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kyoun1e

I'm Starting L. Jackson Over ________.

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Thought this would be a useful thread. For many, this is the last week prior to the fantasy playoffs and in the never ending quest for upside to get over the hump, I could see owners inserting Jackson into their lineups this week.

Jackson has been flirting with QB1 numbers the last couple of weeks. The matchups have been sweet and this week's matchup @ATL is no different. ATL D is dead last in team defense DVOA checking in at 29th vs. the pass and 31st against the run. ATL D has also been generous to running QBs this year. Both ATL and BALT are top 12 in offensive pace as well.

Oddly enough, it looks like L. Jackson is being universally ranked outside of the top 12 QBs this week by so called "experts." Seems like nobody is ready to take the leap here and "brand names" are ahead of Jackson. For example, A. Rodgers in a cushy matchup vs AZ (where maybe they pound A. Jones), or C. Wentz (who has been mediocre), or T. Brady (ditto).

Personally, I'm grappling with L. Jackson vs. R. Wilson (who faces SF in a great matchup, but maybe one where they don't need to throw). My opponent (with Mahommes, Kamara, other big guns) is projected to put up  points. I'm searching for as much ceiling as possible.

What say you?

Rolling the dice with Lamar? Or sticking with a so called "safe" stud?

Thanks

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I have him in 2 leagues. In one, I need to win to get into the playoffs. I also have Cousins and Wilson. I’m probably going to play Jackson because I’m an underdog and I think I need his ceiling. In the other, I’m a big favorite and need a win and a loss by the second place team to get a bye. I’m already in the playoffs. My other QB is Watson. I’ll probably play it safe and roll with Watson there. 

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3 minutes ago, Man In The Box said:

I have him in 2 leagues. In one, I need to win to get into the playoffs. I also have Cousins and Wilson. I’m probably going to play Jackson because I’m an underdog and I think I need his ceiling. In the other, I’m a big favorite and need a win and a loss by the second place team to get a bye. I’m already in the playoffs. My other QB is Watson. I’ll probably play it safe and roll with Watson there. 

What's interesting to me is that it seems that if owners need ceiling, they go for Jackson. If they want to play it safe, the go another route. This seems to be at odds with what Jackson theoretically provides: A "safe" floor due to his rushing yardage/potential.

If that's the case, Is Jackson actually a "floor and ceiling" play here?

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19 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

What's interesting to me is that it seems that if owners need ceiling, they go for Jackson. If they want to play it safe, the go another route. This seems to be at odds with what Jackson theoretically provides: A "safe" floor due to his rushing yardage/potential.

If that's the case, Is Jackson actually a "floor and ceiling" play here?

I actually think the opposite. His high running volume and low passing volume along with possible multiple turnovers make him high floor/low ceiling.

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I have Brady, and really need to pick some points up with Fournette being out...again. I’m debating between Brady, Jackson and Prescott. Right now I can’t bring myself to start Jackson since he’s been shaky throwing it and we lose points on turnovers, and I’m afraid Prescott’s running into a buzz saw tonight.

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6 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Hes been a QB2 2 weeks in a row vs some pretty bad teams. Not sure why you would start him over RWilson or most QB1s.

I'm definitely leaning Wilson. In another league I'm currently starting Jackson over Mayfield (@HOU) and Stafford (vs LAR).

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Started Lamar Jackson last week over Big Ben / Philip Rivers and Watson / Wentz. Got the W - he did pretty well. Watson had a great game. Rivers on fire too.

Leaning Watson over Jackson and Wentz in one league this week.

Leaning Big Ben over Jackson and Rivers in another league this week.

Lamar is projected somewhere between top 15 only and top 8 this week. I'm just sensing that his passing game needs a lot of work and he has Michael Vick type of fantasy points. I'm watching closely...

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1 hour ago, cap'n grunge said:

Jackson/Winston conundrum here.

 

37 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

I'd go Winston in your case. 

same problem here.

it wouldn't surprise me to see jameis go for 300 and 3 td....it also wouldn't surprise me to see him get benched in the 2nd half after his 4th int...

have to think lamar is good for 11 for 60 on the ground and 150 passing and at least 1 total td with maybe an int.

i think atlanta although not having a good defense does have a chance to put some points up against ravens which lamar hasn't had yet so i'm not sure that is a good thing.

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4 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Hes been a QB2 2 weeks in a row vs some pretty bad teams. Not sure why you would start him over RWilson or most QB1s.

I’m sure most leagues are different but he’s scored 23 points in each of the last 2 weeks in my leagues. Both leagues are very favorable for rushing. .25 points per rush is huge. 

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7 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

He’s QB19 in ppg over the last 3 weeks in our league scoring.  What is all the fuss about?

 

.

Exactly, 19th QB in week 11 & 17th QB in week 12 in my league. He has a safe floor but his upside has been severely limited. And those were 2 games vs CINCY & OAK. I don't see the hype either.

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5 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

He’s QB19 in ppg over the last 3 weeks in our league scoring.  What is all the fuss about?

 

.

It’s his first two NFL starts and he’s won both games and put up decent enough FF stats. He goes against Atlanta who is horrible. I think the thinking is that Lamar could keep improving as he gets more comfortable and his matchup is so good this week that he could have a big breakout.

”Could” being the operative word.

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I'm facing a couple guys going tonight. Considering R. Wilson or L. Jackson. 

If after tonight I'm projected to be down, I'm going Jackson. If I'm projected to win, Wilson.

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11 hours ago, shadyridr said:

Hes been a QB2 2 weeks in a row vs some pretty bad teams. Not sure why you would start him over RWilson or most QB1s.

Not sure Wilson has a high ceiling this week. If you look at last year's matchups, he did very little. There may not be a ton of reason to air it out this week. Could be run, run, run (for both teams actually). 

BALT D has not been all that lately. Especially through the air. ATL could put some points on the board. Could force Jackson to put the pedal to the metal both via the ground and air. 

This game could indeed be a serious breakout opportunity. That said, it could be a serious breakDOWN opportunity as well. 

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I like Jackson, but you're way over thinking him vs Wilson.  He would not even be in consideration for me between the two.  Wilson is what you hope Jackson is someday, but now.

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1 hour ago, hotboyz said:

I’m debating starting him over Aaron Rodgers not sure tho 

I’m in the same boat. I think I’m rolling with Rodgers though. That Cardinal D is really bad and Rodgers seems pretty motivated right now.

So you’d better start Lamar because I suck.

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15 hours ago, cockroach said:

I like Jackson, but you're way over thinking him vs Wilson.  He would not even be in consideration for me between the two.  Wilson is what you hope Jackson is someday, but now.

Agree, but it's all about the matchup.

SEA is favored by 10. They could really take the air out of the ball if they get up big.

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11 hours ago, bucksoh said:

Jackson over Ben and Ryan.

Wow. Don't think I could sit Big Ben in prime time. Also think Ryan will have to throw in that matchup and the BALT D seems beatable through the air lately (and ATL can't run).

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Almost every QB mentioned in this thread (except Keenum lol) has outscored Jackson the last two games.

Rivers? Roethlisberger? Ryan? Seriously?

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This doesn't help L. Jackson...

 

Deion Jones - LB - Falcons

Falcons MLB Deion Jones (foot) is a "full go" for Week 13 against the Ravens.

Coach Dan Quinn said Jones "won't be on a specialized snap count" at home Sunday. It's been a few weeks coming for Atlanta's premier man up the middle, as he was close to playing the past two games against the Cowboys and Saints. Even if less than 100%, Jones' presence alone helps shore up the Falcons' leaky coverage issues against opposing running backs and tight ends. Note that this game initially opened with the Ravens as road favorites (-2), but has since swung 3.5 points in favor of the Falcons (-1.5).

Source: Jason Butt on Twitter

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3 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

Agree, but it's all about the matchup.

SEA is favored by 10. They could really take the air out of the ball if they get up big.

I don't care.  That's why I said you're over thinking.  It doesn't matter if Wilson is facing the best defense in the league or the worst.  He's light years better. 

Who is more likely to have a 3 or 4 TD game.   Wilson by a mile right?  It doesn't matter if it's a tough defense or a weak one.  It just makes no sense to even consider it.

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3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Another QB2 performance. 3 in a row

You realize he didn’t play the 3rd quarter,  right? 

Edited by Cjw_55106

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15 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

You realize he didn’t play the 3rd quarter,  right? 

Ok still put up qb2 numbers 

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3 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

Ok still put up qb2 numbers 

I’m not advocating for him either way, but I don’t know what you consider QB2 numbers. In my league, he put up 24 points last week. I’d take that every week from the quarterback position. Only scored 19 this week. I guess if you wanna criticize him for being hurt that’s your perogative.

Edited by Cjw_55106

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8 minutes ago, Cjw_55106 said:

I’m not advocating for him either way, but I don’t know what you consider QB2 numbers. In my league, he put up 24 points last week. I’d take that every week from the quarterback position. Only scored 19 this week. I guess if you wanna criticize him for being hurt that’s your perogative.

I said earlier he finished QB17 and QB19 the last two weeks. Im not criticizing him at all. Who said I was?

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While everyone is starting this guy there's another rookie qb actually putting up QB1 numbers and probably available in your ww.

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21 minutes ago, shadyridr said:

While everyone is starting this guy there's another rookie qb actually putting up QB1 numbers and probably available in your ww.

:yes:

Yeah, but then again this is the Lamaar Jackson thread

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