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BigTex

OSU Running Back Justice Hill is entering 2019 NFL Draft

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I took him in redraft but keeping expectations low, not because of the player but because of the tendencies of the organization. Since Ray Rice left, this team has driven the fantasy community nuts in terms of what should be happening with the backfield versus what actually is. How long did Alex Collins have to look better than the other parts of his committee before he was actually given more carries than them? Too long. This Ingram guy has a bit of a resume and I'm skeptical that the Ravens are going to facilitate Hill's ascendence like NO did with Kamara's.

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2 hours ago, The Man With No Name said:

Just to star this thread.

Drafted him Monday night.

Me too.  Grabbed him at 2.2 in my 10 team 10 player keeper league as Ingram handcuff and eventual successor.  Giddy up!

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50 minutes ago, habsfan said:

I took him in redraft but keeping expectations low, not because of the player but because of the tendencies of the organization. Since Ray Rice left, this team has driven the fantasy community nuts in terms of what should be happening with the backfield versus what actually is. How long did Alex Collins have to look better than the other parts of his committee before he was actually given more carries than them? Too long. This Ingram guy has a bit of a resume and I'm skeptical that the Ravens are going to facilitate Hill's ascendence like NO did with Kamara's.

Ingram's injury history should make him relevant sooner rather than later

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6 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

Ingram's injury history should make him relevant sooner rather than later

Ingram has been pretty durable the last 3 years.

His only missed time was due to suspension for PED's.

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4 hours ago, IheartGuinness said:

Anyone else sending him to the WW? With so many guys having huge games today, I'm not sure he's worth a hold.

Depends on if you are desperate.  Not really knowing what you are thin at, there is NO WAY I drop him now for some WR4-ish guy or RB3-ish guy thats likely not cracking my starting lineup. 

 Unless you seriously need help in week 2 in your starting lineup, I would hold him, and move a less explosive lotto ticket if you can.

As always, its roster and need dependent.

 If anything, today's game just gets more more excited about the possibilities if something happens to INGRAM.  (But let's be fair, it was Miami)

 

 TZM

Edited by TZMarkie
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I believe this is a player who's usage will continue to grow as the season progresses. 

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a lot of over reaction for some of these rookie backs. 

I said this in the Henderson thread and I'll say it here too...

I remember last season Chubb was dropped within the first 2 weeks in the short bench redraft league I was in. picked him up quickly. 

Situations change. Always bet on talent. TZM is right, no way I'd drop him for some wr4 or RB4. No one on the ww.has the potential Hill does. 

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He was getting snaps and touches before the game got out of hand.  I think his work load increases every week at the expense of Gus. 

I didn't draft Hill to play in September and I didn't see anything to believe he is not part of the plan.  I'm holding as planned.

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The smart people are holding on as he will be a great 2nd half play as the weather gets colder. This guy smells like a stud on the best running team in the NFL

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cant imagine why anyone would drop him based on yesterday.

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He was in on the Ravens first series that resulted in Ingram getting a TD at the goal line.  He had a 13 yard carry.  He isn’t buried.  I think his talent will allow him a breakthrough game soon

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I'm seriously having to consider dropping this guy because of my depth at RB.

I'm actively moving Michel and/or Jacobs for a WR to keep him. I think he's that dynamic but my league hasn't caught on yet and I need a DEF this week.

QRRWWTfleXDK

RBs - Elliott, Jacobs, Michel, Singletary, McCoy, M. Brown, Hill

Am I being foolish here? So this doesn't turn Assistant Coach-y, I won't list the receivers or other players, but what are you guys doing with him in general? Holding? Dropping? Is there any reason to get rid of this electric freaking dynamo?

Tell me. I'm listening.

Edited by rockaction

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On 9/9/2019 at 5:29 AM, Dr. Dan said:

TZM is right, no way I'd drop him for some wr4 or RB4. No one on the ww.has the potential Hill does. 

This is how I'm leaning right now. Get rid of a guy I bid on even. I'll take the sunk cost. I didn't think I'd get who I got on waivers at the expense I got them at. 

Update: Thanks to this thread, it's MVS going the way of WR4 dropped. Thanks for the input, guys. 

Edited by rockaction

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16 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'm seriously having to consider dropping this guy because of my depth at RB.

I'm actively moving Michel and/or Jacobs for a WR to keep him. I think he's that dynamic but my league hasn't caught on yet and I need a DEF this week.

QRRWWTfleXDK

RBs - Elliott, Jacobs, Michel, Singletary, McCoy, M. Brown, Hill

Am I being foolish here? So this doesn't turn Assistant Coach-y, I won't list the receivers or other players, but what are you guys doing with him in general. Holding? Dropping? Is there any reason to get rid of this electric freaking dynamo?

Tell me. I'm listening.

think of this way.  if Baltimore's offense is going to be good this year, he's probably in for 30%-35% of that, so a spot flex start.  he's a lottery ticket if Ingram goes down.  i'm holding all the way.

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2 minutes ago, joffer said:

think of this way.  if Baltimore's offense is going to be good this year, he's probably in for 30%-35% of that, so a spot flex start.  he's a lottery ticket if Ingram goes down.  i'm holding all the way.

Yeah, I think just reading Monday's posts led me to that conclusion and yours cemented an already undertaken action. I really did not want to cut talent, but talent and Baltimore/Jim Harbaugh RB never seem to fit just right, you know? There's been Dixon, Collins, and more, ad nauseam

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34 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I'm seriously having to consider dropping this guy because of my depth at RB.

Just my two cents, these are exactly the kind of drops I look for and pounce on in week one.

Assuming Dynasty....if it's re-draft I'm a little looser with lottery ticket types unless I had the current lottery ticket (carrying DeAngelo when you had L. Bell, for example)

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Just now, Statorama said:

Just my two cents, these are exactly the kind of drops I look for and pounce on in week one.

Assuming Dynasty....if it's re-draft I'm a little looser with lottery ticket types unless I had the current lottery ticket (carrying DeAngelo when you had L. Bell, for example)

No dynasty. Redraft solamente. That said, I read your comment in the Waiver Wire thread about this exact player and it gave me major pause. Thanks for that. 

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Someone dropped him in my redraft league and I pounced on him. I love his upside and I don't think Ingram stays healthy with as many touches as he'll be getting. 

Gus Bus I think will remain the backup even if Ingram is injured, and then it's time for Justice. 

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On 9/9/2019 at 10:38 AM, bumpman said:

He was in on the Ravens first series that resulted in Ingram getting a TD at the goal line.  He had a 13 yard carry.  He isn’t buried.  I think his talent will allow him a breakthrough game soon

I said a lot of that with Collins last year.  it took a LONG time for Collins to earn Harbaugh's trust.  

That said the game flow was so extreme it needs an asterisk for analysis.  

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14 minutes ago, TripleThreat said:

I said a lot of that with Collins last year.  it took a LONG time for Collins to earn Harbaugh's trust.  

That said the game flow was so extreme it needs an asterisk for analysis.  

Collins was never as promising as Hill. And he took a while to earn Harbaugh's trust in 2017. In 2018, he lost that trust quickly. 

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It was only a matter of time before somebody chimed in and wanted Justice, wasn't it?

"I want Justice!"

There ya go. It's done. 

Edited by rockaction

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46 minutes ago, rockaction said:

It was only a matter of time before somebody chimed in and wanted Justice, wasn't it.

"I want Justice!"

There ya go. It's done. 

Thank you! It was to easy for me. Much abliged.

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Justice Hill is vastly more talented than Gus. And that's all you really need to know.

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I’m holding for now, at least in the keeper/dynasty leagues. I still think he can go lotto route this season. I likely have to decide between him and Tevin Coleman in a short bench league. 

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39 minutes ago, icehouse said:

I’m holding for now, at least in the keeper/dynasty leagues. I still think he can go lotto route this season. I likely have to decide between him and Tevin Coleman in a short bench league. 

That's fascinating. You're holding in a keeper league after 1 game. You've got some serious balls.

Edited by Tool
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42 minutes ago, icehouse said:

I’m holding for now, at least in the keeper/dynasty leagues. I still think he can go lotto route this season. I likely have to decide between him and Tevin Coleman in a short bench league. 

be kind of silly to drop him in anything but redraft. and even then I wouldnt do it. But then again, we saw people saying Henderson was cut in their dynasty league 

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When people say "I'm holding" in a dynasty context I don't usually take that to mean that the alternative is dropping the guy...I usually assume they mean they aren't actively shopping him or trying to throw him into bigger deals, so they're holding. 

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1 hour ago, thehoch said:

Justice Hill is vastly more talented than Gus. And that's all you really need to know.

Hill is more dynamic but Gus does what he does well.  Gus is a big body running downhill.  Gus is a perfect complement to Lamar.  Teams need to defend the edges because of Lamar's speed so having a battering ram like Gus going downhill works well with Lamar's style.  Power runners have prospered when paired with a running quarterback.  If Ingram were injured, Gus and Justice will likely share snaps evenly.

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

Hill is more dynamic but Gus does what he does well.  Gus is a big body running downhill.  Gus is a perfect complement to Lamar.  Teams need to defend the edges because of Lamar's speed so having a battering ram like Gus going downhill works well with Lamar's style.  Power runners have prospered when paired with a running quarterback.  If Ingram were injured, Gus and Justice will likely share snaps evenly.

At first yes......once Hill goes off a few times, no. Gus has nothing on Hill when it comes to explosiveness. If Ingram is to go down, just watch, I bet I'm right.

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1 hour ago, thehoch said:

At first yes......once Hill goes off a few times, no. Gus has nothing on Hill when it comes to explosiveness. If Ingram is to go down, just watch, I bet I'm right.

Doubtful "a few times" will be sufficient. I bet you'll be right but I bet it takes longer than you think.

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34 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Not sure and too lazy to look. But I think Ingram has no history of being injured

Ingram was injured a bunch at the beginning of his career while with NO, right?

Yeah, but he's been pretty durable the past three. 16, 16, 12 (suspended four for league policy)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm

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On 9/9/2019 at 8:29 AM, Dr. Dan said:

a lot of over reaction for some of these rookie backs. 

I said this in the Henderson thread and I'll say it here too...

I remember last season Chubb was dropped within the first 2 weeks in the short bench redraft league I was in. picked him up quickly. 

Situations change. Always bet on talent. TZM is right, no way I'd drop him for some wr4 or RB4. No one on the ww.has the potential Hill does. 

in redraft potential only gets you so far, and you only have so many bench spots. J.Hill path to time is blocked by Ingram, and I think Gus would get some run before J.Hill would.

anyone cutting chubb last year was crazy 

anyone cutting Henderson and J.Hill in dynasty isn't doing it right.

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11 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

in redraft potential only gets you so far, and you only have so many bench spots. J.Hill path to time is blocked by Ingram, and I think Gus would get some run before J.Hill would.

anyone cutting chubb last year was crazy 

anyone cutting Henderson and J.Hill in dynasty isn't doing it right.

In dynasty, I’ll add Darwin Thompson to that short list 

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On 9/13/2019 at 9:20 PM, rockaction said:

Ingram was injured a bunch at the beginning of his career while with NO, right?

Yeah, but he's been pretty durable the past three. 16, 16, 12 (suspended four for league policy)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/I/IngrMa01.htm

Fair enough

Hasnt missed a game to injury in 3 yrs is good enough for me though

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Just now, Cowboysfan8 said:

Fair enough

Hasnt missed a game to injury in 3 yrs is good enough for me though

Yeah, pretty durable the past three for sure. I don't know why I phrased that the way I did. It was perhaps a rhetorical device or something. Regardless, not too extraordinary in the durability dept. the first few years, tight as a ship these days.

Good health willing in the future even though I have Hill. I like Ingram II. 

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14 minutes ago, rockaction said:

 

Good health willing in the future even though I have Hill. I like Ingram II. 

Same here

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I know this kid is a ‘lottery ticket’, but are people believing that Hill will get a shot this season?  

I know that an Ingram injury could give Hill an opportunity, or do people think Harbaugh will go with Edwards?

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Week 1 snaps

G Edwards RB 29 38% 17 opportunities
M Ingram RB 25 33% 14 opportunities
P Ricard FB 24 32% 1 opportunity
J Hill RB 22 29% 7 opportunities

Week 2 snaps

M Ingram RB 46 58% 15 opportunities
P Ricard FB 25 32% 1 opportunity
J Hill RB 16 20% 5 18% 3 opportunities
G Edwards RB 16 20% 3 opportunities

The main difference between week one and two is that Jackson ran 16 times instead of so many carries from Edwards.

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1 hour ago, Efritch4 said:

I know this kid is a ‘lottery ticket’, but are people believing that Hill will get a shot this season?  

I know that an Ingram injury could give Hill an opportunity, or do people think Harbaugh will go with Edwards?

I imagine Edwards would start, but Hill will get more snaps. But until Ingram gets hurt, the job is his and he has done well thus far.

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5 minutes ago, PennStater77 said:

I imagine Edwards would start, but Hill will get more snaps. But until Ingram gets hurt, the job is his and he has done well thus far.

I agree...trying to figure out if Hill is worth holding in a short bench league

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3 minutes ago, Efritch4 said:

I agree...trying to figure out if Hill is worth holding in a short bench league

Depends on other options

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

Week 1 snaps

G Edwards RB 29 38% 17 opportunities
M Ingram RB 25 33% 14 opportunities
P Ricard FB 24 32% 1 opportunity
J Hill RB 22 29% 7 opportunities

Week 2 snaps

M Ingram RB 46 58% 15 opportunities
P Ricard FB 25 32% 1 opportunity
J Hill RB 16 20% 5 18% 3 opportunities
G Edwards RB 16 20% 3 opportunities

The main difference between week one and two is that Jackson ran 16 times instead of so many carries from Edwards.

I think the difference in Edwards' carries has more to do with Baltimore having a 100 point lead in week 1 and letting Ingram rest.

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35 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think the difference in Edwards' carries has more to do with Baltimore having a 100 point lead in week 1 and letting Ingram rest.

Yeah that too.

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:27 PM, Efritch4 said:

I agree...trying to figure out if Hill is worth holding in a short bench league

Being behind Gus does he have any realistic path to relevancy this year or next barring injuries to both ahead of him? Or is hi best case being the lightning back to the thunder that gets the goalline work and probably not even until next year?

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23 minutes ago, GoBirds said:

....I’m the last one left to jump off?

I’m still holding, but I have a deep bench (9 bench spots) in that league and there’s nobody worth adding at the moment. Once byes hit, he’s next on the chopping block though if there’s a free agent worth adding. 

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