a way to do that (I think) after discussing with @ZWK a bit , along with a few rules I'm going to implement into how I rank them on a rookie board.  ZWK pointed out the Lance Zierlein does something similar that is subjective based and he put's a numerical value to his prospects where as I'm putting them in a tier.  I'm just going to list them in their positional order, so QB's first, RB's next and then WR's and TE's.  My tiers go like this:

Tier 1 - The God Tier - There's 0 guys this year I feel qualify, this would be reserved for the Saquons of the world.  But Hockensen came really close to me putting him here.  

Tier 2 - The Demi-God Tier - Guys that create some sort of legend for themselves but not generational

AJ Brown, N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, and TJ Hockensen

Tier 3 - The Fighter Tier - Otherwise known as very solid players, above average with a decent chance to be special

Dwayne Haskins, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, DK Metcalf, Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel, Irv Smith Jr., and Noah Fant

Tier 4 - The Good Soldier Tier - Otherwise known as solid enough players, could be special in the right circumstances

Kyler Murray, Elijah Holyfield, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Brown, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, Anthony Ratliff-Williams, Jace Sternberger, and Caleb Wilson

Tier 5 - Questionable Starter Tier - No fancy name sorry 

Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Will Grier, Benny Snell Jr., Mike Weber, Trayveon Williams, Devin Ozigbo, Jalin Moore, Keesean Johnson, Keelan Doss, John Ursua, Riley Ridley, David Sills, and Kaden Smith

Tier 6 - The Flier Type Tier - No fancy name sorry 

Rodney Anderson, Justice Hill, , Bryce Love, LJ Scott, Myles Gaskin, Tyre Brady, Olamiday Zaccheaus, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Cody Thompson, Anthony Johnson

This includes 49 players total, 5 QB's, 17 RB's, 21 WR's, 6 TE's, anyone not listed I haven't done an eval for.  

The rules I have so far are based on positional value all compared to WR's as a baseline.  For example with TE being devalued compared to other positions, RB being what most people covet more and carrying a higher price usually, and QB carrying a lower price, I'm going to view TE's 1 tier down from their ranking (Tier 1 TE = Tier 2 WR), RB's as 1 tier up from their ranking (Tier 2 RB = Tier 1 WR), and QB's as 1 tier down from their ranking (Tier 1 QB = Tier 2 WR).  That should help me a lot in determining who I should be ranking ahead/behind others when I come with a comprehensive list.  I don't want to place players in those tiers at the beginning because I feel that sells them short of their talent which is why I'm ranking them in their skill appropriate tier.  This will be the first year I implement this system but I look forward to seeing it progress in future years.  I compared the system to past years and it seemed to match up rather well which is why I basically finalized it for my process.  Should help me with my project of ranking people across classes in the future.  

Dr. Dan said:

Gallup before Cooper:

10 games
36 targets
16 receptions
285 yards
1 TD

Gallup after Cooper:

5 games
32 targets
17 receptions
222 yards
1 TD

I’d say Gallup has done quite a bit since Cooper and his outlook for 2019 is tremendous. Averaging out his targets from the last 5 games for a full 16 game season is 102 targets. Considering that projected volume, and possibly more with the FA departures from Dallas, Gallup is exactly where he should be. I think he is solidly a WR2/flex play next season. Great buy low candidate if his owner in your league is down on him after the Amari trade, not seeing that his production actually went UP after that trade.

ETA: Gallup was never projected to be an NFL WR1, at least to my knowledge. He is a very good WR2 and gives Dallas a great 1-2 punch. Many people are sleeping on him given he spent the first 2/3 of the season in an offense with no identity, and many people felt he was going to be the WR1 with Dez leaving. Things couldn't fall into place more perfect for Gallup

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I might be more optimistic if I felt the Dallas offense could support two rosterworthy WR's, they are a run first team with a QB who doesn't push the ball down the field. 

My top rookies pre combine list is way different.  I'm surprised how different it is even though this is typical before the combine and landing spots.  I've got a top 20 for PPR that looks like this:

Harry

Harmon

AJ Brown

Metcalf

Montgomery

Fant

Hockenson

Butler

Jacobs

Ridley 

Holyfield

Henderson

Miles Sanders

Singletary

K Johnson

Campbell

Samuel

M Brown

Arcega-Whiteside

P Williams 

Irv Smith

Most notably I have Jacobs and Holyfield way lower, and I don't think Benny Snell is in my top 30.  I have Ridley and KeeSean Johnson way higher.  I love route runners I guess. 

Zyphros said:

I wouldn't put it past him at all.  

On a larger note, these Alabama, Ohio St., Clemson (along with other schools) prospects seem to do 1 of 2 things.  1.  Get drafted higher than they should because of their school.  2.  Go rather unnoticed because they're overshadowed by other great prospects at the same school.  At least that's how I see it.  I thnk Campbell is option 2 obviously but that could mean a steal for NFL teams.  Same goes for a guy like Josh Jacobs.  He'll be overdrafted purely because of Alabama and although I think he's worthy of being the 1.01 in rookie picks, I don't think he's worthy of these top half of the 1st round projections I'm seeing in mocks.  Too much risk associated with him, where a guy like Campbell can safely be where he should be drafted, which I think will be in the 2nd-3rd, although I have heard someone mention him as a possible 1st round selection.  Especially if he doees run 4.3's and exceeds at the combine.  

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You have a point, but that also happens with small school players. Different reasons but either they dominate their competition and look great because of it, or nobody knows about them or what to expect. 

voiceofunreason said:

Have my doubts. Run heavy team with a real good defense, no te and not much at wr except Cooper. 

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Hmm, could be describing the Titans (basically, though Walker should be back), Ravens... 

Dr. Dan said:

You dont think Gallup is roster-worthy? Do you play in short bench leagues? 

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He obviously is in dynasty right now due to his potential but I'm not confident that he's in the right place to where he'll become a fantasy starter or develop much in the way of redraft value.  Maybe down the road he ends up somewhere he'll have better opportunity but I'm not seeing much value there since they got Cooper as he won't see enough targets to remain on someone's roster down the road. 

Dr. Dan said:

You dont think Gallup is roster-worthy? Do you play in short bench leagues? 

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Roster worthy yes....every week starter? Nope

I'm curious to see if the combine performances have much effect on your overall rankings.  While I understand the tape may hold more weight than combine measurements, I also know the general rankings/consensus is all over the map.  A small impact on the overall outlook of a player could still cause non-small changes to rankings if a number of players are tightly grouped.  For example:

Zyphros said:

#4 - Elijah Holyfield RB 

#5 - Kelvin Harmon WR

#6 - David Montgomery RB

#7 - DK Metcalf WR

#8 - Miles Sanders RB

#9 - Damien Harris RB

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Does Holyfield's poor performance at the combine cause him to drop 1 or 2 positions, or to the bottom of this list?  It'll be interesting to see how closely you have some of these guys ranked.

Maven25 said:

I'm curious to see if the combine performances have much effect on your overall rankings.  While I understand the tape may hold more weight than combine measurements, I also know the general rankings/consensus is all over the map.  A small impact on the overall outlook of a player could still cause non-small changes to rankings if a number of players are tightly grouped.  For example:

Does Holyfield's poor performance at the combine cause him to drop 1 or 2 positions, or to the bottom of this list?  It'll be interesting to see how closely you have some of these guys ranked.

Click to expand...

During the combine I look for answers to my questions.  For Holyfield specifically I had questions about his speed (didn't think it would be that bad though), his receiving ability and his lateral quickness.  I thought he'd prove at least 2/3 of those things right.  Turns out he failed at all of them.  He looked rather awful during the drills to my eyes and just turned in a poor workout.  So now my projection of what he is has completely changed.  He's now a 2 down thumper in my mind which basically drops him drastically.  I'm waiting for his pro day to see if he still has speed but even if he proves that, I doubt he'd crack a top20. 

His landing spot will be crucial as a grinder RB but we've all seen how those generally end up over time these days.  Jordan Howard, Fournette (value) on the downslopes and I'm sure there are others I'm just going off the top of my head.  They might have a peak value of RB10ish and if they even reach that they won't hold it for long.  I'll be looking elsewhere in my drafts very likely.  

Post Combine rankings. 

I took my finalize pre-combine list (a couple posts up) and sorted them out into a ranking's list based on my rules, then moved guys up or down a tier based on their combine performance.  That led me to a talent list, which I organized into a rookie draft list not allowing myself players to jump tiers.  Based on FFPC scoring since those are the majority of my leagues now.  This is what I came up with along with a few notes about some players:

1 - AJ Brown - Probably a bit controversial but I don't view Metcalf or Harry with the kind of safety that Brown provides in the 1.01, also has the ceiling so he seems like a no brainer

2 - Josh Jacobs 

3 - N'Keal Harry - Still worries me a bit but I'm putting my trust in some people I listen to and what I saw initially to be enough

4 - DK Metcalf - Big plays for sure but 80+ catches every year?  Maybe, maybe not

5 - TJ Hockenson

6 - David Montgomery - Very clear top5 for me, so tier break at 6 here

7 - Kelvin Harmon

8 - Deebo Samuel

9 - Noah Fant - Drop rate is concerning but he's super talented, also doesn't block which is why I prefer Hockenson

10 - Miles Sanders - Workhorse potential

11 - Hakeem Butler

12 - Andy Isabella

13 - Preston Williams - had to slot him in somewhere and it's basically right after all the WR's I'd be comfortable drafting.  This is where the risky picks start

14 - Irv Smith Jr

15 - Kyler Murray

16 - Parris Campbell - All purpose weapon could be a nice find for creative coaches

17 - Dwayne Haskins

18 - Darrell Henderson

19 - JJ Arcega-Whiteside

20 - Ashton Dulin - I can't find any videos of his play anywhere, but profile I like a lot and I'm ready to take a shot on him here

21 - Miles Boykin

22 - Devin Ozigbo - Workhorse potential

23 - Jalin Moore - Workhorse potential

24 - Justice Hill

25 - Damien Harris

26 - Anthony Ratliff-Williams - My sneaky sleeper WR of the year, personal favorite

27 - Marquise Brown - I actually like him more than this ranking suggests but he's being pushed down by guys who I perceive to be more consistent or higher ceiling, also the 166 lb's worries me.  If I ranked him safer rather than preferring some risk he'd be closer to #15

28 - Alex Barnes - Workhorse potential and plays exactly like Rex Burkhead to me and he was a favorite sleeper of many not too long ago, needs a good team fit

29 - Caleb Wilson - Sneaky TE play, better stats than Fant but less of an athlete (still a pretty good one though)

30 - Elijah Holyfield

After that there really aren't any big names to mention with the list so I won't continue it but names that didn't make a top30:  Emanuel Butler, Mike Weber, Trayveon Williams, Benny Snell Jr., Bryce Love, Jace Sternberger, any other QB.

I only see 6 RB's that have the potential to be every down players.  Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, Devin Ozigbo, Jalin Moore, Alex Barnes all have workhorse potential, which is why I have them higher than some others.  Those are the only RB's that I see with that ceiling.  

Let's get to some dynasty rankings that include the rookies.  Overall rankings based on tiers.  Don't draft a guy in tier3 when a guy in tier2 is available and so on.  Simple.  I have a startup draft coming this weekend and I wanted to get these out to hear some feedback before then.  I'm leaving QB's out because those are all separate draft slots than their tiers indicate.  Based on TE premium scoring, while the WR's, RB's and TE's are in order of who I prefer, the order in the tier is not exactly accurate.  I just listed them WR, RB, and then TE.  I compare everyone in a tier and make a pick off that.  Less of a "list" to go off of, more of a group.  I think that serves me better than an exact order since drafts are flexible. 

There are certain names I left off because in startups I want nothing to do with non elite aging vets.  LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Adam Thielen, Larry Fitzgerald, those types. 

Tier 1 - DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, OBJ, Davante Adams, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Zeke Elliott, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara

Tier 2 - JuJu Smith Schuster, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Nick Chubb, David Johnson, Travis Kelce, George Kittle

Tier 3 - Brandin Cooks, Kenny Golladay, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, N'Keal Harry, Julio Jones, Robert Woods, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, TY Hilton, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs, Le'Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, OJ Howard, Zach Ertz

Tier 4 - Kelvin Harmon, Deebo Samuel, Corey Davis, Tyler Boyd, Cooper Kupp, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Andy Isabella, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny, Phillip Lindsey, Marlon Mack, David Montgomery, Damien Williams, Tarik Cohen, Royce Freeman, Miles Sanders, Chris Carson, Jaylen Samuels, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, David Njoku, TJ Hockensen

Tier 5 - Parris Campbell, Dante Pettis, Hakeem Butler, Allen Robinson, Curtis Samuel, Calvin Ridley, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton, , Preston Williams, Darrell Henderson, Matt Breida, Devonta Freeman, TJ Yeldon, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justin Jackson, D'Onte Foreman, Irv Smith Jr, Noah Fant, Ian Thomas, Dallas Goedert, Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald

That's basically a top100 (98) and includes my top20 rookies as well (other than Ashton Dulin), so I'm going to stop right there for now.  Not even sure if I'm going to go any further.  

Most of the rookies start coming off the board around the 3rd round according to this which might be a bit high, but like I said I favor age quite a bit in a startup.  

Zyphros said:

Let's get to some dynasty rankings that include the rookies.  Overall rankings based on tiers.  Don't draft a guy in tier3 when a guy in tier2 is available and so on.  Simple.  I have a startup draft coming this weekend and I wanted to get these out to hear some feedback before then.  I'm leaving QB's out because those are all separate draft slots than their tiers indicate.  Based on TE premium scoring, while the WR's, RB's and TE's are in order of who I prefer, the order in the tier is not exactly accurate.  I just listed them WR, RB, and then TE.  I compare everyone in a tier and make a pick off that.  Less of a "list" to go off of, more of a group.  I think that serves me better than an exact order since drafts are flexible. 

There are certain names I left off because in startups I want nothing to do with non elite aging vets.  LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Adam Thielen, Larry Fitzgerald, those types. 

Tier 1 - DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, OBJ, Davante Adams, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Zeke Elliott, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara

Tier 2 - JuJu Smith Schuster, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Nick Chubb, David Johnson, Travis Kelce, George Kittle

Tier 3 - Brandin Cooks, Kenny Golladay, DJ Moore, AJ Brown, N'Keal Harry, Julio Jones, Robert Woods, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, TY Hilton, Kerryon Johnson, Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs, Le'Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, OJ Howard, Zach Ertz

Tier 4 - Kelvin Harmon, Deebo Samuel, Corey Davis, Tyler Boyd, Cooper Kupp, AJ Green, Antonio Brown, Andy Isabella, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, Rashaad Penny, Phillip Lindsey, Marlon Mack, David Montgomery, Damien Williams, Tarik Cohen, Royce Freeman, Miles Sanders, Chris Carson, Jaylen Samuels, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, David Njoku, TJ Hockensen

Tier 5 - Parris Campbell, Dante Pettis, Hakeem Butler, Allen Robinson, Curtis Samuel, Calvin Ridley, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton, , Preston Williams, Darrell Henderson, Matt Breida, Devonta Freeman, TJ Yeldon, Kenyan Drake, Tevin Coleman, Jerrick McKinnon, Justin Jackson, D'Onte Foreman, Irv Smith Jr, Noah Fant, Ian Thomas, Dallas Goedert, Eric Ebron, Vance McDonald

That's basically a top100 (98) and includes my top20 rookies as well (other than Ashton Dulin), so I'm going to stop right there for now.  Not even sure if I'm going to go any further.  

Most of the rookies start coming off the board around the 3rd round according to this which might be a bit high, but like I said I favor age quite a bit in a startup.  

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Overall I like. I don’t see Derrick Henry anywhere. Am I just missing him?

Nope you're not missing him

Zyphros said:

Nope you're not missing him

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Yeah, if intentional that’s odd at best considering some of the names that made the cut (Yeldon, Justin Jackson, Vance McDonald, Royce Freeman, etc).  Care to expand?

SayWhat? said:

Yeah, if intentional that’s odd at best considering some of the names that made the cut (Yeldon, Justin Jackson, Vance McDonald, Royce Freeman, etc).  Care to expand?

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I don't think he has a place in modern day NFL, and if he does it won't be for long when teams should be ahead of the curve not 20 years in the past.  Especially in PPR leagues.  I put more of a premium on handcuff type of RB's with full workload profiles than I do 2 down thumpers that won't hold up over time.  I call that my Jordan Howard lesson I learned a few years ago.  That's half the reason, the other is I believe the Titans are going to be re-working that entire team in a year and I want no part of them when they do other than Davis who has the talent profile to be successful somewhere else.  Henry does not.  

As for the other RB's you mentioned, Yeldon could be a feature back still in free agency, Melvin Gordon isn't signed long term yet, and Freeman has a good talent profile although behind Lindsay, but LIndsay isn't even a 75% workload type of guy so plenty of touches for all.  And I just like Justin Jackson a lot from what he showed last year.  

Zyphros said:

I don't think he has a place in modern day NFL, and if he does it won't be for long when teams should be ahead of the curve not 20 years in the past.  Especially in PPR leagues.  I put more of a premium on handcuff type of RB's with full workload profiles than I do 2 down thumpers that won't hold up over time.  I call that my Jordan Howard lesson I learned a few years ago.  That's half the reason, the other is I believe the Titans are going to be re-working that entire team in a year and I want no part of them when they do other than Davis who has the talent profile to be successful somewhere else.  Henry does not.  

As for the other RB's you mentioned, Yeldon could be a feature back still in free agency, Melvin Gordon isn't signed long term yet, and Freeman has a good talent profile although behind Lindsay, but LIndsay isn't even a 75% workload type of guy so plenty of touches for all.  And I just like Justin Jackson a lot from what he showed last year.  

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Thanks for responding.  Definitely agree with the general premise regarding a decreased valuation for non pass catching RBs.  Howard is a pretty great example that I agree with, as I feel like he’s proven pretty conclusively that he can’t catch the ball. 

I guess I don’t see Henry as hopeless in that regard as you do.  And regardless of how decent Yeldon is at catching passes, Yeldon can not be a feature back in the NFL.  I think there’s a near zero chance that any team signs him with that intent.  There’s pretty much zero Henry owners that would trade him for Yeldon, and every single Yeldon owner would do cartwheels to flip him for Henry.  Besides one.   But that’s the fun of this, and appreciate you taking the stance you are and defending it.

SayWhat? said:

Thanks for responding.  Definitely agree with the general premise regarding a decreased valuation for non pass catching RBs.  Howard is a pretty great example that I agree with, as I feel like he’s proven pretty conclusively that he can’t catch the ball. 

I guess I don’t see Henry as hopeless in that regard as you do.  And regardless of how decent Yeldon is at catching passes, Yeldon can not be a feature back in the NFL.  I think there’s a near zero chance that any team signs him with that intent.  There’s pretty much zero Henry owners that would trade him for Yeldon, and every single Yeldon owner would do cartwheels to flip him for Henry.  Besides one.   But that’s the fun of this, and appreciate you taking the stance you are and defending it.

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Henry is probably a decent pass catcher, I just refuse to give him credit.  It's a very irrational ranking honestly.  I simply have no dynasty faith in Henry.  He's lower on my list but I see his value.  I'm sure he has his fans but I imagine he's a guy that people want cheaper than what other rankers might have him at.  Either way he wont be on my teams, and if he were I imagine it would difficult to find a person who is favorable to him.  I wouldn't trade Henry for Yeldon straight up either, but at least I see hope in Yeldon who has filled in relatively well when Fournette has been out.  First 8 weeks of 2018 he averaged 16.88 points per game in FFPC, then bye week 9 and Fournette was back.  I believe he can at least be a good back in a tandem backfield, with the chance to be more.  

To say you wouldn’t trade Henry for Yeldon but you have Yeldon ranked ahead of him seems odd.

I appreciate the explanation and the stance, though I strongly disagree.

Zyphros said:

There are certain names I left off because in startups I want nothing to do with non elite aging vets.  LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram, Adam Thielen, Larry Fitzgerald, those types. 

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Is 5 years in the league the cut-off?  Thielen had me scratching my head.  The team is trying to resign him to a new 4 year deal.  He isn't a receiver that relies on speed as much as good technique.  I see him playing at least 5 more years, barring injury.  That is more than enough for me to have a player if he performs well for me in a start-up IMO.  Fitz and McCoy are understandable due to age and wear.  Ingram may have a few good years in Baltimore if he can stay healthy.  I suspect Baltimore is about to rebuild the defense significantly along the D Line in this draft.  If Ingram can take the pounding... 

Just throwing in some juice. Only one I really would take issue with is Thielen.  I think he has a half decade left on the tread.  Thielen or Fant? Thielen or Justin Jackson? Just saying,   

Hairy Snowman said:

Is 5 years in the league the cut-off?  Thielen had me scratching my head.  The team is trying to resign him to a new 4 year deal.  He isn't a receiver that relies on speed as much as good technique.  I see him playing at least 5 more years, barring injury.  That is more than enough for me to have a player if he performs well for me in a start-up IMO.  Fitz and McCoy are understandable due to age and wear.  Ingram may have a few good years in Baltimore if he can stay healthy.  I suspect Baltimore is about to rebuild the defense significantly along the D Line in this draft.  If Ingram can take the pounding... 

Just throwing in some juice. Only one I really would take issue with is Thielen.  I think he has a half decade left on the tread.  Thielen or Fant? Thielen or Justin Jackson? Just saying,   

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I'll have to add him back into the ranking with him being 29 when season begins, I was thinking he was 31 or something.  Brain fart.  I don't see his value increasing over the rest of his career though so he'll be low.  Right ahead of AJ Green in tier4.  Jeffery is another I left off because I want nothing to do with him but he's about the same age.  I'm keeping him off but Thielen deserves to be added.  

Zyphros said:

Most of the rookies start coming off the board around the 3rd round according to this which might be a bit high, but like I said I favor age quite a bit in a startup.  

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Nice list .....  I appreciate you sharing your thoughts and perspective.  I understand  & agree with your "aging" devaluation in a startup, but sometimes, they are all that makes sense.  

On your Rookie comment -->  This would likely explain all the offers I have been receiving for my rookie picks   

Boyd, Kirk, Freeman, Cohen each separate offers for my 1.03-1.05 picks (2 leagues).

kutta said:

To say you wouldn’t trade Henry for Yeldon but you have Yeldon ranked ahead of him seems odd.

I appreciate the explanation and the stance, though I strongly disagree.

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Kind of curious about this too.  Yeldon is not good, which can explain a lot as to why he's not on an NFL roster right now.

beef said:

Kind of curious about this too.  Yeldon is not good, which can explain a lot as to why he's not on an NFL roster right now.

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What makes you say Yeldon isn't good?  Obviously the interest has been low up until now and we don't know where he'll land so that's not a good sign, but every time Fournette has been out, Yeldon's filled in nicely, and he had good games when he was the feature back as well.  He's no different than Damien Williams who was a career backup until now and all of a sudden he's a 3rd round startup pick (30.3 in FFPC leagues).  His ranking hinges on him signing somewhere good, which the odds are probably low I'll admit, but he could be a 70%+ workload RB somewhere, a lot of guys don't have that potential.  

I know I didn't list the RB's after tier 5, but its filled with bad COP backs, or minimal touches guys, or dark horse rookie picks.  Dion Lewis, Gio Bernard, Ito Smith, Ronald Jones, Elijah McGuire to name a few.  You'd rather have those guys ahead of Yeldon?  

The highest rated rookie I have in Tier 5 is Parris Campbell.  I have him at #13 overall on my rookie board (I've updated a little since my last rookie post).  That equates to an early 2nd depending on league size.  And you slowly work your way down that tier and price drops.  The last rookie in the dynasty rankings in that tier being JJ Arcega-Whiteside, #19 overall on my rookie board (actually Preston Williams but I have him higher on my rookie board for personal reasons).  Both of who I'd likely take ahead of Yeldon.  The RB landscape as a whole sucks after halfway through tier4 where I start calling some shots.  So with these rankings I'm saying I'd take a chance on Yeldon for a rookie pick after #19.  Yeldon is just one of those dart throws I'd rather take a chance on than a late 2nd early 3rd round rookie pick RB in a bad class.  Once he signs somewhere we'll know more but for now I'm being optimistic.

Zyphros said:

What makes you say Yeldon isn't good?  Obviously the interest has been low up until now and we don't know where he'll land so that's not a good sign, but every time Fournette has been out, Yeldon's filled in nicely, and he had good games when he was the feature back as well.  He's no different than Damien Williams who was a career backup until now and all of a sudden he's a 3rd round startup pick (30.3 in FFPC leagues).  His ranking hinges on him signing somewhere good, which the odds are probably low I'll admit, but he could be a 70%+ workload RB somewhere, a lot of guys don't have that potential.  

I know I didn't list the RB's after tier 5, but its filled with bad COP backs, or minimal touches guys, or dark horse rookie picks.  Dion Lewis, Gio Bernard, Ito Smith, Ronald Jones, Elijah McGuire to name a few.  You'd rather have those guys ahead of Yeldon?  

The highest rated rookie I have in Tier 5 is Parris Campbell.  I have him at #13 overall on my rookie board (I've updated a little since my last rookie post).  That equates to an early 2nd depending on league size.  And you slowly work your way down that tier and price drops.  The last rookie in the dynasty rankings in that tier being JJ Arcega-Whiteside, #19 overall on my rookie board (actually Preston Williams but I have him higher on my rookie board for personal reasons).  Both of who I'd likely take ahead of Yeldon.  The RB landscape as a whole sucks after halfway through tier4 where I start calling some shots.  So with these rankings I'm saying I'd take a chance on Yeldon for a rookie pick after #19.  Yeldon is just one of those dart throws I'd rather take a chance on than a late 2nd early 3rd round rookie pick RB in a bad class.  Once he signs somewhere we'll know more but for now I'm being optimistic.

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Very low PFF grades, even as a receiver and blocker which people say he's good at.  And so far, limited to zero interest from other teams.  There isn't anything he's great at that makes him a valuable asset to a team.  I honestly think he'll be out of the NFL soon.

Figured I'd give an update on some rankings before landing spots are official.  My last rookie rankings were in the beginning of March and things have changed.  I've basically moved a lot of WR's up which push some RB's down.  I see tier breaks after 3, 7, 13, and 18, and then it kind of becomes what flavor of player do you like most.  

Rookie board based on FFPC scoring (TE premium, 1QB, full ppr):

1 - AJ Brown

2. N'Keal Harry

3. TJ Hockenson

4. DK Metcalf

5. Kelvin Harmon

6. Deebo Samuel

7. Miles Sanders

8. Noah Fant

9. Josh Jacobs

10. Darrell Henderson

11. Andy Isabella

12. Parris Campbell

13. Hakeem Butler

14. David Montgomery

15. Damien Harris

16. Preston Williams

17. Irv Smith Jr. 

18. Ashton Dulin

19. JJ Arcega-Whiteside

20. Marquise Brown

After 20 it's a lot of underrated players that have been pumped up along with a run on QB's.  Just don't want to make the list very long so here's the next 20:

Kyler Murray, Emmanuel Butler, Jalin Moore, Will Grier, Mike Weber, Dwayne Haskins, Demarkus Lodge, Justice Hill, Anthony Ratliff-Williams, Miles Boykin, Alex Barnes, Ty Johnson, Drew Lock, Devine Ozigbo, Keesean Johnson, Jace Sternberger, Darrin Hall, Dexter Williams, Trayveon Williams, Travis Homer

That's my top40.  Some notable names that just missed the cut, Keelan Doss, David Sills, Bryce Love, Miles Gaskin, Terry McLaurin, Rodney Anderson, Benny Snell, Devin Singletary.  If I'm being honest, I think Bryce Love, Rodney Anderson and Devin Singletary SHOULD be ranked somewhere in the top40, but they don't meet my criteria I'm looking for in a RB in a lot of cases and with the class being bad I just left them off and bumped some with high ceilings.  I wouldn't mind if those guys were drafted after pick ~20.  

Dr. Dan said:

Hall?

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No, Butler.  I like Hall enough and he's obviously a great athlete but when I see Butler, I see a guy that just wins.  I don't really see that same attitude towards Hall.  Butler isn't anywhere close to the athlete that Hall is so this is where my mind clashes between tape and athleticism.  

First round reactions from a fantasy perspective. 

I instantly moved Josh Jacobs up to #3.  Behind my 2 stud WR's.  I'm still hopeful that AJ Brown gets in a good spot, but with Harry at #32 in the draft it kind of depends on the gap between the two of them in terms of draft capital.  Depends on AJ's landing spot but he's now the odd man out in the new top3.  

Sanders doesn't have his spot yet, but he's another one that could fight for top5 if his capital isn't too far behind Jacobs'.  Depends on spot and how far he slides now.  

That moves Hockenson down to #4 which I'm ok with.  I don't love the landing spot for fantasy, I think it's more NFL friendly, but he'll still be solid there.  

I also instantly moved DK Metcalf to #9.  I thought the league viewed him more as a do everything type of receiver that could go early 1st round, this makes it clear in my mind that he is more deep threat than feature WR.  Clearly he didn't get drafted on day 1 so my view is that he's a different type of receiver than some others but the capital will be the same so I won't view him higher than the others.  Preference in style I suppose.  Not a bad WR but I want shots on guys I view as all around receivers before I take the "deep threat" in my drafts.  He's now right behind Harmon/Deebo/Sanders group as I see them all going day 2.  

Noah Fant might be super underrated as a fantasy asset though.  He's now right ahead of Metcalf on my sheet.  Fant the new #8.  Flacco loves himself some TE's and he's a receiver not a blocker, plus the WR's in Denver aren't anything special.  Plenty of funneled targets to Fant could be possible.  Probably the highest I'd have him though as day 2 could throw some wrenches into that.  

And lastly Marquise Brown was #20, I'll probably keep him there and that should be enough for me to not get him on my teams.  Perfectly ok with that as I don't particularly love the talent.  Again the draft capital of the others ahead of him are key to his rise/fall.  I expect most, if not all, of the guys ranked ahead of him to go relatively soon so I don't see him moving up.  

Agree, or close enough with my tentative rankings that I wouldn't argue.  I'd be OK with people putting Jacobs #1 in RB heavey leagues or if in dire need of a RB.  I still like Fant, maybe even more .  The only thing I question is the NFL's view that DK being an everything type WR when he never proved he was one in college.  I'm love him in his underwear, but as a WR I've never truly trusted him as a top prospect.    

beef said:

Agree, or close enough with my tentative rankings that I wouldn't argue.  I'd be OK with people putting Jacobs #1 in RB heavey leagues or if in dire need of a RB.  I still like Fant, maybe even more .  The only thing I question is the NFL's view that DK being an everything type WR when he never proved he was one in college.  I'm love him in his underwear, but as a WR I've never truly trusted him as a top prospect.    

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I don't judge 

Overall breakdown of landing spots.  I'm going to use a immediate classification along with a light color, classic red light, yellow light, green light analogy.  So 3 categories. 

Immediate impact Green Light people:  These are the guys that have very little in front of them along with high draft capital that the team also didn't invest in the same position very much if at all.  Immediate impact and green light to get started.  Think of these as the higher end redraft picks. 

Josh Jacobs, N'keal Harry, TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuel, Noah Fant, DK Metcalf, Kyler Murray, Mecole Hardman, Kahale Warring, Jace Sternberger

Immediate Impact Yellow Light:  Guys with what looks to be solid starting opportunity, but the draft capital isn't as high or they invested multiple times at the position so it's harder to know which of them will separate themselves from the pack.  Basically they have more competition but the situations are decent or very good.  

Miles Sanders, Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella, Irv Smith Jr., Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler, David Montgomery, Damien Harris, Dwayne Haskins, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Marquise Brown, Justice Hill, Miles Boykin, Alex Barnes, Devine Ozigbo, Keesean Johnson, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, Dawson Knox, Jalen Hurd, Myles Gaskin, Dexter Williams, Zach Gentry, Drew Lock, Josh Oliver, 

Immediate Impact Red Light:  Hard to see these guys making an immediate impact but still have a small chance.  Mostly highly ranked players that are in bad situations.  Definite avoids in redraft, pushed down the board a good bit in dynasty.  

AJ Brown, Darrell Henderson, Riley Ridley, Bryce Love, Devin Singletary, Travis Homer, Kaden Smith, Benny Snell Jr., Rodney Anderson

That covers most of the notable names I think.  If I missed anyone let me know and I can add them in somewhere.  I'd say the ones I did miss are probably UDFA guys that are a wait and see approach with anyways.