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Galileo

FanDuel Week 14

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Watching MNF and figured I would start looking over the slate.  My first reaction is that there are a lot of high price tags...can't play them all, but there are several nice looking match ups.   This could be a wild week as it seems there will be a lot of viable ways to build line ups, even in cash...tough to identify chalk.

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I am bored so I mise well do my early look.

QB: Rivers, Ben, Brees, Rodgers, Winston, Brady, L. Jackson

RB: McCaffrey, Kamara, J. Jackson (I don't like his total carries though and snap count worries me), A. Jones, Ekeler, Ingram

WR: K. Allen, D. Adams, M. Thomas, Evans, AB, JuJu, Conley (If Watkins sits), cheap GB WRs

TE: not sure who I like here have J James now to get share of Pitt passing attack

DEF: initial look had me with Arizona at home against Detroit.  

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QB seems to have a lot of good matchups and same with WR.  The hard part for me is deciding to pay up for Kamara after some down weeks.  Not sure he is worth it anymore.  I also feel like high priced WRs burn me more than help me so not sure if I want to go cheap at RB and expensive at WR.  

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8 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

QB seems to have a lot of good matchups and same with WR.  The hard part for me is deciding to pay up for Kamara after some down weeks.  Not sure he is worth it anymore.  I also feel like high priced WRs burn me more than help me so not sure if I want to go cheap at RB and expensive at WR.  

Thought the same about m.thomas after a couple down weeks.  NO doesn't seem to want to use studs the last couple weeks.  

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First initial thoughts just looking at pricing and not digging deeper:

  • SO many options.  If Gordon is out, I might lean Rivers in cash, but I also like a couple other studs and like that sub7K group of guys like Watson, Luck, Jackson, hell - maybe Allen in gpps.  
  • RB has a lot of options at first glance, but if we trust that Pitts guy, that will open it up for paying up like last week.  McCaffrey and Zeke are my favorites at the top right now.  Don't love the price for Lindsay, but he is next on the list.  Probably Miller on the cheap if we want to pay down again.   Juicy matchup, but can we trust Jones this week vs. Atl, or is somebody else going to get the passing action?  I know I bring him up a bit, but I wrote down Michel again.  Brady struggles in Miami for some reason, Miami is weak vs. the run, and he did get the majority of the carries last week.  Love the sub7K price tag.  
  • WR has a ton of studs at the top, but some are in situations where you have to question a tad how much they will be used.  My favorite top guys are probably Adams and Thomas, but Allen is way too cheap and I will probably roll him out if Gordon is out.  Can't go wrong in gpps with any of the top guys though.   Cooper, Pettis, Godwin, were the sub7K players that jumped out, but there are some surprising names in the sub6K range.  
  • probably just keep paying up at TE (especially if we use guys like Samuels/Tate/Godwin)?  So tired of this position this season.  
  • Defenses there are 3 cheap home options I am looking at - TB, Clev, and Miami.   TB has back to back home games with 10+ points now, I mentioned Brady's struggles in Miami, and we saw last week that Cam isn't opposed to chucking some ints and will be in the cold.  

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4 hours ago, smbkrypt24 said:

The hard part for me is deciding to pay up for Kamara after some down weeks.

I like Kamara as a contrarian play. I think he shreds TB.

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

We firing up the J.Samuels 4.6K bandwagon?  Looking like Conner will be missing this week in Oak... 

 

I already have him in five lineups. There's a scenario where Ridley gets more work than we assume. But at Samuel's price, he only needs a few points to justify that price. 

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39 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

My favorite top guys are probably Adams and Thomas, but Allen is way too cheap and I will probably roll him out if Gordon is out. 

I'm willing to pay up for Hopkins, Thomas and Allen this week. I think Julio Jones might destroy GB, and he will be lesser owned because he burned owners last week.

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Some week 14 GPP thoughts:

  • QB: I have plenty of tickets with the top guys like Brees, Ryan, and Rodgers. But this week has a lot of good, cheap, bad QBs who should do well. I'm starting Mullens, Keenum, and Allen on a few lineups. I think Mayfield is a good play as well.  
  • RB: I think Elliot is worth every penny, and I could argue he should be the most expensive RB over McCaffrey and Gurley this week. Tons of great, cheap RBs this week, including Adams, Samuels, Richard, and Drake. I am starting Ingram and Kamara in multiple lineups this week in what should be a big bounce back. Pairing Ingram with the Saints' D isn't a bad option.
  • WR: Love Hopkins, Thomas, Thielen, Jones, and Allen for the high priced guys. But as is the case in most weeks, there are tons of great mid to lower tier options. I am all over Diggs, Ellington, Pettis, Reynolds, Landry, and Cooper. 
  • TE: I have Kittle in a couple lineups. But I play about 15-20 lineups every week, and I can't argue that you should pay up for most TEs. Way too inconsistent. 
  • D: Love Dallas, New Orleans, Buffalo, Chargers, and Eagles. 
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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

I already have him in five lineups. There's a scenario where Ridley gets more work than we assume. But at Samuel's price, he only needs a few points to justify that price. 

For sure.  He's cheaper than Ware was last week so I guess the question is - is there a difference between the situations between Ware stepping in last week and Samuels this week?  

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

Some week 14 GPP thoughts:

  • QB: I have plenty of tickets with the top guys like Brees, Ryan, and Rodgers. But this week has a lot of good, cheap, bad QBs who should do well. I'm starting Mullens, Keenum, and Allen on a few lineups. I think Mayfield is a good play as well.  
  • RB: I think Elliot is worth every penny, and I could argue he should be the most expensive RB over McCaffrey and Gurley this week. Tons of great, cheap RBs this week, including Adams, Samuels, Richard, and Drake. I am starting Ingram and Kamara in multiple lineups this week in what should be a big bounce back. Pairing Ingram with the Saints' D isn't a bad option.
  • WR: Love Hopkins, Thomas, Thielen, Jones, and Allen for the high priced guys. But as is the case in most weeks, there are tons of great mid to lower tier options. I am all over Diggs, Ellington, Pettis, Reynolds, Landry, and Cooper. 
  • TE: I have Kittle in a couple lineups. But I play about 15-20 lineups every week, and I can't argue that you should pay up for most TEs. Way too inconsistent. 
  • 😧 Love Dallas, New Orleans, Buffalo, Chargers, and Eagles. 

Ellington's name is about the only thing I don't love in this post.  He just feels like that 9 catch for 45 yards guy on a terrible team on the road.  Dirt cheap, but I don't see the gpp upside myself.  

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15 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Ellington's name is about the only thing I don't love in this post.  He just feels like that 9 catch for 45 yards guy on a terrible team on the road.  Dirt cheap, but I don't see the gpp upside myself.  

Ellington isn't going to get 120 yards and a TD. But his floor and price make him very attractive in GPPs.

Ellington's last three weeks: 

vs Panthers: 6 catches, 52 yards, 9 targets
vs Bears: 6 catches, 28 yards, 7 targets
vs Rams: 7 catches, 35 yards, 10 targets

None of those are impressive, but 26 targets in three games makes him a good GPP play.

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

Ellington isn't going to get 120 yards and a TD. But his floor and price make him very attractive in GPPs.

 

Isn't that what you want out of a gpp guy though - the possibility of 100/1 upside and 3-4x value?  I get the targets are high, but his aDOT is a measly 3.3yds.   I thought for FD plays we would rather have the guy that can go 3 for 110 with a TD in gpps.  

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2 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Ellington isn't going to get 120 yards and a TD. But his floor and price make him very attractive in GPPs.

Ellington's last three weeks: 

vs Panthers: 6 catches, 52 yards, 9 targets
vs Bears: 6 catches, 28 yards, 7 targets
vs Rams: 7 catches, 35 yards, 10 targets

None of those are impressive, but 26 targets in three games makes him a good GPP play.

That's 8, 6, and 7 pts.  None of those would be 2x value @ $4900.  I'm not seeing the appeal.  

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My placeholder line up...

Jackson/Elliott, Lindsay, Samuels/Brown, Allen, Pettis/Njoku/Arizona

Tempting to use Allen at QB the way he is running the ball at about the same price point as Jackson.  Not sure about the 2 Steelers...hard to imagine Samuels not hitting value even if Ridley shares some of the load.  Brown and Samuels could each get their's against Oakland, but do I want to bank on that with the west coast game?  I like Allen a lot again with Gordon out.  They leaned heavily on him against Pit in a short controlled passing attack.  I could easily see that again against a worse pass defense this week. 

My knee jerk initial reaction was Arizona at D, but I am leaning towards swapping to NYG as a viable defensive choice.  They just feasted on Daniels/Chicago and now they face a decimated Redskin team down to Mark Sanchez at QB.  Skins also lost a starting guard for the rest of the year.  Mark Sanchez??  Really?  I smell another feast for the Giants.  

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7 hours ago, Galileo said:

That's 8, 6, and 7 pts.  None of those would be 2x value @ $4900.  I'm not seeing the appeal.  

If you can show me the list of guys that are guaranteed to net two times their value, then I'm interested. I'm not praising his ceiling, I am guaranteeing his floor.

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With the injury to Sanders, should Sutton become an no-brainer against the 49ers at $5600?  I was thinking so.  But, I already have the cheap flip side from that game in my placeholder line up with Pettis at $5500.   Hmmm....maybe play both and use the freed up cash to pay up at TE or QB.

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1 hour ago, Galileo said:

With the injury to Sanders, should Sutton become an no-brainer against the 49ers at $5600?  I was thinking so.  But, I already have the cheap flip side from that game in my placeholder line up with Pettis at $5500.   Hmmm....maybe play both and use the freed up cash to pay up at TE or QB.

I just don't know what to do with all these backups that are getting more and more playing time with trades and injuries.   Been hearing that Sutton will do something after the DT trade, but that hasn't happened.  Not sure he will do it when he is the only thing on the O.   I think I would rather have Pettis since he has done something in the last couple weeks, but overall, I think I would rather take stabs at the dirt cheap volume with the Pitts and SF RB backups and pay up at RB/WR.  This is what I don't like about the FD pricing - feels like all the low tier WRs are always within 200 of each other.  It's hard for me to want to take guys like Sutton in a gpp when there are WRs in the NO/TB game at the same price.  

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Sutton did put up 85 yds and a TD with 4 catches on 7 targets last week vs. the lowly Cincy D.  Sanders' 8 targets per game need to go somewhere.  Sutton is likely to pick up a couple of those.  With Lindsay in the fold, defenses have to respect the run.  I don't think Sutton is "the only thing on the O", but I get what you are saying...being the #1 guy is certainly not the same as being in the supporting role.  I think I agree with you, and if I were to choose between the 2, I think I would take Pettis as well for this week.  Right now, I also have Lindsay in my dfs line up...another reason to stick with Pettis.  Being a Sutton owner in my season long league, I have been eyeballing this stretch of games...Cin, SF, Cle, Oak...for the fantasy playoffs. I hope this is his time to come of age.  I know this isn't very relevant to the daily game, but a guy can dream.  I still think he is a solid dfs cash play for this week.   

Edited by Galileo

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46 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Sutton did put up 85 yds and a TD with 4 catches on 7 targets last week vs. the lowly Cincy D.  Sanders' 8 targets per game need to go somewhere.  Sutton is likely to pick up a couple of those.  With Lindsay in the fold, defenses have to respect the run.  I don't think Sutton is "the only thing on the O", but I get what you are saying...being the #1 guy is certainly not the same as being in the supporting role.  I think I agree with you, and if I were to choose between the 2, I think I would take Pettis as well for this week.  Right now, I also have Lindsay in my dfs line up...another reason to stick with Pettis.  Being a Sutton owner in my season long league, I have been eyeballing this stretch of games...Cin, SF, Cle, Oak...for the fantasy playoffs. I hope this is his time to come of age.  I know this isn't very relevant to the daily game, but a guy can dream.  I still think he is a solid dfs cash play for this week.   

I meant only WR, and I didn't realize he got a TD last week, so thanks for that info.  I might be biased, but it just seems like he was one of those guys that people pimp on the pods that I have tried a couple times and never seems to do much.  

I think the point remains that I don't know what to do with him.  Denver does have a higher than average Vegas total this week, so I might have to look more at him.  He might get lost in the mix with guys like Godwin/D.Jax, T.Smith, Pettis, Tate right around him, so I guess he might be a gpp option.  I think I would go elsewhere if he is showing up as pretty chalky.   Ownership %s will be interesting with these cheap options + the cheap RBs.  

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Was playing around with stud RB line ups which are totally possible with the cheap WRs.  There are several combos that allow for McCaffrey, Barkley, and Elliott in one line up.  I don't know that it is necessary to do that as there is some decent RB value also, but still fun to consider.  I noticed the line up optimizer is very bullish on Ellington as well.  I don't know that I am on board with that one, but he is another dirt cheap option.

 

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I joked about it in the DK thread, but it also applies here.  I think Jackson for LAC is worth a look in gpps if Gordon is out.  Ekler seems to be best as a change of pace guy and Jackson got some chunk yards and TD last week, Cincy is terrible.   For gpps, I am toying with the idea of throwing in 2-3 of these dirt cheap RBs and seeing what that gets.   Putting in Samuels/Wilson/Jackson/Chargers D leaves 8.1K/player.    Putting 2 of those guys + McCaffrey still leaves 7.2K/player.   Sounds fun for a cheap gpp.  

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12 hours ago, Galileo said:

Was playing around with stud RB line ups which are totally possible with the cheap WRs.  There are several combos that allow for McCaffrey, Barkley, and Elliott in one line up.  I don't know that it is necessary to do that as there is some decent RB value also, but still fun to consider.  I noticed the line up optimizer is very bullish on Ellington as well.  I don't know that I am on board with that one, but he is another dirt cheap option.

 

Is this for cash or gpp?  I THINK the popular construction might be similar to last week - 2 stud RBS + somebody like Samuels.  Throw in a cheap WR and go from there.  

Good gpp construction would be to get away from this and go 2-3 cheap RBs like I posted above, or your idea of 3 stud RBs.   After reading your post I played with it, and if I punt at TE with a NO guy and go cheap defense, I put together  - Rivers - Zeke/Barkley/Kamara - Allen/Sutton or Pettis/Ellington (Hi, Jdogg!) - Arnold - Mia.   That also looks pretty fun.   I think I keep going back to thinking I would rather have one of those cheap RBs in there instead of those cheap WRs since they should get more touches and most are on higher total teams, but that goes back to what I think is the popular build.  :wall:

 

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I don't think I'm using Golladay with Patrick Peterson covering him this week.

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Last week I gave you Pettis and he went off. This week I'm recommending Zay Jones and Lesean McCoy

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Feels like Jaylen Samuels will be very highly owned in GPPs.

So to counter that, I'm going a little cheaper and using Justin Jackson.

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1 minute ago, jdoggydogg said:

Feels like Jaylen Samuels will be very highly owned in GPPs.

So to counter that, I'm going a little cheaper and using Justin Jackson.

I really like this pivot and I'm thinking the same thing.

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8 minutes ago, Steeler said:

I really like this pivot and I'm thinking the same thing.

I do like Samuels. Just feels like Jackson could get a heavy workload vs. the terrible Cincy D.

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1 hour ago, jdoggydogg said:

Feels like Jaylen Samuels will be very highly owned in GPPs.

So to counter that, I'm going a little cheaper and using Justin Jackson.

 

1 hour ago, Steeler said:

I really like this pivot and I'm thinking the same thing.

Yep, I will third this sentiment. I almost like Wilson and Jackson more in cash too.  

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6 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

I don't think I'm using Golladay with Patrick Peterson covering him this week.

If I heard a pod right last week, I thought they said he hasn't been shadowing this year? I think it was in reference to playing Adams last week.  

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44 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

If I heard a pod right last week, I thought they said he hasn't been shadowing this year? I think it was in reference to playing Adams last week.  

Ah I see. Well, all I know is if I'm AZ, shutting down Golladay is my priority.

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11 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Is this for cash or gpp?  I THINK the popular construction might be similar to last week - 2 stud RBS + somebody like Samuels.  Throw in a cheap WR and go from there.  

I think it would have to be more for gpp with the hope of the WRs all hitting.  These RB studs offer a pretty secure floor, but there is too much risk with having all low end WRs for cash.  If one of those studs is a bust and none of the risky WRs pan out, the cash lineup would be toast.  I will likely go with something similar to what you are describing.  Use one less stud and use the savings to try and find a safer WR or two or pay for a TE

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Well, which of you geniuses went with Henry in your Thu-Sun line ups?

 

ETA: holy hell.  Look at those eyes during that run.  He looks all coked up or something.

Edited by Galileo

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I would be leading the second half 0.25 Single Game GPP on FD with ~6 minutes to go if Vrabel kicks the FG on 4th down - I have a unique roster and first place is 250.   I'm covered except for Succop so looks like I won't be winning this thing :cry:

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A non-FanDuel rant:

I crafted this dynasty team for 10 years. Curated, preserved, traded, did the research. And for what? For Derrick Freaking Henry to score 55 points against me in the playoffs. Ludicrous. Makes me want to quit this hobby.

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The only consolation with this ridiculous Henry abberation is it won't ruin the main slate.

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5 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

A non-FanDuel rant:

I crafted this dynasty team for 10 years. Curated, preserved, traded, did the research. And for what? For Derrick Freaking Henry to score 55 points against me in the playoffs. Ludicrous. Makes me want to quit this hobby.

We’re you really up against someone in your leagues playoffs that played Henry this week?  Ouch, bad luck man...

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7 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

We’re you really up against someone in your leagues playoffs that played Henry this week?  Ouch, bad luck man...

He could have picked up Jaylen Samuels. 

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I have decided to back off on the cash games this week and try to have fun with gpps.  I never do well with weeks where it feels like I have to do XYZ because of ownership.  Just going to try the FBG 2x and will treat my league LU as a cash-ish game and call it good on that front.  

As far as gpps, it looks like QB ownership could be spread out.  if anything the QBs in the Philly/Dallas game could provide a gpp dart in a big gpp.  

RB low % guys I wrote down are: Jackson, McCoy, Edwards, Michel, White.   Gus is really interesting given his volume over the last couple weeks, KCs run D, and the fact that he is projected so low.   

 

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LOL...Put $68 in last night in mostly ticket contests.  0 Henry exposure, looking at you @David Dodds

Won 36 $2.50 tickets and 9 $4.44 tickets totaling $130.  Not exactly sure how that happened.

I've eroded my bank account to $722 from $1600 but I'm sitting on 117 $4.44 tickets, 1 $250 tickets, 1 $9 ticket, and 41 $2.50 for a total of $881.

Looks like the 41 tickets will be the Chargers/Chiefs game next Thursday night so hopeful I can get in enough combos to get another WFFC ticket.

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3 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

I've eroded my bank account to $722 from $1600

I'm doing fine this year, but any week where I at least break even I feel lucky. 

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This is what I am staring at for my FBG 2x entry:

Rivers - McCaffrey/Zeke/Samuels - Allen/Godwin/Sutton - Ebron - NYG

Thoughts?

I have a feeling that I am 1 week too late for Godwin, and it is a hard choice of Kamara vs. McCaffrey.  With 200 left, I do have salary for Tate instead of Godwin and Pettis is also at that level.  My thinking is that if it is going to be that windy, Godwin would be the WR the most effected by that since he is the deep guy, right? 

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Also, a pod talked about D.Hamilton in gpps for Denver over Sutton.  Looks like he takes over the slot for Denver where Sanders did a bit of his damage and SF is weak as a team vs. slot WRs on the year.  :shrug:

 

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17 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Last thing - found it interesting that the Power Grid seemed to recommend Samuels for DK, but Jackson for FD.  

Doesn't surprise me.  I'd favor Jackson as a TD guy over Samuels pretty easily this week.  

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21 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Last thing - found it interesting that the Power Grid seemed to recommend Samuels for DK, but Jackson for FD.  

Cam is really hurt. If you’re going Moore or samuels you are relying on yac

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18 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Cam is really hurt. If you’re going Moore or samuels you are relying on yac

Think they're talking about Jaylen Samuels. I did pull Moore from some of my lineups due to the Cam news though.

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19 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Think they're talking about Jaylen Samuels. I did pull Moore from some of my lineups due to the Cam news though.

What news? Thought I just saw he didn't have an injury designation. 

And yes- was talking about the Pitts rb. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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