Zyphros' Rankings (Updated 2/11) (2 Viewers)

Gut reaction for the RB's at the combine

You can see all the questions I had for RB's in my other thread https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/783697-2020-nfl-combine-questions-i-have-for-rbs/

Winners - Jonathan Taylor obviously.  Looked good in drills and decent in pass catching.  I'm not convinced but it's a step in the right direction.  Cam Akers was a top RB choice of mine, he remains there with a very solid day.  Smooth and quick feet decisive and fast.  So excited for him with his ceiling possibly the highest of all RB's of 2020.  DeAndre Swift did the same as Akers basically.  Solid all around day and he looked big along with his speed.  That was really the only test for him, and he passed pretty easily.  I knew Anthony McFarland would run fast, and he did, proved he's worth late 1st round consideration in rookie drafts.  Might be the best value at RB of all of them.  AJ Dillon was a surprise at 247 pounds and a 97th percentile speed score and burst score, big riser.  I don't think he looked that good in drills, but I think it's just his lumbering size that I don't like.  Darrynton Evans was a sleeper for some, got some speed and looked really good in drills.  Might be my RB6 (along with 4 others I have to decide on).  Rico Dowdle also had a decent showing, not sure if I call him a winner or just overall improvement though.  He did answer my questions I had, could be something.  

Losers - J.K. Dobbins, purely because he didn't participate and the other's from the "big4" did and dominated.  Pro day needs to be something special. Benny LeMay was arguably the worst RB at the combine, really disappointed with that.  Zack Moss did awful in the 40, claims he had a hamstring pull in his vert before running, decided to continue on.  Still participated in drills too so I call complete BS.  He's just slow.  Salvon Ahmed who was suppose to possibly clock a sub 4.4 didn't even come close.  Weird results by him.  Not a whole lot of overall "losers" though.

Guys that just had a "meh" kind of day:  KeShawn Vaughn, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Lamical Perine, Darius Anderson, Eno Benjamin, Jamycal Hasty

Updated top20 rookies.  In parenthesis I put their overall dynasty ranking that I have them at.  

1. Jonathan Taylor (RB6) - I want to put Swift or Akers here, I think they're safer when it comes to pass catching.  Taylor is just consensus that I feel it's required to put him at 1.01.  He's guaranteed to get 200+ carries right away, super safe floor.  

2. DeAndre Swift (RB10) - Was my most talented RB at the beginning of this process.  Still highly regarded after good combine.  1.02 easy choice since he still carries the value.

3. Cam Akers (RB11) - Highest ceiling of all the RB's I think.  Full PPR is mostly what I play so this is kind of reflective of that.  Praying for a good landing spot.

4. CeeDee Lamb (WR6) - Pretty easy choice post-combine.  Checks every single box other than size, but I think he functions well at his size.  

5. JK Dobbins (RB15) - For now he's here, pro day might change that depending on workout numbers.  Just falling when others have been rising.

6. Jalen Reagor (WR13) - Made a case for my top WR but 40 time was slower than I thought, still aced the rest of the combine.  Super safe floor like an Emmanuel Sanders type.

7. Denzel Mims (WR18) - Slightly concerned of him as a senior WR but all he's done is pass every test and he was a personal favorite of mine early on.  Probably pretty high on him compared to most.

8. Jerry Jeudy (WR22) - Not a fan of this ranking but I can't deny how most people view him, plus draft capital likely says I can't keep him below some of the next few guys.  I'm definitely not taking him here and trading down a few picks if possible. 

9. Bryan Edwards (WR23) - Big fan of Edwards.  Broken foot was a bummer, he was saying pre-combine that he was about to run sub 4.5.  They all say that I know.  I honestly believe he'll be the best of the bunch long term.  Just hope the mental's are in check.  But that's with all of these guys, I think we underestimate how much it takes mentally to play in the NFL. 

10. Justin Jefferson (WR27) - Super producer, passed athleticism tests with flying colors, and snuck into 1st round consideration in NFL.  Draft capital will tell me how to put him.  If it's ~top50 he likely stays close to this.  

11. Tee Higgins (WR28) - Might have the highest ceiling among all WR's, bad athleticism does worry me along with some other things (mostly attitude), but he was a favorite and I really like the overall talent.  

12. Laviska Shenault (WR29) - Beast.  Biggest worry is health, and it just doesn't go away.  I think this ranking is enough to fade him, but I would be fine with having him too.  I love him.

13. Anthony McFarland (RB22) - Personal favorite, looked great at the combine, one of the biggest winners.  Slight worry about explosiveness (8th percentile burst score) though.  Probably a surprise to have him as a top5 RB in the class I imagine.  

14. Joe Burrow (QB7) - Looks like a Bengal right now, good weapons, bad o-line.  We'll see.  I don't do much QB analysis but he's consensus and have to drop him in somewhere.

15. Tua Tagovailoa (QB9) - Who knows where he'll end up.  Again just dropping him into rankings somewhere.

16. Henry Ruggs (WR43) - Not a fan at all.  Like Jeudy, I can't deny his value being here because his draft capital likely dictates it.  Again I'm trading out.  

17. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB24) - Pass catcher plus, great value here, probably also gone.  I'm perfectly fine not getting him.  I have my worries.  Burrow being the main reason he was so free to do what he did.  Failed speed test at the combine, size, due for a committee.  At best we see Devonta Freeman, not willing to spend highly for that. 

18. Gabriel Davis (WR47) - Good speed, good size, good athleticism.  Didn't look as smooth in drills as I'd like, personal favorite and all, but showed good speed and he's an instant big bodied deep threat.  Love those guys.  Hoping for my team to grab him in the 4th.  I'll grab him in the 2nd of rookie drafts.

19. Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR54) - Great athlete, low production.  Time to start taking shots on high upside guys.  Big winner from the combine, decent draft capital will keep him here.

20. Michael Pittman (WR60) - Exact same response as DPJ.  I worry about Pittman though as he didn't strike me as that kind of athlete when I watched him as DPJ did.  That was my tie breaker between them.

Half my leagues are full PPR, the other half are 2QB.  In 2QB I'd put Burrow and Tua at #2 and #3 probably.  

Zyphros said:

.  I don't do much QB analysis

the other half are 2QB.  In 2QB I'd put Burrow and Tua at #2 and #3 probably.  

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It's odd to see you not do QB analysis and play in 2QB leagues.

Definitely agree burrow and tua are top 3 in 2Qb leagues, or super flex. Where would you put love and Herbert in those formats? I currently have them both top 10, possibly top 6 but I might be overrating rookie QBs.

Zyphros said:

8. Jerry Jeudy (WR22) - Not a fan of this ranking but I can't deny how most people view him, plus draft capital likely says I can't keep him below some of the next few guys.  I'm definitely not taking him here and trading down a few picks if possible.

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He will have been drafted 3-5 picks ago when you are OTC at #8, so you won't have to worry about avoiding him here.

-OZ- said:

It's odd to see you not do QB analysis and play in 2QB leagues.

Definitely agree burrow and tua are top 3 in 2Qb leagues, or super flex. Where would you put love and Herbert in those formats? I currently have them both top 10, possibly top 6 but I might be overrating rookie QBs.

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I just trust others when it comes to QB's and TE's mostly.  This years TE's are just awful, and it's a good year that coincides with my new stance of not to ever draft a rookie TE ever again ha. 

Herbert, Love, and Hurts would be my #3 #4 and #5 QB's, and I'd slot them in near Jeudy.  Jeudy is the last guy there that seems to have high draft capital, I think it would depends on how Edwards/Jefferson/Higgins/Shenault get drafted in comparison to others.  They are all kind of unknown it draft capital projection right now.  Could be mid/late 1st, could be late 2nd.  So with Burrow and Tua at 2 and 3, that would end up being roughly 11-15 overall.  

tangfoot said:

He will have been drafted 3-5 picks ago when you are OTC at #8, so you won't have to worry about avoiding him here.

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Good.  I don't even want him this high but I can't ignore the type of prospect most people think he is, or the draft capital that is likely invested in him.  If I'm putting him after guys I actually like more, he'd be #14.  

Zyphros said:

I just trust others when it comes to QB's and TE's mostly.  This years TE's are just awful, and it's a good year that coincides with my new stance of not to ever draft a rookie TE ever again ha. 

Herbert, Love, and Hurts would be my #3 #4 and #5 QB's, and I'd slot them in near Jeudy.  

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It's funny, I actually really liked hurts in Alabama but he's pretty low, probably equal to Fromm and Eason, on my list. 

I tend to avoid TEs, ever since I drafted everett and Shaheen. 

Can you elaborate on your concerns about Bryan Edwards mental issues ? From all I've heard his intangibles are stellar, this is first I'm hearing otherwise.

Been reading but failed to

Dawg Pound 69 said:

Can you elaborate on your concerns about Bryan Edwards mental issues ? From all I've heard his intangibles are stellar, this is first I'm hearing otherwise.

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Not worried about mental issues with him.  Just pointing out that good producers sometimes fail to live up to expectations due to whatever mental block in an athletes brain.  Some get over it, some don't, it's the nature of sports.  The great ones find a way and are mentally tough.  Just not sure about that with any of these players felt like it needed to be said, put it on Edwards' little line there that's all.  It's really impossible as fans to kind of get a read on that sort of thing.  

I am slightly concerned about Higgins with that.  

Updating my rankings a little before the draft just some slight movements.  The more I look at them though, the more questions I see, could be over analyzing a bit or maybe I'm just being more cautious in their overall dynasty rankings.  Anyways figured I'd throw an update since it's draft week and it's been over a month.  This would be the board I draft from if I were drafting in 1QB and 1PPR leagues.  Each set is a tier break.  

(1) DeAndre Swift, (2) Cam Akers, (3) CeeDee Lamb, (4) JK Dobbins, (5) Jonathan Taylor 

(6) Jalen Reagor, (7) Justin Jefferson, (8) Jerry Jeudy - I don't think these 3 deserve to be top8 picks.  I'd rather trade down to between 9-16 (maybe get 2 of those) and get 2 of whoever slips.  I really like Reagor and Jefferson but the value doesn't seem right to me that they deserve to be this high.  I'd rather have multiple shots of a few guys who are "lesser" prospects.  

(9) Denzel Mims, (10) Bryan Edwards (11) Clyde Edwards-Helaire

(12) Tee Higgins, (13) Laviska Shenault, (14) Michael Pittman, (15) Antonio Gibson, (16) Henry Ruggs

(17) Joe Burrow (18) Anthony McFarland, (19) Jalen Hurts , (20) Darrynton Evans, (21) Gabriel Davis, (22) AJ Dillon

(23) Ke'Shawn Vaughn, (24) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (25) Zack Moss, (26) Donovan Peoples-Jones, (27) Tua Tagovailoa, (28) Eno Benjamin, (29) Lynn Bowden, (30) Brandon Aiyuk, (31) Tyler Johnson

(32) Joshua Kelley, (33) Jordan Love, (34) Darius Anderson, (35) Collin Johnson, (36) Justin Herbert, (37) Quintez Cephus, (38) Lamical Perine, (39) Adam Trautman, (40) Joe Reed

There's so few RB's after my top4 that I see being anything more than a role player.  In a way I hate this RB class because it could have been so much better and deeper.  If we had Etienne, Harris, Hubbard, Hill, Mitchell I'd like this RB class A LOT more.  The only RB's I might want are Gibson, Evans, and Anderson that's it.  Only 3 with a chance at more than a role player and even that's unlikely.  And because I know someone will ask, no CEH isn't part of that.  

As for the WR's, there's a lot of them that I could see becoming special.  But the floors are also rather low.  Basically all WR's 12 and later are that to me.  Just for comparisons sake, Bowden who is my WR14 would have been a top10 WR in both 2019 and 2018 in my process.  

My favorite late round pick would be Collin Johnson or Darius Anderson.  They're solid enough for a role (maybe) and the ceilings are massive.  

Names that didn't make my top40

RB's - Mike Warren, Brian Herrien, Benny LeMay, JaMycal Hasty, Salvon Ahmed, Javon leake - Favorite of this bunch is Mike Warren

WR's - Jared Pinkney, Isaiah Hodgins, Dezmon Patmon, John Hightower, Kalija Lipscomb, Freddie Swain, Quez Watkins, Darnell Mooney, Jeff Thomas, Isaiah Wright - Favorite of this bunch is Isaiah Wright

Zyphros said:

(1) DeAndre Swift, (2) Cam Akers, (3) CeeDee Lamb, (4) JK Dobbins, (5) Jonathan Taylor 

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I'm kind of shocked by the Taylor ranking after he was previously #1 for you just a few posts up.

Why the drop off?

ty247 said:

I'm kind of shocked by the Taylor ranking after he was previously #1 for you just a few posts up.

Why the drop off?

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Full PPR is the main reason.  As I mentioned in that post your referencing, I wanted to put Swift and Akers there.  I went back through some of my notes and previous rankings where I had Swift, Dobbins and Akers as better overall talents than Taylor initially, then I kind of fell into the Taylor hype the fantasy community was drawing up.  I'm trusting my first reaction with this.  

Also, now I'm hearing the NFL doesn't believe in Taylor as much as the fantasy community does.  But that's of very minor importance to me as long as he still gets ~top75 draft capital which I think won't be a problem.  

First reaction top20 for PPR:

Jonathan Taylor - Colts (41) - Great landing spot, will easily be able to grind yards out with that o-line.  Wish he was a better pass catcher but the landing spot is premium for RB's.  He gets the edge.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Chiefs (32) - PPR monster coming in, again great landing spot easy 1.02.  Kind of polar opposite to Taylor.  Both safe floors, ~12-18 touches a game can easily produce top12 RB numbers on that with that offense.  

Cam Akers - Rams (52) - Good spot, vacated targets from Gurley and Cooks, lots of opportunity.  As long as he beats out Henderson but the draft capital says he'll have first rights to do that.  Big fan of his talent so he's my #3.  Not the best landing spot in terms of overall o-line and offense though.  He'll maintain value rather easily, unless Henderson beats him out and becomes a workhorse.  Even then, Akers will likely be involved a little.  

JK Dobbins - Ravens (55) - Ingram still there sure, but he'll be 31 soon enough.  Dobbins is their future RB as of now.  Plus he'll get opportunity as a rookie.  He'll either maintain value or shoot up in value after his rookie year.  There is no going down unless he screws the pooch.  

DeAndre Swift - Lions (35) - Kerryon who?  It's likely a committee of some kind, I just hope Swift takes advantage of it with every touch and gains trust from coaches unlike Kerryon has done.  He's a steal in rookie drafts at 1.05 though.  Again it's hard to see him losing any value after year 1. 

Jalen Reagor - Eagles (21) - Great spot for all 3 levels of catches.  Hope he can handle a CB1 and not get shut out, but he's due for immediate playing time, production, and hope.  

Justin Jefferson - Vikings (22) - Who's the slot?  Him or Thielen?  Either way another WR due for immediate playing time and hopefully he shows out.  Instant impact means instant value.  

Tee Higgins - Bengals (33) - WR1 to grow with Burrow after Green leaves.  Love the situation for him to grow and contribute (although much less than Reagor/Jefferson) right away.  Long term play.  He gets the edge over Lamb because it's year2 he'll make the leap to #1.  

CeeDee Lamb - Cowboys (17) - Awesome player, but 2 years away from being the breakout guy.  I don't see him beating Cooper for #1, nor Gallup for #2 right away.  Maybe #2 after year1.  The rich get richer here, he's a great long term buy at this price.  I see him as a year 3 impact fantasy guy purely because situation.  I do think the talent will surface rather early though.  Higgins/Lamb are interchangable for me here honestly.  I just see Higgins as a little more immediate.  

Denzel Mims - Jets (59) - Future #1.  I don't think he'll play immediately, maybe tail end of the season before he lets his presence be known.  The real hype will be when Gase is gone after this year.  Everyone assumes that I think right?  Might be able to get him cheaper after year1.

Laviska Shenault - Jaguars (42) - Great landing spot, not sold on the QB but I liked the talent more than my next player so Shenault goes first.  Compliments Chark really well and fits that offense great.  Love the spot.  Love the player.  

Bryan Edwards - Raiders (81) - No competition for his role on offense.  Future #1 just hope the QB is not so bad.  I like Carr but he's questionable at best.  Long term situation looks a bit murky.  

Henry Ruggs III - Raiders (12) - Immediate impact player.  Better for the overall offense than fantasy though.  Same concerns as Edwards but less volume, PPR it matters.  

Jerry Jeudy - Broncos - (15) - Never really liked the talent, and the situation is "meh".  Sutton is the #1, Fant and Gordon are going to be key cogs.  What's left over for Jeudy with a questionable QB?  If Lock pans out this is great value, I have plenty of doubts though.  Likely just ranking him way out of range so I don't get him.  

Antonio Gibson - Washington (66) - I struggle to see where he fits in but the upside is huge.  If he can compete with that crazy deep RB group, he gets immediate touches.  Maybe he's the slot right away or 2 RB sets or something?  Rivera said he's very similar to McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel so he's going to be used all over.  If Guice isn't the answer Gibson is.  I still like Guice a lot though.  If I didn't Gibson would be 2 spots higher.  

Ke'Shawn Vaughn - Buccaneers (76) - Competition for Ronald Jones right away, might just be a complete 50/50 time share or whoever wins gets 60%.  I don't think it'll be enough for fantasy relevance more than bye week filler/RB3 territory though.  I favor Ronald Jones.  Vaughn might be the long term play.

Darrynton Evans - Titans (93) - Fits great as a compliment to Henry.  Henry is on a 1 year tender and UFA in 2021 so this is a year away play.  Could have a boom in value if he shows decent as a rookie.  Same with Gibson and Vaughn so they're kind of grouped together.

Brandon Aiyuk - 49er's (25) - Another guy I'm not a fan of.  It's funny that Shanahan compared Aiyuk to Pettis when both are not good.  I think Aiyuk has a chance to surprise me since my grade was WAY off what the NFL deemed him.  Sleeper rookie WR1?  Possibly.  

Michael Pittman - Colts (34) - Not a fan, probably low ranking of him compared to consensus.  Someone else can make that mistake.  I'm quite convinced Pittman is not very good.  Been wrong before, whatever.

Lynn Bowden Jr. - Raiders (81) - I don't know where he fits in that offense.  Does he actually replace Renfrow, I doubt it because Gruden loves him, so does Carr.  Hard for me to see a role for Bowden right away but I like the talent enough.  Super dynamic player.  Kind of a poor mans Reagor.  All of that paired with Raiders questions as a team, he finished my top20.  

Well that took a long time to type up so hopefully some people find it useful.  Tell me why I'm wrong.  

Nice write up. 
 

Why did you have Swift 1 and Taylor 5 before the draft and now you’ve switched them despite similar draft capital to teams with replacement rb 2s.

I think you’re wrong on Jeudy and Pittman, but I’m not going to convince you otherwise. 
 

Dillon needs to be top 20 probably. 

IHEARTFF said:

Nice write up. 
 

Why did you have Swift 1 and Taylor 5 before the draft and now you’ve switched them despite similar draft capital to teams with replacement rb 2s.

I think you’re wrong on Jeudy and Pittman, but I’m not going to convince you otherwise. 
 

Dillon needs to be top 20 probably. 

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Situation matters more for RB's than draft capital especially if picked close to each other.  Taylor and CEH in 2 of the best spots a RB can ask for.  Swift, although is a better talent to me, still has to compete with Kerryon (although I don't see that as a problem), and he's in an offense that will unlikely use him to his full potential.  I have no faith in Patricia for that.  

You definitely can't convince me out of Jeudy and Pittman but appreciate the comment.  

Dillon in PPR is not a guy I'd want at all.  Even with Aaron Jones on his last year of his contract.  

The WR pre-draft rankings coupled with their landing spots leave me lukewarm about all of them as potential top-5 PPR Rookie Dynasty picks. I'd thought Jeudy and Lamb were Top 5 picks, but now I'm going with RBs 1-5.

I also think they're very close. Remember that Swift/Taylor were clearly consensus 1/2 before the draft, and CEH seemingly has the best situation now.

PPR:

CEH - Great landing spot, but probably not a workhorse
Taylor - 1st/2nd down plus GL behind a great OL
Dobbins - Possibly highest long-term ceiling?
Swift - Love the talent, but for me, the worst situation

Akers - Least sure about his talent and situation, high ceiling but lowest floor

Looking through this thread and some of my past rankings, there's some that really stand out.  Lamar Jackson as a rookie I didn't believe in.  Andrew Luck with the surprise retirement, Cam Newton with the surprise cut just 2 years after I had both top5.  That's just from the QB rankings I had in November of 2018.  Lots of good past conversations in here that it looks like I was justified by the way I ranked some guys.  A couple conversations that turned my head around and re-thought it to improve.  Think I made some really good calls, some not so good.  Either way things change so very quickly.  Looking forward to some thoughts on my rankings.  

Dynasty rankings time.  I heavily favor youth in startups and prefer to go that route because I see them maintain value or increase in value more often than middle/older aged players.  I bet some of these will be a little controversial for that exact reason.  I look for longevity more than I do "elite" production.  A combination of both would be ideal.  I don't like depreciating assets in startups.  I'm either picking young almost studs, trading down to do that, or taking shots on high upside young guys.  This doesn't mean I would trade WR9 for just WR4 for example.  But if you can get more and add to it, I would highly suggest it.  Really only works with higher players though since they carry the "name value" and helped "win you you're championship".  This also puts aged vets who are still productive lower on the board than their actual production.  Again I wouldn't want them in a startup because trading them for value is usually much harder and it's very league dependent.  

I'll start with WR's and post the others as I go.  I respect the hell out of rankers because it takes a lot of time to get something you're happy with.  Hope you enjoy mine.  

Tier 1 - (1) Chris Godwin, (2) Tyreek Hill DND, (3) DJ Moore

Tier 2 - (4) DK Metcalf, (5) Courtland Sutton, (6) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (7) AJ Brown, (8) Davante Adams, (9) DeAndre Hopkins, (10) Michael Thomas, (11) Kenny Golladay, (12) Amari Cooper, (13) Mike Evans, (14) Jalen Reagor

Tier 3 - (15) Odell Beckham, (16) Allen Robinson, (17) Cooper Kupp, (18) Deebo Samuel, (19) DJ Chark, (20) Calvin Ridley, (21) Justin Jefferson, (22) CeeDee Lamb, (23) Terry McLaurin, (24) Tyler Lockett, (25) Michael Gallup, (26) Tee Higgins, (27) Keenan Allen DND, (28) Brandin Cooks DND, (29) Adam Thielen DND, (30) Julio Jones DND

Tier 4 - (31) N'Keal Harry, (32) Denzel Mims, (33) Preston Williams, (34) Laviska Shenault, (35) Robert Woods DND, (36) Darius Slayton, (37) Stefon Diggs DND, (38) Bryan Edwards, (39) Henry Ruggs, (40) Christian Kirk, (41) Jerry Jeudy, (42) Devante Parker, (43) Jarvis Landry DND, (44) TY Hilton DND, (45) AJ Green DND, (46) Tyler Boyd DND, (47) Marquise Brown, (48) Corey Davis, (49) Brandin Aiyuk, (50) Marvin Jones DND

Tier 5 - (51) Sterling Shepard, (52) Curtis Samuel, (53) Diontae Johnson, (54) Mike Williams DND, (55) Jalen Hurd, (56) Michael Pittman, (57) Mecole Hardman, (58) Parris Campbell, (59) Kelvin Harmon, (60) Allen Lazard, (61) Robby Anderson DND, (62) Jamison Crowder DND, (63) Hunter Renfrow, (64) Will Fuller DND, (65) Lynn Bowden, (66) Breshad Perriman DND, (67) Julian Edelman DND, (68) Myles Boykin, (69) John Brown DND

Tier 6 - (70) Anthony Miller, (71) Randall Cobb, (72) JJ Arcega-Whiteside, (73) Golden Tate DND, (74) Andy Isabella, (75) Emmanuel Sanders DND, (76) Sammy Watkins DND, (77) Gabriel Davis, (78) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (79) Tyler Johnson, (80) Donovan Peoples-Jones

I'm going to stop it there, everyone else is either a 4th round rookie or worse.  This should cover plenty of depth with most noticeable names. 

The biggest surprises are probably Metcalf, Sutton and Brown at 4, 5, and 6 respectively.  They don't deserve that ranking yet, but it's not exactly outlandish considering their first years in the league to be considered there.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if they're up there after 1 more year like they did in 2019.  At worst they'll go down to ~15 if they underwhelm and maintain decent value of a 1st to cash out.  Similar to JuJu this past year.  Plus everyone is pretty high on them so the price is probably pretty close to this.  It's aggressive for sure, but it doesn't seem crazy.  At least not to me.  Adams/Hopkins/MT/Evans/OBJ/Arob/Kupp/Keenan all hold high value and are all 27+ so I imagine I'm low on them.  

In that same vein, I wanted to put Deebo/Chark/Ridley ahead of Odell/Arob/Kupp but I don't think their ceilings are high enough to surpass them.  So in Tier2 it there's 3 young WR's that get boosted because of their ceilings, in Tier3 there's 3 young WR's that don't get that benefit because of their limitations.  

Those seem all over the place, if I'm being totally honest.

Some really good veterans who are still in their prime like Beckham and Diggs seem disrespected here.

Reagor that far above Jeudy, Aiyuk, and Ruggs is certainly a bold call.

I'm not a Higgins believer, so that one also sticks out to me.

Thanks for posting and respect your process for valuing youth in these. On that note, why you are so low on (47) Marquise Brown, (53) Diontae Johnson as well as (56) Michael Pittman? The first 2 showed me enough as rookies to value them highly. I see Pittman as very similar to your #5 WR Sutton. For example I would have all 3 in that tier 3 at worst.

I’m also leaning towards Reagor as my WR1 in this class. I’m not sure I have seen anyone else as high on him as you and I. 

I think you’d like my dynasty team. I have all three of your top tier WRs.

I am rolling in Tier 6 guys. Bravo to me!

Naw, thanks for doing your rankings. I always appreciate the time and energy.

EBF said:

Those seem all over the place, if I'm being totally honest.

Some really good veterans who are still in their prime like Beckham and Diggs seem disrespected here.

Reagor that far above Jeudy, Aiyuk, and Ruggs is certainly a bold call.

I'm not a Higgins believer, so that one also sticks out to me.

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With Beckham, I need to see him be elite again.  But even if he is, he doesn't vault back up to top5.  He's slightly older than Adams and MT.  He's a worse version of Amari in terms of fantasy points, in a worse situation, and he's 28 for this season.  

Diggs is just in an awful situation but he'll get peppered with targets very likely.  Might be a bit undervalued here I'll admit.  I typically fade WR's on new teams for year 1.  Decided to put a few rookies ahead that I really like.  And I know you disagree with all of them (Higgins, Mims, Shenault).  

Zyphros said:

Looking through this thread and some of my past rankings, there's some that really stand out.  Lamar Jackson as a rookie I didn't believe in.  Andrew Luck with the surprise retirement, Cam Newton with the surprise cut just 2 years after I had both top5.  That's just from the QB rankings I had in November of 2018.  Lots of good past conversations in here that it looks like I was justified by the way I ranked some guys.  A couple conversations that turned my head around and re-thought it to improve.  Think I made some really good calls, some not so good.  Either way things change so very quickly.  Looking forward to some thoughts on my rankings.  

Dynasty rankings time.  I heavily favor youth in startups and prefer to go that route because I see them maintain value or increase in value more often than middle/older aged players.  I bet some of these will be a little controversial for that exact reason.  I look for longevity more than I do "elite" production.  A combination of both would be ideal.  I don't like depreciating assets in startups.  I'm either picking young almost studs, trading down to do that, or taking shots on high upside young guys.  This doesn't mean I would trade WR9 for just WR4 for example.  But if you can get more and add to it, I would highly suggest it.  Really only works with higher players though since they carry the "name value" and helped "win you you're championship".  This also puts aged vets who are still productive lower on the board than their actual production.  Again I wouldn't want them in a startup because trading them for value is usually much harder and it's very league dependent.  

I'll start with WR's and post the others as I go.  I respect the hell out of rankers because it takes a lot of time to get something you're happy with.  Hope you enjoy mine.  

Tier 1 - (1) Chris Godwin, (2) Tyreek Hill DND, (3) DJ Moore

Tier 2 - (4) DK Metcalf, (5) Courtland Sutton, (6) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (7) AJ Brown, (8) Davante Adams, (9) DeAndre Hopkins, (10) Michael Thomas, (11) Kenny Golladay, (12) Amari Cooper, (13) Mike Evans, (14) Jalen Reagor

Tier 3 - (15) Odell Beckham, (16) Allen Robinson, (17) Cooper Kupp, (18) Deebo Samuel, (19) DJ Chark, (20) Calvin Ridley, (21) Justin Jefferson, (22) CeeDee Lamb, (23) Terry McLaurin, (24) Tyler Lockett, (25) Michael Gallup, (26) Tee Higgins, (27) Keenan Allen DND, (28) Brandin Cooks DND, (29) Adam Thielen DND, (30) Julio Jones DND

Tier 4 - (31) N'Keal Harry, (32) Denzel Mims, (33) Preston Williams, (34) Laviska Shenault, (35) Robert Woods DND, (36) Darius Slayton, (37) Stefon Diggs DND, (38) Bryan Edwards, (39) Henry Ruggs, (40) Christian Kirk, (41) Jerry Jeudy, (42) Devante Parker, (43) Jarvis Landry DND, (44) TY Hilton DND, (45) AJ Green DND, (46) Tyler Boyd DND, (47) Marquise Brown, (48) Corey Davis, (49) Brandin Aiyuk, (50) Marvin Jones DND

Tier 5 - (51) Sterling Shepard, (52) Curtis Samuel, (53) Diontae Johnson, (54) Mike Williams DND, (55) Jalen Hurd, (56) Michael Pittman, (57) Mecole Hardman, (58) Parris Campbell, (59) Kelvin Harmon, (60) Allen Lazard, (61) Robby Anderson DND, (62) Jamison Crowder DND, (63) Hunter Renfrow, (64) Will Fuller DND, (65) Lynn Bowden, (66) Breshad Perriman DND, (67) Julian Edelman DND, (68) Myles Boykin, (69) John Brown DND

Tier 6 - (70) Anthony Miller, (71) Randall Cobb, (72) JJ Arcega-Whiteside, (73) Golden Tate DND, (74) Andy Isabella, (75) Emmanuel Sanders DND, (76) Sammy Watkins DND, (77) Gabriel Davis, (78) Antonio Gandy-Golden, (79) Tyler Johnson, (80) Donovan Peoples-Jones

I'm going to stop it there, everyone else is either a 4th round rookie or worse.  This should cover plenty of depth with most noticeable names. 

The biggest surprises are probably Metcalf, Sutton and Brown at 4, 5, and 6 respectively.  They don't deserve that ranking yet, but it's not exactly outlandish considering their first years in the league to be considered there.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if they're up there after 1 more year like they did in 2019.  At worst they'll go down to ~15 if they underwhelm and maintain decent value of a 1st to cash out.  Similar to JuJu this past year.  Plus everyone is pretty high on them so the price is probably pretty close to this.  It's aggressive for sure, but it doesn't seem crazy.  At least not to me.  Adams/Hopkins/MT/Evans/OBJ/Arob/Kupp/Keenan all hold high value and are all 27+ so I imagine I'm low on them.  

In that same vein, I wanted to put Deebo/Chark/Ridley ahead of Odell/Arob/Kupp but I don't think their ceilings are high enough to surpass them.  So in Tier2 it there's 3 young WR's that get boosted because of their ceilings, in Tier3 there's 3 young WR's that don't get that benefit because of their limitations.  

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The one WR I differ the most and am most confident about is Diontae Johnson. Way to low imo but that's what makes this game fun. You could almost switch JuJu and Diontae imo. 

Don't like Higgins either but I like my WR to have more under the hood so to speak. 

Awesome work though. Love how you go out on a limb on guys when you like them. 

Zyphros said:

With Beckham, I need to see him be elite again.  But even if he is, he doesn't vault back up to top5.  He's slightly older than Adams and MT.  He's a worse version of Amari in terms of fantasy points, in a worse situation, and he's 28 for this season.  

Diggs is just in an awful situation but he'll get peppered with targets very likely.  Might be a bit undervalued here I'll admit.  I typically fade WR's on new teams for year 1.  Decided to put a few rookies ahead that I really like.  And I know you disagree with all of them (Higgins, Mims, Shenault).  

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They're your rankings and you're allowed to put whoever you want wherever you want, but my 2 cents:

It feels like you are overrating the shiny new toys and underrating some of the proven stalwarts. Diggs and Beckham are big talents on big contracts because of what they have already shown they can do. There have been some bumps in the road, but it's really rare to find that Julio/Fitz/Andre type of career where a guy banks huge seasons year after year for the better part of a decade. Very few players ever hit that level. There may only be a handful in the league at any given time. Diggs and Beckham are closer to that level than most of the rookie WR class are ever likely to be. So in all likelihood, 3-4 years of prime Diggs or OBJ are going to be worth more than the entire career of someone like Jeudy or Ruggs.

My feeling with dynasty rankings is that a good young player > a good old player > a mediocre young player. Longevity has value, but it's also possible to put so much emphasis on future yield that you overvalue marginal talents based on youth and undervalue old players based on the expiration date. I like to make bullish bets on elite prospects in dynasty drafts, but to take a young guy over an old guy, I have to believe that his ability level is in the same ballpark. Otherwise the age doesn't really matter. How many "next big things" have come and gone since Larry Fitzgerald turned 30?

In a similar vein, Lamb, Higgins, and Jefferson probably aren't going to turn out to be as good as someone like Diggs, so I'd probably be inclined to take the bird-in-hand instead of the roulette spin at maybe-Michael Thomas-but-maybe-Laquon Treadwell. I don't find these rookie WRs so impressive that I'm passing on an established contributor in the prime of his career. In all likelihood, time will reveal those players to have warts that are far worse than the nitpicks I'd have with Diggs.

IHEARTFF said:

Thanks for posting and respect your process for valuing youth in these. On that note, why you are so low on (47) Marquise Brown, (53) Diontae Johnson as well as (56) Michael Pittman? The first 2 showed me enough as rookies to value them highly. I see Pittman as very similar to your #5 WR Sutton. For example I would have all 3 in that tier 3 at worst.

I’m also leaning towards Reagor as my WR1 in this class. I’m not sure I have seen anyone else as high on him as you and I. 

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These are based on PPR so Brown is naturally lower, I think Ruggs is a better version of him, in a better offense for points and likely used more heavily than in the run first offense of the Ravens.  I don't like Brown as anything more than a temporary deep threat with very little volume to keep his value afloat in PPR leagues.  He's a best ball receiver, not a long term dynasty asset unless he turns into DeSean Jackson.  Which he isn't.  

Diontae is kind of the reverse of that, he could see massive volume.  He took a big step forward as a rookie and basically supplanted James Washington.  I think the ceiling is rather limited or he could break through.  There's a ton of risk, lots of upside as well.  Probably should swap those 2 in their ranking. 

As for Pittman, I'm sure I've said it somewhere either in this thread with my rookie thoughts or elsewhere, I don't believe he's good.  He's a jump ball guy, that's it.  I don't get the hype on Pittman on why he's considered a WR when Claypool is considered a TE by most.  I will admit Pittman looks better on tape than Claypool, but the athleticism is very similar from an analytical standpoint.  Plainly simple, I don't think he's a good WR.  His opportunity is there and the upside is as well so I could easily be wrong here.  And I think we'll know a little quicker than some of these other prospects.  

Let's look at the RB's shall we?  Again favor the youth, downgraded the older vets not signed long term.  Only exception is Mixon because I believe he'll be there long term and a huge jump in that offense.  Downgraded non-pass catching RB's.  Always based on PPR.  

Tier 1 - (1) Christian McCaffrey, (2) Saquon Barkley

Tier 2 - (3) Miles Sanders, (4) Ezekiel Elliott, (5) Joe Mixon, (6) Josh Jacobs, (7) Jonathan Taylor, (8) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (9) Alvin Kamara, (10) Dalvin Cook, (11) Cam Akers, (12) JK Dobbins, (13) Aaron Jones, (14) DeAndre Swift, (15) Nick Chubb

Tier 3 - (16) Austin Ekeler, (17) Leonard Fournette DND, (18) Kenyan Drake DND, (19) Derrick Henry DND, (20) Derrius Guice, (21) Kareem Hunt, (22) Todd Gurley DND

Tier 4 - (23) Devin Singletary, (24) Ke'Shawn Vaughn, (25) Le'Veon Bell DND, (26) David Montgomery, (27) Melvin Gordon DND, (28) Ronald Jones, (29) Kerryon Johnson, (30) Marlon Mack, (31) David Johnson DND, (32) Zack Moss, (33) Chris Carson DND, (34) James Conner DND, (35) Mark Ingram DND

Tier 5 - (36) Tony Pollard, (37) Raheem Mostert DND, (38) Darrynton Evans, (39) Damien Williams DND, (40) Matt Breida, (41) Damien Harris, (42) Phillip Lindsay, (43) Justice Hill, (44) Antonio Gibson, (45) Tarik Cohen, (46) Anthony McFarland, (47) Rashaad Penny

Tier 6 - (48) Chase Edmonds, (49) James White DND, (50) Royce Freeman, (51) AJ Dillon, (52) Benny Snell, (53) Tevin Coleman DND, (54) Joshua Kelley, (55) Jaylen Samuels, (56) Alexander Mattison, (57) Duke Johnson, (58) DeeJay Dallas, (59) Nyheim Hines DND, (60) Jerrick McKinnon DND, (61) Sony Michel, (62) Eno Benjamin 

Overall I feel like I say this every year but the RB landscape kind of sucks.  There's clearly the top2, then there's clearly 4 more that have been in the league I'd feel comfortable with (Zeke, Mixon, Kamara, Cook).  2 more that I'd be buying as young somewhat proven players (Sanders, Jacobs).  That basically is a top8 of security and longevity of value.  And even for some of them it's possible they might not have it very long (Kamara, Cook, Zeke, Mixon).  Then it's basically all rookies.  I hope these top5 rookie RB's hit and become something to overhaul the RB group, but I find it pretty thin in terms of longevity for value.  

For startup purposes, I'm considering the top 8 as 1st rounders, but it might be possible to land Sanders or Jacobs in the mid/late 2nd when people still want the Kamara's/Cook's.  At least that's my hope.  

The reason I'm posting all these now is because I'm in a startup pretty soon, wanted a few opinions and it helps me overall see where gaps might be for trade down scenario's.  I try my best not to draft anyone over 26 years old at the RB position, trade down where I can and gain future picks.  Not exactly a punt year 1 but keep things as young as possible to keep my window open for the future and fill holes in year2.  Keep it young, get a few foundation pieces, get a few decent picks the 2nd year and go from there.  

Zyphros said:

Tier 2 - (3) Miles Sanders, (4) Ezekiel Elliott, (5) Joe Mixon, (6) Josh Jacobs, (7) Jonathan Taylor, (8) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (9) Alvin Kamara, (10) Dalvin Cook, (11) Cam Akers, (12) JK Dobbins, (13) Aaron Jones, (14) DeAndre Swift, (15) Nick Chubb

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Again, feels like you are overrating shiny new toys compared with guys who have already proven they can hack it in the NFL. 5 rookies in your top 15 NFL RBs.

Akers, Dobbins, and Swift ahead of Chubb is wild. Any of those three guys in the same tier as Chubb and Mixon is wild. Mixon is vastly more talented.

I don't really think the names in your top 10-11 are off, but I would bump Chubb up into that group and draw a big line between that tier and the next group.

You'd have to add massive value to Akers/Dobbins/Jones/Swift to get me to part with Chubb or Mixon. That's a non-starter offer for me.

Similarly, Henry is 26 and coming off a massive year. I get why he isn't dynasty gold, but even if he's a 1-2 year rental, 1-2 good years is statistically more than you are likely to get from a second tier rookie prospect. The fail rate on 2nd-3rd round NFL draft picks like Dobbins and Akers is north of 50% and very few of the guys who hit are going to yield 3-4+ good years. You'll be lucky to get a Ryan Mathews or Doug Martin type of career where they have a couple strong seasons sprinkled in.

Seems like strong criticism, but basically I'm just saying that most of those second tier rookies belong in the third tier. They are closer to people like Drake and Henry in value than they are to the likes of Mixon and Chubb, IMO. High longevity potential, but also very high bust potential.

I'm a little higher on Edmonds and Mattison. I like Damien Harris as a cheap throw-in if you can find a frustrated owner.

Zyphros said:

Let's look at the RB's shall we?  Again favor the youth, downgraded the older vets not signed long term.  Only exception is Mixon because I believe he'll be there long term and a huge jump in that offense.  Downgraded non-pass catching RB's.  Always based on PPR.  

Tier 1 - (1) Christian McCaffrey, (2) Saquon Barkley

Tier 2 - (3) Miles Sanders, (4) Ezekiel Elliott, (5) Joe Mixon, (6) Josh Jacobs, (7) Jonathan Taylor, (8) Clyde Edwards-Helaire, (9) Alvin Kamara, (10) Dalvin Cook, (11) Cam Akers, (12) JK Dobbins, (13) Aaron Jones, (14) DeAndre Swift, (15) Nick Chubb

Tier 3 - (16) Austin Ekeler, (17) Leonard Fournette DND, (18) Kenyan Drake DND, (19) Derrick Henry DND, (20) Derrius Guice, (21) Kareem Hunt, (22) Todd Gurley DND

Tier 4 - (23) Devin Singletary, (24) Ke'Shawn Vaughn, (25) Le'Veon Bell DND, (26) David Montgomery, (27) Melvin Gordon DND, (28) Ronald Jones, (29) Kerryon Johnson, (30) Marlon Mack, (31) David Johnson DND, (32) Zack Moss, (33) Chris Carson DND, (34) James Conner DND, (35) Mark Ingram DND

Tier 5 - (36) Tony Pollard, (37) Raheem Mostert DND, (38) Darrynton Evans, (39) Damien Williams DND, (40) Matt Breida, (41) Damien Harris, (42) Phillip Lindsay, (43) Justice Hill, (44) Antonio Gibson, (45) Tarik Cohen, (46) Anthony McFarland, (47) Rashaad Penny

Tier 6 - (48) Chase Edmonds, (49) James White DND, (50) Royce Freeman, (51) AJ Dillon, (52) Benny Snell, (53) Tevin Coleman DND, (54) Joshua Kelley, (55) Jaylen Samuels, (56) Alexander Mattison, (57) Duke Johnson, (58) DeeJay Dallas, (59) Nyheim Hines DND, (60) Jerrick McKinnon DND, (61) Sony Michel, (62) Eno Benjamin 

Overall I feel like I say this every year but the RB landscape kind of sucks.  There's clearly the top2, then there's clearly 4 more that have been in the league I'd feel comfortable with (Zeke, Mixon, Kamara, Cook).  2 more that I'd be buying as young somewhat proven players (Sanders, Jacobs).  That basically is a top8 of security and longevity of value.  And even for some of them it's possible they might not have it very long (Kamara, Cook, Zeke, Mixon).  Then it's basically all rookies.  I hope these top5 rookie RB's hit and become something to overhaul the RB group, but I find it pretty thin in terms of longevity for value.  

For startup purposes, I'm considering the top 8 as 1st rounders, but it might be possible to land Sanders or Jacobs in the mid/late 2nd when people still want the Kamara's/Cook's.  At least that's my hope.  

The reason I'm posting all these now is because I'm in a startup pretty soon, wanted a few opinions and it helps me overall see where gaps might be for trade down scenario's.  I try my best not to draft anyone over 26 years old at the RB position, trade down where I can and gain future picks.  Not exactly a punt year 1 but keep things as young as possible to keep my window open for the future and fill holes in year2.  Keep it young, get a few foundation pieces, get a few decent picks the 2nd year and go from there.  

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I can't wrap my head around King Henry only being one spot ahead of Guice, and behind Fournette and Drake.  Akers and Swift ahead of him too?  These guys can easily be in committees for the foreseeable future while Henry piles up another 1500+ yard rushing season.  I can understand having some trepidation about his long-term dynasty value and if he'll remain in Tennessee, but that seems extremely low.  

I like youth more than anyone in my leagues but I’d have a hard time taking Metcalf or Sutton over Michael Thomas. 

Zyphros said:

For startup purposes, I'm considering the top 8 as 1st rounders, but it might be possible to land Sanders or Jacobs in the mid/late 2nd when people still want the Kamara's/Cook's.  At least that's my hope.

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FWIW, I got Sanders at 3.02 a couple weeks back. 14th RB off the board. Jacobs went 2.03 (10th RB). 

fruity pebbles said:

I like youth more than anyone in my leagues but I’d have a hard time taking Metcalf or Sutton over Michael Thomas. 

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I would not trade him for both

here is the big thing. I look at guys who cal lead you to championships with those special seasons.

michael Thomas is that. I don’t think Sutton, JuJu or Metcalf can ever come close to that. 
that is Zek Elliott to Miles Sanders. Same thing

you are getting age and good players but really don’t think any of them can be Super special top 5 type seasons. 

EBF said:

Again, feels like you are overrating shiny new toys compared with guys who have already proven they can hack it in the NFL. 5 rookies in your top 15 NFL RBs.

Akers, Dobbins, and Swift ahead of Chubb is wild. Any of those three guys in the same tier as Chubb and Mixon is wild. Mixon is vastly more talented.

I don't really think the names in your top 10-11 are off, but I would bump Chubb up into that group and draw a big line between that tier and the next group.

You'd have to add massive value to Akers/Dobbins/Jones/Swift to get me to part with Chubb or Mixon. That's a non-starter offer for me.

Similarly, Henry is 26 and coming off a massive year. I get why he isn't dynasty gold, but even if he's a 1-2 year rental, 1-2 good years is statistically more than you are likely to get from a second tier rookie prospect. The fail rate on 2nd-3rd round NFL draft picks like Dobbins and Akers is north of 50% and very few of the guys who hit are going to yield 3-4+ good years. You'll be lucky to get a Ryan Mathews or Doug Martin type of career where they have a couple strong seasons sprinkled in.

Seems like strong criticism, but basically I'm just saying that most of those second tier rookies belong in the third tier. They are closer to people like Drake and Henry in value than they are to the likes of Mixon and Chubb, IMO. High longevity potential, but also very high bust potential.

I'm a little higher on Edmonds and Mattison. I like Damien Harris as a cheap throw-in if you can find a frustrated owner.

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You and I differ quite a bit on this class in general.  Plus it seems to me these comments would be suited towards a non-ppr league. 

As for Mixon I absolutely agree he is more talented, he's also on the Bengals with a new OC, new QB, and new offensive line.  Along with being unsigned doesn't inspire great long term confidence (at least until signed or Burrow/new OC are proven in some capacity).  Still like him quite a bit as the RB5 ranking suggests, but there is a downside there.  Add on the fact they haven't used him to his full talent yet I think the slightest bit of caution is warranted.  I did buy him in a few places already because I think he'll smash, but grouped with great rookie RB talent fits the bill.  He is better than all of them though.  

Akers/Dobbins/Swift are easy pass catching RB's to start their careers with the chance at more.  All of them ahead of Chubb, who is in a timeshare himself and not a special pass catcher, seems like a no-brainer for PPR.  

I would absolutely be taking the rookies over Henry or Chubb.  Chubb is the only that MIGHT have a case, but since I favor the youth/upside plays in startup's, it's a pretty easy decision for me.  

JoeJoe88 said:

I can't wrap my head around King Henry only being one spot ahead of Guice, and behind Fournette and Drake.  Akers and Swift ahead of him too?  These guys can easily be in committees for the foreseeable future while Henry piles up another 1500+ yard rushing season.  I can understand having some trepidation about his long-term dynasty value and if he'll remain in Tennessee, but that seems extremely low.  

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It's as simple as Henry doesn't catch passes, and the overall talent of the RB group falls off real quick.  Like I mentioned, I don't like the look of the RB landscape when it comes to young studs.  Henry had his career year, he isn't going to repeat.  1500yds+ and 16 TD's, I don't believe he'll come close to repeating.  Fournette was 40 points less than Henry last year (RB5 and RB7) and Fournette had 3 TD's.  Contract year for both.  I'm banking on regression from Henry and positive regression for Fournette (although his catches are likely to go down).  I don't buy players after career years unless they're other worldly.  Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley.  That's the list.  

Guice has all the talent, and what seems to be an improving team all around him with a running oriented team.  Guice is only 23.  

I've been high on Akers and Swift for months now, it's no secret.  Again PPR based.  I admit that those 3 have a bit more bust risk but I'm just sticking to my guns.  What if this is the year there are no top RB busts?  Swift seems a little safer than Akers does, I like risk and upside.  Worst case scenario I see them securing high efficiency touches.  That'll be enough to keep their values afloat, and depending on how they look/do as a pure runner they might be easy enough flips for even value.

Zyphros said:

I would absolutely be taking the rookies over Henry or Chubb.  Chubb is the only that MIGHT have a case, but since I favor the youth/upside plays in startup's, it's a pretty easy decision for me.  

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Chubb's PPR ranks in my league the last two seasons:

2019 - RB8

2018 - RB17 (RB9 in the second half of the season, after emerging as the guy)

Significant chance that Akers/Dobbins/Swift never have a top 10 RB season in their lives. Chubb is 24, so it's not like his career is over.

Trading a "hit" for a slightly younger chance at a hit is not a wise move. It's like trading a dollar for a coin flip to win a dollar.

It would be understandable if we were dealing with elite tier prospects, but Swift/Akers/Dobbins were picked in a range where you're as likely to get Bishop Sankey or David Montgomery as you are Derrick Henry or...Nick Chubb. Can't get on board with that type of logic.

EBF said:

Chubb's PPR ranks in my league the last two seasons:

2019 - RB8

2018 - RB17 (RB9 in the second half of the season, after emerging as the guy)

Significant chance that Akers/Dobbins/Swift never have a top 10 RB season in their lives. Chubb is 24, so it's not like his career is over.

Trading a "hit" for a slightly younger chance at a hit is not a wise move. It's like trading a dollar for a coin flip to win a dollar.

It would be understandable if we were dealing with elite tier prospects, but Swift/Akers/Dobbins were picked in a range where you're as likely to get Bishop Sankey or David Montgomery as you are Derrick Henry or...Nick Chubb. Can't get on board with that type of logic.

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That just comes down to your view on Akers/Dobbins/Swift no?  I'm trusting my evaluation instead of purely looking at draft capital.  Is that what you're referring to in your last comment? 

We've seen over and over again that RB's that aren't great pass catchers get replaced in that role.  Doesn't mean they can't rush for a boatload of yards (Henry and Chubb are great examples), but it does mean their roles are slowly (or quickly, ex. Jordan Howard) diminished.  Akers is a plus pass protector and pass catcher, Swift as well (simply don't know about dobbins), I see no reason they don't get early work and a safe'ish floor (for a rookie).  Is it a gamble? Yes it is, but the upside is greater than Chubb.  

I'm not putting Chubb out to pasture, but I do think his role shrinks moving forward.  They seem to want Baker as the engine of that offense, not Chubb.  And for the record I do think that's a mistake by the Browns.  

I'll likely have the same view on Jonathan Taylor in 2 years if he doesn't improve his pass catching.  He'll be high for a year or 2 (if he proves good at running the ball), then I'll look to replace him in the fantasy rankings for pass catching RB's with a good profile for feature workload potential. 

Zyphros said:

Is it a gamble? Yes it is, but the upside is greater than Chubb. 

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Debatable, and the downside is a lot bigger.

I'm not really a risk-averse drafter by any means, but it feels like your rankings consistently exaggerate the value of rookies relative to veterans, especially the ones like Swift/Akers/Dobbins that weren't judged as special by the draft process. The range of outcomes for rookies is so wide that there's a decent probability of Montgomery/Sankey/Montee Ball type of careers. I understand being selectively high on prospects who look special, but the fact that you have 5 rookies in your top 15 dynasty RBs suggests there isn't a whole lot of selectivity going on here, and that you're just broadly too high on them relative to guys who are already in the league.

We always like to envision the best case scenario for incoming classes, but the league rinses through 6-7 of these guys every year and only a handful of them stick.

Chubb has already stuck, so it doesn't make sense to pass on him for some maybes. Akers/Dobbins/Swift have maybe a 40-60% chance of being the Michel/Freeman/Penny of your 2022 rankings. I don't think that downside is being weighed heavily enough if you are passing up someone like Chubb to roll the dice again.

Zyphros said:

  Henry had his career year, he isn't going to repeat.  1500yds+ and 16 TD's, I don't believe he'll come close to repeating

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I think we should see a full season with Tannehill as the starter before we go declaring Henry just had his career year at age 25. I believe he was RB2 on the season once Tanny took over. I think it’s much more likely that Henry repeats as the rushing champion than it is Fournette catches anything close to 80 balls again, which was a complete anomaly. I doubt there’s too many Henry owners who are out there offering him for the 1.06 or 1.07 to draft Swift or Akers, but maybe I’m wrong. 

EBF said:

I'm not really a risk-averse drafter by any means, but it feels like your rankings consistently exaggerate the value of rookies relative to veterans

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I said as much..... This is for startup purposes of my personal draft strategy.  I heavily favor the youth that increase or maintain value.  Disagree all you want, I know I undervalue the vets who are still productive.  What's your point?  I don't want them on a startup team when the goal is the future.  All you're doing by selecting them is making your window narrower and narrower.  And then making it harder to flip them for what their values should be compared to their production.  Marvin Jones for example is going in the 100's right now according to ADP from Mizelle at WR62.  I have 0 doubt he'll outproduce that.  That doesn't make him a draft candidate for a startup for me.  

Zyphros said:

I said as much..... This is for startup purposes of my personal draft strategy.  I heavily favor the youth that increase or maintain value.  Disagree all you want, I know I undervalue the vets who are still productive.  What's your point?  I don't want them on a startup team when the goal is the future.  All you're doing by selecting them is making your window narrower and narrower. 

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A narrow window is better than no window, which is what you will get if you miss on too many "next big thing" rookies.

Anyone who knows me from way back must think it's crazy to see me as the guy arguing against rookie fever, but I'm just saying your rankings/commentary don't seem to lend ample weight to the downside of unknown quantities. You are fixated on the upside/longevity of youth, but part of a player's overall value equation is the likelihood of him becoming a reliable contributor. That's generally a lot lower with rookies than it is with guys who have already done it.

If Chubb is firmly established as a RB8-RB15 type and we buy your argument that the rookies have more upside (questionable, but let's just go with it) that doesn't automatically mean they're worth more. Historically, a lot of these guys who have potential on paper will become Felix Jones/Donald Brown/Sony Michel in the NFL and never really yield anything of value for your FF teams. Unless you're 100% certain that a rookie is an exception, it's probably best to factor that bust probability into your overall outlook of what he's worth. I'm not sure I see that here or in the WR rankings with stuff like Reagor > Beckham and Higgins > Diggs.

Feels like someone looked at the RISK x UPSIDE = VALUE equation and forgot about the risk.

EBF said:

Chubb's PPR ranks in my league the last two seasons:

2019 - RB8

2018 - RB17 (RB9 in the second half of the season, after emerging as the guy)

Significant chance that Akers/Dobbins/Swift never have a top 10 RB season in their lives. Chubb is 24, so it's not like his career is over.

Trading a "hit" for a slightly younger chance at a hit is not a wise move. It's like trading a dollar for a coin flip to win a dollar.

It would be understandable if we were dealing with elite tier prospects, but Swift/Akers/Dobbins were picked in a range where you're as likely to get Bishop Sankey or David Montgomery as you are Derrick Henry or...Nick Chubb. Can't get on board with that type of logic.

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You’re not concerned about another Chubb/Hunt RBBC? If it plays out like it did last year when they were both active, Chubb is not worth the price tag. And sure it’s only for another year (most likely), but then Chubb’s is an RB going into his 5th season and he forever bleeds value. 
 

IMO Chubb is the most overrated asset in dynasty

Yeah I wouldn't take those rookies over him straight up but Chubb was RB11 last year in PPG and that was while finishing 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards.  Unless he magically starts catching 60 passes per year or the Browns magically get good enough to support 15 rushing TDs for him he is just a low end RB1 being valued like a borderline elite dynasty asset.

He was actually RB23 in ppg last year after Hunt came back.  His receptions dropped off the map and he split the TDs with Hunt.  The most likely scenario is a mid/low RB2 season this year with Hunt around all year and while I'm sure Hunt will be gone after that he'll be at around that 25 turning 26 age where dynasty owners start to get uninterested, especially with a likely career high finish of RB11 in PPG at that point in his career.

I had similar fears about the trajectory with Chubb, compared to his still relatively soaring value. Despite loving him I made the move to deal him for DJ Moore, it just feels like their values are trending in opposite directions for the foreseeable future.

Edgar said:

You’re not concerned about another Chubb/Hunt RBBC? If it plays out like it did last year when they were both active, Chubb is not worth the price tag. And sure it’s only for another year (most likely), but then Chubb’s is an RB going into his 5th season and he forever bleeds value. 
 

IMO Chubb is the most overrated asset in dynasty

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"Don't let perfect be the enemy of good."

Chubb is a 24 year old RB with 2,490 rushing yards over the past two seasons on 5.1 YPC. There will be up years and down years, but it's pretty clear in dynasty that you're getting a really good player who you can plug into your lineup and forget about. I'd probably slot him around RB8-10 for dynasty purposes and since his ADP is around that range, I'm not on board with him being significantly overrated.

EBF said:

"Don't let perfect be the enemy of good."

Chubb is a 24 year old RB with 2,490 rushing yards over the past two seasons on 5.1 YPC. There will be up years and down years, but it's pretty clear in dynasty that you're getting a really good player who you can plug into your lineup and forget about. I'd probably slot him around RB8-10 for dynasty purposes and since his ADP is around that range, I'm not on board with him being significantly overrated.

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The exact same argument could have been made for Jordan Howard 2 years into his career.

Chubb won't finish in the top 2 in rushing every year, and even when he did he was still barely a low RB1 in PPG.  It's fantasy football which means he's going to have to either start scoring a lot more TDs or catching a lot more passes (both unlikely for at least this next year with Hunt in town, probably perpetually).  He is currently RB6 in startup ADP with a career best RB11 ppg finish that is likely to trend down this year.

He's a good runner no doubt, but without severely high TD opportunity in Cleveland that can only get you so far in fantasy.

FreeBaGeL said:

The exact same argument could have been made for Jordan Howard 2 years into his career.

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And plenty of guys who went on to great careers.

I'd have Chubb around RB8-10, which seems like a fair spot for him. There aren't 10-15 elite foundational three down backs in the NFL at any given time, so at some point when the top guys are gone you need to accept that you're not going to get a 300 carry reception machine. At any rate, his receiving production has actually been decent and the Browns probably aren't going to be any worse in the future than they've been. I don't see an argument for him as a player that's going to kill your dynasty roster long-term, barring injury or unexpected off-field stuff. Is he overrated by 4-5 spots in the RB rankings? That's a realistic possibility, but it's pretty nitpicky. I still comfortably take him over guys like Swift and Akers, which was my original point.

You can go and build a list of all the RBs drafted in the 2nd round in the last 15 years and see how many guys you'd take over Chubb. It's not going to be a great batting average.

Just a quick comment. Chubb was drafted in the 2nd round (35 overall).  Swift, Akers, and Dobbins were also all drafted in round 2... so they were all drafted In the same range with Sankey, Montgomery, etc.
Now if you want to say that Chubb has already proven his NFL skills over the past 2 years I agree, but you can’t use the draft spots against the 3 rookies since Chubb was picked in the exact same range as them.   

Boone22 said:

Just a quick comment. Chubb was drafted in the 2nd round (35 overall).  Swift, Akers, and Dobbins were also all drafted in round 2... so they were all drafted In the same range with Sankey, Montgomery, etc.
Now if you want to say that Chubb has already proven his NFL skills over the past 2 years I agree, but you can’t use the draft spots against the 3 rookies since Chubb was picked in the exact same range as them.   

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I think Chubb would have been a first rounder if he had not had that horrific knee injury in college. IMO Chubb was close to on par with Barkley as a prospect before the injury. Really neither here nor there as he ended up a second rounder. I just think his level of talent is a round above this years crop. 

Boone22 said:

Just a quick comment. Chubb was drafted in the 2nd round (35 overall).  Swift, Akers, and Dobbins were also all drafted in round 2... so they were all drafted In the same range with Sankey, Montgomery, etc.
Now if you want to say that Chubb has already proven his NFL skills over the past 2 years I agree, but you can’t use the draft spots against the 3 rookies since Chubb was picked in the exact same range as them.   

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Of course you can use their draft capital against them.  By all accounts, as a 2nd round RB Chubb has already proven that he belongs (and more) in the NFL.  Odds are reasonable that one or more of this years 2nd rounders will prove otherwise.  Your premise is like saying you can’t use the draft status of a rookie QB drafted in the 6th round against him when comparing him to Tom Brady, because Brady was a 6th rounder too.  Sure you can.  Brady, and Chubb to a far lesser extent, have proven they more than belong in the league and likely have staying power.  Swift, Taylor, Akers, and Dobbins haven’t.

SayWhat? said:

Of course you can use their draft capital against them.  By all accounts, as a 2nd round RB Chubb has already proven that he belongs (and more) in the NFL.  Odds are reasonable that one or more of this years 2nd rounders will prove otherwise.  Your premise is like saying you can’t use the draft status of a rookie QB drafted in the 6th round against him when comparing him to Tom Brady, because Brady was a 6th rounder too.  Sure you can.  Brady, and Chubb to a far lesser extent, have proven they more than belong in the league and likely have staying power.  Swift, Taylor, Akers, and Dobbins haven’t.

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Yep.  If the NFL did a redraft of Chubb’s draft class, would he go higher or lower than 35th?   Probably a lot higher.

In regards to Chubb....I dont think the Cleveland offense has really taken off yet. They upgraded the O line with Conklin and Willis. Hunt will obviously impact his ceiling this year but if that offense takes off it might not matter if there's more TD's to go around. 

Stefanski looking to implement a heavy run approach like they used in Minnesota also. The only thing I dont like about Chubb is Hunt, and that looks to be a short term concern.