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Raging weasel

Draftkings Week 14

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Didn't want to clutter up the FD thread so starting this one. Just like on FD there is crazy value everywhere due to injuries.

I'm going to bypass most of the cheap RBs and try the cheap WRs who should at least get volume.

My $5 2x as of today

Rogers,Zeke,Barkley,Sutton,Humphries, Ellington,Kelce,Samuels,Dal

Also have 4   $.25 gpps for Sun and a $1 Showdown lineup for Jax/Tenn . The Showdown lineup is Fournette at mvp,both Ks,both D's, and Firkser. This leaves 8.4k on the table but these teams are so bad I didn't know which QB to take a shot on. If nothing else it will be unique.

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I like it.  I keep staring at it, and I think that is a good construction (two stud RBs, one dirt cheap guy + pay up at WR1 or TE), but still deciding between Zeke/Barkley/Kamara/McCaffrey and then do you do J.Wilson or Samuels for cheap RB?   

I haven't been good about looking at it, but one of the RG podcasts brought up the weather in the NO/TB game and how the O/U is dropping.  It feels like every time I make decision based on weather, it is the opposite of what I should have done, so also not sure what to do with that info.  

A cash LU I threw together was similar construction to yours:  Rivers - Zeke/Kamara/Wilson - Tate/Sutton/Humphries - Ertz - KC.    Not sure I like not having a "good" WR in there.  Hilton seems to torch Houst, Allen is too cheap, and I like Adams a lot as well.  This week is harder than I thought.   It's also weird how many times I land on players in the Denv/SF game when I think those teams stink for the most part. 

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As far as gpps, I THINK a construction would be to get away from that popular 2 stud RB + cheap RB build.   If I do put that construction together, I like Jackson for LAC as a pivot off Samuels/Wilson.  I will be interested in the ownership % projections on those guys.  

As far as other backs, I like the idea in theory of going back to Jones, but his price is a bit too much now with J.Williams getting those passing touches last week.  I also like the tier of Lindsay/Michel/Ingram as options to help pay up for 2 WRs instead of 2 Rbs.    OR - what could we do with putting in 2-3 of those cheap RBs in a LU and jamming in WRs?  you put in those 3 RBs and a D like KC and you have about 7.3K left for the rest of the LU.  :lol:

Something like this looks fun for gpps:  Rodgers - 3 sub 4K RBs - Brown/Adams/Hilton or Cooper - Ertz - KC.    Could also do game stacks like Rodgers/Adams/Julio, Watson/Hopkins/Hilton,  Dak/Cooper/Ertz, etc  with ease.  

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Yeah in my $.25 gpps I have 3 lineups that have either Zeke or Kamara, 2 good WR(Julio,Adams,Brown,Hill,Allen,Evans) and a bunch of cheap upside guys/cheap chalk.

ETA- in my $5 lineup I keep going back and forth between Kelce+Humphries and Hilton+Brate or Ebron. 2 of my $.25ers are basically teams I'm facing in my season long playoffs so if I get trounced I may at least get some cash back-lol.

Edited by Raging weasel
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17 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

Yeah in my $.25 gpps I have 3 lineups that have either Zeke or Kamara, 2 good WR(Julio,Adams,Brown,Hill,Allen,Evans) and a bunch of cheap upside guys/cheap chalk.

ETA- in my $5 lineup I keep going back and forth between Kelce+Humphries and Hilton+Brate or Ebron. 2 of my $.25ers are basically teams I'm facing in my season long playoffs so if I get trounced I may at least get some cash back-lol.

:thumbup:   I told a co-worker to do this approach for a FD gpp too.  

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

2 of my $.25ers are basically teams I'm facing in my season long playoffs so if I get trounced I may at least get some cash back-lol.

I do this too and think of it as insurance for my season-long leagues :lol: 

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as gpps, I THINK a construction would be to get away from that popular 2 stud RB + cheap RB build.   If I do put that construction together, I like Jackson for LAC as a pivot off Samuels/Wilson.  I will be interested in the ownership % projections on those guys.

I like the Jackson pivot as well, but I also like paying up for 2 stud RBs (at least at this point in the week).  I threw in 20 lineups into the 0.25 GPP on DK this morning with a core of CMC/Kamara/Jackson and cycled through a bunch to QB/WR stacks along with some low priced WR with high upside.  I also locked in MIA D for all of these entries - they should be low owned but NE always seems to struggle in MIA.  

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Since you guys focus on GPP mostly, I'll share my cash thoughts.

I created one without any research and purely based on value and what's likely target data.  Here it is

Lamar Jackson

Ingram, Kamara, McCaffrey

Zay Jones, Sutton, Samuel

Ebron

Cardinals

It makes me pretty nervous for a first lineup but the targets and workload should all be there.  I kind of like pairing the 2 Saints RB's because I think that game will be heavy RB usage.  It still leaves me $500 for upgrades somewhere but honestly that $500 won't do much to put my mind at ease, maybe at defense but that's a crapshoot anyways.  

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2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Since you guys focus on GPP mostly, I'll share my cash thoughts.

I created one without any research and purely based on value and what's likely target data.  Here it is

Lamar Jackson

Ingram, Kamara, McCaffrey

Zay Jones, Sutton, Samuel

Ebron

Cardinals

It makes me pretty nervous for a first lineup but the targets and workload should all be there.  I kind of like pairing the 2 Saints RB's because I think that game will be heavy RB usage.  It still leaves me $500 for upgrades somewhere but honestly that $500 won't do much to put my mind at ease, maybe at defense but that's a crapshoot anyways.  

Just my :2cents:, but I am not sure this is the week for both NO rbs in cash.  IMO there is just too much value with the sub 4K guys that everybody will be playing.  The last 3 weeks Ingram has averaged about 11 carries and 2 targets, and I could see a guy like Samuels get that workload and more at 2K less.  Not sure he is going to be S.Ware level owned this week, but I could see that Pitts RB getting 50-60% ownership in cash easily.  

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Samuels is the Free Square this week, but I can see a scenario where he gets more “3rd down” type work and Vereen gets the rest.  Current GPP for DK:

Mahomes

DJ + Wilson Jr

Conley + Gallup + DHop

Kelce

Adams

GB

A KC stack should see low ownership, and an O/U of 40.5 should keep people off DJ. Fading TB/NO w weather reports. Could probably slide away from Gallup and pivot to Gabriel if Tru plays. 

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17 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Since you guys focus on GPP mostly, I'll share my cash thoughts.

I created one without any research and purely based on value and what's likely target data.  Here it is

Lamar Jackson

Ingram, Kamara, McCaffrey

Zay Jones, Sutton, Samuel

Ebron

Cardinals

It makes me pretty nervous for a first lineup but the targets and workload should all be there.  I kind of like pairing the 2 Saints RB's because I think that game will be heavy RB usage.  It still leaves me $500 for upgrades somewhere but honestly that $500 won't do much to put my mind at ease, maybe at defense but that's a crapshoot anyways.  

I've edited my lineup and replaced Ingram with Samuels, Zay with Humphries and Cardinals with Chargers.  Still leaves me $600 but it eases my mind a bit.  The only thing left with me feeling uncomfortable is Sutton and Lamar (I'm almost comfortable with Lamar) because it's likely Sherman on Sutton all day right?  Volume will likely be there still but I'm thinking he'll be pretty much shut out.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

I've edited my lineup and replaced Ingram with Samuels, Zay with Humphries and Cardinals with Chargers.  Still leaves me $600 but it eases my mind a bit.  The only thing left with me feeling uncomfortable is Sutton and Lamar (I'm almost comfortable with Lamar) because it's likely Sherman on Sutton all day right?  Volume will likely be there still but I'm thinking he'll be pretty much shut out.  

Sherman just plays one side, I believe.  They dont shadow with him.  

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There is a great article on the FBG subscription side about the ownership %s vs what the "pro" ownership %s are.  In that it has blurps on a couple players and what they have their odds of hitting 4x are.  My question is - why isn't that info available on all the players?  I would love to see a chart of what they have the top 10 at each position in order of likelihood of hitting 4x is. 

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My buddy and I shoot lineups back and forth but I’ve been playing Fanduel and he’s been on DraftKings so I stuck $25 in. Never did much dk so I’m still eligible for beginner matches:)

$25 in

$134 out

 

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31 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

My buddy and I shoot lineups back and forth but I’ve been playing Fanduel and he’s been on DraftKings so I stuck $25 in. Never did much dk so I’m still eligible for beginner matches:)

$25 in

$134 out

 

Nice! Welcome to team DK! 

 

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5 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

$7.25 in and $11.50 out. Best score was 184+ and my cash game score was 148.64 good enough to cash.

Nice day!  I was up on both sites, but did better on DK - up $10 or so?    What was your cash LU?

I ended up with 162 in cash.  I managed to get over the bad day from Kamara and the horrible day from Godwin (why did I let myself get talked into him from the sites?  He was 50% owned too).   I had Watson - Zeke/Kamara/Samuels - HIlton/Godwin/Hamilton - Kelce - KC.   I honestly don't know how Humphries did, but most of the week I had the same LU but had Allen/Humpries in there instead of Watson/Godwin, but chickened out on Allen and got talked into Godwin.  

Best gpp was 186 and had a couple duds.  I had Rodgers - Edwards/Samuels/Wilson - Adams/Julio/Cooper - Kelce - TB

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Nice day!  I was up on both sites, but did better on DK - up $10 or so?    What was your cash LU?

I ended up with 162 in cash.  I managed to get over the bad day from Kamara and the horrible day from Godwin (why did I let myself get talked into him from the sites?  He was 50% owned too).   I had Watson - Zeke/Kamara/Samuels - HIlton/Godwin/Hamilton - Kelce - KC.   I honestly don't know how Humphries did, but most of the week I had the same LU but had Allen/Humpries in there instead of Watson/Godwin, but chickened out on Allen and got talked into Godwin.  

Best gpp was 186 and had a couple duds.  I had Rodgers - Edwards/Samuels/Wilson - Adams/Julio/Cooper - Kelce - TB

Cash was- Rogers,Zeke, Barkley,Sutton, Humphreys,Ellington,Kelce,Samuels,Dal

Best gpp- Winston,Zeke,Richard,Evans,Cooper,Brate,Samuels,Jets(184.82)

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1 hour ago, TwinTurbo said:

My best gpp was 203.22 - Brady, Jones, Ware, Edelman, Fitz, Gordon, Gronk, Cooper, Cards

And I still only won $25 from it. Otherwise a tough week.

That's a great score! 

It was a high week.  I think the top spot was 241 or so in the gpp i was in. 

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