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RB Darrel Williams - Arizona (1 Viewer)

davearm said:
Not sure what the significance of the 4th quarter is.

Snap percentages, by week: 29, 41, 38, 46

Rushing attempts, by week: 10, 11, 8, 11

Targets, by week: 1, 3, 3, 4

Rush+target: 11, 14, 11, 15

Pretty consistent usage.
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You’re not sure what the significance of the 4th quarter is?  Since the ankle injury, his usage in the 4th quarter has drastically changed.  This series of posts is a response to your claim that his usage hasn’t changed since the injury.

Again, it could be purely coincidence; but it could also be that he’s getting shot up & the shot is wearing off late in the game, or it could be that Reid is worried about aggravating the ankle & doesn’t want to over-use him, so he’s pulling him late in games, or it could be that Reid is completely enamored with Darrell & is phasing him in.  We aren’t privy to enough info to make that determination, but his usage has very clearly changed since the injury.  Those snap %’s, touches/targets, etc are pretty similar, except before the injury, they were compiled over 4 quarters.  Since the injury, they’ve been largely compiled in just the 1st 3.  Possibly (probably?) coincidence, but we can’t say his usage hasn’t changed, because it has.

 
Add his age, McCoy will be on a pitch count.  Reid would be stupid to give McCoy a full load. Guys named Williams will get touches in this offense.  I also think both Williams are better receivers, as well...

 
Biabreakable said:
Its been 4 weeks. A quarter of the season and enough to courageously make projections from. 

While I agree the sample size is too small,  if you wait the season will be over by the time you have one large enough.
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Actually, it's only been two weeks for the Darrel Williams part of this experiment.

And this part of your original post is where I'm like, whoa, let's hold off on crowning anyone just yet!...

Despite being injured McCoy has outperformed the competition in any way you may want to measure. He is doing so with fewer receptions than the Williams as well.
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McCoy has been better. But it's been two games. The first two meaningful games of Darrel's NFL career in terms of role and playing time, I might add.

 
Bayhawks said:
You’re not sure what the significance of the 4th quarter is?  Since the ankle injury, his usage in the 4th quarter has drastically changed.  This series of posts is a response to your claim that his usage hasn’t changed since the injury.

Again, it could be purely coincidence; but it could also be that he’s getting shot up & the shot is wearing off late in the game, or it could be that Reid is worried about aggravating the ankle & doesn’t want to over-use him, so he’s pulling him late in games, or it could be that Reid is completely enamored with Darrell & is phasing him in.  We aren’t privy to enough info to make that determination, but his usage has very clearly changed since the injury.  Those snap %’s, touches/targets, etc are pretty similar, except before the injury, they were compiled over 4 quarters.  Since the injury, they’ve been largely compiled in just the 1st 3.  Possibly (probably?) coincidence, but we can’t say his usage hasn’t changed, because it has.
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Yards and TDs count the same in all four quarters, so no, I'm not sure what the significance is.

McCoy has gotten ~40% of snaps and 10-15 touches in all four games.  Seems pretty clear that's the usage level Reid and the Chiefs are shooting for here.

 
davearm said:
Yards and TDs count the same in all four quarters, so no, I'm not sure what the significance is.

McCoy has gotten ~40% of snaps and 10-15 touches in all four games.  Seems pretty clear that's the usage level Reid and the Chiefs are shooting for here.
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You didn’t say “his yards and TDS haven’t changed since the injury,” you said his usage hasn’t changed.  He’s being used more early in games, and less in the 4th quarter.  That’s a change.  

As far as your assumption about Reid/Chiefs usage level goals; you’re ignoring context.  One game was after being in KC for just over a week & likely not 100% on the playbook.  That would have artificially declined his snaps/touches.  In two of those games, he injured his ankle/tweaked his ankle in the 3rd/4th quarter & didn’t finish the game.  It’s logical to assume that he’d have gotten more usage if he hadn’t been dinged. It’s entirely reasonable to assume if the context of those 3 games were different, he’d have gotten more snaps/touches.  Then your theory about Reid wanting him to get 40% of snaps & 10-15 touches would look like what it likely is: correlation without causation.

 
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Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
We need a "news only" thread and a "discussion" thread for each player.
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Where would we go if we want to discuss the news?

This is one of the most enigmatic RBBC situations going this year. I am thoroughly perplexed at how to valuate any of these guys going forward, let alone Darrel.

I just know I'll be on the edge of my seat watching this play out -- and looking to start Darrel Williams if it's only him and another back in the game wherever I can until the winds shift.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Where would we go if we want to discuss the news?

This is one of the most enigmatic RBBC situations going this year. I am thoroughly perplexed at how to valuate any of these guys going forward, let alone Darrel.

I just know I'll be on the edge of my seat watching this play out -- and looking to start Darrel Williams if it's only him and another back in the game wherever I can until the winds shift.
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I was half joking. I agree it is a very interesting situation. Just some of the takes, long winded as they are, I'd you're just popping in and out of the thread, they can be a bit much.

 
Bayhawks said:
You didn’t say “his yards and TDS haven’t changed since the injury,” you said his usage hasn’t changed.  He’s being used more early in games, and less in the 4th quarter.  That’s a change.  

As far as your assumption about Reid/Chiefs usage level goals; you’re ignoring context.  One game was after being in KC for just over a week & likely not 100% on the playbook.  That would have artificially declined his snaps/touches.  In two of those games, he injured his ankle/tweaked his ankle in the 3rd/4th quarter & didn’t finish the game.  It’s logical to assume that he’d have gotten more usage if he hadn’t been dinged. It’s entirely reasonable to assume if the context of those 3 games were different, he’d have gotten more snaps/touches.  Then your theory about Reid wanting him to get 40% of snaps & 10-15 touches would look like what it likely is: correlation without causation.
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So his snaps and touches haven't changed.  Glad we agree.  That's how I define usage.  Any other definition is exceedingly pedantic.

 
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Should be interesting to see if/how things change when Damien gets healthy.

My probably-oversimplified theory is that the two Williamses are competing for one role, and McCoy is locked into his own role.  That's how the first four weeks have gone, anyway.

 
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LawFitz said:
Actually, it's only been two weeks for the Darrel Williams part of this experiment.
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It has been 4 weeks and a whole career for McCoy that I am considering here.

Darrell only having two games is true and further reason for me to doubt that he will be a permanent part of the KC rotation. He wasn't even active week one.

And this part of your original post is where I'm like, whoa, let's hold off on crowning anyone just yet!...

McCoy has been better. But it's been two games. The first two meaningful games of Darrel's NFL career in terms of role and playing time, I might add.
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There is where we see things differently. McCoy has been better for his entire career than either WIlliams and still is.

 
Biabreakable said:
It has been 4 weeks and a whole career for McCoy that I am considering here.

...

There is where we see things differently. McCoy has been better for his entire career than either WIlliams and still is.
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Adrian Peterson had a whole career over Alvin Kamara going in the early weeks of 2017.

The point is not that Darrel Williams will end up like Kamara. The point is that most of the time, to take advantage of a luck-out league winner off of waivers, you have to pull the trigger before it's a sure thing.

 
One one hand, Darrel had a costly fumble last game. On the other hand, he scored twice afterwards.

On one hand, he netted 13 yards and averaged 1.6 ypc last week to Shady's 56 and 5.1 ypc. On the other hand, he out-touched Shady 8-4 in the second half when DET was very much in the game.

On one hand, he's being used in the passing game with 4 targets going 3/43 last week. On the other hand, so is Shady (4/2/33 in the same game).

On one hand, Darrel looks far and away the best backup. On the other hand, Damien Williams seemed to have just as productive game in Week 1 prior to getting injured.

Really going to be interesting to see how this all plays out, I am completely perplexed.

On one hand, we might have a league winner in Darrel. On the other hand, I might drop him for better usable depth as Shady and Damien heal completely.

Honestly feels like it go either way with the same probability. Desperately hoping for the former, terrified it could just as easily be the latter.

 
I think the upside is too high to drop.  Mccoy has been battling through injury, bad ankle, I think?  There's a world where Darrel leads the team in touches for a week or 2.  

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
One one hand, Darrel had a costly fumble last game. On the other hand, he scored twice afterwards.

On one hand, he netted 13 yards and averaged 1.6 ypc last week to Shady's 56 and 5.1 ypc. On the other hand, he out-touched Shady 8-4 in the second half when DET was very much in the game.

On one hand, he's being used in the passing game with 4 targets going 3/43 last week. On the other hand, so is Shady (4/2/33 in the same game).

On one hand, Darrel looks far and away the best backup. On the other hand, Damien Williams seemed to have just as productive game in Week 1 prior to getting injured.

Really going to be interesting to see how this all plays out, I am completely perplexed.

On one hand, we might have a league winner in Darrel. On the other hand, I might drop him for better usable depth as Shady and Damien heal completely.

Honestly feels like it go either way with the same probability. Desperately hoping for the former, terrified it could just as easily be the latter.
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This. All of this. Darrel's ROS outlook is as wide as can be. From worthless to league winner. All of it is within reason.

Still waiting to hear a medical update on Demian's knee. Does anybody else think it's curious (suspicious?) that we're now two full weeks out from the injury without a single medical update or even limited practice? Do we know yet if he's practicing today?

 
LawFitz said:
This. All of this. Darrel's ROS outlook is as wide as can be. From worthless to league winner. All of it is within reason.

Still waiting to hear a medical update on Demian's knee. Does anybody else think it's curious (suspicious?) that we're now two full weeks out from the injury without a single medical update or even limited practice? Do we know yet if he's practicing today?
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He's practicing today

 
LawFitz said:
This. All of this. Darrel's ROS outlook is as wide as can be. From worthless to league winner. All of it is within reason.

Still waiting to hear a medical update on Demian's knee. Does anybody else think it's curious (suspicious?) that we're now two full weeks out from the injury without a single medical update or even limited practice? Do we know yet if he's practicing today?
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Reid confirms both Damien and Tyreek will practice today. 

 
From the Walrus' mouth, re: why Darrel over Shady at the end of last week:

“We have confidence in all those guys. If one guy gets a little tired, we can rotate the other guy in. Obviously, Darrel is a *little* more familiar with the protections, just having done them all for the time that he has, and they’re different from what LeSean had done in Philly. He’s getting caught up in that area, so that’s part of it. *Most* of it comes down to trying to keep the guys in a rotation and keep them *fresh*. That’s what we really try to do.”
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https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/01/why-did-kansas-city-chiefs-opt-to-use-darrel-williams-in-game-winning-drive-vs-lions/

 
LawFitz said:
From the Walrus' mouth, re: why Darrel over Shady at the end of last week:

https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/01/why-did-kansas-city-chiefs-opt-to-use-darrel-williams-in-game-winning-drive-vs-lions/
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So let's play the coach speak inference game:

1. Main reason for the rotation is keeping them fresh. 

Takeaway - this is going to be at least a 2-man RBBC all year, if at least two of (Demian, Shady, Darrel) are healthy. Reid is playing for December and January, not October and November.

Bonus Takeaway - while this may prevent any one of them from becoming a high-end RB1, it might also mean that two of them could be high-end RB2s.

Bonus Bonus - if it erupts into a 3-headed RBBC (and it very well might), then we are all ####ed.

2. Pass protection matters, and Shady's catching up still.

Takeaway - Duh, right. But still, this means Shady's role in the passing game, especially on known passing downs may remain limited for a few more weeks if not more.

Bonus Takeaway - This also means that if Machine Gun Darwin isn't performing well in pass pro during practice (and that means mentally filling assignments, not just doing 5000 lb squats), then he won't see the field regularly, even if two of the other three go down. In that instance the remaining member of the threesome would be loaded for glory the way Demian was to end last season.

 
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Loipz said:
I play the guy I traded Tyreek to a few weeks ago this week and I have Darrel. Gonna keep a close eye on their progress. 
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whose progress?  Tyreek isn't playing this week, and it wouldn't affect Darrel's usage anyways.

 
LawFitz said:
Bonus Takeaway - while this may prevent any one of them from becoming a high-end RB1, it might also mean that two of them could be high-end RB2s.

Bonus Takeaway - This also means that if Machine Gun Darwin isn't performing well in pass pro during practice (and that means mentally filling assignments, not just doing 5000 lb squats), then he won't see the field regularly, even if two of the other three go down. In that instance the remaining member of the threesome would be loaded for glory the way Demian was to end last season.
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Good thoughts.

In terms of the two points above, it may not be that two of them could be high-end RB2s, but really only one -- the guy they primarily use to spell Shady. Which one we have no idea right now. My only hope is that we have clarity before the game whether or not Damien will play, or be rested again this week to fully ensure healing. That way I can potentially eke one more game out of Darrel before it truly is up in the air.

As to the second point, how is Damien in pass pro? Specifically, is he as good or better than it than Darrel?

At this point trying to determine who might be the better hold if you can't hold both Williamses. If Damien is 100%, I have to think (coach-speak aside) that he has the upper hand as the more valuable "get" but these past few weeks and the way Darrel has played, who knows.

Again, this coming week (assuming Damien is 100% playing) will tell us whether Darrel is a good hold for potential flex use, or a potentially expendable lottery ticket.

 
Clear as mud this is. Now I'm going over to the McCoy and the other Williams thread (I forget which one I'm even in right now) to read or write much the same. Hopefully there will be more clarity by the weekend. I know I'm starting Shady where I have him.

 
Doug B said:
Adrian Peterson had a whole career over Alvin Kamara going in the early weeks of 2017.

The point is not that Darrel Williams will end up like Kamara. The point is that most of the time, to take advantage of a luck-out league winner off of waivers, you have to pull the trigger before it's a sure thing.
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I dont see your point as a rebuttal to my statement at all.

I am not even talking about Darrell Williams here except in relation to McCoy. Of course he is a great player to have and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. Also based on the information we have now he is a better candidate for this than Darwin Thompson or whoever else KC may have on their practice squad.

Does that mean he keeps the RB 2 role after Damien Williams is healthy? I don't know. I would suspect not considering that Darrell Williams wasn't even active week one.

Most of my comments are in response to folks here telling me that LeSean McCoy starting doesn't matter. That the player who gets the most snaps tends to be the most productive. My posts were intended to dispel those ideas.

McCoy may not get healthier as the season goes on and perhaps he has to miss games at some point this season. Damien Williams and Darrell Williams are useful players to have because of the productivity of this offense. 

I still think that LeSean McCoy is the best bet to be the most valuable RB in this offense.

The talk about Darrell Williams catch in most recent game is a nice play. He runs a circle route and even though he doesn't have much separation Mahomes puts it right on his hands anyways, he makes the catch. To me it is not nearly such an exceptional play as to vault him into elite RB receiver status. 

There is a lot of hype and excitement for a somewhat unknown player having a great game for a exciting offense. I get that. That doesn't mean that he is a better receiving option than McCoy is, as has also been stated here.

Peterson was always a poor fit for the Saints offense as well as being 3rd on the depth chart once Ingram came back from suspension. He was released from the team and went on to have a fairly good season with the Cardinals instead. I do not see the comparison at all. Are you suggesting that McCoy is washed up or something?

 
flapgreen said:
Dropping this bum
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Really? Who is on your wire that is either getting more consistent usage, has produced more or has more upside?

I have Damien and Darrell and can't see anyone on my wire that I would consider over either of them at this point. They are going to be a PITA trying to figure out each week* but there is so much upside. If either of them get hurt the other is a clear fantasy starter and if McCoy gets hurt you have to consider starting both Williamsesses's.

Who are you dropping for?

* To that point, and the argument for dropping. This week, unless one is deactivated they will probably both be on my bench in favor of Ronald Jones, which says something about how muddy, and difficult the KC RB situation can be.

 
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flapgreen said:
Dropping this bum
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You can drop him because you think he will sit behind Damien in the depth chart and not get a chance.

You can drop him because you think this will be an 3-way RBBC that ruins the value of all of them.

You can drop him because you think there are better options on the wire.

But I am not sure you can call him a bum.

Seems like's he's done just as well as any other Chiefs back this year.

 
Based on the comments alone, I have to keep checking to see if I'm in the Damien Williams thread, the Darrel Williams thread, or the Darwin Thompson thread. 

As of now, I have yet to search for the Darwin Williams thread or the Damien Thompson thread. I have, however, scoured the practice reports for updates on Darrel Thompson.

 
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Chaka said:
Who are you dropping for?
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I will be dropping him for a WR this week. It's either him or Peyton Barber.

I recognize Darrel's home run potential, but he needs TWO injuries for that to happen, and he needs ONE injury to be a startable flex player.

At least Barber is nominally a starter. I'd rather bet on one injury in Tampa Bay than bet on 2 injuries in KC.

 
[scooter] said:
I will be dropping him for a WR this week. It's either him or Peyton Barber.

I recognize Darrel's home run potential, but he needs TWO injuries for that to happen, and he needs ONE injury to be a startable flex player.

At least Barber is nominally a starter. I'd rather bet on one injury in Tampa Bay than bet on 2 injuries in KC.
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Why does he need two injuries? McCoy has been healthy and starting and Darrell has produced as a high-end #2, or #1 RB depending on your league.

Barber has gotten tons of opportunities and barely produced low end #2 RB numbers, if that. Why would you expect him to do more than he has with the a who lot more opportunities than Williams has ever gotten?

Barber is what he is. If you're dropping Darrell, fine but drop Barber also and grab Ronald Jones.

Barber is the definition of JAG, and that's on a good day.

 
Peyton Barber has played in four games has 58 touches for 208 yards and 2 TDs. Darrell has played in two games 25 touches over two games, 165 yards and 2 TDs.

Barber has shown what he is and appears that he is being supplanted by Ronald Jones. Williams is in a muddy backfield and probably requires an injury to be relevant (we'll find out this weekend). Barber only requires one injury to get significant touches but he has had volume in the past and done very little. He could get 30 touches/game and not outproduce a 12-15 touches to a RB in the KC offense.

Sorry, but Barber is a "safe play" who is effectively unstartable unless you are so desperate that Barber isn't going to save you so you'd end up starting Darrell over him because he clearly has the kind of upside you would need to save your season when guys like Barber becomes a consideration.

 
Chaka said:
Why does he need two injuries? McCoy has been healthy and starting and Darrell has produced as a high-end #2, or #1 RB depending on your league.

Barber has gotten tons of opportunities and barely produced low end #2 RB numbers, if that. Why would you expect him to do more than he has with the a who lot more opportunities than Williams has ever gotten?

Barber is what he is. If you're dropping Darrell, fine but drop Barber also and grab Ronald Jones.

Barber is the definition of JAG, and that's on a good day.
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I agree that Barber is JAG, but he's a startable flex player right now, and he'd presumably be a high-end #2 if Jones got injured.

Meanwhile, all signs are pointing to the unfortunate reality that Darrel Williams is nothing right now.

Darrel needs one injury to be startable. He needs two injuries to be a stud.

Darrel Williams is owned in 72.8% of MFL leagues, putting him in the same range as Malcolm Brown, Raheem Mostert and Tony Pollard (3 other lottery tickets dependent upon injuries).

Until another KC RB gets injured, Darrel is no different than any other 3rd-string RB on a top-level team. He's a lottery ticket, nothing more.

 
[scooter] said:
Until another KC RB gets injured, Darrel is no different than any other 3rd-string RB on a top-level team. He's a lottery ticket, nothing more.
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I unfortunately think this is the right take, though I am desperately holding out hope we either a) hear before the weekend games that either Damien or Shady are limited in practice through the week/struggling to be 100% for gametime or b) see this weekend that Darrel is still very much involved.

Best case scenario is a) as I think it means we can actually give Darrel consideration as a flex start. But likelihood of that seems excruciatingly low.

More likely is b) that we simply bench Darrel and see how the carries play out and how both Shady and Damien look, and decide whether to hold him as a lotto ticket if you can or shed him for usable flex value if you need to.

 
[scooter] said:
I agree that Barber is JAG, but he's a startable flex player right now, and he'd presumably be a high-end #2 if Jones got injured.

Meanwhile, all signs are pointing to the unfortunate reality that Darrel Williams is nothing right now.

Darrel needs one injury to be startable. He needs two injuries to be a stud.

Darrel Williams is owned in 72.8% of MFL leagues, putting him in the same range as Malcolm Brown, Raheem Mostert and Tony Pollard (3 other lottery tickets dependent upon injuries).

Until another KC RB gets injured, Darrel is no different than any other 3rd-string RB on a top-level team. He's a lottery ticket, nothing more.
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Williams was a startable RB1/2 and may be again this week. He may or may not need an injury in front of him to remain relevant, and the durability of the two in front of him is highly suspect. But his upside is abclear #1/2 RB with only one injury and higher with two.

We've seen Barber without Jones and he was barely a flex. Why is he startable now with Jones star on the rise? And is there any argument for having even high end #2 RB production, under any circumstances?

Like I said, if you need Barber you're going to go with someone who actually has upside. Barber's floor is too low and his ceiling is mediocre.

 
Chaka said:
Williams was a startable RB1/2 and may be again this week.
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Based on what? The last two times that Damien played, Darrel was inactive (Week 1) or unused (5 snaps week 2).
 

Chaka said:
We've seen Barber without Jones and he was barely a flex.
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Barber was the #26 RB last year, and the #53 overall RB/WR/TE. In most 12-team flex leagues (2RB/2WR/1Flex), that made him a top-tier flex player.

 
[scooter] said:
Based on what? The last two times that Damien played, Darrel was inactive (Week 1) or unused (5 snaps week 2).
 
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Think you're off base.  This is a tough back field to figure out, but reality is he was very productive past two weeks 15 points followed up by 20 points.  Believe I heard a stat he as RB15 in both weeks.  So that clearly makes him a startable Rb2 past two weeks.  He also executed in the passing game and at the end of the game to finish it out - crucial.  I think it's clear Week 1 and Week 2 are not relevant at this point.   

He was a nice bye week filler for me with Bell out, but I will grant that I will not be starting Darrel if both Shady and D Will are healthy.  That said, I am not stoked about starting D Will on the two FFPC teams where I took him in the 4th.  If anyone of the three is not healthy, I think either of the remaining two is a solid flex.

Darrel has value no matter what at this point.  And he's sitting behind an old guy who is banged up and an unproven guy (in the sense of carrying a full season RB1 workload) who is banged up.

Seems like a no brainer to roster him to me.

 
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leftcoastheel said:
Darrel has value no matter what at this point.  And he's sitting behind an old guy who is banged up and an unproven guy (in the sense of carrying a full season RB1 workload) who is banged up.

Seems like a no brainer to roster him to me.
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I may drop him due to byes plus i'm struggling a bit in terms of roster space (have Mattison as a handcuff to Cook and rostering both Gore and Singletary). But otherwise I agree with this.

 
leftcoastheel said:
[scooter] said:
Based on what? The last two times that Damien played, Darrel was inactive (Week 1) or unused (5 snaps week 2).
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Think you're off base.  This is a tough back field to figure out, but reality is he was very productive past two weeks 15 points followed up by 20 points.  Believe I heard a stat he as RB15 in both weeks.  So that clearly makes him a startable Rb2 past two weeks.  He also executed in the passing game and at the end of the game to finish it out - crucial.  I think it's clear Week 1 and Week 2 are not relevant at this point.   
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Very much "yes" to the point in red. Teams shift on a dime all the time.

 
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