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I know anecdotal evidence is generally worthless, but this is a pretty special catch. I'm not saying he's a special pass catcher, but I think he just might be better than most people are giving him credit for.
Took him in one rookie draft, but wish I had drafted him in more. I wouldn't pay more than WR2 prices in dynasty, but he has a chance to be very good.
I'd call Chubb an above average pass catcher, and I'd disagree with you with Gurley saying he is special. McCaffrey, Saquon, Gurley, DJ, Lev Bell, Mixon I'd say are the only workhorse ones I'd call special in that area. I don't include Kamara because he isn't really a workhorse, at least yet, but he's special in that area as well.
Same guy being they do the same things. Maybe a discount version of Cooks is a better way of saying it but they're virtually the same player in style and ability. Lockett is on a less prolific offense so his numbers obviously won't match up to Cooks, but Cooks has done it on multiple teams as well. He's safe, but he doesn't have weeks he single handily wins you weeks. He'll either get you 100 yards, 6+ catches, or a TD plus one of those. Not bad at all. Safe isn't bad, but their roles generally don't expand and they're possibly replaceable with up and comer talents.Dr. Octopus said:
You really think Gurley is a special pass catcher? I've never heard anyone say that before. He's in a special system and gets plenty of volume in the passing game, but as a route runner or catcher there's nothing that stands out about him.
Hard to ignore that Conner's stats indicate the system propped up Bell's stats. If he ends up on the Jets next year, I don't think I'll be reaching for Bell in redrafts or trading for him in dynasty.
Strange omission. Anything could happen in the offseason with the 49ers, but if they don't add a big name via free agency (not that there is one) or draft one in the 1st round, Pettis (23.1) seems like a lock to be the WR1 for Shanahan's 3rd season with the 49ers. Garcon will be 33. Goodwin has flashed a couple times, but he'll be turning 29 next season and is likely nothing more than a 5'9" burner. That leaves Kittle and Pettis as JG's primary targets.
I'm sorry, but this just seems like you're making things up to justify a ranking. Obviously I'm not saying your wrong in your ranking, because you're rankings are your rankings - but the "logic" seems very contrived at best.
Lockett's biggest enemy hasn't been his QB (Wilson is pretty good) it's been himself - he's had a tough time staying healthy. I'm not an "injury prone" guy so it's likely just been bad luck - but I don't think playing with Brees, a Brady whose deep ball has failed him and Goff is such an advantage over playing with Wilson (although I will admit Cooks played in better volume passing offenses).
I don't disagree. Health has clearly been his biggest problem, but volume will almost certainly always be a problem for him in Seattle. Aside from the year he was hurt, he's always done well with the targets he's gotten. That's why I say it would've been interesting to see how he did with Brees. I'd love to see him get 120 Brees targets.
Small sample size, but Pettis and Golladay have been the default WR1 for their teams for four weeks now. Pettis is catching passes from Nick Mullins and Golladay from Matt Stafford:
I think he’s talking about replaceable in fantasy lineups, not on their real teams.
Maybe, it's not really clear but I would disagree either way - with the caveat that in fantasy you could theorectically say that about any player I guess.
I see a couple of holes in the list. There are no current KC Chiefs, Spencer Ware should be on there in tier 4 or 5, Damien Williams tier 7 and Darrel Williams tier 9. Probably at least 2 of these guys will be back next year. I would move Kareem down a few rounds since he likely won't do anything in 2019.
I have watched Bell. I have watched Conner. They are not the same guy just because their stats are similar. I have zero fear of Bell being awesome wherever he goes.
I agree Bell is better, but was mainly pointing out why his value has dropped.
Okay me saying zero fear was an over step. If he winds up on the Jets. That will be worse than in Pitt but I do still believe in his talent winning out. He would be the entire offense on most teams and heavily involved in the passing game. He could wind up in Indy too. In my opinion, he’s tier one in a good spot for the next 3 years and tier 2 in a lesser spot.
Indy would be enticing. And as much as the Jets would scare me right now, it's not impossible that Darnold takes a big step year 2 and maybe they improve OL/WR. But I couldn't see taking him over the likes of Chubb or Guice.
Ware is a free agent in 2019 and while I'm not sure he'll be in high demand around the league I'm also not sure the Chiefs will be all that anxious to bring him back. Damien Williams is a decent back but I don't see any team feeling great about him being their starting back and who knows on UDFA Darrel Williams. Personally I think there's a better than 50% chance that the starting RB for the Chiefs in 2019 is not on their current roster.
I really doubt that they don't bring back one or two of the current guys. He won't want to start from scratch.
I didn't say none of the three will be back - I said I there's a better than average chance next year's starter is not on the current roster imo. Obviously it's possible Ware re-signs and keeps his job or Darrell Williams slots in (I do believe they like him) but it's also possible they draft or sign a free agent that steps into the starting role. My guess is the later situation plays out. That doesn't mean Ware, Williams and Williams have no dynasty value (I roster one of the Williams in every dynasty league I'm in - and even Charcandrick West in one) but they are end of rosters stashes imo and by the start of next season could be back on the waiver wire.
Hilton has had weeks where he has single handily won your week for you and his targets are more secure than Cooks' I think. I didn't look into target data but you just compare the players around each and obviously the Rams are winning in that. That usually means it's more spread out, which is one reason I have 3 Rams WR's so close together. But I put Hilton higher because he's guaranteed his targets, and it's possibly for him to outright win you that weeks matchup. Cooks isn't going to do that for you.
You mean holes being that I said in my post that I wasn't comfortable with knowing where I would put Ware in so I decided to leave him off? Ok, point out something against a specific statement I made as a hole.... Ok. As for the other RB's none of them are worthy of being in a top55 list.
Cooks has outscored Hilton on the season (we can call it a draw though since its so close). I don't know how you define "single handedly" winning your week for you but the only huge week Hilton had was week 11 where he went 9-155-2 (36.5 points in ppr). However, including that week, Hilton has 3 weeks where he scored above 20 fantasy points (so 2 other weeks). Cooks has 4 weeks where he did that. I do not think Hilton had any more impact on fantasy wins and losses than Cooks did.
That's my point though, depending on where you put the goalposts of "winning a week for you" Hilton at least reaches that, while Cooks might get you close to that without achieving it a little more often on a consistent basis. Barely below elite production for Cooks, and Hilton gets it a couple times a year usually but more inconsistent, and with the added weapons there, I think that takes a nose dive rather than staying up near that category.
Thanks for the response, but I think Cooks is pretty safe in his target load. I don't see any major changes to the Rams in the coming years, so I don't see why his targets would vary to any significant degree. As for "single handedly winning a week"... if the two players are putting up the same points on the year and one guy is sometimes having huge weeks, that means he's also disappearing some weeks. I'm not a consistency guy (or a boom/bust guy) as I feel like with a large enough lineup things will somewhat even out, so I'm not going to ding Hilton for boom/bust games when comparing him to Cooks (although I haven't done the research to see how true this is) but I'm also not going to ding Cooks for not having a single massive week this season. In the end, they are similar players in stable situations and similar stat lines. The only difference to me is age (4 yrs), which is pretty significant in terms of dynasty. If you were only going to move one guy, I'd move Hilton down rather than Cooks up.
That his big weeks are bigger than Cooks' big weeks yes. That and I think his targets are more secure than Cooks'.
Nice job. Thank you for the rankings.
Just wondering how far up we move Henry at this moment after his two crazy games. I know I’d rank him over almost everyone in tiers 4, 5, and 6. I may even take him over Michel, Jones, and even DJ. Of course these next couple games will matter for his spot next year, but I’m wondering how people feel about him now.
Just reactionary I'd move him up 2 spots. He still is a grinding RB who doesn't catch passes and in PPR I'll take my shot on those types of guys that I have in tier 5 or 4 before I take a shot on guys like Henry. There's always someone that shows up unexpectedly before playoffs, and those are more often than not overvalued going into next year. Not a guy I'd rank highly, no matter what he does to close out 2018 season.
Hell, I don't understand not putting Ertz and Kelce in the same tier. Ertz is a year younger than Kelce and doesn't have Kelce's microfracture surgery.
Vance McDonald just looks like he should be ranked that high when he is being used, but at the end of the day the guy just does not produce consistently. Whether it's because of something he's doing (or not doing) or just Big Ben's tendencies is hard to ascertain, but does it really matter? I guess one could argue that if Brown gets trade a ton of targets open up but I'm guessing those go to JJSS, Washington, Rogers and/or whoever they draft rather then McDonald.
I can by this but are they fluky? It's an Andrew Luck offense, he's the only big target and a high percentage of those TDs were plays specifically designed to go to him. I realize that it's tough to project 12 TDs for him again next year, but I think it's not all that unlikely he sees double digit TDs again.
Given that he's struggled with contested passes in the past, I think it's very possible this was a once off TD aberration. The other part is his snap split with and without Doyle. Doyle missed 10 games entirely and half of another game. In the 5 games Doyle was healthy Ebron only ranged from 22%-45% of the snaps. I feel confident projecting Doyle for more than 5.5 games played next year, which will hurt Ebron a lot. I also think the Colts will be stronger at WR2 and RB next season, but that's just speculation.
I thought about moving OJ Howard down a tier and just keeping Kittle by himsef in tier2 but I like OJ too much. I'm down on Ertz for multiple reasons. The main one is that he's more WR than TE, where I prefer my TE's to be good blockers as well (hence the OJ Howard ranking). I also think Goedert has shown fantastic in his limited role for his rookie year and think that will split more in the future. Ertz is still a top TE but I think the Tate signing was a clue as to wanting to limit his exposure a bit, same with the Goedert pick.
One offense seemed to use the TE more than the other, while OJ was way more efficient with his targets than Njoku was. Similar numbers this year overall, although OJ only played 10 games. They both continually impress me but I love me some OJ Howard and I only "like-like" me some Njoku.
Doyle is owed $5.15MM and all of his guarantees have been paid - they have a lot of cap space so he'll probably be back but not sure with Ebron doing so well. The snap count is concerning but targets mean more - and Ebron did well with his targets and I think that should earn him snaps.
Thanks for the rankings either way. I'm with you on the OJ Howard love. However, I'm not sure Kelce is that good of a blocker, but that's just an impression I have. If it is true then it's still weird that Kelce and Ertz have such a difference in tiers.
last 8 games of the season, we saw njoku see an avg of 4.6 targets per game, and avg receptions of 3.1 receptions per game. about 67% completion percentage.
Do you get points for blocking in your fantasy leagues? And before you (or some one) comes back with being able to block helps keep the TE on the field, I'm not sure that's a concern for a guy targeted 156 times - and how did adding Tate or Goedert limit him in anyway?
No points for blocking, but it does open up formation changes when protection is covered and the QB can give the TE a hot read instead of keeping him in-line. There's more opportunity for TE's when they block as well as catch. It's more a plus for guys that do both than a knock for some guys that don't, but it's what keeps me a little more leary of guys like Ertz who are mostly volume based. He's still TE4, not far off from what so many of you "want", I just prefer my TE's in that type of role unless they're beasts like Kelce. Ertz isn't in the same mold.
Definitely. I'd slot him in near the bottom of tier6 right now, but with the rookies coming in, they're probably going to be about the same rankings wise. I was never a big fan of his to begin with but I also think it's more than a 50/50 shot that somehow the Steelers work it out with AB and he returns.
