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RB Darrel Williams - Arizona (2 Viewers)

leftcoastheel said:
Great game today.  Yes, it ended up being a good game.

Happy to flex this kid until Damien gets back... we will see how that goes... then maybe after. Agreed

Upside is he evolves into the starter in KC, although that is unlikely.  Agreed, that is very unlikely.

Writing is on the all that a) Damien and McCoy are not long for the game. This feels like wishful thinking for this season. With this comment and the one above you're essentially hoping, in theory, for two season ending injuries. The more likeky best case scenario is Damien and McCoy battle intermittent injuries, while Darrell stays healthy, allowing Darrell to hold onto the 1b role. If Damien and McCoy are both healthy I wouldn't consider starting Darrell even as a flex.
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MMM... I didn't mean that statement as two knockout injuries, tho I a can see how my statement would have been interpreted that way. 

"Not long for the game" is not just knockout injuries, which I acknowledge are the primary way to supplant an incumbent.  Others include ... suckitude... more importantly another is just wear and tear.  We are already seeing it... right?  Will it actually play out?  Not betting the farm, but if two guys are consistently nicked up and D Will performs, yeah I can see it without McCoy and Damien having to blow out their knees.  Damien is unproven and McCoy is old.  Both are already beat up.  Not betting the farm on it but honestly I think its 50/50.  Been hating on Damien since June....

Also any other deep backfield guys in a high powered offense with these kinds of ?s ahead of them?  I mean someone else will emerge somewhere, but I know all the backfields and I'd say zero unless there is some gnarly injury to a young stud back like Saquon.

That said, D Will is a clear flex right now unless your bench is super deep. 

 
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I’m really trying to temper expectations and yesterday was one game, Detroit isn’t bad by any stretch.... but the chiefs looked a lot more like THE CHIEFS with him on the field.  Shady didn’t play badly at all but they were a little more plodding and I think Darrell or a back like him let’s them stay more diverse attack wise.  Not sure if this will manifest beyond the two minute drill but that’s what my eyes tell me

 
It was encouraging to see that Andy stuck with him giving him the goal line carries after fumbling earlier in the game. 

Let’s hope Damien stays away!

 
ATB said:
Well he’s also the passing down back so he should supplement with catching TDs too. 
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Was he always the passing down back this year? Or is this role one he took on because of injury?

Trying to piece together what his worst case scenario might be (e.g. if other backs Williams/Thompson heal/perform, do the Chiefs still use Darell in passing downs?)

 
Smack Tripper said:
I’m really trying to temper expectations and yesterday was one game, Detroit isn’t bad by any stretch.... but the chiefs looked a lot more like THE CHIEFS with him on the field.  Shady didn’t play badly at all but they were a little more plodding and I think Darrell or a back like him let’s them stay more diverse attack wise.  Not sure if this will manifest beyond the two minute drill but that’s what my eyes tell me
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Oh, so then you didn't watch the game yesterday...

 
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Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Was he always the passing down back this year? Or is this role one he took on because of injury?

Trying to piece together what his worst case scenario might be (e.g. if other backs Williams/Thompson heal/perform, do the Chiefs still use Darell in passing downs?)
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No he wasn't, it's just an injury opportunity. It's anyone's guess as to what happens when Damien is healthy again. But until then, Darrel is the passing down back who gets some extra work to give McCoy a rest as well. Reid has been quoted saying he's not going to use McCoy the way he did when they were together in Philly and that he's "just not that guy anymore," so regardless of how well McCoy plays, either Darrel or Damien or both are going to have value in this offense. 

 
Past 2 weeks in PPR heading into MNF tonight:

Shady McCoy: ~RB10

Darrel Williams: ~RB12

Good "problem" to have.

 
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rockaction said:
8 for 13 with two plunges from the one is dynamism?

That would nice -- if we redefine dynamism to mean glacial. 
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 I said the offense looked better with him in the game, maybe there's more to account for with him in, maybe its coincidence.  

He also had 3 catches for 43 yards.  I guess you watched the game so you'll tell me McCoy had 2 for 33, pretty close.  You'll also probably remind me that 23 of those yards were on a broken hook and ladder play, so I don't need to tell you that.  

 
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Smack Tripper said:
 I said the offense looked better with him in the game, maybe there's more to account for with him in, maybe its coincidence.  

He also had 3 catches for 43 yards.  I guess you watched the game so you'll tell me McCoy had 2 for 33, pretty close.  You'll also probably remind me that 23 of those yards were on a broken hook and ladder play, so I don't need to tell you that.  
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Indeed you don't, frankly.

 
rockaction said:
8 for 13 with two plunges from the one is dynamism?

That would nice -- if we redefine dynamism to mean glacial. 
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He's the short yardage back - at the $$$goal line$$$ and other situations where the D is loading the box. That is going to skew his YPC.

But even that in play, this is also an insignificant sample size you are latching to. Look at the week before and the rest of this dude's career so far. He doesn't have the short area burst to pop on tape, but he does everything else well, including excellent receiving, blocking and top end speed. That is why he's dynamic.

Plus Andy Reid has a crush on him. That's been evident since he kept him rostered on the final 53 to start last season, even though he was a UDFA rookie and the FIFTH RB on the team.

 
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LawFitz said:
He's the short yardage back - at the $$$goal line$$$ and other situations where the D is loading the box. That is going to skew his YPC.

But even that in play, this is also an insignificant sample size you are latching to. Look at the week before and the rest of this dude's career so far. He doesn't have the short area burst to pop on tape, but he does everything else well, including excellent receiving, blocking and top end speed. That is why he's dynamic.

Plus Andy Reid has a crush on him. That's been evident since he kept him rostered on the final 53 to start last season, even though he was a UDFA rookie and the FIFTH RB on the team.
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I know goal line plunges are going to cut into YPC. See: Shady yesterday from the one, too. Which sort of cuts into the "short yardage back" designation. I think it was at Reid's whim what he decided to do in that situation.

He certainly does lack short area burst, and most top-level athletes can get up to high speeds when untouched. I'm not sure about the greater point about him being quality, other than for fantasy due to the volume he'll receive in that offense. 

 
rockaction said:
I'm not sure about the greater point about him being quality, other than for fantasy due to the volume he'll receive in that offense. 
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Andy trusts Darrel and he's effective when called upon. Very much so, despite the 8 for 13 or whatever yesterday. He's also young, healthy and physically built for the job of feature RB, should Shady's health falter at any point. Demian may still lurk down the stretch, but I'll buy into that more once I hear about him actually making progress with his knee. I'm seeing nothing to indicate that yet.

I roster Shady and Darrel, and wish I could start em both. But I cannot due to other studs on my teams at RB1 (no flex). So each week, I'm going to have to sweat out this call. Shady and Darrel the last two weeks have done exactly what I thought Damien and Shady would do - both eat as fantasy low-end RB1 / high-end RB2 within the best offense in the league.

Lastly, Darrel is high quality at receiving and blocking. You don't seem to want to give him credit for that. I think you should.

 
LawFitz said:
Lastly, Darrel is high quality at receiving and blocking. You don't seem to want to give him credit for that. I think you should.
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I have them both rostered in my main league, too. I was surprised, like others, that nobody pounced with a serious bid on Darrel when waivers ran.

Sure. I'll give him credit for blocking. Sounds like the biggest distinction between he and Darwin.

 
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LawFitz said:
He's the short yardage back - at the $$$goal line$$$ and other situations where the D is loading the box. That is going to skew his YPC.

But even that in play, this is also an insignificant sample size you are latching to. Look at the week before and the rest of this dude's career so far. He doesn't have the short area burst to pop on tape, but he does everything else well, including excellent receiving, blocking and top end speed. That is why he's dynamic.

Plus Andy Reid has a crush on him. That's been evident since he kept him rostered on the final 53 to start last season, even though he was a UDFA rookie and the FIFTH RB on the team.
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I've seen this posted several times since yesterday's game.  The facts say otherwise.

According to the Data Dominator, in the last 2 weeks, Williams has had 4 carries that could be classified as "short-yardage" (2 yards or less to go).  McCoy has had 6.  Williams has gained 2 first downs (both TDs), while McCoy has gained 3 FD, with two being TDs. 

Other than recency bias, there's nothing to suggest that Williams is any more the short yardage back then McCoy is.  Similar usage (slightly more for McCoy) and similar success rate (slightly higher for Williams).

Do you have any other support for  your belief that Williams is the short yardage/goal line back?

 
Bayhawks said:
I've seen this posted several times since yesterday's game.  The facts say otherwise.

According to the Data Dominator, in the last 2 weeks, Williams has had 4 carries that could be classified as "short-yardage" (2 yards or less to go).  McCoy has had 6.  Williams has gained 2 first downs (both TDs), while McCoy has gained 3 FD, with two being TDs. 

Other than recency bias, there's nothing to suggest that Williams is any more the short yardage back then McCoy is.  Similar usage (slightly more for McCoy) and similar success rate (slightly higher for Williams).

Do you have any other support for  your belief that Williams is the short yardage/goal line back?
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Eye test only. Willing to accept being corrected. What does Data Dominator say when you adjust to 3 yards or less to go? And how about 4 yards or less? Similar outcome? Curious.

Small sample size issue still holds true, regardless. Darrel went 9 for 62 the week prior. He avg'd 3.4 YPC last season, but that was on just 13 carries, as an UDFA rookie. We're not anywhere close to being able to decide whether or not this guy's a jag, at least not statistically speaking. My eyes tell me his is one in terms of short area burst, but not at all in other very significant facets (power, receiving, blocking). Not sure yet about vision. That critical element is still TBD for me.

Andy likes him when many of you don't. For now, I side with red walrus.

 
LawFitz said:
Andy likes him when many of you don't. For now, I side with red walrus.
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It seems like you are being selective here.  "Andy likes him?"  Over the last two weeks, Andy still gave more touches to McCoy (who was dinged up 1 of those weeks), who was more productive with those touches.  Based on the idea of siding with the red walrus, shouldn't we be backing McCoy, vs Williams?

 
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LawFitz said:
Eye test only. Willing to accept being corrected. What does Data Dominator say when you adjust to 3 yards or less to go? And how about 4 yards or less? Similar outcome? Curious.
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3 yards and less to go=McCoy 7 carries, Williams 6.  3 first downs for each RB, 2 TDs for each RB.

4 yards and less to go=same numbers as above.

 
Bayhawks said:
It seems like you are being selective here.  "Andy likes him?"  Over the last two weeks, Andy still gave more touches to McCoy (who was dinged up 1 of those weeks), who was more productive with those touches.  Based on the idea of siding with the red walrus, shouldn't we be backing McCoy, vs Williams?
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Williams is getting all of the passing down work, which is usually the role you want in PPR fantasy. 

I'd rather have Williams in PPR. 

 
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Bayhawks said:
It seems like you are being selective here.  "Andy likes him?"  Over the last two weeks, Andy still gave more touches to McCoy (who was dinged up 1 of those weeks), who was more productive with those touches.  Based on the idea of siding with the red walrus, shouldn't we be backing McCoy, vs Williams?
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You misinterpret my point. I'm not saying Darrel is favored over McCoy. I'm saying I think -

a. He's not a JAG (but rather a near perfect fit into what walrus wants to do)

b. Most in line right now for potentially being featured should McCoy's health falter

c. Going to get his in this timeshare, even while McCoy is healthy

Could McCoy displace him entirely if the ankle improves to 100%? Sure. I hope so. I have both and have been banging the McCoy on KC is legit drum since he was signed. But from what I've seen, I don't think Andy wants to feature McCoy but rather, keep him fresh for late season by deploying RBBC.

 
rockaction said:
Sure. I'll give him credit for blocking. Sounds like the biggest distinction between he and Darwin.
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This quote was in response to me suggesting credence to this dude for blocking AND receiving. I'm rewatching the all 22 of this game right now to help me contextualize this situation beyond the Data Dominator. For anyone capable of posting it, show Darrel's catch at the end of 2nd qtr with ~18 seconds left. There are literally only two other 220+ lbs RBs in the entire league with the receiving chops to make that grab. One plays for Chuck Gruden and is a decent comp. The other is nursing a NY ankle and isn't.

Good night, FBGs.

 
LawFitz said:
This quote was in response to me suggesting credence to this dude for blocking AND receiving. I'm rewatching the all 22 of this game right now to help me contextualize this situation beyond the Data Dominator. For anyone capable of posting it, show Darrel's catch at the end of 2nd qtr with ~18 seconds left. There are literally only two other 220+ lbs RBs in the entire league with the receiving chops to make that grab. One plays for Chuck Gruden and is a decent comp. The other is nursing a NY ankle and isn't.

Good night, FBGs.
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This sounds like a job for (cue Superman theme) @SameSongNDance.

Great insight, thanks.

 
LawFitz said:
This quote was in response to me suggesting credence to this dude for blocking AND receiving. I'm rewatching the all 22 of this game right now to help me contextualize this situation beyond the Data Dominator. For anyone capable of posting it, show Darrel's catch at the end of 2nd qtr with ~18 seconds left. There are literally only two other 220+ lbs RBs in the entire league with the receiving chops to make that grab. One plays for Chuck Gruden and is a decent comp. The other is nursing a NY ankle and isn't.

Good night, FBGs.
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Had posted about it prior and why I think they'd be nuts to go away from him as their primary receiving back no matter Damien's health.

Here's the video. Great throw and catch.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000001059847/Mahomes-slings-LASER-to-Darrel-Williams-for-30-yards

 
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Bigboy10182000 said:
We have snap counts out for this week yet?
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Week two

Damien Williams 39 (52%)

LeSean McCoy 30 (40%)

Darrell Williams 5 (7%)

Darwin Thompson 4 (5%)

Week three

Darrell Williams 37 (54%)

LeSean McCoy 26 (38%)

Darwin Thompson 5 (7%)

Week Four

Darrell Williams 36 (51%)

LeSean McCoy 32 (46%)

Darwin Thompson 5 (7%)

I do think you have to keep in mind that McCoy has started the last two weeks despite not being fully healthy and that they have rested him later on in games using mostly Darrell.

From my perspective Darrell Williams beat out Carlos Hyde for this role in the offense when they traded him. McCoy is the starter and Darrell Williams is his back up who has played more than McCoy in these past two games. Thompson is an afterthought. Maybe next year.

When Damien Williams comes back I am not sure how this sorts itself out. I prefer McCoy over the other options.

 
LawFitz said:
You misinterpret my point. I'm not saying Darrel is favored over McCoy. I'm saying I think -

a. He's not a JAG (but rather a near perfect fit into what walrus wants to do)

b. Most in line right now for potentially being featured should McCoy's health falter

c. Going to get his in this timeshare, even while McCoy is healthy

Could McCoy displace him entirely if the ankle improves to 100%? Sure. I hope so. I have both and have been banging the McCoy on KC is legit drum since he was signed. But from what I've seen, I don't think Andy wants to feature McCoy but rather, keep him fresh for late season by deploying RBBC.
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OK; that all makes sense. I DID misinterpret your point.  

 
Biabreakable said:
Week two

Damien Williams 39 (52%)

LeSean McCoy 30 (40%)

Darrell Williams 5 (7%)

Darwin Thompson 4 (5%)

Week three

Darrell Williams 37 (54%)

LeSean McCoy 26 (38%)

Darwin Thompson 5 (7%)

Week Four

Darrell Williams 36 (51%)

LeSean McCoy 32 (46%)

Darwin Thompson 5 (7%)

I do think you have to keep in mind that McCoy has started the last two weeks despite not being fully healthy and that they have rested him later on in games using mostly Darrell.

From my perspective Darrell Williams beat out Carlos Hyde for this role in the offense when they traded him. McCoy is the starter and Darrell Williams is his back up who has played more than McCoy in these past two games. Thompson is an afterthought. Maybe next year.

When Damien Williams comes back I am not sure how this sorts itself out. I prefer McCoy over the other options.
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Not sure what the significance is of the bolded when McCoy has consistently played the second-most snaps through 4 weeks.

It's not always true of course, but generally the guy on the field the most has the most fantasy value.

 
1. Has anyone heard anything about Damian Williams injury? I know it’s “knee” but I don’t recall seeing a single update.

2. Is it possible DWill gets Wally Pipp’d for DWill? 

Like many with Darrell, I’m talking it week to week. He happened to win this week for me though.  :pickle:

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
1. Has anyone heard anything about Damian Williams injury? I know it’s “knee” but I don’t recall seeing a single update.

2. Is it possible DWill gets Wally Pipp’d for DWill? 

Like many with Darrell, I’m talking it week to week. He happened to win this week for me though.  :pickle:
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Same here. If not for Darrel I lose to James Conner on MNF. thank you Darrel. 

 
davearm said:
Not sure what the significance is of the bolded when McCoy has consistently played the second-most snaps through 4 weeks.

It's not always true of course, but generally the guy on the field the most has the most fantasy value.
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It matters because if McCoy is fully healthy he won't be rested as quickly.

 
LawFitz said:
For anyone capable of posting it, show Darrel's catch at the end of 2nd qtr with ~18 seconds left. There are literally only two other 220+ lbs RBs in the entire league with the receiving chops to make that grab. One plays for Chuck Gruden and is a decent comp. The other is nursing a NY ankle and isn't.
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Add Jaylen Samuels and Le'veon to this list. Maybe Gurley too, though I don't recall him making downfield grabs like that one.

 
davearm said:
His usage hasn't changed since he tweaked his ankle.
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Are you sure?

week 1-6 4th quarter touches

week 2-6 4th quarter touches (initial ankle injury)

week 3-0 4th quarter touches (re-tweaked ankle)

week 4-3 4th quarter touches

So, he went from 12 touches (average of 6/game) before he hurt his ankle to 3 touches (average of 1.5/game) after. 

While we can try to deduce why the usage has changed (His ankle gets worse as the game goes on, Reid doesn't trust him, Reid does trust Darrell, Reid wants to preserve McCoy, McCoy is old and can't handle 4th quarter touches, isn't the 2-minute offense back, etc), we can't logically say his usage hasn't changed since his ankle injury.  It obviously has, with regards to his 4th quarter work. 

 
Bayhawks said:
Are you sure?

week 1-6 4th quarter touches

week 2-6 4th quarter touches (initial ankle injury)

week 3-0 4th quarter touches (re-tweaked ankle)

week 4-3 4th quarter touches

So, he went from 12 touches (average of 6/game) before he hurt his ankle to 3 touches (average of 1.5/game) after. 

While we can try to deduce why the usage has changed (His ankle gets worse as the game goes on, Reid doesn't trust him, Reid does trust Darrell, Reid wants to preserve McCoy, McCoy is old and can't handle 4th quarter touches, isn't the 2-minute offense back, etc), we can't logically say his usage hasn't changed since his ankle injury.  It obviously has, with regards to his 4th quarter work. 
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I would think 4th Q touches is most highly dependent upon and sensitive to game script, as opposed  to the variables you listed.

Not to say the variables you listed aren't good ones to consider, just that I think whether the team is ahead or not, and by how much, is really going to dictate the usage more than anything else.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
I would think 4th Q touches is most highly dependent upon and sensitive to game script, as opposed  to the variables you listed.

Not to say the variables you listed aren't good ones to consider, just that I think whether the team is ahead or not, and by how much, is really going to dictate the usage more than anything else.
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Good point; in the 3 games since his ankle was injured, he has just 3 4th quarter snaps.  In two of those games, KC was up by double digits when McCoy got his last touch.  In the most recent game, it was a back and forth, 1 score game.  There's not a constant variable, as far as game script, score, etc. 

Again, I'm not saying that the injury is or is not why his usage has changed, only pointing out that the statement "his usage hasn't changed since he hurt his ankle" is a false statement.

 
Bayhawks said:
Are you sure?

week 1-6 4th quarter touches

week 2-6 4th quarter touches (initial ankle injury)

week 3-0 4th quarter touches (re-tweaked ankle)

week 4-3 4th quarter touches

So, he went from 12 touches (average of 6/game) before he hurt his ankle to 3 touches (average of 1.5/game) after. 

While we can try to deduce why the usage has changed (His ankle gets worse as the game goes on, Reid doesn't trust him, Reid does trust Darrell, Reid wants to preserve McCoy, McCoy is old and can't handle 4th quarter touches, isn't the 2-minute offense back, etc), we can't logically say his usage hasn't changed since his ankle injury.  It obviously has, with regards to his 4th quarter work. 
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Not sure what the significance of the 4th quarter is.

Snap percentages, by week: 29, 41, 38, 46

Rushing attempts, by week: 10, 11, 8, 11

Targets, by week: 1, 3, 3, 4

Rush+target: 11, 14, 11, 15

Pretty consistent usage.

 
Bayhawks said:
I'd say Mixon, too.
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Saquan

Jacobs

Le'veon

Gurley

David Johnson

Mixon

If Darrel Williams can be even a homeless man's version of this group, Andy Reid will turn him into a fantasy RB1 and league winner, should the RBBC seas part at some point this season.

 
LawFitz said:
Saquan

Jacobs

Le'veon

Gurley

David Johnson

Mixon

If Darrel Williams can be even a homeless man's version of this group, Andy Reid will turn him into a fantasy RB1 and league winner, should the RBBC seas part at some point this season.
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At first I thought you guys were comparing him to other backs you might like to own in fantasy this year.  I was thinking I might rather have Darrel than Mixon until the dumpster fire raging in CIN can be estinguished....

 
Week one

Damien Williams 45 (66%) 13 rushing attempts 26 yards 6 targets 6 receptions 39 yards
LeSean McCoy 20 (29%) 10 rush attempts 81 yards 1 target 1 reception 12 yards
Darwin Thompson 2 (3%) 1 rush attempt 3 yards

Week two

Damien Williams 39 (52%) 9 rush attempts 8 yards 5 targets 3 receptions 48 yards

LeSean McCoy 30 (40%) 11 rush attempts 23 yards 3 targets 3 receptions 0 yards

Darrell Williams 5 (7%) 

Darwin Thompson 4 (5%) 1 rush attempt 1 yard

Week three

Darrell Williams 37 (54%) 9 rush attempts 62 yards 5 targets 5 receptions 47 yards

LeSean McCoy 26 (38%) 8 rush attempts 54 yards 1 TD 3 targets 3 receptions 26 yards 1 TD

Darwin Thompson 5 (7%) 3 rush attempts 8 yards 

Week Four

Darrell Williams 36 (51%) 8 rush attempts 13 yards 4 targets 3 receptions 43 yards

LeSean McCoy 32 (46%) 11 rush 56 yards 1 TD 4 targets 2 receptions 33 yards

Darwin Thompson 5 (7%)

Total utility per snap

Darrell Williams 78 snaps 26 opportunities .33 opportunities per snap
LeSean McCoy 99 snaps 40 opportunities .40 opportunities per snap
Damien Williams 84 snaps 33 opportunities .39 opportunities per snap

Darrell Williams 165 yards 2.1 yards per snap 6.3 yards per opportunity
LeSean McCoy 285 yards 2.9 yards per snap 7.1 yards per opportunity
Damien Williams 121 yards 1.4 yards per snap 3.6 yards per opportunity

Despite being injured McCoy has outperformed the competition in any way you may want to measure. He is doing so with fewer receptions than the Williams as well.

Spin however you wish based on who is on your roster. 

 
LawFitz said:
Great post until this part. Everyone always so passively hostile around here (myself included, at times - trying to be better).

Here's my spin as a Shady and DarWill owner...

Your sample size is too small to conclude anything. I'll use my eyes instead. For now.
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Its been 4 weeks. A quarter of the season and enough to courageously make projections from. 

While I agree the sample size is too small,  if you wait the season will be over by the time you have one large enough.

 
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Bayhawks said:
I'd say Mixon, too.
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Based on what?

Mixon's career aDoT is 0.2 and he has never caught a pass more than 10 yards downfield.

Williams had 3 times more air yards on that single catch than Mixon did in the entirety of last season combined (9 yards).

It's like the less Mixon does, the more his legend grows.

 
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