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rockaction

Belichick On Fourth Down

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I don't know, but it seems to me his aggressiveness on this has waned. Remember him going for it on fourth-and-two in the Indy game back in 2009 or 2010?  

Does anybody have numbers? I can't seem to find them. This is sort of a Hail Mary on my end, so I understand if there aren't many responses. 

Anyway, my larger point is that teams seem to be out of Riverboat Ron mode because defenses have adjusted and just stack the box with even more flyers. John Harbaugh found it out recently. 

I have no dog in this fight, and always hated as a kid to see teams go off fourth-and-two or so but it just seems like there are so many moving parts that statistics can't quantify the human element of positioning and clogging the box.  

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Belicheck is smart enough to know what his chances are based on his team that year. Back in 2007 with Moss, the went for it a lot if I recall because they knew teams couldn't stop them.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

Belicheck is smart enough to know what his chances are based on his team that year. Back in 2007 with Moss, the went for it a lot if I recall because they knew teams couldn't stop them.

That's what I was thinking. That it depends upon personnel, and not raw statistics and analytics. But I'd like to see the pure numbers on it. I just think we've seen a lot less of the analytical movement in football the past few years about fourth down even though teams are trying to adopt it. 

Belichick, of course, was ten years ahead of his time.  

 

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2 hours ago, rockaction said:

I don't know, but it seems to me his aggressiveness on this has waned. Remember him going for it on fourth-and-two in the Indy game back in 2009 or 2010?  

Does anybody have numbers? I can't seem to find them. This is sort of a Hail Mary on my end, so I understand if there aren't many responses. 

Anyway, my larger point is that teams seem to be out of Riverboat Ron mode because defenses have adjusted and just stack the box with even more flyers. John Harbaugh found it out recently. 

I have no dog in this fight, and always hated as a kid to see teams go off fourth-and-two or so but it just seems like there are so many moving parts that statistics can't quantify the human element of positioning and clogging the box.  

I actually think they got a bad spot on that play and should have converted.  The unusual thing about the play is they we're around their own 30.  I believe the call was more out of respect for Peyton Manning and had much to do with the context of the moment.

No idea if Belichick does that often these days.  I think I've seen quite a bit of non-traditional play calling recently by the Rams, Chiefs, Steelers of the league.  The two point attempts and when they're appropriate seem more prevalent than questionable 4th down conversions

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4 minutes ago, DropKick said:

I actually think they got a bad spot on that play and should have converted.  The unusual thing about the play is they we're around their own 30.  I believe the call was more out of respect for Peyton Manning and had much to do with the context of the moment.

No idea if Belichick does that often these days.  I think I've seen quite a bit of non-traditional play calling recently by the Rams, Chiefs, Steelers of the league.  The two point attempts and when they're appropriate seem more prevalent than questionable 4th down conversions

That, I think, is was what made it so memorable. But I also think Peyton had a lot to do with it. 

I also think I've seen a lot of two point conversion analytics, too. That seems to be where it's at. Once field position is settled, what to do? 

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Respect for Manning and knowledge that his D wasn’t very good that year. He knew the Colts would score if they got the ball back, so he decided it was worth it to try to keep the ball away from them.

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9 hours ago, rockaction said:

That, I think, is was what made it so memorable. But I also think Peyton had a lot to do with it. 

I also think I've seen a lot of two point conversion analytics, too. That seems to be where it's at. Once field position is settled, what to do? 

It was Manning, the patriots had some injuries on defense, and the defense been on the field the whole second half and had nothing left. It is tough just to go by generic numbers. There’s a lot of things that go into it.

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Statistically that wasn’t a bad choice (lots of analysis at the time on this point) and as noted above the replays suggest they succeeded in the conversion...but got a bad spot.

in terms of how often now, they have had limited opportunities this year as several of their losses have been blowouts

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Not related to actual football decisions but I think we are at the early stages of Belichick softening up in his old age.  

There have been some reports that he’s made actual effort to not be a negative sarcastic PIA to everyone in the Patriots building this year.  

I believe the story was that Brady complained to/about Belichick because Brady had never won some rinky dink in-house “Patriot of the Week” award (which is absolutely the most Tom Brady thing in the history of the world) and Belichick responded by making a concerted effort this year to be less of a **** so he doesn’t risk tension with the locker room. 

Also, I’ve been watching a lot of Football Life episodes lately and it’s amazing how many have a voice over by Belichick at some point.  I don’t ever remember hearing the guy talk unless it was an interview or game recording before recently.  Seems like he’s maybe loosening up a a very little bit. 

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Didn't read any of the responses, only the title, and it reminded me of that 4th down he went for and didn't make against the Colts in the 2006 AFC Title game :)

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