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Dr. Dan

Darrell Henderson - LA Rams

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Posted (edited)

@Concept Coop hey I don't think we're as far apart as it might seem. Maybe a couple others are. But to answer your question, you asked is it smart to consistently reach for guys, and I would say in a vacuum, probably not. But there is such a thing as being a shark, and if you have a higher hit vs miss ratio than your peers over the course of time, then I actually think you would be doing yourself a disservice by *not* reaching for your guys. When appropriate. And taking value otherwise. I've never really been in a position to *consistently* reach, so I think that word is kind of key. The idea is to pick your spots. Which largely means picking "my guys" within certain value ranges. 

To be clear, I do not think I'm smarter than the NFL at player evaluation. Just playcalling (tongue stuck out emoji). The idea is to be better at it than your peers in your leagues. I've done fairly well. Good not great. Big predator. Non shark.

So Henderson. In my range I took him 1.04. I would not take him over either of the first 3 backs. I took him at 1.04, but I took Harry at 1.05. So I don't know what I would have done if I *only* had the 1.04. I needed RBs bad. I later flipped Harry for AJ Brown and the 2.03 where I took Singleton. *shrugs*. Last RB in my top tier. No chance he made it back to me. Versus a bunch of questions at WR. Coinflip.

ETA I meant Henderson was the last RB in the top tier when I decided to take him at 1.04. I tried to trade the 1.05 back furiously before I took Henderson but to no avail. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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I don't think I've heard any arguments against Henderson other than his size,  

I wonder how many of his detractors in this thread have seen him play?

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49 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I don't think I've heard any arguments against Henderson other than his size,  

I wonder how many of his detractors in this thread have seen him play?

Level of competition is the biggest one for me.  I like his tape but he's running through a lot of gaping holes.

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Right, a lot of his highlight runs are just straight sprints through a subway tunnel with no one around him.

That doesn't mean it's all he can do, but you don't necessarily learn much about a player on runs like that.

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Some great 3rd round RB's from years past

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

James Conner

David Johnson

Jamaal Charles

DeMarco Murray

 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, EBF said:

Right, a lot of his highlight runs are just straight sprints through a subway tunnel with no one around him.

That doesn't mean it's all he can do, but you don't necessarily learn much about a player on runs like that.

Did we learn much when he rushed for 200 yards against 10th ranked UCF?

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Just now, Dez said:

Some great 3rd round RB's from years past

Alvin Kamara

Kareem Hunt

James Conner

David Johnson

Jamaal Charles

DeMarco Murray

 

David Johnson and Hunt from that list didn't exactly play in the SEC either.  Not buying this level of competition argument.

When the Rams coaches are comparing you to Kamara....and when I see a guy destroying the competition on tape, I've got most of what I need to know.

 

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2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Did we learn much when he rushed for 200 yards against 10th ranked UCF?

10th ranked UCF who had one player drafted this year?

NCAA football is amateur football. Tevin Coleman rushed for 2036 yards in his last season at Indiana.

The number of guys who dominated on Saturdays and vanished on Sundays is massive.

Stats are relevant, but only one piece of the puzzle when trying to assess someone's NFL outlook.

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5 minutes ago, EBF said:

 

Stats are relevant, but only one piece of the puzzle when trying to assess someone's NFL outlook.

How about his superior measurables when compared to a slug like Josh Jacobs?

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I’m a huge fan of him but of course you absolutely have to factor in his level of competition. His highlights show some massive holes, some awful tackling, and some terrible angles taken. So take some of the 80 yard runs with a grain of salt.

 

But within the same highlights I also see rare burst and I think that causes some of (not all but some) of those defensive mistakes to happen. It only takes a split second for a hole to close and when he’s getting to and through the hole a split second quicker than other backs it’s to his credit sometimes that the hole is gaping. It’s even clearer to me to see that his quickness/burst causes safeties to take bad angles and often times are left flailing instead of having a shot at a tackle. Again, maybe some of those safeties suck but I can’t believe that so many safeties just happen to take a bad angle on him. Some of it has to be what he’s doing.

 

I also agree with what someone posted awhile back in response to mild criticism about his elusiveness. He hasn’t really had to show much shake and bake. He’s so decisive with his cuts and so quick to accelerate that really he just chooses a side and is gone before the defender can react. I feel very confident that if he catches a little swing pass in the flat he’s going to use his burst to leave the first defender in the dust a high percentage of the time. He does make some nice lateral cuts across the field, very reminiscent of CJ to me. With the caveat that CJ then had elite homerun speed while DH is merely has good speed. 

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8 minutes ago, Cobbler1 said:

I’m a huge fan of him but of course you absolutely have to factor in his level of competition. His highlights show some massive holes, some awful tackling, and some terrible angles taken. So take some of the 80 yard runs with a grain of salt.

Of course, I nearly ignore those runs when evaluating.  I look for runs in traffic, after contact etc.

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you point me to a model with a with a better track record, that doesn't itself take draft position into account? 

This should always be the first question people ask.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

You are hella wrong as those ranking two posts up showcase.

 

Here are some other 1st and 2nd round RBs drafted in the same time frame.  A couple others with injury histories are not included.  They must be oversights, because they seem to have the draft capital that would ensure that they would be successful in the NFL according to that theory.  Oh wait - it looks like his universe for making his determination is limited to only successful RBs.  Well, that sure does make it easier to verify his theory.

Can you figure out where these guys fit on that list?  That would be hella cool.  TIA.

 

Rashaad Penny

Ronald Jones

Kerryon Johnson

Derrick Henry

T.J. Yeldon

Ameer Abdullah

Bishop Sankey

Jeremy Hill

Carlos Hyde

Giovani Bernard

Montee Ball

Eddie Lacy

Christine Michael

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Here are some other 1st and 2nd round RBs drafted in the same time frame.  A couple others with injury histories are not included.  They must be oversights, because they seem to have the draft capital that would ensure that they would be successful in the NFL according to that theory.  Oh wait - it looks like his universe for making his determination is limited to only successful RBs.  Well, that sure does make it easier to verify his theory.

Can you figure out where these guys fit on that list?  That would be hella cool.  TIA.

 

Rashaad Penny

Ronald Jones

Kerryon Johnson

Derrick Henry

T.J. Yeldon

Ameer Abdullah

Bishop Sankey

Jeremy Hill

Carlos Hyde

Giovani Bernard

Montee Ball

Eddie Lacy

Christine Michael

 

.

Obviously this doesn't illustrate the point.

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7 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Obviously this doesn't illustrate the point.

Dont you mean it doesn't fit the narrative?

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12 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Obviously this doesn't illustrate the point.

 

literally :lol:

 

no offense intended.  Thank goodness I didn’t have a mouthful of soda

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Can someone point me to anyone in this thread claiming that backs drafted in the first or second round don't bust? 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Here are some other 1st and 2nd round RBs drafted in the same time frame.  A couple others with injury histories are not included.  They must be oversights, because they seem to have the draft capital that would ensure that they would be successful in the NFL according to that theory.  Oh wait - it looks like his universe for making his determination is limited to only successful RBs.  Well, that sure does make it easier to verify his theory.

Can you figure out where these guys fit on that list?  That would be hella cool.  TIA.

 

Rashaad Penny

Ronald Jones

Kerryon Johnson

Derrick Henry

T.J. Yeldon

Ameer Abdullah

Bishop Sankey

Jeremy Hill

Carlos Hyde

Giovani Bernard

Montee Ball

Eddie Lacy

Christine Michael

 

.

Noone said being drafted high ensures anything.  Clearly there are busts but that wasn't at all the point you were making initially with your post that linked to the paper.  Your post demonstrates nothing but the very basic premise that some RBs will bust, something noone was disputing.

Edited by Tool
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8 minutes ago, Tool said:

Noone said being drafted high ensures anything.  Clearly there are busts but that wasn't at all the point you were making initially with your post that linked to the paper.  Your post demonstrates nothing but the very basic premise that some RBs will bust, something noone was disputing.

 

So if we agree that some highly drafted RBs can be busts, then why is it unacceptable to reach a bit for a RB who was drafted lower when you believe he will be a good NFL RB if the more highly drafted RB is a guy who you consider as a greater risk to perform worse?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

So if we agree that some highly drafted RBs can be busts, then why is it unacceptable to reach a bit for a RB who was drafted lower when you believe he will be a good NFL RB if the more highly drafted RB is a guy who you consider as a greater risk to perform worse?

Are you the guy who reads the consumer report but still buys the Mazda?

Edited by cloppbeast
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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Are you the guy who reads the consumer report but still buys the Mazda?

 

I wish I knew what you were talking about, but I’m not sure you know yourself.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I wish I knew what you were talking about, but I’m not sure you know yourself.

It's not quite as insulting from the guy taking Henderson before Jacobs. Grain of salt, you know?

Edited by cloppbeast

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There is a dude who shall remain nameless who claimed in the Jacobs thread that JJ has no wiggle. So wrong. JJ isn't Barry or Saquan when it comes to lateral movement, but he does demonstrate some decent cuts/jukes/vision. A good amount actually, for a 225 lb power RB.

Henderson, OTOH, is a stiff when it comes to lateral movement. Compared to Jacobs and especially compared to CJ2k, Jamaal Chuck and other historical stud speedy RBs his size. Henderson does have crazy burst and top speed though. No denying that. He also has McVay, which is a HUGE plus.

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Really want to take him as my RB5 at #8 with Campbell/Deebo/Browns/Hardman still on the board.  He'll go to the Rams fan around 10 before my next picks at 11 and 12 which I can use to grab a couple of the WRs anyway.  Having trouble justifying it (don't have Gurley, not desperate for RB nor WR for that matter).

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49 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

It's not quite as insulting from the guy taking Henderson before Jacobs. Grain of salt, you know?

So this board is coming to people insulting others when they dont crown the groupthink rb1? 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

So this board is coming to people insulting others when they dont crown the groupthink rb1? 

 

:lol:  No worries.  The irony is deep in that one. I might be wrong.  I’ll own it if so.  Everyone is at times when it comes to FF, and especially in projecting transfer in rookies unless they are bonafide studs.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

So this board is coming to people insulting others when they dont crown the groupthink rb1? 

Its apparently also come to insulting others when you dont get their post. One is ok and the other isnt?

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7 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Its apparently also come to insulting others when you dont get their post. One is ok and the other isnt?

It's just sad to see guys hang up on others because they dont share your groupthink. Then use faulty logic and ultimately result to name calling. This board isn't about being right or wrong or whose is bigger. But then again... it is the shark pool. A reminder why I have so many on ignore. 

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13 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

:lol:  No worries.  The irony is deep in that one. I might be wrong.  I’ll own it if so.  Everyone is at times when it comes to FF, and especially in projecting transfer in rookies unless they are bonafide studs.

I just dont understand why it's not okay to go against the grain, have your own rankings, and stick by them when you have your draft

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

:lol:  No worries.  The irony is deep in that one. I might be wrong.  I’ll own it if so.  Everyone is at times when it comes to FF, and especially in projecting transfer in rookies unless they are bonafide studs.

I just dont understand why it's not okay to go against the grain, have your own rankings, and stick by them when you draft :shrug:

guys have all kinds of formulas/tiers/etc that they post on here. several of them are against the grain.  no one gets on them...

Edited by Dr. Dan

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1 minute ago, Dr. Dan said:

I just dont understand why it's not okay to go against the grain, have your own rankings, and stick by them when you have your draft

 

Who says it isn’t?  Adversarial discussion is enlightening and can be great fun.

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1 minute ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Who says it isn’t?  Adversarial discussion is enlightening and can be great fun.

I dont need everyone to agree with me, but I find it confusing why some say what they do, especially when they cherry pick their supportive statistics. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

I dont need everyone to agree with me, but I find it confusing why some say what they do, especially when they cherry pick their supportive statistics. 

Draft capital is the most accurate predictive tool we have. Using anecdotes to circumvent this tool in favor of your pet rb, that's cherry picking. I dont think this type of bucking the trend deserves a pat on the back.

Though, if somebody really knows their ####, maybe using draft status is just holding them back. In which case, he should probably stop wasting his time in the SP. Instead try working his way into an a front office somwhere, better use of his talents you know.

Edited by cloppbeast

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13 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Draft capital is the most accurate predictive tool we have. Using anecdotes to circumvent this tool in favor of your pet rb, that's cherry picking. I dont think this type of bucking the trend deserves a pat on the back.

 

I get that.  If you really don’t know what you’re looking at and you need something to make decisions for you, draft position is as good as anything else, and wrong just as often.

No one is looking for any pat on the back for being able to look beyond something as simplistic as the order that players were drafted, especially knowing how depressed RB value is in the NFL and how complex and multi-variabled their judgment criteria is on electing when to draft a player and when to take a player at a different position or allow the guy they really want to drop a little further in order to fill needs elsewhere.

It’s good that you know your limitations when you’re making your FF picks.  Knowing that, it’s kind of odd that you think everyone should think like you do and subject themselves to the same limitations.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I get that.  If you really don’t know what you’re looking at and you need something to make decisions for you, draft position is as good as anything else, and wrong just as often.

No one is looking for any pat on the back for being able to look beyond something as simplistic as the order that players were drafted, especially knowing how depressed RB value is in the NFL and how complex and multi-variabled their judgment criteria is on electing when to draft a player and when to take a player at a different position or allow the guy they really want to drop a little further in order to fill needs elsewhere.

It’s good that you know your limitations when you’re making your FF picks.  Knowing that, it’s kind of odd that you think everyone should think like you do and subject themselves to the same limitations.

I'm not in a position to tell anybody what to do. We are all just spit balling here.

Honestly, I'm not a big Jacob's guy. I had Henderson ranked higher. But I haven't tracked how well I judge this stuff. I know theres a significant difference in expected fantasy points between pick 20 something rb and pick 60 something rb. So I'm going to go with that.

If I can find the guy who loves Jacob's and trade him the 1.01, I do that. Nbd. That's preferable even. But I think it's just silly to take Henderson there, or even my guy Sanders. Maybe I'm not understanding correctly your position on the subject either.

Edited by cloppbeast
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17 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

draft position is as good as anything else, and wrong just as often.

Wrong just as often as what? If you have a better predictor, I'm all ears.

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21 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Wrong just as often as what? If you have a better predictor, I'm all ears.

Talent + Opportunity

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3 hours ago, slackjawedyokel said:

Really want to take him as my RB5 at #8 with Campbell/Deebo/Browns/Hardman still on the board.  He'll go to the Rams fan around 10 before my next picks at 11 and 12 which I can use to grab a couple of the WRs anyway.  Having trouble justifying it (don't have Gurley, not desperate for RB nor WR for that matter).

I think in the end you take the player you want the most. Who you think will be the best player for your team.

I couldn't pass on Deebo for Henderson and AJ Brown would also be tough although I hate his landing spot too.

If you like Henderson the best of these options the easiest way to justify it is the scarcity of the RB position. 

You control picks 11 and 12 so two of the WR you mentioned are likely to be there for you at those picks regardless of who you choose.

You know a Rans owner is likely to take him before your later picks.

Its a choice of getting 3 of those WR or only two of them.

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3 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Talent + Opportunity

That's vague. And a judgement not a predictor.

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

That's vague. And a judgement not a predictor.

That's the rub here.

Those that favor Henderson, like myself, believe that Henderson is more talented and has more opportunity(long term).

Those that favor Jacobs likely make the same arguments.   

Aside from superior measurables and production, there are not any quantifiable predictors that are going to lead one to draft Henderson over Jacobs.  You have to rely on subjective, qualitative analysis.  Just like we had to rely on qualitative analysis to know that Alvin Kamara was undervalued his rookie year.  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

Aside from superior measurables and production, there are not any quantifiable predictors that are going to lead one to draft Henderson over Jacobs.  You have to rely on subjective, qualitative analysis.  Just like we had to rely on qualitative analysis to know that Alvin Kamara was undervalued his rookie year.  

We all love using past examples of when our qualitive analysis beats the NFL draft. Not so much when it doesnt, we tend to forget those.

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4 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

I'm not in a position to tell anybody what to do. We are all just spit balling here.

Honestly, I'm not a big Jacob's guy. I had Henderson ranked higher. But I haven't tracked how well I judge this stuff. I know theres a significant difference in expected fantasy points between pick 20 something rb and pick 60 something rb. So I'm going to go with that.

If I can find the guy who loves Jacob's and trade him the 1.01, I do that. Nbd. That's preferable even. But I think it's just silly to take Henderson there, or even my guy Sanders. Maybe I'm not understanding correctly your position on the subject either.

You can do you. I wont take a guy I absolutely think will bust over a guy I think will be great just just because he was drafted before the guy I think will be amazing. that makes zero sense to me; to let groupthink determine who I will pick. I might be wrong, but that's ok

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

You can do you. I wont take a guy I absolutely think will bust over a guy I think will be great just just because he was drafted before the guy I think will be amazing. that makes zero sense to me; to let groupthink determine who I will pick. I might be wrong, but that's ok

I call it making the best decision, but you can call it groupthink if you want. The FF crowd isnt directly in line with draft status anyhow, so I dont think its accurate either.

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6 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I call it making the best decision, but you can call it groupthink if you want. 

you like sanders better but the FF group is making you take Jacobs because he was drafted before him. 

 

Daniel Jones was the last pick of round 3 in my league at qb5. Maybe he should have been qb2?

Someone earlier in this thread said to me, "dont pull a gettleman" however according to draft position gentleman made a great choice. I dont get it. Gettleman reached for his qb, but yet it's impossible to say a team reached for a rb, and the best rb went later to a better team?

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

you like sanders better but the FF group is making you take Jacobs because he was drafted before him.

I would call it the NFL FO community making me take Jacobs. I have Deebo Samuel and Marqise Brown ahead of Dk Metcalf, which goes against rookie ADP set be the FF community. 

Edited by cloppbeast

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Daniel Jones was the last pick of round 3 in my league at qb5. Maybe he should have been qb2?

Thats my take on it. But you also have a lot of people questioning the Jones pick. They might make an "adjusted draft status", if you will, based on where he should have went.

I will say this: the difference between QB taken 6 vs 16 is a lot less than rb taken 20 vs 65.

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5 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

I would call it the NFL FO community making me take Jacobs. I have Deebo Samuel and Marqise Brown ahead of Dk Metcalf, which goes against rookie ADP set be the FF community. 

why even rank players, or even form an opinion on them if ADP determines who you pick

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