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Zyphros

Zyphros' Rankings - Rookie top40

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Yes I already have offseason dynasty rankings.

I did a rankings sheet before the season and it really helped me out in terms of value of where players are at so I decided to update my list and begin the process of what I expect to be some Dynasty Rankings.  I've never relied on other rankings myself (partially because nobody seems to update them when I need it updated) so fiddling with names is something I really enjoy.  Would I take player x over player y and that sort of thing.  So I put them all into tiers and have a top 172 (just a random number honestly), but I like that because to me it covers pretty much anyone at all with trade value.  Anyone else is flier level that could/should be swapped for very minimal investment.  

I think I got all the names on it that I'm comfortable with but there could always be 1 or 2 guys that slip through that I completely forgot about so don't rip me too hard if I leave off someone.

Anyways let's kick off the thread with the QB's:

Tier1 - (1) Patrick Mahomes, (2) Russell Wilson

Tier2 - (3) Carson Wentz, (4) Cam Newton

Tier3 - (5) Andrew Luck, (6) Jared Goff, (7) Deshaun Watson

Tier 4 - (8) Aaron Rodgers, (9) Drew Brees (DND), (10) Matt Ryan, (11) Baker Mayfield, (12) Jimmy Garoppolo, (13) Kirk Cousins

Tier 5 - (14) Ben Roethlisberger (DND), (15) Mitchell Trubisky, (16) Marcus Mariota, (17) Josh Rosen

Tier 6 - (18) Matthew Stafford, (19) Tom Brady (DND), (20) Philip Rivers, (21) Sam Darnold, (22) Dak Prescott

Tier 7 - (23) Derek Carr, (24) Lamar Jackson, (25) Andy Dalton, (26) Teddy Bridgewater, (27) Josh Allen

Tier 8 - (28) Joe Flacco, (29) Jacoby Brissett, (30) Jameis Winston (DND)

As for just a few notes, I love me some Russell Wilson so he gets the nod to join Mahomes but I'd be happy with anyone in the top17 pretty much going into 2019 season and then play mix and match with the rest, depending on my strategy.  There's just so many good things on Mahomes' side that to me he's undeniably the #1 dynasty QB.  Luck looks back to being himself and with an o-line that looks like it's going to last, I think I can comfortably say he's a top5 dynasty QB again.  Really heavily favored youth a bit in these but the one that sticks out to me is Rodgers.  He just isn't Rodgers of old anymore.  He doesn't provide a dominant advantage over other QB's anymore so he's a little low, I just can't justify him ahead of any of those others when there is running QB floor and insane offenses for each and every one of them ahead of him.  And lastly there's 3 starting QB's that I left off this list, Tannehill, Keenum, Alex Smith.  They're even more replaceable than the ones I did list so they didn't make it to my top30 for QB's.  

Most everyone behind tier3 has some sort of changes coming their way, which is one reason why Rodgers is in tier4.  Whether it's retirement, new offensive schemes, fired coaches, adding weapons or they themselves are on a new team possibly.  I think it's justified to keep them lower on the totem pole especially for dynasty purposes.  All of that could change when the draft rolls around though.  The top7 on this list all have great stability for their futures I think and have that floor because of 1 of 2 reasons, they run the ball a little themselves or their offenses are high powered.  That's where I want my dynasty QB.  They're safe and can boom any week.  

Not sure when I'll post the WR's, RB's or TE's.  Let me know which you'd like to see next, otherwise I'll just choose.  Probably post again near the weekend.  QB's I just felt a little more comfortable with so that's what came first.  

Comments are more than welcome, that's why I post.  

Edited by Zyphros
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I would switch Deshaun Watson with Russell Wilson, otherwise the tiering looks solid.

Also put Mahomes up to "Legend Tier" he should have the top level all to himself.

Edited by Casting Couch

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I have to say, as a multi-league Mahomes owner, the idea that Wilson is in the same tier just doesn't ring true. Any type of offer centered around that swap would be laughed out the door. Mahomes just seems to be in a tier of his own.

The next step down for me would be people like Luck, Goff, and Wentz.

I like what Mayfield has shown and would be pleased with him as a cheaper alternative.

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Agreed, Mahomes is likely a tier of his own. If you have Wilson that high and you own Mahomes, you can probably get a lot back in addition.

I’d probably have both Goff and Wilson in tier 2. As a Goff owner I can’t imagine trading him for wentz straight up (I probably would if not for mcvay) so I lean towards putting Wentz in tier 3.

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Thank you for the work, love the rankings. Below are the adjustments I would make. I never understood the year-after-year love for Russell Wilson by the FF world. He is a great NFL QB but I don’t see the FF love (currently ranked 14th overall in points in my league). I think Mahomes should be in a tier on his own. Tier 6 & 7 are challenging to rank as you are deciding between production or youth and upside. I was close to putting Trubisky up another tier but need a little more convincing.

 

Tier1 - (1) Patrick Mahomes 

Tier2 - (2) Andrew Luck, (3) Carson Wentz, (4) Deshaun Watson, (5) Jared Goff

Tier3 - (6) Cam Newton, (7) Russell Wilson

Tier 4 - (8) Aaron Rodgers, (9) Drew Brees (DND), (10) Baker Mayfield, (11) Matt Ryan, (12) Jimmy Garoppolo, (13) Kirk Cousins

Tier 5 - (14) Mitch Trubisky (15) Ben Roethlisberger (DND)

Tier6 - (16) Matthew Stafford, (17) Tom Brady (DND), (18) Philip Rivers, (19) Sam Darnold, (20) Marcus Mariotta, (21) Lamar Jackson, (22) Dak Prescott, (23) Josh Rosen

Tier 7 - (24) Teddy Bridgewater, (25) Derek Carr, (26) Josh Allen, (27) Andy Dalton

Tier 8 - (28) Joe Flacco, (29) Jacoby Brissett, (30) Jameis Winston (DND)

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Tier 1 - (1) Patrick Mahomes 

Tier 2 - (2) Deshaun Watson (3) Russell Wilson (4) Andrew Luck (5) Carson Wentz (6) Jared Goff

Tier 3 - (7) Cam Newton (8) Baker Mayfield (9) Aaron Rodgers

Tier 4 -  (10) Drew Brees (11) Matt Ryan (12) Phil Rivers (13) Mitchell Trubisky

Tier 5 - (14) Jimmy Groppolo (15) Ben Roethlisberger (16) Matthew Stafford (17) Kirk Cousins

Tier6 - (18) Tom Brady (19) Jameis Winston (20) Andy Dalton (21) Josh Rosen (22) Derek Carr

Tier 7 - (23) Dak Prescott (24) Marcus Mariotta (25) Lamar Jackson (26) Joe Flacco (27)  Josh Allen 

Tier 8 - (28) Sam Darnold (29) Teddy Bridgewater (30) Jacoby Brissett, 

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

 I never understood the year-after-year love for Russell Wilson by the FF world. He is a great NFL QB but I don’t see the FF love (currently ranked 14th overall in points in my league).

Maybe this will help explain the love:

2014:  QB5 overall
2015:  QB3 overall
2016:  QB11 overall
2017:  QB1 overall

When you finish 1st overall the year before and finish top 5 in three of the last four years, you're probably going to get a little fantasy love. 

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QBs are more difficult to rank in dynasty because the age factor shouldn't be as big a deal, but it does need to be considered. Here is my stab at it: 

Tier 1: (1) Patrick Mahomes; (2) Andrew Luck

Tier 2: (3) Jared Goff; (4) Carson Wentz; (5) DeShaun Watson

Tier 3: (6) Cam Newton; (7) Russell Wilson; (8) Mitchell Trubisky

Tier 4: (9) Kirk Cousins; (10) Aaron Rodgers; (11) Ben Roethlisberger; (12) Baker Mayfield

Tier 5: (13) Dak Prescott; (14) Matt Stafford; (15) Drew Brees

Tier 6: (16) Sam Darnold; (17) Matt Ryan; (18) Josh Rosen; (19) Tom Brady; (20) Lamar Jackson

Tier 7:

(21) Phillip Rivers

(22) Teddy Bridgewater

(23) Jimmy Garroppolo

(24) Jaemis Winston

(25) Marcus Mariotta

(26) Josh Allen

(27) Derek Carr

(28) Nick Foles

(29) Andy Dalton

(30) Chad Kelly

 

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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30 minutes ago, heckmanm said:

I assume "DND" here is "do not draft" generally because of age?

Yes, I use that designation when I get to my seasonal rankings due to a few reasons.  If I want no part in their abilities (Winston), if their ability is on the downswing even if they are productive (Brees, Brady), or even if their ADP is somewhere I wouldn't want to take them (very likely Mahomes next year).  I just didn't include all of the "DND's" right away since it's still November after all.  

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2 hours ago, Casting Couch said:

I would switch Deshaun Watson with Russell Wilson, otherwise the tiering looks solid.

Also put Mahomes up to "Legend Tier" he should have the top level all to himself.

 

1 hour ago, EBF said:

I have to say, as a multi-league Mahomes owner, the idea that Wilson is in the same tier just doesn't ring true. Any type of offer centered around that swap would be laughed out the door. Mahomes just seems to be in a tier of his own.

The next step down for me would be people like Luck, Goff, and Wentz.

I like what Mayfield has shown and would be pleased with him as a cheaper alternative.

I guess I just expect regression out of him.  Was never a big Mahomes guy in the first place, got to the party late, and don't expect him to continue his tear through the league, but no denying he's up there for sure.  

Everyone is just riding high on this Mahomes train and he'll come back down to earth and settle in with the rest of the QB landscape like Wentz, Luck, Watson, Wilson all did.  All of who'm were considered a top (if not #1) QB after their rookie years too.  

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Since you asked..... I'd really like to see how you (or others) will rank the RBs.

I'm really happy with my young RB depth this year and would like to see where you have them tiered.

So I'm not going to make these totally about me, but I have 3 solid young RBS and also have Drake.... just was wondering where you see him falling in a tiered system.

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3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

 

I guess I just expect regression out of him.  Was never a big Mahomes guy in the first place, got to the party late, and don't expect him to continue his tear through the league, but no denying he's up there for sure.  

Everyone is just riding high on this Mahomes train and he'll come back down to earth and settle in with the rest of the QB landscape like Wentz, Luck, Watson, Wilson all did.  All of who'm were considered a top (if not #1) QB after their rookie years too.  

 

I agree he almost has to regress towards the field. 

But I disagree about people being too high on him. What he is doing is special, and different from all the other performances you list--and in a proven, stable offense. He doesn't need to use his legs to do what he's doing fantasy points-wise, but could actually improve in that department to help offset passing or TD regression. He's got possibly the best raw throwing ability we've seen in recent history, up there with what Rodgers ended up developing into, strength and "wow" throw wise. He doesn't take a ton of unnecessary hits, which is what happened to alter the careers of Luck, Watson, and Wentz for periods of time due to injury. 

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Bridgewater is a tough guy to rank, but it's clear that most are ranking him under the assumption he leaves New Orleans next year and lands a starting job. I think it's a pretty safe bet that he will, and he's got real talent.  If he lands in a good spot with weapons, there are a half dozen guys or more who are generally listed above him who I'd instantly move Bridgewater ahead of if his situation next year is a good one.

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My attempt - trying to weigh upside versus consistency with a tie-break going to upside.  In a "Win now" window, veterans would get a bump upward in most cases.

Tier 1 - (1)Patrick Mahomes 

Tier 2 - (2)Deshaun Watson (3)Andrew Luck (4a)Russell Wilson (4b)Carson Wentz (4c)Jared Goff

Tier 3 - (7)Aaron Rodgers (8)Cam Newton (9)Baker Mayfield  (10)Drew Brees

Tier 4 - (11)Mitchell Trubisky (12)Jimmy Groppolo (13)Marcus Mariotta (14)Phil Rivers

Tier 5 - (15)Ben Roethlisberger  (16)Kirk Cousins (17)Matt Ryan (18)Dak Prescott 

Tier6 - (19)Tom Brady (20)Lamar Jackson (21)Jameis Winston (22)Andy Dalton (23)Derek Carr

Tier 7 - (24)Matthew Stafford  (25a)Sam Darnold (25b)Josh Rosen (27)Josh Allen (28)Joe Flacco

Tier 8 - (29)Ryan Tannehill (30)Case Keenum (31)Teddy Bridgewater (32)Jacoby Brissett,  

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Goff doesn't have the TDs, but he's right there with Mahomes on everything else. To me, they're in the same tier. Hard to see Wentz in a tier above Goff at this point.

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8 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Maybe this will help explain the love:

2014:  QB5 overall
2015:  QB3 overall
2016:  QB11 overall
2017:  QB1 overall

When you finish 1st overall the year before and finish top 5 in three of the last four years, you're probably going to get a little fantasy love. 

Lazy post on my part. I have never owned him and looking back I am surprised by how effective he has been. I still would have him in tier 3 ranked 7th. Even last year he had 5 games under 200 yards passing and only 7 over 250. I prefer my QBs to be more consistent through the air in FF but that may just be me.

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8 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Everyone is just riding high on this Mahomes train and he'll come back down to earth and settle in with the rest of the QB landscape like Wentz, Luck, Watson, Wilson all did.  All of who'm were considered a top (if not #1) QB after their rookie years too.  

You named three players who've dealt with serious injuries (Watson, Luck, Wentz) and another who has never sniffed a passing season like the one Mahomes is having (Wilson). He's on pace for 54 passing TDs! Only two guys have ever exceeded 50 before (Manning and Brady). Almost every QB who has ever topped 40 is a HoF type of player. That list is Manning, Brady, Marino, Brees, Rodgers, Stafford, Warner, and Luck. I'd say that's pretty good company for a 23 year old QB.

Is regression likely? Well, yea, of course. When you're having a historically good season, of course it's going to be hard to duplicate. Peyton, Marino, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers are the only QBs to throw for 40+ TDs in a season twice, and thus far none of them has done it three times. It's not an easy thing to do. Even with NFL passing numbers trending up across the board, it's going to be hard for Mahomes to chuck 40 or 50 TDs again next year.

All the same, here's the problem with "selling high" on a guy who has a monster season like this: What if he's just this good?

What if you sold high on Gronk after his "unsustainable" 2011 season? What if you sold high on Peterson after he rushed for 1720 yards in year two? What if you sold high on Randy Moss after his rookie year when he had 17 receiving TDs? Now obviously I'm cherry-picking HoF talents, but it's to demonstrate a point: Special players do special things, and if you're always looking to cash out before regression kicks in then you can end up missing out on incredible careers.

Players who can have insane, outlier seasons are often insane outliers in their own right, and IMO those guys are the rarest commodity in FF. It's easy to find those 10-12 ppg types to fill out your lineup, but the Brees/Manning/Rodgers/Gronk/Gonzo/LT/AP/Moss/TO/Calvin types who dominate their position only come around a couple times per decade and if you miss out on them, you're not going to see their kind again for a while.

So while I expect Mahomes to regress, the chance that he's another Brees/Peyton level player can't be ignored, and even if he doesn't consistently yield these insane seasons, the fact that he's done it once proves that he can potentially do it again. There's an argument that he's another Stafford, a mid-level QB benefitting from a HoF WR talent, but when you look at that list of 40+ TD QBs, the odds start to look really nice. Those guys are astronauts and for Mahomes to be reaching the same heights in year two seems to bode really well.

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On 11/28/2018 at 5:57 PM, EthnicFury said:

Agreed, Mahomes is likely a tier of his own. If you have Wilson that high and you own Mahomes, you can probably get a lot back in addition.

I’d probably have both Goff and Wilson in tier 2. As a Goff owner I can’t imagine trading him for wentz straight up (I probably would if not for mcvay) so I lean towards putting Wentz in tier 3.

 

12 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Tier 1 - (1) Patrick Mahomes 

Tier 2 - (2) Deshaun Watson (3) Russell Wilson (4) Andrew Luck (5) Carson Wentz (6) Jared Goff

Tier 3 - (7) Cam Newton (8) Baker Mayfield (9) Aaron Rodgers

Tier 4 -  (10) Drew Brees (11) Matt Ryan (12) Phil Rivers (13) Mitchell Trubisky

Tier 5 - (14) Jimmy Groppolo (15) Ben Roethlisberger (16) Matthew Stafford (17) Kirk Cousins

Tier6 - (18) Tom Brady (19) Jameis Winston (20) Andy Dalton (21) Josh Rosen (22) Derek Carr

Tier 7 - (23) Dak Prescott (24) Marcus Mariotta (25) Lamar Jackson (26) Joe Flacco (27)  Josh Allen 

Tier 8 - (28) Sam Darnold (29) Teddy Bridgewater (30) Jacoby Brissett, 

Totally with you on the first two tiers.

I'm still not ready to put Baker in the same tier as Rodgers but with age you might be right. I'd have trubisky with Baker.

Merge tier 6 and 7, drop Flacco to 8. 

Bump Darnold up a tier.

 

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44 minutes ago, EBF said:

, .. There's an argument that he's another Stafford, a mid-level QB benefitting from a HoF WR talent, but when you look at that list of 40+ TD QBs, the odds start to look really nice. Those guys are astronauts and for Mahomes to be reaching the same heights in year two seems to bode really well.

I like hill and kelce but it seems like a really big leap to equate either to Calvin.

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Hill is putting up numbers this season that rival anything Calvin ever did.

 

100.5 yards per game

11.8 yards per target

1 receiving TD per game

A TD every 8.5 targets.

 

Dominating the league. Calvin didn't really have a season like that until his 5th year.

Calvin was a giant and a monster on jump balls, but Hill is much quicker laterally, quicker off the snap, and faster overall.

So far nobody has shown any signs of being able to stop him.

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While Calvin’s catch radius definitely allowed catches on a lot of subpar balls, it’s reasonable to think Tyreek taking a lot of catches within 5 yards of the LoS 70 yards to the house is gonna boost Mahomes’s stats in a fairly rare way

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22 hours ago, EBF said:

Hill is putting up numbers this season that rival anything Calvin ever did.

 

100.5 yards per game

11.8 yards per target

1 receiving TD per game

A TD every 8.5 targets.

 

Dominating the league. Calvin didn't really have a season like that until his 5th year.

Calvin was a giant and a monster on jump balls, but Hill is much quicker laterally, quicker off the snap, and faster overall.

So far nobody has shown any signs of being able to stop him.

Calvin never had anything resembling Mahomes. Put Hill with Stafford and he's a zero.

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Hill is one of the most dominant players in the league at the moment.

He wouldn't be a "zero" anywhere.

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2 hours ago, lod001 said:

Calvin never had anything resembling Mahomes. Put Hill with Stafford and he's a zero.

Lol. Tyreek was the #8 WR last year with Alex “once went an entire season without throwing single TD to a WR” freaking Smith

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Since the QB discussion died down a bit and we are at the weekend here's the RB rankings. 

It's easiest to just keep Kareem Hunt where I had him instead of moving him because so much is uncertain there, I definitely think he gets another chance because at least to me the biggest reason he was released was because he lied to them and less about the incident.  And I just honestly wouldn't quite know where I would want him ranked after all of that.  Same goes for Ware who might be my biggest omission right now.  I know very little about him so I left him off completely for now.  

The ranks are based on 1/2 ppr

 

Tier 1 - (1) Saquon Barkley, (2) Todd Gurley, (3) Ezekiel Elliott

Tier 2 - (4) Alvin Kamara, (5) Kareem Hunt, (6) Christian McCaffrey, (7) James Connor, (8) Joe Mixon, (9) Melvin Gordon, (10) Nick Chubb, (11) Derrius Guice

Tier 3 - (12) David Johnson, (13) Le'Veon Bell, (14) Leonard Fournette, (15) Kerryon Johnson, (16) Aaron Jones, (17) Sony Michel

Tier 4 - (18) Rashaad Penny, (19) Dalvin Cook, (20) Phillip Lindsey, (21) Marlon Mack, (22) Tevin Coleman, (23) Jerrick McKinnon

Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards

Tier 9 - (53) Kalen Ballage, (54) Chase Edmunds, (55) John Kelly

 

The top3 RB's I feel are total locks.  No uncertainty about what they'll do no matter the circumstances.  Gurley has a great offense, Zeke gets fed, and Barkley is just that damn good.  Then Tier 2 is the super solid, consolation prizes of stud RB's.  Then we get into more and more questions obviously.  I feel like RB is pretty deep right now with a lot of youth on the upswing.  When I finalized this list, the ones that kind of stood out to me are Hines, Foreman, Devonte Freeman, Josh Adams, Yeldon, Breida, Lindsey, Mack, Fournette, Bell, DJ, McKinnon.  Some have fallen from the elite tiers 1 and 2, and some are up and comers who need opportunity to show what they can do.  All of who I feel like could either boom or bust next year.  Someone will likely take them higher than they should and either feel smarter than the world or regret it the rest of the season.  But That's everyone I see having some value going into 2019, some as handcuff pieces, some as fliers and some as depth.  

And unlike the WR group I don't see the RB landscape changing a whole lot based on the draft.  Maybe 2-3 of the 2019 class fit the bill but I don't think I could put them any higher than Tier 5.  But I haven't done a whole lot of 2019 work yet for the rookies.  

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chubb low for me, as i believe he starts catching more and more passes. 

Id defo have him above hunt, mixon and melvin, but that's just me. 

Ahead of connor too, actually

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Has Rodgers really dropped this far in dynasty over the last 4 weeks? It seems like just a few weeks ago he was in everyone's top 5. I understand he has not looked right lately but this big of a drop in dynasty when most elite QB's still produce at a high level up to the age of 40 seems like a short term reaction.

 

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1 hour ago, Soulfly3 said:

chubb low for me, as i believe he starts catching more and more passes. 

Id defo have him above hunt, mixon and melvin, but that's just me. 

Ahead of connor too, actually

Chubb is more than capable of being a good receiving RB, but he isn't special in that area.  Most of the RB's ahead of him on this list are.  Out of the ones you mentioned, Hunt and Mixon are special pass catchers.  Melvin is very good and Connor is again capable.  I just have more faith in an organization not named the Browns to utilize their RB's more effectively.  Chubb is still a stud RB but being special in the pass catching role is what puts other's ahead of him.  I actually believe this might be 1 spot too high for Chubb mostly due to Guice also being special as a pass catcher, but we haven't seen him much in the NFL yet so Chubb takes the tie breaker I had between them.  

I actually noticed that the other day of my bias towards the Browns.  I have Houston's defense in one league and I was scratching my head why I picked them up and then I saw their week 13 matchup at Cleveland.  Then the next thought that crossed my mind was "wait, Cleveland actually isn't bad anymore".  Old habits die hard I guess.  

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1 hour ago, dmac37 said:

Has Rodgers really dropped this far in dynasty over the last 4 weeks? It seems like just a few weeks ago he was in everyone's top 5. I understand he has not looked right lately but this big of a drop in dynasty when most elite QB's still produce at a high level up to the age of 40 seems like a short term reaction.

 

Agree. He's still in tier 2 for me. Luck, Rodgers, Wilson, Goff, Watson 

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3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Since the QB discussion died down a bit and we are at the weekend here's the RB rankings. 

It's easiest to just keep Kareem Hunt where I had him instead of moving him because so much is uncertain there, I definitely think he gets another chance because at least to me the biggest reason he was released was because he lied to them and less about the incident.  And I just honestly wouldn't quite know where I would want him ranked after all of that.  Same goes for Ware who might be my biggest omission right now.  I know very little about him so I left him off completely for now.  

The ranks are based on 1/2 ppr

 

Tier 1 - (1) Saquon Barkley, (2) Todd Gurley, (3) Ezekiel Elliott

Tier 2 - (4) Alvin Kamara, (5) Kareem Hunt, (6) Christian McCaffrey, (7) James Connor, (8) Joe Mixon, (9) Melvin Gordon, (10) Nick Chubb, (11) Derrius Guice

Tier 3 - (12) David Johnson, (13) Le'Veon Bell, (14) Leonard Fournette, (15) Kerryon Johnson, (16) Aaron Jones, (17) Sony Michel

Tier 4 - (18) Rashaad Penny, (19) Dalvin Cook, (20) Phillip Lindsey, (21) Marlon Mack, (22) Tevin Coleman, (23) Jerrick McKinnon

Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards

Tier 9 - (53) Kalen Ballage, (54) Chase Edmunds, (55) John Kelly

 

The top3 RB's I feel are total locks.  No uncertainty about what they'll do no matter the circumstances.  Gurley has a great offense, Zeke gets fed, and Barkley is just that damn good.  Then Tier 2 is the super solid, consolation prizes of stud RB's.  Then we get into more and more questions obviously.  I feel like RB is pretty deep right now with a lot of youth on the upswing.  When I finalized this list, the ones that kind of stood out to me are Hines, Foreman, Devonte Freeman, Josh Adams, Yeldon, Breida, Lindsey, Mack, Fournette, Bell, DJ, McKinnon.  Some have fallen from the elite tiers 1 and 2, and some are up and comers who need opportunity to show what they can do.  All of who I feel like could either boom or bust next year.  Someone will likely take them higher than they should and either feel smarter than the world or regret it the rest of the season.  But That's everyone I see having some value going into 2019, some as handcuff pieces, some as fliers and some as depth.  

And unlike the WR group I don't see the RB landscape changing a whole lot based on the draft.  Maybe 2-3 of the 2019 class fit the bill but I don't think I could put them any higher than Tier 5.  But I haven't done a whole lot of 2019 work yet for the rookies.  

Always appreciate others putting their thoughts out there no matter how much I agree or disagree with. Good stuff.

The top 15ish guys can be moved around a lot depending on preference and risk. Beyond that, I think there are plenty of guys I think are too high (Guice, Coleman, McKinnon, Freeman, Foreman) and others I think you're low on (Collins, Miller, Howard, Breida). I agree that the draft won't change a whole lot, but I think free agency will, at least in the 15 to 30 group. It's up in the air where a bunch of guys who have had success in the NFL land next year. 

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On 12/1/2018 at 7:07 PM, Steelers4Life said:

Always appreciate others putting their thoughts out there no matter how much I agree or disagree with. Good stuff.

The top 15ish guys can be moved around a lot depending on preference and risk. Beyond that, I think there are plenty of guys I think are too high (Guice, Coleman, McKinnon, Freeman, Foreman) and others I think you're low on (Collins, Miller, Howard, Breida). I agree that the draft won't change a whole lot, but I think free agency will, at least in the 15 to 30 group. It's up in the air where a bunch of guys who have had success in the NFL land next year. 

Why am I low on Collins, Miller, Howard and Breida?  Out of that group Breida is the only one with a legit chance at a dominant workload and that's entirely dependent on what McKinnon does next year.  That's why I ranked them close together, but the others?  They're good RB's but they don't dominate games, they don't even get 15+ touches most games.  They barely catch passes as well.  You're better off with the Theo Riddick's, Austin Ekeler, Jalen Richard types than taking these 15 or under touches RB's in PPR since you never know which game they'll be good.  Miller averages 13.5 carries a game (even more muddled when Foreman comes back), Jordan Howard averages 13.7 carries (probably pretty steady with this workload), and Collins averages 10.4 (up until his injury, and at worst when he comes back he shares with Edwards).  If you want to invest higher in those guys be my guest, but they're in no way a guy I want on my roster.  Maybe Howard, but he needs a change in scenery to be viable.  

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I'm a Miller owner for the past 2 years, so I get the frustrations and concerns. But, boy, does he look sharp when that offense is clicking with Watson at QB, and when they hand him the ball. Wondering why the team doesn't look at his past few games and say "yup. he's our guy for the next couple of years."

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Why am I low on Collins, Miller, Howard and Breida?  Out of that group Breida is the only one with a legit chance at a dominant workload and that's entirely dependent on what McKinnon does next year.  That's why I ranked them close together, but the others?  They're good RB's but they don't dominate games, they don't even get 15+ touches most games.  They barely catch passes as well.  You're better off with the Theo Riddick's, Austin Ekeler, Jalen Richard types than taking these 15 or under touches RB's in PPR since you never know which game they'll be good.  Miller averages 13.5 carries a game (even more muddled when Foreman comes back), Jordan Howard averages 13.7 carries (probably pretty steady with this workload), and Collins averages 10.4 (up until his injury, and at worst when he comes back he shares with Edwards).  If you want to invest higher in those guys be my guest, but they're in no way a guy I want on my roster.  Maybe Howard, but he needs a change in scenery to be viable.  

Again, it's a matter of opinion.  If you're basing your 2019 rankings on current situation, sure, I can agree. Situations change, and I look more at talent. 

I don't expect Collins to be back in Baltimore next year, and a change of scenery to a team that will allow him to get into a rhythm each week could provide results similar to what he did late last year. He's only 24.

I think Lamar Miller has proven himself to be useful enough that he very well might have several years of RB2/RB3 value left in him.

Jordan Howard, also only 24, was RB8 and RB14 in 2016 and 2017 before falling out of favor in the new offense.  He's a strong runner who isn't completely terrible at catching passes, and while he desperately needs a change in scenery, he's likely to get one.

And yeah, I think Breida has earned at least a 1B (or maybe 1A) role in what should be a productive backfield.

I like all 4 of them a lot more than you do because there's every reason to think their situations will change, and at their age, there's a lot of value left in them (with the possible exception of Miller). Riddick, Ekeler, and Richard are always going to be the type of RB who'll need an injury or two to be relevant.

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WR time

Tier 1 - (1) DeAndre Hopkins, (2) Michael Thomas, (3) Odell Beckham Jr, (4) Tyreek Hill

Tier 2 - (5) Davante Adams, (6) Keenan Allen, (7) JuJu Smith-Schuster, (8) Mike Evans, (9) Antonio Brown, (10) Julio Jones

Tier 3 - (11) TY Hilton, (12) AJ Green, (13) Adam Thielen

Tier 4 - (14) Kenny Golladay, (15) Stefon Diggs, (16) Amari Cooper, (17) Allen Robinson, (18) Corey Davis, (19) DJ Moore, (20) Cooper Kupp, (21) Chris Godwin, (22) Alshon Jeffery, (23) Robert Woods, (24) Brandin Cooks, (25) Josh Gordon, (26)Tyler Boyd

Tier 5 - (27) Will Fuller, (28) Christian Kirk, (29) Courtland Sutton, (30) Calvin Ridley, (31) Jarvis Landry, (32) Michael Gallup, (33) Anthony Miller (34) Emmanuel Sanders

Tier 6 - (35) Marvin Jones, (36) Tre'Quan Smith, (37) Josh Reynolds, (38) Curtis Samuel, (39) Marquise Goodwin, (40)Tyler Lockett, (41) Antonio Callaway, (42) Devante Parker

Tier 7 - (43) Mike Williams, (44) Julien Edelman, (45) Sterling Shepard, (46) Chris Conley, (47) Dede Westbrook, (48) Daeshawn Hamilton, (49) Tyrell Williams

Tier 8 - (50) Devin Funchess, (51) Paul Richardson, (52) Sammy Watkins, (53) Equanimeous St. Brown

Tier 9 - (54) James Washington, (55) Golden Tate, (56) Marquez Valdes-Scantling, (57) Doug Baldwin, (58) Keelan Cole, (59) Quincy Enunwa, (60) DJ Chark

Basically the only questions about my own rankings I have are the Rams WR's, and the giant group of tier4.  All of them in that group I think will either make/break a season depending on who you pick and it's literally a crapshoot. I see the rookie WR's in 2019 jumping into tier 4 and 5.  There are so many young guys in that group it was pretty difficult in my mind to separate them.  

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Thanks again...

The one guy who jumped out at me right away is Mike Williams. I can't see a scenario where he's not a starter next year, and he sure makes the most of limited chances this year.  I'd take him over every WR you have listed in the Tier 6 group and at least some of the guys you have listed in Tier 5. You don't see him as a starter and impact player next year?

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Tier 4 - (14) Kenny Golladay, (15) Stefon Diggs, (16) Amari Cooper, (17) Allen Robinson, (18) Corey Davis, (19) DJ Moore, (20) Cooper Kupp, (21) Chris Godwin, (22) Alshon Jeffery, (23) Robert Woods, (24) Brandin Cooks, (25) Josh Gordon, (26)Tyler Boyd

Tier 5 - (27) Will Fuller, (28) Christian Kirk, (29) Courtland Sutton, (30) Calvin Ridley, (31) Jarvis Landry, (32) Michael Gallup, (33) Anthony Miller (34) Emmanuel Sanders

Tier 6 - (35) Marvin Jones, (36) Tre'Quan Smith, (37) Josh Reynolds, (38) Curtis Samuel, (39) Marquise Goodwin, (40)Tyler Lockett, (41) Antonio Callaway, (42) Devante Parker

 

Thanks for the effort to organize these rankings! Appreciate the work!

The HEART of any competitive Fantasy team in a PPR league is managing these type of mid tier value WRs.  IMO, this is where the challenge comes in where you have to balance roster /positions.  How many WR vs RB are  best for your league dynamics?  The youth movement could evolve faster in players like C Kirk & C Ridley due there Offense schemes, while DJ Moore & C Samuel could take a little longer since Norv Turner is a "running OC" & CMC being the focal point of the offense.  

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Great rankings. I'm surprised at how low Lockett is. He is easily a WR2 this year in total points for PPR leagues. Hard to believe he's ranked 40th with Baldwin getting older. 

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Love it @Zyphros, keep up the good work! 

My thoughts:

QB:  So much personal preference at QB, I can't quibble much with those rankings.  I'd shuffle a few guys here but mostly I'd eliminate about half of the tiers.  IMO there's Mahommes in Tier 1, the semi-established youngsters or established middle aged guys in Tier 2 (Wentz, Watson, Goff, Cam, Wilson, Luck, etc...and maybe Rodgers), then the elite old/high upside youngsters in Tier 3 (Brees, Mayfield, Ben, Trubisky, Garropolo, Cousins, Jackson, Rivers, etc) and then the rest I'd probably break into Tiers 4/5.

RB:  My only comment, and it's so so minor, is that I've seen enough out of Christian McCaffrey that he's my RB4 and he's far closer to the elite in Tier 1 for me than he is Conner, Mixon, Gordon, Chubb, or Guice.  Ditto Kamara, though I feel far more comfortable that McCaffrey is in the league and doing similar things as far out as 8 years from now.  Never ever have I felt more comfortable holding a RB for the long haul in a ppr as I do McCaffrey.  Best case he's the workhorse and he's elite as he's proving this season, worst case he's still catching 70+ passes and is a RB2 type. 

WR: Allen Robinson is about to wrap up his fifth year in the league.  He has a career catch rate of 53.7% and one fantasy relevant season.   It seems unlikely that he's going to start catching 70% of passes thrown his way, and I don't foresee any way he gets the 150 targets he needs to be ranked anywhere close to top 20.  He's far closer to Sammy Watkins IMO than any of the WR's he's lumped in with.  

TY Hilton is 29 and I'd be scared to death if I were holding him.  He's got some potential to have a run late into his 30's ala Marvin Harrison, but his game is built on speed far more than Harrison's was.  I don't trust him, and I'd likely take a solid 10 of the WR's listed below him before I took Hilton in a start-up.  

You're not along in your general ranking of Alshon Jeffrey, but my Lord I don't get it at all.  Also turning 29, he's into his 4th consecutive year of being mostly mediocre and continues to deal with nagging injuries.  There's positively zero upside with him IMO.  He's a solid 20 spots to high as far as I'm concerned.  

As he's about to lose his year 32 season to his recovery from a torn ACL, I'm not even sure Emmanuel Sanders should be ranked, let alone at #34.

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Cooks consistently underrated by many, IMO. His 4th 1000 yard season and the only thing missing this year are TDs (which he's scored plenty of in the past). Still only 25, there aren't 23 WRs I'd take over him.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Great rankings. I'm surprised at how low Lockett is. He is easily a WR2 this year in total points for PPR leagues. Hard to believe he's ranked 40th with Baldwin getting older. 

Agreed. Lockett is in the top half of tier 5 IMO. I assume the sanders ranking is pre-injury; love his game but not taking a 33 year old coming off a late-season Achilles anywhere near that high

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7 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

Thanks again...

The one guy who jumped out at me right away is Mike Williams. I can't see a scenario where he's not a starter next year, and he sure makes the most of limited chances this year.  I'd take him over every WR you have listed in the Tier 6 group and at least some of the guys you have listed in Tier 5. You don't see him as a starter and impact player next year?

Mike Williams is a glorified Josh Doctson.  He might be the default #2 WR on that team next year, but he's still going to be 4th at best option with Hunter Henry back and whatever RB they choose to move forward with, Melvin being on 5th year option which I don't think they've initiated that yet.  Either way, I don't see a big role for him moving forward and I was never a big fan of his in the first place.  That's why he's the start of a new tier for me.  Just didn't make the cut in the tier above where there are guys I really like that I would rather take.  

5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Great rankings. I'm surprised at how low Lockett is. He is easily a WR2 this year in total points for PPR leagues. Hard to believe he's ranked 40th with Baldwin getting older. 

Currently at least, Lockett is WR19 in PPR scoring.  Pretty good and I do agree that Baldwin being older will elevate him a bit, but I don't see his role expanding, I see his role maintaining and he's just one of those replaceable WR2's that are all over the place.  I'd rather take my shot somewhere else where the role is more profound like tiers 4 and 5 that I can see the roles increasing for more production at that spot.  I like Lockett, but he's not as valuable as his production, which usually makes for lower rankings in general for anyone under that category.  

 

2 hours ago, gianmarco said:

Cooks consistently underrated by many, IMO. His 4th 1000 yard season and the only thing missing this year are TDs (which he's scored plenty of in the past). Still only 25, there aren't 23 WRs I'd take over him.

See my comments on Lockett.  They're the same guy basically, except name brand has kept Cooks' value higher.  I don't trust his target share in that offense as much as I'd trust Woods or Kupps.  Not to say he won't be productive because I don't doubt that at all, he's just more volatile than the others so he's the lowest of the Rams WR's.  

2 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

Love it @Zyphros, keep up the good work! 

My thoughts:

WR: Allen Robinson is about to wrap up his fifth year in the league.  He has a career catch rate of 53.7% and one fantasy relevant season.   It seems unlikely that he's going to start catching 70% of passes thrown his way, and I don't foresee any way he gets the 150 targets he needs to be ranked anywhere close to top 20.  He's far closer to Sammy Watkins IMO than any of the WR's he's lumped in with.  

TY Hilton is 29 and I'd be scared to death if I were holding him.  He's got some potential to have a run late into his 30's ala Marvin Harrison, but his game is built on speed far more than Harrison's was.  I don't trust him, and I'd likely take a solid 10 of the WR's listed below him before I took Hilton in a start-up.  

You're not along in your general ranking of Alshon Jeffrey, but my Lord I don't get it at all.  Also turning 29, he's into his 4th consecutive year of being mostly mediocre and continues to deal with nagging injuries.  There's positively zero upside with him IMO.  He's a solid 20 spots to high as far as I'm concerned.  

As he's about to lose his year 32 season to his recovery from a torn ACL, I'm not even sure Emmanuel Sanders should be ranked, let alone at #34.

I totally agree with you on McCaffrey and it was tough to do, and I think since I posted those RB rankings I might have to change that because he's such a focal point now over the past 4 weeks that I didn't quite realize how much.  

As for the WR's you mentioned.  Robinson I have faith enough that he'll improve in that offense when he has a full year in it.  Fair points about it all, but like I said before that tier is what I call the "upside" tier if you choose to go that route.  The ones I have ranked ahead, Golladay, Diggs, Amari, Corey Davis, Arob are the upside ones while the others below are a little safer I'd say.  It's a pick your flavor tier honestly and I choose to go for upside there.  And I honestly hated to put Jeffery in that spot, but the Eagles have been pretty miserable in general all year I just can't imagine them being horrible 2 years in a row.  And lastly to address Hilton and Sanders, I simply trust them.  Luck is back in business as a top QB and Hilton is the only piece to catch passes other than Ebron, I expect another WR to come in, but that only helps.  He's still got it at a younger age than Julio and AB which is why he's the start of a new tier.  Sanders I didn't move after his injury, but Sutton isn't a guy I'm particularly high on so I don't see him as a problem.  Might be fair to move him near the bottom of this list though.  

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28 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Mike Williams is a glorified Josh Doctson.  He might be the default #2 WR on that team next year, but he's still going to be 4th at best option with Hunter Henry back and whatever RB they choose to move forward with, Melvin being on 5th year option which I don't think they've initiated that yet.  Either way, I don't see a big role for him moving forward and I was never a big fan of his in the first place.  That's why he's the start of a new tier for me.  Just didn't make the cut in the tier above where there are guys I really like that I would rather take.  

 

I couldn't disagree more with your assessment of his talent or situation, but I appreciate the thoughts and follow-up at least.  It takes balls and time to put your thoughts and rankings out there, much appreciated.

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